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EMH
11,5
Computer technology for
waste management for
Chernobyl remediation
410
I.V. Sergienko and V.M. Yanenko
Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of Ukrainian NAS, Kiev, Ukraine
O.V. Gaiduk
Ukrainian Ministry of Emergencies, Kiev, Ukraine
N.I. Proskura
Alienation Zone Administration, Chernobyl, Ukraine, and
N.V. Yanenko
Shevchenko National University, Kiev, Ukraine
Keywords Computer technology, Risk assessment, Monitoring, Optimization
Abstract The computer technology (CT) for modelling of the ecology-economic situation in the
alienation zone (AZ) of Chenobyl is developed. It includes the databases of potentially dangerous
objects and program modules (PM) for modelling of the ecology-economic situation in the AZ.
The optimal redistribution of means, directed at resource restoration, liquidation of technogenic
pollution, the restoration of basis capital, prevention of pollution migration for bounds of the AZ
is determined by use of this model. A distinctive feature of the accounts carried out in this work is
that they allow the estimation not only of risk value, but also of levels of reserve possiblities of
various objects of the AZ. The critical values of measured parameters, at which achievement the
emergencies can occur, are also determined. The CT includes the following program modules:
geo-information system; PM for risk assessment of emergency occurences in the AZ; PM for
dynamic optimisation tasks.
Introduction
The radiation pollution of territory caused by the Chernobyl catastrophe has
resulted in the occurrence of ionising radiation sources in the Chernobyl
alienation zone (AZ). This renders long-term effects on the environment, and on
man. The efficiency of measures, connected with liquidation of consequences of
this pollution in many respects depends on the following factors:
.
validity of distribution of means on the various tasks connected with the
decreasing risk of extreme situations (ES);
.
entirety of environment state monitoring and due decision making at its
deterioration;
.
accuracy of cost-benefit analysis that allows optimal using means,
directed on decrease of ES risk on potentially dangerous objects (PDO).
Environmental Management and
Health, Vol. 11 No. 5, 2000,
pp. 410-421. # MCB University
Press, 0956-6163
The Ukrytie (OU) or ``sarcophagus'' is the most important potentially dangerous
object (PDO), where great qualities of radioactive materials are located.
For due and reasonable decision making on the ecological and technogenic
safety control of the Chernobyl AZ it is necessary to take into account all of the
above-mentioned factors. However, for their system analysis the creation of
appropriate computer technologies (CT) is necessary. They will ensure that
administrative staff have the operative information needed for working out
effective paths of technogenic safety control on the PDO and the liquidation of
ES consequences.
The necessity of development is caused now by absence of techniques
oriented on the determination of dynamic invariants, permitting the estimation
of a balance of separate regulation mechanisms of ecological systems.
Traditional methods and means of collection and data analysis about
environment state, antropogeneous load, industrial activity for a prediction of
ES occurrence risk and working out effective paths of liquidation of their
consequences, cannot ensure operations with the required information control
organisations. In this respect there is a necessity to rise the reliability of
forecasting possible ES by the creation of effective methods of information
analysis about the environment with the help of mathematical models.
The objective of this work is the creation of a similar system allowing the coordination in a uniform information field of various technological chains of
safety control on PDOs.
Computer technology for optimum control of safety in Chernobyl
alienation zone
CT for optimum safety control in AZ includes the following program modules
(PM):
(1) Geo-information system, which allows the receiving of necessary data of
ecological monitoring (allocation of radionuclides in AZ, pollution
squares belonging to a given range of radionuclide concentration, the
information about objects of economic activity and natural resources).
(2) A program module (PM) for risk account of ES occurrence in AZ,
connected with violation of ecological and technogenic safety. Risk
determination is carried out with the help of totality of the following
parameters:
.
money equivalent of funds in AZ;
.
money equivalent of funds made in AZ;
.
environment pollution level;
.
volume of production capacities ensuring binding of pollution;
.
flow of budget means directed on realisation of measures, connected
with maintenance of appropriate level of safety in AZ and
liquidation of consequences of Chernobyl catastrophe.
(3) A PM for a dynamic tasks solution. The dynamics of variables
describing ecological and technogenic situation in AZ is determined
with the help of this PM. It also permits to research the dependence on
these variables of following parameters:
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411
EMH
11,5
.
.
.
412
costs that characterise reproduction of pollution binding units,
pollution clearing units, funds and preventing of pollution migration
outside the AZ;
periods of fund wear, pollution destruction, pollution generation;
values of invested funds, capacities of pollution binding, pollution
flow outside the AZ, capacities of pollution binding.
(4) A PM for solution of the optimum control of the following tasks:
.
risk minimisation;
.
decrease of pollution level;
.
minimisation of outflow of pollution from AZ;
.
maximisation of a level of funds.
(5) A PM for solution of problems connected with using an effective means
for a support of a desirable level of ecological and technogenic safety in
AZ.
(6) A PM for risk account of diseases for AZ staff depending on ecological
situation and level of health services.
CT is intended for determination of the following variables:
(1) Optimal means distribution between various directions of economic
activity in AZ to minimise risk of technogenic and ecological ES.
(2) Dynamics of pollution and decreasing level of expending means, which
are allocated on territory rehabilitation.
(3) Optimal script of rehabilitation measures:
.
.
division of a zone into an optimal amount of sites to increase
efficiency of land rehabilitation in terms of economic activity and to
decrease danger of pollution flow outside the AZ;
determination of ranges and time intervals for decrease in pollution
in each of the allocated sites, at which the greatest efficiency of
expenses of allocated means will take place.
(4) Dependence between changes of an ecological situation and health
services level, on the one hand, and risk of AZ staff diseases, on the other
hand.
(5) Optimal dynamics of funds allocation, which are necessary for health
services support on a level, ensuring the acceptable risk value of
diseases in AZ.
The following algorithm of objective achievement is offered:
.
Determination of the optimal level of means necessary for territory
rehabilitation and decreasing total pollution level in AZ.
.
.
Division of AZ into an optimal amount of sites and determination of
pollution level with the help of geo-information systems in initial time
moment, and the territory of each.
Determination of optimal ranges of a decrease in pollution concentration
on each site appropriate to some dynamics of total decrease of pollution
level and its expense.
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413
The results of some calculations obtained with the help of CT are presented in
Figures 1-2.
The map of Sr-90 allocation in AZ is presented in Figure 1.
These data are entered into a dynamic model, which permits the solving,
prognostication and optimisation of tasks. Their results are presented in Figure
2. The curve 0 corresponds to prognostication task solution without controls.
The curve 1 corresponds to the optimisation task, connected with ES risk
minimisation. The curve 2 corresponds to the optimisation task, connected with
funds maximisation and following variables minimisation: ES risk,
environment pollution level in AZ, the outflow of pollution from AZ.
The dynamics of control actions appropriate to optimisation task solution
are presented in Figure 3.
Problems of ES risk estimation on the object ``Ukrytie''
According to generally accepted notions, nuclear energetics makes the
following demands to safety of its objects:
.
the safe construction and quality of PDO;
.
appropriate maintenance of PDO, minimising risk of emergencies;
Figure 1.
The map of Sr-90
allocation
EMH
11,5
414
Figure 2.
Results of model
experiments
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415
Figure 3.
Dynamics of controls on
time interval 1995-2010
years
.
possibility of realising the technical measures minimising negative
consequences of ES on PDO, if they still occur (Kupnyi, 1999; Kholosha
et al., 1999; Krivosheev et al., 1999).
The majority of experts working on the problem of liquidation of the Chernobyl
accident consequences consider that OU does not answer the above-mentioned
conditions and represents the greatest threat for nuclear safety among all
objects that are in the Chernobyl AZ (Kupnyi, 1999).
The following factors make the main contribution to such an unsuccessful
situation:
.
progressing wear of building constructions of OU;
.
destruction processes, proceeding in fuel-containing masses (FCM);
.
plenty of easily inflammable materials in OU that cause the threat of
fires.
Mass gush of a radioactive dust outside the OU will take place with disastrous
radiation consequences in case of ES occurrence, caused by any of the abovelisted reasons, namely:
.
disturbance of the OU shell (including the destruction of carrying
constructions and roof);
.
transition of radionuclides from the binding state to sliding dust
particles;
.
gush of aerosols.
EMH
11,5
416
The values of parameters, characterised as a state of FCM, contained in the OU,
and its shell state, are constantly varying. In these conditions the task of
decreasing the degree of uncertainty with regard to the estimation of the state
of the OU becomes of prime importance. It is due to the creation of automated
technologies of estimation and ranking of risks on the basis of methods of
mathematical modelling. In numerous works connected with various aspects of
the Chernobyl catastrophe risk estimation is based on the application of
probability theory methods. Thus the authors should meet with difficulties of
authentic probability estimation not only because of the incompleteness of the
sample, but also more often because of the complete absence of the information,
owing to the impossibility of taking measurements in some premises of the OU
which are inaccessible because of a high radiation level. Besides, there are some
methodological difficulties stipulated first of all by uniqueness of the event ±
accident on NPP, by virtue of which it is impossible to calculate probability of
the event on the basis of statistical data processing (Kupnyi, 1999; Kopchinsky,
1997; Sergienko et al., 1997).
In the works of Sergienko et al. (1997), Yanenko (1999) and Atoyev et al.
(1998) another approach to risk estimation was developed. It is based on the
methods of theory of catastrophes. The risk is estimated on a degree of
approximation of system parameters to their bifurcation values, which
characterise system transition from one state (norm) to another (catastrophe).
The realisation of this approach allows not only the estimation of the risk of ES
occurrence, but also the receiving of the quantitative characteristic of reserve
possibilities of the system and its components.
The obtained calculations allow the description of the current state of the
system by ranking the set of risks of ES occurrence into their separate links,
and by that finding the ``weakest'' link, the strengthening of which is necessary
to direct main efforts.
By using this method, the probability account of OU roof collapse will be
based on the parameters of separate elements of building construction most
sensitive to earthquakes, tornadoes and other natural cataclysms, which are
close to critical values (exhaust tower of the block ``C'', supports of beams B1
and B2, southern shields ± between axes B-C, western zone of OU).
Risk estimations of ES occurrence in a zone of alienation of
Chernobyl NPP
In work (Atoyev, 1999) on the universal deformation of the theory of
catastrophes (UDTC), the butterfly was used to research the safety of the
system subject to the effect of internal and external factors. This system,
described in a similar way, has three steady states. First, it is characterised by
external and internal safety. Second ± by external safety (the internal safety is
broken). Third ± by full loss both internal and external safety.
We use this approach for risk estimation of ES occurrence in Chernobyl AZ.
Let us consider that the first steady state of the system corresponds to a regular
situation in AZ. Second ± occurrence of some local ES, which do not result in a
growth of radiating pollution levels outside of the AZ. Third ± ES occurrence
which results in growth of radiating pollution level outside of AZ.
Let us base this on representations (Kupnyi, 1999) that the threat of AZ
safety disturbance is connected on the one hand with a state of elements of
building constructions in the OU (parameter A), and on the other hand, with
destruction processes, proceeding in FCM (parameter B).
The safety level also depends on flows of radionuclides from different
sources in the AZ territory, which are transferred by water, air, biogenic and
technogenic paths (parameter C) (Kholosha et al., 1999). Let us suppose that the
level of these flows depends on a state of various protective systems. They are
the dams, technical devices for preventing migration of pollution outside the
AZ, fire-prevention appliances and systems of radioecological monitoring.
The human factor also influence the safety level. By estimating this we
should take into account the level of professional abilities of staff (which means
that AZ workers have passed careful professional selection) and the social
component (parameter D).
According to Atoyev (1999) safety levels (X) is described by the following
equation:
dX
1
X 5 AX 3 BX 2 CX D;
dt
We shall estimate the coefficient A with the help of parameters characterising
the state of following parameters:
.
a support of beams B1 and B2;
.
a western zone of AZ;
.
a southern shields between axes B-C;
.
exhaust tower of the block ``C'' (Kupnyi, 1999; Krivosheev et al., 1999).
The observations of appropriate block offsets can help us to determine these
parameters. For instance, the risk destruction was calculated in Kupnyi (1999)
for building constructions of the OU's ``sensitive'' zones. This result also can be
used for an estimation of the parameter A.
The observation of parameters, characterising a current state of FCM
congestion, radiating effect of accident consequences on staff and slowly
proceeding processes of interaction between the object and environment shall
help to estimate the coefficient B.
The first group of these parameters includes: density of neutron stream
(DNS), power of an exposition doze (PED) of
-radiation, temperature in
different premises of OU, volumetric activity of air, gushing out in vent-pipe
through by-pass of exhaust ventilating system of OU. These results are
received with the help of monitoring systems and diagnostics of OU state
(Kupnyi, 1999).
The second group includes:
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417
EMH
11,5
.
.
.
418
power of
-radiation dose in places of production in OU;
activity of air tests on - and -aerosols;
activity of water tests in premises.
The third group includes:
.
PED of
-radiation on OU roof;
.
specific activity and radionuclide structure of water tests in observant
drill-holes.
We shall estimate the coefficient C with the help of the following parameters:
(1) Radionuclide flows from different sources in AZ, which are transferred
by water (river drain, carrying out Prypyat river, a drain with filtration
waters from a reservoir-cooler), air, biogenic (migrating birds, small
and large mammals, blood-sucking mosquitoes, dragonfly and other
insects) and technogenic paths (vehicle, staff, cargoes) (Kholosha et al.,
1999).
(2) Power of various protective systems which include:
.
the system of gadolinium solution feeding in central hall of the 4th
block;
.
the dust suppression system (DSS) of the OU;
.
the system of water pumping out from the lower marks of the OU;
.
the technological system of exhaust ventilation and gas-refining;
.
the system of cooling of the underfoundation plate, dams, technical
devices for the prevention of pollution migration outside of the AZ
and radioecological monitoring in the AZ;
.
fire-prevention devices;
.
dams and other systems of flood prevention.
We shall estimate the parameter D with the help of data describing labour
payment and work conditions, adoption of new technologies and managing
methods, foreign investments, inflation level, rates of taxes, level of credits,
level of unemployment, minimum size of salary, timeliness of labour payment,
living-wage level.
The ranges of parameters which correspond to various amounts of steady
states of a polynomial (1) can be determined. Bifurcation values of parameters
can also be determined, at which there is a change of number of steady
stationary states and transition of the system from one state to another.
Let the system be at norm (state 1). There are trajectories of change of its
parameters, which pass the system at first in state 2 (local ES, not causing
pollution growth outside of AZ ), and then in state 3 (ES, which result in
pollution growth outside of AZ). Also there are trajectories immediately
passing the system from state 1 to state 3.
If the initial state of the system corresponds to state 2 or 3, the trajectories
that return the system to state 1 (normalisation of ecological-radiation
situation) can be determined. The task of optimum control can also be
formulated to minimise the time of output from crisis and resources used at it.
For risk account the algorithm (Atoyev, 1999) can be used:
(1) the values of parameters (1), adequate to current state of system, are
determined;
(2) the array of their bifurcation values is determined;
(3) the 4th dimensional vector of distance from an initial state of the system
up to surfaces, which divide parameter areas corresponding to different
number of stationary states (1) is determined;
(4) the risk value is determined as the ratio of this vector to a vector
describing appropriate distances in norm. In this case risk is determined
as follows:
RISK R 4 =Rn
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419
2
The coefficients of a polynomial (1) can be determined as mean-square
deviations from norm of above-mentioned parameters.
The results of the comparative risk analysis obtained in Kholosha et al.
(1999) and with the help of the method shown are given in Tables I and II.
Here Ri and Si ± (i = A, B, C, D) accordingly risks and reserves of appropriate
protection systems in AZ. The account of parameters A, B, C, D was carried out
with the help of data (Kupnyi, 1999; Kholosha et al., 1999, Krivosheev et al.,
1999).
After analysing Tables I-II it is necessary to note that the data given in them
are obtained as a result of accounts of different techniques of risk estimation.
Some have only probability interpretation (for example risk estimation of fires),
others are based on techniques of risk estimation for the destruction of
constructions, and others take into account not only probability, but also the
significance of each potential source of ES (Kholosha et al., 1999). Therefore only
the ratio between the contributions of separate objects in AZ can be compared.
As follows from Table II, flows of radionuclides from various sources in AZ
give the greatest contribution to radiation danger, whereas the risk from
accident of building constructions in OU is much lower (Kholosha et al., 1999).
A
Research State
ES type
1
Norm
2
Norm
Transition
Transition
Transition
Transition
to
to
to
to
state
state
state
state
2
3
2
3
B
C
D
Risk Ra
Sa
Rb
Sb
Rc
Sc
Rd
Sd
0.53
0.33
0.45
0.67
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.03
0.01
0.04
0.01
0.9
1.1
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
0.08
0.07
0.09
0.08
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
Table I.
EMH
11,5
420
Technique of accounts
Index of
radiation
treat
Ra
OU building
construction
accidents
Rb
Rc
Radiation source
Western zone (earthquake of
magnitude four)
Zone of machine hall
covering contiguity to a
frame of DS on an axis B
Southern shields between
axes B-C
Exhaust tower of the block ``C''
Supports of beams B1 and B2
Rd
[2]
[11]
0.2 (0.5)
10-4
B2
0.14
0.3
0.25
0.5
0.2
0.5
±
Flows of
radionuclides from
different sources
Others
Table II.
[1]
Transport
Water
transferring
Atmospheric
transferring
Fires
Floods
Earthquakes
Tornadoes
10-3
±
±
B 60
[12]
±
B 0.6
1.2
0.4
0.4
0.25
0.01
±
0.05
±
±
±
The accounts performed on the basis of a technique offered in this work also
testify about prevalence of risks connected with radionuclide flows from
different sources in AZ, and also with change of capacities of various protective
systems. However, as the analysis carried out shows, risks connected with
building construction accidents in the OU are also great.
A distinctive feature of the accounts carried out in this work is that they
allow the estimation not only of risk value, but also of the levels of reserve
possibilities of various objects in AZ, and in addition they determine critical
values of measured parameters, at which emergencies can occur.
The offered approach permits not only the ranking of various objects in the
AZ by their contribution to formation of emergencies, but also the estimation risk
dependence on parameters characterising social sphere (social intensity in AZ).
References
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factors on risk of social shocks'', Proceedings of the 9th Annual Conference ``Risk Analysis:
Facing the New Millennium'', Rotterdam, 10-13 October, pp. 650-53.
Atoyev, K., Yanenko, V. and Rykhtovsky, V. (1998),``Quantitative assessment of efficacy of social
polic'', Proceedings of the Annual Conference``Risk Analysis: Opening the Process'', Paris,
October.
Kholosha, V.I. et al. (1999), ``Radiation treat of alienation zone objects'', Chernobyl Problems (in
Russian), Vol. 5, pp. 23-34.
Kopchinsky, G.A. (1997), ``The analysis of object `Ukrytie' safety, prognosis estimations of
situation development'', Proceedings of the 2nd International Scientific and Technical
Conference, Devoted to the 10th Anniversary of Completion of Building Works on the
Object ``Ukrytie'' (in Russian), Slavutich, pp. 68-78.
Krivosheev, P.I., Sokolov, A.P. and Klyuchnikov, A.A. (1999), ``Conversion of the object `Ukrytie'
in the ecologically safe system. Main rules of the strategy. State and perspectives'',
Chernobyl Problems (in Russian), Vol. 5, pp. 35-45.
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(in Russian), Vol. 5, pp. 8-18.
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Facing the New Millenium'', Rotterdam, 10-13 October, pp. 650-3.
CT for waste
management
421
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p ro m o t e t h e ir o wn re s e a rch a n d t h a t o f t h e ir o rg a n is a t io n / in s t it u t io n ;
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EMH
11,5
Computer technology for
waste management for
Chernobyl remediation
410
I.V. Sergienko and V.M. Yanenko
Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of Ukrainian NAS, Kiev, Ukraine
O.V. Gaiduk
Ukrainian Ministry of Emergencies, Kiev, Ukraine
N.I. Proskura
Alienation Zone Administration, Chernobyl, Ukraine, and
N.V. Yanenko
Shevchenko National University, Kiev, Ukraine
Keywords Computer technology, Risk assessment, Monitoring, Optimization
Abstract The computer technology (CT) for modelling of the ecology-economic situation in the
alienation zone (AZ) of Chenobyl is developed. It includes the databases of potentially dangerous
objects and program modules (PM) for modelling of the ecology-economic situation in the AZ.
The optimal redistribution of means, directed at resource restoration, liquidation of technogenic
pollution, the restoration of basis capital, prevention of pollution migration for bounds of the AZ
is determined by use of this model. A distinctive feature of the accounts carried out in this work is
that they allow the estimation not only of risk value, but also of levels of reserve possiblities of
various objects of the AZ. The critical values of measured parameters, at which achievement the
emergencies can occur, are also determined. The CT includes the following program modules:
geo-information system; PM for risk assessment of emergency occurences in the AZ; PM for
dynamic optimisation tasks.
Introduction
The radiation pollution of territory caused by the Chernobyl catastrophe has
resulted in the occurrence of ionising radiation sources in the Chernobyl
alienation zone (AZ). This renders long-term effects on the environment, and on
man. The efficiency of measures, connected with liquidation of consequences of
this pollution in many respects depends on the following factors:
.
validity of distribution of means on the various tasks connected with the
decreasing risk of extreme situations (ES);
.
entirety of environment state monitoring and due decision making at its
deterioration;
.
accuracy of cost-benefit analysis that allows optimal using means,
directed on decrease of ES risk on potentially dangerous objects (PDO).
Environmental Management and
Health, Vol. 11 No. 5, 2000,
pp. 410-421. # MCB University
Press, 0956-6163
The Ukrytie (OU) or ``sarcophagus'' is the most important potentially dangerous
object (PDO), where great qualities of radioactive materials are located.
For due and reasonable decision making on the ecological and technogenic
safety control of the Chernobyl AZ it is necessary to take into account all of the
above-mentioned factors. However, for their system analysis the creation of
appropriate computer technologies (CT) is necessary. They will ensure that
administrative staff have the operative information needed for working out
effective paths of technogenic safety control on the PDO and the liquidation of
ES consequences.
The necessity of development is caused now by absence of techniques
oriented on the determination of dynamic invariants, permitting the estimation
of a balance of separate regulation mechanisms of ecological systems.
Traditional methods and means of collection and data analysis about
environment state, antropogeneous load, industrial activity for a prediction of
ES occurrence risk and working out effective paths of liquidation of their
consequences, cannot ensure operations with the required information control
organisations. In this respect there is a necessity to rise the reliability of
forecasting possible ES by the creation of effective methods of information
analysis about the environment with the help of mathematical models.
The objective of this work is the creation of a similar system allowing the coordination in a uniform information field of various technological chains of
safety control on PDOs.
Computer technology for optimum control of safety in Chernobyl
alienation zone
CT for optimum safety control in AZ includes the following program modules
(PM):
(1) Geo-information system, which allows the receiving of necessary data of
ecological monitoring (allocation of radionuclides in AZ, pollution
squares belonging to a given range of radionuclide concentration, the
information about objects of economic activity and natural resources).
(2) A program module (PM) for risk account of ES occurrence in AZ,
connected with violation of ecological and technogenic safety. Risk
determination is carried out with the help of totality of the following
parameters:
.
money equivalent of funds in AZ;
.
money equivalent of funds made in AZ;
.
environment pollution level;
.
volume of production capacities ensuring binding of pollution;
.
flow of budget means directed on realisation of measures, connected
with maintenance of appropriate level of safety in AZ and
liquidation of consequences of Chernobyl catastrophe.
(3) A PM for a dynamic tasks solution. The dynamics of variables
describing ecological and technogenic situation in AZ is determined
with the help of this PM. It also permits to research the dependence on
these variables of following parameters:
CT for waste
management
411
EMH
11,5
.
.
.
412
costs that characterise reproduction of pollution binding units,
pollution clearing units, funds and preventing of pollution migration
outside the AZ;
periods of fund wear, pollution destruction, pollution generation;
values of invested funds, capacities of pollution binding, pollution
flow outside the AZ, capacities of pollution binding.
(4) A PM for solution of the optimum control of the following tasks:
.
risk minimisation;
.
decrease of pollution level;
.
minimisation of outflow of pollution from AZ;
.
maximisation of a level of funds.
(5) A PM for solution of problems connected with using an effective means
for a support of a desirable level of ecological and technogenic safety in
AZ.
(6) A PM for risk account of diseases for AZ staff depending on ecological
situation and level of health services.
CT is intended for determination of the following variables:
(1) Optimal means distribution between various directions of economic
activity in AZ to minimise risk of technogenic and ecological ES.
(2) Dynamics of pollution and decreasing level of expending means, which
are allocated on territory rehabilitation.
(3) Optimal script of rehabilitation measures:
.
.
division of a zone into an optimal amount of sites to increase
efficiency of land rehabilitation in terms of economic activity and to
decrease danger of pollution flow outside the AZ;
determination of ranges and time intervals for decrease in pollution
in each of the allocated sites, at which the greatest efficiency of
expenses of allocated means will take place.
(4) Dependence between changes of an ecological situation and health
services level, on the one hand, and risk of AZ staff diseases, on the other
hand.
(5) Optimal dynamics of funds allocation, which are necessary for health
services support on a level, ensuring the acceptable risk value of
diseases in AZ.
The following algorithm of objective achievement is offered:
.
Determination of the optimal level of means necessary for territory
rehabilitation and decreasing total pollution level in AZ.
.
.
Division of AZ into an optimal amount of sites and determination of
pollution level with the help of geo-information systems in initial time
moment, and the territory of each.
Determination of optimal ranges of a decrease in pollution concentration
on each site appropriate to some dynamics of total decrease of pollution
level and its expense.
CT for waste
management
413
The results of some calculations obtained with the help of CT are presented in
Figures 1-2.
The map of Sr-90 allocation in AZ is presented in Figure 1.
These data are entered into a dynamic model, which permits the solving,
prognostication and optimisation of tasks. Their results are presented in Figure
2. The curve 0 corresponds to prognostication task solution without controls.
The curve 1 corresponds to the optimisation task, connected with ES risk
minimisation. The curve 2 corresponds to the optimisation task, connected with
funds maximisation and following variables minimisation: ES risk,
environment pollution level in AZ, the outflow of pollution from AZ.
The dynamics of control actions appropriate to optimisation task solution
are presented in Figure 3.
Problems of ES risk estimation on the object ``Ukrytie''
According to generally accepted notions, nuclear energetics makes the
following demands to safety of its objects:
.
the safe construction and quality of PDO;
.
appropriate maintenance of PDO, minimising risk of emergencies;
Figure 1.
The map of Sr-90
allocation
EMH
11,5
414
Figure 2.
Results of model
experiments
CT for waste
management
415
Figure 3.
Dynamics of controls on
time interval 1995-2010
years
.
possibility of realising the technical measures minimising negative
consequences of ES on PDO, if they still occur (Kupnyi, 1999; Kholosha
et al., 1999; Krivosheev et al., 1999).
The majority of experts working on the problem of liquidation of the Chernobyl
accident consequences consider that OU does not answer the above-mentioned
conditions and represents the greatest threat for nuclear safety among all
objects that are in the Chernobyl AZ (Kupnyi, 1999).
The following factors make the main contribution to such an unsuccessful
situation:
.
progressing wear of building constructions of OU;
.
destruction processes, proceeding in fuel-containing masses (FCM);
.
plenty of easily inflammable materials in OU that cause the threat of
fires.
Mass gush of a radioactive dust outside the OU will take place with disastrous
radiation consequences in case of ES occurrence, caused by any of the abovelisted reasons, namely:
.
disturbance of the OU shell (including the destruction of carrying
constructions and roof);
.
transition of radionuclides from the binding state to sliding dust
particles;
.
gush of aerosols.
EMH
11,5
416
The values of parameters, characterised as a state of FCM, contained in the OU,
and its shell state, are constantly varying. In these conditions the task of
decreasing the degree of uncertainty with regard to the estimation of the state
of the OU becomes of prime importance. It is due to the creation of automated
technologies of estimation and ranking of risks on the basis of methods of
mathematical modelling. In numerous works connected with various aspects of
the Chernobyl catastrophe risk estimation is based on the application of
probability theory methods. Thus the authors should meet with difficulties of
authentic probability estimation not only because of the incompleteness of the
sample, but also more often because of the complete absence of the information,
owing to the impossibility of taking measurements in some premises of the OU
which are inaccessible because of a high radiation level. Besides, there are some
methodological difficulties stipulated first of all by uniqueness of the event ±
accident on NPP, by virtue of which it is impossible to calculate probability of
the event on the basis of statistical data processing (Kupnyi, 1999; Kopchinsky,
1997; Sergienko et al., 1997).
In the works of Sergienko et al. (1997), Yanenko (1999) and Atoyev et al.
(1998) another approach to risk estimation was developed. It is based on the
methods of theory of catastrophes. The risk is estimated on a degree of
approximation of system parameters to their bifurcation values, which
characterise system transition from one state (norm) to another (catastrophe).
The realisation of this approach allows not only the estimation of the risk of ES
occurrence, but also the receiving of the quantitative characteristic of reserve
possibilities of the system and its components.
The obtained calculations allow the description of the current state of the
system by ranking the set of risks of ES occurrence into their separate links,
and by that finding the ``weakest'' link, the strengthening of which is necessary
to direct main efforts.
By using this method, the probability account of OU roof collapse will be
based on the parameters of separate elements of building construction most
sensitive to earthquakes, tornadoes and other natural cataclysms, which are
close to critical values (exhaust tower of the block ``C'', supports of beams B1
and B2, southern shields ± between axes B-C, western zone of OU).
Risk estimations of ES occurrence in a zone of alienation of
Chernobyl NPP
In work (Atoyev, 1999) on the universal deformation of the theory of
catastrophes (UDTC), the butterfly was used to research the safety of the
system subject to the effect of internal and external factors. This system,
described in a similar way, has three steady states. First, it is characterised by
external and internal safety. Second ± by external safety (the internal safety is
broken). Third ± by full loss both internal and external safety.
We use this approach for risk estimation of ES occurrence in Chernobyl AZ.
Let us consider that the first steady state of the system corresponds to a regular
situation in AZ. Second ± occurrence of some local ES, which do not result in a
growth of radiating pollution levels outside of the AZ. Third ± ES occurrence
which results in growth of radiating pollution level outside of AZ.
Let us base this on representations (Kupnyi, 1999) that the threat of AZ
safety disturbance is connected on the one hand with a state of elements of
building constructions in the OU (parameter A), and on the other hand, with
destruction processes, proceeding in FCM (parameter B).
The safety level also depends on flows of radionuclides from different
sources in the AZ territory, which are transferred by water, air, biogenic and
technogenic paths (parameter C) (Kholosha et al., 1999). Let us suppose that the
level of these flows depends on a state of various protective systems. They are
the dams, technical devices for preventing migration of pollution outside the
AZ, fire-prevention appliances and systems of radioecological monitoring.
The human factor also influence the safety level. By estimating this we
should take into account the level of professional abilities of staff (which means
that AZ workers have passed careful professional selection) and the social
component (parameter D).
According to Atoyev (1999) safety levels (X) is described by the following
equation:
dX
1
X 5 AX 3 BX 2 CX D;
dt
We shall estimate the coefficient A with the help of parameters characterising
the state of following parameters:
.
a support of beams B1 and B2;
.
a western zone of AZ;
.
a southern shields between axes B-C;
.
exhaust tower of the block ``C'' (Kupnyi, 1999; Krivosheev et al., 1999).
The observations of appropriate block offsets can help us to determine these
parameters. For instance, the risk destruction was calculated in Kupnyi (1999)
for building constructions of the OU's ``sensitive'' zones. This result also can be
used for an estimation of the parameter A.
The observation of parameters, characterising a current state of FCM
congestion, radiating effect of accident consequences on staff and slowly
proceeding processes of interaction between the object and environment shall
help to estimate the coefficient B.
The first group of these parameters includes: density of neutron stream
(DNS), power of an exposition doze (PED) of
-radiation, temperature in
different premises of OU, volumetric activity of air, gushing out in vent-pipe
through by-pass of exhaust ventilating system of OU. These results are
received with the help of monitoring systems and diagnostics of OU state
(Kupnyi, 1999).
The second group includes:
CT for waste
management
417
EMH
11,5
.
.
.
418
power of
-radiation dose in places of production in OU;
activity of air tests on - and -aerosols;
activity of water tests in premises.
The third group includes:
.
PED of
-radiation on OU roof;
.
specific activity and radionuclide structure of water tests in observant
drill-holes.
We shall estimate the coefficient C with the help of the following parameters:
(1) Radionuclide flows from different sources in AZ, which are transferred
by water (river drain, carrying out Prypyat river, a drain with filtration
waters from a reservoir-cooler), air, biogenic (migrating birds, small
and large mammals, blood-sucking mosquitoes, dragonfly and other
insects) and technogenic paths (vehicle, staff, cargoes) (Kholosha et al.,
1999).
(2) Power of various protective systems which include:
.
the system of gadolinium solution feeding in central hall of the 4th
block;
.
the dust suppression system (DSS) of the OU;
.
the system of water pumping out from the lower marks of the OU;
.
the technological system of exhaust ventilation and gas-refining;
.
the system of cooling of the underfoundation plate, dams, technical
devices for the prevention of pollution migration outside of the AZ
and radioecological monitoring in the AZ;
.
fire-prevention devices;
.
dams and other systems of flood prevention.
We shall estimate the parameter D with the help of data describing labour
payment and work conditions, adoption of new technologies and managing
methods, foreign investments, inflation level, rates of taxes, level of credits,
level of unemployment, minimum size of salary, timeliness of labour payment,
living-wage level.
The ranges of parameters which correspond to various amounts of steady
states of a polynomial (1) can be determined. Bifurcation values of parameters
can also be determined, at which there is a change of number of steady
stationary states and transition of the system from one state to another.
Let the system be at norm (state 1). There are trajectories of change of its
parameters, which pass the system at first in state 2 (local ES, not causing
pollution growth outside of AZ ), and then in state 3 (ES, which result in
pollution growth outside of AZ). Also there are trajectories immediately
passing the system from state 1 to state 3.
If the initial state of the system corresponds to state 2 or 3, the trajectories
that return the system to state 1 (normalisation of ecological-radiation
situation) can be determined. The task of optimum control can also be
formulated to minimise the time of output from crisis and resources used at it.
For risk account the algorithm (Atoyev, 1999) can be used:
(1) the values of parameters (1), adequate to current state of system, are
determined;
(2) the array of their bifurcation values is determined;
(3) the 4th dimensional vector of distance from an initial state of the system
up to surfaces, which divide parameter areas corresponding to different
number of stationary states (1) is determined;
(4) the risk value is determined as the ratio of this vector to a vector
describing appropriate distances in norm. In this case risk is determined
as follows:
RISK R 4 =Rn
CT for waste
management
419
2
The coefficients of a polynomial (1) can be determined as mean-square
deviations from norm of above-mentioned parameters.
The results of the comparative risk analysis obtained in Kholosha et al.
(1999) and with the help of the method shown are given in Tables I and II.
Here Ri and Si ± (i = A, B, C, D) accordingly risks and reserves of appropriate
protection systems in AZ. The account of parameters A, B, C, D was carried out
with the help of data (Kupnyi, 1999; Kholosha et al., 1999, Krivosheev et al.,
1999).
After analysing Tables I-II it is necessary to note that the data given in them
are obtained as a result of accounts of different techniques of risk estimation.
Some have only probability interpretation (for example risk estimation of fires),
others are based on techniques of risk estimation for the destruction of
constructions, and others take into account not only probability, but also the
significance of each potential source of ES (Kholosha et al., 1999). Therefore only
the ratio between the contributions of separate objects in AZ can be compared.
As follows from Table II, flows of radionuclides from various sources in AZ
give the greatest contribution to radiation danger, whereas the risk from
accident of building constructions in OU is much lower (Kholosha et al., 1999).
A
Research State
ES type
1
Norm
2
Norm
Transition
Transition
Transition
Transition
to
to
to
to
state
state
state
state
2
3
2
3
B
C
D
Risk Ra
Sa
Rb
Sb
Rc
Sc
Rd
Sd
0.53
0.33
0.45
0.67
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.03
0.01
0.04
0.01
0.9
1.1
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
0.08
0.07
0.09
0.08
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
Table I.
EMH
11,5
420
Technique of accounts
Index of
radiation
treat
Ra
OU building
construction
accidents
Rb
Rc
Radiation source
Western zone (earthquake of
magnitude four)
Zone of machine hall
covering contiguity to a
frame of DS on an axis B
Southern shields between
axes B-C
Exhaust tower of the block ``C''
Supports of beams B1 and B2
Rd
[2]
[11]
0.2 (0.5)
10-4
B2
0.14
0.3
0.25
0.5
0.2
0.5
±
Flows of
radionuclides from
different sources
Others
Table II.
[1]
Transport
Water
transferring
Atmospheric
transferring
Fires
Floods
Earthquakes
Tornadoes
10-3
±
±
B 60
[12]
±
B 0.6
1.2
0.4
0.4
0.25
0.01
±
0.05
±
±
±
The accounts performed on the basis of a technique offered in this work also
testify about prevalence of risks connected with radionuclide flows from
different sources in AZ, and also with change of capacities of various protective
systems. However, as the analysis carried out shows, risks connected with
building construction accidents in the OU are also great.
A distinctive feature of the accounts carried out in this work is that they
allow the estimation not only of risk value, but also of the levels of reserve
possibilities of various objects in AZ, and in addition they determine critical
values of measured parameters, at which emergencies can occur.
The offered approach permits not only the ranking of various objects in the
AZ by their contribution to formation of emergencies, but also the estimation risk
dependence on parameters characterising social sphere (social intensity in AZ).
References
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factors on risk of social shocks'', Proceedings of the 9th Annual Conference ``Risk Analysis:
Facing the New Millennium'', Rotterdam, 10-13 October, pp. 650-53.
Atoyev, K., Yanenko, V. and Rykhtovsky, V. (1998),``Quantitative assessment of efficacy of social
polic'', Proceedings of the Annual Conference``Risk Analysis: Opening the Process'', Paris,
October.
Kholosha, V.I. et al. (1999), ``Radiation treat of alienation zone objects'', Chernobyl Problems (in
Russian), Vol. 5, pp. 23-34.
Kopchinsky, G.A. (1997), ``The analysis of object `Ukrytie' safety, prognosis estimations of
situation development'', Proceedings of the 2nd International Scientific and Technical
Conference, Devoted to the 10th Anniversary of Completion of Building Works on the
Object ``Ukrytie'' (in Russian), Slavutich, pp. 68-78.
Krivosheev, P.I., Sokolov, A.P. and Klyuchnikov, A.A. (1999), ``Conversion of the object `Ukrytie'
in the ecologically safe system. Main rules of the strategy. State and perspectives'',
Chernobyl Problems (in Russian), Vol. 5, pp. 35-45.
Kupnyi, V.I. (1999), ```Object ``Ukrytie': state and perspectives of conversion'', Chernobyl Problems
(in Russian), Vol. 5, pp. 8-18.
Sergienko, I.V., Yanenko, V.M. and Atoyev, K.L. (1997), ``The general concept of risk control of
ecological, technogenic and sociogenic catastrophes'', Kibernetika i sistemnyi analiz (in
Russian), No. 2, p. 65-86.
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technogenic safety control'', Proceedings of the 9th Annual Conference ``Risk Analysis:
Facing the New Millenium'', Rotterdam, 10-13 October, pp. 650-3.
CT for waste
management
421
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m a n a g e m e n t a n d e n viro n m e n t a l h e a lt h : g e n e ra l e n v iro n m e n t a l m a n a g e m e n t ; e n v iro n m e n t a l
p o licie s a n d le g is la t io n ; in d u s t ria l e n v iro n m e n t a l p ra ct ice s a n d p ro ce s s e s ; e n v iro n m e n t a l h e a lt h ;
a p p lie d t ra in in g in e n v iro n m e n t a l m a n a g e m e n t ; e n v iro n m e n t a l m a n a g e m e n t s y s t e m s ; s u s t a in a b le
d e v e lo p m e n t , la n d u s e a n d p la n n in g ; w a s t e s m a n a g e m e n t ; e n e rg y a n d it s u s e ; w a t e r, w a t e r u s e ,
w a s t e w a t e r a n d w a t e r m a n a g e m e n t ; d is e a s e s a n d illn e s s e s d e riv in g fro m e n v iro n m e n t a l
p ro b le m s ; a s p e ct s o f e n v iro n m e n t a l m a n a g e m e n t a n d la w .
Th e b e n e fit s o f re g is t e rin g y o u r re s e a rc h : Th e EMH In t e rn e t Re s e a rch Re g is t e r p ro vid e s t h e
re s e a rch co m m u n it y wit h p re - p u b lica t io n in fo rm a t io n a n d t h e p o t e n t ia l fo r fu rt h e r n e t wo rkin g ,
a lo n g s id e e a rly in fo rm a t io n o n n e w a re a s fo r a p p lica t io n a n d d e ve lo p m e n t in t h e fie ld . It a ls o
a llo ws t h e re s e a rch e r t o :
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p ro m o t e t h e ir o wn re s e a rch a n d t h a t o f t h e ir o rg a n is a t io n / in s t it u t io n ;
e n s u re t h a t t h e y a re n o t d u p lica t in g re s e a rch t h a t is a lre a d y u n d e rwa y;
id e n t ify p o s s ib le re s e a rch m e t h o d o lo g ie s ;
id e n t ify p e e rs fo r co lla b o ra t ive re s e a rch p ro je ct s ;
id e n t ify p o s s ib le s o u rce s o f fu n d in g fo r re s e a rch ;
id e n t ify t yp e s o f re s e a rch u n d e rwa y, e . g . t h e o re t ica l, a p p lie d re s e a rch , ca s e s t u d y;
id e n t ify a re a s wh e re fu rt h e r re s e a rch is re q u ire d .
Th e EMH In t e rn e t Re s e a rch Re g is t e r is fre e ly a va ila b le t o a ll wh o re g is t e r t h e ir re s e a rch , t o
s u b s crib e rs t o t h e a b o ve jo u rn a ls a n d t o m e m b e rs o f a s s o cia t e d o rg a n is a t io n s / in s t it u t e s . Ple a s e
co n t a ct Je n n y Pickle s : jp ickle s @m cb . co . u k fo r d e t a ils o f h o w yo u r a s s o cia t io n ca n g a in fr e e
a cce s s .
All e n t rie s a re va lid a t e d b y Pro f. Wa lt e r Le a l Filh o , Te ch n ica l Un ive rs it y Ha m b u rg - Ha rb u rg
Te ch n o lo g y Tra n s fe r ( TUHH/ Tu Te ch ) , Ge rm a n y a n d t h e Ro ya l In s t it u t e o f Te ch n o lo g y, S t o ckh o lm ,
S we d e n .
No re s p o n s ib ilit y is a cce p t e d fo r t h e a ccu ra cy o f in fo rm a t io n co n t a in e d in t h e re s e a rch p re s e n t e d wit h in t h is Re g is t e r. Th e o p in io n s
e xp re s s e d h e re in a re n o t n e ce s s a rily t h o s e o f t h e Ed it o rs o r t h e p u b lis h e r.
© MCB Un iv e rs it y Pre s s , UK a n d Th o m a s Te ch n o lo g y S o lu t io n s ( UK) Lt d .
[ S e a rch ] [ Ad va n ce d S e a rch ] [ S u b m it Re s e a rch ] [ Ed it Re s e a rch ] [ He lp ]
http://www.mcbup.com/research_registers/emh/sponsors.asp (2 of 2) [04/10/2000 12:59:28 PM]