Analisa Keekonomian Feed-In Tarif Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya I MWP Bangli Dengan Metode Life Cycle Cost.
ABSTRAK
ANALISA KEEKONOMIAN TARIF PENJUALAN
LISTRIK PEMBANGKIT LISTRIK TENAGA SURYA
1 MWp BANGLI DENGAN METODE
LIFE CYCLE COST
Energi listrik sudah menjadi kebutuhan primer bagi masyarakat modern,
kebutuhan energi listrik rata-rat meningkat 8% pertahun sedangkan fosil sebagai
sumber energi listrik utama saat ini semakin berkurang ketersediaannya.
Pemerintah RI telah mengambil kebijakan dalam pengelolaan energi nasional
untuk mengatasi masalah ini, salah satu sasaran kebijakannya adalah untuk
mencapai target bauran energi nasional dengan peran energi baru-terbarukan yang
optimal sebesar 23% pada tahun 2025. PLTS merupakan salah satu sistem
pembangkit listrik energi terbarukan yang mempunyai potensi 0.87 GW di
Indonesia. Pembangunan PLTS didorong dengan kebijakan feed-in tariff (FiT)
yang ditetapkan melalui Permen ESDM RI No. 17 tahun 2013.
Penelitian dilaksanakan di PLTS Bangli, dengan metode Life Cycle Cost
(LCC). Metode LCC menghitung seluruh biaya yang diperlukan selama siklus
hidup PLTS, mulai dari biaya investasi, operasional & maintenance, penggantian
peralatan, sewa lahan, dan asuransi. Tarif penjualan listrik dalam paper ini
dihitung dengan menambahkan margin keuntungan pada hasil perhitungan
Levelized Cost of Energy (LCoE), sedangkan nilai LCoE adalah total present
value LCC dibagi dengan total present value energi yang dibangkitkan. Penentuan
besarnya nilai tarif penjualan listrik mengacu kepada Permen ESDM RI no. 17
tahun 2013. Analisa kelayakan ekonomi tarif penjualan listrik dilakukan dengan
mempergunakan 4 parameter yaitu PBP, NPV, IRR dan PI.
PLTS 1 Mwp Bangli merupakan pilot project dari Kementrian ESDM RI
berlokasi di Desa Kayubihi, Kabupaten Bangli Provinsi Bali yang pengelolannya
telah dihibahkan ke Pemkab Bangli - Bali. Mulai Nopember 2013 pengelolaan
PLTS Bangli dilaksanakan oleh Perusda Bukti Mukti Bhakti milik Pemkab
Bangli, dengan rata-rata pembangkitan energi pertahun 1.125.010 kWh. Total
present value LCC adalah Rp. 34.303.270.132,- Dari hasil perhitungan LCoE
didapatkan nilai tarif penjualan listrik skenario-1 sebesar Rp.4.683 / kWh dan
skenario-2 sebesar Rp. 2.201 /kWh. Hanya tarif skenario-2 yang nilainya dibawah
patokan tertinggi dari ketentuan Permen. Hasil perhitungan studi kelayakan
ekonomi dari tarif skenario-2 (Rp. 2.201 / kWh) dengan parameter PBP, NPV,
IRR dan PI memberikan keputusan layak diterima / memenuhi nilai
keekonomiannya.
Hasil perhitungan skenario-2 (Rp. 2.201,-/kWh § 86 VHQ.:K
memenuhi ketentuan Permen, memenuhi nilai keekonomian dan mempunyai nilai
keberlanjutan untuk dapat membangun kembali PLTS pada tahun 2033.
Keywords—Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya, Feed-in tariff, Levelized Cost of
Energy, Life Cycle Cost
vi
ABSTRACT
ECONOMIC VALUE ANALYSIS ELECTRICITY TARIFF
OF 1 MWP SOLAR POWER STATION IN BANGLI USING
LIFE CYCLE COST METHOD
Electrical energy has become a primary need for the modern society, the
electrical energy needs of average rat increased by 8% per year, while the fossil
as the main source of electrical energy is now diminishing availability. The
Government of Indonesia has taken in Kebijakan Energi Nasional (KEN) to
address this problem, one of the policy objectives are to achieve the national
energy mix with renewable energy's role recently optimized by 23% in 2025.
Solar Energy Generation (PLTS) is one of the renewable energy power
generation system which has the potential to 0.87 GW in Indonesia. PLTS
development is driven by feed-in tariff (FIT) policy established through KESDM
RI No. 17 in 2013.
Research is done in Bangli PLTS, by using a method of Life Cycle Cost
(LCC). LCC method is calculating all of its costs during the life cycle PLTS,
ranging from the cost of investment, operation & maintenance, replacement of
equipment, land rent, and insurance. Electricity sales tariff in this paper is
calculated by adding a profit margin in the calculation of Levelized Cost of
Energy (LCOE), while the value of LCOE is the total of present value LCC
divided by total present value of energy generated. The determination of the value
of electricity sales tariff refers to the Permen ESDM RI no. 17 in 2013. The
economic feasibility analysis of sales rates of electricity is done by using four
parameters: PBP, NPV, IRR and PI.
PLTS 1 MWp Bangli is a pilot project of the Ministry of Energy and
Mineral Resources of Indonesia is located in the village of Kayubihi, Bangli
Regency Bali Province, who management has been granted to Bangli regency Bali. Starting November 2013 Bangli PLTS management implemented by Perusda
Bukti Mukti Bhakti belonging Bangli regency, with an average of 1.12501 million
kWh per year energy generation. The total present value of LCC is Rp.
34,303,270,132, - From the calculation results obtained LCOE electricity sales
tariff value scenarios-1 of Rp.4.683 / kWh and scenario-2 Rp. 2,201 / kWh. Just a
scenario-2 tariff value is less than the highest standards of Permen ESDM. The
results of calculation of economic feasibility studies of the tariff scenario-2 (Rp.
2,201 / kWh) with the parameter PBP, NPV, IRR and PI provide a decent decision
received / meet economic value.
The results of the scenario-2 calculations (Rp. 2,201, - / kWh §86
cents / KWh), comply with Permen ESDM, meet the economic value and has a
value of sustainability to be able to rebuild the PLTS in 2033.
Keywords - Solar Power Station, Feed-in tariff, Levelized Cost of Energy, Life
Cycle Cost.
vii
DAFTAR ISI
Halaman
SAMPUL DALAM.................................................................................................. i
PERSYARATAN GELAR MAGISTER................................................................ ii
LEMBAR PERSETUJUAN PEMBIMBING........................................................ iii
PENETAPAN PANITIA PENGUJI TESIS........................................................... iv
UCAPAN TERIMA KASIH................................................................................. v
ABSTRAK ............................................................................................................. vi
ABSTRACT............................................................................................................ vii
DAFTAR ISI....................................................................................................... viii
DAFTAR GAMBAR ........................................................................................... xiii
DAFTAR TABEL............................................................................................... xiv
DAFTAR ISTILAH & SINGKATAN............................................................... xv
BAB I PENDAHULUAN .................................................................................... 1
1.1 Latar Belakang.......................................................................................... 1
1.2 Rumusan Masalah..................................................................................... 6
1.3 Batasan Masalah ....................................................................................... 7
1.4 Tujuan Penelitian ...................................................................................... 7
1.5 Manfaat Penelitian .................................................................................... 7
BAB II TINJAUAN PUSTAKA............................................................................ 8
2.1 State Of The Art Review............................................................................ 8
2.1.1 Penggunaan Metode Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) Untuk
Penghitungan Efisiensi Energi Pada Gedung Depo Penyimpan Arsip Di
Lembaga Arsip Nasional Republik Indonesia, Wulan Diah Puspitowati,
Tesis Universitas Gajah Mada 2013............................................................ 8
2.1.2 Dynamic Life Cycle Costing in Asset Management of Production
Equipments With Emphasis on Maintenance, Erdem Yksek, Osman
Chaudhary, Master Thesis Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, 2011. .............. 9
2.1.3 Penentuan tarif listrik berdasarkan metode revenue requirement dan
metode LRMC, Lisa Ambasari, Tesis Universitas Indonesia. ................ 10
2.1.4 Studi Tarif Listrik Dengan Menggunakan Metode Long Run
Marginal Cost Di Edtl Timor Leste, Norberto Soares, Tesis Universitas
Udayana 2011............................................................................................ 11
viii
2.1.5 Perumusan Tarif Pembelian Listrik Pada Regulasi Feed in Tariff
untuk Teknologi Photovoltaic Serta Analisa Penerapannya di Indonesia,
Ashadi, Tesis Universitas Indonesia 2012. ............................................... 12
2.2 Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya ( PLTS )............................................ 13
2.2.1 Sistem Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya ....................................... 14
2.2.2 Komponen PLTS............................................................................. 14
a. Generator Sel Surya (Photovoltaic Generator) ............................... 14
b. Modul Surya (Solar PV Modules) ................................................... 18
c. Inverter............................................................................................. 20
d. Charge Controller............................................................................ 23
e. Baterai.............................................................................................. 23
2.2.3 Variasi dalam Produksi Energi Modul Surya ................................. 25
a. Iradiasi (Irradiance).......................................................................... 25
b. Temperatur modul surya (temperature of the module).................... 26
c. Bayangan (Shading)......................................................................... 27
2.3 Sumber Energi Surya .............................................................................. 28
2.3.1 Sumber Energi Surya di Indonesia.................................................. 30
2.3.2 Produksi Energi per Tahun yang Diharapkan ................................. 31
2.4 Life Cycle Cost........................................................................................ 31
2.4.1 Life Cycle Cost Pada Majemen Aset.............................................. 33
2.4.2 . Life Cycle Costs Pada Sistem Energi ............................................ 35
2.4.3 Life Time PLTS ............................................................................... 36
2.5 Regulasi Feed in Tariff di Indonesia....................................................... 37
2.6 Regulasi Feed in Tariff Berbagai Negara di Dunia ................................ 40
2.7 Ekonomi Teknik...................................................................................... 42
2.7.1 Biaya (Cost) .................................................................................... 43
a. Jenis-Jenis Biaya (Cost Types) ........................................................ 45
b. Komponen Biaya (Cost Components) ............................................. 46
c. Elemen Biaya (Cost Elements) ........................................................ 47
2.7.2 Pendapatan (Revenues).................................................................... 48
2.7.3 Konsep Nilai Uang Terhadap Waktu .............................................. 50
a. Present Value (P) ............................................................................. 50
b. Future Value (F)............................................................................... 51
c. Faktor Diskonto ............................................................................... 51
2.7.4 Kriteria Penilaian Investasi ............................................................. 52
ix
a. Metode Net Present Value (NPV) ................................................... 53
b. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) .......................................................... 54
c. Metode Pay Back Period.................................................................. 55
d. Metode Profitability Index............................................................... 55
2.7.5 Salvage Value.................................................................................. 56
2.7.6 Asuransi PLTS ................................................................................ 57
2.7.7 Trend penurunan harga PV ............................................................. 58
2.8 Levelized Cost of Energy ( LCoE) .......................................................... 60
BAB III KERANGKA BERPIKIR, KONSEP, DAN HIPOTESIS
PENELITIAN ....................................................................................................... 62
3.1 Kerangka Berpikir................................................................................... 62
3.2 Konsep .................................................................................................... 63
3.3 Hipotesis Penelitian ................................................................................ 66
BAB IV METODE PENELITIAN ....................................................................... 67
4.1 Tempat dan Waktu Penelitian................................................................. 67
4.1.1 Tempat Penelitian............................................................................ 67
4.1.2 Waktu .............................................................................................. 67
4.2 Teknik Pengumpulan Data...................................................................... 68
4.3 Jenis dan Sumber Data............................................................................ 68
4.4 Variabel Penelitian.................................................................................. 69
4.5 Perangkat Keras dan Perangkat Lunak Pendukung ................................ 72
4.6 Tahapan Penelitian.................................................................................. 72
4.6.1 Tahap identifikasi dan pengumpulan data....................................... 72
4.6.2 Tahap pengolahan data.................................................................... 73
4.6.3 Tahap analisa................................................................................... 73
a. Tinjauan Tarif Penjualan Listrik terhadap Permen ESDM No. 17
tahun2013 ............................................................................................. 74
b. Analisa Kelayakan Ekonomi .......................................................... 74
4.6.4 Diagram alur penelitian................................................................... 74
BAB V HASIL PENELITIAN.............................................................................. 76
5.1 PLTS Bangli........................................................................................... 76
5.2 Sistem PLTS Bangli................................................................................ 77
x
5.3 Peralatan / Komponen PLTS Bangli....................................................... 78
5.3.1 PV Array ......................................................................................... 78
5.3.2 Modul Surya.................................................................................... 78
5.3.3 Penyangga Modul (Support Module) .............................................. 80
5.3.4 Inverter ............................................................................................ 81
5.3.5 Array Protection Panel .................................................................... 83
5.3.6 Panel Distribusi ............................................................................... 83
5.3.7 Transformator Penaik Tegangan (Step Up Transformer) ............... 84
5.3.8 Penyalur Petir Konvensional.......................................................... 85
5.3.9 Remote Monitoring System ............................................................ 86
5.3.10 Environmental Monitoring Device ................................................. 87
5.4 Pengelolaan PLTS Bangli ....................................................................... 88
5.5 Energi Yang Dibangkitkan ..................................................................... 89
BAB VI PEMBAHASAN..................................................................................... 94
6.1 Life Cycle Cost PLTS Bangli.................................................................. 94
6.1.1 Biaya Investasi Awal ....................................................................... 94
6.1.2 Biaya Investasi Pembangunan PLTS pada tahun 2033.................... 95
6.1.3 Biaya Operasional dan Maintenance (O&M) .................................. 96
6.1.4 Biaya Penggantian Peralatan (Inverter) ........................................... 98
6.1.5 Biaya Sewa Lahan ......................................................................... 100
6.1.6 Biaya Asuransi ............................................................................... 101
6.1.7 Total LCC ...................................................................................... 103
6.2 Total Pembangkitan Energi................................................................... 104
6.3 Levelized Cost of Energi (LCoE) PLTS Bangli .................................... 107
6.4 Tarif Penjualan Listrik PLTS Bangli ................................................... 109
6.5 Hasil Penjualan Tenaga Listrik ............................................................. 112
6.6 Tinjauan terhadap Permen ESDM No. 17 Tahun 2013 ........................ 114
6.7 Analisa Kelayakan Ekonomi................................................................. 114
6.4.1 Pay Back Period (PBP) ................................................................. 115
6.4.2 Net Present Value (NPV) .............................................................. 116
6.4.3 Internal Rate of Return (IRR)........................................................ 117
6.4.4 Profitability Index ( PI) ................................................................. 118
BAB VII SIMPULAN DAN SARAN ............................................................... 119
xi
7.1 SIMPULAN .......................................................................................... 119
7.2 SARAN ................................................................................................. 120
DAFTAR PUSTAKA ......................................................................................... 121
xii
DAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar 1.1 Milestone PLTS.................................................................................. 2
Gambar 2.1 Contoh penerapan sel surya kedalam paparan panel surya ............... 13
Gambar 2.2 Struktur sel surya ............................................................................... 16
Gambar 2.3 Proses Kerja Sel Surya ...................................................................... 16
Gambar 2.4 Efek Fotovoltaik ................................................................................ 17
Gambar 2.5 Tahapan Generator Surya .................................................................. 18
Gambar 2.6 Bagian Modul surya crystalline silicon............................................. 19
Gambar 2.7 Modul surya mono-crystalline (kiri) dan poly-crystaline (kanan) .... 20
Gambar 2.8 Skema prinsip kerja inverter satu fasa............................................... 21
Gambar 2.9 Prinsip kerja teknologi PWM ............................................................ 22
Gambar 2.10 Pengaruh iradiasi terhadap tegangan dan arus modul surya ........... 26
Gambar 2.11 Pengaruh temperatur modul terhadap produksi energi modul surya 27
Gambar 2.12 Pengaruh shading terhadap modul surya ........................................ 28
Gambar 2.13 The word atlas of the average solar irradiance .............................. 29
Gambar 2.14 Hubungan modul surya dengan ketinggian matahari ...................... 29
Gambar 2.15 Ketinggian dan azimut matahari ..................................................... 30
Gambar 2.16 Top level of LCC tree...................................................................... 33
Gambar 2.17 Stage of a product life cycle ............................................................ 34
Gambar 2.18 Prosentase kerusakan pada bagian PLTS ........................................ 37
Gambar 2.19 Trend penurunan harga sistem PV .................................................. 60
Gambar 4.1 Diagram alir (flow chart) alur penelitian........................................... 75
Gambar 5.1 Foto satelit lokasi PLTS Bangli ........................................................ 76
Gambar 5.2 Tampak atas denah PLTS Bangli ...................................................... 77
Gambar 5.3 1 Unit PV Array PLTS Bangli .......................................................... 78
Gambar 5.4 Modul surya PLTS Bangli................................................................. 80
Gambar 5.5 Support Module dengan bahan besi metal digalvanis ....................... 81
Gambar 5.6 SUNGROW Grid-connected inverter tipe SG20KTL ...................... 82
Gambar 5.7 Array panel protection yang diletakkan di bawah modul PV ........... 83
Gambar 5.8 Panel distribusi ( 5 unit ) ................................................................... 84
Gambar 5.9. Gardu portal dengan Step up transformator 5 x 250 kVA............... 85
Gambar 5.10. Penyalur Petir PLTS Bangli ........................................................... 86
Gambar 5.11 Rumah monitoring PLTS Bangli..................................................... 87
Gambar 5.12 Meja monitoring PLTS Bangli ........................................................ 88
Gambar 5.13 Struktur organisasi pengelola PLTS Bangli .................................... 89
xiii
DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 2.1 Secondary battery type and carakteristic .............................................. 24
Tabel 3.1 Model penyusunan Tarif Penjualan Listrik ........................................... 65
Tabel 5.1. Electrical Characteristics .................................................................... 79
Tabel 5.2 Mechanical Characteristics .................................................................. 79
Tabel 5.3 Temperature Characteristics ................................................................ 80
Tabel 5.4 Pembangkitan energi PLTS Bangli tahun 2013 .................................... 90
Tabel 5.5 Pembangkitan energi PLTS Bangli tahun 2014 .................................... 91
Tabel 5.6 Jumlah hari pembangkitan energi PLTS Bangli tahun 2013 dan 2014. 93
Tabel 6.1. Biaya Operasi dan Maintenance PLTS Bangli .................................... 97
Tabel 6.2 Biaya penggantian inverter PLTS Bangli ............................................. 98
Tabel 6.3 Present Value total biaya penggantian inverter .................................... 99
Tabel 6.4 Biaya sewa lahan PLTS Bangli ........................................................... 101
Tabel 6.5 Biaya Asuransi PLTS Bangli ............................................................. 102
Tabel 6.6 Total LCC PLTS Bangli ..................................................................... 103
Tabel 6.7 Pembangkitan energi bulan Mei 2013 dan 2014................................. 104
Tabel 6.8 Rata-rata produksi energi PLTS Bangli pertahun .............................. 105
Tabel 6.9 Jumlah total pembangkitan energi PLTS Bangli selama 20 tahun ..... 106
Tabel 6.10 Tarif penjualan listrik skenario-1 dengan biaya investasi ................. 110
Tabel 6.11 Tarif penjualan listrik skenario-2 + biaya investasi th 2033 ............ 111
Tabel 6.12 Perhitungan penjualan tenaga listrik skenario-1 ............................... 112
Tabel 6.13 Perhitungan penjualan tenaga listrik skenario-2 ............................... 113
Tabel 6.14 Perhitungan Pay Back Period............................................................ 115
Tabel 6.15 Perhitungan NPV Tarif Penjualan Listrik ......................................... 116
Tabel 6.16 Perhitungan IRR Tarif Penjualan Listrik .......................................... 117
xiv
DAFTAR ISTILAH & SINGKATAN
Array
susunan dari modul surya
Azimuth
sudut putar dari arah Barat hingga Timur
Balance of system
komponen pendukung yang digunakan dalam sistem
PLTS seperti inverter, baterai, sistem kontrol dan lainlain
Blueprint
cetak biru, rancangan
Bypass diode
dioda baypass, paralel terhadap modul surya
Centralized PV plant
PLTS sentral, terpusat
Charge
pengisian energi listrik
Charge controller
alat kontrol pengisian dan pengosongan energi listrik
pada baterai
Conduction losses
rugi-rugi pada sambungan / hantaran
Depth of discharge
batasan pengosongan suatu baterai
Discharge
pengosongan muatan energi listrik pada baterai
Distributed PV plant
PLTS pola tersebar
Feed-in tariff
tarif pembelian energi listrik yang terkirim ke jaringan
listrik (PLN)
Frame
bingkai
Grid-connected PV plant PLTS terhubung dengan jaringan listrik
Inklinasi
sudut antara bidang yang menjadi acuan dengan bidang
yang diukur kemiringannya
Irradiance
iradiasi, jumlah tenaga surya tersedia per satuan luas
selama periode waktu tertentu
Junction box
kotak sambung
Kwh-meter
alat ukur dan pencatat energi listrik
Life time
usia pakai
Mono-Crystalline
Kristal silikon yang bersifat homogen, murni
Overdischarge
pengosongan berlebih
xv
Photovoltaic
fotovoltaik, proses perubahan energi matahari secara
langsung menjadi energi listrik melalui sel surya
Present Value
Nilai saat ini
Short circuit
hubung singkat
Stand-alone
berdiri sendiri, tidak terhubung jaringan utilitas
Standard test conditions kondisi pengujian / pengetesan standar
String
deret
Thermal pyranometer
alat ukur radiasi matahari secara langsung
Tracking system
sistem pelacak (untuk memposisikan array sesuai arah
gerak matahari)
µm
micrometer
AC
alternating current
Ah
ampere hour
BOS
balance of system
CEI
Contained Energy Indonesia
CO2
karbon dioksida
DC
direct current
DOD
depth of discharge
ESDM
energi dan sumber daya mineral
FiT
feed-in tariff
IEC
Internasional Electrotechnical Commission
KEN
kebijakan energi nasional
Kepmen
Keputusan Menteri
KESDM
Kementrian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral
kV
kilovolt
kVA
kilovolt-ampere
kW
kilowatt
kWh
kilowatt-hours
kWp
kilowatt peak
LEN
Lembaga Elektronika Nasional (sekarang PT. LEN)
LV
low voltage
xvi
m dpl
meter diatas permukaan laut
MCB
miniature circuit breaker
MW
megawatt
MWp
megawatt peak
Permen
Peraturan Menteri
Perpres
Peraturan Presiden
Pilot project
Proyek percontohan
PLN
Perusahaan Listrik Negara
PLTS
pembangkit listrik tenaga surya
PV
photovoltaic
PWM
pulse width modulation
r.m.s
root mean square
RI
Republik Indonesia
SEI
Surya Energi Indotama
Si
silicon
STC
standard test conditions
V
volt
xvii
ANALISA KEEKONOMIAN TARIF PENJUALAN
LISTRIK PEMBANGKIT LISTRIK TENAGA SURYA
1 MWp BANGLI DENGAN METODE
LIFE CYCLE COST
Energi listrik sudah menjadi kebutuhan primer bagi masyarakat modern,
kebutuhan energi listrik rata-rat meningkat 8% pertahun sedangkan fosil sebagai
sumber energi listrik utama saat ini semakin berkurang ketersediaannya.
Pemerintah RI telah mengambil kebijakan dalam pengelolaan energi nasional
untuk mengatasi masalah ini, salah satu sasaran kebijakannya adalah untuk
mencapai target bauran energi nasional dengan peran energi baru-terbarukan yang
optimal sebesar 23% pada tahun 2025. PLTS merupakan salah satu sistem
pembangkit listrik energi terbarukan yang mempunyai potensi 0.87 GW di
Indonesia. Pembangunan PLTS didorong dengan kebijakan feed-in tariff (FiT)
yang ditetapkan melalui Permen ESDM RI No. 17 tahun 2013.
Penelitian dilaksanakan di PLTS Bangli, dengan metode Life Cycle Cost
(LCC). Metode LCC menghitung seluruh biaya yang diperlukan selama siklus
hidup PLTS, mulai dari biaya investasi, operasional & maintenance, penggantian
peralatan, sewa lahan, dan asuransi. Tarif penjualan listrik dalam paper ini
dihitung dengan menambahkan margin keuntungan pada hasil perhitungan
Levelized Cost of Energy (LCoE), sedangkan nilai LCoE adalah total present
value LCC dibagi dengan total present value energi yang dibangkitkan. Penentuan
besarnya nilai tarif penjualan listrik mengacu kepada Permen ESDM RI no. 17
tahun 2013. Analisa kelayakan ekonomi tarif penjualan listrik dilakukan dengan
mempergunakan 4 parameter yaitu PBP, NPV, IRR dan PI.
PLTS 1 Mwp Bangli merupakan pilot project dari Kementrian ESDM RI
berlokasi di Desa Kayubihi, Kabupaten Bangli Provinsi Bali yang pengelolannya
telah dihibahkan ke Pemkab Bangli - Bali. Mulai Nopember 2013 pengelolaan
PLTS Bangli dilaksanakan oleh Perusda Bukti Mukti Bhakti milik Pemkab
Bangli, dengan rata-rata pembangkitan energi pertahun 1.125.010 kWh. Total
present value LCC adalah Rp. 34.303.270.132,- Dari hasil perhitungan LCoE
didapatkan nilai tarif penjualan listrik skenario-1 sebesar Rp.4.683 / kWh dan
skenario-2 sebesar Rp. 2.201 /kWh. Hanya tarif skenario-2 yang nilainya dibawah
patokan tertinggi dari ketentuan Permen. Hasil perhitungan studi kelayakan
ekonomi dari tarif skenario-2 (Rp. 2.201 / kWh) dengan parameter PBP, NPV,
IRR dan PI memberikan keputusan layak diterima / memenuhi nilai
keekonomiannya.
Hasil perhitungan skenario-2 (Rp. 2.201,-/kWh § 86 VHQ.:K
memenuhi ketentuan Permen, memenuhi nilai keekonomian dan mempunyai nilai
keberlanjutan untuk dapat membangun kembali PLTS pada tahun 2033.
Keywords—Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya, Feed-in tariff, Levelized Cost of
Energy, Life Cycle Cost
vi
ABSTRACT
ECONOMIC VALUE ANALYSIS ELECTRICITY TARIFF
OF 1 MWP SOLAR POWER STATION IN BANGLI USING
LIFE CYCLE COST METHOD
Electrical energy has become a primary need for the modern society, the
electrical energy needs of average rat increased by 8% per year, while the fossil
as the main source of electrical energy is now diminishing availability. The
Government of Indonesia has taken in Kebijakan Energi Nasional (KEN) to
address this problem, one of the policy objectives are to achieve the national
energy mix with renewable energy's role recently optimized by 23% in 2025.
Solar Energy Generation (PLTS) is one of the renewable energy power
generation system which has the potential to 0.87 GW in Indonesia. PLTS
development is driven by feed-in tariff (FIT) policy established through KESDM
RI No. 17 in 2013.
Research is done in Bangli PLTS, by using a method of Life Cycle Cost
(LCC). LCC method is calculating all of its costs during the life cycle PLTS,
ranging from the cost of investment, operation & maintenance, replacement of
equipment, land rent, and insurance. Electricity sales tariff in this paper is
calculated by adding a profit margin in the calculation of Levelized Cost of
Energy (LCOE), while the value of LCOE is the total of present value LCC
divided by total present value of energy generated. The determination of the value
of electricity sales tariff refers to the Permen ESDM RI no. 17 in 2013. The
economic feasibility analysis of sales rates of electricity is done by using four
parameters: PBP, NPV, IRR and PI.
PLTS 1 MWp Bangli is a pilot project of the Ministry of Energy and
Mineral Resources of Indonesia is located in the village of Kayubihi, Bangli
Regency Bali Province, who management has been granted to Bangli regency Bali. Starting November 2013 Bangli PLTS management implemented by Perusda
Bukti Mukti Bhakti belonging Bangli regency, with an average of 1.12501 million
kWh per year energy generation. The total present value of LCC is Rp.
34,303,270,132, - From the calculation results obtained LCOE electricity sales
tariff value scenarios-1 of Rp.4.683 / kWh and scenario-2 Rp. 2,201 / kWh. Just a
scenario-2 tariff value is less than the highest standards of Permen ESDM. The
results of calculation of economic feasibility studies of the tariff scenario-2 (Rp.
2,201 / kWh) with the parameter PBP, NPV, IRR and PI provide a decent decision
received / meet economic value.
The results of the scenario-2 calculations (Rp. 2,201, - / kWh §86
cents / KWh), comply with Permen ESDM, meet the economic value and has a
value of sustainability to be able to rebuild the PLTS in 2033.
Keywords - Solar Power Station, Feed-in tariff, Levelized Cost of Energy, Life
Cycle Cost.
vii
DAFTAR ISI
Halaman
SAMPUL DALAM.................................................................................................. i
PERSYARATAN GELAR MAGISTER................................................................ ii
LEMBAR PERSETUJUAN PEMBIMBING........................................................ iii
PENETAPAN PANITIA PENGUJI TESIS........................................................... iv
UCAPAN TERIMA KASIH................................................................................. v
ABSTRAK ............................................................................................................. vi
ABSTRACT............................................................................................................ vii
DAFTAR ISI....................................................................................................... viii
DAFTAR GAMBAR ........................................................................................... xiii
DAFTAR TABEL............................................................................................... xiv
DAFTAR ISTILAH & SINGKATAN............................................................... xv
BAB I PENDAHULUAN .................................................................................... 1
1.1 Latar Belakang.......................................................................................... 1
1.2 Rumusan Masalah..................................................................................... 6
1.3 Batasan Masalah ....................................................................................... 7
1.4 Tujuan Penelitian ...................................................................................... 7
1.5 Manfaat Penelitian .................................................................................... 7
BAB II TINJAUAN PUSTAKA............................................................................ 8
2.1 State Of The Art Review............................................................................ 8
2.1.1 Penggunaan Metode Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) Untuk
Penghitungan Efisiensi Energi Pada Gedung Depo Penyimpan Arsip Di
Lembaga Arsip Nasional Republik Indonesia, Wulan Diah Puspitowati,
Tesis Universitas Gajah Mada 2013............................................................ 8
2.1.2 Dynamic Life Cycle Costing in Asset Management of Production
Equipments With Emphasis on Maintenance, Erdem Yksek, Osman
Chaudhary, Master Thesis Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, 2011. .............. 9
2.1.3 Penentuan tarif listrik berdasarkan metode revenue requirement dan
metode LRMC, Lisa Ambasari, Tesis Universitas Indonesia. ................ 10
2.1.4 Studi Tarif Listrik Dengan Menggunakan Metode Long Run
Marginal Cost Di Edtl Timor Leste, Norberto Soares, Tesis Universitas
Udayana 2011............................................................................................ 11
viii
2.1.5 Perumusan Tarif Pembelian Listrik Pada Regulasi Feed in Tariff
untuk Teknologi Photovoltaic Serta Analisa Penerapannya di Indonesia,
Ashadi, Tesis Universitas Indonesia 2012. ............................................... 12
2.2 Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya ( PLTS )............................................ 13
2.2.1 Sistem Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya ....................................... 14
2.2.2 Komponen PLTS............................................................................. 14
a. Generator Sel Surya (Photovoltaic Generator) ............................... 14
b. Modul Surya (Solar PV Modules) ................................................... 18
c. Inverter............................................................................................. 20
d. Charge Controller............................................................................ 23
e. Baterai.............................................................................................. 23
2.2.3 Variasi dalam Produksi Energi Modul Surya ................................. 25
a. Iradiasi (Irradiance).......................................................................... 25
b. Temperatur modul surya (temperature of the module).................... 26
c. Bayangan (Shading)......................................................................... 27
2.3 Sumber Energi Surya .............................................................................. 28
2.3.1 Sumber Energi Surya di Indonesia.................................................. 30
2.3.2 Produksi Energi per Tahun yang Diharapkan ................................. 31
2.4 Life Cycle Cost........................................................................................ 31
2.4.1 Life Cycle Cost Pada Majemen Aset.............................................. 33
2.4.2 . Life Cycle Costs Pada Sistem Energi ............................................ 35
2.4.3 Life Time PLTS ............................................................................... 36
2.5 Regulasi Feed in Tariff di Indonesia....................................................... 37
2.6 Regulasi Feed in Tariff Berbagai Negara di Dunia ................................ 40
2.7 Ekonomi Teknik...................................................................................... 42
2.7.1 Biaya (Cost) .................................................................................... 43
a. Jenis-Jenis Biaya (Cost Types) ........................................................ 45
b. Komponen Biaya (Cost Components) ............................................. 46
c. Elemen Biaya (Cost Elements) ........................................................ 47
2.7.2 Pendapatan (Revenues).................................................................... 48
2.7.3 Konsep Nilai Uang Terhadap Waktu .............................................. 50
a. Present Value (P) ............................................................................. 50
b. Future Value (F)............................................................................... 51
c. Faktor Diskonto ............................................................................... 51
2.7.4 Kriteria Penilaian Investasi ............................................................. 52
ix
a. Metode Net Present Value (NPV) ................................................... 53
b. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) .......................................................... 54
c. Metode Pay Back Period.................................................................. 55
d. Metode Profitability Index............................................................... 55
2.7.5 Salvage Value.................................................................................. 56
2.7.6 Asuransi PLTS ................................................................................ 57
2.7.7 Trend penurunan harga PV ............................................................. 58
2.8 Levelized Cost of Energy ( LCoE) .......................................................... 60
BAB III KERANGKA BERPIKIR, KONSEP, DAN HIPOTESIS
PENELITIAN ....................................................................................................... 62
3.1 Kerangka Berpikir................................................................................... 62
3.2 Konsep .................................................................................................... 63
3.3 Hipotesis Penelitian ................................................................................ 66
BAB IV METODE PENELITIAN ....................................................................... 67
4.1 Tempat dan Waktu Penelitian................................................................. 67
4.1.1 Tempat Penelitian............................................................................ 67
4.1.2 Waktu .............................................................................................. 67
4.2 Teknik Pengumpulan Data...................................................................... 68
4.3 Jenis dan Sumber Data............................................................................ 68
4.4 Variabel Penelitian.................................................................................. 69
4.5 Perangkat Keras dan Perangkat Lunak Pendukung ................................ 72
4.6 Tahapan Penelitian.................................................................................. 72
4.6.1 Tahap identifikasi dan pengumpulan data....................................... 72
4.6.2 Tahap pengolahan data.................................................................... 73
4.6.3 Tahap analisa................................................................................... 73
a. Tinjauan Tarif Penjualan Listrik terhadap Permen ESDM No. 17
tahun2013 ............................................................................................. 74
b. Analisa Kelayakan Ekonomi .......................................................... 74
4.6.4 Diagram alur penelitian................................................................... 74
BAB V HASIL PENELITIAN.............................................................................. 76
5.1 PLTS Bangli........................................................................................... 76
5.2 Sistem PLTS Bangli................................................................................ 77
x
5.3 Peralatan / Komponen PLTS Bangli....................................................... 78
5.3.1 PV Array ......................................................................................... 78
5.3.2 Modul Surya.................................................................................... 78
5.3.3 Penyangga Modul (Support Module) .............................................. 80
5.3.4 Inverter ............................................................................................ 81
5.3.5 Array Protection Panel .................................................................... 83
5.3.6 Panel Distribusi ............................................................................... 83
5.3.7 Transformator Penaik Tegangan (Step Up Transformer) ............... 84
5.3.8 Penyalur Petir Konvensional.......................................................... 85
5.3.9 Remote Monitoring System ............................................................ 86
5.3.10 Environmental Monitoring Device ................................................. 87
5.4 Pengelolaan PLTS Bangli ....................................................................... 88
5.5 Energi Yang Dibangkitkan ..................................................................... 89
BAB VI PEMBAHASAN..................................................................................... 94
6.1 Life Cycle Cost PLTS Bangli.................................................................. 94
6.1.1 Biaya Investasi Awal ....................................................................... 94
6.1.2 Biaya Investasi Pembangunan PLTS pada tahun 2033.................... 95
6.1.3 Biaya Operasional dan Maintenance (O&M) .................................. 96
6.1.4 Biaya Penggantian Peralatan (Inverter) ........................................... 98
6.1.5 Biaya Sewa Lahan ......................................................................... 100
6.1.6 Biaya Asuransi ............................................................................... 101
6.1.7 Total LCC ...................................................................................... 103
6.2 Total Pembangkitan Energi................................................................... 104
6.3 Levelized Cost of Energi (LCoE) PLTS Bangli .................................... 107
6.4 Tarif Penjualan Listrik PLTS Bangli ................................................... 109
6.5 Hasil Penjualan Tenaga Listrik ............................................................. 112
6.6 Tinjauan terhadap Permen ESDM No. 17 Tahun 2013 ........................ 114
6.7 Analisa Kelayakan Ekonomi................................................................. 114
6.4.1 Pay Back Period (PBP) ................................................................. 115
6.4.2 Net Present Value (NPV) .............................................................. 116
6.4.3 Internal Rate of Return (IRR)........................................................ 117
6.4.4 Profitability Index ( PI) ................................................................. 118
BAB VII SIMPULAN DAN SARAN ............................................................... 119
xi
7.1 SIMPULAN .......................................................................................... 119
7.2 SARAN ................................................................................................. 120
DAFTAR PUSTAKA ......................................................................................... 121
xii
DAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar 1.1 Milestone PLTS.................................................................................. 2
Gambar 2.1 Contoh penerapan sel surya kedalam paparan panel surya ............... 13
Gambar 2.2 Struktur sel surya ............................................................................... 16
Gambar 2.3 Proses Kerja Sel Surya ...................................................................... 16
Gambar 2.4 Efek Fotovoltaik ................................................................................ 17
Gambar 2.5 Tahapan Generator Surya .................................................................. 18
Gambar 2.6 Bagian Modul surya crystalline silicon............................................. 19
Gambar 2.7 Modul surya mono-crystalline (kiri) dan poly-crystaline (kanan) .... 20
Gambar 2.8 Skema prinsip kerja inverter satu fasa............................................... 21
Gambar 2.9 Prinsip kerja teknologi PWM ............................................................ 22
Gambar 2.10 Pengaruh iradiasi terhadap tegangan dan arus modul surya ........... 26
Gambar 2.11 Pengaruh temperatur modul terhadap produksi energi modul surya 27
Gambar 2.12 Pengaruh shading terhadap modul surya ........................................ 28
Gambar 2.13 The word atlas of the average solar irradiance .............................. 29
Gambar 2.14 Hubungan modul surya dengan ketinggian matahari ...................... 29
Gambar 2.15 Ketinggian dan azimut matahari ..................................................... 30
Gambar 2.16 Top level of LCC tree...................................................................... 33
Gambar 2.17 Stage of a product life cycle ............................................................ 34
Gambar 2.18 Prosentase kerusakan pada bagian PLTS ........................................ 37
Gambar 2.19 Trend penurunan harga sistem PV .................................................. 60
Gambar 4.1 Diagram alir (flow chart) alur penelitian........................................... 75
Gambar 5.1 Foto satelit lokasi PLTS Bangli ........................................................ 76
Gambar 5.2 Tampak atas denah PLTS Bangli ...................................................... 77
Gambar 5.3 1 Unit PV Array PLTS Bangli .......................................................... 78
Gambar 5.4 Modul surya PLTS Bangli................................................................. 80
Gambar 5.5 Support Module dengan bahan besi metal digalvanis ....................... 81
Gambar 5.6 SUNGROW Grid-connected inverter tipe SG20KTL ...................... 82
Gambar 5.7 Array panel protection yang diletakkan di bawah modul PV ........... 83
Gambar 5.8 Panel distribusi ( 5 unit ) ................................................................... 84
Gambar 5.9. Gardu portal dengan Step up transformator 5 x 250 kVA............... 85
Gambar 5.10. Penyalur Petir PLTS Bangli ........................................................... 86
Gambar 5.11 Rumah monitoring PLTS Bangli..................................................... 87
Gambar 5.12 Meja monitoring PLTS Bangli ........................................................ 88
Gambar 5.13 Struktur organisasi pengelola PLTS Bangli .................................... 89
xiii
DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 2.1 Secondary battery type and carakteristic .............................................. 24
Tabel 3.1 Model penyusunan Tarif Penjualan Listrik ........................................... 65
Tabel 5.1. Electrical Characteristics .................................................................... 79
Tabel 5.2 Mechanical Characteristics .................................................................. 79
Tabel 5.3 Temperature Characteristics ................................................................ 80
Tabel 5.4 Pembangkitan energi PLTS Bangli tahun 2013 .................................... 90
Tabel 5.5 Pembangkitan energi PLTS Bangli tahun 2014 .................................... 91
Tabel 5.6 Jumlah hari pembangkitan energi PLTS Bangli tahun 2013 dan 2014. 93
Tabel 6.1. Biaya Operasi dan Maintenance PLTS Bangli .................................... 97
Tabel 6.2 Biaya penggantian inverter PLTS Bangli ............................................. 98
Tabel 6.3 Present Value total biaya penggantian inverter .................................... 99
Tabel 6.4 Biaya sewa lahan PLTS Bangli ........................................................... 101
Tabel 6.5 Biaya Asuransi PLTS Bangli ............................................................. 102
Tabel 6.6 Total LCC PLTS Bangli ..................................................................... 103
Tabel 6.7 Pembangkitan energi bulan Mei 2013 dan 2014................................. 104
Tabel 6.8 Rata-rata produksi energi PLTS Bangli pertahun .............................. 105
Tabel 6.9 Jumlah total pembangkitan energi PLTS Bangli selama 20 tahun ..... 106
Tabel 6.10 Tarif penjualan listrik skenario-1 dengan biaya investasi ................. 110
Tabel 6.11 Tarif penjualan listrik skenario-2 + biaya investasi th 2033 ............ 111
Tabel 6.12 Perhitungan penjualan tenaga listrik skenario-1 ............................... 112
Tabel 6.13 Perhitungan penjualan tenaga listrik skenario-2 ............................... 113
Tabel 6.14 Perhitungan Pay Back Period............................................................ 115
Tabel 6.15 Perhitungan NPV Tarif Penjualan Listrik ......................................... 116
Tabel 6.16 Perhitungan IRR Tarif Penjualan Listrik .......................................... 117
xiv
DAFTAR ISTILAH & SINGKATAN
Array
susunan dari modul surya
Azimuth
sudut putar dari arah Barat hingga Timur
Balance of system
komponen pendukung yang digunakan dalam sistem
PLTS seperti inverter, baterai, sistem kontrol dan lainlain
Blueprint
cetak biru, rancangan
Bypass diode
dioda baypass, paralel terhadap modul surya
Centralized PV plant
PLTS sentral, terpusat
Charge
pengisian energi listrik
Charge controller
alat kontrol pengisian dan pengosongan energi listrik
pada baterai
Conduction losses
rugi-rugi pada sambungan / hantaran
Depth of discharge
batasan pengosongan suatu baterai
Discharge
pengosongan muatan energi listrik pada baterai
Distributed PV plant
PLTS pola tersebar
Feed-in tariff
tarif pembelian energi listrik yang terkirim ke jaringan
listrik (PLN)
Frame
bingkai
Grid-connected PV plant PLTS terhubung dengan jaringan listrik
Inklinasi
sudut antara bidang yang menjadi acuan dengan bidang
yang diukur kemiringannya
Irradiance
iradiasi, jumlah tenaga surya tersedia per satuan luas
selama periode waktu tertentu
Junction box
kotak sambung
Kwh-meter
alat ukur dan pencatat energi listrik
Life time
usia pakai
Mono-Crystalline
Kristal silikon yang bersifat homogen, murni
Overdischarge
pengosongan berlebih
xv
Photovoltaic
fotovoltaik, proses perubahan energi matahari secara
langsung menjadi energi listrik melalui sel surya
Present Value
Nilai saat ini
Short circuit
hubung singkat
Stand-alone
berdiri sendiri, tidak terhubung jaringan utilitas
Standard test conditions kondisi pengujian / pengetesan standar
String
deret
Thermal pyranometer
alat ukur radiasi matahari secara langsung
Tracking system
sistem pelacak (untuk memposisikan array sesuai arah
gerak matahari)
µm
micrometer
AC
alternating current
Ah
ampere hour
BOS
balance of system
CEI
Contained Energy Indonesia
CO2
karbon dioksida
DC
direct current
DOD
depth of discharge
ESDM
energi dan sumber daya mineral
FiT
feed-in tariff
IEC
Internasional Electrotechnical Commission
KEN
kebijakan energi nasional
Kepmen
Keputusan Menteri
KESDM
Kementrian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral
kV
kilovolt
kVA
kilovolt-ampere
kW
kilowatt
kWh
kilowatt-hours
kWp
kilowatt peak
LEN
Lembaga Elektronika Nasional (sekarang PT. LEN)
LV
low voltage
xvi
m dpl
meter diatas permukaan laut
MCB
miniature circuit breaker
MW
megawatt
MWp
megawatt peak
Permen
Peraturan Menteri
Perpres
Peraturan Presiden
Pilot project
Proyek percontohan
PLN
Perusahaan Listrik Negara
PLTS
pembangkit listrik tenaga surya
PV
photovoltaic
PWM
pulse width modulation
r.m.s
root mean square
RI
Republik Indonesia
SEI
Surya Energi Indotama
Si
silicon
STC
standard test conditions
V
volt
xvii