Coffee Semi annual Jakarta Indonesia 11 14 2017
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
POLICY
Required Report - public distribution
Date: 11/14/2017
GAIN Report Number: ID1725
Indonesia
Coffee Semi-annual
Indonesia Coffee Semi-annual 2017
Approved By:
Chris Rittgers
Prepared By:
Arif Rahmanulloh
Report Highlights:
The 2017/18 production forecast is unchanged at 10.9 million bags, which is a slight increase from the
output in 2016/17. Reportedly, lowland Robusta production has not been as high as expected. As a
result of strong overseas demand, green bean exports are forecast higher. Coffee and coffee products
are among Indonesia’s leading agricultural exports to the U.S., averaging about $330 million annually.
Commodities:
Coffee, Green
Production
Indonesia’s coffee farming is low input with minimal management on holdings averaging less than 1
hectare per farmer. The lack of good agronomic practices leads to low productivity and causes large
production swings as weather patterns vary. Reportedly, excessive rainfall in highland production areas
negatively impacted production, while lowland areas had more favorable growing conditions. However,
higher production in the lowland areas was not as high as expected, and could not compensate for the
drop in the upland areas. Therefore, the 2017/18 production forecast is maintained at 10.9 million bags,
Green Bean equivalent (GBE), a 300,000 bag increase compared to output in 2016/17.
Coffee production is 80-90 percent Robusta and mostly grown in Southern Sumatera. Meanwhile, most
Arabica is grown in the mountainous areas of Northern Sumatera, with some also grown in Java and
Sulawesi. Indonesia’s Arabica is marketed with denominations of origin to denote unique
characteristics.
Table 1. Indonesia Coffee Production Characteristics
Region
Northern Sumatera
Southern Sumatera
Java and others
Source: industry contacts
Topography
Highland areas (>90 pct)
Low (40 pct) and Highland (60 pct)
Low and Highland
Key Production
Arabica
Robusta
Arabica, Robusta
Consumption
Coffee consumption is forecast to grow slightly to 3.29 million bags GBE in 2017/18, about 2 percent
above 2016/17. Expansion in the number of coffee outlets, a leading trend in the local food service
scene, is driving demand growth. In line with a growing middle class and rising incomes, more coffee
outlets are opening in malls, airports, train stations, and office buildings. In addition, coffee chains are
also expanding into smaller cities. The industry is making extensive use of social media and advertising
to market to a growing consumer base. Demand for instant mixed coffee is also growing as these
beverages are favored for their low prices and convenience.
Trade
Due to the strong pace of exports in 2017, the forecast for green bean exports is raised to 7.45 million
GBE in 2017/18. Shipments during January-August 2017 are 108,000 tons above the corresponding
period in 2016 (See Figure 1). In 2017, the major destinations have been the United States, Germany,
Malaysia, Russia, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, Algeria, Egypt and China.
Imports are forecast at 730,000 GBE in MY 2017/18. Robusta bean imports from Vietnam are expected
to be lower due to increased local production, while Arabica beans from Brazil are expected to increase
slightly due to increasing domestics demand for specialty coffee.
Imports are revised up to 342,000 bags for 2016/17 based on final trade data.
Figure 1. Indonesia Green Bean Exports 2016-2017 (MT)
Source: GTIS, BPS
Production, Supply and Demand Statistics
Coffee, Green
Market Begin Year
Indonesia
Area Planted
Area Harvested
Bearing Trees
Non-Bearing Trees
Total Tree Population
Beginning Stocks
Arabica Production
Robusta Production
Other Production
Total Production
Bean Imports
Roast & Ground
Imports
Soluble Imports
Total Imports
Total Supply
Bean Exports
Rst-Grnd Exp.
Soluble Exports
Total Exports
Rst,Grnd Dom.
Consum.
Soluble Dom. Cons.
Domestic
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Total Distribution
2015/2016
Apr-15
USDA
Official
1,240
1,200
1,160
15
1,175
53
1,500
10,600
0
12,100
311
New
Post
1,240
1,200
1,160
15
1,175
53
1,500
10,600
0
12,100
311
2016/2017
Apr-16
USDA
New
Official
Post
1,240
1,240
1,200
1,200
1,160
1,160
15
15
1,175
1,175
46
46
1,300
1,300
9,300
9,300
0
0
10,600
10,600
320
342
2017/2018
Apr-17
USDA
New
Official
Post
1,250
1,250
1,210
1,210
1,160
1,160
15
15
1,175
1,175
44
12
1,300
1,300
9,600
9,600
0
0
10,900
10,900
300
340
9
9
8
10
5
40
644
964
13117
7,938
48
1,910
9,896
644
964
13,117
7,938
48
1,910
9,896
430
758
11,404
7,200
40
800
8,040
391
743
11,389
7,309
48
800
8,157
400
705
11,649
7,300
50
850
8,200
350
730
11,642
7,450
50
810
8,310
2375
2,375
2,480
2,410
2,500
2,470
800
800
840
810
900
820
3,175
3,175
3,320
3,220
3,400
3,290
46
46
13,117
13,117
(1000 HA) ,(MILLION TREES) ,(1000 60 KG BAGS)
44
11,404
12
11,389
-
49
11,649
42
11,642
-
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
POLICY
Required Report - public distribution
Date: 11/14/2017
GAIN Report Number: ID1725
Indonesia
Coffee Semi-annual
Indonesia Coffee Semi-annual 2017
Approved By:
Chris Rittgers
Prepared By:
Arif Rahmanulloh
Report Highlights:
The 2017/18 production forecast is unchanged at 10.9 million bags, which is a slight increase from the
output in 2016/17. Reportedly, lowland Robusta production has not been as high as expected. As a
result of strong overseas demand, green bean exports are forecast higher. Coffee and coffee products
are among Indonesia’s leading agricultural exports to the U.S., averaging about $330 million annually.
Commodities:
Coffee, Green
Production
Indonesia’s coffee farming is low input with minimal management on holdings averaging less than 1
hectare per farmer. The lack of good agronomic practices leads to low productivity and causes large
production swings as weather patterns vary. Reportedly, excessive rainfall in highland production areas
negatively impacted production, while lowland areas had more favorable growing conditions. However,
higher production in the lowland areas was not as high as expected, and could not compensate for the
drop in the upland areas. Therefore, the 2017/18 production forecast is maintained at 10.9 million bags,
Green Bean equivalent (GBE), a 300,000 bag increase compared to output in 2016/17.
Coffee production is 80-90 percent Robusta and mostly grown in Southern Sumatera. Meanwhile, most
Arabica is grown in the mountainous areas of Northern Sumatera, with some also grown in Java and
Sulawesi. Indonesia’s Arabica is marketed with denominations of origin to denote unique
characteristics.
Table 1. Indonesia Coffee Production Characteristics
Region
Northern Sumatera
Southern Sumatera
Java and others
Source: industry contacts
Topography
Highland areas (>90 pct)
Low (40 pct) and Highland (60 pct)
Low and Highland
Key Production
Arabica
Robusta
Arabica, Robusta
Consumption
Coffee consumption is forecast to grow slightly to 3.29 million bags GBE in 2017/18, about 2 percent
above 2016/17. Expansion in the number of coffee outlets, a leading trend in the local food service
scene, is driving demand growth. In line with a growing middle class and rising incomes, more coffee
outlets are opening in malls, airports, train stations, and office buildings. In addition, coffee chains are
also expanding into smaller cities. The industry is making extensive use of social media and advertising
to market to a growing consumer base. Demand for instant mixed coffee is also growing as these
beverages are favored for their low prices and convenience.
Trade
Due to the strong pace of exports in 2017, the forecast for green bean exports is raised to 7.45 million
GBE in 2017/18. Shipments during January-August 2017 are 108,000 tons above the corresponding
period in 2016 (See Figure 1). In 2017, the major destinations have been the United States, Germany,
Malaysia, Russia, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, Algeria, Egypt and China.
Imports are forecast at 730,000 GBE in MY 2017/18. Robusta bean imports from Vietnam are expected
to be lower due to increased local production, while Arabica beans from Brazil are expected to increase
slightly due to increasing domestics demand for specialty coffee.
Imports are revised up to 342,000 bags for 2016/17 based on final trade data.
Figure 1. Indonesia Green Bean Exports 2016-2017 (MT)
Source: GTIS, BPS
Production, Supply and Demand Statistics
Coffee, Green
Market Begin Year
Indonesia
Area Planted
Area Harvested
Bearing Trees
Non-Bearing Trees
Total Tree Population
Beginning Stocks
Arabica Production
Robusta Production
Other Production
Total Production
Bean Imports
Roast & Ground
Imports
Soluble Imports
Total Imports
Total Supply
Bean Exports
Rst-Grnd Exp.
Soluble Exports
Total Exports
Rst,Grnd Dom.
Consum.
Soluble Dom. Cons.
Domestic
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Total Distribution
2015/2016
Apr-15
USDA
Official
1,240
1,200
1,160
15
1,175
53
1,500
10,600
0
12,100
311
New
Post
1,240
1,200
1,160
15
1,175
53
1,500
10,600
0
12,100
311
2016/2017
Apr-16
USDA
New
Official
Post
1,240
1,240
1,200
1,200
1,160
1,160
15
15
1,175
1,175
46
46
1,300
1,300
9,300
9,300
0
0
10,600
10,600
320
342
2017/2018
Apr-17
USDA
New
Official
Post
1,250
1,250
1,210
1,210
1,160
1,160
15
15
1,175
1,175
44
12
1,300
1,300
9,600
9,600
0
0
10,900
10,900
300
340
9
9
8
10
5
40
644
964
13117
7,938
48
1,910
9,896
644
964
13,117
7,938
48
1,910
9,896
430
758
11,404
7,200
40
800
8,040
391
743
11,389
7,309
48
800
8,157
400
705
11,649
7,300
50
850
8,200
350
730
11,642
7,450
50
810
8,310
2375
2,375
2,480
2,410
2,500
2,470
800
800
840
810
900
820
3,175
3,175
3,320
3,220
3,400
3,290
46
46
13,117
13,117
(1000 HA) ,(MILLION TREES) ,(1000 60 KG BAGS)
44
11,404
12
11,389
-
49
11,649
42
11,642
-