2017 GH Sesi 7 LL Climate Change and Health
Climate change
and health
•
•
•
Archipelago (17,500 islands, land area 38% or 2 km2,
sea area 62% or 3.1 km2)
Coastal line 81,000 km
Sixty five percent of the population living in coastal area
VULNERABILITY
• Located in the ring of fire
• Large forest area threatened by deforestation and forest
fire
• Extreme weather
– drought and flood
– cyclone
• Sea level rise
– coral bleaching
– sinking islands
• Fragile ecosystem
– land slide
– peat (gambut)
– biodiversity
NCCC (National Council on Climate Change)
•
Mainstreaming policy on climate change in sector and district.
•
Low-Emission Sustainable Development (Energy, Industry,
Forestry, and Agriculture)
•
Information, assessment and mechanism on arrangement and
carbon market.
•
Programming communication, information, and education
regarding to climate change in Indonesia
•
Monitoring and evaluating on implementation of the policy
•
Utilize Bali Action Plan in various International negotiations
•
Enhance Clean Development Mechanism Commission
THE SHRINKING FOREST COVER
IN INDONESIA
162 Million Ha
(1950)
119 Million Ha
(1985)
100 Million Ha
(1997)
1982
WPC III
Bali
Forest Cover
1992
WPC IV
Caracas
98 Million Ha
(2000)
2003
WPC V
Durban
90 Million Ha
(2010)
2010
WPC VI
XXX
WATER RESOURCE CONSERVATION
Dark Red-Highly critical Red- Critical Yellow-Adequate Light Green-Very adequate
Green-Good Dark Green-Excellent
FOOD
SECURITY
LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY
BIODIVERSITY HOT SPOT
Climate change has already
affected biodiversity, and is most
likely to continue to affect
biodiversity on a greater scale.
There is a danger that certain
measures to mitigate climate
change such as increasing forest
plantations and biofuel production
may contribute to more
biodiversity degradation
HEAT
HEAT STRESS
INJURIES
MICROBIAL
REPLICATION
INFECTIVITY
HUMIDITY
RAINFALL
CLIMATE
CHANGE
INCREASED
SURFACE WATER
FLOOD
WINDS
DUST
DROUGHT
MELIODOSIS,
MENINGITIS
INFECTIVITY
FAMINE, HUNGER
SOCIAL DISRUPTION
VECTORIAL
CAPACITY
CARDIORESPIRATORY
PROBLEMS
UNDERNUTRITION
Pathways from Driving Forces to
Potential Health Impacts
Corvalan et al., 2003
Direct Effects of Climate Change
on Vector-borne Disease
• Climate change has the potential to
– Increase range or abundance of animal
reservoirs and/or arthropod vectors
• (e.g., Malaria, Schistosomiasis, Lyme)
– Enhance transmission
• (e.g., West Nile virus and other arboviruses)
– Increase importation of vectors or pathogens
• (e.g., Dengue, Chikungunya, West Nile virus)
– Increase animal disease risk and potential
human risk
• (e.g., Trypanosomiasis)
Greer et al., 2008
Vector Survival
• Direct effects of temperature on mortality
rates*
• Temperature effects on development: at low
temperatures, lifecycle lengthens and
mortality outstrips fecundity*
* Non-linear
(quadratic)
relationships
with temperature
Tsetse mortality,
Rogers and Randolph, 2003
Summary of Climate Change
Effects
• Climate change has the potential to
– Increase range or abundance of animal reservoirs
and/or arthropod vectors
• Lyme, Malaria, Schistosomiasis
– Prolong transmission cycle
• Malaria, West Nile virus, and other arboviruses
– Increase importation of vectors or animal
reservoirs
• Dengue, Chikungunya, West Nile virus
– Increase animal disease risk and potential human
risk
• African trypanosomiasis
Case Study I: Malaria
Case Study I: Malaria (cont.)
• 40% world population at risk
• 500 million severely ill
• Climate sensitive disease1
Estimated incidence of clinical malaria episodes (WHO)
– No transmission where mosquitoes
cannot survive
– Anopheles: optimal adult
development 28-32ºC
– P falciparum transmission: 16-33ºC
• Highland malaria2
– Areas on the edges of endemic
regions
• Global warming El Niño3
– Outbreaks
1 Khasnis
2004
and Nettleman 2005; 2 Patz and Olson 2006; 3 Haines and Patz,
McDonald et al., 1957
Malaria Transmission Map
WHO, 2008b
Climate Impacts on Malaria
What are some of the potential direct and indirect pathways of influence?
Particularly vulnerable:
children, pregnant women
Human
Vector
Anopheles
mosquitoes
Pathogen
Plasmodium
Environment
Temperature
Water availability
Humidity
Projections for Malaria
Yang et al., 2014
Climate change and malaria
scenario
Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2005
Case Study 3: Dengue
Climate Variability and Dengue
Incidence
Aedes mosquito breeding (Argentina)1:
•
•
•
Highest abundance mean temp. 20ºC, ↑
accumulated rainfall (150 mm)
Decline egg laying monthly mean
temperature
and health
•
•
•
Archipelago (17,500 islands, land area 38% or 2 km2,
sea area 62% or 3.1 km2)
Coastal line 81,000 km
Sixty five percent of the population living in coastal area
VULNERABILITY
• Located in the ring of fire
• Large forest area threatened by deforestation and forest
fire
• Extreme weather
– drought and flood
– cyclone
• Sea level rise
– coral bleaching
– sinking islands
• Fragile ecosystem
– land slide
– peat (gambut)
– biodiversity
NCCC (National Council on Climate Change)
•
Mainstreaming policy on climate change in sector and district.
•
Low-Emission Sustainable Development (Energy, Industry,
Forestry, and Agriculture)
•
Information, assessment and mechanism on arrangement and
carbon market.
•
Programming communication, information, and education
regarding to climate change in Indonesia
•
Monitoring and evaluating on implementation of the policy
•
Utilize Bali Action Plan in various International negotiations
•
Enhance Clean Development Mechanism Commission
THE SHRINKING FOREST COVER
IN INDONESIA
162 Million Ha
(1950)
119 Million Ha
(1985)
100 Million Ha
(1997)
1982
WPC III
Bali
Forest Cover
1992
WPC IV
Caracas
98 Million Ha
(2000)
2003
WPC V
Durban
90 Million Ha
(2010)
2010
WPC VI
XXX
WATER RESOURCE CONSERVATION
Dark Red-Highly critical Red- Critical Yellow-Adequate Light Green-Very adequate
Green-Good Dark Green-Excellent
FOOD
SECURITY
LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY
BIODIVERSITY HOT SPOT
Climate change has already
affected biodiversity, and is most
likely to continue to affect
biodiversity on a greater scale.
There is a danger that certain
measures to mitigate climate
change such as increasing forest
plantations and biofuel production
may contribute to more
biodiversity degradation
HEAT
HEAT STRESS
INJURIES
MICROBIAL
REPLICATION
INFECTIVITY
HUMIDITY
RAINFALL
CLIMATE
CHANGE
INCREASED
SURFACE WATER
FLOOD
WINDS
DUST
DROUGHT
MELIODOSIS,
MENINGITIS
INFECTIVITY
FAMINE, HUNGER
SOCIAL DISRUPTION
VECTORIAL
CAPACITY
CARDIORESPIRATORY
PROBLEMS
UNDERNUTRITION
Pathways from Driving Forces to
Potential Health Impacts
Corvalan et al., 2003
Direct Effects of Climate Change
on Vector-borne Disease
• Climate change has the potential to
– Increase range or abundance of animal
reservoirs and/or arthropod vectors
• (e.g., Malaria, Schistosomiasis, Lyme)
– Enhance transmission
• (e.g., West Nile virus and other arboviruses)
– Increase importation of vectors or pathogens
• (e.g., Dengue, Chikungunya, West Nile virus)
– Increase animal disease risk and potential
human risk
• (e.g., Trypanosomiasis)
Greer et al., 2008
Vector Survival
• Direct effects of temperature on mortality
rates*
• Temperature effects on development: at low
temperatures, lifecycle lengthens and
mortality outstrips fecundity*
* Non-linear
(quadratic)
relationships
with temperature
Tsetse mortality,
Rogers and Randolph, 2003
Summary of Climate Change
Effects
• Climate change has the potential to
– Increase range or abundance of animal reservoirs
and/or arthropod vectors
• Lyme, Malaria, Schistosomiasis
– Prolong transmission cycle
• Malaria, West Nile virus, and other arboviruses
– Increase importation of vectors or animal
reservoirs
• Dengue, Chikungunya, West Nile virus
– Increase animal disease risk and potential human
risk
• African trypanosomiasis
Case Study I: Malaria
Case Study I: Malaria (cont.)
• 40% world population at risk
• 500 million severely ill
• Climate sensitive disease1
Estimated incidence of clinical malaria episodes (WHO)
– No transmission where mosquitoes
cannot survive
– Anopheles: optimal adult
development 28-32ºC
– P falciparum transmission: 16-33ºC
• Highland malaria2
– Areas on the edges of endemic
regions
• Global warming El Niño3
– Outbreaks
1 Khasnis
2004
and Nettleman 2005; 2 Patz and Olson 2006; 3 Haines and Patz,
McDonald et al., 1957
Malaria Transmission Map
WHO, 2008b
Climate Impacts on Malaria
What are some of the potential direct and indirect pathways of influence?
Particularly vulnerable:
children, pregnant women
Human
Vector
Anopheles
mosquitoes
Pathogen
Plasmodium
Environment
Temperature
Water availability
Humidity
Projections for Malaria
Yang et al., 2014
Climate change and malaria
scenario
Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2005
Case Study 3: Dengue
Climate Variability and Dengue
Incidence
Aedes mosquito breeding (Argentina)1:
•
•
•
Highest abundance mean temp. 20ºC, ↑
accumulated rainfall (150 mm)
Decline egg laying monthly mean
temperature