175 40.
IMPOR
t
= u + u
1
INFLASI
t
+ u
2
KURS
t
+ u
3
POP
t
+ u
4
u D98 +
5
IMPOR
t-1
+ u 41.
PDB
21t t
= CONRT
t
+ INV
t
+ GOVEXP
t
+ EKS
t
- IMP 42.
RPDB
t t
= PDB
t
100IHK 43.
GROWTH
t t
= RPDB
t
– RPDB
t-1
RPDB
t-1
44. PDBKPT
100
t
= PDB
t
POP 45.
KURS
t t
= v + v
1
IHK
t
+ v
2
CADEV
t
+ v
3
D9799 + v
4
KURS
t-1
+ u 46.
IHK
22t t
= w + w
1
SKBG
t
+ w
2
UANGBR
t
+ w
3
AVHJTL
t
+ w
4
PBBM
t
w +
5
KURS
t
+ w
6
D98 + w
7
D02 + w
8
D05 + w
9
IHK
t-1
+ u 47.
INFLASI
23t t
= IHK
t
– IHK
t-1
IHK
t-1
48. SKBG
100
t
= x + x
1
INFLASI
t
+ x
2
D9799 + x
3
SKBG
t-1
+ u
24t
VII. Blok Tenaga Kerja
49. STK
t
= y + y
1
RUPH
t
+ y
2
POP
t
+ y
3
DBLJLAIN
t
+ y
4
D04 + y
5
y D09 +
6
STK
t-1
+ u 50.
DTK
25t t
= z + z
1
RUPH
t
+ z
2
PDB
t
+ z
3
D9799 + u 51.
UNEMPL
26t t
= STK
t
– DTK
t
52. RUPH
t
= aa + aa
1
STK
t-1
+ aa
2
DDTK
t
+ aa
3
D98 + aa
4
RUPH
t-1
+ u
27t
VIII. Blok Kemiskinan
53. MISKOTA
t
= ab + ab
1
INFLASI
t
+ ab
2
RUPH
t
+ ab
3
UNEMPL
t
ab +
4
D9799 + u 54.
MISDESA
28t t
= ac + ac
1
INFLASI
t
+ ac
2
GOVEXP
t
+ ac
3
UNEMPL
t
ac +
5
D9799 + ac
6
MISDESA
t-1
+ u 55. PMISKIN
29t t
= MISKOTA
t
+ MISDESA 56. TMISKIN
t t
= MISKOTA
t
+ MISDESA
t
POP
t
100
176
Lampiran 3. Prog ram Estimasi Model Subsidi Harga Listrik mengg unakan Metode 2SLS dan Prosedur SYSLIN denga n Program
SASETS versi 9.1
options nodate nonumber; LIBNAME IN C:\Disertasi;
data datapln; set in.pln;
Creating Variable; PRODSDR
= TLSDR+TLSEWA; PRODTL
= PRODSDR+TLBELI; TLJUAL
= CLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH; SUSUT
= PRODTL-TLJUAL-CLISDR; AVHJTL
= HJTLRTCLISRT + HJTLINDCLISIND + HJTLOTHCLISOTH CLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH;
BPP = BOPTLJUAL1000;
HJTLRT = BPP1+m100-SUBPRT;
HJTLIND = BPP1+m100-SUBPIND;
HJTLOTH = BPP1+m100-SUBPOTH;
PENPEM = PENPJK+PENNPJK;
CLAIN = CPLHR+CPGW+CSUSUT+COTH;
CBBM = QBBMPBBM1000000;
CBTB = QBTBPBTB1000000;
CGAS = QGASPGAS1000000;
PENPEM = PENPJK + PENNPJK;
SUBRT = SUBPRT CLISRT1000;
SUBIND = SUBPIND CLISIND1000;
SUBOTH = SUBPOTH CLISOTH1000;
SUBLSTR = SUBRT + SUBIND + SUBOTH;
GOVEXP = SUBLSTR + BLJLAIN;
CONLIS = HJTLRTCLISRT+HJTLINDCLISIND+
HJTLOTHCLISOTH1000; CONRT
= CONLIS + CONLAIN; PDB
= CONRT + INV + GOVEXP + EKSPOR - IMPOR; RPDB
= PDB100IHK; PDBKPT
= PDBPOP1000; PMISKIN
= MISKOTA + MISDESA; TMISKIN
= MISKOTA+MISDESAPOP100; UNEMPL
= STK-DTK; PDBL
= PDB-PDBI;
if tahun=1998 then D98=1; else D98=0;
if tahun=2008 then D08=1; else D08=0;
if tahun=2005 then D05=1; else D05=0;
if tahun=2004 then D04=1; else D04=0;
if tahun=2009 then D09=1; else D09=0;
if tahun=1997 or tahun=1998 or tahun=1999 then D9799=1; else D9799=0;
if tahun=2002 then D02=1; else D02=0;
177
LCLISRT = lagclisrt;
LCLISIND = lagclisind;
LCLISOTH = lagclisoth;
LBOP = lagbop;
LPBBM = lagpbbm;
LPBTB = lagpbtb;
LPGAS = lagpgas;
LQBBM = lagqbbm;
LQBTB = lagqbtb;
LQGAS = lagqgas;
LQBBM = lagqbbm;
LQBTB = lagqbtb;
LQGAS = lagqgas;
LPDB = lagpdb;
LKURS = lagkurs;
LIHK = lagihk;
LTLBELI = lagtlbeli;
LPRODSDR = lagprodsdr;
LMISKOTA = lagmiskota;
LMISDESA = lagmisdesa;
LSUBPRT = lagsubprt;
LSUBPIND = lagsubpind;
LSUBPOTH = lagsubpoth;
LPENPJK = lagpenpjk;
LSTK = lagstk;
LDTK = lagdtk;
LRUPH = lagruph;
LRPDB = lagrpdb;
INFLASI = IHK-LIHKLIHK100;
GROWTH = RPDB-LRPDBLRPDB100;
DDTK = difdtk;
DSTK = difstk;
LBLJLAIN = lagbljlain;
DBLJLAIN = difbljlain;
LCONLAIN = lagconlain;
LINV = laginv;
LEKSPOR = lagekspor;
LIMPOR = lagimpor;
LSKBG = lagskbg;
run; proc syslin 2sls data=datapln out=hasil;
endogenous prodsdr qbbm qbtb qgas pbbm pbtb pgas cbbm cbtb cgas
tlbeli prodtl bop bpp clisrt clisind clisoth tljual susut subprt subpind subpoth subrt subind suboth
sublstr hjtlrt hjtlind hjtloth avhjtl penpjk penpem bljlain govexp conlis conlain conrt inv kspor impor pdb
rpdb growth pdbkpt kurs ihk inflasi skbg stk dtk unempl ruph miskota misdesa pmiskin tmiskin;
instruments pennpjk pop pdbi pdbl cplhr clain icp pdbtb pdgas clisdr dbljlain cadev uangbr ddtk lclisrt lclisind
lclisoth lbop lpbbm lpbtb lpgas lqbbm lqbtb lqgas lkurs lihk lmiskota lmisdesa lpenpjk lbljlain lstk ldtk lruph
lconlain linv lekspor limpor lskbg d98 d08 d05 d09 d9799 d02 d04;
178
PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL; BLOK PRODUKSI;
1. NILAI PRODUKSI; prod_sdr
: model prodsdr = qbbm qbtb qgas lprodsdr dw;
q_bbm : model qbbm
= pbbm prodsdr d08 lqbbm dw; q_btb
: model qbtb = pbtb prodsdr pbbm lqbtbdw;
q_gas : model qgas
= pgas prodsdr qbbm qbtb d9799dw; p_bbm
: model pbbm = icp kurs d08 lpbbm dw;
p_btb : model pbtb
= pdbtb kurs pbbm lpbtbdw; p_gas
: model pgas = pdgas kurs pbbm d98 d09 lpgas dw;
tl_beli : model tlbeli
= tljual susut d08 ltlbeli dw; 2. BIAYA OPERASIONAL;
biaya_op : model bop
= tlbeli cbbm cbtb cgas clain d08 lbop dw;
BLOK CLISUMSI; kons_rt
: model clisrt = hjtlrt pdbkpt pelrt d98 lclisrt
dw; kons_ind
: model clisind = hjtlind pdbi pelind d98 d09
lclisind dw; kons_oth
: model clisoth = hjtloth pdbl peloth d05 d08 dw;
BLOK KEUANGAN PEMERINTAH; pen_pjk
: model penpjk = lpdb inflasi d98 lpenpjkdw; blj_lain
: model bljlain = penpem ihk d09 lbljlaindw; BLOK SUBSIDI;
subprt : model subprt
= penpem d08 lsubprt dw; subpind
: model subpind = penpem d08 lsubpind dw;
subpoth : model subpoth
= penpem d08 lsubpoth dw; BLOK INDIKATOR EKONOMI;
conlain : model conlain = pdbkpt inflasi d98 d08
lconlaindw; investasi
: model inv = pdb skbg d04 linv dw;
ekspor : model ekspor
= kurs d98 lekspordw; impor
: model impor = inflasi kurs pop d98 limpordw;
nil_tkr : model kurs
= ihk cadev d9799 lkursdw; ihk
: model ihk = skbg uangbr avhjtl pbbm kurs d98
d05 d02 lihkdw; skbg
: model skbg = inflasi d9799 lskbgdw;
BLOK TK; sup_tk
: model stk = ruph pop dbljlain d04 d09 lstkdw; dem_tk
: model dtk = ruph pdb d9799 dw; umr
: model ruph = lstk ddtk d98 lruph dw; BLOK KEMISKINAN;
mis_kota : model miskota
= inflasi ruph unempl d9799 dw; mis_desa
: model misdesa = inflasi govexp unempl d9799
lmisdesa dw; PERSAMAAN IDENTITAS;
identity CBBM
= CBBM + 0;
identity CBTB = CBTB + 0;
identity CGAS = CGAS + 0;
identity PRODTL = PRODSDR + TLBELI;
179
identity BPP = BPP + 0;
identity TLJUAL = CLISRT + CLISIND + CLISOTH;
identity SUSUT = PRODTL - TLJUAL - CLISDR;
identity SUBRT = SUBRT + 0;
identity SUBIND = SUBIND + 0;
identity SUBOTH = SUBOTH + 0;
identity SUBLSTR = SUBRT + SUBIND + SUBOTH; identity HJTLRT
= HJTLRT + 0; identity HJTLIND = HJTLIND + 0;
identity HJTLOTH = HJTLOTH + 0; identity AVHJTL = AVHJTL + 0;
identity PENPEM = PENPJK + PENNPJK;
identity GOVEXP = SUBLSTR + BLJLAIN; identity CONLIS = CONLIS + 0;
identity CONRT = CONLIS + CONLAIN;
identity PDB = CONRT + INV + GOVEXP + EKSPOR - IMPOR;
identity GROWTH = GROWTH + 0;
identity PDBKPT = PDBKPT + 0;
identity INFLASI = INFLASI + 0; identity UNEMPL = STK - DTK;
identity PMISKIN = MISKOTA + MISDESA; identity TMISKIN = TMISKIN + 0;
run;
180
Lampiran 4. Hasil Estimasi Model Subsidi Harga Listrik mengg unakan Metode 2SLS dan Pros edur SYSLIN denga n Program
SASETS versi 9.1
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Mo del PROD_ SDR
De pendent Variabl e PROD SDR La bel pr od list sdr
An alysis of Vari ance Sum of Mean
Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F Mode l 4 1.422 E10 3.5541E9 68 8.31 .0001
Erro r 15 77453 435 5163562 Corr ected To tal 19 1.429 E10
Root MSE 2 272.347 31 R -Square 0 .99458 Depe ndent M ean 8 3319.85 00 A dj R-Sq 0 .99314
Coef f Var 2.727 26
Pa rameter Estima tes Paramet er St andard Vari able
Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l Intercep t 1 9012.0 79 38 64.860 2 .33 0.0341 Inte rcept
QBBM 1 0.0002 48 0. 000592 0 .42 0.6814 kons BBM QBTB 1 0.0014 61 0. 000641 2 .28 0.0378 kons batu b ara
QGAS 1 0.0235 78 0. 009956 2 .37 0.0317 kons gas al am LPRODSDR 1 0.6250 91 0. 134072 4 .66 0.0003 lag prod li st sdr
Durb in-Watso n 2.9 64902 Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 56325 The SA S Syste m
Th e SYSLI N Proce dure T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion
Model Q_BB M Depende nt Vari able QBB M
Label kons BB M An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 4 1.174 E14 2.934E13 2 5.99 .0001 Erro r 15 1.693 E13 1.129E12
Corr ected To tal 19 1.343 E14
Root MSE 1 062363. 20 R -Square 0 .87393 Depe ndent M ean 6 769845. 53 A dj R-Sq 0 .84031
Coef f Var 15.692 58 Pa rameter Estima tes
Paramet er St andard Vari able Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l
Intercep t 1 35351. 62 1 715819 0 .02 0.9838 Inte rcept PBBM 1 -59.60 42 40 6.5272 -0 .15 0.8854 harg a bbm
PRODSDR 1 18.005 78 17 .69056 1 .02 0.3249 prod list s dr
D08 1 942261 .9 1 675313 0 .56 0.5821 2008 LQBBM 1 0.8128 56 0. 251698 3 .23 0.0056 lag kons BB M
Durb in-Watso n 1.3 84334 Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n 0. 28658
181
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Mo del Q _BTB
De pendent Variabl e QBTB La bel ko ns batu bara
An alysis of Vari ance Sum of Mean
Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F Mode l 4 7.341 E14 1.835E14 30 6.41 .0001
Erro r 15 8.984 E12 5.989E11 Corr ected To tal 19 7.431 E14
Root MSE 7 73904.6 37 R -Square 0 .98791 Depe ndent M ean 1 3092044 .9 A dj R-Sq 0 .98469
Coef f Var 5.911 26 Pa rameter Estima tes
Paramet er St andard Vari able Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l
Intercep t 1 -23018 71 95 6750.1 -2 .41 0.0295 Inte rcept PBTB 1 -891.9 32 22 41.920 -0 .40 0.6964 harg a batub ara
PRODSDR 1 105.13 71 30 .94884 3 .40 0.0040 prod list s dr
PBBM 1 148.71 85 18 4.1099 0 .81 0.4318 harg a bbm LQBTB 1 0.5387 98 0. 174144 3 .09 0.0074 lag kons ba tu bara
Durb in-Watso n 2.1 77113 Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 14084
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion
Mo del Q_ GAS De pendent Variabl e Q GAS
La bel ko ns gas a lam An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 5 1.369 E11 2.737E10 1 3.30 .0001 Erro r 14 2.881 E10 2.0578E9
Corr ected To tal 19 1.657 E11
Root MSE 4 5362.94 53 R -Square 0 .82611 Depe ndent M ean 1 89791.0 25 A dj R-Sq 0 .76400
Coef f Var 23.901 52 Pa rameter Estima tes
Paramet er St andard Vari able Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l
Intercep t 1 7043.2 93 90 292.91 0 .08 0.9389 Inte rcept PGAS 1 -4.757 30 2. 406312 -1 .98 0.0681 harg a gas a lam
PRODSDR 1 8.0810 43 2. 823738 2 .86 0.0126 prod list s dr QBBM 1 -0.043 89 0. 009903 -4 .43 0.0006 kons BBM
QBTB 1 -0.007 30 0. 015428 -0 .47 0.6436 kons batu b ara D9799 1 -37568 .6 32 424.68 -1 .16 0.2660 1997 -1999
Durb in-Watso n 2. 72214
Numb er of Ob servati ons 20 Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 36128
182
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Model P_BB M
Dependen t Varia ble PBB M
Label harga bb m An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 4 1.045 3E8 26132254 15 8.47 .0001 Erro r 15 2473 538 164902.5
Corr ected To tal 19 1.0 7E8 Root MSE 406.081 89 R -Square 0 .97688
Depe ndent M ean 2 044.933 29 A dj R-Sq 0 .97072 Coef f Var 19.857 95
Pa rameter Estima tes Paramet er St andard Vari able
Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l Intercep t 1 -988.9 33 24 5.8773 -4 .02 0.0011 Inte rcept
ICP 1 66.374 29 9. 231450 7 .19 .0001 harg my Ind onesia KURS 1 0.0241 72 0. 034226 0 .71 0.4909 RpU S
D08 1 1089.3 09 54 0.0136 2 .02 0.0619 2008
LPBBM 1 0.2377 59 0. 088856 2 .68 0.0173 lag harga b bm Durb in-Watso n 2.5 59031
Numb er of Ob servati ons 20 Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0 .2855
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion
Mo del P _BTB De pendent Variabl e PBTB
La bel ha rga batu bara An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean
Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F Mode l 4 69755 2.4 174388.1 5 1.33 .0001
Erro r 15 50965 .11 3397.674 Corr ected To tal 19 74851 7.5
Root MSE 58.289 57 R -Square 0 .93191 Depe ndent M ean 226.380 42 A dj R-Sq 0 .91376
Coef f Var 25.748 50 Pa rameter Estima tes
Paramet er St andard Vari able Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l
Intercep t 1 -113.3 02 13 3.5845 -0 .85 0.4097 Inte rcept PDBTB 1 2.5882 17 3. 164666 0 .82 0.4262 harg a dunia btbara
KURS 1 0.0108 02 0. 008323 1 .30 0.2139 RpU S
PBBM 1 0.0192 97 0. 011534 1 .67 0.1150 harg a bbm LPBTB 1 0.6019 05 0. 229380 2 .62 0.0192 lag harga b atubara
Durb in-Watso n 2.4 66728 Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 29173
183
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Mo del P _GAS
De pendent Variabl e PGAS La bel ha rga gas alam
An alysis of Vari ance Sum of Mean
Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F Mode l 6 2.293 2E9 3.822E8 6 0.29 .0001
Erro r 13 82412 937 6339457 Corr ected To tal 19 2.375 6E9
Root MSE 2 517.827 78 R -Square 0 .96531 Depe ndent M ean 1 9398.40 96 A dj R-Sq 0 .94930
Coef f Var 12.979 56 Pa rameter Estima tes
Paramet er St andard Vari able Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l
Intercep t 1 -957.0 21 19 91.330 -0 .48 0.6388 Inte rcept PDGAS 1 763.61 72 12 24.532 0 .62 0.5437 PDGA S
KURS 1 0.1071 65 0. 622349 0 .17 0.8659 RpU S
PBBM 1 0.0422 18 1. 146289 0 .04 0.9712 harg a bbm D98 1 19135. 55 42 32.322 4 .52 0.0006 1998
D09 1 8717.0 81 38 44.077 2 .27 0.0410 2009 LPGAS 1 0.8572 25 0. 174680 4 .91 0.0003 lag harga g as alam
Durb in-Watso n 1.6 71566
Numb er of Ob servati ons 20 Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n 0.0 33906
The SA S Syste m
Th e SYSLI N Proce dure T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion
M odel TL_B ELI D ependent Variab le TLB ELI
L abel l istrik b eli
An alysis of Vari ance Sum of Mean
Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F Mode l 4 3.530 4E9 8.8259E8 50 0.23 .0001
Erro r 15 26465 885 1764392 Corr ected To tal 19 3.556 8E9
Root MSE 1 328.304 31 R -Square 0 .99256 Depe ndent M ean 1 4704.95 35 A dj R-Sq 0 .99057
Coef f Var 9.033 04
Pa rameter Estima tes Paramet er St andard Vari able
Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l
Intercep t 1 -3780. 01 15 51.305 -2 .44 0.0278 Inte rcept TLJUAL 1 0.0465 45 0. 033446 1 .39 0.1843 tota l list terjual
SUSUT 1 0.3227 28 0. 153609 2 .10 0.0530 susu t tng l istrik D08 1 -2239. 34 15 05.818 -1 .49 0.1577 2008
LTLBELI 1 0.8510 06 0. 080665 10 .55 .0001 lag list be li
Durb in-Watso n 2.0 06003 Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n - 0.039
184
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Mo del BIAY A_OP
De pendent Variabl e BOP La bel to tal biay a op
An alysis of Vari ance Sum of Mean
Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 7 5.353 E10 7.6473E9 364 5.08 .0001 Erro r 12 25175 690 2097974
Corr ected To tal 19 5.356 E10 Root MSE 1 448.438 52 R -Square 0 .99953
Depe ndent M ean 5 2073.75 01 A dj R-Sq 0 .99926 Coef f Var 2.781 51
Pa rameter Estima tes Paramet er St andard Vari able
Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l
Intercep t 1 -937.2 26 69 7.7194 -1 .34 0.2040 Inte rcept TLBELI 1 0.7311 74 0. 198830 3 .68 0.0032 list rik bel i
CBBM 1 0.9694 35 0. 055410 17 .50 .0001 kons bbm CBTB 1 1.1977 97 0. 447581 2 .68 0.0202 kons batuba ra
CGAS 1 1.5838 87 0. 252380 6 .28 .0001 kons gas al am
CLAIN 1 0.8083 36 0. 170700 4 .74 0.0005 peng lainny a D08 1 5086.9 99 28 86.486 1 .76 0.1034 2008
LBOP 1 0.0010 61 0. 053862 0 .02 0.9846 lag total b iaya op Durb in-Watso n 2.2 11091
Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 11614 The SA S Syste m
Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Mo del KON S_RT
De pendent Variabl e CL ISRT La bel ko ns list ruta
An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 5 4.227 6E9 8.4552E8 282 1.33 .0001 Erro r 14 4195 622 299687.3
Corr ected To tal 19 4.231 8E9
Root MSE 547.437 02 R -Square 0 .99901 Depe ndent M ean 3 1513.36 95 A dj R-Sq 0 .99865
Coef f Var 1.737 16 Pa rameter Estima tes
Paramet er St andard Vari able Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l
Intercep t 1 -1009. 26 92 2.8925 -1 .09 0.2926 Inte rcept HJTLRT 1 -2.014 47 2. 019083 -1 .00 0.3354 TDL untuk r uta
PDBKPT 1 0.4631 04 0. 110181 4 .20 0.0009 PDB per kap ita
PELRT 1 0.5364 86 0. 155016 3 .46 0.0038 jm p el ruta D98 1 -922.6 94 61 5.1848 -1 .50 0.1559 1998
LCLISRT 1 0.5112 89 0. 160374 3 .19 0.0066 lag kons li st ruta Durb in-Watso n 2.3 19974
Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 16621
185
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Mode l KO NS_IND
Depe ndent Va riable C LISIND
Labe l kons list in dustri An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 6 2.103 9E9 3.5064E8 34 0.82 .0001 Erro r 13 13374 742 1028826
Corr ected To tal 19 2.117 2E9 Root MSE 1 014.310 77 R -Square 0 .99368
Depe ndent M ean 3 3901.03 48 A dj R-Sq 0 .99077 Coef f Var 2.991 98
Pa rameter Estima tes Paramet er St andard Vari able
Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l Intercep t 1 -1958. 22 38 22.588 -0 .51 0.6171 Inte rcept
HJTLIND 1 -4.829 33 5. 176824 -0 .93 0.3679 TDL untuk i ndustri PDBI 1 0.0038 27 0. 001513 2 .53 0.0251 PDB sek ind
PELIND 1 158.14 25 13 4.7769 1 .17 0.2617 jm p el indu stri
D98 1 -4582. 81 14 50.471 -3 .16 0.0075 1998 D09 1 -4979. 80 12 10.197 -4 .11 0.0012 2009
LCLISIND 1 0.9009 84 0. 150516 5 .99 .0001 lag kons li st ind Durb in-Watso n 2.1 49988
Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 09542 The SA S Syste m
Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Mode l KON S_OTH
Depe ndent Va riable CL ISOTH Labe l kons list pl lain
An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 5 1.798 8E9 3.5975E8 67 5.23 .0001 Erro r 14 7458 993 532785.2
Corr ected To tal 19 1.806 2E9 Root MSE 729.921 37 R -Square 0 .99587
Depe ndent M ean 1 7043.13 31 A dj R-Sq 0 .99440 Coef f Var 4.282 79
Pa rameter Estima tes Paramet er St andard Vari able
Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l Intercep t 1 -335.4 56 79 2.7118 -0 .42 0.6786 Inte rcept
HJTLOTH 1 -1.086 05 3. 005888 -0 .36 0.7233 TDL u pel l ain PDBL 1 0.0036 22 0. 000382 9 .47 .0001 PDB sek lai n
PELOTH 1 6.6540 27 1. 008347 6 .60 .0001 jm p el lain nya D05 1 1514.4 73 79 5.8041 1 .90 0.0778 2005
D08 1 1082.1 57 79 6.4508 1 .36 0.1957 2008
Durb in-Watso n 1.5 34954 Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n 0.2 32058
186
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion M odel PEN_ PJK
D ependent Variab le PEN PJK
L abel p en dr pa jak An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 4 1.015 E12 2.538E11 24 1.87 .0001 Erro r 15 1.574 E10 1.0494E9
Corr ected To tal 19 1.031 E12 Root MSE 3 2394.27 16 R -Square 0 .98473
Depe ndent M ean 2 37399.2 65 A dj R-Sq 0 .98066 Coef f Var 13.645 48
Pa rameter Estima tes Paramet er St andard Vari able
Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l Intercep t 1 -45462 .8 22 203.79 -2 .05 0.0585 Inte rcept
LPDB 1 0.1019 52 0. 034275 2 .97 0.0094 lag PDB INFLASI 1 4557.8 19 22 22.092 2 .05 0.0581 tk i nflasi
D98 1 -3199 36 15 6848.5 -2 .04 0.0594 1998
LPENPJK 1 0.3228 97 0. 275790 1 .17 0.2599 lag pen pjk Durb in-Watso n 2. 13074
Numb er of Ob servati ons 20 Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n - 0.088
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion
Mod el BLJ _LAIN Dep endent V ariable BL JLAIN
Lab el blj sel sub list An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean
Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F Mode l 4 4.418 E11 1.104E11 253 2.66 .0001
Erro r 15 6.541 3E8 43608490 Corr ected To tal 19 4.424 E11
Root MSE 6 603.672 48 R -Square 0 .99852 Depe ndent M ean 1 56498.0 97 A dj R-Sq 0 .99813
Coef f Var 4.219 65 Pa rameter Estima tes
Paramet er St andard Vari able Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l
Intercep t 1 -4007. 71 43 28.064 -0 .93 0.3691 Inte rcept PENPEM 1 0.0363 47 0. 023956 1 .52 0.1500 pen pemerin tah
IHK 1 193.88 56 82 .94364 2 .34 0.0337 inde ks harg a kons
D09 1 103212 .5 73 36.757 14 .07 .0001 2009 LBLJLAIN 1 0.9249 40 0. 045025 20 .54 .0001 lag blj lai n
Durb in-Watso n 2.5 84694 Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 29662
187
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Mode l SUBPRT
Depe ndent Va riable SUBPRT
Labe l sub per kWh u ruta An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 3 75315 3.7 251051.2 7 7.05 .0001 Erro r 16 52134 .57 3258.411
Corr ected To tal 19 80528 8.3 Root MSE 57.082 49 R -Square 0 .93526
Depe ndent M ean 153.444 42 A dj R-Sq 0 .92312 Coef f Var 37.200 76
Pa rameter Estima tes Paramet er St andard Vari able
Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l Intercep t 1 -30.68 97 21 .47345 -1 .43 0.1722 Inte rcept
PENPEM 1 0.0004 38 0. 000101 4 .31 0.0005 pen pemerin tah D08 1 189.67 83 70 .65610 2 .68 0.0163 2008
LSUBPRT 1 0.1985 39 0. 155476 1 .28 0.2198 lag sub per
kWh u ruta Durb in-Watso n 1.6 66554
Numb er of Ob servati ons 20 Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n 0.1 63421
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion
Mode l SU BPIND Depe ndent Va riable SU BPIND
Labe l sub per kWh u ind An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean
Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F Mode l 3 63792 3.9 212641.3 9 9.34 .0001
Erro r 16 34250 .25 2140.641 Corr ected To tal 19 67217 4.2
Root MSE 46.267 06 R -Square 0 .94905 Depe ndent M ean 128.646 74 A dj R-Sq 0 .93949
Coef f Var 35.964 42 Pa rameter Estima tes
Paramet er St andard Vari able Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l
Intercep t 1 -39.89 37 17 .48892 -2 .28 0.0366 Inte rcept PENPEM 1 0.0004 21 0. 000077 5 .48 .0001 pen pemerin tah
D08 1 209.79 06 56 .88703 3 .69 0.0020 2008
LSUBPIND 1 0.1343 40 0. 130269 1 .03 0.3178 lag sub per kWh u ind
Durb in-Watso n 2.0 91138 Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 04808
188
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Model SUBPOT H
Depend ent Vari able SUBPOT H
Label sub pe r kWh u pel lai n An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 3 40632 3.8 135441.3 6 1.57 .0001 Erro r 16 35194 .17 2199.635
Corr ected To tal 19 44151 8.0 Root MSE 46.900 27 R -Square 0 .92029
Depe ndent M ean 17.384 00 A dj R-Sq 0 .90534 Coef f Var 269.789 90
Pa rameter Estima tes Paramet er St andard Vari able
Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l Intercep t 1 -104.6 86 25 .08724 -4 .17 0.0007 Inte rcept
PENPEM 1 0.0003 27 0. 000072 4 .57 0.0003 pen pemerin tah D08 1 202.15 26 56 .00976 3 .61 0.0024 2008
LSUBPOTH 1 0.1103 61 0. 146312 0 .75 0.4616 lag sub per
kWh u lain Durb in-Watso n 1. 67453
Numb er of Ob servati ons 20 Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n 0.1 38067
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion
Mode l C ONLAIN Depe ndent Va riable C ONLAIN
Labe l kons ruta se l list An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean
Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F Mode l 5 2.211 E13 4.421E12 136 5.05 .0001
Erro r 14 4.534 E10 3.2389E9 Corr ected To tal 19 2.215 E13
Root MSE 5 6911.47 01 R -Square 0 .99795 Depe ndent M ean 1 237937. 52 A dj R-Sq 0 .99722
Coef f Var 4.597 28 Pa rameter Estima tes
Paramet er St andard Vari able Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l
Intercep t 1 -13586 .9 41 899.65 -0 .32 0.7505 Inte rcept PDBKPT 1 110.04 89 57 .14134 1 .93 0.0747 PDB per kap ita
INFLASI 1 -26.58 94 42 25.152 -0 .01 0.9951 tk i nflasi
D98 1 54503. 53 28 0769.4 0 .19 0.8489 1998 D08 1 133465 .5 65 363.87 2 .04 0.0605 2008
LCONLAIN 1 0.1902 18 0. 481695 0 .39 0.6989 lag kons la in Durb in-Watso n 1.5 58858
Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n 0.1 57886
189
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Model INVESTA S
Depende nt Vari able IN V
Label IN V An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 4 6.396 E12 1.599E12 51 3.83 .0001 Erro r 15 4.668 E10 3.1119E9
Corr ected To tal 19 6.443 E12 Root MSE 5 5784.75 11 R -Square 0 .99275
Depe ndent M ean 5 53245.2 27 A dj R-Sq 0 .99082 Coef f Var 10.083 19
Pa rameter Estima tes Paramet er St andard Vari able
Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l Intercep t 1 49424. 32 49 992.16 0 .99 0.3385 Inte rcept
PDB 1 0.0721 85 0. 035463 2 .04 0.0599 prod dom br uto SKBG 1 -3763. 54 21 59.890 -1 .74 0.1019 suku bunga
D04 1 -1180 44 59 815.43 -1 .97 0.0672 2004
LINV 1 0.9177 95 0. 139370 6 .59 .0001 lag investa si Durb in-Watso n 2. 15814
Numb er of Ob servati ons 20 Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 09559
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion
M odel EKS POR D ependent Variab le EKS POR
L abel n ilai eks por An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean
Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F Mode l 3 4.487 E12 1.496E12 12 6.82 .0001
Erro r 16 1.887 E11 1.179E10 Corr ected To tal 19 4.676 E12
Root MSE 1 08598.6 98 R -Square 0 .95964 Depe ndent M ean 6 19228.6 65 A dj R-Sq 0 .95208
Coef f Var 17.537 74 Pa rameter Estima tes
Paramet er St andard Vari able Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l
Intercep t 1 -26942 .0 58 093.72 -0 .46 0.6491 Inte rcept KURS 1 13.103 76 12 .66881 1 .03 0.3164 RpU S
D98 1 253373 .3 12 2246.6 2 .07 0.0547 1998
LEKSPOR 1 0.9987 71 0. 097930 10 .20 .0001 lag ekspor Durb in-Watso n 2. 64545
Numb er of Ob servati ons 20 Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 37219
190
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Model IMPO R
Depende nt Vari able IMPO R
Label IMPO R An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 5 3.718 E12 7.436E11 5 7.03 .0001 Erro r 14 1.825 E11 1.304E10
Corr ected To tal 19 3.901 E12 Root MSE 1 14183.0 96 R -Square 0 .95320
Depe ndent M ean 5 38494.6 75 A dj R-Sq 0 .93649 Coef f Var 21.204 13
Pa rameter Estima tes Paramet er St andard Vari able
Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l Intercep t 1 -26418 34 1 294399 -2 .04 0.0606 Inte rcept
INFLASI 1 19088. 89 82 66.869 2 .31 0.0367 tk i nflasi KURS 1 -21.61 70 18 .65944 -1 .16 0.2660 RpU S
POP 1 13.558 90 7. 126591 1 .90 0.0779 jm p enduduk
D98 1 -11073 00 57 1956.2 -1 .94 0.0733 1998 LIMPOR 1 0.7375 83 0. 212300 3 .47 0.0037 lag impor
Durb in-Watso n 2.3 74911 Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 24298
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion
Model NIL_TK R Depende nt Vari able KUR S
Label RpUS An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 4 2.107 7E8 52693249 4 3.78 .0001 Erro r 15 18055 342 1203689
Corr ected To tal 19 2.288 3E8
Root MSE 1 097.127 84 R -Square 0 .92110 Depe ndent M ean 6 959.000 00 A dj R-Sq 0 .90006
Coef f Var 15.765 60 Pa rameter Estima tes
Paramet er St andard Vari able Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l
Intercep t 1 714.76 07 56 1.5794 1 .27 0.2225 Inte rcept IHK 1 33.140 76 16 .42903 2 .02 0.0619 inde ks harg a kons
CADEV 1 -0.061 75 0. 032571 -1 .90 0.0774 cada ngan de visa D9799 1 1467.3 04 70 7.3035 2 .07 0.0557 1997 -1999
LKURS 1 0.6651 05 0. 180595 3 .68 0.0022 lag RpUS Durb in-Watso n 2.4 16601
Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 21295
191
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Mode l IHK
Depe ndent Va riable IHK
Labe l inde ks harga kons An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 9 81592 .88 9065.875 238 9.11 .0001 Erro r 10 37.94 665 3.794665
Corr ected To tal 19 81630 .82 Root MSE 1.947 99 R -Square 0 .99954
Depe ndent M ean 111.094 97 A dj R-Sq 0 .99912 Coef f Var 1.753 45
Pa rameter Estima tes Paramet er St andard Vari able
Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l Intercep t 1 5.5637 70 3. 502250 1 .59 0.1432 Inte rcept
SKBG 1 -0.032 42 0. 166492 -0 .19 0.8495 suku bunga UANGBR 1 0.0167 41 0. 005972 2 .80 0.0187 uang bereda r
AVHJTL 1 0.0200 46 0. 014346 1 .40 0.1925 rata -rata h arga jua l
PBBM 1 0.0024 28 0. 000532 4 .57 0.0010 harg a bbm KURS 1 0.0020 50 0. 000375 5 .47 0.0003 RpU S
D98 1 23.000 31 5. 693268 4 .04 0.0024 1998 D05 1 12.939 38 2. 260037 5 .73 0.0002 2005
D02 1 4.2732 69 2. 210341 1 .93 0.0820 2002 LIHK 1 0.6149 20 0. 111328 5 .52 0.0003 lag IHK
Durb in-Watso n 2.2 47011 Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 18312
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Model SK BG
Dependen t Varia ble SK BG
Label suku bun ga An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 3 998.8 893 332.9631 2 3.29 .0001 Erro r 16 228.7 116 14.29447
Corr ected To tal 19 1227. 601 Root MSE 3.780 80 R -Square 0 .81369
Depe ndent M ean 14.888 00 A dj R-Sq 0 .77876
Coef f Var 25.394 97 Pa rameter Estima tes
Paramet er St andard Vari able Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l
Intercep t 1 2.8074 72 2. 344782 1 .20 0.2486 Inte rcept INFLASI 1 0.2906 01 0. 066540 4 .37 0.0005 tk i nflasi
D9799 1 3.1056 02 3. 458889 0 .90 0.3826 1997 -1999 LSKBG 1 0.5318 85 0. 140224 3 .79 0.0016 lag suku bu nga
Durb in-Watso n 1.2 05912 Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n 0.2 34993
192
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Model SUP_T K
Depende nt Vari able ST K
Label supp T K An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 6 2.502 2E9 4.1703E8 20 1.28 .0001 Erro r 13 26934 487 2071884
Corr ected To tal 19 2.529 1E9 Root MSE 1 439.403 91 R -Square 0 .98935
Depe ndent M ean 9 7691.56 01 A dj R-Sq 0 .98443 Coef f Var 1.473 42
Pa rameter Estima tes Paramet er St andard Vari able
Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l Intercep t 1 -35064 .0 21 130.04 -1 .66 0.1209 Inte rcept
RUPH 1 4.9196 88 3. 796366 1 .30 0.2175 upah riil POP 1 0.4628 34 0. 261332 1 .77 0.1000 jm p enduduk
DBLJLAIN 1 0.0149 04 0. 052786 0 .28 0.7821 seli sih blj lain
D04 1 -1837. 59 19 81.529 -0 .93 0.3706 2004 D09 1 -2603. 15 58 45.395 -0 .45 0.6634 2009
LSTK 1 0.3476 97 0. 350796 0 .99 0.3397 lag supp TK Durb in-Watso n 2.0 09544
Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 01301 The SA S Syste m
Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Model DEM_T K
Depende nt Vari able DT K Label dem T K
An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 3 1.416 2E9 4.7206E8 6 9.25 .0001 Erro r 16 1.090 6E8 6816339
Corr ected To tal 19 1.525 3E9 Root MSE 2 610.811 90 R -Square 0 .92850
Depe ndent M ean 9 0614.61 04 A dj R-Sq 0 .91509 Coef f Var 2.881 23
Pa rameter Estima tes Paramet er St andard Vari able
Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l Intercep t 1 86066. 35 41 17.284 20 .90 .0001 Inte rcept
RUPH 1 -8.628 50 6. 120316 -1 .41 0.1777 upah riil PDB 1 0.0045 86 0. 000332 13 .81 .0001 prod dom br uto
D9799 1 3177.5 72 16 98.668 1 .87 0.0798 1997 -1999 Durb in-Watso n 0.9 37812
Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n 0.3 89251
193
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Model UPA H
Dependen t Varia ble RUP H
Label upah rii l An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 4 15228 7.7 38071.92 1 6.66 .0001 Erro r 15 34273 .11 2284.874
Corr ected To tal 19 18656 0.8 Root MSE 47.800 36 R -Square 0 .81629
Depe ndent M ean 634.377 47 A dj R-Sq 0 .76730 Coef f Var 7.535 00
Pa rameter Estima tes Paramet er St andard Vari able
Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l Intercep t 1 263.22 30 13 3.7949 1 .97 0.0679 Inte rcept
LSTK 1 -0.001 67 0. 000994 -1 .68 0.1136 lag supp TK DDTK 1 0.0034 55 0. 006036 0 .57 0.5756 seli sh dem TK
D98 1 -297.8 11 57 .34981 -5 .19 0.0001 1998
LRUPH 1 0.8653 21 0. 125850 6 .88 .0001 lag upah ri il Durb in-Watso n 2.0 80801
Numb er of Ob servati ons 20 Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 12683
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion
Model MI S_KOTA Depen dent Var iable M ISKOTA
Label jm pe nd miski n kota An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean
Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F Mode l 4 97305 171 24326293 1 4.12 .0001
Erro r 15 25838 381 1722559 Corr ected To tal 19 1.231 4E8
Root MSE 1 312.462 84 R -Square 0 .79018 Depe ndent M ean 1 1811.80 89 A dj R-Sq 0 .73422
Coef f Var 11.111 45 Pa rameter Estima tes
Paramet er St andard Vari able Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l
Intercep t 1 10198. 97 26 94.021 3 .79 0.0018 Inte rcept INFLASI 1 33.651 09 23 .45146 1 .43 0.1718 tk i nflasi
RUPH 1 -3.895 11 3. 463192 -1 .12 0.2784 upah riil
UNEMPL 1 0.4307 85 0. 107619 4 .00 0.0012 tk p engangg uran D9799 1 4274.2 66 96 8.2795 4 .41 0.0005 1997 -1999
Durb in-Watso n 2.3 91084 Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 19787
194
The SA S Syste m Th e SYSLI N Proce dure
T wo-Stage Least Squares Estimat ion Model MI S_DESA
Depen dent Var iable M ISDESA
Label jm pe nd miski n desa An alysis of Vari ance
Sum of Mean Sour ce DF Squa res Square F V alue Pr F
Mode l 5 3.332 5E8 66650336 2 3.14 .0001 Erro r 14 40322 300 2880164
Corr ected To tal 19 3.735 7E8 Root MSE 1 697.104 68 R -Square 0 .89206
Depe ndent M ean 2 3809.35 11 A dj R-Sq 0 .85351 Coef f Var 7.127 89
Pa rameter Estima tes Paramet er St andard Vari able
Variable DF Estima te Error t Va lue P r |t| Labe l Intercep t 1 8359.4 62 22 79.957 3 .67 0.0025 Inte rcept
INFLASI 1 25.744 96 28 .46146 0 .90 0.3810 tk i nflasi GOVEXP 1 -0.006 16 0. 003101 -1 .99 0.0668 peng pem
UNEMPL 1 0.4353 92 0. 202403 2 .15 0.0494 tk p engangg uran
D9799 1 4623.4 63 14 21.270 3 .25 0.0058 1997 -1999 LMISDESA 1 0.5243 80 0. 118994 4 .41 0.0006 lag jml mis kin desa
Durb in-Watso n 2.5 55569 Numb er of Ob servati ons 20
Firs t-Order Autocor relatio n -0. 29591
195
Lampiran 5. Prog ram Estimasi Statistik D urbin-h me ngg unakan Metode OLS dan Pros edur AUTOREG denga n Prog ram SASETS
versi 9.1
options nodate nonumber; LIBNAME IN C:\Disertasi;
data datapln; set in.pln;
Creating Variable; PRODSDR
= TLSDR+TLSEWA; PRODTL
= PRODSDR+TLBELI; TLJUAL
= CLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH; SUSUT
= PRODTL-TLJUAL-CLISDR; BPP
= BOPTLJUAL1000; HJTLRT
= BPP1+m100-SUBPRT;
HJTLIND = BPP1+m100-SUBPIND;
HJTLOTH = BPP1+m100-SUBPOTH;
PENPEM = PENPJK+PENNPJK;
CLAIN = CPLHR+CPGW+CSUSUT+COTH;
CBBM = QBBMPBBM1000000;
CBTB = QBTBPBTB1000000;
CGAS = QGASPGAS1000000;
PENPEM = PENPJK + PENNPJK;
SUBRT = SUBPRT CLISRT1000;
SUBIND = SUBPIND CLISIND1000;
SUBOTH = SUBPOTH CLISOTH1000;
SUBLSTR = SUBRT + SUBIND + SUBOTH;
GOVEXP = SUBLSTR + BLJLAIN;
CONLIS = HJTLRTCLISRT+HJTLINDCLISIND+
HJTLOTHCLISOTH1000; CONRT
= CONLIS + CONLAIN; PDB
= CONRT + INV + GOVEXP + EKSPOR - IMPOR; RPDB
= PDB100IHK; PDBKPT
= PDBPOP1000; PMISKIN
= MISKOTA + MISDESA; TMISKIN
= MISKOTA+MISDESAPOP100; UNEMPL
= STK-DTK; PDBL
= PDB-PDBI;
if tahun=1998 then D98=1; else D98=0;
if tahun=2008 then D08=1; else D08=0;
if tahun=2005 then D05=1; else D05=0;
if tahun=2004 then D04=1; else D04=0;
if tahun=2009 then D09=1; else D09=0;
if tahun=1997 or tahun=1998 or tahun=1999 then D9799=1; else D9799=0;
if tahun=2002 then D02=1; else D02=0;
if tahun=1999 then Dxx=1; else Dxx=0;
196
LCLISRT = lagclisrt;
LCLISIND = lagclisind;
LCLISOTH = lagclisoth;
LHJTLRT = laghjtlrt;
LHJTLIND = laghjtlind;
LHJTLOTH = laghjtloth;
LBOP = lagbop;
LPBBM = lagpbbm;
LPBTB = lagpbtb;
LPGAS = lagpgas;
LQBBM = lagqbbm;
LQBTB = lagqbtb;
LQGAS = lagqgas;
LQBBM = lagqbbm;
LQBTB = lagqbtb;
LQGAS = lagqgas;
LPDB = lagpdb;
LKURS = lagkurs;
LIHK = lagihk;
LTLBELI = lagtlbeli;
LPRODSDR = lagprodsdr;
LMISKOTA = lagmiskota;
LMISDESA = lagmisdesa;
LSUBPRT = lagsubprt;
LSUBPIND = lagsubpind;
LSUBPOTH = lagsubpoth;
LPENPJK = lagpenpjk;
LSTK = lagstk;
LDTK = lagdtk;
LRUPH = lagruph;
LRPDB = lagrpdb;
INFLASI = IHK-LIHKLIHK100;
GROWTH = RPDB-LRPDBLRPDB100;
DDTK = difdtk;
DSTK = difstk;
LBLJLAIN = lagbljlain;
DBLJLAIN = difbljlain;
LCONLAIN = lagconlain;
LINV = laginv;
LEKSPOR = lagekspor;
LIMPOR = lagimpor;
LSKBG = lagskbg;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model prodsdr = qbbm qbtb qgas lprodsdrlagdep=lprodsdr;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model qbbm = pbbm prodsdr d08 lqbbmlagdep=lqbbm;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model qbtb = pbtb prodsdr pbbm lqbtblagdep=lqbtb;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model pbbm = icp kurs d08 lpbbmlagdep=lpbbm;
run;
197
proc autoreg data=datapln;
model pbtb = pdbtb kurs pbbm lpbtblagdep=lpbtb;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model pgas = pdgas kurs pbbm d98 d09 lpgas lagdep=lpgas;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model tlbeli = tljual susut d08 ltlbelilagdep=ltlbeli;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model bop = tlbeli cbbm cbtb cgas clain d08 lbop lagdep=lbop;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model clisrt = hjtlrt pdbkpt pelrt d98 lclisrtlagdep=lclisrt;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model clisind = hjtlind pdbi pelind d98 d09 lclisind lagdep=lclisind ;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model penpjk = lpdb inflasi d98 lpenpjklagdep=lpenpjk;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model bljlain = penpem ihk d09 lbljlainlagdep=lbljlain;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model subprt = penpem d08 lsubprtlagdep=lsubprt;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model subpind = penpem d08 lsubpindlagdep=lsubpind;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model subpoth = penpem d08 lsubpothlagdep=lsubpoth;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model conlain = pdbkpt inflasi d98 d08 lconlain lagdep=lconlain;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model inv = pdb skbg d04 linvlagdep=linv;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model ekspor = kurs d98 leksporlagdep=lekspor;
run;
198
proc autoreg data=datapln;
model impor = inflasi kurs pop d98 limporlagdep=limpor;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model kurs = ihk cadev d9799 lkurslagdep=lkurs;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model ihk = skbg uangbr avhjtl pbbm kurs d98 d05 d02 lihk lagdep=lihk;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model skbg = inflasi d9799 lskbglagdep=lskbg;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model stk = ruph pop dbljlain d04 d09 lstklagdep=lstk;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model ruph = lstk ddtk d98 lruphlagdep=lruph;
run; proc autoreg data=datapln;
model misdesa = inflasi govexp unempl d9799 lmisdesa lagdep=lmisdesa;
run;
199
Lampiran 6. Hasil Estimasi Statistik Durbin-h mengg unakan Metode OLS dan Pros edur AUTOREG denga n Program SASETS versi 9.1
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depende nt Vari able PRODSDR PRODSDR
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 774 53434.7 DFE 15
MSE 5163562 Roo t MSE 22 72 SBC 375 .125307 AIC 370.1466 45
Regress R-Squar e 0.9946 Tot al R-Squ are 0.99 46 Durbin h -3.1475 Pr h 0.00 08
Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label
Inte rcept 1 9012 3 865 2.33 0. 0341 QBBM 1 0.0 00248 0.000 592 0.42 0. 6814 QBBM
QBTB 1 0.0 01461 0.000 641 2.28 0. 0378 QBTB QGAS 1 0 .0236 0.009 956 2.37 0. 0317 QGAS
LPRO DSDR 1 0 .6251 0.1 341 4.66 0. 0003 The SA S Syste m
The AUTORE G Proce dure Depen dent Va riable QBBM
QBBM Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es
SSE 1.6 9292E13 DFE 15 MSE 1.1 2862E12 Roo t MSE 10623 63
SBC 621 .022818 AIC 616.0441 56 Regress R-Squar e 0.8739 Tot al R-Squ are 0.87 39
Durbins t 1.8593 Pr t 0.04 29 NOTE: Durbi n h can not be o btained . The t- statist ic is g iven.
Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label
Inte rcept 1 35352 1715 819 0.02 0. 9838 PBBM 1 -59 .6042 406.5 272 -0.15 0. 8854 PBBM
PROD SDR 1 18 .0058 17.6 906 1.02 0. 3249 PRODSDR D08 1 9 42262 1675 313 0.56 0. 5821
LQBB M 1 0 .8129 0.2 517 3.23 0. 0056
200
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depen dent Va riable QBTB QBTB
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 8.9 8393E12 DFE 15
MSE 5.9 8928E11 Roo t MSE 7739 05 SBC 608 .350719 AIC 603.3720 57
Regress R-Squar e 0.9879 Tot al R-Squ are 0.98 79 Durbin h -1.0041 Pr h 0.15 77
Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label
Inte rcept 1 -23 01871 956 750 -2.41 0. 0295 PBTB 1 -891 .9317 2 242 -0.40 0. 6964 PBTB
PROD SDR 1 105 .1371 30.9 488 3.40 0. 0040 PRODSDR PBBM 1 148 .7185 184.1 099 0.81 0. 4318 PBBM
LQBT B 1 0 .5388 0.1 741 3.09 0. 0074 The SA S Syste m
The AUTORE G Proce dure Depen dent Va riable PBBM
PBBM Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es
SSE 247 3537.52 DFE 15 MSE 164903 Roo t MSE 406.081 89
SBC 306 .244755 AIC 301.2660 93 Regress R-Squar e 0.9769 Tot al R-Squ are 0.97 69
Durbin h -1.3913 Pr h 0.08 21 Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e
Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label Inte rcept 1 -988 .9325 245.8 773 -4.02 0. 0011
ICP 1 66 .3743 9.2 315 7.19 . 0001 ICP KURS 1 0 .0242 0.0 342 0.71 0. 4909 KURS
D08 1 1089 540.0 136 2.02 0. 0619 LPBB M 1 0 .2378 0.0 889 2.68 0. 0173
201
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depen dent Va riable PBTB PBTB
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 509 65.1111 DFE 15
MSE 3398 Roo t MSE 58.289 57 SBC 228 .599489 AIC 223.6208 27
Regress R-Squar e 0.9319 Tot al R-Squ are 0.93 19 Durbins t -3.1931 Pr t 0.00 35
NOTE: Durbi n h can not be o btained . The t- statist ic is g iven. Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e
Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label Inte rcept 1 -113 .3018 133.5 845 -0.85 0. 4097
PDBT B 1 2 .5882 3.1 647 0.82 0. 4262 PDBTB KURS 1 0 .0108 0.008 323 1.30 0. 2139 KURS
PBBM 1 0 .0193 0.0 115 1.67 0. 1150 PBBM LPBT B 1 0 .6019 0.2 294 2.62 0. 0192
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depen dent Va riable PGAS PGAS
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 824 12937.3 DFE 13
MSE 6339457 Roo t MSE 25 18 SBC 382 .358082 AIC 375.3879 56
Regress R-Squar e 0.9653 Tot al R-Squ are 0.96 53 Durbin h 0.2429 Pr h 0.40 40
Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label
Inte rcept 1 -957 .0215 1 991 -0.48 0. 6388 PDGA S 1 763 .6172 1 225 0.62 0. 5437 PDGAS
KURS 1 0 .1072 0.6 223 0.17 0. 8659 KURS PBBM 1 0 .0422 1.1 463 0.04 0. 9712 PBBM
D98 1 19136 4 232 4.52 0. 0006 D09 1 8717 3 844 2.27 0. 0410
LPGA S 1 0 .8572 0.1 747 4.91 0. 0003
202
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depend ent Var iable TLBELI TLBELI
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 264 65885.2 DFE 15
MSE 1764392 Roo t MSE 13 28 SBC 353 .648899 AIC 348.6702 38
Regress R-Squar e 0.9926 Tot al R-Squ are 0.99 26 Durbin h -0.1870 Pr h 0.42 58
Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label
Inte rcept 1 -3780 1 551 -2.44 0. 0278 TLJU AL 1 0 .0465 0.0 334 1.39 0. 1843
SUSU T 1 0 .3227 0.1 536 2.10 0. 0530 SUSUT D08 1 -2239 1 506 -1.49 0. 1577
LTLB ELI 1 0 .8510 0.0 807 10.55 . 0001 The SA S Syste m
The AUTORE G Proce dure Depen dent Va riable BOP
BOP Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es
SSE 251 75689.7 DFE 12 MSE 2097974 Roo t MSE 14 48
SBC 361 .636542 AIC 353.6706 84 Regress R-Squar e 0.9995 Tot al R-Squ are 0.99 95
Durbin h -0.5352 Pr h 0.29 63 Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e
Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label Inte rcept 1 -937 .2259 697.7 194 -1.34 0. 2040
TLBE LI 1 0 .7312 0.1 988 3.68 0. 0032 TLBELI CBBM 1 0 .9694 0.0 554 17.50 . 0001
CBTB 1 1 .1978 0.4 476 2.68 0. 0202 CGAS 1 1 .5839 0.2 524 6.28 . 0001
CLAI N 1 0 .8083 0.1 707 4.74 0. 0005 D08 1 5087 2 886 1.76 0. 1034
LBOP 1 0.0 01061 0.0 539 0.02 0. 9846
203
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depend ent Var iable CLISRT CLISRT
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 419 5622.13 DFE 14
MSE 299687 Roo t MSE 547.437 02 SBC 319 .808333 AIC 313.833 94
Regress R-Squar e 0.9990 Tot al R-Squ are 0.99 90 Durbin h -1.0667 Pr h 0.14 31
Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label
Inte rcept 1 -1009 922.8 925 -1.09 0. 2926 HJTL RT 1 -2 .0145 2.0 191 -1.00 0. 3354 HJTLRT
PDBK PT 1 0 .4631 0.1 102 4.20 0. 0009 PDBKPT PELR T 1 0 .5365 0.1 550 3.46 0. 0038 PELRT
D98 1 -922 .6944 615.1 848 -1.50 0. 1559 LCLI SRT 1 0 .5113 0.1 604 3.19 0. 0066
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depende nt Vari able CLISIND CLISIND
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 133 74742.3 DFE 13
MSE 1028826 Roo t MSE 10 14 SBC 345 .990593 AIC 339.0204 68
Regress R-Squar e 0.9937 Tot al R-Squ are 0.99 37 Durbin h -0.5770 Pr h 0.28 20
Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label
Inte rcept 1 -1958 3 823 -0.51 0. 6171 HJTL IND 1 -4 .8293 5.1 768 -0.93 0. 3679 HJTLIND
PDBI 1 0.0 03827 0.001 513 2.53 0. 0251 PDBI PELI ND 1 158 .1425 134.7 769 1.17 0. 2617 PELIND
D98 1 -4583 1 450 -3.16 0. 0075 D09 1 -4980 1 210 -4.11 0. 0012
LCLI SIND 1 0 .9010 0.1 505 5.99 . 0001
204
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depend ent Var iable PENPJK PENPJK
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 1.5 7408E10 DFE 15
MSE 104 9388836 Roo t MSE 323 94 SBC 481 .412037 AIC 476.4333 75
Regress R-Squar e 0.9847 Tot al R-Squ are 0.98 47 Durbins t -0.6210 Pr t 0.27 27
NOTE: Durbi n h can not be o btained . The t- statist ic is g iven. Stan dard Ap prox
Var iable DF Est imate E rror t Value Pr |t| Int ercept 1 - 45463 2 2204 -2.05 0. 0585
LPD B 1 0 .1020 0. 0343 2.97 0. 0094 INF LASI 1 4558 2222 2.05 0. 0581
D98 1 -3 19936 15 6849 -2.04 0. 0594 LPE NPJK 1 0 .3229 0. 2758 1.17 0. 2599
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depende nt Vari able BLJLAIN BLJLAIN
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 65 4127353 DFE 15
MSE 4 3608490 Roo t MSE 66 04 SBC 41 7.79781 AIC 412.8191 48
Regress R-Squar e 0.9985 Tot al R-Squ are 0.99 85 Durbin h -1.3543 Pr h 0.08 78
Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label
Inte rcept 1 -4008 4 328 -0.93 0. 3691 PENP EM 1 0 .0363 0.0 240 1.52 0. 1500
IHK 1 193 .8856 82.9 436 2.34 0. 0337 IHK D09 1 1 03212 7 337 14.07 . 0001
LBLJ LAIN 1 0 .9249 0.0 450 20.54 . 0001
205
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depend ent Var iable SUBPRT SUBPRT
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 521 34.5689 DFE 16
MSE 3258 Roo t MSE 57.082 49 SBC 226 .057495 AIC 222.0745 66
Regress R-Squar e 0.9353 Tot al R-Squ are 0.93 53 Durbin h 1.0169 Pr h 0.15 46
Stan dard Ap prox Var iable DF Est imate E rror t Value Pr |t|
Int ercept 1 -30 .6897 21. 4735 -1.43 0. 1722 PEN PEM 1 0.0 00438 0.00 0101 4.31 0. 0005
D08 1 189 .6783 70. 6561 2.68 0. 0163 LSU BPRT 1 0 .1985 0. 1555 1.28 0. 2198
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depende nt Vari able SUBPIND SUBPIND
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 342 50.2517 DFE 16
MSE 2141 Roo t MSE 46.267 06 SBC 217 .654809 AIC 213.671 88
Regress R-Squar e 0.9490 Tot al R-Squ are 0.94 90 Durbin h -0.2646 Pr h 0.39 57
Stan dard Ap prox Var iable DF Est imate E rror t Value Pr |t|
Int ercept 1 -39 .8937 17. 4889 -2.28 0. 0366 PEN PEM 1 0.0 00421 0.000 0769 5.48 . 0001
D08 1 209 .7906 56. 8870 3.69 0. 0020 LSU BPIND 1 0 .1343 0. 1303 1.03 0. 3178
206
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depende nt Vari able SUBPOTH SUBPOTH
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 351 94.1662 DFE 16
MSE 2200 Roo t MSE 46.900 27 SBC 218 .198537 AIC 214.2156 08
Regress R-Squar e 0.9203 Tot al R-Squ are 0.92 03 Durbin h 0.8165 Pr h 0.20 71
Stan dard Ap prox Var iable DF Est imate E rror t Value Pr |t|
Int ercept 1 -104 .6863 25. 0872 -4.17 0. 0007 PEN PEM 1 0.0 00327 0.000 0716 4.57 0. 0003
D08 1 202 .1526 56. 0098 3.61 0. 0024 LSU BPOTH 1 0 .1104 0. 1463 0.75 0. 4616
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depende nt Vari able CONLAIN CONLAIN
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 4.5 3448E10 DFE 14
MSE 323 8915430 Roo t MSE 569 11 SBC 505 .568523 AIC 499.594 13
Regress R-Squar e 0.9980 Tot al R-Squ are 0.99 80 Durbins t 0.8045 Pr t 0.21 84
NOTE: Durbi n h can not be o btained . The t- statist ic is g iven. Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e
Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label Inte rcept 1 - 13587 41 900 -0.32 0. 7505
PDBK PT 1 110 .0489 57.1 413 1.93 0. 0747 PDBKPT INFL ASI 1 -26 .5894 4 225 -0.01 0. 9951
D98 1 54504 280 769 0.19 0. 8489 D08 1 1 33466 65 364 2.04 0. 0605
LCON LAIN 1 0 .1902 0.4 817 0.39 0. 6989
207
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depen dent Va riable INV INV
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 4.6 6791E10 DFE 15
MSE 311 1938460 Roo t MSE 557 85 SBC 503 .152795 AIC 498.1741 33
Regress R-Squar e 0.9928 Tot al R-Squ are 0.99 28 Durbin h -0.5466 Pr h 0.29 23
Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label
Inte rcept 1 49424 49 992 0.99 0. 3385 PDB 1 0 .0722 0.0 355 2.04 0. 0599 PDB
SKBG 1 -3764 2 160 -1.74 0. 1019 SKBG D04 1 -1 18044 59 815 -1.97 0. 0672
LINV 1 0 .9178 0.1 394 6.59 . 0001 The SA S Syste m
The AUTORE G Proce dure Depend ent Var iable EKSPOR
EKSPOR Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es
SSE 1.8 8699E11 DFE 16 MSE 1.1 7937E10 Roo t MSE 1085 99
SBC 528 .094187 AIC 524.1112 58 Regress R-Squar e 0.9596 Tot al R-Squ are 0.95 96
Durbin h -1.8515 Pr h 0.03 20 Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e
Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label Inte rcept 1 - 26942 58 094 -0.46 0. 6491
KURS 1 13 .1038 12.6 688 1.03 0. 3164 KURS D98 1 2 53373 122 247 2.07 0. 0547
LEKS POR 1 0 .9988 0.0 979 10.20 . 0001
208
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depend ent Var iable IMPOR IMPOR
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 1.8 2529E11 DFE 14
MSE 1.3 0378E10 Roo t MSE 1141 83 SBC 533 .420778 AIC 527.4463 84
Regress R-Squar e 0.9532 Tot al R-Squ are 0.95 32 Durbin h -3.4610 Pr h 0.00 03
Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label
Inte rcept 1 -26 41834 1294 399 -2.04 0. 0606 INFL ASI 1 19089 8 267 2.31 0. 0367
KURS 1 -21 .6170 18.6 594 -1.16 0. 2660 KURS POP 1 13 .5589 7.1 266 1.90 0. 0779 POP
D98 1 -11 07300 571 956 -1.94 0. 0733 LIMP OR 1 0 .7376 0.2 123 3.47 0. 0037
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depen dent Va riable KURS KURS
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 180 55342.3 DFE 15
MSE 1203689 Roo t MSE 10 97 SBC 346 .000601 AIC 341.0219 39
Regress R-Squar e 0.9211 Tot al R-Squ are 0.92 11 Durbin h -1.6150 Pr h 0.05 32
Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label
Inte rcept 1 714 .7607 561.5 794 1.27 0. 2225 IHK 1 33 .1408 16.4 290 2.02 0. 0619 IHK
CADE V 1 -0 .0618 0.0 326 -1.90 0. 0774 CADEV D979 9 1 1467 707.3 035 2.07 0. 0557
LKUR S 1 0 .6651 0.1 806 3.68 0. 0022
209
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depen dent Va riable IHK IHK
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 37. 9466477 DFE 10
MSE 3.79466 Roo t MSE 1.947 99 SBC 99. 5238419 AIC 89.56651 92
Regress R-Squar e 0.9995 Tot al R-Squ are 0.99 95 Durbin h -0.9443 Pr h 0.17 25
Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label
Inte rcept 1 5 .5638 3.5 023 1.59 0. 1432 SKBG 1 -0 .0324 0.1 665 -0.19 0. 8495 SKBG
UANG BR 1 0 .0167 0.005 972 2.80 0. 0187 UANGBR AVHJ TL 1 0 .0200 0.0 143 1.40 0. 1925
PBBM 1 0.0 02428 0.000 532 4.57 0. 0010 PBBM KURS 1 0.0 02050 0.000 375 5.47 0. 0003 KURS
D98 1 23 .0003 5.6 933 4.04 0. 0024 D05 1 12 .9394 2.2 600 5.73 0. 0002
D02 1 4 .2733 2.2 103 1.93 0. 0820 LIHK 1 0 .6149 0.1 113 5.52 0. 0003
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depen dent Va riable SKBG SKBG
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 228 .711585 DFE 16
MSE 1 4.29447 Roo t MSE 3.780 80 SBC 11 7.47506 AIC 113.4921 31
Regress R-Squar e 0.8137 Tot al R-Squ are 0.81 37 Durbin h 1.3492 Pr h 0.08 86
Stan dard Ap prox Var iable DF Est imate E rror t Value Pr |t|
Int ercept 1 2 .8075 2. 3448 1.20 0. 2486 INF LASI 1 0 .2906 0. 0665 4.37 0. 0005
D97 99 1 3 .1056 3. 4589 0.90 0. 3826 LSK BG 1 0 .5319 0. 1402 3.79 0. 0016
210
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depen dent Va riable STK STK
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 2 6934487 DFE 13
MSE 2071884 Roo t MSE 14 39 SBC 359 .991383 AIC 353.0212 57
Regress R-Squar e 0.9894 Tot al R-Squ are 0.98 94 Durbins t -0.1818 Pr t 0.42 95
NOTE: Durbi n h can not be o btained . The t- statist ic is g iven. Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e
Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label Inte rcept 1 - 35064 21 130 -1.66 0. 1209
RUPH 1 4 .9197 3.7 964 1.30 0. 2175 POP 1 0 .4628 0.2 613 1.77 0. 1000 POP
DBLJ LAIN 1 0 .0149 0.0 528 0.28 0. 7821 D04 1 -1838 1 982 -0.93 0. 3706
D09 1 -2603 5 845 -0.45 0. 6634 LSTK 1 0 .3477 0.3 508 0.99 0. 3397
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depen dent Va riable RUPH Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es
SSE 342 73.1139 DFE 15 MSE 2285 Roo t MSE 47.800 36
SBC 220 .663887 AIC 215.6852 25 Regress R-Squar e 0.8163 Tot al R-Squ are 0.81 63
Durbin h -0.6862 Pr h 0.24 63 Stan dard Ap prox
Var iable DF Est imate E rror t Value Pr |t| Int ercept 1 263 .2230 133. 7949 1.97 0. 0679
LST K 1 -0.0 01669 0.00 0994 -1.68 0. 1136 DDT K 1 0.0 03455 0.00 6036 0.57 0. 5756
D98 1 -297 .8114 57. 3498 -5.19 0. 0001 LRU PH 1 0 .8653 0. 1258 6.88 . 0001
211
The SA S Syste m The AUTORE G Proce dure
Depende nt Vari able MISDESA MISDESA
Ordinary Least Squares Estimat es SSE 403 22300.3 DFE 14
MSE 2880164 Roo t MSE 16 97 SBC 365 .065594 AIC 359.09 12
Regress R-Squar e 0.8921 Tot al R-Squ are 0.89 21 Durbin h -1.5630 Pr h 0.05 90
Stand ard Ap prox Variabl e Vari able DF Est imate Er ror t Value Pr |t| Label
Inte rcept 1 8359 2 280 3.67 0. 0025 INFL ASI 1 25 .7450 28.4 615 0.90 0. 3810
GOVE XP 1 -0.0 06162 0.003 101 -1.99 0. 0668 GOVEXP UNEM PL 1 0 .4354 0.2 024 2.15 0. 0494
D979 9 1 4623 1 421 3.25 0. 0058 LMIS DESA 1 0 .5244 0.1 190 4.41 0. 0006
212
Lampiran 7. Prog ram Validasi Model Subsidi Harga Listrik mengg unakan Metode Newton dan Pros edur SIMNLIN dengan Program
SASETS versi 9.1
options nodate nonumber; LIBNAME IN C:\Disertasi;
data datapln; set in.pln;
PRODSDR
= TLSDR+TLSEWA; PRODTL
= PRODSDR+TLBELI; TLJUAL
= CLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH; SUSUT
= PRODTL-TLJUAL-CLISDR; AVHJTL
= HJTLRTCLISRT+HJTLINDCLISIND+ HJTLOTHCLISOTHCLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH;
BPP = BOPTLJUAL1000;
CONLIS = HJTLRTCLISRT + HJTLINDCLISIND+
HJTLOTHCLISOTH1000; CONRT
= CONLIS + CONLAIN; NETEKS
= EKSPOR-IMPOR; PDB
= CONRT + INV + GOVEXP + EKSPOR - IMPOR; RPDB
= PDB100IHK; PDBKPT
= PDBPOP; PDBL
= PDB-PDBI; HJTLRT
= BPP1+m100-SUBPRT;
HJTLIND = BPP1+m100-SUBPIND;
HJTLOTH = BPP1+m100-SUBPOTH;
PENPEM = PENPJK+PENNPJK;
CLAIN = CPLHR+CPGW+CSUSUT+COTH;
CBBM = QBBMPBBM1000000;
CBTB = QBTBPBTB1000000;
CGAS = QGASPGAS1000000;
PMISKIN = MISKOTA + MISDESA;
TMISKIN = MISKOTA+MISDESAPOP100;
BLJSUB = SUBLSTR + SUBLAIN1000;
PENPEM = PENPJK + PENNPJK;
UNEMPL = STK-DTK;
if tahun=1998 then D98=1; else D98=0;
if tahun=2008 then D08=1; else D08=0;
if tahun=2005 then D05=1; else D05=0;
if tahun=2004 then D04=1; else D04=0;
if tahun=2009 then D09=1; else D09=0;
if tahun=1997 or tahun=1998 or tahun=1999 then D9799=1; else D9799=0;
if tahun=2002 then D02=1; else D02=0;
213
LCLISRT = lagclisrt;
LCLISIND = lagclisind;
LCLISOTH = lagclisoth;
LBOP = lagbop;
LPBBM = lagpbbm;
LPBTB = lagpbtb;
LPGAS = lagpgas;
LQBBM = lagqbbm;
LQBTB = lagqbtb;
LQGAS = lagqgas;
LQBBM = lagqbbm;
LQBTB = lagqbtb;
LQGAS = lagqgas;
LPDB = lagpdb;
LKURS = lagkurs;
LIHK = lagihk;
LTLBELI = lagtlbeli;
LPRODSDR = lagprodsdr;
LMISKOTA = lagmiskota;
LMISDESA = lagmisdesa;
LSUBPRT = lagsubprt;
LSUBPIND = lagsubpind;
LSUBPOTH = lagsubpoth;
LPENPJK = lagpenpjk;
LSUBLSTR = lagsublstr;
LSTK = lagstk;
LDTK = lagdtk;
LRPDB = lagrpdb;
LRUPH = lagruph;
LCONLAIN = lagconlain;
LINV = laginv;
LBLJLAIN = lagbljlain;
LEKSPOR = lagekspor;
LIMPOR = lagimpor;
LSKBG = lagskbg;
INFLASI = IHK-LIHKLIHK100;
GROWTH = RPDB-LRPDBLRPDB100;
run; proc simnlin data=datapln dynamic simulate stat outpredict theil;
endogenous prodsdr qbbm qbtb qgas pbbm pbtb pgas cbbm cbtb cgas
tlbeli prodtl bop bpp clisrt clisind clisoth tljual susut subprt subpind subpoth subrt subind suboth
sublstr hjtlrt hjtlind hjtloth avhjtl penpjk penpem bljlain govexp conlis conlain conrt inv ekspor impor
pdb rpdb growth pdbkpt kurs ihk inflasi skbg stk dtk unempl ruph miskota misdesa pmiskin tmiskin;
exogenous susut pennpjk pop pdbi cplhr clain icp pdbtb pdgas clisdr cadev uangbr d98 d08 d05 d09 d9799 d02 d04;
LCLISRT = lagclisrt;
LCLISIND = lagclisind;
LCLISOTH = lagclisoth;
LBOP = lagbop;
LPBBM = lagpbbm;
LPBTB = lagpbtb;
LPGAS = lagpgas;
LQBBM = lagqbbm;
LQBTB = lagqbtb;
LQGAS = lagqgas;
LQBBM = lagqbbm;
LQBTB = lagqbtb;
LQGAS = lagqgas;
LPDB = lagpdb;
LKURS = lagkurs;
LIHK = lagihk;
LTLBELI = lagtlbeli;
LPRODSDR = lagprodsdr;
LMISKOTA = lagmiskota;
LMISDESA = lagmisdesa;
LSUBPRT = lagsubprt;
LSUBPIND = lagsubpind;
LSUBPOTH = lagsubpoth;
LPENPJK = lagpenpjk;
LSUBLSTR = lagsublstr;
LSTK = lagstk;
LDTK = lagdtk;
LRUPH = lagruph;
LCONLAIN = lagconlain;
LINV = laginv;
LBLJLAIN = lagbljlain;
LEKSPOR = lagekspor;
LIMPOR = lagimpor;
LSKBG = lagskbg;
LRPDB = lagrpdb;
parm a0 9012.079 a1 0.000248 a2 0.001461 a3 0.023578 a4 0.625091
b0 35351.62 b1 -59.6042 b2 18.00578 b3 942261.9 b4 0.812856
c0 -2301871 c1 -891.932 c2 105.1371 c3 148.7185 c4 0.538798 d0 7043.293 d1 -4.75730 d2 8.081043 d3 -0.04389 d4 -0.00730
214
d5 -37568.6 e0 -988.933 e1 66.37429 e2 0.024172 e3 1089.309 e4 0.237759
f0 -113.302 f1 2.588217 f2 0.010802 f3 0.019297 f4 0.601905 g0 -957.021 g1 763.6172 g2 0.107165 g3 0.042218 g4 19135.55
g5 8717.081 g6 0.857225 h0 -3780.01 h1 0.046545 h2 0.322728 h3 -2239.34 h4 0.851006
i0 -937.226 i1 0.731174 i2 0.969435 i3 1.197797 i4 1.583887 i5 0.808336 i6 5086.999 i7 0.001061
j0 -1009.26 j1 -2.01447 j2 463.1043 j3 0.536486 j4 -922.694 j5 0.511289
k0 -1958.22 k1 -4.82933 k2 0.003827 k3 158.1425 k4 -4582.81 k5 -4979.80 k6 0.900984
l0 -335.456 l1 -1.08605 l2 0.003633 l3 6.654027 l4 1514.473 l5 1082.157
m0 -45462.8 m1 0.101952 m2 4557.819 m3 -319936 m4 0.322897 n0 -4007.71 n1 0.036347 n2 193.8856 n3 103212.5 n4 0.924940
o0 -30.6897 o1 0.000438 o2 189.6783 o3 0.198539 p0 -39.8937 p1 0.000421 p2 209.7906 p3 0.134340
q0 -104.686 q1 0.000327 q2 202.1526 q3 0.110361 r0 -13586.9 r1 110048.9 r2 -26.5894 r3 54503.53 r4 133465.5
r5 0.1920218 s0 49424.32 s1 0.072185 s2 -3763.54 s3 -118044 s4 0.917795
t0 -26942.0 t1 13.10376 t2 253373.3 t3 0.998771 t4 329272.9 u0 -2641834 u1 19088.89 u2 -21.6170 u3 13.55890 u4 -1107300
u5 0.737583 v0 714.7607 v1 33.14076 v2 -0.06175 v3 1467.304 v4 0.665105
w0 5.563770 w1 -0.03242 w2 0.016741 w3 0.020046 w4 0.002428 w5 0.002050 w6 23.00031
w7 12.93938 w8 4.273269 w9 0.614920 x0 2.807472 x1 0.290601 x2 3.105602 x3 0.531885
y0 -35064.0 y1 4.919688 y2 0.462834 y3 0.014904 y4 -1837.59 y5 -2603.15 y6 0.347697
z0 86066.35 z1 -8.62850 z2 0.004586 z3 3177.572 aa0 263.2230 aa1 -0.00167 aa2 0.003455 aa3 -297.811 aa4 0.865321
ab0 10198.97 ab1 33.65109 ab2 -3.89511 ab3 0.430785 ab4 4274.466 ac0 8359.462 ac1 25.74496 ac2 -0.00616 ac3 0.435392 ac4 4623.263
ac5 0.524380; PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL;
BLOK PRODUKSI; Prodsdr
= a0 + a1qbbm + a2qbtb + a3qgas + a4lprodsdr; qbbm
= b0 + b1pbbm + b2prodsdr + b3d08 + b4lqbbm; qbtb
= c0 + c1pbtb + c2prodsdr + c3pbbm + c4lqbtb; qgas
= d0 + d1pgas + d2prodsdr + d3qbbm + d4qbtb + d5d9799;
pbbm = e0 + e1icp + e2kurs + e3d08 + e4lpbbm;
pbtb = f0 + f1pdbtb + f2kurs + f3pbbm + f4lpbtb;
pgas = g0 + g1pdgas + g2kurs + g3pbbm + g4d98 +
g5d09 + g6lpgas; tlbeli
= h0 + h1tljual + h2susut + h3d08 + h4ltlbeli; 2. BIAYA OPERASIONAL;
bop = i0 + i1tlbeli + i2cbbm + i3cbtb + i4cgas +
i5clain + i6d08 + i7lbop; BLOK KONSUMSI;
clisrt = j0 + j1hjtlrt + j2pdbkpt + j3pelrt + j4d98 +
j5lclisrt; clisind
= k0 + k1hjtlind + k2pdbi + k3pelind + k4d98 +
215
k5d09 + k6lclisind; clisoth
= l0 + l1hjtloth + l2pdb-pdbi + l3peloth + l4d05 + l5d08;
BLOK HARGA JUAL; penpjk
= m0 + m1lpdb + m2inflasi + m3d98 + m4lpenpjk; bljlain
= n0 + n1penpem + n2ihk + n3d09 + n4lbljlain; BLOK SUBSIDI;
subprt = o0 + o1penpem + o2d08 + o3lsubprt;
subpind = p0 + p1penpem + p2d08 + p3lsubpind;
subpoth = q0 + q1penpem + q2d08 + q3lsubpoth;
BLOK PEREKONOMIAN; conlain
= r0 + r1pdbkpt + r2inflasi + r3d98 + r4d08 + r5lconlain;
inv = s0 + s1pdb + s2skbg + s3d04 + s4linv;
ekspor = t0 + t1kurs + t2d98 + t3lekspor;
impor = u0 + u1inflasi + u2kurs + u3pop + u4d98 +
u5limpor; kurs
= v0 + v1ihk + v2cadev + v3d9799 + v4lkurs; ihk
= w0 + w1skbg + w2uangbr + w3avhjtl + w4pbbm + w5kurs + w6d98 + w7d05 + w8d02 + w9lihk;
skbg = x0 + x1inflasi + x2d9799 + x3lskbg;
BLOK TENAGA KERJA; stk
= y0 + y1ruph + y2pop + y3bljlain-lbljlain + y4d04 + y5d09 + y6lstk;
dtk = z0 + z1ruph + z2pdb + z3d9799;
ruph = aa0 + aa1lstk + aa2dtk-ldtk + aa3d98 +
aa4lruph; BLOK KEMISKINAN;
miskota = ab0 + ab1inflasi + ab2ruph + ab3unempl +
ab4d9799; misdesa
= ac0 + ac1inflasi + ac2govexp + ac3unempl + ac4d9799 + ac5lmisdesa;
PERSAMAAN IDENTITAS; CBBM
= QBBMPBBM1000000; CBTB
= QBTBPBTB1000000; CGAS
= QGASPGAS1000000; PRODTL
= PRODSDR+TLBELI; BPP
= BOPTLJUAL1000; TLJUAL
= CLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH; SUSUT
= PRODTL-TLJUAL-CLISDR; SUBRT
= SUBPRT CLISRT1000; SUBIND
= SUBPIND CLISIND1000; SUBOTH
= SUBPOTH CLISOTH1000; SUBLSTR
= SUBRT + SUBIND + SUBOTH; HJTLRT
= BPP1+m100-SUBPRT; HJTLIND
= BPP1+m100-SUBPIND; HJTLOTH
= BPP1+m100-SUBPOTH; AVHJTL
= HJTLRTCLISRT+HJTLINDCLISIND+ HJTLOTHCLISOTHCLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH;
PENPEM = PENPJK + PENNPJK;
GOVEXP = BLJLAIN + SUBLSTR;
CONLIS = HJTLRTCLISRT+HJTLINDCLISIND+
HJTLOTHCLISOTH1000;
216
CONRT = CONLIS + CONLAIN;
PDB = CONRT + INV + GOVEXP + EKSPOR - IMPOR;
RPDB = PDB100IHK;
GROWTH = RPDB-LRPDBLRPDB100;
PDBKPT = PDBPOP;
INFLASI = IHK-LIHKLIHK100;
UNEMPL = STK-DTK;
PMISKIN = MISKOTA + MISDESA;
TMISKIN = MISKOTA+MISDESAPOP100;
run;
217
Lampiran 8. Hasil Validasi Model Subsidi Harga Listrik mengg unakan Metode Newton dan Pros edur SIMNLIN dengan Program
SASETS versi 9.1
The SA S Syste m The SIMNLI N Proce dure
Model Summary Model Variabl es 74
Endoge nous 55 Exogen ous 19
Parame ters 160 Equati ons 56
Number of Sta tements 91 Progra m Lag L ength 1
The SA S Syste m The SIMNLI N Proce dure
Dynamic Simulta neous S imulatio n Data Se t Optio ns
DATA= DATAP LN S olution Summar y
V ariables Solved 55 S imulatio n Lag L ength 1
S olution Method NEWT ON C ONVERGE= 1E -8
M aximum C C 4.929E -9 M aximum I teratio ns 5
T otal Ite rations 66 A verage I teratio ns 3 .3
Obs ervatio ns Proc essed Read 21
Lagge d 1 Solve d 20
First 2 Last 21
218
The SAS Sys tem The SIMNLI N Proce dure
Dynamic Simulta neous S imulatio n Desc riptive Statis tics
Ac tual Pred icted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev La bel
PRODSDR 20 20 83319.9 2742 8.3 82581.4 2821 9.5 PR ODSDR QBBM 20 20 6769846 2658 460 6568554 1806 567 QB BM
QBTB 20 20 1 3092045 6253 636 1 2917520 6364 381 QB TB QGAS 20 20 189791 9337 8.2 193507 6540 6.0 QG AS
PBBM 20 20 2044.9 237 3.1 2014.0 230 2.7 PB BM PBTB 20 20 226.4 19 8.5 203.7 15 2.7 PB TB
PGAS 20 20 19398.4 1118 1.7 19476.0 1154 4.3 PG AS CBBM 20 20 19096.0 2582 5.3 16811.2 2210 9.4
CBTB 20 20 4004.4 484 3.8 3504.4 408 2.7 CGAS 20 20 4002.8 307 6.0 4182.0 333 8.3
TLBELI 20 20 14705.0 1368 2.2 18280.7 1708 7.9 TL BELI PRODTL 20 20 98024.8 4045 9.1 100862 4511 0.2
BOP 20 20 52073.8 5309 1.9 52157.8 5336 7.1 BO P BPP 20 20 487.0 37 5.7 376.8 26 5.3 BP P
CLISRT 20 20 31513.4 1492 4.0 40468.1 2225 9.9 CL ISRT CLISIND 20 20 33901.0 1055 6.2 38446.6 1520 4.7 CL ISIND
CLISOTH 20 20 17043.1 975 0.1 24802.4 1572 4.5 CL ISOTH TLJUAL 20 20 82457.5 3500 8.9 103717 5305 4.2
SUBPRT 20 20 153.4 20 5.9 288.2 31 4.2 SU BPRT SUBPIND 20 20 128.6 18 8.1 249.9 28 5.1 SU BPIND
SUBPOTH 20 20 17.3840 15 2.4 109.1 22 1.0 SU BPOTH SUBRT 20 20 7419.0 1061 0.8 18033.0 2270 5.6 SU BRT
SUBIND 20 20 5906.8 891 2.5 13587.0 1736 4.7 SU BIND SUBOTH 20 20 1512.7 401 7.0 5860.3 929 0.0 SU BOTH
SUBLSTR 20 20 14838.5 2341 6.0 37480.2 4929 4.4 SU BLSTR HJTLRT 20 20 340.1 20 3.2 93.6730 52.2 782 HJ TLRT
HJTLIND 20 20 364.9 21 7.9 132.0 35.7 457 HJ TLIND HJTLOTH 20 20 476.2 25 1.6 272.7 63.1 812 HJ TLOTH
AVHJTL 20 20 377.7 22 1.8 150.1 33.6 940 PENPJK 20 20 237399 232 946 491863 458 894 PE NPJK
PENPEM 20 20 340764 324 422 595227 547 400 BLJLAIN 20 20 156498 152 598 188298 180 696 BL JLAIN
GOVEXP 20 20 171337 173 900 225779 228 821 GO VEXP CONLIS 20 20 38169.9 3323 2.4 15642.7 817 6.1
CONLAIN 20 20 1237938 1079 761 2495308 2001 164 CO NLAIN CONRT 20 20 1276107 1112 449 2510950 2008 294 CO NRT
INV 20 20 553245 582 313 1292816 1297 865 IN V EKSPOR 20 20 619229 496 075 634077 445 384 EK SPOR
IMPOR 20 20 538495 453 091 511715 519 126 IM POR PDB 20 20 2081423 1896 564 4151907 3450 425 PD B
RPDB 20 20 1547069 606 105 3461043 1893 955 GROWTH 20 20 7.1708 6.6 183 13.1940 23.2 721 GR OWTH
PDBKPT 20 20 9.4463 8.0 609 18.8861 14.8 612 PD BKPT KURS 20 20 6959.0 347 0.4 5897.5 196 6.8 KU RS
IHK 20 20 111.1 65.5 466 97.0027 47.9 534 IH K INFLASI 20 20 11.7090 15.8 989 10.2941 13.0 099
SKBG 20 20 14.8880 8.0 381 13.8194 5.5 709 SK BG STK 20 20 97691.6 1153 7.4 97962.6 1183 3.6 ST K
DTK 20 20 90614.6 895 9.7 99896.1 1546 8.8 DT K UNEMPL 20 20 7076.9 307 5.3 -1933.5 461 3.0
RUPH 20 20 634.4 99.0 908 659.2 66.1 426 MISKOTA 20 20 11811.8 254 5.8 7786.1 305 9.2 MI SKOTA
MISDESA 20 20 23809.4 443 4.2 15859.1 722 5.4 MI SDESA PMISKIN 20 20 35621.2 643 4.3 23645.2 1016 1.2
TMISKIN 20 20 17.1635 3.0 513 11.6857 5.3 632 TM ISKIN
Statistics of fit Mean Mean Mean Abs M ean Abs R MS R MS
Variable N Error Erro r E rror Error Err or E rror PRODSDR 20 -738.5 -0.638 3 37 74.1 4.8859 4529 .0 5. 8141
QBBM 20 - 201292 4.292 8 129 0530 22.1220 14389 18 26. 3181 QBTB 20 - 174525 -0.799 5 85 0120 8.0445 9801 04 9. 9698
QGAS 20 3715.8 66.940 2 718 34.4 92.1615 89455 .0 1 96.4 PBBM 20 -3 0.9721 7.693 4 2 35.9 29.5803 333 .5 42. 4280
PBTB 20 -2 2.7111 3.130 9 39. 1838 20.2908 64.82 90 30. 0409
219
PGAS 20 7 7.5664 -1.236 7 16 21.9 9.5240 2025 .2 11. 0704 CBBM 20 - 2284.8 11.828 6 35 77.0 38.2490 6147 .7 56. 7923
CBTB 20 -500.0 2.087 5 6 54.8 22.3617 1144 .6 29. 8059 CGAS 20 179.1 59.044 1 14 63.9 87.8906 1925 .2 1 67.3
TLBELI 20 3575.7 14.343 4 40 50.9 55.9120 5107 .2 72. 5914 PRODTL 20 2837.2 1.976 1 52 71.5 4.6718 6909 .6 5. 3021
BOP 20 8 4.0282 1.343 3 25 00.3 10.0927 3264 .1 13. 9837 BPP 20 -110.1 -14.713 9 1 17.4 20.9179 157 .3 22. 2246
CLISRT 20 8954.7 22.358 2 90 07.5 22.8344 11580 .6 27. 0189 CLISIND 20 4545.5 10.834 4 45 81.5 10.9435 6786 .7 14. 8870
CLISOTH 20 7759.2 37.067 5 77 89.7 37.6566 9882 .6 44. 4194 TLJUAL 20 2 1259.5 20.565 4 212 85.7 20.6486 27825 .7 24. 7994
SUBPRT 20 134.7 30.517 4 1 46.4 153.4 194 .9 2 53.8 SUBPIND 20 121.2 64.529 8 1 33.3 262.7 173 .2 4 61.9
SUBPOTH 20 9 1.7611 -85.889 2 1 04.0 250.4 134 .0 5 05.9 SUBRT 20 1 0614.0 84.395 8 108 22.8 208.7 16431 .9 3 53.7
SUBIND 20 7680.2 87.932 7 80 13.9 291.3 11722 .0 4 91.7 SUBOTH 20 4347.6 -91.557 4 45 36.0 380.1 7056 .8 7 38.5
SUBLSTR 20 2 2641.7 208. 4 233 47.5 276.1 35152 .9 6 55.8 HJTLRT 20 -246.4 -53.365 5 2 46.6 53.4622 341 .5 63. 8060
HJTLIND 20 -232.9 -45.227 5 2 33.0 45.2878 321 .1 56. 3737 HJTLOTH 20 -203.5 -31.291 0 2 03.8 31.4570 280 .5 39. 2237
AVHJTL 20 -227.6 -43.556 3 2 27.8 43.6741 315 .3 53. 3469 PENPJK 20 254463 98.863 5 25 7388 103.2 3433 94 1 13.6
PENPEM 20 254463 66.562 1 25 7388 69.5859 3433 94 77. 5164 BLJLAIN 20 3 1800.3 17.653 7 321 91.2 19.0103 42727 .0 21. 6642
GOVEXP 20 5 4442.1 24.960 5 547 35.5 26.0695 77076 .4 29. 4378 CONLIS 20 -2 2527.1 -35.981 2 226 96.4 37.1976 34447 .4 46. 7914
CONLAIN 20 1 257370 95.139 1 125 8148 95.7222 15759 36 1 05.7 CONRT 20 1 234843 91.170 8 123 5646 91.7551 15439 79 1 01.3
INV 20 739571 111. 4 74 3749 115.7 10346 37 1 37.2 EKSPOR 20 1 4848.5 5.718 0 889 95.4 13.4742 1328 21 18. 9464
IMPOR 20 -2 6779.9 -11.441 3 11 6610 30.9413 1409 84 38. 0846 PDB 20 2 070484 90.556 9 207 9161 93.8831 26245 59 1 04.7
RPDB 20 1 913975 110. 3 195 2445 114.9 23417 86 1 32.2 GROWTH 20 6.0232 -17.189 9 18. 1205 313.9 25.31 16 4 95.0
PDBKPT 20 9.4397 90.556 9 9. 4873 93.8831 11.81 65 1 04.7 KURS 20 - 1061.5 -0.035 8 18 29.5 29.9397 2049 .1 32. 8144
IHK 20 -1 4.0923 -5.834 6 16. 9917 12.5901 22.93 30 14. 1742 INFLASI 20 - 1.4149 -2.583 6 3. 7276 41.7080 5.28 98 53. 8135
SKBG 20 - 1.0686 3.974 6 3. 5948 28.3308 4.04 32 33. 0247 STK 20 271.0 0.260 2 9 93.1 0.9970 1294 .5 1. 2831
DTK 20 9281.5 9.719 5 95 47.7 10.0285 11536 .2 11. 7425 UNEMPL 20 - 9010.5 -121. 4 91 42.3 124.4 11055 .9 1 40.5
RUPH 20 2 4.7771 5.181 1 58. 2230 9.8846 70.41 43 12. 6773 MISKOTA 20 - 4025.7 -32.189 7 41 68.7 33.4454 5157 .4 41. 1561
MISDESA 20 - 7950.3 -33.604 4 79 84.1 33.8013 9925 .9 43. 5902 PMISKIN 20 -1 1975.9 -33.306 8 119 75.9 33.3068 14935 .5 42. 4461
TMISKIN 20 - 5.4777 -33.306 8 5. 4777 33.3068 6.69 50 42. 4461
Theil Fo recast Error S tatistic s MSE D ecompos ition Pr oportio ns
Corr Bias Reg Dist Var C ovar In equalit y Coef Variab le N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U
PRODSD R 20 20 511438 0.99 0.03 0.06 0.91 0.03 0.94 0 .0518 0.0259 QBBM 20 2 .07E12 0.85 0.02 0.10 0.88 0.33 0.65 0 .1985 0.1024
QBTB 20 9. 606E11 0.99 0.03 0.03 0.93 0.01 0.96 0 .0679 0.0341 QGAS 20 8. 0022E9 0.38 0.00 0.11 0.89 0.09 0.91 0 .4250 0.2160
PBBM 20 111217 0.99 0.01 0.02 0.97 0.04 0.95 0 .1080 0.0546 PBTB 20 4202.8 0.97 0.12 0.36 0.52 0.47 0.40 0 .2177 0.1179
PGAS 20 4 101625 0.98 0.00 0.07 0.93 0.03 0.97 0 .0910 0.0453 CBBM 20 37 794110 0.98 0.14 0.27 0.60 0.35 0.51 0 .1946 0.1043
CBTB 20 1 310163 0.99 0.19 0.35 0.46 0.42 0.39 0 .1849 0.0996 CGAS 20 3 706528 0.82 0.01 0.18 0.81 0.02 0.97 0 .3850 0.1869
TLBELI 20 26 083217 0.99 0.49 0.44 0.07 0.42 0.09 0 .2573 0.1146 PRODTL 20 47 742996 0.99 0.17 0.47 0.36 0.43 0.40 0 .0654 0.0320
BOP 20 10 654215 1.00 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.01 0.99 0 .0445 0.0222 BPP 20 2 4735.0 0.99 0.49 0.45 0.06 0.47 0.04 0 .2581 0.1475
CLISRT 20 1. 3411E8 1.00 0.60 0.39 0.01 0.38 0.02 0 .3337 0.1436 CLISIN D 20 46 059744 0.98 0.45 0.48 0.07 0.45 0.11 0 .1916 0.0886
CLISOT H 20 97 665024 0.99 0.62 0.36 0.02 0.35 0.04 0 .5064 0.2031 TLJUAL 20 7. 7427E8 1.00 0.58 0.41 0.01 0.40 0.02 0 .3118 0.1356
220
SUBPRT 20 3 7997.0 0.93 0.48 0.38 0.14 0.29 0.23 0 .7717 0.2896 SUBPIN D 20 2 9985.4 0.94 0.49 0.37 0.14 0.30 0.21 0 .7732 0.2897
SUBPOT H 20 1 7945.2 0.92 0.47 0.34 0.19 0.25 0.28 0 .8955 0.3426 SUBRT 20 2. 7001E8 0.96 0.42 0.55 0.03 0.51 0.07 1 .2910 0.3981
SUBIND 20 1. 3741E8 0.96 0.43 0.53 0.04 0.49 0.08 1 .1159 0.3639 SUBOTH 20 49 798506 0.94 0.38 0.58 0.04 0.53 0.09 1 .6813 0.4710
SUBLST R 20 1. 2357E9 0.96 0.41 0.55 0.03 0.51 0.07 1 .2913 0.3987 HJTLRT 20 116604 -0.70 0.52 0.31 0.17 0.19 0.29 0 .8676 0.6827
HJTLIN D 20 103112 -0.17 0.53 0.05 0.42 0.31 0.17 0 .7605 0.5747 HJTLOT H 20 7 8698.4 0.88 0.53 0.30 0.17 0.43 0.05 0 .5238 0.3441
AVHJTL 20 9 9422.3 0.01 0.52 0.01 0.47 0.34 0.14 0 .7246 0.5355 PENPJK 20 1. 179E11 0.98 0.55 0.43 0.02 0.41 0.04 1 .0454 0.3457
PENPEM 20 1. 179E11 0.98 0.55 0.42 0.03 0.40 0.05 0 .7387 0.2716 BLJLAI N 20 1. 8256E9 1.00 0.55 0.42 0.03 0.41 0.04 0 .1979 0.0902
GOVEXP 20 5. 9408E9 1.00 0.50 0.49 0.01 0.48 0.02 0 .3198 0.1380 CONLIS 20 1. 1866E9 0.84 0.43 0.31 0.26 0.50 0.07 0 .6881 0.5095
CONLAI N 20 2. 484E12 0.98 0.64 0.34 0.02 0.32 0.04 0 .9699 0.3289 CONRT 20 2. 384E12 0.98 0.64 0.34 0.02 0.32 0.04 0 .9220 0.3178
INV 20 1 .07E12 0.97 0.51 0.47 0.02 0.45 0.03 1 .3054 0.3977 EKSPOR 20 1. 764E10 0.96 0.01 0.06 0.93 0.14 0.85 0 .1691 0.0855
IMPOR 20 1. 988E10 0.97 0.04 0.32 0.65 0.21 0.76 0 .2024 0.0996 PDB 20 6. 888E12 0.98 0.62 0.35 0.02 0.33 0.04 0 .9428 0.3229
RPDB 20 5. 484E12 0.89 0.67 0.32 0.01 0.29 0.04 1 .4141 0.4198 GROWTH 20 640.7 -0.16 0.06 0.88 0.06 0.41 0.53 2 .6242 0.7053
PDBKPT 20 139.6 0.97 0.64 0.34 0.03 0.31 0.05 0 .9617 0.3274 KURS 20 4 198887 0.93 0.27 0.36 0.37 0.51 0.22 0 .2648 0.1470
IHK 20 525.9 0.99 0.38 0.54 0.09 0.56 0.06 0 .1789 0.0972 INFLAS I 20 2 7.9822 0.95 0.07 0.16 0.77 0.28 0.65 0 .2724 0.1479
SKBG 20 1 6.3471 0.89 0.07 0.14 0.79 0.35 0.58 0 .2403 0.1277 STK 20 1 675786 0.99 0.04 0.08 0.88 0.05 0.91 0 .0132 0.0066
DTK 20 1. 3308E8 0.97 0.65 0.32 0.03 0.30 0.05 0 .1267 0.0601 UNEMPL 20 1. 2223E8 -0.44 0.66 0.28 0.06 0.02 0.32 1 .4385 0.8789
RUPH 20 4958.2 0.73 0.12 0.01 0.87 0.21 0.67 0 .1097 0.0540 MISKOT A 20 26 598790 0.31 0.61 0.18 0.21 0.01 0.38 0 .4273 0.2527
MISDES A 20 98 524065 0.54 0.64 0.22 0.13 0.08 0.28 0 .4102 0.2389 PMISKI N 20 2. 2307E8 0.47 0.64 0.22 0.14 0.06 0.30 0 .4129 0.2417
TMISKI N 20 4 4.8228 0.69 0.67 0.23 0.10 0.11 0.22 0 .3843 0.2215
221
Lampiran 9. Prog ram Peramalan Variabel Endogen Tahun 2011-2015 Model Subsidi Harga Listrik mengg unakan Metode Newton
dan Pros edur SIMNLIN denga n Program SASETS versi 9.1
options nodate nonumber; LIBNAME IN C:\Disertasi;
data datapln; set in.datapln1;
PRODSDR
= TLSDR+TLSEWA; PRODTL
= PRODSDR+TLBELI; TLJUAL
= CLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH; SUSUT
= PRODTL-TLJUAL-CLISDR; AVHJTL
= HJTLRTCLISRT+HJTLINDCLISIND+ HJTLOTHCLISOTHCLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH;
BPP = BOPTLJUAL1000;
CONLIS = HJTLRTCLISRT + HJTLINDCLISIND+
HJTLOTHCLISOTH1000; CONRT
= CONLIS + CONLAIN; NETEKS
= EKSPOR-IMPOR; PDB
= CONRT + INV + GOVEXP + EKSPOR - IMPOR; RPDB
= PDB100IHK; PDBKPT
= PDBPOP; PDBL
= PDB-PDBI; HJTLRT
= BPP1+m100-SUBPRT;
HJTLIND = BPP1+m100-SUBPIND;
HJTLOTH = BPP1+m100-SUBPOTH;
PENPEM = PENPJK+PENNPJK;
CLAIN = CPLHR+CPGW+CSUSUT+COTH;
CBBM = QBBMPBBM1000000;
CBTB = QBTBPBTB1000000;
CGAS = QGASPGAS1000000;
PMISKIN = MISKOTA + MISDESA;
TMISKIN = MISKOTA+MISDESAPOP100;
BLJSUB = SUBLSTR + SUBLAIN1000;
PENPEM = PENPJK + PENNPJK;
UNEMPL = STK-DTK;
if tahun=1998 then D98=1; else D98=0;
if tahun=2008 then D08=1; else D08=0;
if tahun=2005 then D05=1; else D05=0;
if tahun=2004 then D04=1; else D04=0;
if tahun=2009 then D09=1; else D09=0;
if tahun=1997 or tahun=1998 or tahun=1999 then D9799=1; else D9799=0;
if tahun=2002 then D02=1; else D02=0;
LIHK = lagihk;
LPDB = lagpdb;
INFLASI = IHK - LIHKLIHK100;
RPDB = PDB100IHK;
222
LRPDB = lagrpdb;
GROWTH = RPDB - LRPDBLRPDB100;
run; proc simnlin data=datapln dynamic simulate stat outpredict theil;
endogenous prodsdr qbbm qbtb qgas pbbm pbtb pgas cbbm cbtb cgas
tlbeli prodtl bop bpp clisrt clisind clisoth tljual susut subprt subpind subpoth subrt subind suboth
sublstr hjtlrt hjtlind hjtloth avhjtl penpjk penpem bljlain govexp conlis conlain conrt inv ekspor impor
pdb rpdb growth pdbkpt kurs ihk inflasi skbg stk dtk unempl ruph miskota misdesa pmiskin tmiskin;
exogenous pennpjk pop pdbi cplhr clain icp pdbtb pdgas clisdr cadev uangbr d98 d08 d05 d09 d9799 d02 d04;
LCLISRT = lagclisrt;
LCLISIND = lagclisind;
LCLISOTH = lagclisoth;
LBOP = lagbop;
LPBBM = lagpbbm;
LPBTB = lagpbtb;
LPGAS = lagpgas;
LQBBM = lagqbbm;
LQBTB = lagqbtb;
LQGAS = lagqgas;
LQBBM = lagqbbm;
LQBTB = lagqbtb;
LQGAS = lagqgas;
LPDB = lagpdb;
LKURS = lagkurs;
LIHK = lagihk;
LTLBELI = lagtlbeli;
LPRODSDR = lagprodsdr;
LMISKOTA = lagmiskota;
LMISDESA = lagmisdesa;
LSUBPRT = lagsubprt;
LSUBPIND = lagsubpind;
LSUBPOTH = lagsubpoth;
LPENPJK = lagpenpjk;
LSUBLSTR = lagsublstr;
LSTK = lagstk;
LDTK = lagdtk;
LRUPH = lagruph;
LCONLAIN = lagconlain;
LINV = laginv;
LBLJLAIN = lagbljlain;
LEKSPOR = lagekspor;
LIMPOR = lagimpor;
LSKBG = lagskbg;
LRPDB = lagrpdb;
parm a0 9012.079 a1 0.000248 a2 0.001461 a3 0.023578 a4 0.625091
b0 35351.62 b1 -59.6042 b2 18.00578 b3 942261.9 b4 0.812856 c0 -2301871 c1 -891.932 c2 105.1371 c3 148.7185 c4 0.538798
d0 7043.293 d1 -4.75730 d2 8.081043 d3 -0.04389 d4 -0.00730 d5 -37568.6
e0 -988.933 e1 66.37429 e2 0.024172 e3 1089.309 e4 0.237759 f0 -113.302 f1 2.588217 f2 0.010802 f3 0.019297 f4 0.601905
g0 -957.021 g1 763.6172 g2 0.107165 g3 0.042218 g4 19135.55 g5 8717.081 g6 0.857225
h0 -3780.01 h1 0.046545 h2 0.322728 h3 -2239.34 h4 0.851006 i0 -937.226 i1 0.731174 i2 0.969435 i3 1.197797 i4 1.583887
i5 0.808336 i6 5086.999 i7 0.001061 j0 -1009.26 j1 -2.01447 j2 463.1043 j3 0.536486 j4 -922.694
j5 0.511289 k0 -1958.22 k1 -4.82933 k2 0.003827 k3 158.1425 k4 -4582.81
k5 -4979.80 k6 0.900984
l0 -335.456 l1 -1.08605 l2 0.003633 l3 6.654027 l4 1514.473 l5 1082.157
m0 -45462.8 m1 0.101952 m2 4557.819 m3 -319936 m4 0.322897 n0 -4007.71 n1 0.036347 n2 193.8856 n3 103212.5 n4 0.924940
o0 -30.6897 o1 0.000438 o2 189.6783 o3 0.198539 p0 -39.8937 p1 0.000421 p2 209.7906 p3 0.134340
q0 -104.686 q1 0.000327 q2 202.1526 q3 0.110361 r0 -13586.9 r1 110048.9 r2 -26.5894 r3 54503.53 r4 133465.5
223
r5 0.1920218 s0 49424.32 s1 0.072185 s2 -3763.54 s3 -118044 s4 0.917795
t0 -26942.0 t1 13.10376 t2 253373.3 t3 0.998771 t4 329272.9 u0 -2641834 u1 19088.89 u2 -21.6170 u3 13.55890 u4 -1107300
u5 0.737583 v0 714.7607 v1 33.14076 v2 -0.06175 v3 1467.304 v4 0.665105
w0 5.563770 w1 -0.03242 w2 0.016741 w3 0.020046 w4 0.002428 w5 0.002050 w6 23.00031
w7 12.93938 w8 4.273269 w9 0.614920 x0 2.807472 x1 0.290601 x2 3.105602 x3 0.531885
y0 -35064.0 y1 4.919688 y2 0.462834 y3 0.014904 y4 -1837.59 y5 -2603.15 y6 0.347697
z0 86066.35 z1 -8.62850 z2 0.004586 z3 3177.572 aa0 263.2230 aa1 -0.00167 aa2 0.003455 aa3 -297.811 aa4 0.865321
ab0 10198.97 ab1 33.65109 ab2 -3.89511 ab3 0.430785 ab4 4274.466 ac0 8359.462 ac1 25.74496 ac2 -0.00616 ac3 0.435392 ac4 4623.263
ac5 0.524380; PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL;
BLOK PRODUKSI; Prodsdr
= a0 + a1qbbm + a2qbtb + a3qgas + a4lprodsdr; qbbm
= b0 + b1pbbm + b2prodsdr + b3d08 + b4lqbbm; qbtb
= c0 + c1pbtb + c2prodsdr + c3pbbm + c4lqbtb; qgas
= d0 + d1pgas + d2prodsdr + d3qbbm + d4qbtb + d5d9799;
pbbm = e0 + e1icp + e2kurs + e3d08 + e4lpbbm;
pbtb = f0 + f1pdbtb + f2kurs + f3pbbm + f4lpbtb;
pgas = g0 + g1pdgas + g2kurs + g3pbbm + g4d98 +
g5d09 + g6lpgas; tlbeli
= h0 + h1tljual + h2susut + h3d08 + h4ltlbeli; 2. BIAYA OPERASIONAL;
bop = i0 + i1tlbeli + i2cbbm + i3cbtb + i4cgas +
i5clain + i6d08 + i7lbop; BLOK KONSUMSI;
clisrt = j0 + j1hjtlrt + j2pdbkpt + j3pelrt + j4d98 +
j5lclisrt; clisind
= k0 + k1hjtlind + k2pdbi + k3pelind + k4d98 + k5d09 + k6lclisind;
clisoth = l0 + l1hjtloth + l2pdb-pdbi + l3peloth +
l4d05 + l5d08; BLOK HARGA JUAL;
penpjk = m0 + m1lpdb + m2inflasi + m3d98 + m4lpenpjk;
bljlain = n0 + n1penpem + n2ihk + n3d09 + n4lbljlain;
BLOK SUBSIDI; subprt
= o0 + o1penpem + o2d08 + o3lsubprt; subpind
= p0 + p1penpem + p2d08 + p3lsubpind; subpoth
= q0 + q1penpem + q2d08 + q3lsubpoth; BLOK INDIKATOR EKONOMI;
conlain = r0 + r1pdbkpt + r2inflasi + r3d98 + r4d08 +
r5lconlain; inv
= s0 + s1pdb + s2skbg + s3d04 + s4linv; ekspor
= t0 + t1kurs + t2d98 + t3lekspor; impor
= u0 + u1inflasi + u2kurs + u3pop + u4d98 +
224
u5limpor; kurs
= v0 + v1ihk + v2cadev + v3d9799 + v4lkurs; ihk
= w0 + w1skbg + w2uangbr + w3avhjtl + w4pbbm + w5kurs + w6d98 + w7d05 + w8d02 + w9lihk;
skbg = x0 + x1inflasi + x2d9799 + x3lskbg;
BLOK TENAGA KERJA; stk
= y0 + y1ruph + y2pop + y3bljlain-lbljlain + y4d04 + y5d09 + y6lstk;
dtk = z0 + z1ruph + z2pdb + z3d9799;
ruph = aa0 + aa1lstk + aa2dtk-ldtk + aa3d98 +
aa4lruph; BLOK KEMISKINAN;
miskota = ab0 + ab1inflasi + ab2ruph + ab3unempl +
ab4d9799; misdesa
= ac0 + ac1inflasi + ac2govexp + ac3unempl + ac4d9799 + ac5lmisdesa;
PERSAMAAN IDENTITAS; CBBM
= QBBMPBBM1000000; CBTB
= QBTBPBTB1000000; CGAS
= QGASPGAS1000000; PRODTL
= PRODSDR+TLBELI; BPP
= BOPTLJUAL1000; TLJUAL
= CLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH; SUSUT
= PRODTL-TLJUAL-CLISDR; SUBRT
= SUBPRT CLISRT1000; SUBIND
= SUBPIND CLISIND1000; SUBOTH
= SUBPOTH CLISOTH1000; SUBLSTR
= SUBRT + SUBIND + SUBOTH; HJTLRT
= BPP1+m100-SUBPRT;
HJTLIND = BPP1+m100-SUBPIND;
HJTLOTH = BPP1+m100-SUBPOTH;
AVHJTL = HJTLRTCLISRT+HJTLINDCLISIND+
HJTLOTHCLISOTHCLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH; PENPEM
= PENPJK + PENNPJK; GOVEXP
= BLJLAIN + SUBLSTR; CONLIS
= HJTLRTCLISRT+HJTLINDCLISIND+ HJTLOTHCLISOTH1000;
CONRT = CONLIS + CONLAIN;
PDB = CONRT + INV + GOVEXP + EKSPOR - IMPOR;
RPDB = PDB100IHK;
GROWTH = RPDB-LRPDBLRPDB100;
PDBKPT = PDBPOP;
INFLASI = IHK-LIHKLIHK100;
UNEMPL = STK-DTK;
PMISKIN = MISKOTA + MISDESA;
TMISKIN = MISKOTA+MISDESAPOP100;
RANGE TAHUN=2011 to 2015; run;
proc print data=endo_pln; run;
225
Lampiran 10. Hasil Pe ramalan Variabel Endogen Tahun 2011-2015 Model Subsidi Harga Listrik mengg unakan Metode Newton dan
Pros edur SIMNLIN denga n Program SASETS versi 9.1
Th e S AS Sy st e m Th e S IM N LI N P ro c ed ur e
Mo de l S u mm ar y Mo de l V a ri ab l es 7 4
En do g en o us 5 6 Ex og e no u s
18 Pa ra m et e rs 16 0
Ra ng e V a ri ab l e T A HU N Eq ua t io n s 5 6
Nu mb e r o f St a te m en ts 9 1 Pr og r am La g L en g th 1
Th e S AS Sy st e m The SIMNLI N Proce dure
Dynamic Simulta neous S imulatio n D ata Set Option s
D ATA= RAMAL O UT= ENDO_P LN
Solutio n Summa ry V ariables Solved 56
S imulatio n Lag L ength 1 S olution Range TA HUN
F irst 2 011 L ast 2 015
S olution Method NEW TON C ONVERGE= 1 E-8
M aximum C C 3.322 E-9 M aximum I teratio ns 4
T otal Ite rations 20 A verage I teratio ns 4
Obs ervatio ns Proc essed Read 6
Lagge d 1 Solve d 5
First 22 Last 26
226
The SA S Syste m Obs TAHUN _TYPE_ _MODE _ _LA G_ _ERR ORS_ PRODSDR Q BBM QBT B QGAS
1 2011 PREDICT SIMULA TE 0 0 1 38352.3 9 9713 935.08 2550435 5.03 3 11248.82 2 2012 PREDICT SIMULA TE 1 0 1 45540.4 0 10127 012.05 2713855 7.17 3 34402.97
3 2013 PREDICT SIMULA TE 2 0 1 53239.6 5 10575 354.61 2886007 8.69 3 58991.92 4 2014 PREDICT SIMULA TE 3 0 1 61298.3 9 11061 525.03 3065855 3.60 3 80107.93
5 2015 PREDICT SIMULA TE 4 0 1 69734.4 9 11584 268.50 3254140 2.89 4 02084.38 Obs PBBM PBTB PGAS CB BM C BTB CGAS TLBELI PRO DTL BOP BPP
1 6583.22 703.74 0 42313. 85 6394 8.95 179 48.44 1 3170.14 40336.9 8 17868 9.37 168 150.05 1055.47 2 7129.34 743.58 4 43338. 13 7219 8.87 201 79.80 1 4492.40 42031.6 3 18757 2.02 185 871.11 1093.17
3 7566.56 781.12 5 44469. 90 8001 9.07 225 43.32 1 5964.33 43543.8 4 19678 3.49 202 916.58 1126.30 4 7958.67 819.99 0 46475. 28 8803 5.07 251 39.71 1 7665.62 45120.6 2 20641 9.01 220 999.44 1163.90
5 8367.06 857.93 7 48473. 88 9692 6.27 279 18.48 1 9490.59 46911.8 6 21664 6.34 241 386.63 1207.99 Obs CLISRT CLIS IND CLI SOTH TLJUAL SUSUT SUBP RT SUBPI ND SUBP OTH SU BRT S UBIND
1 64225.4 5 54754 .84 4033 2.46 15 9312.75 13320.0 0 552.4 63 487.6 02 282. 506 3548 2.21 26 698.60 2 68273.8 8 58447 .16 4330 7.91 17 0028.95 11063.8 9 627.5 62 552.8 86 336. 038 4284 6.09 32 314.60
3 71911.5 6 62113 .33 4613 7.33 18 0162.22 9819.5 2 696.7 87 613.8 63 382. 496 5010 7.07 38 129.08 4 75179.5 6 65758 .98 4893 9.73 18 9878.26 9316.4 5 764.1 60 673.6 02 427. 661 5744 9.21 44 295.37
5 78692.8 7 69368 .85 5176 3.42 19 9825.14 9274.3 4 829.3 69 731.4 48 471. 342 6526 5.39 50 739.70 Obs SUBOTH SUB LSTR HJTLRT HJTLIND HJTLO TH AV HJTL PENPJK PEN PEM BLJLAIN
1 11394.1 5 735 74.96 5 87.446 652.307 857.4 04 678 .082 8 70731.2 9 11150 20.36 566776.6 3 2 14553.0 9 897 13.78 5 53.065 627.742 844.5 90 652 .989 10 02936.6 2 12524 34.26 613725.6 8
3 17647.3 4 1058 83.49 5 19.616 602.540 833.9 07 628 .691 11 24143.3 5 13764 41.92 663825.1 5 4 20929.6 1 1226 74.18 4 92.853 583.411 829.3 52 610 .945 12 39963.1 0 14988 81.62 716753.7 3
5 24398.2 9 1404 03.38 4 75.260 573.181 833.2 86 601 .997 13 55260.9 7 16172 20.71 772190.9 9 O b s G O V E X P C O N L I S C O N L A I N C O N R T I N V E K S P O R I M P O R P D B
1 6 4 0 3 5 1 . 5 8 1 0 8 0 2 7 . 10 4 0 3 0 3 0 6 . 9 1 4 1 3 8 3 3 4 . 0 1 2 4 6 2 9 3 7 . 6 9 1 6 6 1 4 5 7 . 65 1 5 9 8 2 8 6 . 5 7 7 3 0 4 7 9 4 . 3 8 2 7 0 3 4 3 9 . 4 6 1 1 1 0 2 7 . 02 4 4 3 0 2 1 3 . 2 1 4 5 4 1 2 4 0 . 2 3 2 8 6 2 8 1 5 . 7 3 1 7 3 6 5 5 4 . 24 1 7 5 0 3 0 5 . 8 8 8 0 9 3 7 4 3 . 7 7
3 7 6 9 7 0 8 . 6 4 1 1 3 2 6 6 . 42 4 7 9 1 7 4 7 . 6 4 4 9 0 5 0 1 4 . 0 6 3 2 8 4 0 8 2 . 9 3 1 8 0 8 6 2 4 . 92 1 9 1 0 3 3 5 . 2 8 8 8 5 7 0 9 5 . 2 6 4 8 3 9 4 2 7 . 9 2 1 1 6 0 0 5 . 22 5 1 3 9 5 0 7 . 7 0 5 2 5 5 5 1 2 . 9 2 3 7 2 6 0 1 2 . 5 6 1 8 8 0 0 8 9 . 98 2 0 7 5 5 6 1 . 3 7 9 6 2 5 4 8 2 . 0 0
5 9 1 2 5 9 4 . 3 7 1 2 0 2 9 4 . 18 5 4 8 3 4 8 9 . 3 9 5 6 0 3 7 8 3 . 5 7 4 1 8 8 2 8 4 . 6 0 1 9 5 1 8 4 0 . 04 2 2 4 6 1 1 8 . 2 4 1 0 4 1 0 3 8 4 . 3 4 Obs RPDB GR OWTH PD BKPT KURS IHK INFLASI SKBG STK D TK UNEMPL
1 3097799 .53 8.5 9547 305 72.35 8 358.26 2 35.806 4.84886 7.67381 120003 .25 1137 35.90 6 267.35 2 3270873 .90 5.5 8701 333 49.03 7 942.80 2 47.449 4.93756 8.32392 122938 .66 1174 85.43 5 453.23
3 3424670 .77 4.7 0201 359 36.36 7 718.92 2 58.626 4.51698 8.54748 125659 .78 1211 44.86 4 514.93 4 3569490 .54 4.2 2872 384 65.52 7 679.46 2 69.660 4.26625 8.59352 128293 .22 1248 44.03 3 449.20
5 3706019 .54 3.8 2489 409 84.41 7 707.92 2 80.905 4.17003 8.59005 130885 .28 1286 30.66 2 254.62 Obs RUPH MISK OTA MI SDESA PMISKIN TMISK IN PE NNPJK POP P DBI CPLHR
1 675.695 10430 .11 177 15.71 28145.82 11.77 97 244 289.07 238934. 69 1591 058.90 10901.0 1 2 660.466 10141 .71 158 17.45 25959.16 10.69 61 249 497.64 242697. 99 1606 124.61 11936.3 5
3 642.074 9794 .99 139 94.46 23789.45 9.65 22 252 298.57 246466. 11 1635 148.97 12968.7 7 4 621.752 9406 .61 121 38.59 21545.19 8.60 99 258 918.52 250236. 64 1674 816.60 13971.0 2
5 600.071 8973 .21 101 92.11 19165.32 7.54 52 261 959.74 254008. 38 1722 599.55 14923.5 2 Obs CLAIN ICP PDBT B PDG AS CLI SDR C ADEV UANGBR D98 D08 D05 D09 D9799 D02
1 43401.2 4 90.2 06 78.99 02 7.6 578 6056 .62 100 627.74 2716.90 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 47974.7 9 95.8 36 81.10 94 8.9 973 6479 .18 105 777.04 3014.80 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 51905.5 8 100.5 49 84.02 23 9.3 368 6801 .74 110 926.35 3248.32 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 56032.9 6 104.9 04 87.54 94 10.6 763 7224 .30 115 075.65 3466.14 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 61253.4 4 109.6 42 90.00 91 11.0 158 7546 .87 120 224.95 3680.55 0 0 0 0 0 0 Obs D04 LPDB LIHK LR PDB PEL RT PELIND PELO TH m
1 0 6415530 .30 2 24.901 28526 04.74 40396 .38 4 9.5593 3132. 10 8 2 0 7304794 .38 2 35.806 30977 99.53 41222 .76 5 0.3159 3154. 65 8
227
3 0 8093743 .77 2 47.449 32708 73.90 41786 .02 5 0.9903 3177. 19 8 4 0 8857095 .26 2 58.626 34246 70.77 42126 .97 5 1.6119 3199. 74 8
5 0 9625482 .00 2 69.660 35694 90.54 43320 .80 5 2.1996 3222. 28 8
228
Lampiran 11. Prog ram Simulasi Model Subsidi Harga Listrik Tahun 2011- 2015 mengg unakan Metode Newton dan Prosedur SIMNLIN
denga n Program SASETS versi 9.1
Simulasi 2a
options nodate nonumber; LIBNAME IN C:\Disertasi;
data datapln; set in.datapln1;
PRODSDR
= TLSDR+TLSEWA; PRODTL
= PRODSDR+TLBELI; TLJUAL
= CLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH; SUSUT
= PRODTL-TLJUAL-CLISDR; AVHJTL
= HJTLRTCLISRT+HJTLINDCLISIND+ HJTLOTHCLISOTHCLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH;
BPP = BOPTLJUAL1000;
CONLIS = HJTLRTCLISRT + HJTLINDCLISIND+
HJTLOTHCLISOTH1000; CONRT
= CONLIS + CONLAIN; NETEKS
= EKSPOR-IMPOR; PDB
= CONRT + INV + GOVEXP + EKSPOR - IMPOR; RPDB
= PDB100IHK; PDBKPT
= PDBPOP; PDBL
= PDB-PDBI; HJTLRT
= BPP1+m100-SUBPRT;
HJTLIND = BPP1+m100-SUBPIND;
HJTLOTH = BPP1+m100-SUBPOTH;
PENPEM = PENPJK+PENNPJK;
CLAIN = CPLHR+CPGW+CSUSUT+COTH;
CBBM = QBBMPBBM1000000;
CBTB = QBTBPBTB1000000;
CGAS = QGASPGAS1000000;
PMISKIN = MISKOTA + MISDESA;
TMISKIN = MISKOTA+MISDESAPOP100;
BLJSUB = SUBLSTR + SUBLAIN1000;
PENPEM = PENPJK + PENNPJK;
UNEMPL = STK-DTK;
if tahun=1998 then D98=1; else D98=0;
if tahun=2008 then D08=1; else D08=0;
if tahun=2005 then D05=1; else D05=0;
if tahun=2004 then D04=1; else D04=0;
if tahun=2009 then D09=1; else D09=0;
if tahun=1997 or tahun=1998 or tahun=1999 then D9799=1; else D9799=0;
if tahun=2002 then D02=1; else D02=0;
LIHK = lagihk;
LPDB = lagpdb;
229
INFLASI = IHK - LIHKLIHK100;
RPDB = PDB100IHK;
LRPDB = lagrpdb;
GROWTH = RPDB - LRPDBLRPDB100;
Simulasi 1a: Subsidi naik 10; SUBPRT
= 1.1SUBPRT; SUBPIND
= 1.1SUBPIND; SUBPOTH
= 1.1SUBPOTH; Simulasi 1b: Subsidi turun 10;
SUBPRT = 0.9SUBPRT;
SUBPIND = 0.9SUBPIND;
SUBPOTH = 0.9SUBPOTH;
Simulasi 1c: Subsidi turun 10 dan dialihkan ke belanja lainnya; SUBPRT
= 0.9SUBPRT; SUBPIND
= 0.9SUBPIND; SUBPOTH
= 0.9SUBPOTH; BLJLAIN
= 1.01507BLJLAIN; Simulasi 1d: Harga jual tenaga listrik dinaikkan 10;
SUBPRT = 0.924276041SUBPRT;
SUBPIND = 0.900670044SUBPIND;
SUBPOTH = 0.779026316SUBPOTH;
HJTLRT = 1.1HJTLRT;
HJTLIND = 1.1HJTLIND;
HJTLOTH = 1.1HJTLOTH;
Simulasi 2a: ICP naik 10; ICP
= 1.1ICP; Simulasi 2b: ICP naik 10 dan harga jual tenaga listrik tetap;
ICP = 1.1ICP ;
SUBPRT = 1.075526SUBPRT;
SUBPIND = 1.086092SUBPIND;
SUBPOTH = 1.141369SUBPOTH;
Simulasi 2c: ICP naik 10 dan Besaran subsidi listrik tetap; ICP
= 1.1 ICP ; Simulasi 2d: Rupah melemah 10 terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat;
KURS = 1.1KURS ;
Simulasi 3a: Susut tenaga listrik berkurang 10; SUSUT
= 0.9SUSUT; Simulasi 3b: Margin usaha PLN dikurangi 1;
M = M - 1;
Simulasi 3c: Simulasi 3a + Simulasi 3b; SUSUT
= 0.9SUSUT; M
= M - 1; run;
230
proc simnlin data=datapln dynamic simulate stat outpredict theil; endogenous prodsdr qbbm qbtb qgas pbbm pbtb pgas cbbm cbtb cgas
tlbeli prodtl bop bpp clisrt clisind clisoth tljual susut subprt subpind subpoth subrt subind suboth
sublstr hjtlrt hjtlind hjtloth avhjtl penpjk penpem bljlain govexp conlis conlain conrt inv ekspor impor
pdb rpdb growth pdbkpt kurs ihk inflasi skbg stk dtk unempl ruph miskota misdesa pmiskin tmiskin;
exogenous susut pennpjk pop pdbi cplhr clain icp pdbtb pdgas clisdr cadev uangbr d98 d08 d05 d09 d9799 d02 d04;
LCLISRT = lagclisrt;
LCLISIND = lagclisind;
LCLISOTH = lagclisoth;
LBOP = lagbop;
LPBBM = lagpbbm;
LPBTB = lagpbtb;
LPGAS = lagpgas;
LQBBM = lagqbbm;
LQBTB = lagqbtb;
LQGAS = lagqgas;
LQBBM = lagqbbm;
LQBTB = lagqbtb;
LQGAS = lagqgas;
LPDB = lagpdb;
LKURS = lagkurs;
LIHK = lagihk;
LTLBELI = lagtlbeli;
LPRODSDR = lagprodsdr;
LMISKOTA = lagmiskota;
LMISDESA = lagmisdesa;
LSUBPRT = lagsubprt;
LSUBPIND = lagsubpind;
LSUBPOTH = lagsubpoth;
LPENPJK = lagpenpjk;
LSUBLSTR = lagsublstr;
LSTK = lagstk;
LDTK = lagdtk;
LRUPH = lagruph;
LCONLAIN = lagconlain;
LINV = laginv;
LBLJLAIN = lagbljlain;
LEKSPOR = lagekspor;
LIMPOR = lagimpor;
LSKBG = lagskbg;
LRPDB = lagrpdb;
parm a0 9012.079 a1 0.000248 a2 0.001461 a3 0.023578 a4 0.625091
b0 35351.62 b1 -59.6042 b2 18.00578 b3 942261.9 b4 0.812856 c0 -2301871 c1 -891.932 c2 105.1371 c3 148.7185 c4 0.538798
d0 7043.293 d1 -4.75730 d2 8.081043 d3 -0.04389 d4 -0.00730 d5 -37568.6
e0 -988.933 e1 66.37429 e2 0.024172 e3 1089.309 e4 0.237759
f0 -113.302 f1 2.588217 f2 0.010802 f3 0.019297 f4 0.601905 g0 -957.021 g1 763.6172 g2 0.107165 g3 0.042218 g4 19135.55
g5 8717.081 g6 0.857225 h0 -3780.01 h1 0.046545 h2 0.322728 h3 -2239.34 h4 0.851006
i0 -937.226 i1 0.731174 i2 0.969435 i3 1.197797 i4 1.583887 i5 0.808336 i6 5086.999 i7 0.001061
j0 -1009.26 j1 -2.01447 j2 463.1043 j3 0.536486 j4 -922.694 j5 0.511289
k0 -1958.22 k1 -4.82933 k2 0.003827 k3 158.1425 k4 -4582.81 k5 -4979.80 k6 0.900984
l0 -335.456 l1 -1.08605 l2 0.003633 l3 6.654027 l4 1514.473 l5 1082.157
m0 -45462.8 m1 0.101952 m2 4557.819 m3 -319936 m4 0.322897 n0 -4007.71 n1 0.036347 n2 193.8856 n3 103212.5 n4 0.924940
o0 -30.6897 o1 0.000438 o2 189.6783 o3 0.198539 p0 -39.8937 p1 0.000421 p2 209.7906 p3 0.134340
q0 -104.686 q1 0.000327 q2 202.1526 q3 0.110361 r0 -13586.9 r1 110048.9 r2 -26.5894 r3 54503.53 r4 133465.5
r5 0.1920218 s0 49424.32 s1 0.072185 s2 -3763.54 s3 -118044 s4 0.917795
t0 -26942.0 t1 13.10376 t2 253373.3 t3 0.998771 t4 329272.9 u0 -2641834 u1 19088.89 u2 -21.6170 u3 13.55890 u4 -1107300
u5 0.737583
231
v0 714.7607 v1 33.14076 v2 -0.06175 v3 1467.304 v4 0.665105 w0 5.563770 w1 -0.03242 w2 0.016741 w3 0.020046 w4 0.002428
w5 0.002050 w6 23.00031 w7 12.93938 w8 4.273269 w9 0.614920
x0 2.807472 x1 0.290601 x2 3.105602 x3 0.531885 y0 -35064.0 y1 4.919688 y2 0.462834 y3 0.014904 y4 -1837.59
y5 -2603.15 y6 0.347697 z0 86066.35 z1 -8.62850 z2 0.004586 z3 3177.572
aa0 263.2230 aa1 -0.00167 aa2 0.003455 aa3 -297.811 aa4 0.865321 ab0 10198.97 ab1 33.65109 ab2 -3.89511 ab3 0.430785 ab4 4274.466
ac0 8359.462 ac1 25.74496 ac2 -0.00616 ac3 0.435392 ac4 4623.263 ac5 0.524380;
PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL; BLOK PRODUKSI;
Prodsdr
= a0 + a1qbbm + a2qbtb + a3qgas + a4lprodsdr; qbbm
= b0 + b1pbbm + b2prodsdr + b3d08 + b4lqbbm; qbtb
= c0 + c1pbtb + c2prodsdr + c3pbbm + c4lqbtb; qgas
= d0 + d1pgas + d2prodsdr + d3qbbm + d4qbtb + d5d9799;
pbbm = e0 + e1icp + e2kurs + e3d08 + e4lpbbm;
pbtb = f0 + f1pdbtb + f2kurs + f3pbbm + f4lpbtb;
pgas = g0 + g1pdgas + g2kurs + g3pbbm + g4d98 +
g5d09 + g6lpgas; tlbeli
= h0 + h1tljual + h2susut + h3d08 + h4ltlbeli; 2. BIAYA OPERASIONAL;
bop = i0 + i1tlbeli + i2cbbm + i3cbtb + i4cgas +
i5clain + i6d08 + i7lbop; BLOK KONSUMSI;
clisrt = j0 + j1hjtlrt + j2pdbkpt + j3pelrt + j4d98 +
j5lclisrt; clisind
= k0 + k1hjtlind + k2pdbi + k3pelind + k4d98 + k5d09 + k6lclisind;
clisoth = l0 + l1hjtloth + l2pdb-pdbi + l3peloth +
l4d05 + l5d08; BLOK HARGA JUAL;
penpjk = m0 + m1lpdb + m2inflasi + m3d98 + m4lpenpjk;
bljlain = n0 + n1penpem + n2ihk + n3d09 + n4lbljlain;
BLOK SUBSIDI; subprt
= o0 + o1penpem + o2d08 + o3lsubprt; subpind
= p0 + p1penpem + p2d08 + p3lsubpind; subpoth
= q0 + q1penpem + q2d08 + q3lsubpoth; BLOK INDIKATOR EKONOMI;
conlain = r0 + r1pdbkpt + r2inflasi + r3d98 + r4d08 +
r5lconlain; inv
= s0 + s1pdb + s2skbg + s3d04 + s4linv; ekspor
= t0 + t1kurs + t2d98 + t3lekspor; impor
= u0 + u1inflasi + u2kurs + u3pop + u4d98 + u5limpor;
kurs = v0 + v1ihk + v2cadev + v3d9799 + v4lkurs;
ihk = w0 + w1skbg + w2uangbr + w3avhjtl + w4pbbm +
w5kurs + w6d98 + w7d05 + w8d02 + w9lihk; skbg
= x0 + x1inflasi + x2d9799 + x3lskbg;
232
BLOK TENAGA KERJA; stk
= y0 + y1ruph + y2pop + y3bljlain-lbljlain + y4d04 + y5d09 + y6lstk;
dtk = z0 + z1ruph + z2pdb + z3d9799;
ruph = aa0 + aa1lstk + aa2dtk-ldtk + aa3d98 +
aa4lruph; BLOK KEMISKINAN;
miskota = ab0 + ab1inflasi + ab2ruph + ab3unempl +
ab4d9799; misdesa
= ac0 + ac1inflasi + ac2govexp + ac3unempl + ac4d9799 + ac5lmisdesa;
PERSAMAAN IDENTITAS; CBBM
= QBBMPBBM1000000; CBTB
= QBTBPBTB1000000; CGAS
= QGASPGAS1000000; PRODTL
= PRODSDR+TLBELI; BPP
= BOPTLJUAL1000; TLJUAL
= CLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH; SUSUT
= PRODTL-TLJUAL-CLISDR; SUBRT
= SUBPRT CLISRT1000; SUBIND
= SUBPIND CLISIND1000; SUBOTH
= SUBPOTH CLISOTH1000; SUBLSTR
= SUBRT + SUBIND + SUBOTH; HJTLRT
= BPP1+m100-SUBPRT;
HJTLIND = BPP1+m100-SUBPIND;
HJTLOTH = BPP1+m100-SUBPOTH;
AVHJTL = HJTLRTCLISRT+HJTLINDCLISIND+
HJTLOTHCLISOTHCLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH; PENPEM
= PENPJK + PENNPJK; GOVEXP
= BLJLAIN + SUBLSTR; CONLIS
= HJTLRTCLISRT+HJTLINDCLISIND+ HJTLOTHCLISOTH1000;
CONRT = CONLIS + CONLAIN;
PDB = CONRT + INV + GOVEXP + EKSPOR - IMPOR;
RPDB = PDB100IHK;
GROWTH = RPDB-LRPDBLRPDB100;
PDBKPT = PDBPOP;
INFLASI = IHK-LIHKLIHK100;
UNEMPL = STK-DTK;
PMISKIN = MISKOTA + MISDESA;
TMISKIN = MISKOTA+MISDESAPOP100;
RANGE TAHUN=2011 to 2015; run;
233
Lampiran 12. Hasil Simulasi Peramalan Model Subsidi Harga Listrik Tahun 2011-2015 mengg unakan Metode Newton dan
Pros edur SIMNLIN denga n Program SASETS versi 9.1 Simulasi 2a
The SA S Syste m The SIMNLI N Proce dure
Model Summary Model V ariable s 74
Endogen ous 56 Exogeno us 18
Paramet ers 160 Range V ariable TAHUN
Equatio ns 56 Number of Stat ements 91
Program Lag Le ngth 1 The SA S Syste m
The SIMNLI N Proce dure Dynamic Simulta neous S imulatio n
Data Se t Optio ns DATA= DATA1
OUT= SIM_P LN Solutio n Summa ry
V ariables Solved 56 S imulatio n Lag L ength 1
S olution Range TA HUN F irst 2 011
L ast 2 015 S olution Method NEW TON
C ONVERGE= 1 E-8 M aximum C C 2.51 E-9
M aximum I teratio ns 3 T otal Ite rations 13
A verage I teratio ns 2.6 Obs ervatio ns Proc essed
Read 6 Lagge d 1
Solve d 5 First 22
Last 26
234
The SA S Syste m The SIMNLI N Proce dure
Dynamic Simulta neous S imulatio n So lution R ange TA HUN = 2 011 To 2 015
Desc riptive Statis tics Ac tual Pred icted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev La bel PRODSDR 5 5 153633 1242 1.3 154648 1314 6.2
QBBM 5 5 1 0612419 740 009 1 0535547 712 996 QB BM QBTB 5 5 2 8940589 2782 929 2 9247720 2951 528 QB TB
QGAS 5 5 357367 3596 4.1 365893 4121 9.7 QG AS PBBM 5 5 7521.0 69 6.8 8347.2 83 6.3 PB BM
PBTB 5 5 781.3 60.8 445 816.3 77.7 097 PB TB PGAS 5 5 45014.2 247 4.9 45183.2 259 3.5 PG AS
CBBM 5 5 80225.6 1293 5.4 88412.6 1468 9.4 CBTB 5 5 22746.0 394 1.0 24058.5 468 6.7
CGAS 5 5 16156.6 250 5.9 16616.4 281 6.6 TLBELI 5 5 43589.0 256 8.6 46632.4 533 4.8 TL BELI
PRODTL 5 5 197222 1498 8.9 201280 1846 2.1 BOP 5 5 203865 2873 0.2 216336 3381 7.4 BO P
BPP 5 5 1129.4 59.4 853 1206.2 85.5 338 BP P CLISRT 5 5 71656.7 567 1.2 71342.3 558 3.1 CL ISRT
CLISIND 5 5 62088.6 577 7.5 61185.2 519 1.3 CL ISIND CLISOTH 5 5 46096.2 450 5.6 45961.0 458 7.1 CL ISOTH
TLJUAL 5 5 179841 1595 2.3 178489 1535 9.4 SUSUT 5 5 10558.8 170 4.3 15969.7 280 9.3 SU SUT
SUBPRT 5 5 694.1 10 9.2 695.4 10 8.5 SU BPRT SUBPIND 5 5 611.9 96.2 227 613.1 95.5 972 SU BPIND
SUBPOTH 5 5 380.0 74.2 615 380.9 73.7 755 SU BPOTH SUBRT 5 5 50230.0 1172 8.3 50094.4 1160 3.6 SU BRT
SUBIND 5 5 38435.5 950 0.6 37907.2 902 1.2 SU BIND SUBOTH 5 5 17784.5 512 1.8 17777.2 513 2.5 SU BOTH
SUBLSTR 5 5 106450 2634 9.8 105779 2575 6.7 SU BLSTR HJTLRT 5 5 525.6 45.3 363 607.3 16.9 399 HJ TLRT
HJTLIND 5 5 607.8 32.4 018 689.6 5.4 281 HJ TLIND HJTLOTH 5 5 839.7 11.3 919 921.8 19.1 932 HJ TLOTH
AVHJTL 5 5 634.5 31.1 698 716.5 5.1 161 PENPJK 5 5 1118607 190 778 1121102 189 351 PE NPJK
PENPEM 5 5 1372000 197 855 1374495 196 428 BLJLAIN 5 5 666654 8129 1.0 670183 8383 5.9 BL JLAIN
GOVEXP 5 5 773104 107 639 775962 109 590 GO VEXP CONLIS 5 5 113724 469 8.6 127864 1077 7.0
CONLAIN 5 5 4775053 571 959 4766659 584 785 CO NLAIN CONRT 5 5 4888777 576 615 4894523 595 530 CO NRT
INV 5 5 3304827 682 363 3295456 679 257 IN V EKSPOR 5 5 1807713 114 527 1819753 125 226 EK SPOR
IMPOR 5 5 1916121 256 352 1940072 253 886 IM POR PDB 5 5 8858300 1224 282 8845622 1255 504 PD B
RPDB 5 5 3413771 239 809 3310162 200 733 GROWTH 5 5 5.3876 1.9 095 4.5608 1.4 227 GR OWTH
PDBKPT 5 5 35861.5 410 2.4 35807.7 422 7.0 PD BKPT KURS 5 5 7881.5 28 6.5 8312.9 17 4.0 KU RS
IHK 5 5 258.5 17.7 741 266.2 21.7 955 IH K INFLASI 5 5 4.5479 0.3 411 5.4766 0.5 083
SKBG 5 5 8.3458 0.3 917 8.8124 0.4 715 SK BG STK 5 5 125556 428 9.2 125582 430 5.0 ST K
DTK 5 5 121168 587 3.7 121111 601 2.7 DT K UNEMPL 5 5 4387.9 159 0.2 4471.2 172 2.6
RUPH 5 5 640.0 30.1 026 639.9 29.5 711 RU PH MISKOTA 5 5 9749.3 57 8.6 9817.0 64 3.7 MI SKOTA
MISDESA 5 5 13971.7 296 1.0 14069.2 300 3.9 MI SDESA PMISKIN 5 5 23721.0 353 8.4 23886.2 364 4.0
TMISKIN 5 5 9.6566 1.6 690 9.7245 1.7 115 TM ISKIN
235
Lampiran 13. Hasil Peramalan Variabel Endoge n Tahun 2011-2015
ENDO- GEN
SATUAN 2011
2012 2013
2014 2015
Th PRODSDR GWh
138 352.4 145 540.4
153 239.6 161 298.4
169 734.5 5.24 QBBM
kliter 9 713 935.1 10 127 012.0 10 575 354.6 11 061 525.0 11 584 268.5 4.50
QBTB ton
25 504 355.0 27 138 557.2 28 860 078.7 30 658 553.6 32 541 402.9 6.28 QGAS
MMSCF 311 248.8
334 403.0 358 991.9
380 107.9 402 084.4 6.61
PBBM Rplt
6 583.2 7 129.3
7 566.6 7 958.7
8 367.1 6.19 PBTB
Rpkg 703.7
743.6 781.1
820.0 857.9 5.08
PGAS RpMSCF
42 313.8 43 338.1
44 469.9 46 475.3
48 473.9 3.46 CBBM
Miliar Rp 63 948.9
72 198.9 80 019.1
88 035.1 96 926.3 10.96
CBTB Miliar Rp
17 948.4 20 179.8
22 543.3 25 139.7
27 918.5 11.68 CGAS
Miliar Rp 13 170.1
14 492.4 15 964.3
17 665.6 19 490.6 10.30
TLBELI GWh
40 337.0 42 031.6
43 543.8 45 120.6
46 911.9 3.85 PRODTL
GWh 178 689.4
187 572.0 196 783.5
206 419.0 216 646.3 4.93
BOP Miliar Rp
168 150.1 185 871.1
202 916.6 220 999.4
241 386.6 9.46 BPP
Rupiah 1 055.5
1 093.2 1 126.3
1 163.9 1 208.0 3.43
CLISRT GWh
64 225.5 68 273.9
71 911.6 75 179.6
78 692.9 5.21 CLISIND
GWh 54 754.8
58 447.2 62 113.3
65 759.0 69 368.8 6.09
CLISOTH GWh 40 332.5
43 307.9 46 137.3
48 939.7 51 763.4 6.44
TLJUAL GWh
159 312.8 170 028.9
180 162.2 189 878.3
199 825.1 5.83 SUSUT
GWh 13 320.0
11 063.9 9 819.5
9 316.4 9 274.3 -8.44
SUBPRT Rupiah
552.5 627.6
696.8 764.2
829.4 10.71 SUBPIND Rupiah
487.6 552.9
613.9 673.6
731.4 10.68 SUBPOTH Rupiah
282.5 336.0
382.5 427.7
471.3 13.70 SUBRT
Miliar Rp 35 482.2
42 846.1 50 107.1
57 449.2 65 265.4 16.49
SUBIND Miliar Rp
26 698.6 32 314.6
38 129.1 44 295.4
50 739.7 17.44 SUBOTH
Miliar Rp 11 394.1
14 553.1 17 647.3
20 929.6 24 398.3 21.04
SUBLSTR Miliar Rp 73 575.0
89 713.8 105 883.5
122 674.2 140 403.4 17.57
HJTLRT Rupiah
587.4 553.1
519.6 492.9
475.3 -5.16 HJTLIND Rupiah
652.3 627.7
602.5 583.4
573.2 -3.18 HJTLOTH Rupiah
857.4 844.6
833.9 829.4
833.3 -0.71 AVHJTL
Rupiah 678.1
653.0 628.7
610.9 602.0 -2.93
PENPJK Miliar Rp
870 731.3 1 002 936.6 1 124 143.4 1 239 963.1 1 355 261.0 11.72 PENPEM
Miliar Rp 1 115 020.4 1 252 434.3 1 376 441.9 1 498 881.6 1 617 220.7 9.75
BLJLAIN Miliar Rp 566 776.6
613 725.7 663 825.2
716 753.7 772 191.0 8.04
GOVEXP Miliar Rp 640 351.6
703 439.5 769 708.6
839 427.9 912 594.4 9.26
CONLIS Miliar Rp
108 027.1 111 027.0
113 266.4 116 005.2
120 294.2 2.73 CONLAIN Miliar Rp
4 030 306.9 4 430 213.2 4 791 747.6 5 139 507.7 5 483 489.4 8.01 CONRT
Miliar Rp 4 138 334.0 4 541 240.2 4 905 014.1 5 255 512.9 5 603 783.6 7.88
INV Miliar Rp
2 462 937.7 2 862 815.7 3 284 082.9 3 726 012.6 4 188 284.6 14.20 EKSPOR
Miliar Rp 1 661 457.7 1 736 554.2 1 808 624.9 1 880 090.0 1 951 840.0 4.11
236
Lampiran 13. Lanjutan
ENDO- GEN
SATUAN 2011
2012 2013
2014 2015
Th IMPOR
Miliar Rp 1 598 286.6 1 750 305.9 1 910 335.3 2 075 561.4 2 246 118.2
8.88 PDB
Miliar Rp 7 304 794.4 8 093 743.8 8 857 095.3 9 625 482.0 10 410 384.3
9.27 RPDB
Miliar Rp 3 097 799.5 3 270 873.9 3 424 670.8 3 569 490.5 3 706 019.5
4.59 GROWTH Persen
8.60 5.59
4.70 4.23
3.82 -1.19
PDBKPT Ribu Rp
30 572.3 33 349.0
35 936.4 38 465.5
40 984.4 7.61
KURS RpUS
8 358.3 7 942.8
7 718.9 7 679.5
7 707.9 -1.98
IHK 235.8
247.4 258.6
269.7 280.9
4.47 INFLASI
Persen 4.85
4.94 4.52
4.27 4.17
-0.17 SKBG
Persen 7.67
8.32 8.55
8.59 8.59
0.23 STK
Ribu orang 120 003.2
122 938.7 125 659.8
128 293.2 130 885.3
2.19 DTK
Ribu orang 113 735.9
117 485.4 121 144.9
124 844.0 128 630.7
3.12 UNEMPL Ribu orang
6 267.3 5 453.2
4 514.9 3 449.2
2 254.6 -22.11 RUPH
Ribu Rp 675.7
660.5 642.1
621.8 600.1
-2.92 MISKOTA Ribu orang
10 430.1 10 141.7
9 795.0 9 406.6
8 973.2 -3.69
MISDESA Ribu orang 17 715.7
15 817.4 13 994.5
12 138.6 10 192.1 -12.88
PMISKIN Ribu orang 28 145.8
25 959.2 23 789.4
21 545.2 19 165.3
-9.15 TMISKIN Persen
11.78 10.70
9.65 8.61
7.55 -1.06
237
Lampiran 14. Hasil Simulas i Model Subsidi Harga Listrik Periode Peramalan Tahun 2011-2015
ENDOGEN Nilai Dasar Sim 1a
Sim 1b Sim 1c
Sim 1d Sim 2a
PRODSDR 153 633.0
153 654.0 153 613.0
153 613.0 154 645.0
154 648.0 QBBM
10 612 419.0 10 613 525.0 10 611 311.0 10 611 346.0 10 535 444.0 10 535 547.0 QBTB
28 940 589.0 28 946 249.0 28 934 919.0 28 935 095.0 29 247 206.0 29 247 720.0 QGAS
357 367.0 357 617.0
357 117.0 357 125.0
365 879.0 365 893.0
PBBM 7 521.0
7 515.9 7 526.0
7 525.9 8 347.0
8 347.2 PBTB
781.3 778.2
784.4 784.3
816.3 816.3
PGAS 45 014.2
44 977.6 45 050.9
45 049.7 45 184.2
45 183.2 CBBM
80 225.6 80 178.7
80 272.7 80 271.0
88 409.1 88 412.6
CBTB 22 746.0
22 655.1 22 836.9
22 833.8 24 056.8
24 058.5 CGAS
16 156.6 16 154.3
16 158.9 16 158.8
16 616.1 16 616.4
TLBELI 43 589.0
41 854.8 45 324.4
44 972.2 46 946.4
46 632.4 PRODTL
197 222.0 195 508.0
198 937.0 198 585.0
201 592.0 201 280.0
BOP 203 865.0
202 438.0 205 293.0
205 030.0 216 560.0
216 336.0 BPP
1 129.4 1 113.5
1 145.5 1 142.4
1 207.8 1 206.2
CLISRT 71 656.7
71 992.5 71 321.1
71 426.7 71 314.0
71 342.3 CLISIND
62 088.6 62 989.2
61 185.3 61 218.5
61 300.9 61 185.2
CLISOTH 46 096.2
46 224.8 45 968.9
46 091.7 45 824.7
45 961.0 TLJUAL
179 841.0 181 207.0
178 475.0 178 737.0
178 440.0 178 489.0
SUSUT 10 558.8
7 480.0 13 640.0
13 026.7 16 330.4
15 969.7 SUBPRT
694.1 763.51
624.69 624.69
641.54 695.4
SUBPIND 611.9
673.09 550.71
550.71 551.12
613.1 SUBPOTH
380.0 418
342.00 342.00
296.03 380.9
SUBRT 50 230.0
55 520.7 44 988.2
45 057.8 46 202.8
50 094.4 SUBIND
38 435.5 42 930.1
34 057.5 34 077.6
34 159.5 37 907.2
SUBOTH 17 784.5
19 616.5 15 962.7
16 006.6 13 776.8
17 777.2 SUBLSTR
106 450.0 118 067.0
95 008.4 95 142.0
94 139.1 105 779.0
HJTLRT 525.6
439.1 612.5
609.2 578.16
607.3 HJTLIND
607.8 529.5
686.5 683.1
668.58 689.6
HJTLOTH 839.7
784.6 895.1
891.8 923.67
921.8 AVHJTL
634.5 558.7
710.7 707.4
698.0 716.5
PENPJK 1 118 607.0 1 118 629.0 1 118 588.0 1 121 603.0 1 117 162.0 1 121 102.0
PENPEM 1 372 000.0 1 372 022.0 1 371 980.0 1 374 995.0 1 370 554.0 1 374 495.0
BLJLAIN 666 654.0
665 262.0 668 050.0 678 095.78
669 907.0 670 183.0
GOVEXP 773 104.0
783 330.0 763 058.0
773 238.0 764 046.0
775 962.0 CONLIS
113 724.0 100 566.0
126 708.0 126 290.0
124 133.0 127 864.0
CONLAIN 4 775 053.0 4 785 468.0 4 764 863.0 4 781 838.0 4 747 807.0 4 766 659.0
CONRT 4 888 777.0 4 886 034.0 4 891 571.0 4 908 128.0 4 871 940.0 4 894 523.0
INV 3 304 827.0 3 310 922.0 3 298 801.0 3 304 590.0 3 289 543.0 3 295 456.0
EKSPOR 1 807 713.0 1 802 701.0 1 812 737.0 1 812 573.0 1 819 974.0 1 819 753.0
238
Lampiran 14. Lanjutan
ENDOGEN Nilai Dasar Sim 1a
Sim 1b Sim 1c
Sim 1d Sim 2a
IMPOR 1 916 121.0 1 905 762.0 1 926 325.0 1 925 869.0 1 936 834.0 1 940 072.0
PDB 8 858 300.0 8 877 224.0 8 839 841.0 8 872 660.0 8 808 669.0 8 845 622.0
RPDB 3 413 771.0 3 464 253.0 3 364 712.0 3 378 686.0 3 301 535.0 3 310 162.0
GROWTH 5.39
5.80 4.98
5.09 4.57
4.56 PDBKPT
35 861.5 35 938.8
35 786.1 35 918.6
35 658.9 35 807.7
KURS 7 881.5
7 702.0 8 061.4
8 054.9 8 302.9
8 312.9 IHK
258.5 255.3
261.7 261.6
265.8 266.2
INFLASI 4.55
4.14 4.95
4.93 5.34
5.48 SKBG
8.35 8.15
8.54 8.54
8.76 8.81
STK 125 556.0 125 547.0
125 565.0 125 574.0 125 576.0 125 582.0
DTK 121 168.0 121 253.0
121 085.0 121 233.0 120 946.0 121 111.0
UNEMPL 4 387.9
4 293.9 4 479.9
4 341.5 4 629.9
4 471.2 RUPH
640.0 640.2
639.8 640.2
639.4 639.9
MISKOTA 9 749.3
9 694.4 9 803.2
9 741.5 9 882.6
9 817.0 MISDESA
13 971.7 13 781.2
14 159.2 13 961.0
14 286.3 14 069.2
PMISKIN 23 721.0
23 475.6 23 962.4
23 702.6 24 168.9
23 886.2 TMISKIN
9.66 9.56
9.75 9.65
9.84 9.72
239
Lampiran 14. Lanjutan
ENDOGEN Sim 2b
Sim 2c Sim 2d
Sim 3a Sim 3b
Sim 3c PRODSDR
154 668.0 154 647.0 153 474.0
153 634.0 153 637.0 153 638.0
QBBM 10 536 637.0 10 535 510.0 10 604 210.0 10 612 476.0 10 612 641.0 10 612 687.0
QBTB 29 253 304.0 29 247 532.0 28 899 305.0 28 940 883.0 28 941 725.0 28 941 960.0
QGAS 366 142.0
365 885.0 355 725.0 357 380.0 357 417.0
357 427.0 PBBM
8 342.0 8 347.3
7 544.4 7 520.7
7 520.0 7 519.8
PBTB 813.2
816.4 797.6
781.1 780.7
780.5 PGAS
45 146.3 45 184.3
45 228.8 45 012.3
45 007.0 45 005.5
CBBM 88 365.4
88 413.8 80 410.3
80 223.1 80 216.6
80 214.7 CBTB
23 964.9 24 061.1
23 193.5 22 741.1
22 728.3 22 724.5
CGAS 16 613.6
16 616.5 16 159.7
16 156.5 16 156.2
16 156.1 TLBELI
44 849.7 46 685.4
42 230.4 42 712.8
43 314.2 42 731.9
PRODTL 199 517.0
201 332.0 195 705.0 196 347.0 196 951.0
196 370.0 BOP
214 870.0 216 380.0 203 592.0
203 215.0 203 633.0 203 201.0
BPP 1 188.8
1 206.6 1 121.2
1 125.5 1 126.9
1 124.2 CLISRT
71 692.3 71 335.0
72 109.5 71 667.8
71 693.7 71 701.5
CLISIND 62 088.6
61 162.0 62 205.6
62 135.5 62 253.4
62 287.9 CLISOTH
46 163.2 45 958.6
46 676.2 46 097.7
46 099.6 46 100.4
TLJUAL 179 944.0
178 456.0 180 991.0 179 901.0 180 047.0
180 090.0 SUSUT
12 751.4 16 054.9
7 891.7 9 502.92
10 082.9 9 502.92
SUBPRT 777.10
694.1 700.6
694.0 693.8
693.7 SUBPIND
694.90 611.9
617.9 611.8
611.6 611.6
SUBPOTH 463.00
380.0 384.6
380.0 379.8
379.8 SUBRT
56 270.2 49 999.1
51 068.3 50 231.9
50 236.0 50 237.4
SUBIND 43 649.0
37 822.9 38 911.8
38 461.6 38 527.0
38 546.3 SUBOTH
21 707.7 17 737.0
18 256.9 17 782.1
17 776.0 17 774.2
SUBLSTR 121 627.0
105 559.0 108 237.0 106 476.0 106 539.0
106 558.0 HJTLRT
525.6 609.1
510.3 521.5
512.0 509.2
HJTLIND 607.8
691.3 593.0
603.7 594.1
591.3 HJTLOTH
839.7 923.1
826.3 835.5
825.9 823.1
AVHJTL 634.6
718.1 620.2
630.4 620.8
618.0 PENPJK
1 122 052.0 1 121 086.0 1 131 778.0 1 118 442.0 1 118 061.0 1 117 950.0 PENPEM
1 375 445.0 1 374 479.0 1 385 170.0 1 371 835.0 1 371 453.0 1 371 342.0 BLJLAIN
668 836.0 670 222.0 668 929.0
666 569.0 666 344.0 666 278.0
GOVEXP 790 463.0
775 781.0 777 166.0 773 044.0 772 883.0
772 836.0 CONLIS
113 796.0 128 131.0 111 642.0
112 997.0 111 348.0 110 867.0
CONLAIN 4 783 307.0 4 766 493.0 4 852 756.0 4 774 666.0 4 773 592.0 4 773 299.0
CONRT 4 897 104.0 4 894 624.0 4 964 398.0 4 887 663.0 4 884 941.0 4 884 166.0
INV 3 303 557.0 3 295 302.0 3 325 359.0 3 304 851.0 3 304 900.0 3 304 918.0
EKSPOR 1 814 738.0 1 819 911.0 1 839 054.0 1 807 450.0 1 806 721.0 1 806 513.0
IMPOR 1 929 121.0 1 940 249.0 1 892 035.0 1 915 545.0 1 914 303.0 1 913 926.0
240
Lampiran 14. Lanjutan
ENDOGEN Sim 2b
Sim 2c Sim 2d
Sim 3a Sim 3b
Sim 3c PDB
8 876 740.0 8 845 370.0 9 013 942.0 8 857 463.0 8 855 141.0 8 854 508.0 RPDB
3 364 141.0 3 309 049.0 3 436 132.0 3 415 771.0 3 420 615.0 3 422 061.0 GROWTH
5.03 4.56
5.77 5.40
5.44 5.45
PDBKPT 35 934.1
35 806.6 36 484.9
35 858.2 35 849.0
35 846.5 KURS
8 128.2 8 317.9
8 669.65 7 871.8
7 846.9 7 839.7
IHK 262.8
266.2 261.2
258.3 257.9
257.8 INFLASI
5.05 5.48
4.76 4.53
4.48 4.46
SKBG 8.60
8.82 8.48
8.33 8.31
8.30 STK
125 574.0 125 583.0 125 586.0
125 555.0 125 553.0 125 553.0
DTK 121 251.0
121 110.0 121 865.0 121 164.0
121 154.0 121 151.0 UNEMPL
4 323.6 4 472.6
3 721.6 4 390.9
4 399.4 4 401.6
RUPH 640.3
639.9 642.0
640.0 640.0
640.0 MISKOTA
9 737.4 9 817.8
9 461.5 9 749.9
9 752.1 9 752.6
MISDESA 13 801.2
14 073.0 13 532.1
13 972.7 13 975.9
13 976.8 PMISKIN
23 538.6 23 890.9
22 993.6 23 722.6
23 728.0 23 729.4
TMISKIN 9.58
9.73 9.37
9.66 9.66
9.66 Keterangan:
Sim 1a: Subsidi Harga Listrik naik 10 persen Sim 1b: Subsidi Harga Listrik dikurangi 10 persen
Sim 1c: Subsidi Harga Listrik dikurangi 10 persen dan dialihkan ke Belanja Lain Sim 1d: Harga Jual Tenaga Listrik d inaikka n 10 pe rsen
Sim 2a: Harga Minyak Mentah Indonesia naik 10 persen Sim 2b: Harga Minya k Mentah Indo nesia naik 10 pe rsen dan Harga Jual Tenaga
Listrik per kWh tetap Sim 2c: Harga Minyak Mentah Indonesia naik 10 persen dan Subsidi per kW h
tetap Sim 2d: Rupiah terdepresiasi 10 persen terhadap US
Sim 3a: Susut Tenaga Listrik berkurang 10 persen Sim 3b: Margin Usaha PLN dikurangi 1 persen
Sim 3c: Kombinasi Sim. 3a dan Sim. 3b
Lampiran 15. Data untuk Model Subsidi Harga Listrik, Tahun 1990-2010
TAHUN CLISRT
CLISIND CLISOTH CLISDR
SUSUT PELRT
PELIND PELOTH
HJTLRT HJTLIND HJTLOTH
1990 9 003.56 14 165.67
4 571.72 1 672.50
5 453.11 10 742.5
36.1 685.1
123.34 91.17
161.32 1991
10 325.75 16 026.03 5 129.47
1 788.10 5 468.25
11 617.0 36.1
743.6 125.81 112.51
187.24 1992
11 667.54 17 754.61 5 539.84
1 780.95 5 191.54
12 635.1 36.5
814.9 128.85 122.83
200.39 1993
13 140.74 19 560.98 6 260.30
1 901.22 5 857.01
14 191.4 38.8
927.2 144.71 135.29
219.46 1994
14 632.11 21 621.80 6 806.92
1 990.87 6 374.52
15 915.1 41.7
979.9 146.57 137.75
223.34 1995
17 056.94 24 722.61 7 969.21
2 260.91 7 324.70
18 325.0 45.0
1 101.6 156.83 144.79
232.77 1996
19 550.83 27 948.89 9 432.29
2 588.33 7 707.89
20 696.3 47.8
1 236.2 158.91 146.16
236.05 1997
22 698.27 30 768.81 10 844.44 3 230.30
8 888.59 23 162.5
50.7 1 427.3
161.65 149.70 239.93
1998 24 865.45 27 995.54 12 400.42
3 218.68 9 217.78
24 902.8 43.1
1 487.6 184.40 201.01
286.56 1999
26 874.78 31 337.57 13 119.72 3 224.35
9 978.96 25 825.1
42.5 1 657.0
193.80 208.56 299.27
2000 30 563.42 34 013.22 14 588.17
3 416.13 10 482.87 26 796.7
44.3 1 754.4
174.62 302.52 377.93
2001 33 339.78 35 593.25 15 587.35
3 709.87 13 261.36 27 885.6
46.0 1 986.1
253.65 361.67 445.64
2002 33 993.56 36 831.30 16 263.89
3 767.51 17 228.35 28 903.3
46.8 2 003.8
392.79 442.94 575.02
2003 35 753.05 36 497.25 18 190.65
4 039.82 18 401.64 29 997.3
46.8 2 107.0
522.48 530.32 647.27
2004 38 588.28 40 324.26 21 184.92
5 824.43 13 131.94 31 096.0
46.5 2 224.0
557.76 559.15 668.47
2005 41 184.29 42 448.36 23 398.78
5 302.43 14 237.20 32 174.9
46.5 2 338.0
563.05 569.87 678.14
2006 43 753.17 43 615.45 25 241.21
4 273.73 14 735.89 33 118.3
46.4 2 586.6
571.12 624.23 733.75
2007 47 324.91 45 802.51 28 119.39
5 229.70 15 239.20 34 684.5
46.8 2 602.4
571.76 621.32 738.42
2008 50 184.17 47 968.85 30 865.79
5 380.35 15 095.53 36 025.1
47.5 2 771.5
588.01 622.04 806.80
2009 54 945.41 46 204.21 33 432.57
5 536.04 15 047.59 37 099.8
47.9 2 970.0
589.33 644.34 838.11
2010 59 824.94 50 985.20 36 487.33
5 641.05 15 953.82 39 324.5
48.7 3 062.2
615.92 660.99 888.67
241
Lampiran 15. Lanjutan
TAHUN TLSDR
TLSEWA TLBELI
QBBM QBTB
QGAS PBBM
PBTB PGAS
CBELITL CBBP
1990 34 011.55
- 867.01 4 554 616.0
4 572 306.0 13 301
240.23 68.24
5 574.66 21.3
1 530.7 1991
37 893.61 -
837.42 5 161 272.0 4 959 108.0
15 533 257.26
66.33 6 952.31
22.7 1 828.6
1992 40 878.83
- 1 057.62 5 827 630.0 5 143 300.0
12 788 292.91
65.24 6 392.61
19.7 2 132.0
1993 45 468.58
- 1 250.17 6 341 757.0 4 732 669.0
58 271 322.91
68.66 4 951.88
19.7 2 783.0
1994 50 066.44
- 1 411.94 3 793 540.0 5 530 066.0 160 705
323.46 70.34
5 578.41 46.9
1 193.3 1995
58 210.81 - 1 193.42 2 983 427.0
5 593 402.0 220 032 345.75
72.91 6 288.19
30.7 2 970.0
1996 65 730.25
- 1 656.29 3 347 295.0 7 966 656.0 433 003
352.05 69.41
6 878.80 77.1
3 361.1 1997
74 053.66 745.98
1 819.92 4 606 076.0 9 961 959.0 228 268
343.17 60.02
6 874.79 325.2
4 338.8 1998
74 421.00 543.61
2 938.76 4 135 997.0 10 634 490.0 222 055
399.98 74.88 26 414.80
1 886.0 9 409.0
1999 80 023.75
472.96 4 279.08 4 703 164.0
11 414 098.0 236 612 500.12
140.73 21 065.44 5 082.7
9 691.8 2000
83 503.51 686.63
9 135.14 5 023 631.0 13 135 584.0 228 838
514.96 153.79 21 787.67
9 395.4 10 375.8
2001 87 587.44
767.27 13 299.21 5 399 220.0 14 027 713.0 222 421
803.73 199.60 26 073.78
8 717.1 14 007.3
2002 88 068.64
1 224.60 19 066.61 6 966 806.0 14 054 377.0 192 927 1 313.98
219.75 23 496.92 11 168.8 17 957.3
2003 90 045.75
2 435.17 20 538.76 7 613 481.0 15 260 305.0 184 304 1 691.80
230.82 21 550.40 10 834.0 21 477.9
2004 93 112.71
3 078.46 24 053.14 8 839 239.0 15 412 738.0 176 436 1 791.34
230.75 21 258.05 11 970.8 24 491.1
2005 98 176.84
3 105.25 26 087.70 9 912 558.0 16 900 972.0 143 050 2 726.86
251.55 25 323.76 13 598.2 37 355.5
2006 101 664.28
2 804.34 28 639.75 9 998 515.0 19 084 438.0 157 894 5 128.34
335.81 24 185.59 14 845.4 63 401.1
2007 107 984.12
3 257.27 31 199.40 10 688 975.0 21 466 348.0 171 209 4 881.43
338.76 23 480.99 16 946.7 65 560.0
2008 113 339.90
4 706.94 31 389.66 11 320 489.0 20 999 521.0 181 661 7 906.22
489.23 29 128.16 20 742.9 107 782.8 2009
115 433.82 5 194.53 36 168.92 9 408 905.0
21 604 454.0 266 539 5 186.77 732.32 37 998.48 25 447.8
76 235.1 2010
123 476.84 8 233.21 38 076.16 9 324 933.6
23 958 699.2 283 274 5 815.65 656.71 42 287.16 25 217.8
84 190.7
242
Lampiran 15. Lanjutan
TAHUN CPLHR
CPGW CSUSUT
CLAIN BOP
KURS IHK
PDB GROWTH
POP MISKOTA
1990 233.0 278.6 559.0
112.0 2 734.6 1 901.0 28.40 195.60
7.24 178 232.0
9 400.0 1991 339.5
307.7 629.7 161.9 3 290.1 1 992.0
31.11 227.45 6.95
181 320.4 9 166.7
1992 498.4 427.4 712.4
202.6 3 992.5 2 062.0 32.64 259.88 6.46
184 322.3 9 091.1
1993 561.7 504.4 909.0
265.1 5 043.0 2 110.0 35.83 329.78
6.82 187 231.8
8 700.0 1994 352.1
281.8 519.2 159.6 2 552.9 2 200.0 39.14 382.22
7.54 190 043.0
8 940.0 1995 808.9
758.3 1 566.5 356.4 6 490.7 2 308.0 42.52 454.51
8.22 192 750.0
9 180.0 1996 911.3
886.2 1 887.0 413.7 7 536.4 2 383.0 45.28 532.57
7.82 195 457.1
9 420.0 1997 965.4
1 068.1 2 250.7 501.6 9 449.8 4 650.0
50.47 627.70 4.70
198 163.3 13 510.0
1998 924.8 1 018.9 3 074.1
496.0 16 808.8 8 025.0 89.65 955.75
-13.13 200 867.4
17 600.0 1999 1 497.8
1 335.6 3 224.3 670.4 21 502.7 7 100.0 91.45 1 099.73
0.79 203 568.3
15 640.0 2000 1 610.3
1 802.4 3 229.6 802.4 27 215.8 9 595.0
100.00 1 389.77 4.92
206 265.0 12 300.0
2001 2 630.4 2 066.3 3 404.1 1 094.1 31 919.4 10 400.0 112.55 1 646.32
3.64 209 014.1
8 600.0 2002 3 588.8
2 583.3 15 626.8 1 420.6 52 345.6 8 940.0 123.84 1 821.83
4.50 211 816.8
13 300.0 2003 4 827.6
3 827.7 12 745.0 2 165.0 55 877.2 9 465.0 130.11 2 013.67
4.78 214 674.2
12 200.0 2004 5 202.1
5 619.4 9 547.6 2 879.8 59 710.8 9 290.0
138.43 2 295.83 5.03
217 587.5 11 400.0
2005 6 511.0 5 508.1 9 722.3
3 328.6 76 023.6 9 830.0 162.12 2 774.28 5.69
220 558.0 12 400.0
2006 6 629.1 6 719.7 10 151.0 3 481.9 105 228.2 9 020.0 172.82 3 339.22
5.50 223 041.6
14 490.0 2007 7 269.1
7 064.3 10 716.2 3 949.6 111 506.0 9 419.0 184.21 3 950.89
6.35 225 630.1
13 560.0 2008 7 619.9
8 344.2 11 372.8 4 735.1 160 597.8 10 950.0
204.58 4 951.36 6.01
228 575.0 12 770.0
2009 7 964.5 9 758.3 11 834.7
4 035.5 135 276.0 10 356.0 210.27 5 613.44 4.55
231 370.0 11 910.0
2010 9 900.6 12 954.4 12 558.5 4 286.0 149 108.1 9 085.0
224.90 6 422.90 6.10
234 181.0 11 100.0
243
Lampiran 15. Lanjutan
TAHUN MISDESA CONRT
ICP PDBTB
PDGAS SKBG
CADEV UANGBR
M EKSPOR
IMPOR 1990
17 800.0 106.39
22.31 42.75
1.84 5.07 8 661
84.6 55 852.0
54 827.0 1991
17 600.0 125.08
19.47 42.23
1.85 6.75 9 868
99.1 68 452.0
67 453.0 1992
17 242.2 135.94
18.78 41.22
1.84 5.67 11 611
119.1 83 050.0
76 438.0 1993
17 200.0 192.96
17.25 38.52
2.11 4.21 11 981
145.2 88 231.0
78 383.0 1994
19 663.3 228.12
15.87 36.40
1.87 3.63 13 158
174.5 101 332.0
96 952.6 1995
22 126.7 279.88
17.11 42.71
1.65 4.84 14 674
222.6 119 592.0
125 657.0 1996
24 590.0 332.09
20.16 42.71
2.04 5.00 19 125
288.6 137 533.0
140 812.0 1997
28 245.0 387.17
19.04 39.90
2.14 5.79 21 418
355.6 174 871.0
176 600.0 1998
31 900.0 647.82
12.47 35.82
1.92 11.31 23 762
577.4 506 245.0
413 058.0 1999
32 330.0 813.18
17.52 31.00
1.93 7.45 27 054
646.2 390 560.0
301 654.0 2000
26 400.0 848.77
28.39 29.60 3.48 5.56
29 394 747.0
569 490.0 423 318.0
2001 29 300.0
1 030.89 21.94 32.07
3.76 5.37 28 016
844.1 642 595.0
506 426.0 2002
25 100.0 1 200.98
22.46 29.98 2.99 3.26
32 037 883.9
595 514.0 480 815.0
2003 25 100.0
1 256.43 26.34 28.63
4.53 2.17 36 296
955.7 613 721.0
465 941.0 2004
24 700.0 1 476.50
36.39 43.00 5.03 1.74
36 320 1 033.9
739 639.0 632 376.0
2005 22 700.0
1 755.75 53.66 36.48
7.25 2.63 34 724
1 202.8 945 122.0
830 083.0 2006
24 810.0 2 049.63
64.27 42.35 7.29 4.01
42 724 1 382.5
0 1 036 320.0 855 588.0
2007 23 610.0
2 490.12 72.31 40.99
7.02 4.17 56 920
1 649.7 0 1 161 960.0 1 002 510.0
2008 22 190.0
3 074.76 96.13 54.76
10.06 4.17 51 639
1 895.8 0 1 475 119.1 1 422 902.1
2009 20 620.0
3 296.21 61.58 58.91
5.16 6.50 66 105
2 141.4 5 1 354 409.4 1 197 092.7
2010 19 923.0
3 642.00 79.40 75.71
6.63 6.50 96 207
2 471.2 8 1 580 817.8 1 475 834.1
244
Lampiran 15. Lanjutan
TAHUN INV
STK DTK
RUPH PENNPJK
PENPJK BLJLAIN
PDBI CONLAIN
GOVEXP 1990
76 196.0 77 802.3 75 850.6 480.05
15 420.1 16 084.1
19 357.9 56 926.8
111 553.4 18 953.0
1991 88 671.0 78 455.5 76 423.2
627.08 20 182.1
22 010.9 23 602.5
68 993.7 133 406.4
22 830.0 1992
101 194.0 80 704.0 78 518.4 686.64
17 662.7 24 919.3
27 680.9 78 582.8
142 914.6 26 879.0
1993 97 213.0 81 446.1 79 200.5
669.60 18 771.1
30 091.5 30 635.9
90 061.5 187 036.2
29 757.0 1994
118 707.5 85 775.6 82 038.1 748.03
19 448.0 36 665.1
35 104.3 108 100.9
221 475.7 31 014.0
1995 145 118.4 86 361.3 80 110.1
774.27 21 975.9
44 442.1 37 203.2
129 755.4 271 766.3
35 584.2 1996
163 453.4 90 109.6 85 701.8 797.22
22 653.8 48 686.3
42 181.2 153 771.3
322 675.6 40 299.2
1997 199 301.1 93 864.9 87 049.8
835.79 28 938.2
57 339.9 44 379.5
178 181.8 376 293.7
42 952.0 1998
160 326.9 92 734.9 87 672.4 534.09
30 834.5 70 934.2
51 373.3 253 737.7
634 057.8 54 415.9
1999 125 010.6 94 847.2 88 816.9
542.12 54 014.0 102 394.5
66 799.2 298 708.5
797 512.5 72 631.3
2000 309 163.8 95 651.0 89 837.7
522.41 89 422.0 115 912.5
84 703.8 385 598.0
835 658.1 90 779.7
2001 371 068.6 98 812.4 90 807.4
472.39 115 058.6 185 540.9 109 772.6
454 961.7 1 011 374.0
113 416.0 2002
389 946.5 100 779.3 91 647.2 557.48
90 181.8 214 713.4 118 891.9 507 555.5
1 192 941.5 132 219.0
2003 515 471.0 105 820.0 95 770.0
569.11 82 015.3 254 140.2 157 633.4
564 015.2 1 322 270.4
163 701.0 2004
552 292.1 103 973.4 93 722.0 589.23
72 218.9 271 022.9 189 577.2 651 325.0
1 474 658.0 191 056.0
2005 695 828.6 105 857.7 93 958.4
540.83 146 888.3 347 031.1 212 203.6
778 760.4 1 722 353.8
224 981.0 2006
847 852.2 106 388.9 95 456.9 606.32
226 950.1 409 203.0 253 587.0 929 862.2
2 021 924.9 288 080.0
2007 984 000.7 109 941.4 99 930.2
633.83 215 119.7 490 988.6 294 534.4 1 070 413.9
2 435 029.6 329 760.0
2008 1 376 539.3 111 947.3 102 552.8
625.39 320 604.6 658 700.8 340 518.7 1 379 969.1
2 915 707.2 416 866.7
2009 1 737 117.0 113 833.3 104 870.7
676.23 227 174.4 619 922.2 485 721.1 1 426 615.1
3 200 671.2 537 588.8
2010 2 086 628.8 116 527.5 108 207.8
679.49 247 176.4 743 325.9 523 858.1 1 594 300.0
3 539 023.0 581 921.3
245
Lampiran 15. Lanjutan
TAHUN SUBRT SUBIND
1
SUBOTH
1
SUBPRT
1
SUBPIND
2
SUBPOTH
2
D9799
2
D98 D04
D05 D08
D09 1990
-223.0 104.9
-286.9 -24.8
7.4 -62.7
1991 -220.0
-128.2 -424.4
-21.3 -8.0
-82.7 1992
-171.0 -153.3
-477.5 -14.7
-8.6 -86.2
1993 -200.7
-114.5 -563.6
-15.3 -5.9
-90.0 1994
-1 277.1 -1 696.5
-1 116.7 -87.3
-78.5 -164.1
1995 -449.6
-354.1 -815.3
-26.4 -14.3
-102.3 1996
-518.9 -385.3
-977.9 -26.5
-13.8 -103.7
1997 -334.0
-85.0 -1 008.5
-14.7 -2.8
-93.0 1
1998 1 819.1
1 583.1 -359.7
73.2 56.5
-29.0 1
1 1999
2 892.9 2 910.7
28.5 107.6
92.9 2.2
1 2000
5 170.3 1 403.8
-498.1 169.2
41.3 -34.1
2001 4 134.2
568.9 -1 059.7
124.0 16.0
-68.0 2002
7 079.7 5 823.9
423.5 208.3
158.1 26.0
2003 3 409.2
3 193.8 -535.4
95.4 87.5
-29.4 2004
1 495.8 1 507.1
-1 524.1 38.8
37.4 -71.9
1 2005
6 064.1 5 960.9
752.4 147.2
140.4 32.2
1 2006
15 896.7 13 530.4
5 066.0 363.3
310.2 200.7
2007 16 464.4
13 664.9 5 096.3
347.9 298.3
181.2 2008
32 958.6 29 871.5
13 517.9 656.8
622.7 438.0
1 2009
25 609.2 18 993.3
7 265.1 466.1
411.1 217.3
1 2010
28 557.9 22 039.9
7 465.3 477.4
432.3 204.6
Keterangan:
1
Dihitung dengan rumus yang digunakan PLN dalam menghitung nilai subsidi listrik, yaitu: SUB = - HJTL – BPP1+m Vl istrik
2
Subsidi per kWh = Ju mlah subsidi per golongan pelanggan dibagi dengan jumlah konsumsi tenaga listriknya
246
ABSTRACT
SRI DJOKO PARARTO. The Impact of Electricity Subsidy Policy on Economy and Poverty
in Indonesia YUSMAN SYAUKAT, as Chairman, BONAR M. SINAGA and SRI HARTOYO, as Members of the Advisory
Committee
The objectives of this study were to identify the factors that influence the levels of subsidy for electricity and to analyze the impact of electricity subsidies
on economy and po verty in Indo nesia. This study used a simultaneous equations econometric was model estimated using a two stage least squares 2SLS method
and SYSLIN procedure for the data set period of 1990-2010. The forecast simulation was set for 2011-2015 with NEWTON method and SIMNLIN
procedure. Since economic crises hit Indonesia in the middle 1997, electricity market in Indo nesia has funda mental change s. The crises led to rising of the
operation cost of energy provision, while people’s purchasing power decreased. The government adopt ed the electricity subs idies to help the peop le and to ensure
the survival of the provider of electric power. The amount of electricity subsidies depends on government revenue. Besides that, the amount of electricity subsidies
also depends on the operation cost per kWh of electricity provision, margin of electricity provider, and people’s purchasing power. The amount of the electricity
subsidies and the operation cost of electricity provision will determine the selling price of electricity burdened to consumers. The changes of the selling price of
electricity will affect the economic performance and the poverty because the electricity is one of main energy sources of household and other economic
activities. One of main results of the study is that the transfer of electricity subsidies to other expenditures has a better impact on po verty although it can
suppress the economic growth. The results of forecast simulation also show that the decrease in electricity subsidies, increase of Indonesia Crude Oil Prices ICP,
and the depreciation of rupiah to dollar of United Stated caused rising in the selling price of electricity, decreasing economic growth, and increasing inflation
and poverty rates. In other hand, decreasing of energy losses and reducing of company margin will result in decreasing selling price of electricity subsidies,
increasing economic growth and decreasing inflation and poverty rate.
Keywords: electricity subsidies, production cost, selling price of electricity, economic growth, poverty
RINGKASAN
Listrik sekarang telah menjadi kebutuhan pokok bagi masyarakat karena hampir setiap aktivitas masyarakat sangat tergantung pada ketersediaan tenaga
listrik. Di lain pihak, penyediaan tenaga listrik yang bersifat padat modal dan teknologi menyebabkan harga tenaga listrik menjadi mahal dan belum dapat
menjangka u selur uh wilayah Indo nesia. Oleh karena itu, campur tangan pemerintah sangat diperlukan untuk mendorong proses produksi dan distribusi
yang lebih merata dengan harga ya ng terjangka u.
Salah satu campur tangan pemerintah dalam sektor kelistrikan adalah keterlibatannya dalam penentuan tarif listrik. Kebijakan penetapan tarif listrik ini
sangat erat kaitannya dengan kebijakan pemberian subsidi karena tarif listrik yang ditetapkan biasanya lebih kecil dari biaya pokok penyediaan tenaga listrik. Subsidi
diberikan dengan tujuan agar ketersediaan listrik dapat terpenuhi, kelangsungan penyediaan listrik dapat berjalan stabil, serta membantu pelanggan yang kurang
mampu dan masyarakat yang belum terjangkau pelayanan PT. PLN Persero, selanjut nya disebut PLN, dapat ikut menikmati energi listrik.
Namun demikian ada satu pertanyaan klasik yang sering muncul berkaitan pe mberian subsidi ini, yaitu apaka h subs idi tersebut telah memba nt u masyarakat
miskin harena sampai saat ini subsidi diberikan kepada hampir semua pelanggan PLN. Selain itu, subsidi listrik juga ditengarai lebih banyak dinikmati oleh rumah
tangga kaya. Ini disebabka n kebijakan subsidi listrik saat ini adalah subsidi harga, sehingga semakin besar jumlah konsumsi listriknya semakin besar juga jumlah
subsidi yang dinikmati.
Berpijak dari permasalahan di atas, maka diperlukan adanya suatu penelitian untuk mengetahui faktor- faktor apa saja yang mempengaruhi besarnya
subsidi listrik dan bagaimana dampaknya terhadap tingkat kemiskinan di Indo nesia. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah: 1 mengidentifikasi faktor- faktor yang
mempengaruhi besarnya subsidi listrik di Indonesia; 2 mengestimasi besarnya subsidi listrik yang harus dikeluarkan pemerintah; dan 3 menganalisis dampak
pemberian subsidi listrik terhadap tingkat kemiskinan.
Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder periode tahun 1990-2010 yang bersumber dari berbagai instansi. Analisis menggunakan model persamaan
simultan yang diestimasi dengan metod e 2SLS Two-Stage Least Squares dan prosedur SYSLIN. Model yang disusun terdiri da ri 29 persamaan struktural dan
27 persamaan identitas yang dikelompokkan dalam 8 blok, yaitu 1 blok produksi listrik, 2 blok konsumsi listrik, 3 blok subsidi listrik, 4 blok harga jual tenaga
listrik, 5 blok pe nerimaan dan pengeluaran pemerintah, 6 blok PDB, nilai tukar, dan inflasi, 7 blok tenaga kerja, dan 8 blok kemiskinan. Hasil estimasi
persamaan-persamaan struktural pada taraf signifikansi 40 persen secara ekonomi logis serta mempunyai arti dan dapat dibuktikan secara statistik. Sebelum
melakukan simulasi, maka dilakukan uji validasi dengan metode NEWTON dan prosedur SIMNLIN. Uji validasi menggunakan statistik RMSPE dan U-The il.
Hasil validasi menunjukkan model yang dibangun mempunyai daya ramal yang
cukup valid untuk melakukan simulasi ramalan. Simulasi ramalan dilakukan untuk periode tahun 2011-2015 dengan metode NEWTON dan prosedur
SIMNLIN. Seluruh perhitungan menggunakan program piranti lunak Statistical Analysis SystemEstimation Time Series SASETS versi 9.1.
Berdasarkan hasil pendugaan parameter, dapat disimpulkan bahwa produksi tenaga listrik yang dibangkitkan sendiri dipengaruhi secara positif oleh
konsumsi bahan bakar yang digunakan. Tenaga listrik yang dibeli dipengaruhi secara negatif oleh jumlah tenaga listrik yang diproduksi sendiri dan pos itif oleh
besarnya permintaan tenaga listrik dan jumlah tenaga listrik yang hilang. Total biaya operasional dipengaruhi secara positif oleh jumlah tenaga listrik yang dibeli,
biaya untuk konsumsi bahan bakar BBM, batu bara, dan gas alam, dan biaya rutin lainnya. Pengeluaran untuk konsumsi bahan bakar dipengaruhi oleh harga
dan jumlahnya. Jumlah konsumsi bahan bakar dipengaruhi secara negatif oleh harganya, jumlah tenaga listrik yang diproduksi sendiri, dan secara positif oleh
harga dunia bahan bakar. Konsumsi tenaga listrik dipengaruhi secara negatif oleh harga jual tenaga listrik da n secara positif oleh pendapatan pelanggan. Subsidi
harga listrik dipengaruhi secara positif oleh besarnya penerimaan pemerintah. Harga jual tenaga listrik dihitung berdasarkan selisih antara biaya pokok
penyediaan tenaga listrik per kWh BPP, termasuk margin usaha de ngan nilai subsidi per kWh yang diberikan. Jumlah penduduk miskin di daerah perkotaan
dan pedesaan dipengaruhi secara positif oleh tingkat inflasi dan jumlah pengangguran. Selain itu, jumlah penduduk miskin di perkotaan dipengaruhi
secara negatif oleh tingkat upa h riil, seda ngka n di pede saan oleh jumlah pengeluaran pemerintah.
Simulasi peramalan pe ngurangan subsidi listrik, ke naika n harga minya k mentah Indo nesia ICP, dan melemahnya nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar
Amerika Serikat menyebabkan kenaikan harga jual tenaga listrik, memicu inflasi, menekan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan meningkatkan jumlah penduduk miskin.
Sedangkan penurunan tenaga listrik yang hilang da n pe ngurangan margin usaha perusahaan penyedia tenaga listrik dapat menurunkan biaya operasional
perusahaan penyedia tenaga listrik da n harga jual tenaga listrik, meneka n inflasi, mendorong laju pertumbuhan ekonomi, da n dapat menurunkan jumlah pe nduduk
miskin.
I. PENDAHULUAN
