Make to Stock (MTS)

  Kontrak Perkuliahan Pertemuan & Materi  Penilaian  Tugas  Tugas Besar  Short quiz

  PERENCANAAN &  UTS (Pertemuan 4: 11/7)  UAS (Pertemuan 8: 21/7)

PENGENDALIAN PRODUKSI

  Referensi  Smith, Spencer B. Computer Based Production and Inventory Control, Prentice-Hall, 1989.

  TIN 4113  Vollman, et al. Manufacturing Planning & Control System, McGraw-Hill, 1997.

   Vollman, et al. Manufacturing Planning & Control for Supply Chain Management, McGraw-Hill, 2005.  Tersine, Richard J. Principle of Inventory and Materials th Management, 4 Edition, Prentice Hall, 1993.

  Lain-lain  Minimum kehadiran: 100%  Tidak melakukan kecurangan

  Course Outline (1) Course Outline (2) Materi (6 Pertemuan): Tugas (2 Pertemuan):

• Introduction to PPC & Demand forecasting (1) • Tugas 1: Perencanaan Aggregate dengan Solver • Demand forecasting (2) • Tugas 2: Disaggregasi dengan Solver • Sales & Operations Planning

  Tugas Besar (8 Pertemuan):

• MPS
• Deadline Tahap 1: Pertemuan 3 (7/7)
• Independent demand inventory models • Deadline Tahap 2: Pertemuan 5 (1
• Deadline Tahap 3: Pertemuan 7 (18/7)

  Evaluasi (2 Pertemuan):

• Deadline Final: UAS (21/7)
• UTS
• UAS

Pertemuan 1

• Outline:
• – Competitive Advantage of Manufacturing Industry – Product Positioning Strategy – Process Positioning Strategy – Definisi dan fungsi Perencanaan & Pengendalian Produksi – Struktur organisasi
• – Karakteristik Peramalan – Cakupan Peramalan – Klasifikasi Peramalan
• Referensi: – Smith, Spencer B. Computer Based Production and Inventory Control, Prentice-Hall, 1989.
• – Vollman, et al. Manufacturing Planning & Control System, McGraw-Hill, 1997.
• – Tersine, Richard J. Principle of Inventory and Materials Management, 4th Edition, Prentice Hall, 1993.

  PENGANTAR PPC – Pujawan (Professor of Supply Chain Engineering Department of Industrial Engineering – ITS).

  Course material: Introduction to Production Planning and Inventory Control.

  Beberapa Pertanyaan Competitive objectives

• Apa peran industri manufaktur dalam

  Gives Doing things RIGHT a QUALITY advantage kehidupan kita?

  Gives Doing things FAST a SPEED advantage

• Apa yang membuat sebuah industri

  Doing things ON-TIME Gives a DEPENDABILITY advantage manufaktur unggul dalam persaingan?

  Gives CHANGING what you do a FLEXIBILITY advantage

  Gives Doing things CHEAPLY a COST advantage

• Items tend to be standard
• A customer is not willing to tolerate delay in receiving the product
• Management is required to maintain stock of finished products
• Produced in a flow shop / mass production system

  MTS ATO MTO ETO Product Positioning Strategy Procurement Fabrication Assembly Delivery Make to Stock (MTS)

  Assemble-to-Order (ATO)

  Make- or Engineer-to-Order

• Produce specialty goods
• In many situations, the design of the item is part of what is purchased
• The final product is usually a combined of standard components and other components custom designed for the customer
• The manufacturer often purchases materials after the order is placed
• The customer must be willing to tolerate a long lead time<
• Product variety tend to be large, produced from standard components and sub- assemblies with a short assembly lead time.
• Options, subassemblies, and components are either produced or purchased to stock
• The customer enjoys for some customization, yet has a short wait for delivery

  Inventory Manufacture Assemble Ship Delivery Lead Time Cumulative Lead Time Purchase Manufacture Assemble Ship

  Make-to- Stock Make-to- Order Assemble- to-Order Delivery Lead Time Manufacture Assemble Inventory Ship

  Delivery Lead Time Manufacture Inventory Assemble Ship Delivery Lead Time

  Decoupling Points Vs Lead Times Variasi produk

  

V

o

lum

e

pro

du

k

  Tinggi Tinggi

  Flow shop / Mass Production

  Batch Production Job shop production

  Projects

  Specialized-skilled, More systemization, Standard facility, Lower costs

  Multi-skilled, Less systemization, Flexible facility, Higher costs

  Air mineral Kapal pesiar Process Positioning Strategy Flow Shop

  Batch Production

• The product always follows the same sequential steps of production
• Could be continuous or discrete flows
• The production process generally is arranged to minimize materials handling
• Inventory planning and control is driven by the rate of flow
• Balanced capacity of different works stations along the line is important
>Two or more products are manufactured in the same facility
• Long setup time between batch  each batch should run for several hours or days to achieve economies of scale
• Equipments tend to be more general purpose, and thus less efficient, than the flow shop

  Diskusikan: Job Shop

  Pabrik TV, Mobil, dan Kapal

• Organization of similar equipment by function • Bedakan posisinya pada spektrum Volume dan

  Variasi

• Orders may follow similar of different paths through
• Model layout apa yang digunakan? the plant, suggesting one of more dominant flows
• Bedakan strategi manufaktu>The layout is designed to support great diversity of
• Seberapa penting ramalan penjualan produk akhir flow among products and large WIP pada produk-produk terse>Many different lots could be in the production facility
• Hal-hal apa yang menjadi kinerja kritis sistem at the same time produksi terse
• Resource availability must be coordinated with order
• Dalam bentuk apa rencana produksi akan dibuat? planning
• Dalam bentuk apa inventory akan disimpan?

  Terminologies

• Production Planning and Control (PPC)
• Production Planning and Inventory Control (PPIC)
• Manufacturing Planning and Control (MPC)

  PPIC Sumber Daya Produksi:

• Bahan baku dan komponen
• Tenaga kerja
• Mesin dan peralatan

  Output:

  Proses Eksekusi / Implementasi Proses perencanaan Proses pengendalian

  Planning and Control: What decisions are involved? Why Plan? To satisfy customer demand, ensure the availability of resources

• Produk akhir
• Waste
• Material • Capacity

  Demand Resources

  Tahapan Perencanaan &amp; Pengendalian Produksi

PPC FUNCTIONS

  Resource Sales &amp; Operations Demand Planning Planning Management

• PLANNING PRODUCTION

  Front End g

  Master Production • PLANNING INVENTORIES

  in

  Scheduling

  n n la

• PLANNING CAPACITIES

  P

  Detailed Capacity Detailed Material

  rce

  Planning Planning u

  so

• AUTHORIZATION OF PRODUCTION AND PROCUREMENT

  Engine e R

  Material &amp; Capacity

  se ri

  Plans • CONTROL OF PRODUCTION, INVENTORIES AND

  rp

te CAPACITIES

n E

  Shop-floor Supplier Systems

  Systems

• STORAGE AND MOVEMENT OF MATERIALS

  Back End Vollman, et al ( 2005)

  ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE PRESIDENT PRESIDENT TREASURER SECRETARY TREASURER SECRETARY CONTROLLER

  V.P MARKETING

  V.P MANUFACTURING

  V.P PRODUCT

  V.P INDUSTRIAL CONTROLLER

  V.P MARKETING

  V.P MANUFACTURING

  V.P PRODUCT

  V.P INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING RELATIONS ENGINEERING RELATIONS MANUFACTURING PURCHASING PIC PLANT MANAGER PPIC Staff ENGINEERING MANAGER MANAGER

  MANAGER MASTER PRODUCTION

  INVENTORY STORES MANUFACTURING PURCHASING PLANT MANAGER SCHEDULLER CONTROL CONTROL MATERIAL ENGINEERING MANAGER HANDLING MANAGER

  PPC AS A LINE FUNCTION PPIC AS A STAFF FUNCTION DEALING WITH MATERIAL MOVEMENT INSIDE FACTORY

ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE

  1. PPIC is only one function in a production system. The function is not to work in

  PRESIDENT

  isolation, but it needs good cross functional

  TREASURER SECRETARY team with other functions. CONTROLLER

  V.P MARKETING

  V.PMATERIAL

  V.P MANUFACTURING

  V.P PRODUCT

  V.P INDUSTRIAL MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING RELATIONS

  2. PPIC is also an agent in a company which

PURCHASING MASTER PRODUCTION

  INVENTORY STORES MATERIAL DISTRIBUTION SCHEDULER CONTROL CONTROL HANDLING

  should foster good coordination with suppliers, subcontractors, customers, and other relevant parties within a supply chain.

  PPC AS A LINE FUNCTION DEALING WITH MATERIAL MOVEMENT INSIDE AND OUTSIDE FACTORY Bad cross functional team: Some causes Conflicts Between Functions

  Marketing team did not know the load of the Production

  We should always have enough

  system and make decisions

  inventory so that none of the

  Without consulting Production people

  customer orders are missed

  Engineering changes not

  I don’t want my machine to have

  Communicated to other more than one setup in a week. functions

  Our inventory turnover rate is too Too many changes from

  When issuing materials,

  low, we need to have our customers significantly

  warehousing people often

  inventory level reduced by 10%

  forget to input the transaction deteriorating our productivity.

  this year

  to the system Information about late

  We need to have a better delivery Material delivery from

  suppliers is not shared

  schedule from our suppliers. Too

  with other functions

  much inventory increase difficulty in managing store activities

  PPC for Networked Companies Collaborative Planning

• It is very often one company does not perform
• A new issue in production planning and

  whole PPIC functions. Rather, the functions are

  control is the emergent trend of companies

  spread over a number of different points within a doing collaborative planning. networked companies.

• For example, many multinational companies do
• This is important to make better

  strategic plan and procurement centrally, but make

  synchronisation and visibility across the supply detailed plan in a local office. chain.

  PERAMALAN

  Memprediksi masa depan...

• Hal yang sangat sulit!!!!! Every woman is frightened of a mouse.
• Berdasarkan Kategori Tingkat Keputusan
• – Tingkat Kebijakan – Tingkat Produk – Tingkat Proses – Tingkat Desain Pabrik – Tingkat Operasional
• Berdasarkan Unit Bisnis
• Forecast involves error &gt;&gt;&gt; they are usually
• – Perencanaan Keuangan – Perencanaan Pemasaran – Perencanaan Produksi – Perencanaan Penjadwalan
• Family forecast are more accurate than item
• Short-range forecasts are more accurate than
Delphi Methods New product methods

  MGM head Louts B. Mayer in 1926, to young cartoonist named Walt Disney 640k ought to be enough for anybody.

  Bill Gates, Microsoft founder, 1981 The Internet will collapse within a year. Bob Metcalf, founder of 3Com Corporation, in December 1995

  Sumber: Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry (Cook, 2006) Cakupan Peramalan

  Cakupan Peramalan

  Characteristic of Forecasts

  wrong

  forecast. Aggregate forecasts are more accurate.

  long-range forecasts • A good forecast is more than a single number.

  Extrapolation/Time Series methods Neural nets

  analisa karena diolah dengan menggunakan hukum statistik dan matematika yang lebih baku dibandingkan pendekatan kualitatif. Namun disisi lain memerlukan kecukupan data sebagai dasar perhitungan. Secara umum diklasifikasikan menjadi 2 metode yaitu:

  No No No No

  No No

  Choosing a Forecasting Method

  Objective data available? New product situation?

  Large changes in environment? Good information on relationships?

  Much data on causal variables? Major data problems?

  Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes

  No Yes

  Causal method Segmentation/Classification methods

  Klasifikasi Metode Peramalan

  42 Pendekatan Kualitatif

  terkait dengan ketersediaan data yang ada. Umum digunakan untuk peramalan item produk yang benar-benar baru. Klasifikasi lebih lanjut dari pendekatan kualitatif yaitu:

  Pendekatan Kuantitatif

• Pendapat perseorangan ahli
• Pengambilan pendapat ahli secara kelompok
• Survei pasar
• Analogi historis
• Metode delphi
>Metode proyeksi
• Metode Causal

43 Pendekatan kualitatif menawarkan flexibilitas

  44 Memiliki kelebihan terkait kehandalan dari hasil Metode Proyeksi Pola Permintaan Konstan Teknik peramalan dengan metode proyeksi adalah dengan melihat Pada klasifikasi ini permintaan berfluktuasi pada tingkat sama pola dari rangkaian waktu dari data historis kemudian sepanjang waktu. Contohnya adalah permintaan sabun dan memperpanjang pola dari data tersebut untuk didapatkan nilai pasta gigi. ekspektasi atau perkiraan dimasa depan. Pendekatan kuantitatif berhubungan erat dengan rangkaian waktu (time series). Untuk mendapatkan penjelasan terkait rangkaian waktu (time series) adalah dengan menggambarkanya kedalam sebuah grafik. Secara umum jenis dari rangkaian waktu (time series) dibagi 3 yaitu:

• Konstan • Trend • Musiman

  45

  46 Pola Permintaan dengan Kecenderungan (Trend) Pola Permintaan Bersifat Musiman Pada klasifikasi ini permintaan memiliki kecenderungan baik Permintaan mengalami siklus fluktuasi yang berulang dengan turun maupun naik secara tetap. Contohnya permintaan untuk pola tertentu. Permintaan terhadap sarung atau pupuk. produk smartphone.

  47

  48 Demand Management Where possible, calculate demand rather than forecast.

  Teknik peramalan dengan metode causal meniti beratkan pada faktor If not possible... yang mempengaruhi permintaan dan menggunakanya sebagai dasar untuk melakukan peramalan.

  Independent Demand

  (finished goods and spare parts)

  Contoh dari penerapak metode ini adalah ketika permintaan dari sebuah produk bergantung dengan harga jual produk yang A Dependent Demand bersangkutan, kemudian dari kondisi tersebut dilakukan peramalan

  (components) permintaan menggunakan harga yang direncanakan.

  B(4) C(2) D(2) E(1) D(3) F(2)

49 Examples of Production Resource Forecasts

  Forecast Units of Time Span Item Being Forecast Horizon Measure

• Product lines
• Factory capacities
• Planning for new products Dollars, tons,

  Long-Range Years

• Capital expenditures etc.
• Facility location or expansion

  Production

• R&amp;D

  Demand Sales

• Product groups

  Resource

• Department capacities

  Estimates Forecast Medium- Dollars, tons, Months • Sales planning

  Forecast Range etc.

• Production planning and budgeting
• Specific product quantities
• Machine capacities
• Planning • Purchasing Physical units

  Short-Range Weeks

• Scheduling

  of products

• Workforce levels
• Production levels
• Job assignments

Pertemuan 2 - Persiapan

• Tugas Baca:
• – Metode Peramalan:
• Simple Time Series Model:
• – Moving Average &amp; Weighted Moving Average – Exponential Smoothing – Double Exponential Smoothing (Holt’s)
• – Winter’s Method for Seasonal Prob
• – Error Forecast