Penjadwalan Flowshop dengan Metode Algoritma Genetikdi PT. Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Food Division
Lampiran 1 Peramalan Produk Nugget PT. Charoen Pokphand Indonesia
Food Division
1.
Peramalan Produk Stikie Fiesta
Tabel Data Permintaan Stikie Fiesta 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015
Periode
Jumlah
23 Juni - 29 Juni 2014
3.930
30 Juni - 06 Juli 2014
3.952
07 Juli - 13 Juli 2014
4.819
14 Juli - 20 Juli 2014
3.903
21 Juli - 27 Juli 2014
4.818
28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014
4.490
04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014
4.117
11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014
4.202
18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014
4.173
25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014
4.342
01 September - 07 September 2014
4.509
08 September - 14 September 2014
4.382
15 September - 21 September 2014
3.941
22 September - 28 September 2014
4.145
29 September - 05 Oktober 2014
4.343
06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014
4.141
13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014
5.074
20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014
5.135
27 Oktober - 02 November 2014
4.792
03 November - 09 November 2014
4.734
10 November - 16 November 2014
4.792
17 November - 23 November 2014
4.558
24 November - 30 November 2014
4.720
01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014
4.936
08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014
3.941
15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014
4.145
22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014
4.343
29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015
4.141
05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015
3.891
12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015
4.105
Total
131.514
Penjualan Stikie Fiesta
6.000
5.500
5.000
4.500
Jumlah
4.000
3.500
3.000
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Gambar Diagram Pencar Penjualan Stikie Fiesta
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stikie Fiesta dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
1
3.930
3.930
3.930
2
3.952
3.934,400
3.930,880
3.937,920
0,880
3
4.819
4.111,320
3.966,968
4.255,672
36,088
3.938,800
880,200
774.752,040
4
3.903
4.069,656
3.987,506
4.151,806
20,538
4.291,760
-388,760
151.134,338
5
4.818
4.219,325
4.033,870
4.404,780
46,364
4.172,344
645,656
416.871,670
6
4.490
4.273,460
4.081,788
4.465,132
47,918
4.451,144
38,856
1.509,789
7
4.117
4.242,168
4.113,864
4.370,472
32,076
4.513,050
-396,050
156.855,603
8
4.202
4.234,134
4.137,918
4.330,350
24,054
4.402,548
-200,548
40.219,500
9
4.173
4.221,907
4.154,716
4.289,098
16,798
4.354,404
-181,404
32.907,411
10
4.342
4.245,926
4.172,958
4.318,894
18,242
4.305,896
36,104
1.303,499
11
4.509
4.298,541
4.198,075
4.399,007
25,117
4.337,136
171,864
29.537,234
12
4.382
4.315,233
4.221,507
4.408,959
23,432
4.424,124
-42,124
1.774,431
13
3.941
4.240,386
4.225,283
4.255,489
3,776
4.432,391
-491,391
241.465,115
14
4.145
4.221,309
4.224,488
4.218,130
-0,795
4.259,265
-114,265
13.056,490
15
4.343
4.245,647
4.228,720
4.262,574
4,232
4.217,335
125,665
15.791,692
16
4.141
4.224,718
4.227,920
4.221,516
-0,801
4.266,806
-125,806
15.827,150
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stikie Fiesta dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
17
5.074
4.394,574
4.261,251
4.527,897
33,331
4.220,715
853,285
728.095,291
18
5.135
4.542,659
4.317,533
4.767,785
56,281
4.561,228
573,772
329.214,308
19
4.792
4.592,527
4.372,532
4.812,522
54,999
4.824,066
-32,066
1.028,228
20
4.734
4.620,822
4.422,190
4.819,454
49,658
4.867,521
-133,521
17.827,857
21
4.792
4.655,058
4.468,764
4.841,352
46,574
4.869,112
-77,112
5.946,261
22
4.558
4.635,646
4.502,140
4.769,152
33,376
4.887,926
-329,926
108.851,165
23
4.720
4.652,517
4.532,215
4.772,819
30,075
4.802,528
-82,528
6.810,871
24
4.936
4.709,214
4.567,615
4.850,813
35,400
4.802,894
133,106
17.717,207
25
3.941
4.555,571
4.565,206
4.545,936
-2,409
4.886,213
-945,213
893.427,615
26
4.145
4.473,457
4.546,856
4.400,058
-18,350
4.543,527
-398,527
158.823,770
27
4.343
4.447,366
4.526,958
4.367,774
-19,898
4.381,708
-38,708
1.498,309
28
4.141
4.386,093
4.498,785
4.273,401
-28,173
4.347,876
-206,876
42.797,679
29
3.891
4.287,074
4.456,443
4.117,705
-42,342
4.245,228
-354,228
125.477,476
30
4.105
4.250,659
4.415,286
4.086,032
-41,157
4.075,363
29,637
878,352
144.380,012
MSE
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Stikie Fiesta
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt
Periode
Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
1
3.930
3.733,5
0
2
3.952
3.941,08 20,758
3.733,500 10,925
119,356
3
4.819 4.776,142 102,189
3.961,833 42,858 1.836,808
4
3.903 3.951,767
9,533
4.878,331 -48,767 2.378,220
5
4.818 4.775,165 90,920
3.961,300 42,835 1.834,837
6
4.490 4.508,804 55,192
4.866,085 -18,804
353,590
7
4.117 4.139,350 12,727
4.563,996 -22,350
499,523
8
4.202 4.199,504 17,470
4.152,077
2,496
6,230
9
4.173 4.175,199 13,293
4.216,974 -2,199
4,836
10
4.342 4.334,325 27,876
4.188,492
7,675
58,906
11
4.509 4.501,660 41,822
4.362,201
7,340
53,876
12
4.382 4.390,074 26,481
4.543,482 -8,074
65,189
13
3.941 3.964,778 -18,697
4.416,555 -23,778
565,393
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Stikie Fiesta
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
14
4.145 4.135,054
0,200
3.946,081
9,946
98,923
15
4.343 4.332,613 19,936
4.135,254 10,387
107,890
16
4.141 4.151,577
-0,161
4.352,549 -10,577
111,873
17
5.074 5.027,871 87,485
4.151,416 46,129 2.127,885
18
5.135 5.134,018 89,351
5.115,356
0,982
0,964
19
4.792 4.813,568 48,371
5.223,369 -21,568
465,179
20
4.734 4.740,397 36,217
4.861,939 -6,397
40,922
21
4.792 4.791,231 37,679
4.776,614
0,769
0,591
22
4.558 4.571,546 11,943
4.828,910 -13,546
183,494
23
4.720 4.713,174 24,912
4.583,489
6,826
46,594
24
4.936 4.926,104 43,714
4.738,086
9,896
97,931
25
3.941 3.992,441 -54,024
4.969,818 -51,441 2.646,176
26
4.145 4.134,671 -34,399
3.938,417 10,329
106,688
27
4.343 4.330,864 -11,340
4.100,272 12,136
147,282
28
4.141 4.149,926 -28,300
4.319,524 -8,926
79,673
29
3.891 3.902,531 -50,210
4.121,626 -11,531
132,964
30
4.105 4.092,366 -26,206
3.852,321 12,634
159,618
477,714
MSE
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget Stikie Fiesta
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
1
3.930
2
3.952 3.733,500
10,925
0,000
3
4.819 3.961,833
42,858
31,933
4
3.903 4.878,331
-48,767
91,625
5
4.818 3.961,300
42,835
91,602
6
4.490 4.866,085
-18,804
61,639
7
4.117 4.563,996
-22,350
3,546
8
4.202 4.152,077
2,496
24,846
9
4.173 4.216,974
-2,199
4,695
10
4.342 4.188,492
7,675
9,874
11
4.509 4.362,201
7,340
0,335
12
4.382 4.543,482
-8,074
15,414
13
3.941 4.416,555
-23,778
15,704
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget Stikie Fiesta (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
14
4.145 3.946,081
9,946
33,724
15
4.343 4.135,254
10,387
0,441
16
4.141 4.352,549
-10,577
20,964
17
5.074 4.151,416
46,129
56,706
18
5.135 5.115,356
0,982
45,147
19
4.792 5.223,369
-21,568
22,550
20
4.734 4.861,939
-6,397
15,171
21
4.792 4.776,614
0,769
7,166
22
4.558 4.828,910
-13,546
14,315
23
4.720 4.583,489
6,826
20,372
24
4.936 4.738,086
9,896
3,070
25
3.941 4.969,818
-51,441
61,337
26
4.145 3.938,417
10,329
61,770
27
4.343 4.100,272
12,136
1,807
28
4.141 4.319,524
-8,926
21,062
29
3.891 4.121,626
-11,531
2,605
30
4.105 3.852,321
12,634
24,165
763,585
Jumlah
Moving Range Chart
80,000
60,000
E
40,000
UCL
20,000
1/3UCL
0,000
2/3UCL
-20,000
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
LCL
-40,000
1/3LCL
-60,000
2/3LCL
-80,000
GambarMoving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk Nugget Stikie
Fiesta
2.
Peramalan Produk Nugget ABC Fiesta
Tabel Data Permintaan Nugget ABC Fiesta 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015
Periode
Jumlah
23 Juni - 29 Juni 2014
2.681
30 Juni - 06 Juli 2014
2.848
07 Juli - 13 Juli 2014
2.980
14 Juli - 20 Juli 2014
3.061
21 Juli - 27 Juli 2014
2.833
28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014
2.873
04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014
3.000
11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014
2.993
18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014
2.671
25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014
2.639
01 September - 07 September 2014
2.783
08 September - 14 September 2014
2.817
15 September - 21 September 2014
2.668
22 September - 28 September 2014
2.912
29 September - 05 Oktober 2014
3.070
06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014
2.836
13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014
2.798
20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014
2.916
27 Oktober - 02 November 2014
2.938
03 November - 09 November 2014
2.937
10 November - 16 November 2014
2.513
17 November - 23 November 2014
2.599
24 November - 30 November 2014
2.781
01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014
2.797
08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014
2.668
15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014
2.912
22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014
3.070
29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015
2.836
05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015
2.795
12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015
2.915
85.140
Total
Penjualan Nugget ABC Fiesta
3.400
3.200
3.000
2.800
Jumlah
2.600
2.400
2.200
2.000
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
GambarDiagram Pencar Penjualan Nugget ABC Fiesta
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
1
2.681
2.681
2.681
2
2.848
2.697,700
2.682,670
2.712,730
1,670
3
2.980
2.725,930
2.686,996
2.764,864
4,326
Ft+m
et
et^2
2.714,400
265,600
70.543,360
4
3.061
2.759,437
2.694,240
2.824,634
7,244
2.769,190
291,810
85.153,076
5
2.833
2.766,793
2.701,495
2.832,091
7,255
2.831,878
1,122
1,259
6
2.873
2.777,414
2.709,087
2.845,741
7,592
2.839,346
33,654
1.132,592
7
3.000
2.799,673
2.718,146
2.881,200
9,059
2.853,333
146,667
21.511,209
8
2.993
2.819,006
2.728,232
2.909,780
10,086
2.890,259
102,741
10.555,713
9
2.671
2.804,205
2.735,829
2.872,581
7,597
2.919,866
-248,866
61.934,286
10
2.639
2.787,685
2.741,015
2.834,355
5,186
2.880,178
-241,178
58.166,828
11
2.783
2.787,217
2.745,635
2.828,799
4,620
2.839,541
-56,541
3.196,885
12
2.817
2.790,195
2.750,091
2.830,299
4,456
2.833,419
-16,419
269,584
13
2.668
2.777,976
2.752,880
2.803,072
2,788
2.834,755
-166,755
27.807,230
14
2.912
2.791,378
2.756,730
2.826,026
3,850
2.805,860
106,140
11.265,700
15
3.070
2.819,240
2.762,981
2.875,499
6,251
2.829,876
240,124
57.659,535
16
2.836
2.820,916
2.768,775
2.873,057
5,793
2.881,750
-45,750
2.093,063
17
2.798
2.818,624
2.773,760
2.863,488
4,985
2.878,850
-80,850
6.536,723
18
2.916
2.828,362
2.779,220
2.877,504
5,460
2.868,473
47,527
2.258,816
19
2.938
2.839,326
2.785,231
2.893,421
6,011
2.882,964
55,036
3.028,961
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
20
2.937
2.849,093
2.791,617
2.906,569
6,386
21
2.513
2.815,484
2.794,004
2.836,964
22
2.599
2.793,836
2.793,987
23
2.781
2.792,552
24
2.797
25
2.668
Ft+m
et
et^2
2.899,432
37,568
1.411,355
2,387
2.912,955
-399,955
159.964,002
2.793,685
-0,017
2.839,351
-240,351
57.768,603
2.793,844
2.791,260
-0,144
2.793,668
-12,668
160,478
2.792,997
2.793,759
2.792,235
-0,085
2.791,116
5,884
34,621
2.780,497
2.792,433
2.768,561
-1,326
2.792,150
-124,150
15.413,223
26
2.912
2.793,647
2.792,554
2.794,740
0,121
2.767,235
144,765
20.956,905
27
3.070
2.821,282
2.795,427
2.847,137
2,873
2.794,861
275,139
75.701,469
28
2.836
2.822,754
2.798,160
2.847,348
2,733
2.850,010
-14,010
196,280
29
2.795
2.819,979
2.800,342
2.839,616
2,182
2.850,081
-55,081
3.033,917
30
2.915
2.829,481
2.803,256
2.855,706
2,914
2.841,798
73,202
5.358,533
25.437,140
MSE
Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt
Periode Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
1
2.681
2.547,0
0
2
2.848 2.832,95 14,300 2.546,950
15,052 226,563
3
2.980 2.973,362 20,606 2.847,248
6,638 44,063
4
3.061 3.057,648 23,790 2.993,968
3,352 11,236
5
2.833 2.845,422 11,989 3.081,438 -12,422 154,306
6
2.873 2.872,221 12,730 2.857,411
0,779
0,607
7
3.000 2.994,248 18,195 2.884,951
5,752 33,086
8
2.993 2.993,972 17,271 3.012,443
-0,972
0,945
9
2.671 2.688,012
1,109 3.011,243 -17,012 289,408
10
2.639 2.641,506 -1,272 2.689,121
-2,506
6,280
11
2.783 2.775,862
5,509 2.640,234
7,138 50,951
12
2.817 2.815,219
7,201 2.781,371
1,781
3,172
13
2.668 2.675,721 -0,134 2.822,420
-7,721 59,614
14
2.912 2.900,179 11,096 2.675,587
11,821 139,736
15
3.070 3.062,064 18,635 2.911,275
7,936 62,980
16
2.836 2.848,235
7,012 3.080,699 -12,235 149,695
17
2.798 2.800,862
4,293 2.855,247
-2,862
8,191
18
2.916 2.910,458
9,558 2.805,155
5,542 30,714
19
2.938 2.937,101 10,412 2.920,016
0,899
0,808
20
2.937 2.937,526
9,913 2.947,513
-0,526
0,277
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt (Lanjutan)
Periode Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
21
2.513 2.534,722 -10,723 2.947,439 -21,722 471,845
22
2.599 2.595,250 -7,160 2.523,999
3,750 14,063
23
2.781 2.771,355
2,003 2.588,090
9,645 93,026
24
2.797 2.795,818
3,126 2.773,358
1,182
1,397
25
2.668 2.674,547 -3,094 2.798,944
-6,547 42,863
26
2.912 2.899,973
8,332 2.671,453
12,027 144,649
27
3.070 3.061,915 16,013 2.908,305
8,085 65,367
28
2.836 2.848,096
4,521 3.077,928 -12,096 146,313
29
2.795 2.797,881
1,784 2.852,617
-2,881
8,300
30
2.915 2.909,233
7,262 2.799,665
5,767 33,258
76,457
MSE
TabelVerifikasi Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
1 2.681
2 2.848
2.546,950
15,052
0,000
3 2.980
2.847,248
6,638
8,414
4 3.061
2.993,968
3,352
3,286
5 2.833
3.081,438
-12,422 15,774
6 2.873
2.857,411
0,779 13,201
7 3.000
2.884,951
5,752
4,973
8 2.993
3.012,443
-0,972
6,724
9 2.671
3.011,243
-17,012 16,040
10 2.639
2.689,121
-2,506 14,506
11 2.783
2.640,234
7,138
9,644
12 2.817
2.781,371
1,781
5,357
13 2.668
2.822,420
-7,721
9,502
14 2.912
2.675,587
11,821 19,542
15 3.070
2.911,275
7,936
3,885
16 2.836
3.080,699
-12,235 20,171
17 2.798
2.855,247
-2,862
9,373
18 2.916
2.805,155
5,542
8,404
19 2.938
2.920,016
0,899
4,643
20 2.937
2.947,513
-0,526
1,425
21 2.513
2.947,439
-21,722 21,196
TabelVerifikasi Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
22 2.599
2.523,999
3,750 25,472
23 2.781
2.588,090
9,645
5,895
24 2.797
2.773,358
1,182
8,463
25 2.668
2.798,944
-6,547
7,729
26 2.912
2.671,453
12,027 18,574
27 3.070
2.908,305
8,085
3,942
28 2.836
3.077,928
-12,096 20,181
29 2.795
2.852,617
-2,881
9,215
30 2.915
2.799,665
5,767
8,648
304,179
Jumlah
Moving Range Chart
40,000
30,000
E
20,000
UCL
10,000
1/3UCL
0,000
-10,000
2/3UCL
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
LCL
-20,000
1/3LCL
-30,000
2/3LCL
-40,000
GambarMoving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk Nugget ABC
Fiesta
3.
Peramalan Produk Nugget Champ
TabelData Permintaan Nugget Champ 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015
Periode
Jumlah
07 Juli - 13 Juli 2014
5.576
14 Juli - 20 Juli 2014
4.647
21 Juli - 27 Juli 2014
5.238
28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014
5.290
04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014
6.836
11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014
8.036
18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014
5.998
25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014
6.530
01 September - 07 September 2014
6.599
08 September - 14 September 2014
6.626
15 September - 21 September 2014
5.901
22 September - 28 September 2014
7.151
29 September - 05 Oktober 2014
6.866
06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014
7.683
13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014
5.961
20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014
6.390
27 Oktober - 02 November 2014
6.974
03 November - 09 November 2014
6.761
10 November - 16 November 2014
9.235
17 November - 23 November 2014
9.383
24 November - 30 November 2014
9.439
01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014
9.199
08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014
5.901
15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014
7.151
22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014
6.866
29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015
7.683
05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015
4.575
12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015
4.799
Total
201.343
Penjualan Nugget Champ
9.500
9.000
8.500
8.000
7.500
7.000
6.500
6.000
5.500
5.000
4.500
Jumlah
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
GambarDiagram Pencar Penjualan Nugget Champ
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
1
5.829
5.829
5.829
2
6.220
5.946,300
5.864,190
6.028,410
35,190
3
5.576
5.835,210
5.855,496
5.814,924
-8,694
6.063,600
-487,600
237.753,760
4
4.647
5.478,747
5.742,471
5.215,023
-113,025
5.806,230
-1.159,230
1.343.814,193
5
5.238
5.406,523
5.641,687
5.171,359
-100,785
5.101,998
136,002
18.496,544
6
5.290
5.371,566
5.560,651
5.182,481
-81,036
5.070,574
219,426
48.147,769
7
6.836
5.810,896
5.635,725
5.986,067
75,073
5.101,445
1.734,555
3.008.681,048
8
8.036
6.478,427
5.888,536
7.068,318
252,810
6.061,140
1.974,860
3.900.072,020
9
5.998
6.334,299
6.022,265
6.646,333
133,729
7.321,128
-1.323,128
1.750.667,704
10
6.530
6.393,009
6.133,488
6.652,530
111,223
6.780,062
-250,062
62.531,004
11
6.599
6.454,806
6.229,883
6.679,729
96,396
6.763,753
-164,753
27.143,551
12
6.626
6.506,164
6.312,767
6.699,561
82,884
6.776,125
-150,125
22.537,516
13
5.901
6.324,615
6.316,321
6.332,909
3,555
6.782,445
-881,445
776.945,288
14
7.151
6.572,531
6.393,184
6.751,878
76,863
6.336,464
814,536
663.468,895
15
6.866
6.660,572
6.473,400
6.847,744
80,217
6.828,741
37,259
1.388,233
16
7.683
6.967,300
6.621,570
7.313,030
148,170
6.927,961
755,039
570.083,892
17
5.961
6.665,410
6.634,722
6.696,098
13,152
7.461,200
-1.500,200
2.250.600,040
18
6.390
6.582,787
6.619,142
6.546,432
-15,581
6.709,250
-319,250
101.920,563
19
6.974
6.700,151
6.643,445
6.756,857
24,303
6.530,851
443,149
196.381,036
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
20
6.761
6.718,406
6.665,933
6.770,879
22,488
6.781,160
-20,160
406,426
21
9.235
7.473,384
6.908,168
8.038,600
242,235
6.793,367
2.441,633
5.961.571,707
22
9.383
8.046,269
7.249,598
8.842,940
341,430
8.280,835
1.102,165
1.214.767,687
23
9.439
8.464,088
7.613,945
9.314,231
364,347
9.184,370
254,630
64.836,437
24
9.199
8.684,562
7.935,130
9.433,994
321,185
9.678,578
-479,578
229.995,058
25
5.901
7.849,493
7.909,439
7.789,547
-25,691
9.755,179
-3.854,179
14.854.695,764
26
7.151
7.639,945
7.828,591
7.451,299
-80,848
7.763,856
-612,856
375.592,477
27
6.866
7.407,762
7.702,342
7.113,182
-126,249
7.370,451
-504,451
254.470,811
28
7.683
7.490,333
7.638,739
7.341,927
-63,603
6.986,933
696,067
484.509,268
29
4.575
6.615,733
7.331,837
5.899,629
-306,902
7.278,324
-2.703,324
7.307.960,649
30
4.799
6.070,713
6.953,500
5.187,926
-378,337
5.592,727
-793,727
630.002,551
1.545.314,730
MSE
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt
Periode
Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
1
5.829
5.537,6
0
2
6.220
6.185,88
64,833 5.537,550
34,122 1.164,311
3
5.576 5.609,736
0,736 6.250,711
-33,736 1.138,118
4
4.647 4.695,174
-90,794 5.610,472
-48,174 2.320,734
5
5.238 5.206,319
-30,600 4.604,380
31,681 1.003,686
6
5.290 5.284,286
-19,743 5.175,719
5,714
32,650
7
6.836 6.757,427
129,545 5.264,543
78,573 6.173,716
8
8.036 7.978,549
238,703 6.886,972
57,451 3.300,617
9
5.998 6.108,963
27,874 8.217,252 -110,963 12.312,787
10
6.530 6.510,342
65,225 6.136,837
19,658
386,437
11
6.599 6.597,828
67,451 6.575,567
1,172
1,374
12
6.626 6.627,964
63,719 6.665,279
-1,964
3,857
13
5.901 5.940,534
-11,396 6.691,683
-39,534 1.562,937
14
7.151 7.089,907
104,681 5.929,138
61,093 3.732,355
15
6.866 6.882,429
73,465 7.194,588
-16,429
269,912
16
7.683 7.646,645
142,540 6.955,894
36,355 1.321,686
17
5.961 6.052,409
-31,138 7.789,185
-91,409 8.355,605
18
6.390 6.371,564
3,891 6.021,271
18,436
339,886
19
6.974 6.944,073
60,753 6.375,455
29,927
895,625
20
6.761 6.773,191
37,589 7.004,826
-12,191
148,620
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt (Lanjutan)
Periode
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Xt
9.235
9.383
9.439
9.199
5.901
7.151
6.866
7.683
4.575
4.799
St
9.113,789
9.382,934
9.449,598
9.223,924
6.077,173
7.090,599
6.876,258
7.640,716
4.730,356
4.782,879
Bt
267,890
268,016
247,881
200,526
-134,202
-19,439
-38,929
41,410
-253,767
-223,138
Ft
6.810,780
9.381,679
9.650,950
9.697,479
9.424,450
5.942,971
7.071,160
6.837,329
7.682,126
4.476,589
Et
Et^2
121,211 14.692,107
0,066
0,004
-10,598
112,318
-24,924
621,206
-176,173 31.036,926
60,401 3.648,281
-10,258
105,227
42,284 1.787,937
-155,356 24.135,487
16,121
259,887
4.028,810
MSE
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget Champ
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
1 5.829
2 6.220
5.537,550
34,122
0,000
3 5.576
6.250,711
-33,736 67,858
4 4.647
5.610,472
-48,174 14,438
5 5.238
4.604,380
31,681 79,855
6 5.290
5.175,719
5,714 25,967
7 6.836
5.264,543
78,573 72,859
8 8.036
6.886,972
57,451 21,122
9 5.998
8.217,252 -110,963 168,414
10 6.530
6.136,837
19,658 130,621
11 6.599
6.575,567
1,172 18,486
12 6.626
6.665,279
-1,964
3,136
13 5.901
6.691,683
-39,534 37,570
14 7.151
5.929,138
61,093 100,627
15 6.866
7.194,588
-16,429 77,522
16 7.683
6.955,894
36,355 52,784
17 5.961
7.789,185
-91,409 127,764
18 6.390
6.021,271
18,436 109,845
19 6.974
6.375,455
29,927 11,491
20 6.761
7.004,826
-12,191 42,118
21 9.235
6.810,780
121,211 133,402
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget Champ (Lanjutan)
Periode
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Xt
9.383
9.439
9.199
5.901
7.151
6.866
7.683
4.575
4.799
Ft
9.381,679
9.650,950
9.697,479
9.424,450
5.942,971
7.071,160
6.837,329
7.682,126
4.476,589
Jumlah
Et
0,066
-10,598
-24,924
-176,173
60,401
-10,258
42,284
-155,356
16,121
MR
121,145
10,664
14,326
151,249
236,574
70,659
52,542
197,640
171,477
2.322,155
Moving Range Chart
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0,000
-50,000
-100,000
-150,000
-200,000
-250,000
E
UCL
1/3UCL
2/3UCL
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
LCL
1/3LCL
2/3LCL
GambarMoving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk Nugget Champ
4.
Peramalan Produk Nugget Coin Champ
Tabel Data Permintaan Nugget Coin Champ 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015
Periode
Jumlah
23 Juni - 29 Juni 2014
4.353
30 Juni - 06 Juli 2014
4.180
07 Juli - 13 Juli 2014
3.220
14 Juli - 20 Juli 2014
3.001
21 Juli - 27 Juli 2014
3.588
Tabel Data Permintaan Nugget Coin Champ 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015
(Lanjutan)
Periode
28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014
04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014
11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014
18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014
25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014
01 September - 07 September 2014
08 September - 14 September 2014
15 September - 21 September 2014
22 September - 28 September 2014
29 September - 05 Oktober 2014
06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014
13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014
20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014
27 Oktober - 02 November 2014
03 November - 09 November 2014
10 November - 16 November 2014
17 November - 23 November 2014
24 November - 30 November 2014
01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014
08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014
15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014
22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014
29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015
05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015
12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015
Total
Jumlah
3.188
4.188
3.012
3.011
3.590
3.610
3.427
4.502
4.560
4.294
4.186
3.196
3.082
3.398
3.766
3.420
3.780
3.940
4.138
4.502
4.560
4.294
4.186
2.799
2.967
111.938
Penjualan Nugget Coin Champ
5.000
4.500
4.000
Jumlah
3.500
3.000
2.500
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
GambarDiagram Pencar Penjualan Nugget Coin Champ
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
1
4.353
4.353
4.353
2
4.180
4.283,800
4.325,320
4.242,280
-27,680
3
3.220
3.858,280
4.138,504
3.578,056
-186,816
4.214,600
-994,600
989.229,160
4
3.001
3.515,368
3.889,250
3.141,486
-249,255
3.391,240
-390,240
152.287,258
5
3.588
3.544,421
3.751,318
3.337,524
-137,931
2.892,231
695,769
484.094,501
6
3.188
3.401,853
3.611,532
3.192,174
-139,786
3.199,593
-11,593
134,398
7
4.188
3.716,312
3.653,444
3.779,180
41,912
3.052,388
1.135,612
1.289.614,615
8
3.012
3.434,587
3.565,901
3.303,273
-87,543
3.821,092
-809,092
654.629,864
9
3.011
3.265,152
3.445,601
3.084,703
-120,299
3.215,730
-204,730
41.914,373
10
3.590
3.395,091
3.425,397
3.364,785
-20,204
2.964,404
625,596
391.370,355
11
3.610
3.481,055
3.447,660
3.514,450
22,263
3.344,581
265,419
70.447,246
12
3.427
3.459,433
3.452,369
3.466,497
4,709
3.536,713
-109,713
12.036,942
13
4.502
3.876,460
3.622,005
4.130,915
169,637
3.471,206
1.030,794
1.062.536,270
14
4.560
4.149,876
3.833,153
4.466,599
211,149
4.300,552
259,448
67.313,265
15
4.294
4.207,526
3.982,902
4.432,150
149,749
4.677,748
-383,748
147.262,528
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
16
4.186
4.198,916
4.069,308
4.328,524
86,405
4.581,899
-395,899
156.736,018
17
3.196
3.797,750
3.960,685
3.634,815
-108,623
4.414,929
-1.218,929
1.485.787,907
18
3.082
3.511,450
3.780,991
3.241,909
-179,694
3.526,192
-444,192
197.306,533
19
3.398
3.466,070
3.655,023
3.277,117
-125,969
3.062,215
335,785
112.751,566
20
3.766
3.586,042
3.627,431
3.544,653
-27,593
3.151,148
614,852
378.042,982
21
3.420
3.519,625
3.584,309
3.454,941
-43,123
3.517,060
-97,060
9.420,644
22
3.780
3.623,775
3.600,095
3.647,455
15,787
3.411,818
368,182
135.557,985
23
3.940
3.750,265
3.660,163
3.840,367
60,068
3.663,242
276,758
76.594,991
24
4.138
3.905,359
3.758,241
4.052,477
98,079
3.900,435
237,565
56.437,129
25
4.502
4.144,015
3.912,551
4.375,479
154,309
4.150,556
351,444
123.512,885
26
4.560
4.310,409
4.071,694
4.549,124
159,143
4.529,788
30,212
912,765
27
4.294
4.303,845
4.164,554
4.443,136
92,861
4.708,267
-414,267
171.617,147
28
4.186
4.256,707
4.201,415
4.311,999
36,861
4.535,997
-349,997
122.497,900
29
2.799
3.673,624
3.990,299
3.356,949
-211,117
4.348,860
-1.549,860
2.402.066,020
30
2.967
3.390,974
3.750,569
3.031,379
-239,730
3.145,832
-178,832
31.980,884
360.803,138
MSE
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt
Periode
Xt
St
1
4.353
2
4.180
4.177,77
4,242
4.135,350
2,232
4,982
3
3.220
3.268,101
-87,149
4.182,010
-48,101
2.313,706
4
3.001
3.009,998
-104,244
3.180,952
-8,998
80,964
5
3.588
3.553,888
-39,431
2.905,754
34,112
1.163,629
6
3.188
3.204,323
-70,444
3.514,457
-16,323
266,440
7
4.188
4.135,294
29,698
3.133,879
52,706
2.777,922
8
3.012
3.069,650
-79,836
4.164,992
-57,650
3.323,523
9
3.011
3.009,941
-77,823
2.989,814
1,059
1,121
10
3.590
3.557,106
-15,324
2.932,118
32,894
1.082,015
11
3.610
3.606,589
-8,843
3.541,782
3,411
11,635
12
3.427
3.435,537
-25,064
3.597,746
-8,537
72,880
13
4.502
4.447,424
78,631
3.410,473
54,576
2.978,540
14
4.560
4.558,303
81,856
4.526,055
1,697
2,880
15
4.294
4.311,308
48,971
4.640,159
-17,308
299,567
16
4.186
4.194,714
32,415
4.360,279
-8,714
75,934
4.135,4
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
0
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
St
17
3.196
3.247,556
Bt
-65,542
Ft
4.227,129
Et
Et^2
-51,556
2.658,021
18
3.082
3.087,001
-75,043
3.182,014
-5,001
25,010
19
3.398
3.378,698
-38,369
3.011,958
19,302
372,567
20
3.766
3.744,716
2,070
3.340,329
21,284
453,009
21
3.420
3.436,339
-28,975
3.746,786
-16,339
266,963
22
3.780
3.761,368
6,425
3.407,364
18,632
347,151
23
3.940
3.931,390
22,785
3.767,793
8,610
74,132
24
4.138
4.128,809
40,248
3.954,175
9,191
84,474
25
4.502
4.485,353
71,878
4.169,057
16,647
277,123
26
4.560
4.559,862
72,141
4.557,231
0,138
0,019
27
4.294
4.310,900
40,031
4.632,003
-16,900
285,610
28
4.186
4.194,247
24,363
4.350,931
-8,247
68,013
29
2.799
2.869,981
-110,500
4.218,610
-70,981
5.038,302
30
2.967
2.956,624
-90,786
2.759,481
10,376
107,661
817,126
MSE
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
1
4.353
2
4.180 4.135,350
2,232
0,000
3
3.220 4.182,010 -48,101
50,333
4
3.001 3.180,952
-8,998
39,103
5
3.588 2.905,754
34,112
43,110
6
3.188 3.514,457 -16,323
50,435
7
4.188 3.133,879
52,706
69,029
8
3.012 4.164,992 -57,650 110,356
9
3.011 2.989,814
1,059
58,709
10
3.590 2.932,118
32,894
31,835
11
3.610 3.541,782
3,411
29,483
12
3.427 3.597,746
-8,537
11,948
13
4.502 3.410,473
54,576
63,113
14
4.560 4.526,055
1,697
52,879
15
4.294 4.640,159 -17,308
19,005
16
4.186 4.360,279
-8,714
8,594
17
3.196 4.227,129 -51,556
42,842
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ
Periode
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Xt
3.082
3.398
3.766
3.420
3.780
3.940
4.138
4.502
4.560
4.294
4.186
2.799
2.967
Ft
3.182,014
3.011,958
3.340,329
3.746,786
3.407,364
3.767,793
3.954,175
4.169,057
4.557,231
4.632,003
4.350,931
4.218,610
2.759,481
Jumlah
Et
-5,001
19,302
21,284
-16,339
18,632
8,610
9,191
16,647
0,138
-16,900
-8,247
-70,981
10,376
MR
46,555
24,303
1,982
37,623
34,971
10,022
0,581
7,456
16,509
17,038
8,653
62,734
81,357
1.030,558
Moving Range Chart
150,000
E
100,000
UCL
50,000
1/3UCL
0,000
2/3UCL
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
-50,000
LCL
1/3LCL
-100,000
2/3LCL
-150,000
Gambar Moving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk Nugget Coin
Champ
5.
Peramalan Produk Nugget Champ ABC
Tabel Data Permintaan Nugget Champ ABC 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015
Periode
23 Juni - 29 Juni 2014
30 Juni - 06 Juli 2014
07 Juli - 13 Juli 2014
14 Juli - 20 Juli 2014
21 Juli - 27 Juli 2014
28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014
04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014
11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014
18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014
25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014
01 September - 07 September 2014
08 September - 14 September 2014
15 September - 21 September 2014
22 September - 28 September 2014
29 September - 05 Oktober 2014
06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014
13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014
20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014
27 Oktober - 02 November 2014
03 November - 09 November 2014
10 November - 16 November 2014
17 November - 23 November 2014
24 November - 30 November 2014
01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014
08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014
15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014
22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014
29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015
05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015
12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015
Total
Jumlah
3.129
3.419
4.178
4.114
4.027
3.998
4.022
3.946
3.482
3.684
3.886
3.680
3.617
3.632
3.801
3.417
3.182
3.390
3.222
3.254
3.708
3.773
3.387
3.399
3.617
3.632
3.801
3.417
3.215
3.399
108.428
Penjualan Nugget Champ ABC
4.400
4.200
4.000
3.800
Jumlah
3.600
3.400
3.200
3.000
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
GambarDiagram Pencar Penjualan Nugget Champ ABC
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ ABC
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
1
3.129
3.129
3.129
2
3.419
3.274,000
3.201,500
3.346,500
72,500
3
4.178
3.726,000
3.463,750
3.988,250
262,250
Ft+m
3.419,000
et
759,000
et^2
576.081,000
4
4.114
3.920,000
3.691,875
4.148,125
228,125
4.250,500
-136,500
18.632,250
5
4.027
3.973,500
3.832,688
4.114,312
140,812
4.376,250
-349,250
121.975,563
6
3.998
3.985,750
3.909,219
4.062,281
76,531
4.255,124
-257,124
66.112,751
7
4.022
4.003,875
3.956,547
4.051,203
47,328
4.138,812
-116,812
13.645,043
8
3.946
3.974,938
3.965,743
3.984,133
9,195
4.098,531
-152,531
23.265,706
9
3.482
3.728,469
3.847,106
3.609,832
-118,637
3.993,328
-511,328
261.456,324
10
3.684
3.706,235
3.776,671
3.635,799
-70,436
3.491,195
192,805
37.173,768
11
3.886
3.796,118
3.786,395
3.805,841
9,723
3.565,363
320,637
102.808,086
12
3.680
3.738,059
3.762,227
3.713,891
-24,168
3.815,564
-135,564
18.377,598
13
3.617
3.677,530
3.719,879
3.635,181
-42,349
3.689,723
-72,723
5.288,635
14
3.632
3.654,765
3.687,322
3.622,208
-32,557
3.592,832
39,168
1.534,132
15
3.801
3.727,883
3.707,603
3.748,163
20,280
3.589,651
211,349
44.668,400
16
3.417
3.572,442
3.640,023
3.504,861
-67,581
3.768,443
-351,443
123.512,182
17
3.182
3.377,221
3.508,622
3.245,820
-131,401
3.437,280
-255,280
65.167,878
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error PeramalanNugget Champ ABC
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
18
3.390
3.383,611
3.446,117
3.321,105
-62,506
3.114,419
275,581
75.944,888
19
3.222
3.302,806
3.374,462
3.231,150
-71,656
3.258,599
-36,599
1.339,487
20
3.254
3.278,403
3.326,433
3.230,373
-48,030
3.159,494
94,506
8.931,384
21
3.708
3.493,202
3.409,818
3.576,586
83,384
3.182,343
525,657
276.315,282
22
3.773
3.633,101
3.521,460
3.744,742
111,641
3.659,970
113,030
12.775,781
23
3.387
3.510,051
3.515,756
3.504,346
-5,705
3.856,383
-469,383
220.320,401
24
3.399
3.454,526
3.485,141
3.423,911
-30,615
3.498,641
-99,641
9.928,329
25
3.617
3.535,763
3.510,452
3.561,074
25,311
3.393,296
223,704
50.043,480
26
3.632
3.583,882
3.547,167
3.620,597
36,715
3.586,385
45,615
2.080,728
27
3.801
3.692,441
3.619,804
3.765,078
72,637
3.657,312
143,688
20.646,241
28
3.417
3.554,721
3.587,263
3.522,179
-32,542
3.837,715
-420,715
177.001,111
29
3.215
3.384,861
3.486,062
3.283,660
-101,201
3.489,637
-274,637
75.425,482
30
3.399
3.391,931
3.438,997
3.344,865
-47,066
3.182,459
216,541
46.890,005
81.911,397
MSE
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ
ABCdengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt
Periode
Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
1
3.129
2.972,6
0
2
3.419 3.396,68 42,413 2.972,550 22,322
498,272
3
4.178 4.141,055 112,609 3.439,091 36,945 1.364,933
4
4.114 4.120,983 99,341 4.253,664
-6,983
48,762
5
4.027 4.036,666 80,975 4.220,324
-9,666
93,432
6
3.998 4.003,982 69,609 4.117,641
-5,982
35,784
7
4.022 4.024,580 64,708 4.073,591
-2,580
6,656
8
3.946 3.953,164 51,096 4.089,288
-7,164
51,323
9
3.482 3.508,113
1,481 4.004,260 -26,113
681,889
10
3.684 3.675,280 18,050 3.509,594
8,720
76,038
11
3.886 3.876,367 36,354 3.693,330
9,633
92,795
12
3.680 3.691,636 14,246 3.912,721 -11,636
135,396
13
3.617 3.621,444
5,802 3.705,882
-4,444
19,749
14
3.632 3.631,762
6,254 3.627,246
0,238
0,057
15
3.801 3.792,851 21,738 3.638,016
8,149
66,406
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ
ABCdengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt (Lanjutan)
Periode
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Xt
3.417
3.182
3.390
3.222
3.254
3.708
3.773
3.387
3.399
3.617
3.632
3.801
3.417
3.215
3.399
St
3.436,879
3.193,942
3.378,261
3.228,992
3.251,264
3.683,938
3.769,608
3.407,513
3.398,860
3.605,540
3.631,213
3.793,122
3.437,165
3.225,552
3.388,769
Bt
-16,033
-38,723
-16,419
-29,704
-24,506
21,212
27,658
-11,317
-11,051
10,722
12,217
27,186
-11,128
-31,177
-11,738
Ft
3.814,589
3.420,846
3.155,219
3.361,842
3.199,288
3.226,758
3.705,150
3.797,266
3.396,196
3.387,809
3.616,262
3.643,430
3.820,308
3.426,037
3.194,375
Et
-19,879
-11,942
11,739
-6,992
2,736
24,062
3,392
-20,513
0,140
11,460
0,787
7,878
-20,165
-10,552
10,231
Et^2
395,175
142,611
137,804
48,888
7,486
578,980
11,506
420,783
0,020
131,332
0,619
62,063
406,627
111,345
104,673
191,047
MSE
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget ChampABC
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
1
3.129
2
3.419 2.972,550
22,322
0,000
3
4.178 3.439,091
36,945
14,623
4
4.114 4.253,664
-6,983
43,928
5
4.027 4.220,324
-9,666
2,683
6
3.998 4.117,641
-5,982
3,684
7
4.022 4.073,591
-2,580
3,402
8
3.946 4.089,288
-7,164
4,584
9
3.482 4.004,260 -26,113
18,949
10
3.684 3.509,594
8,720
34,833
11
3.886 3.693,330
9,633
0,913
12
3.680 3.912,721 -11,636
21,269
13
3.617 3.705,882
-4,444
7,192
14
3.632 3.627,246
0,238
4,682
15
3.801 3.638,016
8,149
7,911
16
3.417 3.814,589 -19,879
28,028
17
3.182 3.420,846 -11,942
7,937
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget ChampABC (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
3.390
3.222
3.254
3.708
3.773
3.387
3.399
3.617
3.632
3.801
3.417
3.215
3.399
3.155,219
3.361,842
3.199,288
3.226,758
3.705,150
3.797,266
3.396,196
3.387,809
3.616,262
3.643,430
3.820,308
3.426,037
3.194,375
Jumlah
11,739
-6,992
2,736
24,062
3,392
-20,513
0,140
11,460
0,787
7,878
-20,165
-10,552
10,231
23,681
18,731
9,728
21,326
20,670
23,905
20,653
11,320
10,673
7,091
28,043
9,613
20,783
430,835
Moving Range Chart
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0,000
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
-40,000
-50,000
E
UCL
1/3UCL
2/3UCL
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
LCL
1/3LCL
2/3LCL
Gambar Moving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk Nugget
ChampABC
6.
Peramalan Produk Stick Champ
Tabel Data Permintaan Stick Champ 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015
(Lanjutan)
Periode
Jumlah
23 Juni - 29 Juni 2014
30 Juni - 06 Juli 2014
07 Juli - 13 Juli 2014
14 Juli - 20 Juli 2014
21 Juli - 27 Juli 2014
28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014
04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014
11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014
18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014
25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014
01 September - 07 September 2014
08 September - 14 September 2014
15 September - 21 September 2014
22 September - 28 September 2014
29 September - 05 Oktober 2014
06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014
13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014
20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014
27 Oktober - 02 November 2014
03 November - 09 November 2014
10 November - 16 November 2014
17 November - 23 November 2014
24 November - 30 November 2014
01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014
08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014
15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014
22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014
29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015
05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015
12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015
Total
3.418
3.535
3.816
4.077
4.376
4.096
3.416
3.396
3.731
4.015
4.934
3.838
3.800
3.424
3.680
3.848
5.198
6.338
6.174
5.997
4.775
4.373
4.575
3.875
3.800
3.848
3.424
3.680
3.709
3.797
124.963
Penjualan Stick Champ
6.500
6.000
5.500
5.000
4.500
Jumlah
4.000
3.500
3.000
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Gambar Diagram Pencar Penjualan Stick Champ
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stick Champdengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
[PE]
1
3.418
3.418
3.418
2
3.535
3.476,500
3.447,250
3.505,750
29,250
3
3.816
3.646,250
3.546,750
3.745,750
99,500
3.535,000
281,000
78.961,000
7,363732
4
4.077
3.861,625
3.704,188
4.019,062
157,437
3.845,250
231,750
53.708,063
5,684327
5
4.376
4.118,813
3.911,501
4.326,125
207,312
4.176,499
199,501
39.800,649
4,558981
6
4.096
4.107,407
4.009,454
4.205,360
97,953
4.533,437
-437,437
191.351,129
10,67961
7
3.416
3.761,704
3.885,579
3.637,829
-123,875
4.303,313
-887,313
787.324,360
25,9752
8
3.396
3.578,852
3.732,216
3.425,488
-153,364
3.513,954
-117,954
13.913,146
3,473322
9
3.731
3.654,926
3.693,571
3.616,281
-38,645
3.272,124
458,876
210.567,183
12,29901
10
4.015
3.834,963
3.764,267
3.905,659
70,696
3.577,636
437,364
191.287,268
10,89325
11
4.934
4.384,482
4.074,375
4.694,589
310,107
3.976,355
957,645
917.083,946
19,4091
12
3.838
4.111,241
4.092,808
4.129,674
18,433
5.004,696
-1.166,696
1.361.179,556
30,39854
13
3.800
3.955,621
4.024,215
3.887,027
-68,594
4.148,107
-348,107
121.178,483
9,160711
14
3.424
3.689,811
3.857,013
3.522,609
-167,202
3.818,433
-394,433
155.577,391
11,51966
15
3.680
3.684,906
3.770,960
3.598,852
-86,054
3.355,407
324,593
105.360,616
8,820462
16
3.848
3.766,453
3.768,707
3.764,199
-2,254
3.512,798
335,202
112.360,381
8,711071
17
5.198
4.482,227
4.125,467
4.838,987
356,760
3.761,945
1.436,055
2.062.253,963
27,62707
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stick Champdengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
18
6.338
5.410,114
4.767,791
6.052,437
19
6.174
5.792,057
5.279,924
20
5.997
5.894,529
21
4.775
22
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
642,323
5.195,747
1.142,253
1.304.741,916
6.304,190
512,133
6.694,760
-520,760
271.190,978
5.587,227
6.201,831
307,302
6.816,323
-819,323
671.290,178
5.334,765
5.460,996
5.208,534
-126,231
6.509,133
-1.734,133
3.007.217,262
4.373
4.853,883
5.157,440
4.550,326
-303,557
5.082,303
-709,303
503.110,746
23
4.575
4.714,442
4.935,941
4.492,943
-221,499
4.246,769
328,231
107.735,589
24
3.875
4.294,721
4.615,331
3.974,111
-320,610
4.271,444
-396,444
157.167,845
25
3.800
4.047,361
4.331,346
3.763,376
-283,985
3.653,501
146,499
21.461,957
26
3.848
3.947,681
4.139,514
3.755,848
-191,833
3.479,391
368,609
135.872,595
27
3.424
3.685,841
3.912,678
3.459,004
-226,837
3.564,015
-140,015
19.604,200
28
3.680
3.682,921
3.797,800
3.568,042
-114,879
3.232,167
447,833
200.554,396
29
3.709
3.695,961
3.746,881
3.645,041
-50,920
3.453,163
255,837
65.452,571
30
3.797
3.746,481
3.746,681
3.746,281
-0,200
3.594,121
202,879
41.159,889
430.282,242
MSE
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stick Champ dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt
Periode
Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
1
3.418
3.247,1
0
2
3.535 3.520,61 27,351 3.247,100 14,395
207,216
3
3.816 3.802,598 52,815 3.547,956 13,402
179,614
4
4.077 4.065,921 73,866 3.855,413 11,079
122,744
5
4.376 4.364,189 96,306 4.139,787 11,811
139,500
6
4.096 4.114,225 61,679 4.460,495 -18,225 332,151
7
3.416 3.453,995 -10,512 4.175,904 -37,995 1.443,620
8
3.396 3.398,374 -15,023 3.443,483 -2,374
5,636
9
3.731 3.713,618 18,004 3.383,351 17,382
302,134
10
4.015 4.000,831 44,925 3.731,622 14,169
200,761
11
4.934 4.889,588 129,308 4.045,756 44,412 1.972,426
12
3.838 3.897,045 17,123 5.018,896 -59,045 3.486,312
13
3.800 3.805,708 6,277 3.914,168 -5,708
32,581
14
3.424 3.443,399 -30,582 3.811,985 -19,399 376,321
15
3.680 3.666,641 -5,200 3.412,817 13,359
178,463
16
3.848 3.838,672 12,523 3.661,441
9,328
87,012
17
5.198 5.130,660 140,470 3.851,195 67,340 4.534,676
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stick Champ dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
18
6.338 6.284,657 241,823 5.271,130 53,343 2.845,476
19
6.174 6.191,624 208,337 6.526,480 -17,624 310,605
20
5.997 6.017,148 170,056 6.399,961 -20,148 405,942
21
4.775 4.845,610 35,897 6.187,204 -70,610 4.985,772
22
4.373 4.398,425 -12,411 4.881,507 -25,425 646,431
23
4.575 4.565,551 5,543 4.386,014
9,449
89,284
24
3.875 3.909,805 -60,586 4.571,094 -34,805 1.211,388
25
3.800 3.802,461 -65,262 3.849,219 -2,461
6,057
26
3.848 3.842,460 -54,736 3.737,199
5,540
30,692
27
3.424 3.442,186 -89,290 3.787,724 -18,186 330,731
28
3.680 3.663,645 -58,215 3.352,896 16,355
267,486
29
3.709 3.703,822 -48,376 3.605,430
5,178
26,812
30
3.797 3.789,922 -34,928 3.655,446
7,078
50,098
826,931
MSE
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan StickChamp
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
1
3.418
2
3.535 3.247,100
14,395
0,000
3
3.816 3.547,956
13,402
0,993
4
4.077 3.855,413
11,079
2,323
5
4.376 4.139,787
11,811
0,732
6
4.096 4.460,495 -18,225
30,036
7
3.416 4.175,904 -37,995
19,770
8
3.396 3.443,483
-2,374
35,621
9
3.731 3.383,351
17,382
19,756
10
4.015 3.731,622
14,169
3,213
11
4.934 4.045,756
44,412
30,243
12
3.838 5.018,896 -59,045 103,457
13
3.800 3.914,168
-5,708
53,337
14
3.424 3.811,985 -19,399
13,691
15
3.680 3.412,817
13,359
32,758
16
3.848 3.661,441
9,328
4,031
17
5.198 3.851,195
67,340
58,012
18
6.338 5.271,130
53,343
13,997
19
6.174 6.526,480 -17,624
70,967
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan StickChamp (Lanjutan)
Periode
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Xt
5.997
4.775
4.373
4.575
3.875
3.800
3.848
3.424
3.680
3.709
3.797
Ft
6.399,961
6.187,204
4.881,507
4.386,014
4.571,094
3.849,219
3.737,199
3.787,724
3.352,896
3.605,430
3.655,446
Jumlah
Et
-20,148
-70,610
-25,425
9,449
-34,805
-2,461
5,540
-18,186
16,355
5,178
7,078
MR
2,524
50,462
45,185
34,874
44,254
32,344
8,001
23,726
34,541
11,177
1,900
781,925
Moving Range Chart
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0,000
-20,000
E
UCL
1/3UCL
2/3UCL
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
-40,000
-60,000
-80,000
-100,000
LCL
1/3LCL
2/3LCL
Gambar Moving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk StickChamp
7.
Peramalan Produk StickOkey
Tabel Data Permintaan Stick Okey 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015
Periode
Jumlah
23 Juni - 29 Juni 2014
16.712
30 Juni - 06 Juli 2014
16.008
07 Juli - 13 Juli 2014
17.418
14 Juli - 20 Juli 2014
16.486
21 Juli - 27 Juli 2014
17.085
28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014
16.088
04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014
13.289
11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014
14.497
18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014
12.218
25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014
12.562
01 September - 07 September 2014
12.724
08 September - 14 September 2014
13.783
15 September - 21 September 2014
16.038
22 September - 28 September 2014
14.930
29 September - 05 Oktober 2014
14.786
06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014
15.390
13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014
12.339
20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014
12.399
27 Oktober - 02 November 2014
12.599
03 November - 09 November 2014
12.593
10 November - 16 November 2014
12.514
17 November - 23 November 2014
12.600
24 November - 30 November 2014
12.634
01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014
12.706
08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014
16.038
15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014
14.930
22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014
14.786
29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015
15.390
05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015
18.328
12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015
18.200
Total
438.070
Penjualan Stick Okey
18.000
17.000
16.000
15.000
Jumlah
14.000
13.000
12.000
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
GambarDiagram Pencar Penjualan Stick Okey
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan StickOkey dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
1
at
bt
16.712
16.712
16.712
2
16.008
16.430,400
3
17.418
4
16.486
Ft+m
et
et^2
[PE]
16.599,360
16.261,440
-112,640
16.825,440
16.689,792
16.961,088
90,432
16.148,800
1.269,200
1.610.868,640
7,286715
16.689,664
16.689,741
16.689,587
-0,051
17.051,520
-565,520
319.812,870
3,430305
5
17.085
16.847,798
16.752,964
16.942,632
63,223
16.689,536
395,464
156.391,775
2,314685
6
16.088
16.543,879
16.669,330
16.418,428
-83,634
17.005,855
-917,855
842.457,801
5,705215
7
13.289
15.241,927
16.098,369
14.385,485
-570,961
16.334,794
-3.045,794
9.276.861,090
22,91966
8
14.497
14.943,956
15.636,604
14.251,308
-461,765
13.814,524
682,476
465.773,491
4,707705
9
12.218
13.853,574
14.923,392
12.783,756
-713,212
13.789,543
-1.571,543
2.469.747,401
12,86252
10
12.562
13.336,944
14.288,813
12.385,075
-634,579
12.070,544
491,456
241.529,000
3,912243
11
12.724
13.091,766
13.809,994
12.373,538
-478,819
11.750,496
973,504
947.710,038
7,650927
12
13.783
13.368,260
13.633,300
13.103,220
-176,693
11.894,719
1.888,281
3.565.605,135
13,70007
13
16.038
14.436,156
13.954,442
14.917,870
321,143
12.926,527
3.111,473
9.681.264,230
19,40063
14
14.930
14.633,694
14.226,143
15.041,245
271,701
15.239,013
-309,013
95.489,034
2,069745
15
14.786
14.694,616
14.413,532
14.975,700
187,389
15.312,946
-526,946
277.672,087
3,563817
16
15.390
14.972,770
14.637,227
15.308,313
223,695
15.163,089
226,911
51.488,602
1,474405
17
12.339
13.919,262
14.350,041
13.488,483
-287,186
15.532,008
-3.193,008
10.195.300,088
25,87736
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan StickOkey dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
18
12.399
13.311,157
13.934,487
12.687,827
-415,553
13.201,297
-802,297
643.680,476
19
12.599
13.026,294
13.571,210
12.481,378
-363,277
12.272,274
326,726
106.749,879
20
12.593
12.852,976
13.283,916
12.422,036
-287,293
12.118,101
474,899
225.529,060
21
12.514
12.717,386
13.057,304
12.377,468
-226,612
12.134,743
379,257
143.835,872
22
12.600
12.670,432
12.902,555
12.438,309
-154,749
12.150,856
449,144
201.730,333
23
12.634
12.655,859
12.803,877
12.507,841
-98,679
12.283,560
350,440
122.808,194
24
12.706
12.675,915
12.752,692
12.599,138
-51,185
12.409,162
296,838
88.112,798
25
16.038
14.020,749
13.259,915
14.781,583
507,223
12.547,953
3.490,047
12.180.428,062
26
14.930
14.384,449
13.709,729
15.059,169
449,813
15.288,806
-358,806
128.741,746
27
14.786
14.545,069
14.043,865
15.046,273
334,136
15.508,982
-722,982
522.702,972
28
15.390
14.883,041
14.379,535
15.386,547
335,671
15.380,409
9,591
91,987
29
18.328
16.261,025
15.132,131
17.389,919
752,596
15.722,218
2.605,782
6.790.099,832
30
18.200
17.036,615
15.893,925
18.179,305
761,793
18.142,515
57,485
3.304,525
2.045.192,901
MSE
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stick Okey dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt
Periode
Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
1
16.712
15.876,4
0
2
16.008
16.001,42
12,502 15.876,400
6,580
43,296
3
17.418 17.347,796 145,889 16.013,922
70,204 4.928,602
4
16.486 16.536,384
50,159 17.493,685
-50,384 2.538,547
5
17.085 17.060,077
97,512 16.586,543
24,923
621,156
6
16.088 16.141,479
-4,099 17.157,589
-53,479 2.860,003
7
13.289 13.431,419 -274,695 16.137,380 -142,419 20.283,172
8
14.497 14.429,986 -147,369 13.156,724
67,014 4.490,876
9
12.218 12.321,231 -343,508 14.282,617 -103,231 10.656,639
10
12.562 12.532,786 -288,002 11.977,723
29,214
853,458
11
12.724 12.700,039 -242,477 12.244,784
23,961
574,130
12
13.783 13.716,728 -116,560 12.
Food Division
1.
Peramalan Produk Stikie Fiesta
Tabel Data Permintaan Stikie Fiesta 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015
Periode
Jumlah
23 Juni - 29 Juni 2014
3.930
30 Juni - 06 Juli 2014
3.952
07 Juli - 13 Juli 2014
4.819
14 Juli - 20 Juli 2014
3.903
21 Juli - 27 Juli 2014
4.818
28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014
4.490
04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014
4.117
11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014
4.202
18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014
4.173
25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014
4.342
01 September - 07 September 2014
4.509
08 September - 14 September 2014
4.382
15 September - 21 September 2014
3.941
22 September - 28 September 2014
4.145
29 September - 05 Oktober 2014
4.343
06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014
4.141
13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014
5.074
20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014
5.135
27 Oktober - 02 November 2014
4.792
03 November - 09 November 2014
4.734
10 November - 16 November 2014
4.792
17 November - 23 November 2014
4.558
24 November - 30 November 2014
4.720
01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014
4.936
08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014
3.941
15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014
4.145
22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014
4.343
29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015
4.141
05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015
3.891
12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015
4.105
Total
131.514
Penjualan Stikie Fiesta
6.000
5.500
5.000
4.500
Jumlah
4.000
3.500
3.000
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Gambar Diagram Pencar Penjualan Stikie Fiesta
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stikie Fiesta dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
1
3.930
3.930
3.930
2
3.952
3.934,400
3.930,880
3.937,920
0,880
3
4.819
4.111,320
3.966,968
4.255,672
36,088
3.938,800
880,200
774.752,040
4
3.903
4.069,656
3.987,506
4.151,806
20,538
4.291,760
-388,760
151.134,338
5
4.818
4.219,325
4.033,870
4.404,780
46,364
4.172,344
645,656
416.871,670
6
4.490
4.273,460
4.081,788
4.465,132
47,918
4.451,144
38,856
1.509,789
7
4.117
4.242,168
4.113,864
4.370,472
32,076
4.513,050
-396,050
156.855,603
8
4.202
4.234,134
4.137,918
4.330,350
24,054
4.402,548
-200,548
40.219,500
9
4.173
4.221,907
4.154,716
4.289,098
16,798
4.354,404
-181,404
32.907,411
10
4.342
4.245,926
4.172,958
4.318,894
18,242
4.305,896
36,104
1.303,499
11
4.509
4.298,541
4.198,075
4.399,007
25,117
4.337,136
171,864
29.537,234
12
4.382
4.315,233
4.221,507
4.408,959
23,432
4.424,124
-42,124
1.774,431
13
3.941
4.240,386
4.225,283
4.255,489
3,776
4.432,391
-491,391
241.465,115
14
4.145
4.221,309
4.224,488
4.218,130
-0,795
4.259,265
-114,265
13.056,490
15
4.343
4.245,647
4.228,720
4.262,574
4,232
4.217,335
125,665
15.791,692
16
4.141
4.224,718
4.227,920
4.221,516
-0,801
4.266,806
-125,806
15.827,150
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stikie Fiesta dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
17
5.074
4.394,574
4.261,251
4.527,897
33,331
4.220,715
853,285
728.095,291
18
5.135
4.542,659
4.317,533
4.767,785
56,281
4.561,228
573,772
329.214,308
19
4.792
4.592,527
4.372,532
4.812,522
54,999
4.824,066
-32,066
1.028,228
20
4.734
4.620,822
4.422,190
4.819,454
49,658
4.867,521
-133,521
17.827,857
21
4.792
4.655,058
4.468,764
4.841,352
46,574
4.869,112
-77,112
5.946,261
22
4.558
4.635,646
4.502,140
4.769,152
33,376
4.887,926
-329,926
108.851,165
23
4.720
4.652,517
4.532,215
4.772,819
30,075
4.802,528
-82,528
6.810,871
24
4.936
4.709,214
4.567,615
4.850,813
35,400
4.802,894
133,106
17.717,207
25
3.941
4.555,571
4.565,206
4.545,936
-2,409
4.886,213
-945,213
893.427,615
26
4.145
4.473,457
4.546,856
4.400,058
-18,350
4.543,527
-398,527
158.823,770
27
4.343
4.447,366
4.526,958
4.367,774
-19,898
4.381,708
-38,708
1.498,309
28
4.141
4.386,093
4.498,785
4.273,401
-28,173
4.347,876
-206,876
42.797,679
29
3.891
4.287,074
4.456,443
4.117,705
-42,342
4.245,228
-354,228
125.477,476
30
4.105
4.250,659
4.415,286
4.086,032
-41,157
4.075,363
29,637
878,352
144.380,012
MSE
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Stikie Fiesta
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt
Periode
Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
1
3.930
3.733,5
0
2
3.952
3.941,08 20,758
3.733,500 10,925
119,356
3
4.819 4.776,142 102,189
3.961,833 42,858 1.836,808
4
3.903 3.951,767
9,533
4.878,331 -48,767 2.378,220
5
4.818 4.775,165 90,920
3.961,300 42,835 1.834,837
6
4.490 4.508,804 55,192
4.866,085 -18,804
353,590
7
4.117 4.139,350 12,727
4.563,996 -22,350
499,523
8
4.202 4.199,504 17,470
4.152,077
2,496
6,230
9
4.173 4.175,199 13,293
4.216,974 -2,199
4,836
10
4.342 4.334,325 27,876
4.188,492
7,675
58,906
11
4.509 4.501,660 41,822
4.362,201
7,340
53,876
12
4.382 4.390,074 26,481
4.543,482 -8,074
65,189
13
3.941 3.964,778 -18,697
4.416,555 -23,778
565,393
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Stikie Fiesta
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
14
4.145 4.135,054
0,200
3.946,081
9,946
98,923
15
4.343 4.332,613 19,936
4.135,254 10,387
107,890
16
4.141 4.151,577
-0,161
4.352,549 -10,577
111,873
17
5.074 5.027,871 87,485
4.151,416 46,129 2.127,885
18
5.135 5.134,018 89,351
5.115,356
0,982
0,964
19
4.792 4.813,568 48,371
5.223,369 -21,568
465,179
20
4.734 4.740,397 36,217
4.861,939 -6,397
40,922
21
4.792 4.791,231 37,679
4.776,614
0,769
0,591
22
4.558 4.571,546 11,943
4.828,910 -13,546
183,494
23
4.720 4.713,174 24,912
4.583,489
6,826
46,594
24
4.936 4.926,104 43,714
4.738,086
9,896
97,931
25
3.941 3.992,441 -54,024
4.969,818 -51,441 2.646,176
26
4.145 4.134,671 -34,399
3.938,417 10,329
106,688
27
4.343 4.330,864 -11,340
4.100,272 12,136
147,282
28
4.141 4.149,926 -28,300
4.319,524 -8,926
79,673
29
3.891 3.902,531 -50,210
4.121,626 -11,531
132,964
30
4.105 4.092,366 -26,206
3.852,321 12,634
159,618
477,714
MSE
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget Stikie Fiesta
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
1
3.930
2
3.952 3.733,500
10,925
0,000
3
4.819 3.961,833
42,858
31,933
4
3.903 4.878,331
-48,767
91,625
5
4.818 3.961,300
42,835
91,602
6
4.490 4.866,085
-18,804
61,639
7
4.117 4.563,996
-22,350
3,546
8
4.202 4.152,077
2,496
24,846
9
4.173 4.216,974
-2,199
4,695
10
4.342 4.188,492
7,675
9,874
11
4.509 4.362,201
7,340
0,335
12
4.382 4.543,482
-8,074
15,414
13
3.941 4.416,555
-23,778
15,704
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget Stikie Fiesta (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
14
4.145 3.946,081
9,946
33,724
15
4.343 4.135,254
10,387
0,441
16
4.141 4.352,549
-10,577
20,964
17
5.074 4.151,416
46,129
56,706
18
5.135 5.115,356
0,982
45,147
19
4.792 5.223,369
-21,568
22,550
20
4.734 4.861,939
-6,397
15,171
21
4.792 4.776,614
0,769
7,166
22
4.558 4.828,910
-13,546
14,315
23
4.720 4.583,489
6,826
20,372
24
4.936 4.738,086
9,896
3,070
25
3.941 4.969,818
-51,441
61,337
26
4.145 3.938,417
10,329
61,770
27
4.343 4.100,272
12,136
1,807
28
4.141 4.319,524
-8,926
21,062
29
3.891 4.121,626
-11,531
2,605
30
4.105 3.852,321
12,634
24,165
763,585
Jumlah
Moving Range Chart
80,000
60,000
E
40,000
UCL
20,000
1/3UCL
0,000
2/3UCL
-20,000
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
LCL
-40,000
1/3LCL
-60,000
2/3LCL
-80,000
GambarMoving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk Nugget Stikie
Fiesta
2.
Peramalan Produk Nugget ABC Fiesta
Tabel Data Permintaan Nugget ABC Fiesta 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015
Periode
Jumlah
23 Juni - 29 Juni 2014
2.681
30 Juni - 06 Juli 2014
2.848
07 Juli - 13 Juli 2014
2.980
14 Juli - 20 Juli 2014
3.061
21 Juli - 27 Juli 2014
2.833
28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014
2.873
04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014
3.000
11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014
2.993
18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014
2.671
25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014
2.639
01 September - 07 September 2014
2.783
08 September - 14 September 2014
2.817
15 September - 21 September 2014
2.668
22 September - 28 September 2014
2.912
29 September - 05 Oktober 2014
3.070
06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014
2.836
13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014
2.798
20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014
2.916
27 Oktober - 02 November 2014
2.938
03 November - 09 November 2014
2.937
10 November - 16 November 2014
2.513
17 November - 23 November 2014
2.599
24 November - 30 November 2014
2.781
01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014
2.797
08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014
2.668
15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014
2.912
22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014
3.070
29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015
2.836
05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015
2.795
12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015
2.915
85.140
Total
Penjualan Nugget ABC Fiesta
3.400
3.200
3.000
2.800
Jumlah
2.600
2.400
2.200
2.000
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
GambarDiagram Pencar Penjualan Nugget ABC Fiesta
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
1
2.681
2.681
2.681
2
2.848
2.697,700
2.682,670
2.712,730
1,670
3
2.980
2.725,930
2.686,996
2.764,864
4,326
Ft+m
et
et^2
2.714,400
265,600
70.543,360
4
3.061
2.759,437
2.694,240
2.824,634
7,244
2.769,190
291,810
85.153,076
5
2.833
2.766,793
2.701,495
2.832,091
7,255
2.831,878
1,122
1,259
6
2.873
2.777,414
2.709,087
2.845,741
7,592
2.839,346
33,654
1.132,592
7
3.000
2.799,673
2.718,146
2.881,200
9,059
2.853,333
146,667
21.511,209
8
2.993
2.819,006
2.728,232
2.909,780
10,086
2.890,259
102,741
10.555,713
9
2.671
2.804,205
2.735,829
2.872,581
7,597
2.919,866
-248,866
61.934,286
10
2.639
2.787,685
2.741,015
2.834,355
5,186
2.880,178
-241,178
58.166,828
11
2.783
2.787,217
2.745,635
2.828,799
4,620
2.839,541
-56,541
3.196,885
12
2.817
2.790,195
2.750,091
2.830,299
4,456
2.833,419
-16,419
269,584
13
2.668
2.777,976
2.752,880
2.803,072
2,788
2.834,755
-166,755
27.807,230
14
2.912
2.791,378
2.756,730
2.826,026
3,850
2.805,860
106,140
11.265,700
15
3.070
2.819,240
2.762,981
2.875,499
6,251
2.829,876
240,124
57.659,535
16
2.836
2.820,916
2.768,775
2.873,057
5,793
2.881,750
-45,750
2.093,063
17
2.798
2.818,624
2.773,760
2.863,488
4,985
2.878,850
-80,850
6.536,723
18
2.916
2.828,362
2.779,220
2.877,504
5,460
2.868,473
47,527
2.258,816
19
2.938
2.839,326
2.785,231
2.893,421
6,011
2.882,964
55,036
3.028,961
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
20
2.937
2.849,093
2.791,617
2.906,569
6,386
21
2.513
2.815,484
2.794,004
2.836,964
22
2.599
2.793,836
2.793,987
23
2.781
2.792,552
24
2.797
25
2.668
Ft+m
et
et^2
2.899,432
37,568
1.411,355
2,387
2.912,955
-399,955
159.964,002
2.793,685
-0,017
2.839,351
-240,351
57.768,603
2.793,844
2.791,260
-0,144
2.793,668
-12,668
160,478
2.792,997
2.793,759
2.792,235
-0,085
2.791,116
5,884
34,621
2.780,497
2.792,433
2.768,561
-1,326
2.792,150
-124,150
15.413,223
26
2.912
2.793,647
2.792,554
2.794,740
0,121
2.767,235
144,765
20.956,905
27
3.070
2.821,282
2.795,427
2.847,137
2,873
2.794,861
275,139
75.701,469
28
2.836
2.822,754
2.798,160
2.847,348
2,733
2.850,010
-14,010
196,280
29
2.795
2.819,979
2.800,342
2.839,616
2,182
2.850,081
-55,081
3.033,917
30
2.915
2.829,481
2.803,256
2.855,706
2,914
2.841,798
73,202
5.358,533
25.437,140
MSE
Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt
Periode Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
1
2.681
2.547,0
0
2
2.848 2.832,95 14,300 2.546,950
15,052 226,563
3
2.980 2.973,362 20,606 2.847,248
6,638 44,063
4
3.061 3.057,648 23,790 2.993,968
3,352 11,236
5
2.833 2.845,422 11,989 3.081,438 -12,422 154,306
6
2.873 2.872,221 12,730 2.857,411
0,779
0,607
7
3.000 2.994,248 18,195 2.884,951
5,752 33,086
8
2.993 2.993,972 17,271 3.012,443
-0,972
0,945
9
2.671 2.688,012
1,109 3.011,243 -17,012 289,408
10
2.639 2.641,506 -1,272 2.689,121
-2,506
6,280
11
2.783 2.775,862
5,509 2.640,234
7,138 50,951
12
2.817 2.815,219
7,201 2.781,371
1,781
3,172
13
2.668 2.675,721 -0,134 2.822,420
-7,721 59,614
14
2.912 2.900,179 11,096 2.675,587
11,821 139,736
15
3.070 3.062,064 18,635 2.911,275
7,936 62,980
16
2.836 2.848,235
7,012 3.080,699 -12,235 149,695
17
2.798 2.800,862
4,293 2.855,247
-2,862
8,191
18
2.916 2.910,458
9,558 2.805,155
5,542 30,714
19
2.938 2.937,101 10,412 2.920,016
0,899
0,808
20
2.937 2.937,526
9,913 2.947,513
-0,526
0,277
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt (Lanjutan)
Periode Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
21
2.513 2.534,722 -10,723 2.947,439 -21,722 471,845
22
2.599 2.595,250 -7,160 2.523,999
3,750 14,063
23
2.781 2.771,355
2,003 2.588,090
9,645 93,026
24
2.797 2.795,818
3,126 2.773,358
1,182
1,397
25
2.668 2.674,547 -3,094 2.798,944
-6,547 42,863
26
2.912 2.899,973
8,332 2.671,453
12,027 144,649
27
3.070 3.061,915 16,013 2.908,305
8,085 65,367
28
2.836 2.848,096
4,521 3.077,928 -12,096 146,313
29
2.795 2.797,881
1,784 2.852,617
-2,881
8,300
30
2.915 2.909,233
7,262 2.799,665
5,767 33,258
76,457
MSE
TabelVerifikasi Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
1 2.681
2 2.848
2.546,950
15,052
0,000
3 2.980
2.847,248
6,638
8,414
4 3.061
2.993,968
3,352
3,286
5 2.833
3.081,438
-12,422 15,774
6 2.873
2.857,411
0,779 13,201
7 3.000
2.884,951
5,752
4,973
8 2.993
3.012,443
-0,972
6,724
9 2.671
3.011,243
-17,012 16,040
10 2.639
2.689,121
-2,506 14,506
11 2.783
2.640,234
7,138
9,644
12 2.817
2.781,371
1,781
5,357
13 2.668
2.822,420
-7,721
9,502
14 2.912
2.675,587
11,821 19,542
15 3.070
2.911,275
7,936
3,885
16 2.836
3.080,699
-12,235 20,171
17 2.798
2.855,247
-2,862
9,373
18 2.916
2.805,155
5,542
8,404
19 2.938
2.920,016
0,899
4,643
20 2.937
2.947,513
-0,526
1,425
21 2.513
2.947,439
-21,722 21,196
TabelVerifikasi Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
22 2.599
2.523,999
3,750 25,472
23 2.781
2.588,090
9,645
5,895
24 2.797
2.773,358
1,182
8,463
25 2.668
2.798,944
-6,547
7,729
26 2.912
2.671,453
12,027 18,574
27 3.070
2.908,305
8,085
3,942
28 2.836
3.077,928
-12,096 20,181
29 2.795
2.852,617
-2,881
9,215
30 2.915
2.799,665
5,767
8,648
304,179
Jumlah
Moving Range Chart
40,000
30,000
E
20,000
UCL
10,000
1/3UCL
0,000
-10,000
2/3UCL
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
LCL
-20,000
1/3LCL
-30,000
2/3LCL
-40,000
GambarMoving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk Nugget ABC
Fiesta
3.
Peramalan Produk Nugget Champ
TabelData Permintaan Nugget Champ 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015
Periode
Jumlah
07 Juli - 13 Juli 2014
5.576
14 Juli - 20 Juli 2014
4.647
21 Juli - 27 Juli 2014
5.238
28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014
5.290
04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014
6.836
11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014
8.036
18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014
5.998
25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014
6.530
01 September - 07 September 2014
6.599
08 September - 14 September 2014
6.626
15 September - 21 September 2014
5.901
22 September - 28 September 2014
7.151
29 September - 05 Oktober 2014
6.866
06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014
7.683
13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014
5.961
20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014
6.390
27 Oktober - 02 November 2014
6.974
03 November - 09 November 2014
6.761
10 November - 16 November 2014
9.235
17 November - 23 November 2014
9.383
24 November - 30 November 2014
9.439
01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014
9.199
08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014
5.901
15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014
7.151
22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014
6.866
29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015
7.683
05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015
4.575
12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015
4.799
Total
201.343
Penjualan Nugget Champ
9.500
9.000
8.500
8.000
7.500
7.000
6.500
6.000
5.500
5.000
4.500
Jumlah
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
GambarDiagram Pencar Penjualan Nugget Champ
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
1
5.829
5.829
5.829
2
6.220
5.946,300
5.864,190
6.028,410
35,190
3
5.576
5.835,210
5.855,496
5.814,924
-8,694
6.063,600
-487,600
237.753,760
4
4.647
5.478,747
5.742,471
5.215,023
-113,025
5.806,230
-1.159,230
1.343.814,193
5
5.238
5.406,523
5.641,687
5.171,359
-100,785
5.101,998
136,002
18.496,544
6
5.290
5.371,566
5.560,651
5.182,481
-81,036
5.070,574
219,426
48.147,769
7
6.836
5.810,896
5.635,725
5.986,067
75,073
5.101,445
1.734,555
3.008.681,048
8
8.036
6.478,427
5.888,536
7.068,318
252,810
6.061,140
1.974,860
3.900.072,020
9
5.998
6.334,299
6.022,265
6.646,333
133,729
7.321,128
-1.323,128
1.750.667,704
10
6.530
6.393,009
6.133,488
6.652,530
111,223
6.780,062
-250,062
62.531,004
11
6.599
6.454,806
6.229,883
6.679,729
96,396
6.763,753
-164,753
27.143,551
12
6.626
6.506,164
6.312,767
6.699,561
82,884
6.776,125
-150,125
22.537,516
13
5.901
6.324,615
6.316,321
6.332,909
3,555
6.782,445
-881,445
776.945,288
14
7.151
6.572,531
6.393,184
6.751,878
76,863
6.336,464
814,536
663.468,895
15
6.866
6.660,572
6.473,400
6.847,744
80,217
6.828,741
37,259
1.388,233
16
7.683
6.967,300
6.621,570
7.313,030
148,170
6.927,961
755,039
570.083,892
17
5.961
6.665,410
6.634,722
6.696,098
13,152
7.461,200
-1.500,200
2.250.600,040
18
6.390
6.582,787
6.619,142
6.546,432
-15,581
6.709,250
-319,250
101.920,563
19
6.974
6.700,151
6.643,445
6.756,857
24,303
6.530,851
443,149
196.381,036
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
20
6.761
6.718,406
6.665,933
6.770,879
22,488
6.781,160
-20,160
406,426
21
9.235
7.473,384
6.908,168
8.038,600
242,235
6.793,367
2.441,633
5.961.571,707
22
9.383
8.046,269
7.249,598
8.842,940
341,430
8.280,835
1.102,165
1.214.767,687
23
9.439
8.464,088
7.613,945
9.314,231
364,347
9.184,370
254,630
64.836,437
24
9.199
8.684,562
7.935,130
9.433,994
321,185
9.678,578
-479,578
229.995,058
25
5.901
7.849,493
7.909,439
7.789,547
-25,691
9.755,179
-3.854,179
14.854.695,764
26
7.151
7.639,945
7.828,591
7.451,299
-80,848
7.763,856
-612,856
375.592,477
27
6.866
7.407,762
7.702,342
7.113,182
-126,249
7.370,451
-504,451
254.470,811
28
7.683
7.490,333
7.638,739
7.341,927
-63,603
6.986,933
696,067
484.509,268
29
4.575
6.615,733
7.331,837
5.899,629
-306,902
7.278,324
-2.703,324
7.307.960,649
30
4.799
6.070,713
6.953,500
5.187,926
-378,337
5.592,727
-793,727
630.002,551
1.545.314,730
MSE
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt
Periode
Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
1
5.829
5.537,6
0
2
6.220
6.185,88
64,833 5.537,550
34,122 1.164,311
3
5.576 5.609,736
0,736 6.250,711
-33,736 1.138,118
4
4.647 4.695,174
-90,794 5.610,472
-48,174 2.320,734
5
5.238 5.206,319
-30,600 4.604,380
31,681 1.003,686
6
5.290 5.284,286
-19,743 5.175,719
5,714
32,650
7
6.836 6.757,427
129,545 5.264,543
78,573 6.173,716
8
8.036 7.978,549
238,703 6.886,972
57,451 3.300,617
9
5.998 6.108,963
27,874 8.217,252 -110,963 12.312,787
10
6.530 6.510,342
65,225 6.136,837
19,658
386,437
11
6.599 6.597,828
67,451 6.575,567
1,172
1,374
12
6.626 6.627,964
63,719 6.665,279
-1,964
3,857
13
5.901 5.940,534
-11,396 6.691,683
-39,534 1.562,937
14
7.151 7.089,907
104,681 5.929,138
61,093 3.732,355
15
6.866 6.882,429
73,465 7.194,588
-16,429
269,912
16
7.683 7.646,645
142,540 6.955,894
36,355 1.321,686
17
5.961 6.052,409
-31,138 7.789,185
-91,409 8.355,605
18
6.390 6.371,564
3,891 6.021,271
18,436
339,886
19
6.974 6.944,073
60,753 6.375,455
29,927
895,625
20
6.761 6.773,191
37,589 7.004,826
-12,191
148,620
TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt (Lanjutan)
Periode
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Xt
9.235
9.383
9.439
9.199
5.901
7.151
6.866
7.683
4.575
4.799
St
9.113,789
9.382,934
9.449,598
9.223,924
6.077,173
7.090,599
6.876,258
7.640,716
4.730,356
4.782,879
Bt
267,890
268,016
247,881
200,526
-134,202
-19,439
-38,929
41,410
-253,767
-223,138
Ft
6.810,780
9.381,679
9.650,950
9.697,479
9.424,450
5.942,971
7.071,160
6.837,329
7.682,126
4.476,589
Et
Et^2
121,211 14.692,107
0,066
0,004
-10,598
112,318
-24,924
621,206
-176,173 31.036,926
60,401 3.648,281
-10,258
105,227
42,284 1.787,937
-155,356 24.135,487
16,121
259,887
4.028,810
MSE
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget Champ
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
1 5.829
2 6.220
5.537,550
34,122
0,000
3 5.576
6.250,711
-33,736 67,858
4 4.647
5.610,472
-48,174 14,438
5 5.238
4.604,380
31,681 79,855
6 5.290
5.175,719
5,714 25,967
7 6.836
5.264,543
78,573 72,859
8 8.036
6.886,972
57,451 21,122
9 5.998
8.217,252 -110,963 168,414
10 6.530
6.136,837
19,658 130,621
11 6.599
6.575,567
1,172 18,486
12 6.626
6.665,279
-1,964
3,136
13 5.901
6.691,683
-39,534 37,570
14 7.151
5.929,138
61,093 100,627
15 6.866
7.194,588
-16,429 77,522
16 7.683
6.955,894
36,355 52,784
17 5.961
7.789,185
-91,409 127,764
18 6.390
6.021,271
18,436 109,845
19 6.974
6.375,455
29,927 11,491
20 6.761
7.004,826
-12,191 42,118
21 9.235
6.810,780
121,211 133,402
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget Champ (Lanjutan)
Periode
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Xt
9.383
9.439
9.199
5.901
7.151
6.866
7.683
4.575
4.799
Ft
9.381,679
9.650,950
9.697,479
9.424,450
5.942,971
7.071,160
6.837,329
7.682,126
4.476,589
Jumlah
Et
0,066
-10,598
-24,924
-176,173
60,401
-10,258
42,284
-155,356
16,121
MR
121,145
10,664
14,326
151,249
236,574
70,659
52,542
197,640
171,477
2.322,155
Moving Range Chart
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0,000
-50,000
-100,000
-150,000
-200,000
-250,000
E
UCL
1/3UCL
2/3UCL
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
LCL
1/3LCL
2/3LCL
GambarMoving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk Nugget Champ
4.
Peramalan Produk Nugget Coin Champ
Tabel Data Permintaan Nugget Coin Champ 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015
Periode
Jumlah
23 Juni - 29 Juni 2014
4.353
30 Juni - 06 Juli 2014
4.180
07 Juli - 13 Juli 2014
3.220
14 Juli - 20 Juli 2014
3.001
21 Juli - 27 Juli 2014
3.588
Tabel Data Permintaan Nugget Coin Champ 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015
(Lanjutan)
Periode
28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014
04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014
11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014
18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014
25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014
01 September - 07 September 2014
08 September - 14 September 2014
15 September - 21 September 2014
22 September - 28 September 2014
29 September - 05 Oktober 2014
06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014
13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014
20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014
27 Oktober - 02 November 2014
03 November - 09 November 2014
10 November - 16 November 2014
17 November - 23 November 2014
24 November - 30 November 2014
01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014
08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014
15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014
22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014
29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015
05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015
12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015
Total
Jumlah
3.188
4.188
3.012
3.011
3.590
3.610
3.427
4.502
4.560
4.294
4.186
3.196
3.082
3.398
3.766
3.420
3.780
3.940
4.138
4.502
4.560
4.294
4.186
2.799
2.967
111.938
Penjualan Nugget Coin Champ
5.000
4.500
4.000
Jumlah
3.500
3.000
2.500
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
GambarDiagram Pencar Penjualan Nugget Coin Champ
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
1
4.353
4.353
4.353
2
4.180
4.283,800
4.325,320
4.242,280
-27,680
3
3.220
3.858,280
4.138,504
3.578,056
-186,816
4.214,600
-994,600
989.229,160
4
3.001
3.515,368
3.889,250
3.141,486
-249,255
3.391,240
-390,240
152.287,258
5
3.588
3.544,421
3.751,318
3.337,524
-137,931
2.892,231
695,769
484.094,501
6
3.188
3.401,853
3.611,532
3.192,174
-139,786
3.199,593
-11,593
134,398
7
4.188
3.716,312
3.653,444
3.779,180
41,912
3.052,388
1.135,612
1.289.614,615
8
3.012
3.434,587
3.565,901
3.303,273
-87,543
3.821,092
-809,092
654.629,864
9
3.011
3.265,152
3.445,601
3.084,703
-120,299
3.215,730
-204,730
41.914,373
10
3.590
3.395,091
3.425,397
3.364,785
-20,204
2.964,404
625,596
391.370,355
11
3.610
3.481,055
3.447,660
3.514,450
22,263
3.344,581
265,419
70.447,246
12
3.427
3.459,433
3.452,369
3.466,497
4,709
3.536,713
-109,713
12.036,942
13
4.502
3.876,460
3.622,005
4.130,915
169,637
3.471,206
1.030,794
1.062.536,270
14
4.560
4.149,876
3.833,153
4.466,599
211,149
4.300,552
259,448
67.313,265
15
4.294
4.207,526
3.982,902
4.432,150
149,749
4.677,748
-383,748
147.262,528
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
16
4.186
4.198,916
4.069,308
4.328,524
86,405
4.581,899
-395,899
156.736,018
17
3.196
3.797,750
3.960,685
3.634,815
-108,623
4.414,929
-1.218,929
1.485.787,907
18
3.082
3.511,450
3.780,991
3.241,909
-179,694
3.526,192
-444,192
197.306,533
19
3.398
3.466,070
3.655,023
3.277,117
-125,969
3.062,215
335,785
112.751,566
20
3.766
3.586,042
3.627,431
3.544,653
-27,593
3.151,148
614,852
378.042,982
21
3.420
3.519,625
3.584,309
3.454,941
-43,123
3.517,060
-97,060
9.420,644
22
3.780
3.623,775
3.600,095
3.647,455
15,787
3.411,818
368,182
135.557,985
23
3.940
3.750,265
3.660,163
3.840,367
60,068
3.663,242
276,758
76.594,991
24
4.138
3.905,359
3.758,241
4.052,477
98,079
3.900,435
237,565
56.437,129
25
4.502
4.144,015
3.912,551
4.375,479
154,309
4.150,556
351,444
123.512,885
26
4.560
4.310,409
4.071,694
4.549,124
159,143
4.529,788
30,212
912,765
27
4.294
4.303,845
4.164,554
4.443,136
92,861
4.708,267
-414,267
171.617,147
28
4.186
4.256,707
4.201,415
4.311,999
36,861
4.535,997
-349,997
122.497,900
29
2.799
3.673,624
3.990,299
3.356,949
-211,117
4.348,860
-1.549,860
2.402.066,020
30
2.967
3.390,974
3.750,569
3.031,379
-239,730
3.145,832
-178,832
31.980,884
360.803,138
MSE
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt
Periode
Xt
St
1
4.353
2
4.180
4.177,77
4,242
4.135,350
2,232
4,982
3
3.220
3.268,101
-87,149
4.182,010
-48,101
2.313,706
4
3.001
3.009,998
-104,244
3.180,952
-8,998
80,964
5
3.588
3.553,888
-39,431
2.905,754
34,112
1.163,629
6
3.188
3.204,323
-70,444
3.514,457
-16,323
266,440
7
4.188
4.135,294
29,698
3.133,879
52,706
2.777,922
8
3.012
3.069,650
-79,836
4.164,992
-57,650
3.323,523
9
3.011
3.009,941
-77,823
2.989,814
1,059
1,121
10
3.590
3.557,106
-15,324
2.932,118
32,894
1.082,015
11
3.610
3.606,589
-8,843
3.541,782
3,411
11,635
12
3.427
3.435,537
-25,064
3.597,746
-8,537
72,880
13
4.502
4.447,424
78,631
3.410,473
54,576
2.978,540
14
4.560
4.558,303
81,856
4.526,055
1,697
2,880
15
4.294
4.311,308
48,971
4.640,159
-17,308
299,567
16
4.186
4.194,714
32,415
4.360,279
-8,714
75,934
4.135,4
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
0
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
St
17
3.196
3.247,556
Bt
-65,542
Ft
4.227,129
Et
Et^2
-51,556
2.658,021
18
3.082
3.087,001
-75,043
3.182,014
-5,001
25,010
19
3.398
3.378,698
-38,369
3.011,958
19,302
372,567
20
3.766
3.744,716
2,070
3.340,329
21,284
453,009
21
3.420
3.436,339
-28,975
3.746,786
-16,339
266,963
22
3.780
3.761,368
6,425
3.407,364
18,632
347,151
23
3.940
3.931,390
22,785
3.767,793
8,610
74,132
24
4.138
4.128,809
40,248
3.954,175
9,191
84,474
25
4.502
4.485,353
71,878
4.169,057
16,647
277,123
26
4.560
4.559,862
72,141
4.557,231
0,138
0,019
27
4.294
4.310,900
40,031
4.632,003
-16,900
285,610
28
4.186
4.194,247
24,363
4.350,931
-8,247
68,013
29
2.799
2.869,981
-110,500
4.218,610
-70,981
5.038,302
30
2.967
2.956,624
-90,786
2.759,481
10,376
107,661
817,126
MSE
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
1
4.353
2
4.180 4.135,350
2,232
0,000
3
3.220 4.182,010 -48,101
50,333
4
3.001 3.180,952
-8,998
39,103
5
3.588 2.905,754
34,112
43,110
6
3.188 3.514,457 -16,323
50,435
7
4.188 3.133,879
52,706
69,029
8
3.012 4.164,992 -57,650 110,356
9
3.011 2.989,814
1,059
58,709
10
3.590 2.932,118
32,894
31,835
11
3.610 3.541,782
3,411
29,483
12
3.427 3.597,746
-8,537
11,948
13
4.502 3.410,473
54,576
63,113
14
4.560 4.526,055
1,697
52,879
15
4.294 4.640,159 -17,308
19,005
16
4.186 4.360,279
-8,714
8,594
17
3.196 4.227,129 -51,556
42,842
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ
Periode
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Xt
3.082
3.398
3.766
3.420
3.780
3.940
4.138
4.502
4.560
4.294
4.186
2.799
2.967
Ft
3.182,014
3.011,958
3.340,329
3.746,786
3.407,364
3.767,793
3.954,175
4.169,057
4.557,231
4.632,003
4.350,931
4.218,610
2.759,481
Jumlah
Et
-5,001
19,302
21,284
-16,339
18,632
8,610
9,191
16,647
0,138
-16,900
-8,247
-70,981
10,376
MR
46,555
24,303
1,982
37,623
34,971
10,022
0,581
7,456
16,509
17,038
8,653
62,734
81,357
1.030,558
Moving Range Chart
150,000
E
100,000
UCL
50,000
1/3UCL
0,000
2/3UCL
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
-50,000
LCL
1/3LCL
-100,000
2/3LCL
-150,000
Gambar Moving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk Nugget Coin
Champ
5.
Peramalan Produk Nugget Champ ABC
Tabel Data Permintaan Nugget Champ ABC 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015
Periode
23 Juni - 29 Juni 2014
30 Juni - 06 Juli 2014
07 Juli - 13 Juli 2014
14 Juli - 20 Juli 2014
21 Juli - 27 Juli 2014
28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014
04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014
11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014
18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014
25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014
01 September - 07 September 2014
08 September - 14 September 2014
15 September - 21 September 2014
22 September - 28 September 2014
29 September - 05 Oktober 2014
06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014
13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014
20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014
27 Oktober - 02 November 2014
03 November - 09 November 2014
10 November - 16 November 2014
17 November - 23 November 2014
24 November - 30 November 2014
01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014
08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014
15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014
22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014
29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015
05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015
12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015
Total
Jumlah
3.129
3.419
4.178
4.114
4.027
3.998
4.022
3.946
3.482
3.684
3.886
3.680
3.617
3.632
3.801
3.417
3.182
3.390
3.222
3.254
3.708
3.773
3.387
3.399
3.617
3.632
3.801
3.417
3.215
3.399
108.428
Penjualan Nugget Champ ABC
4.400
4.200
4.000
3.800
Jumlah
3.600
3.400
3.200
3.000
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
GambarDiagram Pencar Penjualan Nugget Champ ABC
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ ABC
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
1
3.129
3.129
3.129
2
3.419
3.274,000
3.201,500
3.346,500
72,500
3
4.178
3.726,000
3.463,750
3.988,250
262,250
Ft+m
3.419,000
et
759,000
et^2
576.081,000
4
4.114
3.920,000
3.691,875
4.148,125
228,125
4.250,500
-136,500
18.632,250
5
4.027
3.973,500
3.832,688
4.114,312
140,812
4.376,250
-349,250
121.975,563
6
3.998
3.985,750
3.909,219
4.062,281
76,531
4.255,124
-257,124
66.112,751
7
4.022
4.003,875
3.956,547
4.051,203
47,328
4.138,812
-116,812
13.645,043
8
3.946
3.974,938
3.965,743
3.984,133
9,195
4.098,531
-152,531
23.265,706
9
3.482
3.728,469
3.847,106
3.609,832
-118,637
3.993,328
-511,328
261.456,324
10
3.684
3.706,235
3.776,671
3.635,799
-70,436
3.491,195
192,805
37.173,768
11
3.886
3.796,118
3.786,395
3.805,841
9,723
3.565,363
320,637
102.808,086
12
3.680
3.738,059
3.762,227
3.713,891
-24,168
3.815,564
-135,564
18.377,598
13
3.617
3.677,530
3.719,879
3.635,181
-42,349
3.689,723
-72,723
5.288,635
14
3.632
3.654,765
3.687,322
3.622,208
-32,557
3.592,832
39,168
1.534,132
15
3.801
3.727,883
3.707,603
3.748,163
20,280
3.589,651
211,349
44.668,400
16
3.417
3.572,442
3.640,023
3.504,861
-67,581
3.768,443
-351,443
123.512,182
17
3.182
3.377,221
3.508,622
3.245,820
-131,401
3.437,280
-255,280
65.167,878
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error PeramalanNugget Champ ABC
dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
18
3.390
3.383,611
3.446,117
3.321,105
-62,506
3.114,419
275,581
75.944,888
19
3.222
3.302,806
3.374,462
3.231,150
-71,656
3.258,599
-36,599
1.339,487
20
3.254
3.278,403
3.326,433
3.230,373
-48,030
3.159,494
94,506
8.931,384
21
3.708
3.493,202
3.409,818
3.576,586
83,384
3.182,343
525,657
276.315,282
22
3.773
3.633,101
3.521,460
3.744,742
111,641
3.659,970
113,030
12.775,781
23
3.387
3.510,051
3.515,756
3.504,346
-5,705
3.856,383
-469,383
220.320,401
24
3.399
3.454,526
3.485,141
3.423,911
-30,615
3.498,641
-99,641
9.928,329
25
3.617
3.535,763
3.510,452
3.561,074
25,311
3.393,296
223,704
50.043,480
26
3.632
3.583,882
3.547,167
3.620,597
36,715
3.586,385
45,615
2.080,728
27
3.801
3.692,441
3.619,804
3.765,078
72,637
3.657,312
143,688
20.646,241
28
3.417
3.554,721
3.587,263
3.522,179
-32,542
3.837,715
-420,715
177.001,111
29
3.215
3.384,861
3.486,062
3.283,660
-101,201
3.489,637
-274,637
75.425,482
30
3.399
3.391,931
3.438,997
3.344,865
-47,066
3.182,459
216,541
46.890,005
81.911,397
MSE
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ
ABCdengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt
Periode
Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
1
3.129
2.972,6
0
2
3.419 3.396,68 42,413 2.972,550 22,322
498,272
3
4.178 4.141,055 112,609 3.439,091 36,945 1.364,933
4
4.114 4.120,983 99,341 4.253,664
-6,983
48,762
5
4.027 4.036,666 80,975 4.220,324
-9,666
93,432
6
3.998 4.003,982 69,609 4.117,641
-5,982
35,784
7
4.022 4.024,580 64,708 4.073,591
-2,580
6,656
8
3.946 3.953,164 51,096 4.089,288
-7,164
51,323
9
3.482 3.508,113
1,481 4.004,260 -26,113
681,889
10
3.684 3.675,280 18,050 3.509,594
8,720
76,038
11
3.886 3.876,367 36,354 3.693,330
9,633
92,795
12
3.680 3.691,636 14,246 3.912,721 -11,636
135,396
13
3.617 3.621,444
5,802 3.705,882
-4,444
19,749
14
3.632 3.631,762
6,254 3.627,246
0,238
0,057
15
3.801 3.792,851 21,738 3.638,016
8,149
66,406
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ
ABCdengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt (Lanjutan)
Periode
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Xt
3.417
3.182
3.390
3.222
3.254
3.708
3.773
3.387
3.399
3.617
3.632
3.801
3.417
3.215
3.399
St
3.436,879
3.193,942
3.378,261
3.228,992
3.251,264
3.683,938
3.769,608
3.407,513
3.398,860
3.605,540
3.631,213
3.793,122
3.437,165
3.225,552
3.388,769
Bt
-16,033
-38,723
-16,419
-29,704
-24,506
21,212
27,658
-11,317
-11,051
10,722
12,217
27,186
-11,128
-31,177
-11,738
Ft
3.814,589
3.420,846
3.155,219
3.361,842
3.199,288
3.226,758
3.705,150
3.797,266
3.396,196
3.387,809
3.616,262
3.643,430
3.820,308
3.426,037
3.194,375
Et
-19,879
-11,942
11,739
-6,992
2,736
24,062
3,392
-20,513
0,140
11,460
0,787
7,878
-20,165
-10,552
10,231
Et^2
395,175
142,611
137,804
48,888
7,486
578,980
11,506
420,783
0,020
131,332
0,619
62,063
406,627
111,345
104,673
191,047
MSE
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget ChampABC
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
1
3.129
2
3.419 2.972,550
22,322
0,000
3
4.178 3.439,091
36,945
14,623
4
4.114 4.253,664
-6,983
43,928
5
4.027 4.220,324
-9,666
2,683
6
3.998 4.117,641
-5,982
3,684
7
4.022 4.073,591
-2,580
3,402
8
3.946 4.089,288
-7,164
4,584
9
3.482 4.004,260 -26,113
18,949
10
3.684 3.509,594
8,720
34,833
11
3.886 3.693,330
9,633
0,913
12
3.680 3.912,721 -11,636
21,269
13
3.617 3.705,882
-4,444
7,192
14
3.632 3.627,246
0,238
4,682
15
3.801 3.638,016
8,149
7,911
16
3.417 3.814,589 -19,879
28,028
17
3.182 3.420,846 -11,942
7,937
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget ChampABC (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
3.390
3.222
3.254
3.708
3.773
3.387
3.399
3.617
3.632
3.801
3.417
3.215
3.399
3.155,219
3.361,842
3.199,288
3.226,758
3.705,150
3.797,266
3.396,196
3.387,809
3.616,262
3.643,430
3.820,308
3.426,037
3.194,375
Jumlah
11,739
-6,992
2,736
24,062
3,392
-20,513
0,140
11,460
0,787
7,878
-20,165
-10,552
10,231
23,681
18,731
9,728
21,326
20,670
23,905
20,653
11,320
10,673
7,091
28,043
9,613
20,783
430,835
Moving Range Chart
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0,000
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
-40,000
-50,000
E
UCL
1/3UCL
2/3UCL
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
LCL
1/3LCL
2/3LCL
Gambar Moving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk Nugget
ChampABC
6.
Peramalan Produk Stick Champ
Tabel Data Permintaan Stick Champ 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015
(Lanjutan)
Periode
Jumlah
23 Juni - 29 Juni 2014
30 Juni - 06 Juli 2014
07 Juli - 13 Juli 2014
14 Juli - 20 Juli 2014
21 Juli - 27 Juli 2014
28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014
04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014
11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014
18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014
25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014
01 September - 07 September 2014
08 September - 14 September 2014
15 September - 21 September 2014
22 September - 28 September 2014
29 September - 05 Oktober 2014
06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014
13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014
20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014
27 Oktober - 02 November 2014
03 November - 09 November 2014
10 November - 16 November 2014
17 November - 23 November 2014
24 November - 30 November 2014
01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014
08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014
15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014
22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014
29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015
05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015
12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015
Total
3.418
3.535
3.816
4.077
4.376
4.096
3.416
3.396
3.731
4.015
4.934
3.838
3.800
3.424
3.680
3.848
5.198
6.338
6.174
5.997
4.775
4.373
4.575
3.875
3.800
3.848
3.424
3.680
3.709
3.797
124.963
Penjualan Stick Champ
6.500
6.000
5.500
5.000
4.500
Jumlah
4.000
3.500
3.000
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Gambar Diagram Pencar Penjualan Stick Champ
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stick Champdengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
[PE]
1
3.418
3.418
3.418
2
3.535
3.476,500
3.447,250
3.505,750
29,250
3
3.816
3.646,250
3.546,750
3.745,750
99,500
3.535,000
281,000
78.961,000
7,363732
4
4.077
3.861,625
3.704,188
4.019,062
157,437
3.845,250
231,750
53.708,063
5,684327
5
4.376
4.118,813
3.911,501
4.326,125
207,312
4.176,499
199,501
39.800,649
4,558981
6
4.096
4.107,407
4.009,454
4.205,360
97,953
4.533,437
-437,437
191.351,129
10,67961
7
3.416
3.761,704
3.885,579
3.637,829
-123,875
4.303,313
-887,313
787.324,360
25,9752
8
3.396
3.578,852
3.732,216
3.425,488
-153,364
3.513,954
-117,954
13.913,146
3,473322
9
3.731
3.654,926
3.693,571
3.616,281
-38,645
3.272,124
458,876
210.567,183
12,29901
10
4.015
3.834,963
3.764,267
3.905,659
70,696
3.577,636
437,364
191.287,268
10,89325
11
4.934
4.384,482
4.074,375
4.694,589
310,107
3.976,355
957,645
917.083,946
19,4091
12
3.838
4.111,241
4.092,808
4.129,674
18,433
5.004,696
-1.166,696
1.361.179,556
30,39854
13
3.800
3.955,621
4.024,215
3.887,027
-68,594
4.148,107
-348,107
121.178,483
9,160711
14
3.424
3.689,811
3.857,013
3.522,609
-167,202
3.818,433
-394,433
155.577,391
11,51966
15
3.680
3.684,906
3.770,960
3.598,852
-86,054
3.355,407
324,593
105.360,616
8,820462
16
3.848
3.766,453
3.768,707
3.764,199
-2,254
3.512,798
335,202
112.360,381
8,711071
17
5.198
4.482,227
4.125,467
4.838,987
356,760
3.761,945
1.436,055
2.062.253,963
27,62707
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stick Champdengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
18
6.338
5.410,114
4.767,791
6.052,437
19
6.174
5.792,057
5.279,924
20
5.997
5.894,529
21
4.775
22
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
642,323
5.195,747
1.142,253
1.304.741,916
6.304,190
512,133
6.694,760
-520,760
271.190,978
5.587,227
6.201,831
307,302
6.816,323
-819,323
671.290,178
5.334,765
5.460,996
5.208,534
-126,231
6.509,133
-1.734,133
3.007.217,262
4.373
4.853,883
5.157,440
4.550,326
-303,557
5.082,303
-709,303
503.110,746
23
4.575
4.714,442
4.935,941
4.492,943
-221,499
4.246,769
328,231
107.735,589
24
3.875
4.294,721
4.615,331
3.974,111
-320,610
4.271,444
-396,444
157.167,845
25
3.800
4.047,361
4.331,346
3.763,376
-283,985
3.653,501
146,499
21.461,957
26
3.848
3.947,681
4.139,514
3.755,848
-191,833
3.479,391
368,609
135.872,595
27
3.424
3.685,841
3.912,678
3.459,004
-226,837
3.564,015
-140,015
19.604,200
28
3.680
3.682,921
3.797,800
3.568,042
-114,879
3.232,167
447,833
200.554,396
29
3.709
3.695,961
3.746,881
3.645,041
-50,920
3.453,163
255,837
65.452,571
30
3.797
3.746,481
3.746,681
3.746,281
-0,200
3.594,121
202,879
41.159,889
430.282,242
MSE
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stick Champ dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt
Periode
Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
1
3.418
3.247,1
0
2
3.535 3.520,61 27,351 3.247,100 14,395
207,216
3
3.816 3.802,598 52,815 3.547,956 13,402
179,614
4
4.077 4.065,921 73,866 3.855,413 11,079
122,744
5
4.376 4.364,189 96,306 4.139,787 11,811
139,500
6
4.096 4.114,225 61,679 4.460,495 -18,225 332,151
7
3.416 3.453,995 -10,512 4.175,904 -37,995 1.443,620
8
3.396 3.398,374 -15,023 3.443,483 -2,374
5,636
9
3.731 3.713,618 18,004 3.383,351 17,382
302,134
10
4.015 4.000,831 44,925 3.731,622 14,169
200,761
11
4.934 4.889,588 129,308 4.045,756 44,412 1.972,426
12
3.838 3.897,045 17,123 5.018,896 -59,045 3.486,312
13
3.800 3.805,708 6,277 3.914,168 -5,708
32,581
14
3.424 3.443,399 -30,582 3.811,985 -19,399 376,321
15
3.680 3.666,641 -5,200 3.412,817 13,359
178,463
16
3.848 3.838,672 12,523 3.661,441
9,328
87,012
17
5.198 5.130,660 140,470 3.851,195 67,340 4.534,676
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stick Champ dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
18
6.338 6.284,657 241,823 5.271,130 53,343 2.845,476
19
6.174 6.191,624 208,337 6.526,480 -17,624 310,605
20
5.997 6.017,148 170,056 6.399,961 -20,148 405,942
21
4.775 4.845,610 35,897 6.187,204 -70,610 4.985,772
22
4.373 4.398,425 -12,411 4.881,507 -25,425 646,431
23
4.575 4.565,551 5,543 4.386,014
9,449
89,284
24
3.875 3.909,805 -60,586 4.571,094 -34,805 1.211,388
25
3.800 3.802,461 -65,262 3.849,219 -2,461
6,057
26
3.848 3.842,460 -54,736 3.737,199
5,540
30,692
27
3.424 3.442,186 -89,290 3.787,724 -18,186 330,731
28
3.680 3.663,645 -58,215 3.352,896 16,355
267,486
29
3.709 3.703,822 -48,376 3.605,430
5,178
26,812
30
3.797 3.789,922 -34,928 3.655,446
7,078
50,098
826,931
MSE
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan StickChamp
Periode
Xt
Ft
Et
MR
1
3.418
2
3.535 3.247,100
14,395
0,000
3
3.816 3.547,956
13,402
0,993
4
4.077 3.855,413
11,079
2,323
5
4.376 4.139,787
11,811
0,732
6
4.096 4.460,495 -18,225
30,036
7
3.416 4.175,904 -37,995
19,770
8
3.396 3.443,483
-2,374
35,621
9
3.731 3.383,351
17,382
19,756
10
4.015 3.731,622
14,169
3,213
11
4.934 4.045,756
44,412
30,243
12
3.838 5.018,896 -59,045 103,457
13
3.800 3.914,168
-5,708
53,337
14
3.424 3.811,985 -19,399
13,691
15
3.680 3.412,817
13,359
32,758
16
3.848 3.661,441
9,328
4,031
17
5.198 3.851,195
67,340
58,012
18
6.338 5.271,130
53,343
13,997
19
6.174 6.526,480 -17,624
70,967
Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan StickChamp (Lanjutan)
Periode
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Xt
5.997
4.775
4.373
4.575
3.875
3.800
3.848
3.424
3.680
3.709
3.797
Ft
6.399,961
6.187,204
4.881,507
4.386,014
4.571,094
3.849,219
3.737,199
3.787,724
3.352,896
3.605,430
3.655,446
Jumlah
Et
-20,148
-70,610
-25,425
9,449
-34,805
-2,461
5,540
-18,186
16,355
5,178
7,078
MR
2,524
50,462
45,185
34,874
44,254
32,344
8,001
23,726
34,541
11,177
1,900
781,925
Moving Range Chart
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0,000
-20,000
E
UCL
1/3UCL
2/3UCL
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
-40,000
-60,000
-80,000
-100,000
LCL
1/3LCL
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Gambar Moving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk StickChamp
7.
Peramalan Produk StickOkey
Tabel Data Permintaan Stick Okey 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015
Periode
Jumlah
23 Juni - 29 Juni 2014
16.712
30 Juni - 06 Juli 2014
16.008
07 Juli - 13 Juli 2014
17.418
14 Juli - 20 Juli 2014
16.486
21 Juli - 27 Juli 2014
17.085
28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014
16.088
04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014
13.289
11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014
14.497
18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014
12.218
25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014
12.562
01 September - 07 September 2014
12.724
08 September - 14 September 2014
13.783
15 September - 21 September 2014
16.038
22 September - 28 September 2014
14.930
29 September - 05 Oktober 2014
14.786
06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014
15.390
13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014
12.339
20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014
12.399
27 Oktober - 02 November 2014
12.599
03 November - 09 November 2014
12.593
10 November - 16 November 2014
12.514
17 November - 23 November 2014
12.600
24 November - 30 November 2014
12.634
01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014
12.706
08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014
16.038
15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014
14.930
22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014
14.786
29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015
15.390
05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015
18.328
12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015
18.200
Total
438.070
Penjualan Stick Okey
18.000
17.000
16.000
15.000
Jumlah
14.000
13.000
12.000
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
GambarDiagram Pencar Penjualan Stick Okey
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan StickOkey dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
1
at
bt
16.712
16.712
16.712
2
16.008
16.430,400
3
17.418
4
16.486
Ft+m
et
et^2
[PE]
16.599,360
16.261,440
-112,640
16.825,440
16.689,792
16.961,088
90,432
16.148,800
1.269,200
1.610.868,640
7,286715
16.689,664
16.689,741
16.689,587
-0,051
17.051,520
-565,520
319.812,870
3,430305
5
17.085
16.847,798
16.752,964
16.942,632
63,223
16.689,536
395,464
156.391,775
2,314685
6
16.088
16.543,879
16.669,330
16.418,428
-83,634
17.005,855
-917,855
842.457,801
5,705215
7
13.289
15.241,927
16.098,369
14.385,485
-570,961
16.334,794
-3.045,794
9.276.861,090
22,91966
8
14.497
14.943,956
15.636,604
14.251,308
-461,765
13.814,524
682,476
465.773,491
4,707705
9
12.218
13.853,574
14.923,392
12.783,756
-713,212
13.789,543
-1.571,543
2.469.747,401
12,86252
10
12.562
13.336,944
14.288,813
12.385,075
-634,579
12.070,544
491,456
241.529,000
3,912243
11
12.724
13.091,766
13.809,994
12.373,538
-478,819
11.750,496
973,504
947.710,038
7,650927
12
13.783
13.368,260
13.633,300
13.103,220
-176,693
11.894,719
1.888,281
3.565.605,135
13,70007
13
16.038
14.436,156
13.954,442
14.917,870
321,143
12.926,527
3.111,473
9.681.264,230
19,40063
14
14.930
14.633,694
14.226,143
15.041,245
271,701
15.239,013
-309,013
95.489,034
2,069745
15
14.786
14.694,616
14.413,532
14.975,700
187,389
15.312,946
-526,946
277.672,087
3,563817
16
15.390
14.972,770
14.637,227
15.308,313
223,695
15.163,089
226,911
51.488,602
1,474405
17
12.339
13.919,262
14.350,041
13.488,483
-287,186
15.532,008
-3.193,008
10.195.300,088
25,87736
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan StickOkey dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)
Periode
Xt
S't
S''t
at
bt
Ft+m
et
et^2
18
12.399
13.311,157
13.934,487
12.687,827
-415,553
13.201,297
-802,297
643.680,476
19
12.599
13.026,294
13.571,210
12.481,378
-363,277
12.272,274
326,726
106.749,879
20
12.593
12.852,976
13.283,916
12.422,036
-287,293
12.118,101
474,899
225.529,060
21
12.514
12.717,386
13.057,304
12.377,468
-226,612
12.134,743
379,257
143.835,872
22
12.600
12.670,432
12.902,555
12.438,309
-154,749
12.150,856
449,144
201.730,333
23
12.634
12.655,859
12.803,877
12.507,841
-98,679
12.283,560
350,440
122.808,194
24
12.706
12.675,915
12.752,692
12.599,138
-51,185
12.409,162
296,838
88.112,798
25
16.038
14.020,749
13.259,915
14.781,583
507,223
12.547,953
3.490,047
12.180.428,062
26
14.930
14.384,449
13.709,729
15.059,169
449,813
15.288,806
-358,806
128.741,746
27
14.786
14.545,069
14.043,865
15.046,273
334,136
15.508,982
-722,982
522.702,972
28
15.390
14.883,041
14.379,535
15.386,547
335,671
15.380,409
9,591
91,987
29
18.328
16.261,025
15.132,131
17.389,919
752,596
15.722,218
2.605,782
6.790.099,832
30
18.200
17.036,615
15.893,925
18.179,305
761,793
18.142,515
57,485
3.304,525
2.045.192,901
MSE
Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stick Okey dengan
Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt
Periode
Xt
St
Bt
Ft
Et
Et^2
1
16.712
15.876,4
0
2
16.008
16.001,42
12,502 15.876,400
6,580
43,296
3
17.418 17.347,796 145,889 16.013,922
70,204 4.928,602
4
16.486 16.536,384
50,159 17.493,685
-50,384 2.538,547
5
17.085 17.060,077
97,512 16.586,543
24,923
621,156
6
16.088 16.141,479
-4,099 17.157,589
-53,479 2.860,003
7
13.289 13.431,419 -274,695 16.137,380 -142,419 20.283,172
8
14.497 14.429,986 -147,369 13.156,724
67,014 4.490,876
9
12.218 12.321,231 -343,508 14.282,617 -103,231 10.656,639
10
12.562 12.532,786 -288,002 11.977,723
29,214
853,458
11
12.724 12.700,039 -242,477 12.244,784
23,961
574,130
12
13.783 13.716,728 -116,560 12.