NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk
(BBRI)
Masih Mampu Jaga Momentum
Company Report | May 22, 2018
Kinerja 1Q18: Laba Bersih ditopang Non-Interest Income
BBRI mencetak interest income sebesar Rp26,2 triliun (+6,4% y-y) dan net
interest income (NII) sebesar Rp18,6 triliun (+4,0% y-y). Pertumbuhan satu
digit pada interest income dan net interest income telah terjadi selama dua
kuartal terakhir di tengah tekanan terhadap loan yield. Di sisi lain laba
bersih mampu tumbuh dua digit, yakni sebesar 11,4% menjadi Rp7,4 triliun
yang ditopang oleh lonjakan 27,9% pada non-interest income.
Harapan pada Akselerasi Pertumbuhan Kredit
Pada 1Q18 pertumbuhan penyaluran kredit tercatat stabil, yakni 11,2%.
Namun segmen kredit andalan BBRI, yakni mikro dan konsumer telah
menunjukkan akselerasi dengan pertumbuhan masing-masing sebesar
16%. Tren pemulihan bertahap pada konsumsi domestik diperkirakan akan
menopang akselerasi pertumbuhan kredit BBRI pada 2018 hingga ke posisi
13,2% dari 11,4% pada 2017.
Efisiensi Beban Operasional
Kami perkirakan bahwa meskipun pertumbuhan interest income cenderung
stabil di sekitar 9% ke depannya, BBRI akan mampu mempertahankan
pertumbuhan laba bersih dua digit ke depannya. Konsistensi efisiensi
beban operasional menjadi faktor krusial. Pada 1Q18, cost to income
tercatat sebesar 39% yang lebih rendah dibandingkan cost to income
pada periode-periode sebelumnya yang di atas 40%.
Target Harga Rp3.510
Kami menggunakan asumsi forward P/B sebesar 2,1x (rata-rata 4 tahun
terakhir) untuk mendapatkan target harga pada Desember 2018. Target
harga ini mengimplikasikan P/B 2018E sebesar 2,3x. Saat ini, BBRI
diperdagangkan pada P/B 2018E sebesar 1,8x.
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk | Summary (IDR bn)
2016/12A
2017/12A
Interest Income
94,788
102,899
growth
10.9%
8.6%
Operating Revenue
84,580
92,482
Net profit
26,196
28,997
EPS (IDR)
212
235
EPS growth
3.1%
10.7%
BVPS (IDR)
1,190
1,357
Net Interest Margin
8.0%
7.6%
Loan/Deposits
87.9%
87.8%
NPL
2.0%
2.1%
ROE
20.2%
18.5%
2.8%
2.7%
ROA
18.4%
18.2%
ROIC
P/E
11.0x
15.5x
P/BV
2.0x
2.7x
DPS (IDR)
85
106
Dividend yield
3.6%
2.9%
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research
2018/12E
111,971
8.8%
102,494
33,066
268
14.0%
1,514
7.4%
89.1%
2.2%
18.7%
2.8%
18.3%
10.3x
1.8x
121
4.4%
Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia
2019/12E
122,175
9.1%
114,180
36,503
296
10.4%
1,692
7.4%
90.4%
2.1%
18.5%
2.8%
18.4%
9.3x
1.6x
133
4.8%
Buy
Dec 2018 TP (IDR)
3,510
Consensus Price (IDR)
TP to Consensus Price
vs. Last Price
Shares data
Last Price (IDR)
Price date as of
52 wk range (Hi/Lo)
Free float (%)
Outstanding sh.(mn)
Market Cap (IDR bn)
Market Cap (USD mn)
Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)
Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)
Foreign Ownership
Finance
Bank
Bloomberg
Reuters
3,820
-8.1%
+27.2%
2,760
May 21, 2018
3,920 / 2,750
43.2
123,346
340,434
24,001
117.43
406.28
25.2%
BBRI IJ
BBRI.JK
Raphon Prima
+62 21 797 6202, ext:214
raphon@nhsec.co.id
Share Price Performance
YTD
1M
Abs. Ret. -24.2% -22.9%
Rel. Ret. -14.4% -13.8%
3M
12M
-27.4% -5.6%
-13.7% -5.4%
Company Report
May 22, 2018
Sekilas tentang BBRI
BBRI merupakan bank milik pemerintah Indonesia dengan aset terbesar di Indonesia. BBRI
didukung oleh jaringan terluas yang menjangkau wilayah perkotaan hingga ke pelosok
pedesaan terpencil. BBRI menyalurkan sekitar 15% dari total penyaluran kredit di
Indonesia. Sedangkan di segmen mikro dan SME, BBRI menyalurkan sekitar 32% dari total
kredit yang beredar.
Daya Saing Perbankan Indonesia di ASEAN
Industri perbankan di Indonesia menjadi prioritas investasi utama di ASEAN karena
menawarkan suku bunga kredit yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan suku bunga yang
ditawarkan bank lain di ASEAN. Hal ini merupakan faktor utama keunggulan industri
perbankan di Indonesia.
Bank di Indonesia masih mampu mempertahankan NIM di atas bank ASEAN lain meskipun
sedang menghadapi tekanan penurunan suku bunga acuan oleh bank sentral. Keunggulan
NIM ini mampu ditranslasikan menjadi ROE yang lebih tinggi.
Bank di Indonesia mampu mencetak pertumbuhan laba bersih di kisaran 10%-20% yang
mampu disaingi oleh beberapa bank di Malaysia dan Singapura, seperti UOB, OCBC, CIMB
dan Malayan Banking. Namun, tiga bank tersebut memiliki aset yang jauh lebih besar
dibandingkan dengan aset bank di Indonesia.
ASEAN Banks
Net
Interest
Margin
(LTM)
ROE
(LTM)
P/E
(LTM)
P/BV
(LTM)
Dividend
Yield
Market Cap
(USD mn)
Total Asset
(USD mn)
Net Profit
Growth
( LTM)
BBRI
BBCA
BMRI
BBNI
BBTN
24,001
38,322
22,148
9,870
2,093
82,886
55,219
82,772
52,203
19,235
11.9%
13.0%
59.4%
21.1%
14.5%
7.7%
6.1%
5.6%
5.5%
4.5%
19.6%
18.7%
14.4%
15.2%
15.2%
11.5x
22.8x
14.0x
10.0x
9.5x
2.1x
4.0x
1.9x
1.4x
1.4x
3.8%
1.2%
3.0%
3.4%
2.0%
Singapore
DBS
UOB
OCBC
56,123
36,731
40,909
387,334
268,287
340,370
8.3%
13.5%
23.2%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
9.8%
10.7%
11.2%
16.2x
13.9x
13.0x
1.5x
1.4x
1.4x
4.9%
3.4%
2.8%
Malaysia
CIMB
Malayan Banking
Hong Leong
15,686
29,896
5,478
124,711
188,433
50,939
25.6%
11.5%
5.9%
2.5%
1.9%
1.6%
9.6%
10.6%
9.8%
13.4x
15.0x
13.4x
1.3x
1.6x
1.3x
3.8%
5.1%
2.0%
Thailand
Bangkok Bank
Siam Commercial
Bank of Ayudhya
11,463
14,315
8,926
94,446
92,841
64,128
6.0%
-13.0%
8.6%
2.3%
3.3%
3.7%
8.5%
11.8%
10.7%
10.9x
10.8x
12.1x
0.9x
1.2x
1.2x
3.4%
4.1%
2.2%
Philippine
BDO Unibank
Metropolitan Bank
Philippine Island Bank
10,848
6,211
8,370
53,371
41,612
38,084
5.8%
0.7%
-3.9%
4.1%
3.8%
3.5%
9.7%
9.1%
12.4%
20.5x
14.5x
17.6x
1.9x
1.3x
2.1x
0.9%
1.2%
1.8%
Company
Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 22
Company Report
May 22, 2018
Performance Highlights
Interest Income (IDR bn)
Loan Yield, Cost of Deposit, Net Interest Margin (NIM)
Source: Company, NHKS research
Source: Company, NHKS research
Outstanding Loan (IDR bn)
Loan Composition
Source: Company, NHKS research
Source: Company, NHKS research
Deposit (IDR bn)
Deposit Composition
Source: Company, NHKS research
Source: Company, NHKS research
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 33
Company Report
May 22, 2018
Multiple Valuation
Forward P/B band | Last 4 years
Dynamic Forward P/B band | Last 4 years
Source: NHKS research
Source: NHKS research
Rating and target price update
Target Price Revision
Date
Rating
Target Price
01/03/2018
Buy
4,580 (Dec 2018)
02/08/2018
Buy
4,700 (Dec 2018)
05/22/2018
Buy
3,510 (Dec 2018)
Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg
Last Price
3,640
3,680
2,760
Consensus
3,494
3,899
3,820
vs Last Price
+25.8%
+27.7%
+27.2%
Analyst Coverage Rating
Closing and Target Price
Source: Bloomberg
Source: NHKS research
vs Consensus
+31.1%
+20.6%
-8.1%
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings
1.
2.
Period: End of year target price
Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication
Buy
: Greater than +15%
Hold
: -15% to +15%
Sell
: Less than -15%
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 44
Company Report
May 22, 2018
Summary of Financials
BBRI Summary
Last Price (IDR)
Target Price (IDR)
Analyst: Raphon Prima
May 21, 2018
Dec 2018
Rating:
2,760
3,510
Buy
INCOME STATEMENT
in IDR bn
Interest Income
Growth (% y/y)
Interes t Expens es
Net Interest Income
Net Interest Margin
Net Fee Income
Trading Income
Other Operating Income
Operating Revenue
Opera ti ng Expens es
Pre-provisioning OP (PPOP)
Provi s i on for Impa i rment
EBT
Income Ta x
Non-control l i ng Interes t
Net Profit
Growth (% y/y)
2016/12A
94,788
10.9%
(27,212)
67,576
8.0%
9,223
205
7,576
84,580
(36,915)
47,664
(13,700)
33,974
(7,746)
(32)
26,196
3.1%
2017/12A
102,899
8.6%
(29,894)
73,005
7.6%
10,442
1,020
8,015
92,482
(38,681)
53,801
(16,995)
37,022
(7,978)
(48)
28,997
10.7%
2018/12E
111,971
8.8%
(31,565)
80,406
7.4%
11,790
1,135
9,162
102,494
(42,072)
60,422
(18,034)
42,560
(9,415)
(79)
33,066
14.0%
2019/12E
122,175
9.1%
(32,601)
89,574
7.4%
13,135
1,264
10,207
114,180
(47,312)
66,868
(20,200)
46,897
(10,349)
(46)
36,503
10.4%
2018/12E
25,212
146,723
800,630
209,143
24,812
51,936
1,257,425
939,515
82,487
48,727
1,070,728
6,167
163,846
186,696
2019/12E
25,212
166,876
908,583
214,203
25,024
59,069
1,397,289
1,052,746
89,712
46,178
1,188,635
6,167
185,468
208,654
PROFITABILITY & STABILITY
ROE
ROA
ROIC
Opera ti ng ROA
Pre-Provi s i on ROA
Non-Interes t Income/Op. Rev
Cos t/Income
Ca s h Di vi dend (IDR bn)
Di vi dend Yi el d (%)
Pa yout Ra ti o (%)
Equi ty/As s ets
Loa n/Depos i ts
Loa n/As s ets
NPL
Loa n Los s Res erves /Loa ns
Depos i ts /Li a bi l i ti es
CASA/Depos i ts
Ti me Depos i ts /Depos i ts
Pa r Va l ue (IDR)
Tota l Sha res (mn)
Sha re Pri ce (IDR)
Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn)
BALANCE SHEET
in IDR bn
Ca s h
Placement in Banks
Net Loan
Investments
Fixed Assets
Other Assets
Total Assets
Depos i ts
Borrowi ng
Other l i a bi l i ti es
Total Liabilities
Ca pi ta l Stock
Reta i ned Ea rni ngs
Shareholders' Equity
2016/12A
25,212
144,801
640,614
136,361
24,515
32,141
1,003,644
754,526
70,349
31,956
856,832
6,167
125,309
146,813
2017/12A
25,212
119,187
709,232
208,321
24,746
39,964
1,126,248
841,656
78,739
38,505
958,901
6,167
143,828
167,347
2016/12A
26,196
8,225
7,130
29,072
(82,326)
(96,156)
(7,619)
85,531
92,651
25,566
2017/12A
28,997
13,523
11,943
30,708
(75,916)
(112,899)
(10,478)
87,130
79,647
(2,544)
2018/12E
33,066
10,399
8,848
4,096
(97,604)
(102,609)
(13,048)
97,858
90,515
(7,998)
%
74.8
13.5
4.2
1.6
2018/12E
18.7%
2.8%
18.3%
8.6%
5.1%
21.6%
41.0%
14,880
4.4%
45.0%
14.8%
89.1%
66.6%
2.2%
4.3%
87.7%
59.2%
40.8%
250
123,346
2,760
340.4
2019/12E
18.5%
2.8%
18.4%
8.6%
5.0%
21.6%
41.4%
16,426
4.8%
45.0%
14.9%
90.4%
68.1%
2.1%
4.6%
88.6%
59.4%
40.6%
250
123,346
2,760
340.4
Shareholders
Republ i c of Indones i a
FMR LLC
Bl a ckrock
Va ngua rd Group
2016/12A 2017/12A
11.0x
15.5x
2.0x
2.7x
3.4x
4.9x
3.5x
1.4x
3.9x
5.4x
7.0x
9.4x
333,542
503,520
18.3%
15.0%
7.4%
6.2%
212
235
212
235
1,190
1,357
686
750
85
106
Pri ce /Ea rni ngs
Pri ce /Book Va l ue
Pri ce/Op. Revenue
PE/EPS Growth
EV/Opera ti ng Revenue
EV/PPOP
EV (IDR bn)
Op. Revenue CAGR (3-Yr)
EPS CAGR (3-Yr)
Ba s i c EPS (IDR)
Di l uted EPS (IDR)
BVPS (IDR)
Op. Revenue PS (IDR)
DPS (IDR)
2018/12E
10.3x
1.8x
3.3x
0.7x
3.9x
6.6x
399,358
13.2%
9.2%
268
268
1,514
831
121
2019/12E
9.3x
1.6x
3.0x
0.9x
3.6x
6.1x
407,220
10.5%
11.7%
296
296
1,692
926
133
2018/12E
2019/12E
DCF, RIM & EVA
2019/12E
36,503
8,587
7,002
15,255
(114,955)
(121,811)
(14,880)
113,231
105,911
(646)
OWNERSHIP
By Geography
Indones i a
Uni ted Sta tes
Luxembourg
Bri ta i n
2017/12A
18.5%
2.7%
18.2%
8.7%
5.1%
21.1%
41.8%
13,048
2.9%
45.0%
14.9%
87.8%
65.6%
2.1%
4.1%
87.8%
59.0%
41.0%
250
123,346
3,640
449.0
VALUATION INDEX
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
in IDR bn
Net Income
Deprec & Provi s i on
Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l
CFO
Net Cha nges i n Loa n
CFI
Di vi dends Pa i d
Net Cha nges i n Depos i t
CFF
Net Changes in Cash
2016/12A
20.2%
2.8%
18.4%
9.0%
5.1%
20.1%
43.6%
10,478
3.6%
40.0%
14.6%
87.9%
66.1%
2.0%
3.4%
88.1%
59.1%
40.9%
250
123,346
2,335
288.0
%
56.8
1.9
1.5
1.5
DCF (IDR bn)
NOPAT
+Depr./Amor.
-Chg. i n Loa n
-Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p.
(Unl evered) FCFF
WACC
Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.)
Cos t of Equi ty (COE)
WACC (%)
RIM
Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%)
Res i dua l Income (IDR bn)
Equi ty Cha rge
EVA
Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn)
ROIC-WACC (%)
EVA (IDR bn)
2016/12A
2017/12A
36,797
8,225
(82,326)
7,130
(30,174)
42,208
13,523
(75,916)
11,943
(8,242)
47,056
10,399
(97,604)
8,848
(31,301)
52,112
8,587
(114,955)
7,002
(47,253)
8.9%
10.5%
10.2%
7.1%
11.9%
11.2%
8.0%
12.7%
11.8%
8.3%
13.0%
12.1%
12.6%
14,262
11,934
7.8%
11,479
17,518
7.0%
11,785
21,281
6.5%
12,163
24,339
181,728
10.0%
18,206
217,162
8.2%
17,868
246,087
7.3%
18,048
269,183
7.3%
19,657
DISCLAIMER
This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This
report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling
offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors. Although the information here is obtained
from reliable sources, it accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, respective employees,
and agents disclaim any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action, losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person
as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for
errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom.
All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 55
(BBRI)
Masih Mampu Jaga Momentum
Company Report | May 22, 2018
Kinerja 1Q18: Laba Bersih ditopang Non-Interest Income
BBRI mencetak interest income sebesar Rp26,2 triliun (+6,4% y-y) dan net
interest income (NII) sebesar Rp18,6 triliun (+4,0% y-y). Pertumbuhan satu
digit pada interest income dan net interest income telah terjadi selama dua
kuartal terakhir di tengah tekanan terhadap loan yield. Di sisi lain laba
bersih mampu tumbuh dua digit, yakni sebesar 11,4% menjadi Rp7,4 triliun
yang ditopang oleh lonjakan 27,9% pada non-interest income.
Harapan pada Akselerasi Pertumbuhan Kredit
Pada 1Q18 pertumbuhan penyaluran kredit tercatat stabil, yakni 11,2%.
Namun segmen kredit andalan BBRI, yakni mikro dan konsumer telah
menunjukkan akselerasi dengan pertumbuhan masing-masing sebesar
16%. Tren pemulihan bertahap pada konsumsi domestik diperkirakan akan
menopang akselerasi pertumbuhan kredit BBRI pada 2018 hingga ke posisi
13,2% dari 11,4% pada 2017.
Efisiensi Beban Operasional
Kami perkirakan bahwa meskipun pertumbuhan interest income cenderung
stabil di sekitar 9% ke depannya, BBRI akan mampu mempertahankan
pertumbuhan laba bersih dua digit ke depannya. Konsistensi efisiensi
beban operasional menjadi faktor krusial. Pada 1Q18, cost to income
tercatat sebesar 39% yang lebih rendah dibandingkan cost to income
pada periode-periode sebelumnya yang di atas 40%.
Target Harga Rp3.510
Kami menggunakan asumsi forward P/B sebesar 2,1x (rata-rata 4 tahun
terakhir) untuk mendapatkan target harga pada Desember 2018. Target
harga ini mengimplikasikan P/B 2018E sebesar 2,3x. Saat ini, BBRI
diperdagangkan pada P/B 2018E sebesar 1,8x.
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk | Summary (IDR bn)
2016/12A
2017/12A
Interest Income
94,788
102,899
growth
10.9%
8.6%
Operating Revenue
84,580
92,482
Net profit
26,196
28,997
EPS (IDR)
212
235
EPS growth
3.1%
10.7%
BVPS (IDR)
1,190
1,357
Net Interest Margin
8.0%
7.6%
Loan/Deposits
87.9%
87.8%
NPL
2.0%
2.1%
ROE
20.2%
18.5%
2.8%
2.7%
ROA
18.4%
18.2%
ROIC
P/E
11.0x
15.5x
P/BV
2.0x
2.7x
DPS (IDR)
85
106
Dividend yield
3.6%
2.9%
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research
2018/12E
111,971
8.8%
102,494
33,066
268
14.0%
1,514
7.4%
89.1%
2.2%
18.7%
2.8%
18.3%
10.3x
1.8x
121
4.4%
Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia
2019/12E
122,175
9.1%
114,180
36,503
296
10.4%
1,692
7.4%
90.4%
2.1%
18.5%
2.8%
18.4%
9.3x
1.6x
133
4.8%
Buy
Dec 2018 TP (IDR)
3,510
Consensus Price (IDR)
TP to Consensus Price
vs. Last Price
Shares data
Last Price (IDR)
Price date as of
52 wk range (Hi/Lo)
Free float (%)
Outstanding sh.(mn)
Market Cap (IDR bn)
Market Cap (USD mn)
Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)
Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)
Foreign Ownership
Finance
Bank
Bloomberg
Reuters
3,820
-8.1%
+27.2%
2,760
May 21, 2018
3,920 / 2,750
43.2
123,346
340,434
24,001
117.43
406.28
25.2%
BBRI IJ
BBRI.JK
Raphon Prima
+62 21 797 6202, ext:214
raphon@nhsec.co.id
Share Price Performance
YTD
1M
Abs. Ret. -24.2% -22.9%
Rel. Ret. -14.4% -13.8%
3M
12M
-27.4% -5.6%
-13.7% -5.4%
Company Report
May 22, 2018
Sekilas tentang BBRI
BBRI merupakan bank milik pemerintah Indonesia dengan aset terbesar di Indonesia. BBRI
didukung oleh jaringan terluas yang menjangkau wilayah perkotaan hingga ke pelosok
pedesaan terpencil. BBRI menyalurkan sekitar 15% dari total penyaluran kredit di
Indonesia. Sedangkan di segmen mikro dan SME, BBRI menyalurkan sekitar 32% dari total
kredit yang beredar.
Daya Saing Perbankan Indonesia di ASEAN
Industri perbankan di Indonesia menjadi prioritas investasi utama di ASEAN karena
menawarkan suku bunga kredit yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan suku bunga yang
ditawarkan bank lain di ASEAN. Hal ini merupakan faktor utama keunggulan industri
perbankan di Indonesia.
Bank di Indonesia masih mampu mempertahankan NIM di atas bank ASEAN lain meskipun
sedang menghadapi tekanan penurunan suku bunga acuan oleh bank sentral. Keunggulan
NIM ini mampu ditranslasikan menjadi ROE yang lebih tinggi.
Bank di Indonesia mampu mencetak pertumbuhan laba bersih di kisaran 10%-20% yang
mampu disaingi oleh beberapa bank di Malaysia dan Singapura, seperti UOB, OCBC, CIMB
dan Malayan Banking. Namun, tiga bank tersebut memiliki aset yang jauh lebih besar
dibandingkan dengan aset bank di Indonesia.
ASEAN Banks
Net
Interest
Margin
(LTM)
ROE
(LTM)
P/E
(LTM)
P/BV
(LTM)
Dividend
Yield
Market Cap
(USD mn)
Total Asset
(USD mn)
Net Profit
Growth
( LTM)
BBRI
BBCA
BMRI
BBNI
BBTN
24,001
38,322
22,148
9,870
2,093
82,886
55,219
82,772
52,203
19,235
11.9%
13.0%
59.4%
21.1%
14.5%
7.7%
6.1%
5.6%
5.5%
4.5%
19.6%
18.7%
14.4%
15.2%
15.2%
11.5x
22.8x
14.0x
10.0x
9.5x
2.1x
4.0x
1.9x
1.4x
1.4x
3.8%
1.2%
3.0%
3.4%
2.0%
Singapore
DBS
UOB
OCBC
56,123
36,731
40,909
387,334
268,287
340,370
8.3%
13.5%
23.2%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
9.8%
10.7%
11.2%
16.2x
13.9x
13.0x
1.5x
1.4x
1.4x
4.9%
3.4%
2.8%
Malaysia
CIMB
Malayan Banking
Hong Leong
15,686
29,896
5,478
124,711
188,433
50,939
25.6%
11.5%
5.9%
2.5%
1.9%
1.6%
9.6%
10.6%
9.8%
13.4x
15.0x
13.4x
1.3x
1.6x
1.3x
3.8%
5.1%
2.0%
Thailand
Bangkok Bank
Siam Commercial
Bank of Ayudhya
11,463
14,315
8,926
94,446
92,841
64,128
6.0%
-13.0%
8.6%
2.3%
3.3%
3.7%
8.5%
11.8%
10.7%
10.9x
10.8x
12.1x
0.9x
1.2x
1.2x
3.4%
4.1%
2.2%
Philippine
BDO Unibank
Metropolitan Bank
Philippine Island Bank
10,848
6,211
8,370
53,371
41,612
38,084
5.8%
0.7%
-3.9%
4.1%
3.8%
3.5%
9.7%
9.1%
12.4%
20.5x
14.5x
17.6x
1.9x
1.3x
2.1x
0.9%
1.2%
1.8%
Company
Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 22
Company Report
May 22, 2018
Performance Highlights
Interest Income (IDR bn)
Loan Yield, Cost of Deposit, Net Interest Margin (NIM)
Source: Company, NHKS research
Source: Company, NHKS research
Outstanding Loan (IDR bn)
Loan Composition
Source: Company, NHKS research
Source: Company, NHKS research
Deposit (IDR bn)
Deposit Composition
Source: Company, NHKS research
Source: Company, NHKS research
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 33
Company Report
May 22, 2018
Multiple Valuation
Forward P/B band | Last 4 years
Dynamic Forward P/B band | Last 4 years
Source: NHKS research
Source: NHKS research
Rating and target price update
Target Price Revision
Date
Rating
Target Price
01/03/2018
Buy
4,580 (Dec 2018)
02/08/2018
Buy
4,700 (Dec 2018)
05/22/2018
Buy
3,510 (Dec 2018)
Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg
Last Price
3,640
3,680
2,760
Consensus
3,494
3,899
3,820
vs Last Price
+25.8%
+27.7%
+27.2%
Analyst Coverage Rating
Closing and Target Price
Source: Bloomberg
Source: NHKS research
vs Consensus
+31.1%
+20.6%
-8.1%
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings
1.
2.
Period: End of year target price
Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication
Buy
: Greater than +15%
Hold
: -15% to +15%
Sell
: Less than -15%
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 44
Company Report
May 22, 2018
Summary of Financials
BBRI Summary
Last Price (IDR)
Target Price (IDR)
Analyst: Raphon Prima
May 21, 2018
Dec 2018
Rating:
2,760
3,510
Buy
INCOME STATEMENT
in IDR bn
Interest Income
Growth (% y/y)
Interes t Expens es
Net Interest Income
Net Interest Margin
Net Fee Income
Trading Income
Other Operating Income
Operating Revenue
Opera ti ng Expens es
Pre-provisioning OP (PPOP)
Provi s i on for Impa i rment
EBT
Income Ta x
Non-control l i ng Interes t
Net Profit
Growth (% y/y)
2016/12A
94,788
10.9%
(27,212)
67,576
8.0%
9,223
205
7,576
84,580
(36,915)
47,664
(13,700)
33,974
(7,746)
(32)
26,196
3.1%
2017/12A
102,899
8.6%
(29,894)
73,005
7.6%
10,442
1,020
8,015
92,482
(38,681)
53,801
(16,995)
37,022
(7,978)
(48)
28,997
10.7%
2018/12E
111,971
8.8%
(31,565)
80,406
7.4%
11,790
1,135
9,162
102,494
(42,072)
60,422
(18,034)
42,560
(9,415)
(79)
33,066
14.0%
2019/12E
122,175
9.1%
(32,601)
89,574
7.4%
13,135
1,264
10,207
114,180
(47,312)
66,868
(20,200)
46,897
(10,349)
(46)
36,503
10.4%
2018/12E
25,212
146,723
800,630
209,143
24,812
51,936
1,257,425
939,515
82,487
48,727
1,070,728
6,167
163,846
186,696
2019/12E
25,212
166,876
908,583
214,203
25,024
59,069
1,397,289
1,052,746
89,712
46,178
1,188,635
6,167
185,468
208,654
PROFITABILITY & STABILITY
ROE
ROA
ROIC
Opera ti ng ROA
Pre-Provi s i on ROA
Non-Interes t Income/Op. Rev
Cos t/Income
Ca s h Di vi dend (IDR bn)
Di vi dend Yi el d (%)
Pa yout Ra ti o (%)
Equi ty/As s ets
Loa n/Depos i ts
Loa n/As s ets
NPL
Loa n Los s Res erves /Loa ns
Depos i ts /Li a bi l i ti es
CASA/Depos i ts
Ti me Depos i ts /Depos i ts
Pa r Va l ue (IDR)
Tota l Sha res (mn)
Sha re Pri ce (IDR)
Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn)
BALANCE SHEET
in IDR bn
Ca s h
Placement in Banks
Net Loan
Investments
Fixed Assets
Other Assets
Total Assets
Depos i ts
Borrowi ng
Other l i a bi l i ti es
Total Liabilities
Ca pi ta l Stock
Reta i ned Ea rni ngs
Shareholders' Equity
2016/12A
25,212
144,801
640,614
136,361
24,515
32,141
1,003,644
754,526
70,349
31,956
856,832
6,167
125,309
146,813
2017/12A
25,212
119,187
709,232
208,321
24,746
39,964
1,126,248
841,656
78,739
38,505
958,901
6,167
143,828
167,347
2016/12A
26,196
8,225
7,130
29,072
(82,326)
(96,156)
(7,619)
85,531
92,651
25,566
2017/12A
28,997
13,523
11,943
30,708
(75,916)
(112,899)
(10,478)
87,130
79,647
(2,544)
2018/12E
33,066
10,399
8,848
4,096
(97,604)
(102,609)
(13,048)
97,858
90,515
(7,998)
%
74.8
13.5
4.2
1.6
2018/12E
18.7%
2.8%
18.3%
8.6%
5.1%
21.6%
41.0%
14,880
4.4%
45.0%
14.8%
89.1%
66.6%
2.2%
4.3%
87.7%
59.2%
40.8%
250
123,346
2,760
340.4
2019/12E
18.5%
2.8%
18.4%
8.6%
5.0%
21.6%
41.4%
16,426
4.8%
45.0%
14.9%
90.4%
68.1%
2.1%
4.6%
88.6%
59.4%
40.6%
250
123,346
2,760
340.4
Shareholders
Republ i c of Indones i a
FMR LLC
Bl a ckrock
Va ngua rd Group
2016/12A 2017/12A
11.0x
15.5x
2.0x
2.7x
3.4x
4.9x
3.5x
1.4x
3.9x
5.4x
7.0x
9.4x
333,542
503,520
18.3%
15.0%
7.4%
6.2%
212
235
212
235
1,190
1,357
686
750
85
106
Pri ce /Ea rni ngs
Pri ce /Book Va l ue
Pri ce/Op. Revenue
PE/EPS Growth
EV/Opera ti ng Revenue
EV/PPOP
EV (IDR bn)
Op. Revenue CAGR (3-Yr)
EPS CAGR (3-Yr)
Ba s i c EPS (IDR)
Di l uted EPS (IDR)
BVPS (IDR)
Op. Revenue PS (IDR)
DPS (IDR)
2018/12E
10.3x
1.8x
3.3x
0.7x
3.9x
6.6x
399,358
13.2%
9.2%
268
268
1,514
831
121
2019/12E
9.3x
1.6x
3.0x
0.9x
3.6x
6.1x
407,220
10.5%
11.7%
296
296
1,692
926
133
2018/12E
2019/12E
DCF, RIM & EVA
2019/12E
36,503
8,587
7,002
15,255
(114,955)
(121,811)
(14,880)
113,231
105,911
(646)
OWNERSHIP
By Geography
Indones i a
Uni ted Sta tes
Luxembourg
Bri ta i n
2017/12A
18.5%
2.7%
18.2%
8.7%
5.1%
21.1%
41.8%
13,048
2.9%
45.0%
14.9%
87.8%
65.6%
2.1%
4.1%
87.8%
59.0%
41.0%
250
123,346
3,640
449.0
VALUATION INDEX
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
in IDR bn
Net Income
Deprec & Provi s i on
Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l
CFO
Net Cha nges i n Loa n
CFI
Di vi dends Pa i d
Net Cha nges i n Depos i t
CFF
Net Changes in Cash
2016/12A
20.2%
2.8%
18.4%
9.0%
5.1%
20.1%
43.6%
10,478
3.6%
40.0%
14.6%
87.9%
66.1%
2.0%
3.4%
88.1%
59.1%
40.9%
250
123,346
2,335
288.0
%
56.8
1.9
1.5
1.5
DCF (IDR bn)
NOPAT
+Depr./Amor.
-Chg. i n Loa n
-Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p.
(Unl evered) FCFF
WACC
Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.)
Cos t of Equi ty (COE)
WACC (%)
RIM
Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%)
Res i dua l Income (IDR bn)
Equi ty Cha rge
EVA
Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn)
ROIC-WACC (%)
EVA (IDR bn)
2016/12A
2017/12A
36,797
8,225
(82,326)
7,130
(30,174)
42,208
13,523
(75,916)
11,943
(8,242)
47,056
10,399
(97,604)
8,848
(31,301)
52,112
8,587
(114,955)
7,002
(47,253)
8.9%
10.5%
10.2%
7.1%
11.9%
11.2%
8.0%
12.7%
11.8%
8.3%
13.0%
12.1%
12.6%
14,262
11,934
7.8%
11,479
17,518
7.0%
11,785
21,281
6.5%
12,163
24,339
181,728
10.0%
18,206
217,162
8.2%
17,868
246,087
7.3%
18,048
269,183
7.3%
19,657
DISCLAIMER
This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This
report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling
offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors. Although the information here is obtained
from reliable sources, it accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, respective employees,
and agents disclaim any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action, losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person
as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for
errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom.
All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 55