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Journal of Education for Business

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Futurism: Its Potential and Actual Role in Master of
Business Administration (MBA) Education
Robin T. Peterson
To cite this article: Robin T. Peterson (2006) Futurism: Its Potential and Actual Role in Master
of Business Administration (MBA) Education, Journal of Education for Business, 81:6, 334-343,
DOI: 10.3200/JOEB.81.6.334-343
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Published online: 07 Aug 2010.

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Futurism: Its Potential and Actual Role in
Master of Business Administration (MBA)
Education
ROBIN T. PETERSON
NEW MEXICO STATE UNIVERSITY
LAS CRUCES, NEW MEXICO

ABSTRACT. In this article, the author
highlights the potential role of “futurism”
in master of business administration (MBA)
curricula and the conceivable offerings of

futurism to business planners. This article
serves as a corollary to educators in MBA
business education and concerns to the
nature of futurism, the benefits of futurism
to managerial planning, the use of futurism
in industry, and the various techniques for
producing long-term scenarios. In addition,
the author describes the results of an
exploratory study on the extent of knowledge that MBA students possess on this
subject. The results of this study suggest
that MBA students are not well-informed
about this approach.
Copyright © 2006 Heldref Publications

334

Journal of Education for Business

S

ome observers have concluded
that business schools in general,
and master of business administration
(MBA) programs in particular, are suffering declines in relevance and influence. According to one source,
When we examine the actual effects of
business schools on the two outcomes of
most relevance on importance, the careers
of their graduates and the knowledge they
produce, the picture is reasonably bleak.
There is little evidence that mastery of the
knowledge acquired in business schools
enhances people’s careers, or that even
attaining the MBA credential itself has
much effect on graduates’ salaries or career
attainment. (Pfeffer & Fong, 2002, p. 79)

However, the perspective of Pfeffer
and Fong appears to depart from most
conventional beliefs. More current
research suggests that the rate of return

for an MBA is high (although it has
declined slightly in recent periods) and
the demand for MBAs, on the part of
recruiters, has increased and should
continue to do so as the economy
improves (Carmichael & Sutherland,
2005; Connolly, 2003; Van Auken &
Chrysler, 2005).
What is apparent is that curriculum
contents must be continually assessed to
ensure that they are timely and germane
to the needs of business (Barr &
McNeilly, 2002; Dyrud & Worley,
2005; Mintzberg & Gosling, 2002).
Studies are needed to determine what
courses and course components are of

value to managers (Avison, 2003; Bailey & Ford, 1996; Pinard & Allio,
2005). Determining if, how, and when
to keep up with the speed of business is

becoming more important as business
schools face increased competition and
an ever-changing corporate climate
(Barker & Stowers, 2005; RichardsWilson, 2002). There are institutional
and other obstacles to curricular assessment and change, but these must be
overcome if genuine improvement is to
be made (Hagen, Miller, & Johnson,
2003; Shelton, Yang, & Qian, 2005). In
turn, various researchers in the field
have directed their efforts to conducting
studies that reveal directions that these
academic programs can and should take
(e.g., Boyatzis, Stubbs, & Taylor, 2002;
Friis & Smit, 2004; Wanous, Reichers,
& Austin, 2004).
Business graduate program professors have made a number of innovations
in an attempt to enhance the quality of
their offerings. Some examples are (a)
incorporating analysis of vintage (i.e.,
historical) cases (Peterson & Pratt,

2004), (b) adjusting the program to
local culture (Rodrigues, 2005), (c)
adding community service courses
(Wittmer, 2004), (d) Using outdoor
challenge training (Shivers-Blackwell,
2004), (e) Offering accelerated degree
programs (Singh & Martin, 2004), (f)
Using student-as-client models (Armstrong, 2003), (g) Offering creativity

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instruction (McIntyre, Hite, & Rickard,
2003); and (h) including theory and
analysis in the capstone strategy course
(Greiner, Bhambri, & Cummings,
2003). In addition, there has been a very
modest coverage of “futurism” in MBA
education, but this effort does not
appear to be extensive (Campbell &
Helleloid, 2002).

The bulk of the research and practice
in teaching futurism has arisen from
psychology, rather than business administration, but has the potential for application in MBA courses, where cross-fertilization from other academic fields is
common (Tomkovick, 2004). I explored
possible futurism applications in the
MBA curriculum, which led to an examination of what the term futurism means.
The Nature of Futurism
A comprehensive
futures studies is

definition

of

a field of intellectual and political activity
concerning all sectors of the psychological, social, economic, technological,
political and cultural life, aiming at discovering and mastering the extensions of
the complex chain of casualties, by means
of conceptualizations, systematic reflections, experimentations, anticipations,
and creative thinking. [It is . . .] about

goals, purposes, where we are going, how
we get there and the problems and opportunities we will encounter en route.
(Sanal, 2003, p. 31)

The general orientation of futurists is
to overcome the typical resistance to
looking and thinking ahead (Bucen,
2004; Weiner & Brown, 2005). A related belief is that the future can be influenced (Nervy, 2004). In turn, there are
certain characteristics of a futurist perspective upon which most futurists
agree and that distinguish studies in this
area from those in many other disciplines and fields of study. These characteristics include the following, as cited
by Groff and Smoker (2004):
1. Seeing change as the norm and
seeing change and as accelerating.
2. Seeing events as interrelated (within a whole systems context), not separate and unconnected;
3. Taking a holistic or whole systems
perspective in looking at change;
4. Accepting as a premise that there
are many alternative futures;

5. Distinguishing between possible,
probable, and preferable futures;
6. Helping people realize that there
are always consequences to what we do
or do not do;
7. Understanding importance of
ideas, values, and positive visions in
creating a better future;
8. Empowering people to choose and
act responsibly and consciously in the
present; and
9. Accepting the importance of short-,
medium-, and long-range planning.
Futurism is a field of inquiry and
application that has suffered from a
poor public image in the past (Hines,
2003; Masini, 1998). Criticism of futurists sometimes occurs, so when mainstream journalists deride futures
research for being not relevant, they
tend to dismiss the futures community
as ill-informed (Mahaffie, 2003). However, many widespread perceptions of

futurism are not accurate. First in
importance, it is not a “crystal ball”
practice embracing appeals to the
divine, illusions, and metaphysical sensation (Orndoff, 2004). Contrary to popular opinion, futurists do not pretend
that they can forecast future happenings. Rather, they recognize probable
scenarios through the study of trends
over time and current happenings. Once
this has been accomplished, they relegate to others the task of capitalizing on
the possible advantages that these
changes offer and protecting themselves
from the effect of adverse pressures
(Shays, 2003). The field of futurism has
developed to a stage that, at present, is
deemed a science by some scholars
(Hines, 2001).
Managers improve their ability to
react to developments in the environment when they generate multiple scenarios and evaluate the chance that each
one will happen and the impact that it
will impose on the company (Barbanente & Khakee, 2003). Often the scenarios help identify products and services that are consonant with
modifications in cultural norms, competition, customer demands, or technology. The scenarios may be based on

consumer values (such as when consumers demand increasing convenience
in paying bills), competitor actions

(such as when a competitor improves
its customer service), economic conditions (such as when unemployment
increases), technological advances,
variations in the weather, new governmental regulations, and many other
alterations (Aaker, 2005). Management
can benefit through the generation of
multiple scenarios because that permits
them to make long-term plans with provisions for contingencies (Nervy,
2004). Bell (1997) has provided a succinct case for the consideration of these
potential future developments: “The
future is not factual until it has become
the past. Therefore futurists formulate
their assertions in a range of alternative
futures. Planners can then devise plans
for each alternative and examine each
of them, thereby stimulating creative
ideas that people could have obtained in
no other way” (p. 48). It is wellestablished that management should give
more than lip service to long-run considerations (Brown, 2005; Foegen,
1993; Hines, 1999). Futurists tend to
adopt a long-run outlook (one that is
different from the majority of company
planners, who largely address prevailing trends) and direct their attention to
time spans, which may run 25 or more
years into the hereafter (Coates, 2001;
Delios, 2001; Groff & Smoker, 2004;
Lach, 1999). Essentially, it is not functional to designate the future as taking
place on such lengthy periods. There
are a large number of variables that are
operating and a large number of relationships between the variables that
inhibit designating a specific and particular future set of conditions. However, it is feasible to recognize various
possible futures, or an array of conditions into which the future may unfold
that individually and collectively have
meaning for those who are involved in
long-run planning (Coates, 2003). The
future cannot be seen as singular. On
the contrary, many alternative futures
that depend on present choices exist. In
turn, these are better comprehended by
understandings and interpretations of
the past. The future is the sole field
upon which humans can exert an
impact because the past can only be
construed, and the present is mainly
determined by happenings and acts in
the near or far-off past (Masini, 1998).
July/August 2006

335

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Planning Considerations
The research and professional literature cites many instances where faulty
planning is responsible for business failure (Knotts, Jones, & Udell, 2003). In
turn, plans can be inadequate when they
neglect flexibility in the unstable environment that envelops numerous firms,
and even when the environment is studied, alterations may be misdiagnosed or
their underlying patterns not correctly
detected (Duchon & Ashmos, 1999).
When managers do plan effectively,
they focus their attention on the major
goals of the company and the objectives
of the central stakeholders. Following
this, they generate and assess programs
that can allow the company to achieve
the more important goals. Next, they
evaluate, the premises that support the
programs. These are theories on points
such as customer desires, competition,
the company, its personnel, and its
financial condition. Futurism is of value
in this process because it assists managers in evaluating the premises and
judging the degree to which they are
consonant with the scenarios that
appear to have a strong probability of
materializing (Shays, 2003). Observant
study may suggest that superior premises should be used or existing premises
altered if the company’s planning
efforts are to be well conceived.
There are occasions when plans do not
produce sought after effects because
managers have not taken the long-range
future into account (Foegen, 1993; Isserman, 1985). Of course, the result may be
that the firm pursues strategies with
undesired ramifications. Experience suggests that planning is one of the major
avenues for using future studies as a
means of overcoming obstacles confronting the company. Those managers
who focus their attention on the future
often find that this significantly enhances
their planning endeavors. To accomplish
this, they devote adequate consideration
to the future outcomes of planned strategies and programs. In this regard, managers are well advised to identify the
desired future state and determine how it
can be realized in light of the most likely
scenarios for the future. This activity
may necessitate departing from conventional methods of operation and placing
336

Journal of Education for Business

the future in the forefront of decision
making (Cole, 2001).
The Use of Futurism in Industry
One can make a strong case for the
proposition that when independent
managers are involved in planning they
should evaluate the status of the future
environment if their endeavors are to be
successful. Cultural values, method of
operation, employee orientations and
skills, financial procedures, and other
influential variables are undergoing
continual evolution (Orndoff, 2004;
Sanal, 2003). Managers are confronted
with the necessity of developing means
for using information to produce strategies that are appropriate for the company (Slaughter, 2002).
It is apparent that social goals and
standards in the United States and most
other nations are successively taking on
innovative forms (Mathews, 2001). In
the opinion of some futurists, the
upcoming 25 years will involve more
changes than those that occurred over
the past 100 years, and, if this transpires, planning innovations that are at
least four times as rapid and effective as
they had been in the past are needed
(Kipp, 2001). An accomplishment of
this magnitude will require recognizing
complacency as the major obstacle to
innovation and improved management.
There are numerous potential applications of futurism to business planning. In
fact, envisioning the future is a process
that can benefit plans in such fields as
operations, marketing, finance, human
resources, logistics, and communications.
Environmental scanning is a process
that can be improved through extensions to future time periods. It is of vital
importance that, in today’s world of
uncertainty, organizations stay abreast
of environmental changes that can affect
the future, and special expertise is
required to realize how an event or trend
might affect an institution in the future
(Pashiardis, 1996). Organizations must
tailor specific sources of external information, devise a method to collect the
information, and use the information
effectively in the planning process and
in building the future. An advantage of
this kind of screening is that it provides
all individuals with the opportunity to

contribute to the strategic planning
process (Pashiardis).
Futurism also has a role to play in
product innovation activities. This tool
can assist in guiding management in
efforts at developing offerings that are
valued by a significant set of customers
and that reflect the abilities of the organization. Each of these two essential components should be pulled apart and
looked at separately, in terms of their
present and expected future status
(Miller, 2001). The focus should be on
customers and away from internal issues,
and separate treatment of these two factors the odds of accomplishing this.
An application of futurism to product
innovation can be found in the area of
home construction. Hiat (1988) combined research on aging and environmental design with futurism and brainstorming to suggest possibilities for
smart housing for the aging. Smart
housing is defined as homes in which
systems and appliances can command
each other through advances in wiring
therefore, that require less management
and offer security, thereby making older
adults’ lives easier. The Dail Mil Ideal
Home Show, held annually in London,
provides examples of homemaking
futurism and provides companies that
have developed concepts of homes for
the future the opportunity to sell their
offerings to consumers. Many of these
homes feature extensive Internet technology (Wishart, 2000).
Futurism has a potential impact on
human resource and personnel management as well. In this regard, researchers
have provided a number of scenarios that
appear to have a high probability of
occurrence in the future, including the
professionalization of the personnel field,
issues of comparable worth, and the
assessment and psychological testing of
employees, particularly older and handicapped (Hunt, 1984). Another application in the human resource field is in
careers and employment opportunities.
Here, changes in the world of work (e.g.,
the decline of heavy industry and the rise
of careers in the electronic cottage) have
important implications for future job
seekers and placement personnel alike
(Navin & Burdin, 1986). Yet another
application is futurism consultancy that
specializes in workplace trends, such as

midcareer retirement. Scholars in this
field study what individuals do away
from work, how midcareer retirements fit
in with family obligations, and what the
trend toward midcareer retirement means
for managers (Wellner, 2001).
Given that there are business functions that can link with futurism, how
can managers make operational use of
this technique? The following section
focuses on how the method can be
implemented.

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Applying Futurists’ Methods
Managerial planning may benefit
through correct interpretation and application of futurist techniques, but these
tools are not the only ones that are valuable. Other potentially useful inputs are
sales forecasting, portfolio analysis,
marketing research, creative thinking
stimulators, evaluation of rival services,
environmental scanning programs,
reengineering, and SWOT (Strengths
Weaknesses Opportunities Threats)
analysis. Each of these methods can
assume a significant role in well-conceived planning. Conversely, the futurist
pattern provides specific advantages that
may not be equaled by the others. For
example, marketing research frequently
centers on future developments and
states, but even when this is the case, the
research future time span is only moderate (Coates, 2003). This does not suggest
that such research lacks value. However,
it can operate in conjunction with futurism, which typically serves as a complement to, not a substitute for, this and
other approaches to improve planning.
Two avenues are open for using futurism as a tool for those managers who are
involved in planning. The first involves
making use of work already compiled by
others and published in print or electronic formats. This is called using secondary
derivation. The second approach is one
in which managers undertake their own
futurist studies and perspectives of the
future (i.e., primary derivation).

by managers who seek specialized guidance. A major advantage of secondary
derivation sources is that many of them
contain work prepared by experts with
the education and experience that is
sought by industries. In addition, considerable information is free of charge or
costs a moderate price. Further, most of
the insights are available in a reasonable
time period. However, there are drawbacks associated with secondary derivation sources. One is that their output may
not be precisely what is desired by the
manager in question because they are oriented toward an audience rather than an
individual. Further, many of the outputs
are accessible by others, including rivals.
What follows is an overview of some
of the secondary derivation sources that
have considerable potential and should
continue in this role. My focus is not to
describe the total set or even a large proportion of the sources in existence, but
to address a small number with a track
record of accuracy and reliability.
Future Survey
The Future Survey is a monthly
abstract of books, articles, and reports
concerning forecasts, trends, and ideas
about the future. Access is limited to
subscribers ($98 per year) and institutional members ($145 per year) and is
found at http://www.wfs.org/fsurv.htm.
It contains concise and nontechnical
abstracts of recently published literature.
Selections are made from more than a
hundred book publishers, a score of
research institutes, leading newspapers,
and dozens of key magazines and scholarly journals. Noteworthy individual
items in each 20-page monthly issue are
selected as “Highlights,” and clusters of
significant ideas are identified and summarized in “Connections.” The editor
adds brief critical comments to items
(many readers consider this as the best
article in Future Survey). The editor, Dr.
Michael Marien, has more than 20 years
of experience in identifying and interpreting the futures-relevant literature.

Secondary Derivation
A large number of seasoned professionals have produced and made available various insights regarding future
approaches, methods, happenings, and
trends and many can readily be acquired

Introduction to Future Studies Home
Page
The introduction to the Future Studies home page (http://www.csudh.edu/
globaloptions/IntroFS.HTML) provides

a wide selection of futures-oriented
materials at no cost. It includes a brief
history of the future studies field, a
range of futurist views and perspectives,
characteristics of a futurist perspective,
key subject studies by futurists, methodologies for studying change and the
future, key organizations involved in the
study of the future and change, future
studies conferences, and future studies
universities and programs. Relevant
writings (i.e., abstracts, outlines, papers,
and articles) are also provided.
Foresight
Foresight (http://pippo.emeraldinsight.
com) is a vehicle for the publication of
research, business analysis, and policy
thinking. The journal provides a forum
for debate on the important social, economic, political, and technological issues
that are shaping the future. It is a source
of information about futures activity
from around the world. Generally, it is
intended as a resource for those in business and nonprofit organizations, providing a long-term perspective to inform
managers about possible decisions and
actions.
Futures: The Journal of Policy,
Planning, and Futures Studies
Futures: The Journal of Policy, Planning, and Futures Studies (http://www.
elsevier.com/locate/futures) is a multidisciplinary, refereed journal concerned
with medium- and long-term futures of
cultures and societies, science and technology, economics and politics, organizations and corporations, environments,
and individuals and humanity. It covers
methods and practices of futures studies
and seeks to examine possible and alternative futures of all human endeavors. It
strives to promote divergent and pluralistic visions, ideas, and opinions about
the future.
Futures Research Quarterly
The Futures Research Quarterly is a
studious journal whose editors endeavor
to stimulate and generate communications between researchers and managers
in a diversity of disciplines and various
social, political, economic, and geographic areas. The articles are scholarly,
July/August 2006

337

but written in a manner that is meaningful to practicing managers rather than in
academic jargon. This journal spans a
wide coverage of topics. It attempts to
provide informed knowledge and scholarship in the methods and implementation of futures studies and their role in
managerial planning and policy formation and the application of plans in the
business sector.

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The Futurist
The Futurist volume takes the format
of a bimonthly magazine. This work
has been in existence since 1967 when
it was first introduced by the World
Future Society, a nonprofit organization. The Futurist’s editors do not strive
to promulgate notions on what the
future will be like or what it would
include in a hypothetical supreme condition. Instead, they attempt to take on
the role of an impartial concept sounding board with their journal. The various issues provide feature articles produced by experienced specialists in an
extended range of disciplines.
The Millennium Project
Another source, The Millennium Project, is produced by the American Council for the United Nations University.
This volume presents yearly communications on anticipated future occurrences. Theodore Gordon, frequently
mentioned as one of the leading modern
futurists, developed the project. Gordon
is one of the inventors of the Delphi
process, a technique that is extensively
used in futures and other studies. In addition, this individual was an innovator in
the use of computers to enlarge the capabilities of future exploration practitioners. The project’s yearly report sets forth
combined estimates of various experts,
bearing on the subject areas under consideration. A recent report, 2003 State of
the Future (2005); is accompanied by a
2,500 page compact disk (for more
detail, consult http://www.stateofthe
future.org).
GW Forecast
Another potentially valuable contributor of intelligence is George Washington
University’s GW Forecast (www.GW
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Journal of Education for Business

Forecasts.gwu.edu). It presents materializing futurist methods and policies that
are developed by a World Wide Web of
well-versed experts. This itemized grouping of futures intelligence has been
shaped over the past decade and is primarily dedicated to technological developments. In the same fashion as The Millennium Project, it is based on a Delphi
process arising from the intellectual contributions of learned futurists who specialize in both theory and applications.
World Future Society
The World Future Society (http://
www.wfs.org) is an organization that
generates a large number of Web
forums. Prominent samples of these
include (a) the Cyber Society Forum,
which endeavors to predict how future
life may take place, (b) the Opportunity
Forum, which sets forth various
thoughts regarding opportunities to
improve professional and personal life,
(c) the Utopias Forum, which contains a
variety of essays on preferred future
states, and the Methodologies Forum,
which furnishes suggestions and potentially useful methods for futuring efforts
and insights on the objectives for studying the future.
In addition to the secondary derivation
contacts reported above, many futurists
furnish useful offerings through newsletters, Web pages, books, monographs,
reports articles, and other conduits.
Among the more widelycited, respected,
endorsed, and read of these are those
written by Joe Coates, Elenora Masini,
William Strauss, James Morrison, Ryan
Mathews, Rosita Delios, Marita WeselyClough, Harold Linstone, Anita Rubin,
Neil Howe, William Renfro, Peter
Schwartz, and Murray Turoff.
Primary Derivation
Some managers may prefer to conduct their own futurist studies rather
than relying upon the work of others.
What one learns from these primary
derivation efforts is normally confidential (not made available to others, including rivals) and could focus on issues of
particular concern to one’s own company. Numerous recommendations and
suggestions, which can be of value to
managers in virtually any industry are

available. Several that are of particular
importance are discussed in this section.
To study the future, it is necessary to
take a long-term trend focus, and not be
deterred by fads and short-term
changes. This is a very important perspective that should be adopted as a primary principle of primary derivation.
“The fundamental features of cultures
and societies change very slowly and
cannot be identified except in the long
term. And yet this is generally the pace
at which the most profound changes
take place, which explains why special
instruments and methods are necessary
to measure them” (Delios, 2001, p. 3).
In this section I list a number of primary derivation methods that can be
used by managers without specialized
training and experience. I have included
various, more complex, techniques that
do require considerable expertise at the
end of the section.
Groff and Smoker (2004) proposed a
generally accepted, overall practical,
and uncomplicated approach for conducting future studies. The steps in this
approach are as follows: (a) specify the
values sought by the organization (such
as increases in return on invested capital
or customer satisfaction), (b) analyze
the present and forecast future developments, (c) formulate designs of alternative futures (predict what various possible futures might be like), (d) evaluate
the designs of alternative futures (judge
the desirability of the various possible
futures), (e) draft transition strategies of
how one gets from one’s starting pace to
where one wants to end up. (f) implement policies, (g) receive feedback on
whether or not these policies are having
the planned effects, and (h) adjust
strategies and policies on the basis of
feedback.
Diamond (1997) also proposed a
series of very practical suggestions on
the topic of “How to be your own futurist.” Diamond’s suggestions are:
1. In the course of each week, choose
and read a trade magazine originating in
a different industry. This can be insightful
because it furnishes new information and
additional perspectives and positions.
2. Engage in an ongoing process of
reading classical works. Following the
thinking of writers such as Homer, Con-

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fucius, and David Ricardo can produce
suggested scenarios that may recur at a
future time.
3. Upgrade your listening capability
and engage in more listening effort.
Ability in this area is an important prerequisite for learning. It is well established that practice can improve listening skills.
4. Volunteer in nonprofit institutions.
Everyone who is involved in a service
organization has an equitable proportion
of influence. In this circumstance, one
does not have authority over others or
expect obedience to others who have
greater degrees of power, so new ideas
and suggestions often can be acquired
without difficulty.
5. Permit your own or other children
to enlighten you in a subject area where
they are more knowledgeable than you
are. This activity can build modesty and
humbleness and can lead to innovative
and newly recognized scenarios of the
future.
Cole (2001), a highly regarded futurist, also suggests a structured program
for engaging in futures studies:
1. Realize that many alternative
futures may come into existence.
2. Make an effort to differentiate
between potential, likely, and desired
futures.
3. Try to forecast anything (favorable
or unfavorable, likely or unlikely) that
could come into being for every potential future scenario.
4. Concentrate on the more likely
future scenarios. What is most probable
to come into existence in upcoming
time periods?
5. Expand upon and amplify desired
futures. What are the most preferred
future scenarios?
Scenarios have a prominent place in
the futurist activities of many business
firms. These are possible sequences of
events that could happen in the future,
based on certain initial conditions or
assumptions and what could follow from
that (Groff & Smoker, 2004). Futurists
often construct at least two or three different scenarios about the future in some
area, believing that different alternative
futures are possible. Examples include
best case, worst case, most probable

case, and other type scenarios. The aim
is not to predict the future but to be able
to use exploratory or anticipatory scenarios to infer what paths should be followed and what directions are preferred
(UNESCO, 1995).
A scenario begins when we ask,
“What would happen if this occurred?”
Once the question is posed, one can
begin to imagine the consequences of
the event. This makes managers aware
of potential problems that might occur if
certain actions were taken. Plans should
be made as to the preparations that
would be necessary for the event to
occur. Management can then make decisions, such as abandoning proposed
actions or preparing to take precautions
that would minimize the problems that
would result.
Van der Werff developed a series of
scenario planning steps that can be useful in guiding managers (van der Werff,
2000). The steps are (a) specify the
major issue or decision you are facing;
(b) isolate the key drivers (i.e., external
forces) affecting your company; (c)
select three drivers that are both important and the most uncertain; (d) write
three scenarios (short stories) of the
future, each highlighting a different key
driver; (e) give each scenario a pithy,
memorable name; (f) determine the
implications of each scenario for the
issue being considered; (g) consider
possible strategies to respond to each
implication; (h) select indicators that
suggest that a particular scenario is
unfolding; and (i) act in a timely and
appropriate manner as a particular
future unfolds.
A possible course of action is to use
normative forecasting. This involves
describing all the possible future scenarios by using all available methods,
deciding which scenario would be good
for the firm, then finding a way to attain
that scenario. What needs to be done is
often relatively clear. How to get it done
relies on how much those involved want
it, what they are willing to tolerate, and
how much they are prepared to pay to
make it happen (Pohl, 1996).
A method that has considerable merit
is to seek out unfulfilled or unknown
consumer needs and wants that are not
being met by companies and other parties (Abraham, 2003). Some examples

are reducing obesity, reducing water
pollution, preserving the stock of nonrenewable resources, providing job
opportunities, discovering economical
alternative sources of energy, and dealing with the population explosion. The
incidence of these and other significant
needs can direct business, government,
nonprofit, and other organizations into
programs specifically designed to satisfy them. Focusing on studies of needs
and attempts to satisfy them can produce concepts of the future that have a
high likelihood of happening.
A somewhat similar technique is to
use personal travel as an avenue for
insights (see Paul, 2003). Taking advantage of trips to both domestic and foreign locations can reveal both long- and
short-term patterns and unfamiliar
developments. Conducting dialogues
with others who reside in these locales,
inspecting their products and service
offerings, studying their promotion
materials, perusing what they read, and
surveying their television and radio
transmissions may reveal novel trends
and happenings. On the domestic front,
novel products and services, social
norms, techniques, approaches, and
fashions are often initiated in the distant
eastern and western states and later
move inward to interior states. Particular foreign localities, including Japan
and Brazil, are often the point of origin
for forthcoming trends in other countries. Furthermore, trips to exotic cities,
such as Marakesh, can bring forth fresh
perceptions.
The analysis of demographic data is a
method that can generate novel understandings. Changes in variables, such as
marital status, birth rates, mortality,
employment, expenditures, gender, ethnicity, and wealth, can reveal later alterations in other variables, such as purchasing behavior and methods of
motivating employees. Data sources
indicate, for example, that the proportion of extended families, in both developed and developing nations, is declining, relative to the proportion of
two-cohort units. The outcomes could
include increased demand for homes for
elderly persons, changes in the transportation needs of the population, and
fewer cottage industries. Long-term patterns in demographics such as these are
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continually occurring and often portend
important developments to come.
Observation is an obvious but frequently overlooked avenue for producing informed visions of future developments. Shopping in retail outlets,
strolling through railroad and bus terminals, eavesdropping on dialogues in
restaurants and bars, surveying employees on the job, noticing traffic patterns,
and other means of observing domestic
and foreign culture can lead to useful
impressions. “When a new word enters
the lexicon, a color becomes fashionable, a design influence hits the mainstream or a lifestyle change becomes
socially acceptable, changes may be on
the way” (Paul, 2003, p. 42). Observation appears to have a solid role in studies of the future.
New visions can result from conversations with others and associated disclosures of their ideas about the future.
New vistas may arise from dialogues
with those who differ from us in such
characteristics as source of income,
gender, age, self-image, location, religious preferences, and other attributes
(Abraham, 2003). Interpersonal communication of this kind is undertaken
through various means, such as personto-person or over the Internet through
channels like communication boards
and chat rooms (Halal, 2004).
Ostensibly an unlikely, quixotic, and
inordinately unrealistic method, surveying science fiction publications has been
found to be enlightening to some extent.
Some futurists browse through science
fiction manuscripts and undertake a program of construing and then developing
unconventional and even extreme scenarios (Jennings, 2004). Shostak (2000)
has observed that childrens’ electronic
games, fiction books, and cartoons can
all be employed for this purpose.
There are a number of futurist methods beyond those covered in this article.
Many of these are very complex and
require specialized knowledge to use,
including those listed below. A description of each and further references for
pursuing the methods are available in
Delios (2001), Groff and Smoker
(2004), Joels (2004), and Sanal (2003).
1. Trend extrapolation: Project past
trends into the future.
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2. Analogies: Use historical and natural precedents to form the basis of
meaningful forecasts. For example,
comparing the rise and fall of Ming
dynasty naval exploration with contemporary space exploration.
3. Dynamic systems analysis and
computer modeling: Show how variables interact with each other within a
whole systems context over time.
4. Simulations and games: Take variables from reality and create a computer model or simulation showing how
these variables might interact over time.
5. Cross impact analysis: Show how
choices concerning one variable interact
with choices on another variable, providing a table of all possible combinations of choices for each variable and
showing which combinations are viable
and which are not.
6. Technological impact assessment:
Look at how new developments will
impact the environment. This is related
to social impact assessment, or looking
at how new developments will impact
society or one community.
7. Futures wheels: Conduct group
brainstorming to quickly predict what
some of the first, second, and third order
consequences might be if an event were
to occur or if some change were to take
place in the future. Everything that follows from this event is placed in the
center of the futures wheel.
8. Intuition and intuitive forecasting:
Use a right brain experience in which
you suddenly “know” something to be
true or you suddenly see patterns and
relationships you did not see before.
9. Experiments in alternative
lifestyles: Try out alternative values in
practice. New fads or alternative
lifestyles that respond to social needs
often become mainstream in time.
10. Social action to change the future:
Joining together with others to educate
people on an issue and work for meaningful change often reveals that the
efforts can affect and help to alter the
future.
11. Relevance trees: Map out the
sequence of events and arrange them in
the order that is required to get from
where you are now to where you want to
be as your end goal by some future date.
12. Agent modeling: Construct computer models in which “agents” popu-

late the screen and are given certain,
usually simple, rules of behavior.
13. Complexity modeling: Use concepts of nonlinear dynamics in the modeling of complex systems.
Individual managers may find that
one method or some combination of
methods is instrumental in drafting scenarios that are pertinent for their firms
in future times. It is generally conceded
that this activity is probably somewhat
more an art than it is a science and that
it requires some degree of trial and error
for full results. Generally, probing the
future necessitates training and
rehearsal, and the more managers practice it and hold dialogues with others,
the more proficient they can become in
this endeavor (Coates, 2003).
METHOD
Are futurism philosophies and methods covered in MBA curricula in the
United States? I undertook an
exploratory study to gain knowledge
about the degree to which students are
informed about the potential role of
futurism in managerial planning. This
study is entirely exploratory; the field
has not been subjected to thorough
analysis. I developed a questionnaire
using a 5-point Likert scale (1 = disagree very strongly to 5 = agree very
strongly), pretested it with a sample of
15 MBA students in a southwestern
university, and subsequently revised it
in light of pretest feedback. The
Appendix outlines the questionnaire’s
contents. I mailed a cover letter,
accompanyied by 15 questionnaires to
the marketing department chair of 40
randomly selected universities in 40
states, explaining the goals of the
study, and requesting the chair to pass
on the cover letter and questionnaires
to a professor who taught the MBA
marketing management or strategy
course. The professors collected the
completed questionnaires and mailed
them to me. I mailed follow-up letters
to nonresponding universities. The
sampling frame was the American
Marketing Association 2004 membership directory. The study resulted in
217 questionnaires that were correctly
completed (a response rate of 36.2%).

RESULTS
Table 1 shows the mean response values for each of the 12 statements on the
questionnaire. I used t tests to assess the
significance of each difference between
the mean scale value and the midpoint
of the listed scale values (3.5) for each
statement. As Table 1 shows, the mean
values for 7 of the 12 statements (Statements 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, and 11; see
Appendix) were significantly different
from the midpoint at the .05 level.

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DISCUSSION
My goals in this article were to furnish
an evaluation of the potential of futurism
techniques in contributing to managerial
planning, to outline procedures that can
be used in this area, and to assess MBA
student insights on this technique. I considered the essence of futurism, how the
future can affect planning in industry,
and applications to managerial practice.
It is evident, on the basis of the extant literature, that substantial consideration of
the future is required for well-conceived
managerial planning. Furthermore, there
is evidence that futurism may contribute
to the planning function and a number of
sources of information and futurist techniques are available for use. In addition,
I designed this exploratory study to measure the degree to which MBA students
are informed on this subject.

The inquiry indicated that the MBA
students did not show an inclination to
focus on future periods of 20 years or
more (Statements 1 and 2). They were
noncommittal on the value of futurism
in planning and did not show strong
support for the idea that managers could
become futurists and that extensive
training was needed to master this discipline (Statements 3–5). They felt that
futurists’ scenarios of the future were
not especially accurate (Statement 6).
They saw futurists as concentrating on
forecasting and not practicing the scientific method (Statements 7–9). The
image of futurists was somewhat unfavorable, as they saw it (Statements 10
and 11). Finally, they were not aware of
the degree to which futurism intelligence is available in print and online
formats (Statement 12).
The academic and popular literature
conveys the impression that planning
efforts can be upgraded and strengthened should the futurist orientation be
applied. In fact, specialization in this
and related areas is required by many
MBA recruiting firms (Schelthaudt &
Crittenden, 2005). There is no obvious
reason why this would not hold for the
majority of industries and economic
sectors. I have set forth the output of an
exploratory inquiry that suggests that
many MBA students have not gained a
working knowledge of the promise and
practice of this technique. More inten-

TABLE 1. Responses to Master of Business Administration (MBA) Student Survey Measuring Knowledge About Futurism
Statement
1. As part of the long-run planning process, managers should consider time
periods of 20 or more years in the future.
2. If I was a manager who was constructing long-run plans, I would
consider time periods of 20 or more years in the future.
3. Futurists can be useful in the formulation of managerial plans.
4. Managers can learn to become futurists.
5. To become an effective futurist, one must have extensive training.
6. Futurists’ views of the future tend to be accurate.
7. The only thing that futurists do is make forecasts.
8. Futurists use the scientific method.
9. Futurists are mainly unscientific crystal ball gazers.
10. Most managers have a favorable image of futurists.
11. Most members of the public have a favorable image of futurists.
12. Insight on futurism is available on Web sites and in magazines and journals.
a

M

2.7a
2.3a
3.1
2.4a
3.9
2.0a
3.9
1.8a
3.0
2.5a
2.1a
3.9

Signifies a mean scale value that is significantly different from the midpoint on the scales (3.5),
according to a t test at the .05 alpha level.

sive focus on the long-term future may
provide planning progress that exceeds
the resources committed to this process.
This is a perspective that those who
teach planning-oriented MBA courses
may want to consider.
The composition of many MBA curricula is constrained by the limited number of courses that can be offered or
required of students (Haskins, 2005). It
may be difficult to justify the existence
of a course that is devoted solely to
futurism. However, the major philosophies and perspectives and many of the
methods of futurism can be integrated
into existing courses in management and
marketing, particularly those that deal
with strategy. Future managers can benefit considerably from this arrangement.
Finally, the study set forth in this article was very limited in scope; Therefore, more comprehensive investigations into the area should be undertaken.
NOTE
Correspondence concerning this article should
be addressed to Robin T. Peterson, Department of
Marketing, Box 5280, College of Business
Administration and Economics, New Mexico
State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003.
E-mail: Ropeters@nmsu.edu
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