Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO IJ)

  (ADRO IJ) Adaro Energy Tbk Tersenyum Simpul

  Company Report | Nov 7, 2018 Performa 3Q18: Bottom Line, Terpukul Beban Non-Rutin Pada 3Q18, ADRO mencatatkan pendapatan sebesar USD1,0 miliar (+24,8% q-q,

• 18,8% y-y). Sementara, laba bersih pada 3Q18 tercatat USD117 juta (-3,0% q-q, -

Buy

  21,8%y-y). Secara kumulatif, pada 9M18, laba bersih ADRO mencapai USD313

Dec 2019 TP (IDR) 1,970

  juta atau 71,2% dari estimasi laba bersih 2018F versi kami dan 72,1% versi Consensus Price (IDR) 2,471 konsensus. Laba bersih tergerus oleh biaya transisi (beban operasional non-rutin)

  TP to Consensus Price

• 20.3% senilai USD77,7 juta, terkait akuisisi tambang Kestrel dari Rio Tinto.

  vs. Last Price

• 24.3%

  Ulasan Operasional 3Q18: Produksi Memuaskan Musim kemarau pada 3Q18 berkorelasi positif terhadap total produksi batu bara

  Shares data ADRO yang mencapai 14,9 juta ton (+13,8% q-q, 4,8% y-y). Secara kumulatif, pada Last Price (IDR)

  1,575

  9M18 total produksi tercatat 38,9 juta ton, mencapai 69,4% dari target produksi Price date as of

  Nov 5, 2018

  ADRO full-year 2018. Stripping ratio 3Q18 tercatat sebesar 5,4x (vs. 4,9x pada 52 wk range (Hi/Lo)

  2,650 / 1,565

  2Q18 dan 5,0x pada 3Q17). Total volume penjualan 3Q18 tercatat sebesar 15,4 Free float (%)

  43.6

  juta ton, terdiri dari 11,4 juta ton penjualan ekspor dan 4,0 juta ton penjualan Outstanding sh.(mn)

  31,986 domestik.

  Market Cap (IDR bn)

  51,497

  Prospek Harga Batu Bara 4Q18: Berharap Histori Terulang Market Cap (USD mn)

  3,450

  Kami mengamati histori dalam 8 tahun terakhir: musim dingin pada 4Q selalu Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)

  46.46

  menjadi peak season penguatan harga batu bara dunia. Hal itu didorong beberapa Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)

  83.53

  faktor klasik: 1) Defisit pasokan, akibat penurunan produksi; 2) Peningkatan Foreign Ownership

  32.3%

  permintaan bahan bakar oleh pembangkit listrik karena peningkatan konsumsi listrik penghangat ruangan di negara-negara Asia dan Eropa; 3) Penurunan pasokan Mining listrik dari PLTA dan PLTG karena banyak air terjun yang membeku dan harga gas

  Coal alam dunia yang saat ini dalam fase bullish. Kami optimis harga batu bara dunia

  Bloomberg ADRO IJ masih terjaga di atas USD90/ton pada full-year 2018F.

  Reuters Valuasi Cukup Menarik, Pertahankan Rekomendasi Beli Seiring fase bullish harga batu bara, kami optimis peningkatan Average Selling

  Share Price Performance Price (ASP) tetap menjadi kunci kinerja ADRO di sisa 2018 ini. Kami tetapkan target harga Rp1.970 dengan implikasi P/E sebesar 7,4x. Risiko kunci target kami: 1) Pelemahan harga batu bara dunia,2) Peningkatan biaya produksi.

  Adaro Energy Tbk | Summary (USD mn) 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E

  Sales 3,258 3,639 3,884 4,242

  Sales growth

  29.1% 11.7% 6.7% 9.2% EBITDA 1,206 1,331 1,277 1,283 Net Profit 483 439 552 628 EPS (IDR) 206 210 266 305

  EPS growth

  44.4% -9.2% 25.7% 13.9%

  YTD

  1M

  3M

  12M

  BVPS (IDR) 1,746 2,120 2,333 2,565 Abs. Ret.

• 14.8% -14.1% -18.1% -16.6% EBITDA margin 37.0% 36.6% 32.9% 30.3% Rel. Ret.
• 5.5% -11.1% -14.0% -12.2% NPM 14.8% 12.1% 14.2% 14.8% ROE 11.3% 9.5% 10.9% 11.9% ROA 6.9% 5.8% 6.8% 7.6% ROIC 10.2% 9.5% 9.5% 10.1% P/E 9.0x 7.6x 5.9x 5.2x

  P/BV 1.1x 0.7x 0.7x 0.6x

Firman Hidayat

  EV/EBITDA 3.7x 2.6x 2.5x 2.3x

• 62 21 797 6202, ext:170

  DPS (IDR)

  60 72 74 80

  firman@nhsec.co.id Dividend yield 3.2% 4.5% 4.7% 5.1%

  Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia

  Adaro Energy Tbk www.nhsec.co.id

  Source: Company Data, NHKS Research Every 4Q is peak season for coal price (USD/Mt)

  Source: Bloomberg, NHKS Research Less rainy days is positive factor for coal production

  Revenue breakdown in 9M18 Source: Company Data, NHKS Research

  3Q18 coal production (Mt) increase of 13,8% q-q Source: Company Data, NHKS Research

  Performance Highlights

  3Q18: Non-recurring cost hit net profit margin Source: Company Data, NHKS Research

  OB removal (Mbcm) & stripping ratio(x) rose in 3Q18 Source: Company Data, NHKS Research

  Adaro Energy Tbk www.nhsec.co.id

  3Q18 review (USD mn)

  3Q18

  4Q18E

  3Q17

  4Q17

  1Q18

  2Q18 Actual Estimate y-y q-q surprise

  Sales 890 819 764 846 1,057 997 18.8% 24.8% 6.0% 972

  9.5% 282

  Gross Profit 327 282 226 266 387 353 18.3% 45.5%

  Gross Margin 36.7% 34.4% 29.6% 31.4% 35.4% -0.1% 1.2% 29.0%

  36.6% 5.2%

   285 225 170 229 355 278 24.7% 55.1% 27.8%

  EBIT

  EBIT Margin 32.0% 27.4% 22.3% 27.1% 27.9% 1.6% 5.7% 25.0%

  33.6% 6.6% EBITDA 338 273 266 316 445 346 31.6% 40.9% 28.7% 304

  EBIT Margin 38.0% 33.4% 34.8% 37.4% 34.7% 4.1% 7.4% 31.3%

  42.1% 4.8%

  

Net Profit 150 111 74 121 117 167 -21.8% 3.0% -29.7% 126

• - Net Margin 16.9% 13.5% 9.7% 14.3% 16.8% 13.0%

  11.1% -5.8% -3.2% -5.6%

  Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research Earnings revision (USD mn) 2018E 2019E 2020E

  3,639 3,884 4,242

• Revised Sales
>Previous 3,690 3,932 4> -Change -1.4% -1.2% -1.2%

  1,160 1,206 1,317

• Revised Gross Profit
• Previous 1,254 1,392 1,385
• Change -7.5% -13.3% -4.9%
• Revised 31.9% 31.1% 31.1% Gross Margin

  34.0% 35.4% 32.2%

• Previous EBIT -Revised 998 1,032 1> -Previous 974 1,120 1
• Change 2.4% -7.8% -2.0%

  27.4% 26.6% 26.6%

  EBIT Margin -Revised

• Previous 26.4% 28.5% 26.8% EBITDA -Revised 1,331 1,277 1> -Previous 1,262 1,481 1
• Change 5.5% -13.8% -6.0%

  36.6% 32.9% 30.3%

  EBITDA Margin -Revised

• Previous 34.2% 37.7% 31.8%
>- -Previous 483 558 671
• -Change -9.2% -1.1% -6.3%

  

Net Profit Revised 439 552 628

• Revised 12.1% 14.2% 14.8% Net Margin

  13.1% 14.2% 15.6%

• Previous

  Source: NHKS research

• 24.3%

  8.6% 31.6% 23.4x 8.3x

  PEABODY ENERGY 3,990 8,181 5,702 753 N/A 13.2% 20.7% 7.0x 1.2x

  AMERICA

  INNER MONGOLIA 3,465 12,996 5,582 773 3.1% 13.9% 17.2% 5.2x 0.8x SHANXI LUAN 3,494 10,216 3,353 476 16.6% 14.2% 14.0% 7.8x 1.0x

  CHINA

  CAMECO COAL 4,788 6,210 1,613 -43 80.8% -2.7% -1.1% N/A 1.3x

  CANADA

  WHITEHAVEN COAL 3,673 3,276 1,750 407 29.3% 23.3% 15.5% 9.2x 1.5x

  Australia

  BANPU COAL 2,772 8,251 3,128 213 31.1% 6.8% 8.3% 13.2x 1.1x

  THAILAND

  COAL INDIA 22,488 19,572 12,673 1,089

  Adaro Energy Tbk www.nhsec.co.id

  India

  ITMG 1,828 1,359 1,750 250 25.4% 14.3% 27.6% 7.2x 2.0x PTBA 3,450 1,618 1,544 398 79.2% 25.8% 42.8% 8.7x 3.5x BUMI 733 3,696 825 315 21.9% 38.2% N/A 2.3x N/A

  ADRO 3,450 6,814 3,486 424 -14.9% 12.1% 11.9% 8.2x 0.9x

  Source: Bloomberg Company Market Cap (USD mn) Asset (USD mn) Sales LTM (USD mn) Net Profit LTM (USD mn) Net Profit Growth LTM Net Profit Margin ROE LTM P/E LTM P/BV Indonesia

  

net profit margin cukup besar, yaitu sebesar 11,9% dan 12,1%, saham ADRO secara valuasi berada pada rasio P/E sebesar 8,2x

dan P/BV sebesar 0,9x masih cukup menarik untuk diperdagangkan.

  Indonesia menduduki peringkat kelima negara penghasil batu bara terbesar di dunia. Pada 2017, Indonesia mampu memproduksi 461 juta ton batu bara dan mengekspor 364 juta ton batu bara. ADRO sebagai salah satu penghasil batu bara terbesar menargetkan total produksi sebesar 56 juta ton pada 2018. Memiliki aset dan penjualan terbesar di Indonesia dengan ROE dan

  Daya Saing ADRO di Pasar Batu Bara Global

  Secara garis besar, bisnis utama ADRO meliputi bisnis pertambangan batu bara, kontraktor jasa pertambangan, jasa logistik pertambangan, dan pembangkit listrik tenaga batu bara. Model bisnis ADRO yang terintegrasi vertikal telah terbukti kokoh dalam mengarungi siklus naik turun batu bara, dengan bisnis non pertambangan batu bara memberikan basis pendapatan yang solid untuk menjaga volatilitas batu bara. Kontribusi dari bisnis non pertambangan batu bara terhadap EBITDA ADRO terus meningkat dan hingga saat ini mencapai sekitar 20%.

  Adaro Energy telah berkembang menjadi organisasi yang terintegrasi secara vertikal, dengan anak-anak perusahaan yang berpusat pada energi pertambangan, transportasi dengan kapal besar, pemuatan di kapal, pengerukan, jasa pelabuhan, pemasaran dan penghasil listrik. Perusahaan ini mengoperasikan pertambangan batu bara tunggal terbesar di Indonesia (di Kalimantan Selatan) dan bertujuan menjadi grup pertambangan dan energi besar di Asia Tenggara.

  Global Coal Companies PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) adalah perusahaan pertambangan unggul dan produsen batu bara terbesar kedua di Indonesia.

  Sekilas tentang ADRO

  Adaro Energy Tbk www.nhsec.co.id

  Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 1 year Dynamic Forward P/E band | Last 1 year Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research Rating and Target Price Update Target Price Revision Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus

• 4.3% 05/30/2018 Buy 2,500 (Dec 2019) 1,830 2,613 +36.6%

  11/7/2018 Buy 1,970 (Dec 2019) 1,585 2,471 +24.3% -20.3%

  Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price Source: Bloomberg

  Source: NHKS research

NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings

  1. Period: End of year target price

  2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication

   Buy : Greater than +15%

   Hold : -15% to +15%  Sell : Less than -15%

  Adaro Energy Tbk www.nhsec.co.id

  Summary of Financials

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