IPCM Is Akin to Marathon Runner 20181023 NHKS Company Report (English)
Jasa Armada Indonesia Tbk (IPCM)
Is Akin to Marathon Runner Company Visit Note | Oct 23, 2018 Is 2018’s Revenue Target Accomplished?
We conduct a site visit to IPCM a few weeks ago. In the early of 2018,
IDR150 billion (+26.5% y-y). It is also heavily reliant on pilotage and towage Dec 2019 TP (IDR) N/A
IPCM Not Rated targeted the revenue of IDR1.1 trillion (+30.6% y-y) and the net profit of
services as its revenue’s main driver in 2018. The growth in port traffic correlates
Consensus Price (IDR) N/A
to IPCM’s revenue; thus,
TP to Consensus Price the improvement in commodities prices, particularly N/A
coal and crude prices boosting export activities, is potential for increasing IPCM’s vs. Last Price N/A revenues.
Shares data Little-Bit-Sanguine IPCM Last Price (IDR) 404
We estimate that IPCM is likely to post revenue of IDR878 billion (+17.6% y-y) Price date as of Oct 19, 2018 and net profit of IDR147 billion (+16.8% y-y). Factors underlining our 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 498/380
conservative estimate are 1)The trade war and the rupiah depreciation Free float (%)
23.1 potential for any changes in policies curbing imports with a view to keep current Outstanding sh.(mn) 5,285 account deficit in check, 2) Until 6M18, IPCM posting revenue of IDR361 billion Market Cap (IDR bn) 2,135 or 32.8% of the target, 3) in accordance to the Ministry of Transportation data, Market Cap (USD mn)
141 traffic containers in ports posting per year average growth of 2.39%, 4) limited Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)
1.05 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)
0.44 number of vessels as setback in increment of services volume.
Foreign Ownership
0.10% Traffic in ports has its rush hours; thus, to keep vessels in well-maintained condition, one vessel should only operate 60% from the total operational hours. Infrastructure
Transportation
This fact urges IPCM to rent vessels with a view to completing its target, sends
Bloomberg
IPCM IJ the cost of partnership to soar, and whittles away gross margin.
Reuters
IPCM.JK Slightly-Below-Average Stock Valuation
Now, IPCM has an attractive valuation as it stocks are traded at a trailing P/E of
Share Price Performance
4.5x (lower than the one-year average P/E of 4.9x) and a trailing P/B 2.0x (lower than the one-year P/B of 2.1x).
Jasa Armada Indonesia Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E
Sales 747 878 936 994
Sales growth 17.6% 6.5% 6.3%
- -9.8%
EBITDA 174 314 389 468 Net Profit 120 147 158 172 EPS (IDR)
23
28
30
33 EPS growth 2.9% 22.4% 7.5% 8.8%
YTD
1M
3M
12M
BVPS (IDR) 190 208 226 247 Abs. Ret.
- 2.9% 1.0% -1.9% 0.5% EBITDA margin 23.3% 35.8% 41.6% 47.0% Rel. Ret.
5.6% 1.4% -0.9% 7.3% NPM 16.1% 16.8% 16.9% 17.3% ROE 12.0% 13.4% 13.3% 13.2% ROA 12.3% 11.1% 11.5% 11.5% ROIC 11.9% 13.7% 13.4% 13.1% P/E 19.0x 14.4x 13.4x 12.3x P/BV 2.3x 1.9x 1.8x 1.6x
Firman Hidayat
EV/EBITDA 10.4x 5.5x 4.2x 3.1x
- 62 21 797 6202, ext:170
DPS (IDR)
46
10
12
11
[email protected] Dividend yield 10.5% 2.5% 3.0% 2.8%
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia
Jasa Armada Indonesia www.nhsec.co.id Investment Thesis
Zero Debt & prepaid system: IPCM is a company with clean balance sheets because its debt portion is a lot lower than that of short-term debt, while its debt ratio to equities is 0.1%. IPCM still has large amounts of funds from the Initial Public Offering (IPO) allocated for business expansions. Besides, its has well-maintained cash flow by applying prepaid system requiring consumers to deposit first. IPCM is committed to giving the guarantee of zero waiting time for its consumers.
Setback of Coal Shipment: Most of coal miners face sea freight setback due to difficulties in obtaining land acquisition license causing coal mines to have no port. IPCM dominates big ports in Sumatera and Kalimantan and makes the best use of the domination to serve coal freight through river and sea to export markets and areas across Indonesia.
Increase in Tariffs: In 2019, IPCM will hike its service tariffs. The tariffs are not automatically increasing, but the increase occurs every two years. The increase in tariffs should be implemented after undergoing any negotiation by considering the business and economic backdrop. However, the Minister Regulation (Permen) establishing that the minimum margin of 25% is the strength factor as the entrepreneur of captive markets.
Increment in Units : IPCM spends IDR223.85 billion from the proceeds of IPO on purchasing 4 tugs assembled by PT Citra Shipyard. The time completion for assembling the four tugs is in January 2020. We are sanguine that in the long-term, the purchasing of four tugs will boost IPCM’s revenue. The purchase implicitly enables IPCM to secure a long-term working contract (10 years at the minimum) with the oil and gas companies. The projection is based on one vessel’s estimated average payback period of 6 years and a vessel depreciation period of 30 years.
New Consumers : IPCM is committed to supporting the oil and gas industry in Indonesia by offering ship to ship (STS) services. It has obtained a number of new contracts with oil companies, such as Petrochina and ExxonMobil running since the end of 2018. In the three next years, IPCM is committed to increasing 50% of its market shares (vs. the current market shares of 10%) at the oil and gas STS services.
Number & Type of Vessels | 2018 Source: Company Data, NHKS Research
Jasa Armada Indonesia www.nhsec.co.id COGS Structure
Partnership Costs: Vessel’s rental costs contribute 30%-35% of COGS. The cost is unavoidable because IPCM requires many vessels to operate during the rush traffic hours from 4 p.m. to 8 p.m., but during the non-rush traffic hours, many vessels are not operated. Responding to the issue, to date, it decides to rent vessels as an efficient option while waiting the assembly completion of four tugs it purchases.
Employees’ Salary: Prioritizing safety, IPCM hires more employees than the number of employees set forth in the re- quirement standard. Besides, IPCM is obliged to give salaries pursuant to the salary’s standard applied in the intercontinental offshore environment. The lack of experts in sea freight makes the issue of taking over employees be unlikely to occur. The sala- ry expenses contribute 30%-35% from COGS.
Fuel: Fuel expenses contributed 16%-20% to COGS. If the average prices of crude are still lower than IDR15,000/ liter, fuel expenses will not be a significant issue for IPCM. On the basis of the synergy of state-owned enterprises, it obtains a 25% dis- count from Pertamina.
Guardian of Commodity and Trade | 2018 Source: Company Data, NHKS Research
Investment Risks: IPCM’s reliance on quality human resources equipped with years of experiences, particularly vessel’s captains.
Pelindo II as the parent entity monitoring IPCM’s policymaking. Risks of any damages and depreciated vessels Decline in port’s traffic heavily affected by export and import activities Under the approval from the Ministry of Transportation, policies on tariffs adjustment occur two years at the fastest
Pilotage & Towage Flow Chart | 2018 Source: Company Data, NHKS Research
Jasa Armada Indonesia www.nhsec.co.id
Rate of Towage Services | 2018 Source: Company Data, NHKS Research Shareholder Structure | 2018 Group Structure | 2018 Source: Company Data, NHKS Research Source: Company Data, NHKS Research
Jasa Armada Indonesia www.nhsec.co.id
Source: Company Data, NHKS Research COGS Breakdown | 1H18
Source: Company Data, NHKS Research Clients by Geographic | 1H18
Revenue Breakdown per Segment | 1H18 Source: Company Data, NHKS Research
Revenue Trend (IDR bn) | 2014– 2020F Source: Company Data, NHKS Research
Performance Highlights Net Profit Trend (IDR bn) | 2014– 2020F
Source: Company Data, NHKS Research Revenue Breakdown per Area | 1H18
Source: Company Data, NHKS Research
Jasa Armada Indonesia www.nhsec.co.id
Pelindo II Operating Area (11 Ports) | 2018 Source: Company Data, NHKS Research Trailling P/E Band | Listing shares to date Trailling P/B Band | Listing shares to date Source: Bloomberg, NHKS Research Source: Bloomberg, NHKS Research
Jasa Armada Indonesia www.nhsec.co.id
Sekilas tentang IPCM A Glance at IPCM
Jasa Armada Indonesia (IPCM) engaging in pilotage and towage services is the subsidiary of state-owned port operator Pelabuhan Indonesia II (Pelindo II or “IPC”) as the primary and largest port management group in Indonesia. Running its business in 1960 as the business unit of Port National Company, IPCM merged into a business unit of Pelindo II in 1992. In 2012, Pelindo II launched the new identity of Jasa Armada Indonesia Tbk as IPC. In July 2013, IPC underwent spin-off and its name was changed into IPC Marine Service. Under the company’s articles of association, IPCM runs its business in pilotage and towage services, vessel guidance, sea freight. Now, its main service is pilotage and sewage services.
IPCM’s Competitiveness in Global Markets
Indonesia as a country with a tremendous economic growth and home to the world’s fourth biggest population offers substantial quantities of export and import activities. The fact is favorable to IPCM because it is potential for boosting IPCM’s revenues inevitably correlates to the export and import traffic in ports.
IPCM has a lot lower market cap. than do its peers in developed countries such, e.g. Japan, China, and South Korea. However, we are optimistic that in future years, IPCM is likely to outperform due to the profitable captive markets in Indonesia’s ports. IPCM succeeds to post the highest net profit margin among its peers. Its relatively cheap stock valuation with a P/E ratio of 4.8x makes IPCM attractive to be collected by investors.
Asian Port & Ship Companies Market Sales Net Profit Net Profit Asset (USD Net Profit ROE P/E Company Cap LTM LTM Growth P/BV mn) Margin LTM LTM (USD mn) (USD mn) (USD mn) LTM Indonesia
IPCM 141 100 56 9 2.86% 16.1% 18.0% 4.8x 2.1x
Japan
4 0.1% 0.19% 365.2x 0.7x
- 81.91% Mitsui E&S 1,523 9,690 6,292
China
Yangzijian Ship 3,378 6,666 3,639 482 37.66% 13.2% 12.56% 7.4x 0.9x China CSSC 2,139 8,042 2,409 (319) 21.34% -13.3% -13.97% N/A 1.0x
South Korea
SAMSUNG Heavy Industries 4,040 12,946 5,242 (575) N/A -11.0% -9.53% N/A 0.6x
- 18.78% -4.0% -9.94% Daewoo Ship & Marine 2,898 10,724 8,653 (349) N/A 0.8x
Taiwan
- 11.30% -31.6% -51.37% CSBC CORP 388 751 468 (148) N/A 0.7x
Source: Bloomberg
Jasa Armada Indonesia www.nhsec.co.id
Summary of Financials
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