Directory UMM :Data Elmu:jurnal:I:International Journal of Educational Management:Vol12.Issue3.1998:

Inte rnatio nal Jo urnal o f Educ atio nal Manage me nt 1 2 / 3 [1998] 1 3 3 –1 4 0 MCB Unive rs ity Pre s s [ISSN 0951-354X]

Futures and strategic perspectives in school

planning

Brent Davies

Inte rnatio nal Educ atio nal Le ade rs hip Ce ntre , Unive rs ity o f Linc o lns hire and Humbe rs ide , Linc o ln, UK

Linda Ellison

Ce ntre fo r Le ade rs hip in Educ atio n and Training, Le e ds Me tro po litan Unive rs ity, Le e ds , UK

School planning has devel-oped signifi cantly over the last ten years with the univer-sal acceptance of school development planning for-mats and approaches. How-ever, the move to school-based management and greater autonomy has increased the need for schools to take on a wider planning role and responsibil-ity. This paper considers three models of planning. It briefl y outlines the original model of school development planning that the authors articulated in 1992 but then examines the need for schools to extend their plan-ning from short-term school development planning to longer-term strategic plan-ning and, most signifi cantly, to incorporate “ futures think-ing” . It then develops a new model which the authors believe should be more responsive to the needs of school planning in the future.

© Brent Davies and Linda Ellison

Introduction

Ou r fi r s t b ook on sch ool d evelop m en t p la n -n i-n g (Dav ies a -n d E llis o-n , 1992) w a s b a sed o-n d evelop m en t wor k t h a t w e h a d u n d er t a k en w it h sever a l h u n d r ed h ea d t ea ch er s. T h ese h ea d t ea ch er s w er e r es p on d in g t o t h e ch a l-len ge of d esign in g a p p r op r ia t e p la n n in g st r u ct u r es a n d p r ocess es t o m eet t h e d em a n d s of s elf-m a n a gem en t follow in g t h e 1988 E d u ca t ion Refor m Act . T h is ea r ly wor k a r gu ed for a ch a n ge in p r a ct ice a n d p u t for -w a r d a n e-w fr a m e-wor k for s ch ool p la n n in g. T h e ea r ly 1990s s aw a n u m b er of p u blica t ion s in t h e fi eld w it h Pla n n in g for S ch ool Dev elop m en t (DE S, 1989) b ein g s u p p or t ed by Dev elop -m en t Pla n n in g – A Pra ctica l Gu id e (DE S, 1991) a n d t h e wor k of a n u m b er of w r it er s s u ch a s Sk elt on et a l. (1991), H a r gr eaves a n d H op k in s (1991), Wes t a n d Ain s cow (1991) a n d P u ffit et a l. (1992) p ick in g u p t h e t h em e. Som e m or e r ecen t wor k s s u ch a s Giles (1997) h ave m er ely r e p ea t ed t h e ea r ly “h ow t o” a dv ice, bu t r et r o-s p ect ive r eo-s ea r ch by Ma cGilch r io-s t et a l. (1995) a n d Br oa d h ea d et a l. (1996) h a s p r ov id ed s om e in s igh t s in t o t h is ea r ly exp er ien ce.

Self-m a n a gin g sch ools a r e t a k in g on gr ea t er r esp on s ib ilit y for p la n n in g in a w id er con t ext . To d o t h is t h ey h ave en ga ged in va r i-ou s a p p r oa ch es t o p la n n in g. T h is a r t icle s u m m a r is es ou r t h in k in g on cu r r en t a n d p ot en t ia l a p p r oa ch es by exa m in in g t h r ee m od els of p la n n in g. It b r iefl y ou t lin es t h e or igin a l m od el t h a t w a s a r t icu la t ed in 1992 bu t t h en exa m in es t h e n eed for s ch ools t o ext en d t h eir p la n n in g fr om s h or t -t er m s ch ool d evelop m en t p la n n in g t o lon ger -t er m s t r a t egic p la n n in g a n d , m os t sign ifi ca n t ly, t o in cor -p or a t e “fu t u r es t h in k in g”. It t h en d evelo-p s a n ew m od el w h ich t h e a u t h or s b elieve sh ou ld b e m or e r es p on s ive t o t h e n eed s of s ch ool p la n n in g in t h e fu t u r e.

1992: the original model

Ou r or igin a l wor k con s id er ed t h a t p la n n in g sh ou ld t a k e a m a in ly op er a t ion a l p er sp ect ive w it h a on e-yea r p la n b ein g ext en d ed u p t o t wo or t h r ee yea r s. We con s id er ed t h a t :

T h e sch ool d evelop m en t p la n sh ou ld p r ov id e t h e m ech a n ism for d efi n in g a sch ool’s a im s

a n d t r a n sla t in g t h es e in t o effect ive ed u ca -t ion . Ac-t iv i-t ies ca n b e s u b -d iv id ed in -t o cor e elem en t s w h ich r e p r es en t t h e m a in p u r p os e of t h e sch ool a n d su p p or t elem en t s w h ich fa cilit a t e t h e effect ive op er a t ion of t h e cor e elem en t s (Dav ies a n d E llis on , 1992, p. 9). Follow in g ext en sive wor k w it h sch ools a n d loca l ed u ca t ion a u t h or it ies (LE As), w e cr e-a t ed e-a m od el t o sh ow ou r v iew of t h e w e-ay in w h ich t h e elem en t s bu ilt u p in t o t h e sch ool d evelop m en t p la n (F igu r e 1).

T h e m od el w h ich w e p r op os ed b r ou gh t a ll t h e se p a r a t e a ct iv it ies t oget h er in t o on e coh er en t d ocu m en t in or d er t o “p r ov id e a st r a t e gic p ict u r e of w h er e t h e sch ool is, w h er e it is goin g a n d h ow it in t en d s t o get t h er e” (Dav ies a n d E llison , 1992, p. 9). At t h e t im e, m a n y sch ools con s id er ed t h a t on ly cer t a in m a jor a ct iv it ies s u ch a s cu r r icu lu m a n d st a ffin g n eed ed p la n n in g a n d com p a r t m en -t a lis ed p la n n in g h a d led -t o over la p s a n d om is-sion s. Wh ile w e a lso p r op osed se p a r a t e, m or e d et a iled p la n s for ea ch of t h e a r ea s sh ow n in F igu r e 1, t h eir in t e gr a t ion en su r ed t h a t t h e se p a r a t e p la n s wou ld b e com p lem en t a r y.

T h is ea r lier wor k by sch ools on d evelop m en t p la n n in g h a s b een su cces sfu l in est a b -lis h in g b en ch m a r k s of good p la n n in g p r a ct ice for t h e en v ir on m en t in w h ich t h ey fou n d t h em s elves in t h e ea r ly 1990s bu t t h e r a t e of econ om ic, t ech n ologica l a n d ed u ca t ion a l ch a n ge h a s ga t h er ed p a ce d u r in g t h e 1990s. T h e n eed t o b e fl exible a n d r esp on sive t o t h is ch a n ge is h igh ligh t ed by Dr u ck er (1993):

Wh a t w ill b e t a u gh t a n d lea r n ed ; h ow it w ill b e t a u gh t a n d lea r n ed ; w h o w ill m a k e u s e of sch oolin g; a n d t h e p os it ion of t h e s ch ool in societ y – a ll of t h is w ill ch a n ge gr ea t ly d u r -in g t h e en s u -in g d eca d es. In d eed , n o ot h er in st it u t ion fa ces ch a llen ges a s r a d ica l a s t h ose t h a t w ill t r a n s for m t h e s ch ool (p. 209). Ch ild r en w h o h ave r ecen t ly s t a r t ed sch ool a n d w h o go on t o h igh er ed u ca t ion w ill com -p let e t h eir ed u ca t ion b et w een t h e yea r s 2013 a n d 2015. Wh a t is m or e, t h ey cou ld b e wor k -in g w it h t ech n ologies t h a t h ave n ot yet b een in ven t ed in a n or ga n is a t ion t h a t h a s yet t o b e cr ea t ed . Wh a t sor t of ed u ca t ion a l exp er i-en ce w ill t h ey h ave over t h e n ext t i-en yea r s a n d b eyon d ? H ow w ill sch ools p la n t o op er a t e in t h is en v ir on m en t ? T h e con t in u ed a n d in cr ea sin gly r a p id ch a n ges in b ot h t h e

Bre nt Davie s and Linda Ellis o n Future s and strate gic pe rspe c tive s in sc ho o l planning

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ed u ca t ion a l a n d t h e glob a l en v ir on m en t r eq u ir e t h a t sch ools s h ou ld t h in k a h ea d a b ou t t h e t y p es of in st it u t ion s w h ich t h ey w is h t o b e in t en yea r s’ t im e.

It is im p or t a n t t o t a k e a lon ger -t er m h olis-t ic p er s p ecolis-t ive w h ich con sid er s w h a olis-t olis-t h e n a t u r e of lea r n in g a n d t h e lea r n in g t ech n ol-ogy w ill b e lik e in t h e t w en t y -fi r s t cen t u r y a n d t o avoid a n in cr em en t a l a p p r oa ch w h er eby a s ch ool wou ld gr a d u a lly a lt er it s cu r r en t p r ov ision . It is a lso w is e t o avoid som e of t h e m ist a k es of in d u st r y a n d com -m er ce w h er e a r igid a p p r oa ch t o s t r a t e gic p la n n in g (a s d iscu ss ed by Min t zb er g, 1994) h a s p r od u ced in fl exib ilit y a n d a n in a b ilit y t o gr a s p op p or t u n it ies w h ich wou ld en s u r e t h e lon g-t er m effect iven es s of t h e or ga n isa t ion . Ou r con clu sion w a s t h a t t h e or igin a l p la n -n n g m od el w e h a d a r t icu la t ed w a s a p p r op r ia t e for t h e on e or t woyeia r op er ia t ion ia l p lia n -n i-n g cycle bu t it -n eed ed t o b e s et a lo-n gs id e a r econ ce p t u a lised , w id er -r ea ch in g con t ext .

1995: the three-stage model

It a p p ea r ed t h a t a m or e a p p r op r ia t e m od el t o in cr em en t a l p la n n in g wou ld b e t o u s e fu t u r es t h in k in g in or d er t o d evelop a v ision a b ou t a d es ir ed fu t u r e s t a t e, cr ea t in g s cen a r -ios w h ich m igh t r e p r es en t t h e s ch ool’s fu t u r e. Sen ior m a n a ger s in s ch ools cou ld t h en u s e t h e p r oces s of s t r a t e gic p la n n in g t o com p le-m en t a n d ext en d t h e exist in g d evelop le-m en t

p la n n in g p r ocess. T h e lin k b et w een t h ese t h r ee a ct iv it ies ca n b e seen in F igu r e 2. Ou r p r oject a im ed t o in vest iga t e t h e ext en t t o w h ich sch ools w er e m ov in g t o t h is for m of t h in k in g. T h e fi r s t p h a s e u sed a su r vey m et h od ology w it h a sa m p le con sis t in g of 40 sch ools fr om a cr oss E n gla n d w h ich ca t er for secon d a r y a ge p u p ils. T h ese w er e sch ools t h a t h a d p r ev iou sly wor k ed w it h u s on est a b -lis h in g d evelop m en t p la n n in g p r ocesses a n d h a d a n in it ia l ca p a cit y in t h is a r ea . Follow in g a n a ly sis of t h e r esp on ses, t h e secon d p h a se w a s exp ect ed t o id en t ify t en of t h e s ch ools for follow -u p r es ea r ch t o bu ild u p a ca se st u dy of ea ch on e. T h is wou ld fa cilit a t e a d et a iled in vest iga t ion of t h eir a p p r oa ch in r ela t ion t o ou r m od el. T h e follow in g sect ion s w ill ou t lin e t h e k ey ch a r a ct er ist ics of ea ch of t h e st a ges of t h e m od el a n d r e p or t on t h e fi n d in gs of t h e su r vey w h ich r ela t ed t o ea ch st a ge.

Futures thinking

Wh en a t t em p t in g t o bu ild a v ision of t h e sch ool a n d of t h e p r ocess of lea r n in g in t h e n ext cen t u r y, it is u sefu l t o con s id er som e of t h e t r en d s a n d t h in k in g t h a t w ill im p a ct on sch ools over t h e n ext fi ve t o 15 yea r s. An a r t icu la t ion of s om e of t h ese t r en d s a n d t h in k in g ca n b e s een in t h e wor k of Bea r e a n d Sla u gh t er (1993), H a n dy (1994), H a r gr eaves

CURRICULUM & CURRICULUM DEVELOPMENT Co re Ele me nts :

HUMAN RESOURCES

PUPIL WELFARE & PASTORAL CARE

SCHOOL MANAGEMENT DEVELOPMENT

PLAN

SCHOOL VISION, MISSION AND AIMS

CURRICULUM & CURRICULUM DEVELOPMENT

PHYSICAL RESOURCES Suppo rt Ele me nts :

PUPIL ROLL & MARKETING MANAGEMENT STRUCTURES & APPROACHES FINANCIAL RESOURCES

MONITORING AND EVALUATION MECHANISMS

EFFECTIVE EDUCATION Source: Davie s and Ellis o n (1 9 9 2 , p.9 )

Figure 1

The o riginal Sc ho o l De ve lo pme nt Planning mo de l _{1 . Future s}

Thinking 5 -1 5 years

2 . Strate gic

Planning 3 -5 years

3 . De ve lo pme nt

Planning 1 -3 years Figure 2

Bre nt Davie s and Linda Ellis o n Future s and strate gic pe rspe c tive s in sc ho o l planning

Inte rnatio nal Jo urnal o f Educ atio nal Manage me nt 1 2 / 3 [1 9 9 8 ] 1 3 3 –1 4 0

(1994), Ger s t n er et a l. (1994) a n d Ca ldw ell (1997). A s u m m a r y is p r ov id ed by Dav ies (1997) w h o con s id er s t h e t r en d s t h a t a r e a lr ea dy ev id en t bu t w h ich w ill b ecom e of in cr ea sin g im por ta n ce (Davies, 1997, pp. 20-21): • T h e d evelop m en t of st a t e a n d n a t ion a l

cu r r icu lu m a n d t es t in g fr a m ewor k s is p r ov id in g m ea s u r es of ou t p u t a n d va lu e-a d d ed , t h u s in cr ee-a sin g in for m e-a t ion for p a r en t a l ch oice.

• Rela t in g va lu e-a d d ed ed u ca t ion a l ga in s t o r esou r ce levels a llow s sch ools t o b e com -p a r ed in t er m s of “va lu e for m on ey ”. H ow ca n t h ey a ch ieve in cr ea sed p er for m a n ce w it h t h e s a m e r esou r ce level?

• In cr ea s ed d iffer en t ia t ion b et w een s ch ools en cou r a ges m or e s p ecia lis ed p r ov ision . • Sign ifi ca n t ly en h a n ced levels of p a r en t a l

ch oice.

• Con s id er a ble ch a n ges in s t a ffin g p a t t er n s a n d a r r a n gem en t s, m or e p a r a p r ofes sion -a ls, cor e -a n d p er ip h er y s t -a ff, fi xed -t er m p er for m a n ce-led con t r a ct s, s ch ool-s it e p ay b a r ga in in g.

• Ra d ica l ch a n ges in t h e n a t u r e of t ea ch in g a n d lea r n in g a s t h e im p a ct of t h e n ew t ea ch in g a n d lea r n in g t ech n ologies ga t h -er s p a ce.

• Gr ea t er va r iet ies of fi n a n ce w it h blu r r in g b et w een s t a t eon ly a n d p r iva t eon ly fu n d -in g of sch ools.

• Con t r a ct in g ou t of ed u ca t ion a l a s w ell a s s er v ice elem en t s of sch oolin g.

• A r e-exa m in a t ion of t h e b ou n d a r ies b et w een d iffer en t st a ges of ed u ca t ion a n d b et w een ed u ca t ion a n d t h e com m u n it y. • Red efi n it ion of t h e lea d er sh ip a n d m a n a

ge-m en t fu n ct ion s in s ch ools.

E a ch s ch ool n eed s t o d evelop a v ision of t h e t y p e of p r ov ision w h ich w ill b e offer ed in t o t h e n ext cen t u r y. T h e sen ior m a n a ger s of t h e s ch ool sh ou ld lea d t h e va r iou s s t a k eh old er s (su ch a s gover n or s, com m u n it y, s t a ff, p a r en t s a n d p u p ils ) in t h e bu ild in g of a p ict u r e w h ich w ill h elp t o m a k e a r ea lit y of t h e v is ion . T h e t ech n iq u e of scen a r io bu ild in g is a u s efu l a p p r oa ch t o u t ilise.

Scen a r io bu ild in g is a m et h od of en v isa gin g t h e fu t u r e w h ich in volves bu ild in g a n ou t lin e or s k et ch of t h e m a jor d evelop m en t s w h ich m igh t t a k e p la ce. It is esp ecia lly a p p r op r ia t e w h en t h e m a jor t r en d s a ffect in g t h e p r ov ision w ill b e t h e r es u lt of n on -q u a n t ifi a ble fa ct or s. M a n y h ea d t ea ch er s a r e s ce p t ica l of t r y in g t o look t oo fa r a h ea d . Scen a r io bu ild in g r ecog-n is es t h e u ecog-n p r ed ict a b ilit y of t h e fu t u r e. T h e ou t lin es cr ea t ed a r e n ot t o b e s een a s p r ed ic-t ion s bu ic-t a s p oss ible s cen a r ios. T h is sh ou ld p r ove h elp fu l t o sch ool lea d er s b eca u se it is im p or t a n t t o r ecogn is e t h a t d ecision s t a k en n ow w ill h ave lon g-t er m im p lica t ion s a n d

t h a t cu r r en t d ecis ion t a k in g s h ou ld a llow for t h e u n cer t a in t ies a s exem p lifi ed in t h e sce-n a r ios.

T h e scen a r ios cr ea t ed n eed t o b e cr ed ible, u sefu l a n d u n d er st a n d a ble if t h ey a r e t o b e b elieved . Wh en bu ild in g t h e scen a r ios, it is im p or t a n t t o in volve p eop le w h o h ave in t u -it ion , a r e cr ea t ive a n d w h o h ave good ju d gm en t . T h is w ill h elp t o en su r e su fficien t for e-sigh t bu t a lso t o gen er a t e scen a r ios w h ich a r e cr ed ible. At t h is cr ea t ive st a ge, t h e b en efi t s ca n b e seen of n ot h av in g a s en ior m a n a ge-m en t t ea ge-m w h o a r e a ll a lik e; a r a n ge of v iew s a n d s om e t en sion s a n d d isa gr eem en t s sh ou ld r esu lt in b et t er scen a r ios. A r a n ge of st a k e-h old er s, b ot e-h in t er n a l a n d ext er n a l, n eed t o b e in volved a t t h e scen a r io bu ild in g a n d select in g st a ge, a lt h ou gh m u ch of t h e wor k w ill b e ca r r ied ou t by t h e sen ior m a n a gem en t t ea m a n d t h e gover n or s.

The e vide nc e o f future s thinking in sc ho o ls

On ly s even (17 p er cen t ) of t h e sa m p le of 40 sch ools a ck n ow led ged t h a t t h ey w er e in volved in a n y t y p e of fu t u r es t h in k in g. Of t h ose w h ich h a d con sid er ed fu t u r es t h in k in g, t h is h a d b een a t t h e in st iga t ion of h ea d s or d e p u t ies w h o h a d b een on in n ova t ive cou r ses w h ich h a d in volved m a jor sect ion s on sce-n a r io bu ild isce-n g a sce-n d fu t u r es t h isce-n k isce-n g. Isce-n t h e r em a in d er of t h e sch ools t h er e w a s n o ev i-d en ce of p la n n in g or fu t u r es t h in k in g b eyon i-d fi ve yea r s. T h is is d esp it e t h e fa ct t h a t t h e p u p ils h a d a fi ve- t o seven -yea r ca r eer in m a n y of t h e s ch ools a n d m a n y of t h e st a ff h a d a 20-yea r ca r eer t h er e. Of t h e seven s ch ools t h a t h a d in volved t h em selves in fu t u r es t h in k in g:

• fou r sch ools h a d sp en t t im e w r it in g sce-n a r ios d escr ib isce-n g w h a t t h e s ch ool m igh t b e lik e a t s om e p oin t in t h e t w en t y -fi r st cen t u r y ;

• t wo h a d con st r u ct ed list s of t h e k ey fea -t u r es w h ich -t h ey exp ec-t ed -t o b e a p p a r en -t in t h e ea r ly st a ges of t h e cen t u r y ; • on e h ea d d escr ib ed h er v is ion of ed u ca

-t ion a l p r ov ision for a p a r -t icu la r gr ou p of ch ild r en in a la r ge cen t r e of p op u la t ion . Of t h e r em a in in g 33 sch ools, t h er e w a s lit t le or n o ev id en ce of t h is t y p e of t h in k in g t a k in g p la ce a lt h ou gh fi ve of t h ese sch ools r esp on d ed t h a t t h ey r ecogn ised t h e im p or t a n ce of fu t u r es t h in k in g a n d h op ed t o “get r ou n d t o it soon ”. Wit h t h e exp losion of in t er es t in t h e n ew t ech n ologies t h a t w ill d om in a t e m u ch of t h e ed u ca t ion a n d lea r n in g p r a ct ice in t h e n ext cen t u r y, t h is is a d ist u r b in g fi n d in g.

Strategic planning

St r a t e gic p la n n in g is t h e p r ocess of m a t ch in g t h e sch ool’s a ct iv it ies t o t h e cu r r en t a n d em er gin g en v ir on m en t , b ea r in g in m in d w h a t

Bre nt Davie s and Linda Ellis o n Future s and strate gic pe rspe c tive s in sc ho o l planning

Inte rnatio nal Jo urnal o f Educ atio nal Manage me nt 1 2 / 3 [1 9 9 8 ] 1 3 3 –1 4 0

ca n fea s ibly b e a ch ieved w it h t h e r es ou r ce b a se w h ich ca n b e gen er a t ed . T h e p r ocess of s t r a t e gic p la n n in g ca n b e seen t o en com p a s s t h r ee s t a ges (a s a r t icu la t ed by J oh n s on a n d Sch oles, 1997) a n d t h u s t o lin k in t o d evelop -m en t p la n n in g:

1 S tra tegic a n a lysis. T h is is w h er e t h e a im is t o for m a v iew of t h e s t r a t e gic p os it ion of t h e s ch ool a n d t h e k ey fa ct or s w h ich w ill in fl u en ce it in b ot h t h e sh or t a n d lon g t er m . T h ese fa ct or s w ill a ffect t h e ch oice of st r a t e gy. To a p p r ecia t e fu lly t h e s t r a t e gic p os it ion of t h e s ch ool it is n eces sa r y t o u n d er st a n d h ow a w id e r a n ge of st a k eh old er s, s u ch a s p u p ils, s t a ff, em p loyer s, gover n or s a n d t h e com m u n it y, v iew t h e sit u a -t ion w h ich -t h e sch ool fa ces a n d i-t s p os sible d ir ect ion . T h e in for m a t ion w ill u s u a lly b e a s sem bled by t h e s en ior m a n a gem en t t ea m .

2 S tra tegic ch oice. T h is in volves t h e id en t ifi ca t ion or gen er a t ion of op t ion s, t h e eva lu a -t ion of -t h ose op -t ion s a n d -t h e selec-t ion of a n a p p r op r ia t e s t r a t e gy. At t h is st a ge, t h r ee gr ou p s of q u est ion s s h ou ld b e a s k ed in or d er t o eva lu a t e t h e a p p r op r ia t en es s of ea ch op t ion w h ich h a s b een gen er a t ed . T h es e t h r ee gr ou p s of q u est ion s r ela t e t o t h e s u it a b ilit y, a cce p t a b ilit y a n d fea s ib ilit y of ea ch op t ion :

• S u itab ility. Does t h e p r op os a l over com e d ifficu lt ies id en t ifi ed in st r a t e gic a n a ly -s i-s, exp loit t h e -s ch ool’-s -s t r en gt h -s a n d op p or t u n it ies a n d in t e gr a t e w it h t h e s ch ool’s a im s a n d ob ject ives ?

• A ccep tab ility. T h is in volves t h e s ch ool’s va lu e s y s t em a n d con sid er s w h et h er t h e p r op os a l is in a ccor d w it h t h e s ch ool’s va lu es.

• Fea sib ility. Ca n t h e op t ion b e fu n d ed ? Ca n t h e sch ool p er for m a t t h e r eq u ir ed level? Ca n t h e n eces s a r y m a r k et p os it ion b e a ch ieved ?

T h e fi n a l d ecision on ch oices wou ld n or -m a lly b e -m a d e by t h e gover n or s, in con s u l-t a l-t ion w il-t h l-t h e h ea d l-t ea ch er or w il-t h l-t h e w h ole sen ior m a n a gem en t t ea m .

3 S tra tegic im p lem en ta tion . T h is is a ch ieved t h r ou gh d evelop m en t p la n n in g a n d is cover ed in a la t er s ect ion . It in volves p la n -n i-n g h ow t h e ch oice of s t r a t e gy ca -n b e p u t in t o effect a n d m a n a gin g t h e n ecess a r y ch a n ges.

The e vide nc e o f strate gic planning in sc ho o ls

On ly fi ve of t h e s ch ools h a d con s id er ed a lon ger -t er m (fi ve-yea r ) for m a l p la n n in g p r oces s. T h e r em a in d er s t ill focu sed on s h or t -t er m in cr em en -t a l p la n s. M or e s ign ifi ca n -t ly, t h r ee of t h es e fi ve s ch ools h a d for m ed fi ve-yea r p la n s a s a r es u lt of a s p ecifi c ext er n a l

d em a n d (eit h er in cr ea sin g t h e p u p il in t a k e or t ech n ology colle ge st a t u s) a n d n ot a s p a r t of t h e st a n d a r d p la n n in g p r oces s.

Ver y sign ifi ca n t ly, on ly on e sch ool h a d con sid er ed t h e fi n a n cia l fu t u r e over a fi ve-yea r t im e sca le u sin g p r oject ed a ct iv it ies a n d t h eir cost s s et a ga in st lik ely p u p il r oll a n d , h en ce, est im a t ed in com e t r en d s. T h is w a s a cu r iou s fi n d in g, in t h a t w h ile m ost sch ools h ave som e k n ow led ge of p u p il n u m b er s over a t h r ee- t o fi ve-yea r p er iod , t h ese n u m b er s h ave n ot b een in cor p or a t ed in t o a fi n a n cia l a n d p la n n in g m od el.

In m ost ca ses it w a s ev id en t t h a t r ea ct ive a n d in cr em en t a l t h in k in g p r ed om in a t ed w it h sch ools m a k in g st a n d a r d com m en t s a b ou t t h e d ifficu lt y of p la n n in g ou t sid e t h e a n n u a l bu d get in g cycle. T h is is in t h e con t ext of m a n y of t h e p u p ils h av in g t h r ee t o fi ve yea r s r em a in in g in t h e sch ool bu t t h eir n eed on ly b ein g a n a ly sed on a n a n n u a l b a sis.

Strategic implementation – school development planning

T h is wou ld b e seen a s t h e cr it ica l st a ge a t w h ich t h ose w it h in t h e s ch ool d evelop a p la n for a ch iev in g t h e op t ion s w h ich h ave b een ch osen . At t h is st a ge, t h er e sh ou ld b e r ea lism a b ou t t h e b a la n ce b et w een n ew d evelop m en t s a n d t h e m a in t en a n ce of t h e exist in g a ct iv i-t ies, oi-t h er w ise i-t h er e w ill b e wor k over loa d a n d a la ck of r esou r ces. If t h e p la n s a r e t o com e t o fr u it ion , it is im p or t a n t t o con sid er b ot h t h e p r oces s of cr ea t in g t h e d evelop m en t p la n a n d t h e n a t u r e of t h e d ocu m en t it self.

In t oo m a n y ca ses, t h e d ocu m en t h a s b ecom e so d et a iled a n d u n w ieldy t h a t it ca n -n ot b e u sed a s a wor k i-n g d ocu m e-n t . A u sefu l p h r a s e t o r em em b er is “t h e t h ick er t h e p la n t h e less it a ffect s cla s sr oom p r a ct ice”. It sh ou ld , t h er efor e, b e set ou t in a n ea sily r ea d for m a t a n d wou ld cover t h e follow in g a r ea s:

1 Core a rea s:

• Cu r r icu lu m a n d cu r r icu lu m m a n a ge-m en t .

• H u m a n r es ou r ces.

• P u p il w elfa r e a n d p a st or a l ca r e. • Com m u n it y lin k s.

2 S u p p or t a rea s:

• M a n a gem en t st r u ct u r es a n d a p p r oa ch es. • F in a n cia l r es ou r ces.

• P u p il r oll a n d m a r k et in g. • P h y sica l r esou r ces.

• M on it or in g a n d eva lu a t ion . In clu d ed in t h e d ocu m en t a t ion wou ld b e cost in gs for ea ch a ct iv it y a n d n a m ed r esp on -sib ilit y for t h e a ch ievem en t of t h e t a r get . Rev iew a r r a n gem en t s sh ou ld b e clea r so t h a t p r oblem s or a d d it ion a l r esou r ce n eed s ca n b e d et ect ed a n d su ccess ca n b e r ecogn ised .

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It is im p or t a n t t o con s id er t h e r ole of t h e va r iou s p a r t n er s in for m u la t in g a n d im p le-m en t in g d evelop le-m en t p la n s. Wh ile gover n or s a n d s en ior m a n a ger s a r e ext en sively in volved in t h e m or e s t r a t e gic a sp ect s of p la n n in g, t h e s t a ff a n d p u p ils w ill n eed t o b e m or e d ee p ly in volved in d evelop m en t p la n n in g. N or m a lly, a d evelop m en t p la n n in g gr ou p or s en ior t ea m w ill b e over seein g t h e p r ocess w h ich t u r n s t h e s t r a t e gic d ecision s in t o a ct ion a n d w h ich en s u r es t h e m a in t en a n ce of t h e s ch ool’s on go-in g a ct iv it ies. T h er e w ill n eed t o b e fr eq u en t com m u n ica t ion s b et w een s ch ool gr ou p s su ch a s cu r r icu la r a r ea s, k ey st a ge t ea m s, s ch ool cou n cil a n d s u p p or t st a ff, so t h a t t h e a ct iv i-t ies a n d i-t a r gei-t s w h ich a r e w r ii-t i-t en in i-t o i-t h e p la n a r e r ea list ic a n d a p p r op r ia t e a s w ell a s con t r ibu t in g t o t h e a ch ievem en t of t h e s t r a t e-gic a im s a n d t h e s t r a t e e-gic op t ion s ch osen .

The e vide nc e o f de ve lo pme nt planning in sc ho o ls

All 40 s ch ools r e p or t ed t h a t t h ey h a d d evelop -m en t p la n s, w it h sever a l q u ot in g t h e OF STE D (Office for St a n d a r d s in E d u ca t ion ) p r ocess a s a ca t a ly s t for b r in gin g t oget h er cu r r icu lu m a n d ot h er p la n s in t o a m or e coh er en t w h ole sch ool p la n n in g p r ocess. T h ir t een s ch ools h a d a t h r ee-yea r p la n w h ile t h e r em a in in g 27 sch ools h a d ext en d ed t h eir on e-yea r p la n in t o a s econ d yea r.

Som e s ch ools in d ica t ed t h a t a cr os s-sch ool p la n n in g gr ou p (oft en in clu d in g gover n or s) h a d b een r es p on sible for p u t t in g t h e d ocu -m en t t oget h er. In ot h er s t h e con s t r u ct ion of t h e p la n h a d fa llen t o t h e h ea d or a d e p u t y.

T h er e w er e se p a r a t e p la n s for ea ch s u b ject a r ea a n d for ot h er a sp ect s of t h e s ch ool’s wor k a lt h ou gh t h e for m a t of t h es e s u b -u n it p la n s d id n ot a lw ay s follow t h a t of t h e m a in p la n s o t h a t it w a s d ifficu lt t o t r a ck t h e p r ior i-t ies i-t h r ou gh . In oi-t h er s, i-t h er e w a s a clea r lin k b et w een w h ole s ch ool ob ject ives a n d t h os e in su b -p la n s. In q u a n t it a t ive t er m s, 24 of t h e sch ools s h ow ed clea r lin k s w h er e in t h e r em a in in g 16 t h er e s eem ed t o b e a n a d h oc collect ion of s u b -p la n s a n d t ot a l p la n s w h ich h a d ver y lit t le in t er r ela t ion sh ip.

Mos t s ch ools h a d fou n d t h e h ea d in gs of cor e a n d s u p p or t a r ea s a n d t h e gr id layou t (w h ich w e h a d p r op os ed in ou r ea r lier wor k ) u sefu l. As w e h a d or igin a lly h op ed , t h ey h a d a d a p t ed t h e s y s t em t o su it t h eir ow n s it u a t ion w it h ext r a sect ion s a d d ed , for exa m p le “p a r en t s a n d t h e com m u n it y ”.

T h er e is a n eed for a s y s t em of m on it or in g in or d er t o ch eck p r ogr es s t ow a r d s t h e t a r -get s. T h is a sp ect h a s oft en b een n e glect ed in sch ools. We fou n d t h a t on ly 18 h a d d et a iled sy s t em s for m on it or in g t h e p r ogr es s t ow a r d s va r iou s t a r get s. T h is u s u a lly in volved a m em -b er of t h e s en ior m a n a gem en t t ea m or t h e

gover n or s. Wh en q u est ion ed , t h e sch ools r evea led a r a n ge of a p p r oa ch es su ch a s: • r e p or t in g (ver b a lly or in w r it in g) t o a

m eet in g of SMT or gover n or s on p r ogr ess; • d iscu ss ion w it h lin e m a n a ger on a for t

-n igh t ly b a sis ;

• r e p or t in g t er m ly t o n om in a t ed m em b er of SM T ;

• gover n or or lin e m a n a ger a t t en d in g t ea m m eet in gs t o m a k e a ju d gem en t a b ou t p r ogr es s.

On e s ch ool h a d u sed a d a t a b a s e t o en t er t a r -get s, d a t es, r es p on sible p er son a n d n a m e of p er son w h o wou ld m on it or p r ogr ess. T h is seem ed com p lex bu t en a bled t h e in for m a t ion t o b e p r in t ed ou t a ccor d in g t o n a m e, t a r get or d u e d a t e for ea se of u se.

Re fle c tio ns

In gen er a l w e h ave w it n es sed a sign ifi ca n t ch a n ge in d evelop m en t p la n n in g in sch ools sin ce ou r ea r ly wor k in 1992. We w er e in t er -est ed t o see t h a t ou r ea r lier m od el for sch ool p la n n in g w h ich w e h a d d evelop ed t h r ou gh p a r t n er sh ip s w it h sch ools h a d led t o m u ch u sefu l wor k . All sch ools in ou r su r vey h a d p la n s w h ich ext en d ed over t wo yea r s w it h sever a l b ein g ext en d ed over t h r ee. We fou n d , h ow ever, t h a t m ost sch ools h a d n ot , in t h e in t er ven in g t im e, m oved for w a r d s t h em selves t o con sid er m or e lon g-t er m a p p r oa ch es t o d ir ect ion set t in g or sh a r p en ed t h eir t a r get set t in g p r oces ses in t h e d evelop m en t p la n -n i-n g s t a ge. T h e a p p r oa ch es w h ich w e fou -n d w er e, on t h e w h ole, in cr em en t a l. Wit h t h e r a p id ch a n ges in t h e econ om y a n d societ y, t oget h er w it h t h e r evolu t ion in t ea ch in g a n d lea r n in g offer ed by t h e n ew lea r n in g t ech -n ologies, it wou ld seem ver y d esir a ble t h a t m or e fu n d a m en t a l lon g-t er m p la n n in g sh ou ld t a k e p la ce.

T h e t h r ee-st a ge m od el h a s p r oved u sefu l in id en t ify in g t h e con ce p t s of fu t u r es t h in k in g, st r a t e gic p la n n in g a n d sh or t er -t er m sch ool d evelop m en t p la n n in g. H ow ever, even if sch ools d o t a k e on a m or e st r a t e gic p la n n in g fu n ct ion , t h er e is st ill a p r oblem of a p p ly in g t h is p r ocess in a n er a of r a p id ch a n ge. T h is w a s r ecogn ised by P or t er w h o fou n d :

a gr ow in g r ecogn it ion t h a t t h e p r oces s es for st r a t e gic p la n n in g w er e n ot p r om ot in g st r a t e gic t h in k in g … m ea n in gles s lon g-t er m p r oject ion s ob s cu r ed s t r a t e gic in s igh t … (P or t er, 1987, p. 22).

A r elia n ce on s t r a t e gic p la n n in g a s su m es a r a t ion a l a n d p r ed ict a ble p r ocess w h ich , in p r a ct ica l t er m s, m ay n ot b e p ossible in t h e cu r r en t t u r bu len t en v ir on m en t . It m ay a lso t en d t o b e ver y in cr em en t a l, d esp it e w h a t it s p r op on en t s say. We h ave, t h er efor e, s ou gh t a n

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a lt er n a t ive p er sp ect ive for t h e n ext p h a se of ou r r es ea r ch p r oject .

A revised model for school

planning

In on e of t h e m ost ou t st a n d in g p ieces w h ich w e h ave r ea d on t h e t op ic of cop in g w it h a t u r bu len t en v ir on m en t , Boisot (1995) p r o-v id es t wo k ey a r ea s of a n a ly sis in h is ch a p t er “P r e p a r in g for t u r bu len ce: t h e ch a n gin g r ela t ion s h ip b et w een s t r a t e gy a n d m a n a gem en t d evelop gem en t in t h e lea r n in g or ga n isa -t ion ”. H e s u gges -t s -t h a -t con -t r ol, w h ich is in h er en t in t h e con ce p t s of st r a t e gy, is r en -d er e-d in effect ive b eca u s e of t h e t u r bu len ce ca u s ed by r a p id ly in cr ea sin g r a t es of ch a n ge. As a r es u lt h e su ggest s t h a t “fr om t h e lit er a -t u r e, w e ca n id en -t ify fou r b a s ic -t y p es of r es p on s e: (1) s t r a t e gic p la n n in g, (2) em er gen t s t r a t e gy, (3) in t r a p r en eu r sh ip, (4) s t r a t e gic in t en t ” (Boisot , 1995, p. 32). In F igu r e 3, on e a xis r ela t es t o t h e d e gr ee of t u r bu len ce, a n d h en ce ch a n ge, in t h e en v ir on m en t a n d t h e s econ d t o t h e level of u n d er st a n d in g t h a t a n or ga n is a t ion h a s of t h e t u r bu len ce a n d ch a n ge in w h ich it exist s. Bois ot t h en lin k s ea ch of t h e fou r r es p on s es w it h t h ese con d i-t ion s of i-t u r bu len ce a n d u n d er s i-t a n d in g.

St r a t e gic p la n n in g is b a sed on t h er e b ein g a p r ed ict a ble en v ir on m en t w h ich ca n b e id en t i-fi ed s o t h a t a p p r op r ia t e s t r a t e gies ca n b e im p lem en t ed in a r a t ion a l, s t ea dy w ay. T h e r a t e of ch a n ge is a ss u m ed t o b e less t h a n t h e or ga n is a t ion ’s a b ilit y t o u n d er s t a n d a n d a d a p t t o t h os e ch a n ges. In t h e ed u ca t ion a l con t ext , r a p id ch a n ge over t h e la s t t en yea r s, a n d t h e fu t u r e im p a ct of t ech n ology on lea r n -in g, h a s ca s t d ou b t a s t o w h et h er s t r a t e gic p la n n in g over a t h r ee- t o fi ve-yea r p er iod is p oss ible. Bois ot (1995, p p. 33-5) s u gges t s t h a t a lt er n a t ive a p p r oa ch es s h ou ld b e con sid er ed .

E m er gen t st r a t e gy a ssu m es in cr em en t a l ch a n ge w it h a d ju st m en t t o t h e st r a t e gy a s n ew in for m a t ion b ecom es ava ila ble. T h u s, in a con t ext of low r a t e of t u r bu len ce a n d low levels of u n d er st a n d in g, a ser ies of ch a n ges t a k e p la ce w h ich p la n n er s ch a r a ct er ise a s a p r ocess of “d isjoin t ed in cr em en t a lism ”. It cou ld b e s een in m a n y s ch ools in t h e 1970s bu t is in a p p r op r ia t e in t h e cu r r en t en v ir on m en t of r a p id ch a n ge

In t r a p r en eu r sh ip a ss u m es t h a t t h e d e gr ee of t u r bu len ce in t h e sy st em is so gr ea t , a n d u n d er st a n d in g by t h e cen t r e so low, t h a t t h e cen t r e ca n n ot p la n in a n in t e gr a t ed w ay. As a r esu lt , d ecen t r a lis ed u n it s a r e en cou r a ged t o r ea ct t o t h eir s p ecifi c cir cu m st a n ces a n d r ela t e t o t h e cen t r e in a loosely cou p led w ay. T h u s, loca lis ed su cces ses a n d fa ilu r es bu ild a d ir ect ion for t h e or ga n isa t ion . T h is

fr a gm en t ed a p p r oa ch is in a p p r op r ia t e a n d u n n ecessa r y in a r ela t ively sm a ll a n d loca lised or ga n isa t ion su ch a s a sch ool a lt h ou gh elem en t s of it ca n b e seen w it h in t h e ed u ca t ion sect or a s a w h ole.

St r a t e gic in t en t , t h e fi n a l a p p r oa ch , is on e w h ich h a s a gr ea t d ea l of va lu e for t h e ed u ca t ion a list , a s a n a lt er n a t ive t o s t r a t e gic p la n n in g. Boisot (p. 37) b elieves t h a t a n or ga n isa -t ion “op er a -t in g in a r e gim e of s -t r a -t e gic in -t en -t ca n u se a com m on v ision t o k ee p t h e b eh av -iou r of it s em p loyees a lign ed w it h a com m on p u r p ose”. T h is is a ver y p ow er fu l w ay of lin k in g fu t u r es t h in k in g a n d st r a t e gy a s a w ay of p r ov id in g d ir ect ion a n d p u r p ose for a n or ga n isa t ion a s it com b in es h igh levels of t u r bu len ce bu t m a in t a in s h igh levels of u n d er st a n d in g of t h e cor e d ir ect ion in t h is en v ir on m en t .

We h ave a d a p t ed Boisot ’s m od el a n d focu sed on t wo of t h e fou r d om a in s t h a t h e ou t lin es, t h ose of st r a t e gic in t en t a n d st r a t e-gic p la n n in g. We b elieve t h a t sch ools op er a t e p a r t ly in a h igh ly t u r bu len t en v ir on m en t a n d , in su ch cir cu m s t a n ces, t h e a p p r op r ia t e st r a t e gy is t o cr ea t e a st r a t e gic in t en t for t h e sch ool. P a r t of a sch ool’s en v ir on m en t is m or e p r ed ict a ble a n d less t u r bu len t a n d , in t h ose cir cu m st a n ces, t ech n iq u es a n d a p p r oa ch es t h a t a r e ava ila ble fr om t h e t r a d it ion a l bu si-n ess sch ool a p p r oa ch t o st r a t e gic p la si-n si-n isi-n g ca n b e u sefu l. F igu r e 4 h igh ligh t s t h ese t wo d om a in s.

Wit h st r a t e gic in t en t , t h e s ch ool ca n b e seen in F igu r e 4 t o m ove u pw a r d a n d t o t h e r igh t a s it es t a blis h es “a p r ocess of cop in g w it h t u r bu len ce t h r ou gh a d ir ect , in t u it ive u n d er st a n d -in g, em a n a t -in g fr om t h e t op of t h e fi r m a n d gu id in g it s effor t s” (Boisot , 1995, p. 36) . We wou ld su ggest t h a t a sch ool w h ich is d ea lin g w it h eit h er a lon ger -t er m t im e fr a m e or a less p r ed ict a ble en v ir on m en t n eed s t o bu ild in a ll of it s s t a ff a com m on st r a t e gic in t en t b a sed on

high intrapreneurship

Turbule nc e

lo w emergent strategy

strategic intent

strategic planning

lo w Unde rs tanding high

Source: Bo is o t (1 9 9 5 , p.4 0 ) Figure 3

Bre nt Davie s and Linda Ellis o n Future s and strate gic pe rspe c tive s in sc ho o l planning

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t h e va lu es, a im s a n d a m b it ion s of t h e s ch ool w h ich a ll st a ff ca n a r t icu la t e a n d t o w h ich t h ey ca n a lign t h em selves. T h u s, fa ced w it h n ew a n d u n t r ied sit u a t ion s t h ey ca n d r aw on t h a t com m on u n d er st a n d in g a s a fr a m e of r efer en ce.

Wit h s t r a t e gic p la n n in g t h e s ch ool is t r y in g t o ca p t u r e t h e t u r bu len ce a n d u n d er s t a n d it . As it d oes t h is a n d in cr ea ses it s level of u n d er s t a n d in g it m oves d ow n fr om left t o r igh t in F igu r e 4 a n d is a ble t o p la n m or e a n d m or e of it s a ct iv it ies. In s u ch a ca s e, t h e fa ct t h a t a ct iv it ies ca n b e p la n n ed , im p lem en t ed a n d t h e r esu lt s eva lu a t ed in a r ea son a b ly con s is t en t a n d p r oa ct ive m a n n er is d u e t o on e of t wo fa ct or s. E it h er t h e en v ir on m en t is on e w h ich is r ela t ed t o t h e s h or t er t er m a n d is m or e p r ed ict a ble or, a lt er n a t ively, t h e n a t u r e of t h e a ct iv it y is t r a d it ion a l or in cr em en t a l a n d n ot s u b ject t o sign ifi ca n t t u r bu len ce or ch a n ge. T h u s, a s ch ool in s u ch a s it u a t ion ca n h ave a clea r st r a t e gic p la n for t h e d efi n a ble p a r t of it s a ct iv it ies.

Ou r r econ ce p t u a lisa t ion of t h e p la n n in g p r oces s (F igu r e 5) su gges t s t h a t sch ools

sh ou ld en ga ge in t h r ee t y p es of p la n n in g a ct iv it ies w h ich occu r con cu r r en t ly a n d in t er a ct a n d r ein for ce ea ch ot h er. F ir st , fu t u r es t h in k in g id en t ifi es lon ger t er m fu n d a m en t a l sh ift s in t h e ed u ca t ion a l en v ir on -m en t . Secon d , a st r a t e gic in t en t is cr ea t ed for t h e less p r ed ict a ble a r ea s of m ed iu m -t er m p la n n in g a n d t r a d it ion a l st r a t e gic p la n n in g is u t ilised for t h e d efi n a ble a n d p r ed ict a ble a r ea s. In cr ea sed gover n m en t em p h a sis on va lu e-a d d ed p er for m a n ce in d ica t or s a n d gen er a l ou t com e m ea su r es h a s given ext r a im p or t a n ce t o t h e con ce p t of t a r get set t in g a n d m ea su r in g t h e ou t com es a ch ieved so t h e sch ool d evelop m en t p la n w ill b e over t a k en r a p id ly by a n ew for m a t , t h a t of t h e op er a -t ion a l -t a r ge-t -se-t -t in g p la n . T h e -t h ir d -t y p e of p la n n in g in ou r m od el is, t h er efor e, a on e- or t wo-yea r op er a t ion a l t a r get -s et t in g p r ocess in w h ich t h e sch ool set s m ea su r a ble t a r get s for t h e w h ole sch ool, su b -a r ea s, st a ff a n d p u p ils.

Conclusion

We b elieve t h a t t h e r efor m a n d r est r u ct u r in g of t h e ed u ca t ion sy s t em a n d esp ecia lly t h e focu s on selfm a n a gin g s ch ools ca n b e con sid -er ed t o en com p a ss t wo p h a ses. T h e fi r st p h a se is d ele ga t ion t o sch ools, w h er e p ow er a n d r esp on sib ilit y h a s b een p a s sed t o t h e sit e level. T h e secon d p h a se in volves sch ools in r esp on d in g a n d t a k in g t h e in it ia t ive t o seek t h eir ow n m a n a gem en t solu t ion s r a t h er t h a n ju st r es p on d in g t o ext er n a l a ccou n t a b ilit y d em a n d s. In t h is con t ext , m ov in g t o t a k e r esp on sib ilit y for t h e w h ole p la n n in g p r ocess r a t h er t h a n t h e r eq u ir em en t s t o com p let e a sh or t -t er m d evelop m en t p la n is a m ea su r e of or ga n isa t ion a l m a t u r it y. H ow fa r sch ools sh ou ld m ove in t h is d ir ect ion w ill b e t h e focu s of t h e n ext s t a ge of ou r r es ea r ch w h ich w ill b e a n in -d e p t h a n a ly sis of t en s ch ools t o

high

Turbule nc e

lo w

strategic intent

strategic planning

lo w Unde rs tanding high

Source: Bo is o t (1 9 9 5 , p.4 0 ) Figure 4

Strate gic inte nt and s trate gic planning

Future s Thinking

Ope ratio nal Targe t-s e tting plans Strate gic Inte nt Strate gic Planning Figure 5

Bre nt Davie s and Linda Ellis o n Future s and strate gic pe rspe c tive s in sc ho o l planning

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a s cer t a in t h e va lid it y of t h e n ew m od el a s a n effect ive t ool for s ch ools.

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Bea r e, H . a n d Sla u gh t er, R. (1993), E d u ca tion for th e T w en ty-First Cen tu r y, Rou t led ge, Lon d on . Boisot , M. (1985), “P r e p a r in g for t u r bu len ce”, in

Ga r r a t t , B. (E d .), Dev elop in g S tra tegic T h ou gh t, McGr aw -H ill, Lon d on . Br oa d h ea d , P., Cu ck le, P., H od gs on , J . a n d

Du n for d , J . (1996), “Im p r ov in g p r im a r y sch ools t h r ou gh sch ool d evelop m en t p la n n in g”, E d u ca tion M a n a gem en t & A d m in istra -tion , Vol. 24 N o. 3, p p. 277-90.

Ca ldw ell, B.J . (1997), “Glob a l t r en d s a n d exp ect a -t ion s for -t h e fu r -t h er r efor m of s ch ools ” a n d “T h in k in g in t im e a Gesta lt for s ch ools of t h e n ew m illen n iu m ”, in Dav ies. B. a n d E llis on , L. (E d s), S ch ool L ea d ersh ip for th e 21st Cen tu r y – A Com p eten cy a n d K n ow led ge A p p r oa ch , Rou t led ge, Lon d on .

Dav ies, B. (1997), “Ret h in k in g t h e ed u ca t ion a l con t ext : a r een gin eer in g a p p r oa ch ”, in Dav ies, B. a n d E llison , L. (E d s), S ch ool L ea d er -sh ip for th e 21st Cen tu r y – A Com p eten cy a n d K n ow led ge A p p r oa ch , Rou t led ge, Lon d on . Dav ies, B. a n d E llison , L. (1992), S ch ool Dev elop

-m en t Pla n n in g, Lon g-m a n , H a r low. DE S (1989), Pla n n in g for S ch ool Dev elop m en t,

DE S, Lon d on .

DE S (1991), Dev elop m en t Pla n n in g – A Pra ctica l Gu id e, DE S, Lon d on .

Dr u ck er, P. (1993), Post-ca p ita list S ociety, H a r p er Bu sin ess, N ew Yor k , N Y.

Ger s t n er, L.V., Sem er a d , R.D., Doy le, D.P. a n d J oh n s on , W.B. (1994), R ein v en tin g E d u ca tion : A m er ica ’s Pu blic S ch ools, Du t t on , N ew Yor k , N Y.

Giles, C. (1997), S ch ool Dev elop m en t Pla n n in g, N or t h cot e H ou se, P ly m ou t h .

H a n dy, C. (1994), T h e E m p ty R a in coa t: M a k in g S en se of th e Fu tu re, H u t ch in son , Lon d on . H a r gr eaves, D. (1994), T h e M osa ic of L ea r n in g:

S ch ools a n d T ea ch ers for th e N ew Cen tu r y, Dem os, Lon d on .

H a r gr eaves, D. a n d H op k in s, D. (1991), T h e E m p ow ered S ch ool: T h e M a n a gem en t a n d Pra ctice of Dev elop m en t Pla n n in g, Ca ssell, Lon d on .

J oh n s on , G. a n d Sch oles, K. (1997), E x p lor in g Cor p ora te S tra tegy, P r en t ice-H a ll, Lon d on . M a cGilch r ist , B., Mor t im or e, P., Sava ge, J . a n d

Ber es for d , C. (1995), Pla n n in g M a tters – T h e Im p a ct of Dev elop m en t Pla n n in g in Pr i-m a r y S ch ools, P a u l Ch a p i-m a n P u blis h in g, Lon d on .

M in t zb er g, H . (1994), T h e R ise a n d Fa ll of S tra tegic Pla n n in g, P r en t ice-H a ll, H em el H em p st ea d . P or t er, M . (1987), “Cor p or a t e st r a t e gy : t h e st a t e of

s t r a t e gic t h in k in g”, T h e E con om ist, 23 May. P u ffit , R., St ot en , B. a n d Win k ley, D. (1992), B u

si-n ess Pla si-n si-n isi-n g for S ch ools, Losi-n gm a si-n , H a r low. Sk elt on , M ., Reeves, G. a n d P lay foot , D. (1991),

Dev elop m en t Pla n n in g for Pr im a r y S ch ools, N F E R/ N elson , Win d s or.

Wes t , M . a n d Ain scow, M. (1991), M a n a gin g S ch ool Dev elop m en t – A Pra ctica l Gu id e, Dav id F u lt on , Lon d on .

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(1994), Ger s t n er et a l. (1994) a n d Ca ldw ell (1997). A s u m m a r y is p r ov id ed by Dav ies (1997) w h o con s id er s t h e t r en d s t h a t a r e a lr ea dy ev id en t bu t w h ich w ill b ecom e of in cr ea sin g im por ta n ce (Davies, 1997, pp. 20-21): • T h e d evelop m en t of st a t e a n d n a t ion a l

cu r r icu lu m a n d t es t in g fr a m ewor k s is p r ov id in g m ea s u r es of ou t p u t a n d va lu e-a d d ed , t h u s in cr ee-a sin g in for m e-a t ion for p a r en t a l ch oice.

• Rela t in g va lu e-a d d ed ed u ca t ion a l ga in s t o r esou r ce levels a llow s sch ools t o b e com -p a r ed in t er m s of “va lu e for m on ey ”. H ow ca n t h ey a ch ieve in cr ea sed p er for m a n ce w it h t h e s a m e r esou r ce level?

• In cr ea s ed d iffer en t ia t ion b et w een s ch ools en cou r a ges m or e s p ecia lis ed p r ov ision . • Sign ifi ca n t ly en h a n ced levels of p a r en t a l

ch oice.

• Con s id er a ble ch a n ges in s t a ffin g p a t t er n s a n d a r r a n gem en t s, m or e p a r a p r ofes sion -a ls, cor e -a n d p er ip h er y s t -a ff, fi xed -t er m p er for m a n ce-led con t r a ct s, s ch ool-s it e p ay b a r ga in in g.

• Ra d ica l ch a n ges in t h e n a t u r e of t ea ch in g a n d lea r n in g a s t h e im p a ct of t h e n ew t ea ch in g a n d lea r n in g t ech n ologies ga t h -er s p a ce.

• Gr ea t er va r iet ies of fi n a n ce w it h blu r r in g b et w een s t a t eon ly a n d p r iva t eon ly fu n d -in g of sch ools.

• Con t r a ct in g ou t of ed u ca t ion a l a s w ell a s s er v ice elem en t s of sch oolin g.

• A r e-exa m in a t ion of t h e b ou n d a r ies b et w een d iffer en t st a ges of ed u ca t ion a n d b et w een ed u ca t ion a n d t h e com m u n it y. • Red efi n it ion of t h e lea d er sh ip a n d m a n a

ge-m en t fu n ct ion s in s ch ools.

E a ch s ch ool n eed s t o d evelop a v ision of t h e t y p e of p r ov ision w h ich w ill b e offer ed in t o t h e n ext cen t u r y. T h e sen ior m a n a ger s of t h e s ch ool sh ou ld lea d t h e va r iou s s t a k eh old er s (su ch a s gover n or s, com m u n it y, s t a ff, p a r en t s a n d p u p ils ) in t h e bu ild in g of a p ict u r e w h ich w ill h elp t o m a k e a r ea lit y of t h e v is ion . T h e t ech n iq u e of scen a r io bu ild in g is a u s efu l a p p r oa ch t o u t ilise.

Scen a r io bu ild in g is a m et h od of en v isa gin g t h e fu t u r e w h ich in volves bu ild in g a n ou t lin e or s k et ch of t h e m a jor d evelop m en t s w h ich m igh t t a k e p la ce. It is esp ecia lly a p p r op r ia t e w h en t h e m a jor t r en d s a ffect in g t h e p r ov ision w ill b e t h e r es u lt of n on -q u a n t ifi a ble fa ct or s. M a n y h ea d t ea ch er s a r e s ce p t ica l of t r y in g t o look t oo fa r a h ea d . Scen a r io bu ild in g r ecog-n is es t h e u ecog-n p r ed ict a b ilit y of t h e fu t u r e. T h e ou t lin es cr ea t ed a r e n ot t o b e s een a s p r ed ic-t ion s bu ic-t a s p oss ible s cen a r ios. T h is sh ou ld p r ove h elp fu l t o sch ool lea d er s b eca u se it is im p or t a n t t o r ecogn is e t h a t d ecision s t a k en n ow w ill h ave lon g-t er m im p lica t ion s a n d

t h a t cu r r en t d ecis ion t a k in g s h ou ld a llow for t h e u n cer t a in t ies a s exem p lifi ed in t h e sce-n a r ios.

T h e scen a r ios cr ea t ed n eed t o b e cr ed ible, u sefu l a n d u n d er st a n d a ble if t h ey a r e t o b e b elieved . Wh en bu ild in g t h e scen a r ios, it is im p or t a n t t o in volve p eop le w h o h ave in t u -it ion , a r e cr ea t ive a n d w h o h ave good ju d gm en t . T h is w ill h elp t o en su r e su fficien t for e-sigh t bu t a lso t o gen er a t e scen a r ios w h ich a r e cr ed ible. At t h is cr ea t ive st a ge, t h e b en efi t s ca n b e seen of n ot h av in g a s en ior m a n a ge-m en t t ea ge-m w h o a r e a ll a lik e; a r a n ge of v iew s a n d s om e t en sion s a n d d isa gr eem en t s sh ou ld r esu lt in b et t er scen a r ios. A r a n ge of st a k e-h old er s, b ot e-h in t er n a l a n d ext er n a l, n eed t o b e in volved a t t h e scen a r io bu ild in g a n d select in g st a ge, a lt h ou gh m u ch of t h e wor k w ill b e ca r r ied ou t by t h e sen ior m a n a gem en t t ea m a n d t h e gover n or s.

The e vide nc e o f future s thinking in sc ho o ls On ly s even (17 p er cen t ) of t h e sa m p le of 40 sch ools a ck n ow led ged t h a t t h ey w er e in volved in a n y t y p e of fu t u r es t h in k in g. Of t h ose w h ich h a d con sid er ed fu t u r es t h in k in g, t h is h a d b een a t t h e in st iga t ion of h ea d s or d e p u t ies w h o h a d b een on in n ova t ive cou r ses w h ich h a d in volved m a jor sect ion s on sce-n a r io bu ild isce-n g a sce-n d fu t u r es t h isce-n k isce-n g. Isce-n t h e r em a in d er of t h e sch ools t h er e w a s n o ev i-d en ce of p la n n in g or fu t u r es t h in k in g b eyon i-d fi ve yea r s. T h is is d esp it e t h e fa ct t h a t t h e p u p ils h a d a fi ve- t o seven -yea r ca r eer in m a n y of t h e s ch ools a n d m a n y of t h e st a ff h a d a 20-yea r ca r eer t h er e. Of t h e seven s ch ools t h a t h a d in volved t h em selves in fu t u r es t h in k in g:

• fou r sch ools h a d sp en t t im e w r it in g sce-n a r ios d escr ib isce-n g w h a t t h e s ch ool m igh t b e lik e a t s om e p oin t in t h e t w en t y -fi r st cen t u r y ;

• t wo h a d con st r u ct ed list s of t h e k ey fea -t u r es w h ich -t h ey exp ec-t ed -t o b e a p p a r en -t in t h e ea r ly st a ges of t h e cen t u r y ; • on e h ea d d escr ib ed h er v is ion of ed u ca

-t ion a l p r ov ision for a p a r -t icu la r gr ou p of ch ild r en in a la r ge cen t r e of p op u la t ion . Of t h e r em a in in g 33 sch ools, t h er e w a s lit t le or n o ev id en ce of t h is t y p e of t h in k in g t a k in g p la ce a lt h ou gh fi ve of t h ese sch ools r esp on d ed t h a t t h ey r ecogn ised t h e im p or t a n ce of fu t u r es t h in k in g a n d h op ed t o “get r ou n d t o it soon ”. Wit h t h e exp losion of in t er es t in t h e n ew t ech n ologies t h a t w ill d om in a t e m u ch of t h e ed u ca t ion a n d lea r n in g p r a ct ice in t h e n ext cen t u r y, t h is is a d ist u r b in g fi n d in g.

Strategic planning

St r a t e gic p la n n in g is t h e p r ocess of m a t ch in g t h e sch ool’s a ct iv it ies t o t h e cu r r en t a n d em er gin g en v ir on m en t , b ea r in g in m in d w h a t

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ca n fea s ibly b e a ch ieved w it h t h e r es ou r ce b a se w h ich ca n b e gen er a t ed . T h e p r ocess of s t r a t e gic p la n n in g ca n b e seen t o en com p a s s t h r ee s t a ges (a s a r t icu la t ed by J oh n s on a n d Sch oles, 1997) a n d t h u s t o lin k in t o d evelop -m en t p la n n in g:

1 S tra tegic a n a lysis. T h is is w h er e t h e a im is t o for m a v iew of t h e s t r a t e gic p os it ion of t h e s ch ool a n d t h e k ey fa ct or s w h ich w ill in fl u en ce it in b ot h t h e sh or t a n d lon g t er m . T h ese fa ct or s w ill a ffect t h e ch oice of st r a t e gy. To a p p r ecia t e fu lly t h e s t r a t e gic p os it ion of t h e s ch ool it is n eces sa r y t o u n d er st a n d h ow a w id e r a n ge of st a k eh old er s, s u ch a s p u p ils, s t a ff, em p loyer s, gover n or s a n d t h e com m u n it y, v iew t h e sit u a -t ion w h ich -t h e sch ool fa ces a n d i-t s p os sible d ir ect ion . T h e in for m a t ion w ill u s u a lly b e a s sem bled by t h e s en ior m a n a gem en t t ea m .

2 S tra tegic ch oice. T h is in volves t h e id en t ifi ca t ion or gen er a t ion of op t ion s, t h e eva lu a -t ion of -t h ose op -t ion s a n d -t h e selec-t ion of a n a p p r op r ia t e s t r a t e gy. At t h is st a ge, t h r ee gr ou p s of q u est ion s s h ou ld b e a s k ed in or d er t o eva lu a t e t h e a p p r op r ia t en es s of ea ch op t ion w h ich h a s b een gen er a t ed . T h es e t h r ee gr ou p s of q u est ion s r ela t e t o t h e s u it a b ilit y, a cce p t a b ilit y a n d fea s ib ilit y of ea ch op t ion :

• S u itab ility. Does t h e p r op os a l over com e d ifficu lt ies id en t ifi ed in st r a t e gic a n a ly -s i-s, exp loit t h e -s ch ool’-s -s t r en gt h -s a n d op p or t u n it ies a n d in t e gr a t e w it h t h e s ch ool’s a im s a n d ob ject ives ?

• A ccep tab ility. T h is in volves t h e s ch ool’s va lu e s y s t em a n d con sid er s w h et h er t h e p r op os a l is in a ccor d w it h t h e s ch ool’s va lu es.

• Fea sib ility. Ca n t h e op t ion b e fu n d ed ? Ca n t h e sch ool p er for m a t t h e r eq u ir ed level? Ca n t h e n eces s a r y m a r k et p os it ion b e a ch ieved ?

T h e fi n a l d ecision on ch oices wou ld n or -m a lly b e -m a d e by t h e gover n or s, in con s u l-t a l-t ion w il-t h l-t h e h ea d l-t ea ch er or w il-t h l-t h e w h ole sen ior m a n a gem en t t ea m .

3 S tra tegic im p lem en ta tion . T h is is a ch ieved t h r ou gh d evelop m en t p la n n in g a n d is cover ed in a la t er s ect ion . It in volves p la n -n i-n g h ow t h e ch oice of s t r a t e gy ca -n b e p u t in t o effect a n d m a n a gin g t h e n ecess a r y ch a n ges.

The e vide nc e o f strate gic planning in sc ho o ls

On ly fi ve of t h e s ch ools h a d con s id er ed a lon ger -t er m (fi ve-yea r ) for m a l p la n n in g p r oces s. T h e r em a in d er s t ill focu sed on s h or t -t er m in cr em en -t a l p la n s. M or e s ign ifi ca n -t ly, t h r ee of t h es e fi ve s ch ools h a d for m ed fi ve-yea r p la n s a s a r es u lt of a s p ecifi c ext er n a l

d em a n d (eit h er in cr ea sin g t h e p u p il in t a k e or t ech n ology colle ge st a t u s) a n d n ot a s p a r t of t h e st a n d a r d p la n n in g p r oces s.

Ver y sign ifi ca n t ly, on ly on e sch ool h a d con sid er ed t h e fi n a n cia l fu t u r e over a fi ve-yea r t im e sca le u sin g p r oject ed a ct iv it ies a n d t h eir cost s s et a ga in st lik ely p u p il r oll a n d , h en ce, est im a t ed in com e t r en d s. T h is w a s a cu r iou s fi n d in g, in t h a t w h ile m ost sch ools h ave som e k n ow led ge of p u p il n u m b er s over a t h r ee- t o fi ve-yea r p er iod , t h ese n u m b er s h ave n ot b een in cor p or a t ed in t o a fi n a n cia l a n d p la n n in g m od el.

In m ost ca ses it w a s ev id en t t h a t r ea ct ive a n d in cr em en t a l t h in k in g p r ed om in a t ed w it h sch ools m a k in g st a n d a r d com m en t s a b ou t t h e d ifficu lt y of p la n n in g ou t sid e t h e a n n u a l bu d get in g cycle. T h is is in t h e con t ext of m a n y of t h e p u p ils h av in g t h r ee t o fi ve yea r s r em a in in g in t h e sch ool bu t t h eir n eed on ly b ein g a n a ly sed on a n a n n u a l b a sis.

Strategic implementation – school development planning

T h is wou ld b e seen a s t h e cr it ica l st a ge a t w h ich t h ose w it h in t h e s ch ool d evelop a p la n for a ch iev in g t h e op t ion s w h ich h ave b een ch osen . At t h is st a ge, t h er e sh ou ld b e r ea lism a b ou t t h e b a la n ce b et w een n ew d evelop m en t s a n d t h e m a in t en a n ce of t h e exist in g a ct iv i-t ies, oi-t h er w ise i-t h er e w ill b e wor k over loa d a n d a la ck of r esou r ces. If t h e p la n s a r e t o com e t o fr u it ion , it is im p or t a n t t o con sid er b ot h t h e p r oces s of cr ea t in g t h e d evelop m en t p la n a n d t h e n a t u r e of t h e d ocu m en t it self.

In t oo m a n y ca ses, t h e d ocu m en t h a s b ecom e so d et a iled a n d u n w ieldy t h a t it ca n -n ot b e u sed a s a wor k i-n g d ocu m e-n t . A u sefu l p h r a s e t o r em em b er is “t h e t h ick er t h e p la n t h e less it a ffect s cla s sr oom p r a ct ice”. It sh ou ld , t h er efor e, b e set ou t in a n ea sily r ea d for m a t a n d wou ld cover t h e follow in g a r ea s:

1 Core a rea s:

• Cu r r icu lu m a n d cu r r icu lu m m a n a ge-m en t .

• H u m a n r es ou r ces.

• P u p il w elfa r e a n d p a st or a l ca r e. • Com m u n it y lin k s.

2 S u p p or t a rea s:

• M a n a gem en t st r u ct u r es a n d a p p r oa ch es. • F in a n cia l r es ou r ces.

• P u p il r oll a n d m a r k et in g. • P h y sica l r esou r ces.

• M on it or in g a n d eva lu a t ion . In clu d ed in t h e d ocu m en t a t ion wou ld b e cost in gs for ea ch a ct iv it y a n d n a m ed r esp on -sib ilit y for t h e a ch ievem en t of t h e t a r get . Rev iew a r r a n gem en t s sh ou ld b e clea r so t h a t p r oblem s or a d d it ion a l r esou r ce n eed s ca n b e d et ect ed a n d su ccess ca n b e r ecogn ised .

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It is im p or t a n t t o con s id er t h e r ole of t h e va r iou s p a r t n er s in for m u la t in g a n d im p le-m en t in g d evelop le-m en t p la n s. Wh ile gover n or s a n d s en ior m a n a ger s a r e ext en sively in volved in t h e m or e s t r a t e gic a sp ect s of p la n n in g, t h e s t a ff a n d p u p ils w ill n eed t o b e m or e d ee p ly in volved in d evelop m en t p la n n in g. N or m a lly, a d evelop m en t p la n n in g gr ou p or s en ior t ea m w ill b e over seein g t h e p r ocess w h ich t u r n s t h e s t r a t e gic d ecision s in t o a ct ion a n d w h ich en s u r es t h e m a in t en a n ce of t h e s ch ool’s on go-in g a ct iv it ies. T h er e w ill n eed t o b e fr eq u en t com m u n ica t ion s b et w een s ch ool gr ou p s su ch a s cu r r icu la r a r ea s, k ey st a ge t ea m s, s ch ool cou n cil a n d s u p p or t st a ff, so t h a t t h e a ct iv i-t ies a n d i-t a r gei-t s w h ich a r e w r ii-t i-t en in i-t o i-t h e p la n a r e r ea list ic a n d a p p r op r ia t e a s w ell a s con t r ibu t in g t o t h e a ch ievem en t of t h e s t r a t e-gic a im s a n d t h e s t r a t e e-gic op t ion s ch osen . The e vide nc e o f de ve lo pme nt planning in sc ho o ls

All 40 s ch ools r e p or t ed t h a t t h ey h a d d evelop -m en t p la n s, w it h sever a l q u ot in g t h e OF STE D (Office for St a n d a r d s in E d u ca t ion ) p r ocess a s a ca t a ly s t for b r in gin g t oget h er cu r r icu lu m a n d ot h er p la n s in t o a m or e coh er en t w h ole sch ool p la n n in g p r ocess. T h ir t een s ch ools h a d a t h r ee-yea r p la n w h ile t h e r em a in in g 27 sch ools h a d ext en d ed t h eir on e-yea r p la n in t o a s econ d yea r.

Som e s ch ools in d ica t ed t h a t a cr os s-sch ool p la n n in g gr ou p (oft en in clu d in g gover n or s) h a d b een r es p on sible for p u t t in g t h e d ocu -m en t t oget h er. In ot h er s t h e con s t r u ct ion of t h e p la n h a d fa llen t o t h e h ea d or a d e p u t y.

T h er e w er e se p a r a t e p la n s for ea ch s u b ject a r ea a n d for ot h er a sp ect s of t h e s ch ool’s wor k a lt h ou gh t h e for m a t of t h es e s u b -u n it p la n s d id n ot a lw ay s follow t h a t of t h e m a in p la n s o t h a t it w a s d ifficu lt t o t r a ck t h e p r ior i-t ies i-t h r ou gh . In oi-t h er s, i-t h er e w a s a clea r lin k b et w een w h ole s ch ool ob ject ives a n d t h os e in su b -p la n s. In q u a n t it a t ive t er m s, 24 of t h e sch ools s h ow ed clea r lin k s w h er e in t h e r em a in in g 16 t h er e s eem ed t o b e a n a d h oc collect ion of s u b -p la n s a n d t ot a l p la n s w h ich h a d ver y lit t le in t er r ela t ion sh ip.

Mos t s ch ools h a d fou n d t h e h ea d in gs of cor e a n d s u p p or t a r ea s a n d t h e gr id layou t (w h ich w e h a d p r op os ed in ou r ea r lier wor k ) u sefu l. As w e h a d or igin a lly h op ed , t h ey h a d a d a p t ed t h e s y s t em t o su it t h eir ow n s it u a t ion w it h ext r a sect ion s a d d ed , for exa m p le “p a r en t s a n d t h e com m u n it y ”.

T h er e is a n eed for a s y s t em of m on it or in g in or d er t o ch eck p r ogr es s t ow a r d s t h e t a r -get s. T h is a sp ect h a s oft en b een n e glect ed in sch ools. We fou n d t h a t on ly 18 h a d d et a iled sy s t em s for m on it or in g t h e p r ogr es s t ow a r d s va r iou s t a r get s. T h is u s u a lly in volved a m em -b er of t h e s en ior m a n a gem en t t ea m or t h e

gover n or s. Wh en q u est ion ed , t h e sch ools r evea led a r a n ge of a p p r oa ch es su ch a s: • r e p or t in g (ver b a lly or in w r it in g) t o a

m eet in g of SMT or gover n or s on p r ogr ess; • d iscu ss ion w it h lin e m a n a ger on a for t

-n igh t ly b a sis ;

• r e p or t in g t er m ly t o n om in a t ed m em b er of SM T ;

• gover n or or lin e m a n a ger a t t en d in g t ea m m eet in gs t o m a k e a ju d gem en t a b ou t p r ogr es s.

On e s ch ool h a d u sed a d a t a b a s e t o en t er t a r -get s, d a t es, r es p on sible p er son a n d n a m e of p er son w h o wou ld m on it or p r ogr ess. T h is seem ed com p lex bu t en a bled t h e in for m a t ion t o b e p r in t ed ou t a ccor d in g t o n a m e, t a r get or d u e d a t e for ea se of u se.

Re fle c tio ns

In gen er a l w e h ave w it n es sed a sign ifi ca n t ch a n ge in d evelop m en t p la n n in g in sch ools sin ce ou r ea r ly wor k in 1992. We w er e in t er -est ed t o see t h a t ou r ea r lier m od el for sch ool p la n n in g w h ich w e h a d d evelop ed t h r ou gh p a r t n er sh ip s w it h sch ools h a d led t o m u ch u sefu l wor k . All sch ools in ou r su r vey h a d p la n s w h ich ext en d ed over t wo yea r s w it h sever a l b ein g ext en d ed over t h r ee. We fou n d , h ow ever, t h a t m ost sch ools h a d n ot , in t h e in t er ven in g t im e, m oved for w a r d s t h em selves t o con sid er m or e lon g-t er m a p p r oa ch es t o d ir ect ion set t in g or sh a r p en ed t h eir t a r get set t in g p r oces ses in t h e d evelop m en t p la n -n i-n g s t a ge. T h e a p p r oa ch es w h ich w e fou -n d w er e, on t h e w h ole, in cr em en t a l. Wit h t h e r a p id ch a n ges in t h e econ om y a n d societ y, t oget h er w it h t h e r evolu t ion in t ea ch in g a n d lea r n in g offer ed by t h e n ew lea r n in g t ech -n ologies, it wou ld seem ver y d esir a ble t h a t m or e fu n d a m en t a l lon g-t er m p la n n in g sh ou ld t a k e p la ce.

T h e t h r ee-st a ge m od el h a s p r oved u sefu l in id en t ify in g t h e con ce p t s of fu t u r es t h in k in g, st r a t e gic p la n n in g a n d sh or t er -t er m sch ool d evelop m en t p la n n in g. H ow ever, even if sch ools d o t a k e on a m or e st r a t e gic p la n n in g fu n ct ion , t h er e is st ill a p r oblem of a p p ly in g t h is p r ocess in a n er a of r a p id ch a n ge. T h is w a s r ecogn ised by P or t er w h o fou n d :

a gr ow in g r ecogn it ion t h a t t h e p r oces s es for st r a t e gic p la n n in g w er e n ot p r om ot in g st r a t e gic t h in k in g … m ea n in gles s lon g-t er m p r oject ion s ob s cu r ed s t r a t e gic in s igh t … (P or t er, 1987, p. 22).

A r elia n ce on s t r a t e gic p la n n in g a s su m es a r a t ion a l a n d p r ed ict a ble p r ocess w h ich , in p r a ct ica l t er m s, m ay n ot b e p ossible in t h e cu r r en t t u r bu len t en v ir on m en t . It m ay a lso t en d t o b e ver y in cr em en t a l, d esp it e w h a t it s p r op on en t s say. We h ave, t h er efor e, s ou gh t a n

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a lt er n a t ive p er sp ect ive for t h e n ext p h a se of ou r r es ea r ch p r oject .

A revised model for school

planning

In on e of t h e m ost ou t st a n d in g p ieces w h ich w e h ave r ea d on t h e t op ic of cop in g w it h a t u r bu len t en v ir on m en t , Boisot (1995) p r o-v id es t wo k ey a r ea s of a n a ly sis in h is ch a p t er “P r e p a r in g for t u r bu len ce: t h e ch a n gin g r ela t ion s h ip b et w een s t r a t e gy a n d m a n a gem en t d evelop gem en t in t h e lea r n in g or ga n isa -t ion ”. H e s u gges -t s -t h a -t con -t r ol, w h ich is in h er en t in t h e con ce p t s of st r a t e gy, is r en -d er e-d in effect ive b eca u s e of t h e t u r bu len ce ca u s ed by r a p id ly in cr ea sin g r a t es of ch a n ge. As a r es u lt h e su ggest s t h a t “fr om t h e lit er a -t u r e, w e ca n id en -t ify fou r b a s ic -t y p es of r es p on s e: (1) s t r a t e gic p la n n in g, (2) em er gen t s t r a t e gy, (3) in t r a p r en eu r sh ip, (4) s t r a t e gic in t en t ” (Boisot , 1995, p. 32). In F igu r e 3, on e a xis r ela t es t o t h e d e gr ee of t u r bu len ce, a n d h en ce ch a n ge, in t h e en v ir on m en t a n d t h e s econ d t o t h e level of u n d er st a n d in g t h a t a n or ga n is a t ion h a s of t h e t u r bu len ce a n d ch a n ge in w h ich it exist s. Bois ot t h en lin k s ea ch of t h e fou r r es p on s es w it h t h ese con d i-t ion s of i-t u r bu len ce a n d u n d er s i-t a n d in g.

St r a t e gic p la n n in g is b a sed on t h er e b ein g a p r ed ict a ble en v ir on m en t w h ich ca n b e id en t i-fi ed s o t h a t a p p r op r ia t e s t r a t e gies ca n b e im p lem en t ed in a r a t ion a l, s t ea dy w ay. T h e r a t e of ch a n ge is a ss u m ed t o b e less t h a n t h e or ga n is a t ion ’s a b ilit y t o u n d er s t a n d a n d a d a p t t o t h os e ch a n ges. In t h e ed u ca t ion a l con t ext , r a p id ch a n ge over t h e la s t t en yea r s, a n d t h e fu t u r e im p a ct of t ech n ology on lea r n -in g, h a s ca s t d ou b t a s t o w h et h er s t r a t e gic p la n n in g over a t h r ee- t o fi ve-yea r p er iod is p oss ible. Bois ot (1995, p p. 33-5) s u gges t s t h a t a lt er n a t ive a p p r oa ch es s h ou ld b e con sid er ed .

E m er gen t st r a t e gy a ssu m es in cr em en t a l ch a n ge w it h a d ju st m en t t o t h e st r a t e gy a s n ew in for m a t ion b ecom es ava ila ble. T h u s, in a con t ext of low r a t e of t u r bu len ce a n d low levels of u n d er st a n d in g, a ser ies of ch a n ges t a k e p la ce w h ich p la n n er s ch a r a ct er ise a s a p r ocess of “d isjoin t ed in cr em en t a lism ”. It cou ld b e s een in m a n y s ch ools in t h e 1970s bu t is in a p p r op r ia t e in t h e cu r r en t en v ir on m en t of r a p id ch a n ge

In t r a p r en eu r sh ip a ss u m es t h a t t h e d e gr ee of t u r bu len ce in t h e sy st em is so gr ea t , a n d u n d er st a n d in g by t h e cen t r e so low, t h a t t h e cen t r e ca n n ot p la n in a n in t e gr a t ed w ay. As a r esu lt , d ecen t r a lis ed u n it s a r e en cou r a ged t o r ea ct t o t h eir s p ecifi c cir cu m st a n ces a n d r ela t e t o t h e cen t r e in a loosely cou p led w ay. T h u s, loca lis ed su cces ses a n d fa ilu r es bu ild a d ir ect ion for t h e or ga n isa t ion . T h is

fr a gm en t ed a p p r oa ch is in a p p r op r ia t e a n d u n n ecessa r y in a r ela t ively sm a ll a n d loca lised or ga n isa t ion su ch a s a sch ool a lt h ou gh elem en t s of it ca n b e seen w it h in t h e ed u ca t ion sect or a s a w h ole.

St r a t e gic in t en t , t h e fi n a l a p p r oa ch , is on e w h ich h a s a gr ea t d ea l of va lu e for t h e ed u ca t ion a list , a s a n a lt er n a t ive t o s t r a t e gic p la n n in g. Boisot (p. 37) b elieves t h a t a n or ga n isa -t ion “op er a -t in g in a r e gim e of s -t r a -t e gic in -t en -t ca n u se a com m on v ision t o k ee p t h e b eh av -iou r of it s em p loyees a lign ed w it h a com m on p u r p ose”. T h is is a ver y p ow er fu l w ay of lin k in g fu t u r es t h in k in g a n d st r a t e gy a s a w ay of p r ov id in g d ir ect ion a n d p u r p ose for a n or ga n isa t ion a s it com b in es h igh levels of t u r bu len ce bu t m a in t a in s h igh levels of u n d er st a n d in g of t h e cor e d ir ect ion in t h is en v ir on m en t .

We h ave a d a p t ed Boisot ’s m od el a n d focu sed on t wo of t h e fou r d om a in s t h a t h e ou t lin es, t h ose of st r a t e gic in t en t a n d st r a t e-gic p la n n in g. We b elieve t h a t sch ools op er a t e p a r t ly in a h igh ly t u r bu len t en v ir on m en t a n d , in su ch cir cu m s t a n ces, t h e a p p r op r ia t e st r a t e gy is t o cr ea t e a st r a t e gic in t en t for t h e sch ool. P a r t of a sch ool’s en v ir on m en t is m or e p r ed ict a ble a n d less t u r bu len t a n d , in t h ose cir cu m st a n ces, t ech n iq u es a n d a p p r oa ch es t h a t a r e ava ila ble fr om t h e t r a d it ion a l bu si-n ess sch ool a p p r oa ch t o st r a t e gic p la si-n si-n isi-n g ca n b e u sefu l. F igu r e 4 h igh ligh t s t h ese t wo d om a in s.

Wit h st r a t e gic in t en t , t h e s ch ool ca n b e seen in F igu r e 4 t o m ove u pw a r d a n d t o t h e r igh t a s it es t a blis h es “a p r ocess of cop in g w it h t u r bu len ce t h r ou gh a d ir ect , in t u it ive u n d er st a n d -in g, em a n a t -in g fr om t h e t op of t h e fi r m a n d gu id in g it s effor t s” (Boisot , 1995, p. 36) . We wou ld su ggest t h a t a sch ool w h ich is d ea lin g w it h eit h er a lon ger -t er m t im e fr a m e or a less p r ed ict a ble en v ir on m en t n eed s t o bu ild in a ll of it s s t a ff a com m on st r a t e gic in t en t b a sed on

high intrapreneurship

Turbule nc e

lo w emergent strategy

strategic intent

strategic planning

lo w Unde rs tanding high

Source: Bo is o t (1 9 9 5 , p.4 0 ) Figure 3

Bre nt Davie s and Linda Ellis o n Future s and strate gic pe rspe c tive s in sc ho o l planning

Inte rnatio nal Jo urnal o f Educ atio nal Manage me nt 1 2 / 3 [1 9 9 8 ] 1 3 3 –1 4 0

t h e va lu es, a im s a n d a m b it ion s of t h e s ch ool w h ich a ll st a ff ca n a r t icu la t e a n d t o w h ich t h ey ca n a lign t h em selves. T h u s, fa ced w it h n ew a n d u n t r ied sit u a t ion s t h ey ca n d r aw on t h a t com m on u n d er st a n d in g a s a fr a m e of r efer en ce.

Wit h s t r a t e gic p la n n in g t h e s ch ool is t r y in g t o ca p t u r e t h e t u r bu len ce a n d u n d er s t a n d it . As it d oes t h is a n d in cr ea ses it s level of u n d er s t a n d in g it m oves d ow n fr om left t o r igh t in F igu r e 4 a n d is a ble t o p la n m or e a n d m or e of it s a ct iv it ies. In s u ch a ca s e, t h e fa ct t h a t a ct iv it ies ca n b e p la n n ed , im p lem en t ed a n d t h e r esu lt s eva lu a t ed in a r ea son a b ly con s is t en t a n d p r oa ct ive m a n n er is d u e t o on e of t wo fa ct or s. E it h er t h e en v ir on m en t is on e w h ich is r ela t ed t o t h e s h or t er t er m a n d is m or e p r ed ict a ble or, a lt er n a t ively, t h e n a t u r e of t h e a ct iv it y is t r a d it ion a l or in cr em en t a l a n d n ot s u b ject t o sign ifi ca n t t u r bu len ce or ch a n ge. T h u s, a s ch ool in s u ch a s it u a t ion ca n h ave a clea r st r a t e gic p la n for t h e d efi n a ble p a r t of it s a ct iv it ies.

Ou r r econ ce p t u a lisa t ion of t h e p la n n in g p r oces s (F igu r e 5) su gges t s t h a t sch ools

sh ou ld en ga ge in t h r ee t y p es of p la n n in g a ct iv it ies w h ich occu r con cu r r en t ly a n d in t er a ct a n d r ein for ce ea ch ot h er. F ir st , fu t u r es t h in k in g id en t ifi es lon ger t er m fu n d a m en t a l sh ift s in t h e ed u ca t ion a l en v ir on -m en t . Secon d , a st r a t e gic in t en t is cr ea t ed for t h e less p r ed ict a ble a r ea s of m ed iu m -t er m p la n n in g a n d t r a d it ion a l st r a t e gic p la n n in g is u t ilised for t h e d efi n a ble a n d p r ed ict a ble a r ea s. In cr ea sed gover n m en t em p h a sis on va lu e-a d d ed p er for m a n ce in d ica t or s a n d gen er a l ou t com e m ea su r es h a s given ext r a im p or t a n ce t o t h e con ce p t of t a r get set t in g a n d m ea su r in g t h e ou t com es a ch ieved so t h e sch ool d evelop m en t p la n w ill b e over t a k en r a p id ly by a n ew for m a t , t h a t of t h e op er a -t ion a l -t a r ge-t -se-t -t in g p la n . T h e -t h ir d -t y p e of p la n n in g in ou r m od el is, t h er efor e, a on e- or t wo-yea r op er a t ion a l t a r get -s et t in g p r ocess in w h ich t h e sch ool set s m ea su r a ble t a r get s for t h e w h ole sch ool, su b -a r ea s, st a ff a n d p u p ils.

Conclusion

We b elieve t h a t t h e r efor m a n d r est r u ct u r in g of t h e ed u ca t ion sy s t em a n d esp ecia lly t h e focu s on selfm a n a gin g s ch ools ca n b e con sid -er ed t o en com p a ss t wo p h a ses. T h e fi r st p h a se is d ele ga t ion t o sch ools, w h er e p ow er a n d r esp on sib ilit y h a s b een p a s sed t o t h e sit e level. T h e secon d p h a se in volves sch ools in r esp on d in g a n d t a k in g t h e in it ia t ive t o seek t h eir ow n m a n a gem en t solu t ion s r a t h er t h a n ju st r es p on d in g t o ext er n a l a ccou n t a b ilit y d em a n d s. In t h is con t ext , m ov in g t o t a k e r esp on sib ilit y for t h e w h ole p la n n in g p r ocess r a t h er t h a n t h e r eq u ir em en t s t o com p let e a sh or t -t er m d evelop m en t p la n is a m ea su r e of or ga n isa t ion a l m a t u r it y. H ow fa r sch ools sh ou ld m ove in t h is d ir ect ion w ill b e t h e focu s of t h e n ext s t a ge of ou r r es ea r ch w h ich w ill b e a n in -d e p t h a n a ly sis of t en s ch ools t o

high

Turbule nc e

lo w

strategic intent

strategic planning

lo w Unde rs tanding high

Source: Bo is o t (1 9 9 5 , p.4 0 ) Figure 4

Strate gic inte nt and s trate gic planning

Future s Thinking

Ope ratio nal Targe t-s e tting plans Strate gic Inte nt Strate gic Planning

Figure 5

Bre nt Davie s and Linda Ellis o n Future s and strate gic pe rspe c tive s in sc ho o l planning

Inte rnatio nal Jo urnal o f Educ atio nal Manage me nt 1 2 / 3 [1 9 9 8 ] 1 3 3 –1 4 0

a s cer t a in t h e va lid it y of t h e n ew m od el a s a n effect ive t ool for s ch ools.

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