Polish Wheat and Corn Growers See Big Yields Warsaw Poland 8 30 2017

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
POLICY

Voluntary

- Public

Date: 8/30/2017
GAIN Report Number:

Poland
Post: Warsaw

Polish Wheat and Corn Growers See Big Yields
Report Categories:
Grain and Feed
Agricultural Situation
Approved By:
Jonn Slette, Agricultural Attaché
Prepared By:

Mira Kobuszynska, Agricultural Specialist
Report Highlights:
Poland’s production of wheat, rye, mixed grains and triticale, barley, corn, and oats in MY 2017/18 is
forecast to reach 31.9 million metric tons (MMT), a 7.5 percent increase over MY 2016/17. MY
2017/18 export opportunities for Polish grain look to be higher than last year, mostly due to better
yields and higher area planted. MY 2017/18 grain quality varies from region to region. Post also
expects an increase in cereal milling and processing.

Grains Area and Production

Post forecasts that total Polish production of wheat, rye, mixed grains and triticale, barley, corn, and
oats in MY 2017/18 is forecast to reach 31.9 MMT, a 7.5-percent increase over MY 2016/17. This
increase is the result of better average yields and larger area planted for cereal crops over last year. The
biggest production increases are forecast for rye (27.3 percent) and mixed grains and triticale (28.4
percent). Feed-grain production increased in MY 2017/18 due to expanded on-farm use for livestock
feed.
The total acreage of winter and spring crops in MY 2017/18 is estimated at 7.75 million hectares (Ha), a
5.4-percent increase over MY 2016/17. Area planted exceeded last year’s acreage, with rye (18.3
percent) and mixed grains and triticale (4.1 percent) accounting for the largest increases.
Planting conductions for winter cereal crops were favorable and provided a good start for the 2017 crop.

Frequent precipitation during fall 2016 improved soil moisture and seed germination. Winter weather
was generally good and created favorable growing conditions in Poland, despite low temperatures and
lack of snow cover in January 2017. Winterkill losses occurred mostly in eastern regions, but they were
relatively isolated. Planting concluded for oats and spring wheat by the end of March, following delays
due to cold weather. Frosts through mid-May also caused some damage, particularly for spring-planted
crops. Warm days in June made for good growing conditions in that month, although storms in July and
August caused isolated rain, wind, and hail damage, particularly in northwest Poland, which
experienced particularly severe weather in mid-August. Harvests are delayed in that region as a result.
High soil moisture also increased incidents of mold and therefore lower grain quality in some regions.
MY 2017/18 grain quality tended to vary region to region and overall quality is generally lower than in
MY 2016/17. Wet weather during harvest negatively affected quality and will lead to another
consecutive year of higher feed-grain stocks. Northwestern growers are also experiencing fusarium
fungus infestations.
Polish wheat production in MY 2017/18 is forecast at 11.3 MMT, a 4.4-percent over the previous year.
Wheat acres in MY 2017/18 are estimated at 2.4 million Ha, a one-percent increase over the previous
year. Domestic consumption will increase due to higher industrial and feed usage. MY 2017/18 winter
wheat yields are estimated higher than in MY 2016/17. Spring wheat yields will be generally consistent
with last year’s levels.
Corn acreage in MY 2017/18 increased to 650,000 Ha, a 9.2-percent over last year. Polish farmers
shifted more acres into corn based on expectations of higher returns and favorable opportunities to

export. Polish corn end-users include the feed industry, on-farm usage for livestock feed, the biofuel
industry, and the potable-alcohol industry. Almost 80 percent of domestic corn use will be fed to
livestock in MY 2017/18, driven largely by Poland’ expanding poultry sector. In MY 2016/17
industrial poultry production (excluding on-farm production) increased by about 16 percent. Total
poultry and poultry products exports (quantity basis) was 19 percent higher than the year before. Corn
growers expect a good harvest this year, excepting for the Lower Silesia region, where heavy hail
damage occurred in mid-August. Polish corn quality can vary by region and those areas most affected
by heavy rainfall in August may be prone to mold and fungus damage.
In MY 2017/18 mixed grains and triticale production is estimated higher than last year, driven largely
by more on-farm animal production. Despite an increase in area planted and production of mixed

grains, it remains lower than in previous years due to flat domestic hog production. Mixed grains and
triticale use for bioethanol production is relatively small, accounting for only 2-3 percent of domestic
use. Growth in triticale production and diminishing production of mixed grains is expected to continue
in the long term. Triticale replaces mixed grains for feed use.
Area Planted by Variety 2015 – 2017 (000) Ha
2015
2016 2017*
Structure of sowings
in 2016

(%)
Wheat
2,400 2,384
2,400
32.4
Rye
725
761
900
10.3
Mixed grains and
2,329 2,209
2,300
30.0
triticale
Barley
840
926
1000
12.6

Corn
670
595
650
8.2
Oats
461
478
500
6.5
Total
7,425 7,353
7,750
100.0

Structure of sowings
in 2017
(%)
31.0
11.6

29.6
12.9
8.4
6.5
100.0

Source: Main Statistical Office, Poland
*estimate

Production by Variety 2015 – 2017 (000) MT
2015
2016
2017*

Wheat
Rye
Mixed grains and
triticale
Barley
Corn

Oats
Total

11,000
2,013

10,828
2,200

11,300
2,800

7,589

7,518

8,100

2,961
3,156

1,220
27,939

3,441
4,343
1,358
29,688

3,800
4,400
1,500
31,900

Source: Main Statistical Office, Poland
*estimate

Production by Variety

Structure of
production

in 2016
(%)

Structure of
production
in 2017
(%)
36.5
7.4

25.3
11.6
14.6
4.6
100.0

35.4
8.8
25.4
11.9

13.8
4.7
100.0

Total Production
(000) MT
2016
2017*
Winter wheat
Spring wheat
Wheat total
Rye
Winter triticale
Spring triticale
Triticale total
Winter barley
Spring barley
Barley total
Winter mixed grains
Spring mixed grains

Mixed grains total
Oat
Corn
TOTAL

8,958
1,870
10,828
2,200
4,520
583
5,103
619
2,822
3,441
195
2,220
2,415
1,358
4,343
29,688

9,600
1,700
11,300
2,800
4,500
500
5,000
900
2,900
3,800
300
2,800
3,100
1,500
4,400
31,900

Source: Main Statistical Office
*FAS Warsaw forecast

Yields by Variety

Winter wheat
Spring wheat
Wheat total
Rye
Winter triticale
Spring triticale
Triticale total
Winter barley
Spring barley
Barley total
Winter mixed grains
Spring mixed grains
Mixed grains total
Oat
Corn
TOTAL

Yields
(000) MT/Ha
2016 2017
4.72
4.97
3.83
3.84
4.54
2.89
3.13
3.71
3.94
3.17
3.25
3.64
4.46
4.46
3.58
3.70
3.72
3.24
3.44
2.98
3.13
3.0
2.84
2.95
7.29
6.77*
4.0
4.1

Source: Main Statistical Office

Change year
to year
2017/2016
(000) MT
+642
-170
+472
+600
-20
-83
-103
+281
+78
+359
+105
+580
+685
+142
+57
+2,212

Change year
to year
2017/2016
( %)
+7.2
-9.1
+4.4
+27.3
-0.4
-14.2
-2.0
+45.4
+2.8
+10.4
+53.8
+26.1
+28.4
+10.5
+1.3
+7.5

Grain Processing and Consumption
Polish cereal milling and processing in MY 2017/18 is expected to increase for the second straight year.
In MY 2016/17, cereal millings increased by 4.5 percent over the previous year, and reached 3.7
million MT according to the Polish Main Statistical Office. Groats, flakes, and flour production account
for the largest production increases. Bread and pasta production is forecast to slow in 2017/18 and
stabilize at levels consistent with last year. Strong profit margins for cereal processers increased capital
investments, especially in the milling and pasta sectors. Higher pasta production has increased demand
for imported durum during the past few years in Poland. Strong demand for feed is forecast in MY
2017/18, driven by poultry production and industrial feed demand.
Trade
Polish grain exports in MY 2017/18 are expected to exceed last year, with soft wheat (about 70 percent
of total grain export volume) leading the way. Corn exports are also forecast higher than last year. Onfarm storage capacity has increased recently and is roughly on par with production.
Saudi Arabia, Germany, Algeria, and Nigeria were the main export markets for Poland in MY 2016/17.
The share of non-EU export markets continued to increase, with wheat exports developing fastest.
Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and Nigeria accounted for a 43-percent cumulative share of total Polish wheat
(mostly feed wheat) exports during the first 10 months of MY 2016/17. During the first ten months of
MY 2016/17, Polish wheat exports exceeded the previous year’s total export volume by two percent.
Post forecasts MY 2017/18 exports of other grains like rye, barley, triticale and oats will be higher in
comparison with MY 2016/17. In MY 2016/17, the availability of corn from Poland increased
following low domestic stocks. In the first ten months of MY 2016/17 exports of corn from Poland
amounted to 1.1 MMT, double the volume of exports in MY 2015/16. The quality of corn for feedstuff
was assessed generally well.
Poland’s main international grain and cereal suppliers are other EU Member Countries, which
accounted for over 98 percent of Poland’s imports during the ten months of MY 2016/17. MY 2017/18
imports are forecast to diminish in comparison with MT 2016/17.
Grain Exports (000) MT
MY 2015/16

Wheat
Rye
Barley
Mixed grains & triticale
Oats

Total exports
3,707
519
177
527
89

Corn
Source: Global Trade Atlas Eurostat

Grain Imports (000) MT

560

MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17
10 Month Ending April
Total exports Total exports
2,910
3,772
458
351
175
77
482
368
82
72
7 Month Ending April
296
1,121

MY 2015/16

Wheat
Rye
Barley
Mixed grains & triticale
Oats

Total imports
804
4
132
11
19

Corn

502

MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17
10 Month Ending April
Total imports Total imports
498
734
4
12
101
158
7
8
18
5
7 Month Ending April
439
152

Source: Global Trade Atlas Eurostat

Poland Export Statistics
Commodity: 1001, Wheat And Meslin
10 Month Ending: April
Partner
Country

Uni
t

World

T

EU28

T

% Share

%
Change
2017/201
6
29.63

2015

2016

2017

2015

2016

2017

2,909,67
6
1,076,78
0
1,832,89
6
547,910

3,771,81
6
1,103,05
3
2,668,76
3
957,292

100.0
0
26.70

100.0
0
37.01

100.0
0
29.24

T

4,086,15
1
1,090,95
7
2,995,19
4
947,781

23.19

18.83

25.38

74.72

T
T
T
T
T

927,554
397,965
59,073
28,749

711,464
165,996
171,664
155,084
33,237

701,106
320,416
316,560
225,296
211,329

22.70
9.74
0.00
1.45
0.70

24.45
5.70
5.90
5.33
1.14

18.59
8.49
8.39
5.97
5.60

- 1.46
93.03
84.41
45.27
535.82

T
T
T

382,188
192,864
91,667

340,612
93,300
129,026

173,183
147,954
115,708

9.35
4.72
2.24

11.71
3.21
4.43

4.59
3.92
3.07

- 49.16
58.58
- 10.32

T
T

25,200
69,400

127,249
51,000

101,895
93,497

0.62
1.70

4.37
1.75

2.70
2.48

- 19.92
83.33

Non-EU 28
Saudi
Arabia
Germany
Algeria
Nigeria
Spain
Mozambiqu
e
Egypt
Kenya
South
Africa
Cuba
Tanzania

Quantity

Source: Global Trade Atlas Eurostat

2.44

Partner Country

Unit

World
EU28
Non EU 28
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Germany

T
T
T
T
T

Poland Import Statistics
Commodity: 1001, Wheat And Meslin
10 Month Ending: April
Quantity
% Share
2015
2016
2017
2015
2016
2017
487,929 497,642 734,136 100.00 100.00 100.00
461,316 482,905 721,291
94.55
97.04
98.25
26,613
14,737
12,845
191,826 167,089 303,660
39.31
33.58
41.36
148,957 180,721 292,013
30.53
36.32
39.78
62,084
57,651
64,658
12.72
11.58
8.81

% Change
2017/2016
47.52
49.37
81.74
61.58
12.15

Source: Global Trade Atlas Eurostat

Partner
Country
World
EU28
Non EU
Germany
Netherlands

Unit
T
T
T
T

2015
437,532
429,015
8,517
393,366
67

Poland Export Statistics
Commodity: 1005, Corn
7 Month Ending: April
Quantity
% Share
2016
2017
2015
2016
2017
296,306 1,120,585 100.00 100.00 100.00
295,366 1,051,797
98.05
99.68
93.86
940
68,788
241,942
644,995
89.91
81.65
57.56
43
176,764
0.02
0.01
15.77

% Change
2017/2016
278.18
256.10
166.59


Source: Global Trade Atlas Eurostat

Poland Import Statistics
Commodity: 1005, Corn
7 Month Ending: April
Partner
Country
World
EU28
Non EU
Ukraine
Slovakia
Czech
Republic

Unit
T
T
T
T
T

2015
100.00
83.07

2016
100.00
26.42

2017
100.00
61.97

%
Change
2017/2016
- 65.40
- 18.83

1.07
28.73
19.42

64.26
4.70
4.08

23.90
22.50
17.90

- 87.13
65.52
51.82

Quantity
2015
194,831
161,837
32,994
2,076
55,981
37,845

2016
439,439
116,099
323,340
282,372
20,673
17,930

% Share
2017
152,063
94,234
57,829
36,337
34,218
27,222

Argentina
United States

T
T

26,274
374

37,844
527

21,111
250

13.49
0.19

8.61
0.12

13.88
0.16

- 44.22
- 52.56

Source: Global Trade Atlas Eurostat

MY= Poland’s local marketing year is July-June, except for corn which is October-September.