12 july 2013 lpck pt bahana securitas
Asiamoney’s
2013
Best Domestic
Equity House
1 2 Ju ly 2 0 1 3
BUY
Lippo Cik a r a n g
Sect or: I ndust r ial Est at es ( Neut ral)
( Unchanged)
Rat ing m om ent um * : na
Price: I DR7,300
TP: I DR9,300 ( Unchanged)
Sa lm a n Fa j a r i Ala m sya h
TP/ consensus: na
TP m om ent um * : na
E- m ail: salm an@bahana.co.id
JCI : 4,604
Phone: + 62 21 250 5081 ex t .3605
Sh ift in g pa r a digm
M a r k e t ing sa le s t o be dom ina t e d by r e side nt ia l proj e ct s
LPCK has confirm ed a planned shift in it s m arket ing sales focus, m oving from
indust rial land t o resident ial sales, including sales from apart m ent s and
landed house proj ect s. This is t o increase landbank efficiency, which is below
all indust rial peers under our coverage ( Exhibit 8) . Based on LPCK’s 1Q13
m arket ing sales, resident ial proj ect s dom inat e it s port folio, wit h 66: 34 split
bet ween resident ial and indust rial/ com m ercial ( 2012: 39: 61) .
2 0 1 3 r e side n t ia l sa le s t o j um p 7 5 % y- y on su cce ssful la u nche s
I n lat e 4Q12, LPCK launched “ Trivium Terrace” , it s first m aj or apart m ent
com plex, which was well- received by t he m arket as t he Nort h Tower was
90% sold ( t ot al 354 unit s) at ASP of I DR11.5m ( USD1,150) / sqm . Due t o t his
success, LPCK, in 1Q13, launched t he Sout h Tower wit h 422 unit s at ASP of
I DR13m ( USD1,300) / sqm . LPCK has also been aggresively prom ot ing it s
landed house undert akings, launching 2 new proj ect s in 2Q13 wit h pot ent ial
com bined sold- out sales value of I DR285b. Given t hese proj ect launches, we
expect 2013 resident ial sales t o j um p 75% y- y t o account for 60% of LPCK’s
t ot al 2013 m arket ing sales of I DR2.4t ( USD240m ) , up 15% y- y.
Lippo Cik a r a ng Cit y Ce nt e r m a st e r pla n r e a dy by 2 0 2 0
I n line wit h it s t arget t o becom e m ore resident ial, LPCK has a m ast er plan for
Lippo Cikarang Cit y Cent er ( LCCC) , a non- indust rial 300ha CBD area, wit h
expect ed com plet ion t arget by 2020 ( exhibit 18) . LCCC will feat ure landed
houses, apart m ent s and ot her support ing facilit ies, such as schools and
ent ert ainm ent cent ers, along wit h rent al office and com m ercial infrast ruct ure,
m eant t o raise LPCK’s recurring incom e ahead. Current m aj or recurring
incom es st em from recent ly- est ablised 5.3ha Japanese SME cent er ( 1Q13) ,
m ost ly rent ed out t o com ponent - r elat ed Japanese com panies wit h ARR of
I DR90k/ sqm / m ont h. Alt hough LCCC will not be com plet ed unt il 2020, LPCK
sales from t he proj ect will begin cont ribut ing in 2014. More det ails will
em erge, when LPCK officially unveils it s m ast erplan t o t he public in 2H13.
M ore la nd e fficie nt ; Re - it e r a t e BUY w it h I D R9 ,3 0 0 TP
While we expect m argins t o erode from 2014 on t he shift of focus from
indust rial t o resident ial ( Exhibit 12) , we view t his efficiency in ut ilizing current
low landbank access as posit ive, rat her being fully focused on j ust indust rial
sales. However, t his alt ers LPCK’s revenue recognit ion profile. On average,
indust rial land sales would only require 9- 12 m ont hs for m arket ing sales t o be
fully recognized as revenue, whereas landed houses and apart m ent s would
require 1- 1.5 years and 3 years respect ively. The change in m argins and
revenue profile has prom pt ed us t o revise down our 2013- 14 bot t om lines by
16% and 14% ( Exhibit 19) respect ively. Upside t o our num bers lies in new
access t o LPCK area at KM34.7 of Jakart a- Cikam pek t oll road ( Exhibit 15 &
16) expect ed t o com e on st ream by 4Q13. This could act as a posit ive
cat alyst for LPCK’s ASP. On valuat ion, we apply 40% discount t o our NAV
( exhibit 20) t o arrive at our I DR9,300 TP, which reflect s 27% upside. BUY.
Ex h ibit 1 . Ke y for e ca st s a n d va lu at ion s
Ye a r t o 3 1 D e c
2012 2013F 2014F 2015F
Revenue ( I DRb)
1,013 1,207 1,515 1,829
EBI T ( I DRb)
437
547
673
804
Net profit ( I DRb)
407
520
641
769
Bahana/ cns. ( % )
EPS ( I DR)
585
747
920 1,104
EPS growt h ( % )
58.4
27.7
23.2
20.0
EPS m om ent um *
EV/ EBI TDA ( x)
10.8
8.1
6.3
4.8
PER ( x)
12.5
9.8
7.9
6.6
FCFPS ( I DR)
na
na
na
23
FCF yield ( % )
na
na
na
0.3
BVPS ( I DR)
1,765 2,512 3,432 4,538
PBV ( x)
4.1
2.9
2.1
1.6
DPS ( I DR)
Yield ( % )
na
na
na
na
ROAA ( % )
16.7
16.0
15.8
15.6
ROAE ( % )
39.7
34.9
31.0
27.7
EBI T m argin ( % )
43.1
45.3
44.4
44.0
Net gearing ( % )
nc
nc
nc
nc
Ex hibit 2 . Com pa n y infor m a t ion
Share price ( 7/ 11/ 13)
:
Share out st anding ( m )
:
Mkt cap. ( I DRt / USDb)
:
3- M avg.daily t .o.( I DRb/ USDm ) :
Bloom berg code
:
7,300
696
5.2/ 0.5
40.4/ 4.2
LPCK I J
Ex hibit 3 . Sha r e h olde r s infor m a t ion
Kem uning Sait at am a ( % )
:
Free Float ( % )
:
42.2
57.8
Ex hibit 4 . Sha r e pr ice pe r for m a nce
( I DR)
( '000)
12,000
30,000
10,000
25,000
8,000
20,000
6,000
15,000
4,000
10,000
2,000
5,000
0
Jul- 12
Sep- 12
Nov- 12
Jan- 13
Mar- 13
Volum e ( RHS)
0
Jul- 13
May- 13
LPCK I J Px Last
Sour ce: Bloom ber g
Ex h ibit 5 . Re la t ive sha r e pr ice per for m a n ce
(% )
(% )
145
145
125
119.7
119.4
125
105
105
80.1
85
45
45
19.7
25
25
0.0
5
( 15)
85
65
65
yt d
( 35)
1M
3M
6M
( 13.0)
9M
5
12M
( 15)
( 35)
LPCK I J r elat ive t o JCI
Sour ce: Bloom ber g
Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making
their investment decision.
Please see the important disclaimer information on the back of this report
1 2 July 2 0 1 3
Lippo Cik a r a ng
Ye ar t o 3 1 D ecem ber
PROFI T & LOSS ( I D Rb)
Sa le s
Gr oss pr ofit
EBI TD A
Depreciat ion
EBI T
Net int erest inc./ ( expense)
Forex gain/ ( losses)
Ot her incom e/ ( expense)
Pr e - t a x pr ofit
Taxes
Minorit y int erest
Ext raordinary gain/ ( losses)
N e t pr ofit
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
2015F
902
388
311
7
304
( 13)
( 0)
11
301
( 44)
257
1 ,0 1 3
520
441
4
437
4
2
15
458
( 51)
407
1 ,2 0 7
644
554
7
547
16
17
580
( 60)
520
1 ,5 1 5
795
681
8
673
24
19
716
( 76)
641
1 ,8 2 9
950
813
9
804
34
22
860
( 91)
769
BALAN CE SH EET ( I D Rb)
Cash and equivalent s
S- T invest m ent s
Trade receivables
I nvent ories
Fixed asset s
Ot her asset s
Tot a l a sse t s
I nt erest bearing liabilit ies
Trade payables
Ot her liabilit ies
Tot a l lia bilit ie s
M in or it y int e r e st
Sh a r e h olde r s' e quit y
37
73
1,359
51
522
2 ,0 4 2
140
204
877
1 ,2 2 1
821
310
54
1,940
48
480
2 ,8 3 2
0
1,604
1 ,6 0 4
1 ,2 2 8
581
83
2,367
57
586
3 ,6 7 2
2
1,922
1 ,9 2 4
1 ,7 4 8
783
106
2,721
69
775
4 ,4 5 4
2
2,064
2 ,0 6 6
2 ,3 8 9
1,153
122
3,075
75
947
5 ,3 7 2
2
2,212
2 ,2 1 4
3 ,1 5 8
CASH FLOW ( I D Rb)
EBI T
Depreciat ion
Working capit al
Ot her operat ing it em s
Ope r a t in g ca sh flow
Net capit al expendit ure
Fr ee ca sh flow
Equit y raised/ ( bought )
Net borrow ings
Ot her financing
N e t ca sh flow
Cash flow at beginning
En din g ca sh flow
304
7
( 366)
256
200
( 321)
( 121)
140
( 18)
1
35
37
437
4
( 772)
632
301
( 469)
( 167)
( 140)
580
273
37
310
547
7
( 443)
223
334
( 490)
( 157)
427
270
310
581
673
8
( 372)
35
343
( 496)
( 153)
355
202
581
783
804
9
( 363)
56
506
( 490)
16
354
370
783
1 ,1 5 3
RATI OS
ROAE ( % )
ROAA ( % )
EPS growt h ( % )
Gross m argin ( % )
EBI T m argin ( % )
Net m argin ( % )
Payout rat io ( % )
I nt erest coverage ( x)
Net gearing ( % )
Debt s t o asset s ( % )
Debt or t urnover ( days)
Credit or t urnover ( days)
I nvent ory t urnover ( days)
37.1
13.8
293.3
43.0
33.7
28.5
22.5
12.5
6.9
27
78
na
39.7
16.7
58.4
51.4
43.1
40.2
na
nc
23
75
na
34.9
16.0
27.7
53.4
45.3
43.1
na
nc
25
1
na
31.0
15.8
23.2
52.5
44.4
42.3
na
nc
25
1
na
27.7
15.6
20.0
51.9
44.0
42.0
na
nc
25
1
na
M AJOR ASSUM PTI ON S
Grs. m rgn–ind/ com ( % )
Grs. m rgn–resident ial( % )
Revenue growt h ( % )
Market ing sales ( I DRb)
42.9
37.4
123.0
1,301
54.3
41.8
12.3
2,061
56.0
44.0
19.2
2,370
56.0
44.0
25.5
2,654
56.0
44.0
20.7
2,973
Ea r n ings n ot t ie d t o int e r e st
e x pe nse a s LPCK …
… r e m a ins fr e e from int e re st
be a rin g lia bilit ie s post loa n
re pa ym e nt in 2 0 1 2
St a ble a nd posit ive ope ra t ing
ca sh flow
Slight m a r gin cont ra ct ions
fr om 2 0 1 4 on shift ing focus t o
re side nt ia l sa le s
H ighe r
ASP
to
e nha n ce
m a r gin s
of
in du st r ia l
a nd
re side nt ia l sa le s
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
Salm an Faj ari Alam syah ( salm an@bahana.co.id) + 6221 2505081 ext . 3605
PT Ba h an a Se cu r it ies – Equit y Re se a r ch – Lippo Cik a r an g
2
1 2 July 2 0 1 3
Ex hibit 6 . M a rk e t ing sa le s, 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 5 F
(IDRb)
3,500
2,973
3,000
2,654
M a rk e t ing sa le s t o
incr e a se in 2 0 1 3 1 5 F CAGR of 1 3 %
w it h …
2,370
2,500
2,061
2,000
1,500
1,301
1,000
551
500
0
2011
2012
1Q13
2013F
2014F
2015F
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
Ex hibit 7 . M a rk e t ing sa le s pr opor t ion, 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 5 F
… r e side nt ia l sa le s
to
dom ina t e
port folio, a s …
(%)
100
90
31
39
80
70
60
63
65
40
38
35
2013F
2014F
2015F
66
60
50
40
69
61
30
20
34
10
0
2011
2012
1Q13
Industrial
Residential
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
Ex hibit 8 . I ndust r ia l pla y e rs - re m a in in g gr oss la n dba n k
(ha)
… LPCK a im s t o be
m or e la n d- e fficie n t ,
ha ving
posse sse d
t he sm a lle st le ft ove r la ndba nk vs.
it s in dust r ia l pe e rs
1,200
1,021
1,000
868
851
800
582
600
400
200
0
KIJA
BEST
SSIA
LPCK
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
PT Ba h an a Se cu r it ies – Equit y Re se a r ch – Lippo Cik a r an g
3
1 2 July 2 0 1 3
Ex hibit 9 . Qua r t e r ly M a r k e t ing sa le s, 1 Q1 1 - 1 Q1 3
(IDRb)
600
Triv ium
Te r r a ce
Apa rt m e nt
la un ch
in
4 Q1 2
ha s
boost e d
LPCK’s
r e side nt ia l sa le s
540
500
403
395
400
366
286
278
300
208
180
200
123
154
95
92
100
185
166
128
120127
69
0
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
Industrial
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
Residential
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
Ex hibit 1 0 . Re ve nue , 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 5 F
(IDRb)
Solid
m a r k e t ing
sa le s
to
suppor t
2 0 1 3 - 1 5 F r e ve n ue
CAGR of 2 2 % …
2,000
1,829
1,600
1,515
1,207
1,200
1,013
902
800
400
0
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
2015F
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
Ex h ibit 1 1 . Re ve n u e br e a k dow n , 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 5 F
100%
90%
80%
1
10
22
2
2
11
26
1
9
8
25
32
70%
1
7
… w it h in cr e a sing
cont r ibut ion
fr om
re side nt ia l proj e ct s
40
60%
50%
40%
30%
66
61
64
59
52
20%
10%
0%
2011
2012
Industrial & commercial land sales
2013F
Residential land sales
2014F
Estate management
2015F
Others
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
PT Ba h an a Se cu r it ies – Equit y Re se a r ch – Lippo Cik a r an g
4
1 2 July 2 0 1 3
Ex hibit 1 2 . LPCK m a r gins, 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 5 F
(%)
60
53.4
52.5
51.9
45.3
44.4
44.0
43.1
42.3
42.0
2013F
2014F
2015F
51.4
50
43.0
43.1
33.7
40.2
40
W e e x pe ct LPCK t o
e x pe r ie nce m a r gin
cont r a ct ion s
fr om
2 0 1 4 on t h e ba ck of
…
30
28.5
20
10
2011
2012
Gross margin
EBIT margin
Net margin
Source: Bahana est im at es
Ex hibit 1 3 . Gross m a r gin by t ype of la nd sa le s, 2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 2
… r e side nt ia l sa le s
be ing low e r - m a r gin
com pa r e d
to
indust ria l
sa le s;
how e ve r , …
(%)
54.3
55
52.7
50
45
42.9
41.8
40
37.4
34.9
35
30
2010
2011
Industrial & commercial land sales
2012
Residential land sales
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
Ex hibit 1 4 . N e t pr ofit , 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 5 F
(IDRb)
900
769
800
700
… ne t profit w ould
st ill
r e a ch
24%
CAGR in 2 0 1 3 - 1 5 F
641
600
520
500
407
400
300
257
200
100
0
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
2015F
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
PT Ba h an a Se cu r it ies – Equit y Re se a r ch – Lippo Cik a r an g
5
1 2 July 2 0 1 3
Ex h ibit 1 5 . N e w t oll r oa d a cce ss ( 1 )
N e a r ly
com ple t e d
ne w
t oll
r oa d
a cce ss a t 3 4 .7 k m
Ja k a r t a - Cik a m pe k
w it h …
Source: Com pany
Ex h ibit 1 6 . N e w t oll r oa d a cce ss ( 2 )
… dire ct e x it a cce ss
n e a r LPCK’s a re a
Source: Com pany
Ex hibit 1 7 . Ja pa ne se SM Es Ce nt e r
Re cu r r ing incom e s
fr om
5 .3 h a
Ja pa ne se
SM Es
Ce nt e r , w hich w a s
e st a blishe d in 1 Q1 3
Source: Com pany
PT Ba h an a Se cu r it ies – Equit y Re se a r ch – Lippo Cik a r an g
6
1 2 July 2 0 1 3
Ex hibit 1 8 . Lippo Cik a r a ng Cit y Ce nt e r m a st e r pla n
LCCC
m a st e r pla n
t a r ge t e d
for
com ple t ion by 2 0 2 0
Source: Com pany
Ex hibit 1 9 . Ea r nings r e visions
Old
( I D Rb)
EBI T
EBI T m argin ( % )
Net profit
Net m argin ( % )
New
% ch an ge s
2013F
2014F
2015F
2013F
2014F
2015F
2013F
721
45.6
623
41.1
818
45.0
745
41.0
-
547
45.3
520
43.1
673
44.4
641
42.3
-
( 24.1)
2014F
( 17.7)
2015F
-
( 16.4)
( 14.0)
-
Re vise d 2 0 1 3 - 1 4 F
bot t om line s by
16%
a nd 1 4 %
r e spe ct ive ly
Source: Bahana est im at es
Ex hibit 2 0 . N AV Ca lcu la t ion
Re side nt ia l
Undeveloped ( ha)
Developed ( ha)
La nd va lue ( I D Rb)
Net debt ( I DRb)
Cust om er deposit ( I DRb)
Tot a l va lue ( I D Rb)
No of shares ( b)
NAV/ share ( I DRb)
Discount t o NAV
Adj ust e d N AV ( I D R/ sh a r e )
43
155
7 ,2 3 7
I ndust r ia l
257
127
4 ,6 0 4
Tot a l
300
282
1 1 ,8 3 6
783
( 1,911)
1 0 ,7 0 7
0.7
15,384
40%
9 ,3 0 0
Ba se d on 4 0 %
discou nt t o ou r
N AV, w e a r r ive a t
ou r t a r ge t price
of I D R9 ,3 0 0 / sh
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
PT Ba h an a Se cu r it ies – Equit y Re se a r ch – Lippo Cik a r an g
7
1 2 July 2 0 1 3
Ex h ibit 2 1 . Pe e r com pa r ison , 2 0 1 3 F
NAV/ share ( I DR)
Target price ( I DR)
Discount TP ( % )
Current price ( I DR)
Disc t o NAV ( % )
Upside ( % )
BEST
1,494
1,190
20
660
55.8
8 0 .3
KI JA
1,059
445
58
315
70.3
4 1 .3
SSI A
2,167
1,800
17
1,120
48.3
6 0 .7
LPCK
15,384
9,300
40
7,300
52.5
2 7 .4
Shares out st anding ( b)
Market cap ( I DRb)
3m avg daily t urnover ( I DRb)
Market cap ( USDm )
3m avg daily t urnover ( USDm )
9.6
6,367
22.9
642
2.5
20.1
6,340
32.9
639
3.4
4.7
5,270
38.7
670
4.0
0.7
5,081
40.4
512
4.4
868
2,700
851
582
5,001
1,405
967
910
914
874
804
3.2
96.8
2,833
1,277
978
1,084
783
642
48.7
51.3
4,635
1,641
1,224
1,315
1,153
928
14.2
85.8
1,207
644
547
554
580
520
0.1
99.9
18.0
82.0
M a r gin ( % )
Gross m argin ( % )
Operat ing m argin ( % )
EBI TDA m argin ( % )
Pre- t ax m argin ( % )
Net m argin ( % )
68.8
64.7
65.1
62.2
57.2
45.1
34.5
38.3
27.7
22.7
35.4
26.4
28.4
24.9
20.0
53.4
45.3
45.9
48.1
43.1
51.2
43.3
45.0
40.9
36.0
Gr ow t h ( % )
Revenue
Gross profit
Operat ing profit
EBI TDA
Pre- t ax profit
Net profit
EPS growt h
45.6
68.3
72.6
72.6
68.9
70.9
49.4
102.2
48.5
56.4
58.9
71.1
68.8
68.4
30.0
26.6
33.4
30.2
31.3
31.3
31.3
19.2
23.8
25.3
25.5
26.8
27.7
27.7
52.6
43.7
49.0
49.0
52.0
52.1
46.1
PE ( x)
PBV ( x)
PEG ( x)
Debt t o equit y ( % )
Net gearing ( % )
EBI T/ net int . exp. ( x)
BVPS ( I DR/ share)
EPS ( I DR/ share)
DPS ( I DR/ share)
Dividend yield ( % )
ROAA ( % )
ROAE ( % )
7.9
2.3
0.2
21.3
8.0
28.6
281
83
17
2.5
28.3
37.8
9.8
1.4
0.1
44.4
33.7
4.3
228
32
11
3.5
8.5
15.0
5.7
2.2
0.2
82.3
9.0
16.3
519
197
18
1.6
18.0
45.9
9.8
2.9
0.4
nc
na
2,512
747
16.0
34.9
8.3
2.2
0.2
36.9
Land bank ( Ha) – gross
Revenue ( I DRb)
Gross profit ( I DRb)
Operat ing profit ( I DRb)
EBI TDA ( I DRb)
Pre- t ax profit ( I DRb)
Net profit ( I DRb)
% recurring t o t ot al revenue
% developm ent t o t ot al revenue
Se ct or
57.4
5 3 .4
23,058
2,462
Post ing
a bove
it s
a ve r a ge
m a rgin
pe e r s’
2.0
17.8
32.8
Source: Com pany,Bloom berg, Bahana est im at es
PT Ba h an a Se cu r it ies – Equit y Re se a r ch – Lippo Cik a r an g
8
Re se a rch: + 6 2 2 1 2 5 0 5 0 8 1
H a rry Su
harry.su@bahana.co.id
Senior Associat e Direct or
Head of Equit y Capit al Market & Research
St rat egy, Telcos, Consum er, Aviat ion
ext 3600
direct : + 62 21 250 5735
Te guh H a r t a nt o
t eguh.hart ant o@bahana.co.id
Associat e Direct or
Deput y Head of Research
Banks, Cem ent
ext 3610
Le ona r do H e nr y Ga va za
leonardo@bahana.co.id
Senior Research Manager
Aut om ot ive, Plant at ions, Heavy Equipm ent
ext 3608
Arga Sa m u dro
arga@bahana.co.id
Econom ist
ext 3602
St ifa nus Sulist yo
st ifanus.sulist yo@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Sm all cap
ext 3611
Adit ya Ek a Pra k a sa
adit ya.prakasa@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Poult ry
ext 3603
Sa lm a n Fa j a r i Ala m sya h
salm an@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Propert y, I ndust rial esat es. t oll road
ext 3605
Je nn ife r Fr e de r ik a Ya pply
Jennifer@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Coal, Oil and Gas
ext 3606
Rick y
ricky@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Met al m ining
ext 3615
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giovanni@bahana.co.id
Senior Research Associat e
ext 3604
Ze fa ny a An ge lin e H a lim
zefanya@bahana.co.id
Research Associat e
ext 3612
H a sa n
Hasan@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
I nfrast ruct ure
ext 3613
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chandra.w idj anarka@bahana.co.id
Technical Analyst
ext 3609
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nico@bahana.co.id
Research Associat e
ext 3614
D e a ling Room : + 6 2 2 1 2 5 0 5 5 0 8 ( D om e st ic I nst it u t iona l)
La ur e nsius Te ise r a n
laurensius@bahana.co.id
Research Associat e
ext 3601
+ 6 2 2 1 5 2 7 0 8 0 8 ( For e ign I nst it u t iona l)
M a de Ayu W ij a ya t i
m ade.ayu@bahana.co.id
Research Execut ive
ext 3607
+ 6 2 3 1 5 3 5 2 7 8 8 ( Sur a ba ya Br a nch )
H a se linda Rifm a n
haselinda@bahana.co.id
Equit y Sales
ext 2524
John M . D a sa a d
dasaad@bahana.co.id
Equit y Sales
ext 2549
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angky.am arylis@bahana.co.id
Sales Trader
ext 2525
Ashish Agr a w a l
ashish@bahana.co.id
Equit y Sales
ext 2553
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Suwardi@bahana.co.id
Equit y Sales
ext 2548
Jona t ha n Gr e gor ius M .T
Gregorius@bahana.co.id
Sales Trader
ext 2546
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yohanes@bahana.co.id
Manager, Surabaya Branch
ext 7250
H e a d Office
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I ndonesia
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ht t p: / / www.bahana.co.id
Sur a ba ya Br a n ch
Wism a BI I , Ground Floor
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Surabaya 60271
I ndonesia
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Fax. 62 31 546 1157
DI SCLAI MER
The inform at ion cont ained in t his report has been t aken from sources which w e deem reliable. Howev er, none of P.T. Bahana Securit ies and/ or it s affiliat ed com panies and/ or t heir r espect ive em ploy ees and/ or agent s
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IMPORTANT US REGULATORY DISCLOSURES ON SUBJECT COMPANIES
This m at erial was produced by Bahana Securit ies, solely for inform at ion purposes and for t he use of t he recipient . I t is
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t o significant variat ions. The abilit y t o assess such risks m ay also be lim it ed due t o significant ly lower inform at ion
quant it y and qualit y. By accept ing t his docum ent , you agree t o be bound by all t he foregoing provisions.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Bahana or it s Affiliat es m ay or m ay not have been beneficial owners of t he securit ies m ent ioned in t his report .
Bahana or it s affiliat es m ay have or not m anaged or co- m anaged a public offering of t he securit ies m ent ioned in
t he report in t he past 12 m ont hs.
Bahana or it s affiliat es m ay have or not received com pensat ion for invest m ent banking services from t he issuer
of t hese securit ies in t he past 12 m ont hs and do not expect t o receive com pensat ion for invest m ent banking
services from t he issuer of t hese securit ies wit hin t he next t hree m ont hs.
However, one or m ore of Bahana or it s Affiliat es m ay, from t im e t o t im e, have a long or short posit ion in any of
t he securit ies m ent ioned herein and m ay buy or sell t hose securit ies or opt ions t hereon eit her on t heir own
account or on behalf of t heir client s.
As of t he publicat ion of t his report Bahana does not m ake a m arket in t he subj ect securit ies.
Bahana or it s Affiliat es m ay or m ay not , t o t he ext ent perm it t ed by law, act upon or use t he above m at erial or
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referred t o in t his report .
Enclave Capit al LLC. is dist ribut ing t his docum ent in t he Unit ed St at es of Am erica. Bahana Securit ies accept s
responsibilit y for it s cont ent s. Any US cust om er wishing t o effect t ransact ions in any securit ies referred t o herein or
opt ions t hereon should do so only by cont act ing a represent at ive of Enclave Capit al LLC.
2013
Best Domestic
Equity House
1 2 Ju ly 2 0 1 3
BUY
Lippo Cik a r a n g
Sect or: I ndust r ial Est at es ( Neut ral)
( Unchanged)
Rat ing m om ent um * : na
Price: I DR7,300
TP: I DR9,300 ( Unchanged)
Sa lm a n Fa j a r i Ala m sya h
TP/ consensus: na
TP m om ent um * : na
E- m ail: salm an@bahana.co.id
JCI : 4,604
Phone: + 62 21 250 5081 ex t .3605
Sh ift in g pa r a digm
M a r k e t ing sa le s t o be dom ina t e d by r e side nt ia l proj e ct s
LPCK has confirm ed a planned shift in it s m arket ing sales focus, m oving from
indust rial land t o resident ial sales, including sales from apart m ent s and
landed house proj ect s. This is t o increase landbank efficiency, which is below
all indust rial peers under our coverage ( Exhibit 8) . Based on LPCK’s 1Q13
m arket ing sales, resident ial proj ect s dom inat e it s port folio, wit h 66: 34 split
bet ween resident ial and indust rial/ com m ercial ( 2012: 39: 61) .
2 0 1 3 r e side n t ia l sa le s t o j um p 7 5 % y- y on su cce ssful la u nche s
I n lat e 4Q12, LPCK launched “ Trivium Terrace” , it s first m aj or apart m ent
com plex, which was well- received by t he m arket as t he Nort h Tower was
90% sold ( t ot al 354 unit s) at ASP of I DR11.5m ( USD1,150) / sqm . Due t o t his
success, LPCK, in 1Q13, launched t he Sout h Tower wit h 422 unit s at ASP of
I DR13m ( USD1,300) / sqm . LPCK has also been aggresively prom ot ing it s
landed house undert akings, launching 2 new proj ect s in 2Q13 wit h pot ent ial
com bined sold- out sales value of I DR285b. Given t hese proj ect launches, we
expect 2013 resident ial sales t o j um p 75% y- y t o account for 60% of LPCK’s
t ot al 2013 m arket ing sales of I DR2.4t ( USD240m ) , up 15% y- y.
Lippo Cik a r a ng Cit y Ce nt e r m a st e r pla n r e a dy by 2 0 2 0
I n line wit h it s t arget t o becom e m ore resident ial, LPCK has a m ast er plan for
Lippo Cikarang Cit y Cent er ( LCCC) , a non- indust rial 300ha CBD area, wit h
expect ed com plet ion t arget by 2020 ( exhibit 18) . LCCC will feat ure landed
houses, apart m ent s and ot her support ing facilit ies, such as schools and
ent ert ainm ent cent ers, along wit h rent al office and com m ercial infrast ruct ure,
m eant t o raise LPCK’s recurring incom e ahead. Current m aj or recurring
incom es st em from recent ly- est ablised 5.3ha Japanese SME cent er ( 1Q13) ,
m ost ly rent ed out t o com ponent - r elat ed Japanese com panies wit h ARR of
I DR90k/ sqm / m ont h. Alt hough LCCC will not be com plet ed unt il 2020, LPCK
sales from t he proj ect will begin cont ribut ing in 2014. More det ails will
em erge, when LPCK officially unveils it s m ast erplan t o t he public in 2H13.
M ore la nd e fficie nt ; Re - it e r a t e BUY w it h I D R9 ,3 0 0 TP
While we expect m argins t o erode from 2014 on t he shift of focus from
indust rial t o resident ial ( Exhibit 12) , we view t his efficiency in ut ilizing current
low landbank access as posit ive, rat her being fully focused on j ust indust rial
sales. However, t his alt ers LPCK’s revenue recognit ion profile. On average,
indust rial land sales would only require 9- 12 m ont hs for m arket ing sales t o be
fully recognized as revenue, whereas landed houses and apart m ent s would
require 1- 1.5 years and 3 years respect ively. The change in m argins and
revenue profile has prom pt ed us t o revise down our 2013- 14 bot t om lines by
16% and 14% ( Exhibit 19) respect ively. Upside t o our num bers lies in new
access t o LPCK area at KM34.7 of Jakart a- Cikam pek t oll road ( Exhibit 15 &
16) expect ed t o com e on st ream by 4Q13. This could act as a posit ive
cat alyst for LPCK’s ASP. On valuat ion, we apply 40% discount t o our NAV
( exhibit 20) t o arrive at our I DR9,300 TP, which reflect s 27% upside. BUY.
Ex h ibit 1 . Ke y for e ca st s a n d va lu at ion s
Ye a r t o 3 1 D e c
2012 2013F 2014F 2015F
Revenue ( I DRb)
1,013 1,207 1,515 1,829
EBI T ( I DRb)
437
547
673
804
Net profit ( I DRb)
407
520
641
769
Bahana/ cns. ( % )
EPS ( I DR)
585
747
920 1,104
EPS growt h ( % )
58.4
27.7
23.2
20.0
EPS m om ent um *
EV/ EBI TDA ( x)
10.8
8.1
6.3
4.8
PER ( x)
12.5
9.8
7.9
6.6
FCFPS ( I DR)
na
na
na
23
FCF yield ( % )
na
na
na
0.3
BVPS ( I DR)
1,765 2,512 3,432 4,538
PBV ( x)
4.1
2.9
2.1
1.6
DPS ( I DR)
Yield ( % )
na
na
na
na
ROAA ( % )
16.7
16.0
15.8
15.6
ROAE ( % )
39.7
34.9
31.0
27.7
EBI T m argin ( % )
43.1
45.3
44.4
44.0
Net gearing ( % )
nc
nc
nc
nc
Ex hibit 2 . Com pa n y infor m a t ion
Share price ( 7/ 11/ 13)
:
Share out st anding ( m )
:
Mkt cap. ( I DRt / USDb)
:
3- M avg.daily t .o.( I DRb/ USDm ) :
Bloom berg code
:
7,300
696
5.2/ 0.5
40.4/ 4.2
LPCK I J
Ex hibit 3 . Sha r e h olde r s infor m a t ion
Kem uning Sait at am a ( % )
:
Free Float ( % )
:
42.2
57.8
Ex hibit 4 . Sha r e pr ice pe r for m a nce
( I DR)
( '000)
12,000
30,000
10,000
25,000
8,000
20,000
6,000
15,000
4,000
10,000
2,000
5,000
0
Jul- 12
Sep- 12
Nov- 12
Jan- 13
Mar- 13
Volum e ( RHS)
0
Jul- 13
May- 13
LPCK I J Px Last
Sour ce: Bloom ber g
Ex h ibit 5 . Re la t ive sha r e pr ice per for m a n ce
(% )
(% )
145
145
125
119.7
119.4
125
105
105
80.1
85
45
45
19.7
25
25
0.0
5
( 15)
85
65
65
yt d
( 35)
1M
3M
6M
( 13.0)
9M
5
12M
( 15)
( 35)
LPCK I J r elat ive t o JCI
Sour ce: Bloom ber g
Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making
their investment decision.
Please see the important disclaimer information on the back of this report
1 2 July 2 0 1 3
Lippo Cik a r a ng
Ye ar t o 3 1 D ecem ber
PROFI T & LOSS ( I D Rb)
Sa le s
Gr oss pr ofit
EBI TD A
Depreciat ion
EBI T
Net int erest inc./ ( expense)
Forex gain/ ( losses)
Ot her incom e/ ( expense)
Pr e - t a x pr ofit
Taxes
Minorit y int erest
Ext raordinary gain/ ( losses)
N e t pr ofit
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
2015F
902
388
311
7
304
( 13)
( 0)
11
301
( 44)
257
1 ,0 1 3
520
441
4
437
4
2
15
458
( 51)
407
1 ,2 0 7
644
554
7
547
16
17
580
( 60)
520
1 ,5 1 5
795
681
8
673
24
19
716
( 76)
641
1 ,8 2 9
950
813
9
804
34
22
860
( 91)
769
BALAN CE SH EET ( I D Rb)
Cash and equivalent s
S- T invest m ent s
Trade receivables
I nvent ories
Fixed asset s
Ot her asset s
Tot a l a sse t s
I nt erest bearing liabilit ies
Trade payables
Ot her liabilit ies
Tot a l lia bilit ie s
M in or it y int e r e st
Sh a r e h olde r s' e quit y
37
73
1,359
51
522
2 ,0 4 2
140
204
877
1 ,2 2 1
821
310
54
1,940
48
480
2 ,8 3 2
0
1,604
1 ,6 0 4
1 ,2 2 8
581
83
2,367
57
586
3 ,6 7 2
2
1,922
1 ,9 2 4
1 ,7 4 8
783
106
2,721
69
775
4 ,4 5 4
2
2,064
2 ,0 6 6
2 ,3 8 9
1,153
122
3,075
75
947
5 ,3 7 2
2
2,212
2 ,2 1 4
3 ,1 5 8
CASH FLOW ( I D Rb)
EBI T
Depreciat ion
Working capit al
Ot her operat ing it em s
Ope r a t in g ca sh flow
Net capit al expendit ure
Fr ee ca sh flow
Equit y raised/ ( bought )
Net borrow ings
Ot her financing
N e t ca sh flow
Cash flow at beginning
En din g ca sh flow
304
7
( 366)
256
200
( 321)
( 121)
140
( 18)
1
35
37
437
4
( 772)
632
301
( 469)
( 167)
( 140)
580
273
37
310
547
7
( 443)
223
334
( 490)
( 157)
427
270
310
581
673
8
( 372)
35
343
( 496)
( 153)
355
202
581
783
804
9
( 363)
56
506
( 490)
16
354
370
783
1 ,1 5 3
RATI OS
ROAE ( % )
ROAA ( % )
EPS growt h ( % )
Gross m argin ( % )
EBI T m argin ( % )
Net m argin ( % )
Payout rat io ( % )
I nt erest coverage ( x)
Net gearing ( % )
Debt s t o asset s ( % )
Debt or t urnover ( days)
Credit or t urnover ( days)
I nvent ory t urnover ( days)
37.1
13.8
293.3
43.0
33.7
28.5
22.5
12.5
6.9
27
78
na
39.7
16.7
58.4
51.4
43.1
40.2
na
nc
23
75
na
34.9
16.0
27.7
53.4
45.3
43.1
na
nc
25
1
na
31.0
15.8
23.2
52.5
44.4
42.3
na
nc
25
1
na
27.7
15.6
20.0
51.9
44.0
42.0
na
nc
25
1
na
M AJOR ASSUM PTI ON S
Grs. m rgn–ind/ com ( % )
Grs. m rgn–resident ial( % )
Revenue growt h ( % )
Market ing sales ( I DRb)
42.9
37.4
123.0
1,301
54.3
41.8
12.3
2,061
56.0
44.0
19.2
2,370
56.0
44.0
25.5
2,654
56.0
44.0
20.7
2,973
Ea r n ings n ot t ie d t o int e r e st
e x pe nse a s LPCK …
… r e m a ins fr e e from int e re st
be a rin g lia bilit ie s post loa n
re pa ym e nt in 2 0 1 2
St a ble a nd posit ive ope ra t ing
ca sh flow
Slight m a r gin cont ra ct ions
fr om 2 0 1 4 on shift ing focus t o
re side nt ia l sa le s
H ighe r
ASP
to
e nha n ce
m a r gin s
of
in du st r ia l
a nd
re side nt ia l sa le s
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
Salm an Faj ari Alam syah ( salm an@bahana.co.id) + 6221 2505081 ext . 3605
PT Ba h an a Se cu r it ies – Equit y Re se a r ch – Lippo Cik a r an g
2
1 2 July 2 0 1 3
Ex hibit 6 . M a rk e t ing sa le s, 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 5 F
(IDRb)
3,500
2,973
3,000
2,654
M a rk e t ing sa le s t o
incr e a se in 2 0 1 3 1 5 F CAGR of 1 3 %
w it h …
2,370
2,500
2,061
2,000
1,500
1,301
1,000
551
500
0
2011
2012
1Q13
2013F
2014F
2015F
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
Ex hibit 7 . M a rk e t ing sa le s pr opor t ion, 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 5 F
… r e side nt ia l sa le s
to
dom ina t e
port folio, a s …
(%)
100
90
31
39
80
70
60
63
65
40
38
35
2013F
2014F
2015F
66
60
50
40
69
61
30
20
34
10
0
2011
2012
1Q13
Industrial
Residential
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
Ex hibit 8 . I ndust r ia l pla y e rs - re m a in in g gr oss la n dba n k
(ha)
… LPCK a im s t o be
m or e la n d- e fficie n t ,
ha ving
posse sse d
t he sm a lle st le ft ove r la ndba nk vs.
it s in dust r ia l pe e rs
1,200
1,021
1,000
868
851
800
582
600
400
200
0
KIJA
BEST
SSIA
LPCK
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
PT Ba h an a Se cu r it ies – Equit y Re se a r ch – Lippo Cik a r an g
3
1 2 July 2 0 1 3
Ex hibit 9 . Qua r t e r ly M a r k e t ing sa le s, 1 Q1 1 - 1 Q1 3
(IDRb)
600
Triv ium
Te r r a ce
Apa rt m e nt
la un ch
in
4 Q1 2
ha s
boost e d
LPCK’s
r e side nt ia l sa le s
540
500
403
395
400
366
286
278
300
208
180
200
123
154
95
92
100
185
166
128
120127
69
0
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
Industrial
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
Residential
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
Ex hibit 1 0 . Re ve nue , 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 5 F
(IDRb)
Solid
m a r k e t ing
sa le s
to
suppor t
2 0 1 3 - 1 5 F r e ve n ue
CAGR of 2 2 % …
2,000
1,829
1,600
1,515
1,207
1,200
1,013
902
800
400
0
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
2015F
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
Ex h ibit 1 1 . Re ve n u e br e a k dow n , 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 5 F
100%
90%
80%
1
10
22
2
2
11
26
1
9
8
25
32
70%
1
7
… w it h in cr e a sing
cont r ibut ion
fr om
re side nt ia l proj e ct s
40
60%
50%
40%
30%
66
61
64
59
52
20%
10%
0%
2011
2012
Industrial & commercial land sales
2013F
Residential land sales
2014F
Estate management
2015F
Others
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
PT Ba h an a Se cu r it ies – Equit y Re se a r ch – Lippo Cik a r an g
4
1 2 July 2 0 1 3
Ex hibit 1 2 . LPCK m a r gins, 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 5 F
(%)
60
53.4
52.5
51.9
45.3
44.4
44.0
43.1
42.3
42.0
2013F
2014F
2015F
51.4
50
43.0
43.1
33.7
40.2
40
W e e x pe ct LPCK t o
e x pe r ie nce m a r gin
cont r a ct ion s
fr om
2 0 1 4 on t h e ba ck of
…
30
28.5
20
10
2011
2012
Gross margin
EBIT margin
Net margin
Source: Bahana est im at es
Ex hibit 1 3 . Gross m a r gin by t ype of la nd sa le s, 2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 2
… r e side nt ia l sa le s
be ing low e r - m a r gin
com pa r e d
to
indust ria l
sa le s;
how e ve r , …
(%)
54.3
55
52.7
50
45
42.9
41.8
40
37.4
34.9
35
30
2010
2011
Industrial & commercial land sales
2012
Residential land sales
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
Ex hibit 1 4 . N e t pr ofit , 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 5 F
(IDRb)
900
769
800
700
… ne t profit w ould
st ill
r e a ch
24%
CAGR in 2 0 1 3 - 1 5 F
641
600
520
500
407
400
300
257
200
100
0
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
2015F
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
PT Ba h an a Se cu r it ies – Equit y Re se a r ch – Lippo Cik a r an g
5
1 2 July 2 0 1 3
Ex h ibit 1 5 . N e w t oll r oa d a cce ss ( 1 )
N e a r ly
com ple t e d
ne w
t oll
r oa d
a cce ss a t 3 4 .7 k m
Ja k a r t a - Cik a m pe k
w it h …
Source: Com pany
Ex h ibit 1 6 . N e w t oll r oa d a cce ss ( 2 )
… dire ct e x it a cce ss
n e a r LPCK’s a re a
Source: Com pany
Ex hibit 1 7 . Ja pa ne se SM Es Ce nt e r
Re cu r r ing incom e s
fr om
5 .3 h a
Ja pa ne se
SM Es
Ce nt e r , w hich w a s
e st a blishe d in 1 Q1 3
Source: Com pany
PT Ba h an a Se cu r it ies – Equit y Re se a r ch – Lippo Cik a r an g
6
1 2 July 2 0 1 3
Ex hibit 1 8 . Lippo Cik a r a ng Cit y Ce nt e r m a st e r pla n
LCCC
m a st e r pla n
t a r ge t e d
for
com ple t ion by 2 0 2 0
Source: Com pany
Ex hibit 1 9 . Ea r nings r e visions
Old
( I D Rb)
EBI T
EBI T m argin ( % )
Net profit
Net m argin ( % )
New
% ch an ge s
2013F
2014F
2015F
2013F
2014F
2015F
2013F
721
45.6
623
41.1
818
45.0
745
41.0
-
547
45.3
520
43.1
673
44.4
641
42.3
-
( 24.1)
2014F
( 17.7)
2015F
-
( 16.4)
( 14.0)
-
Re vise d 2 0 1 3 - 1 4 F
bot t om line s by
16%
a nd 1 4 %
r e spe ct ive ly
Source: Bahana est im at es
Ex hibit 2 0 . N AV Ca lcu la t ion
Re side nt ia l
Undeveloped ( ha)
Developed ( ha)
La nd va lue ( I D Rb)
Net debt ( I DRb)
Cust om er deposit ( I DRb)
Tot a l va lue ( I D Rb)
No of shares ( b)
NAV/ share ( I DRb)
Discount t o NAV
Adj ust e d N AV ( I D R/ sh a r e )
43
155
7 ,2 3 7
I ndust r ia l
257
127
4 ,6 0 4
Tot a l
300
282
1 1 ,8 3 6
783
( 1,911)
1 0 ,7 0 7
0.7
15,384
40%
9 ,3 0 0
Ba se d on 4 0 %
discou nt t o ou r
N AV, w e a r r ive a t
ou r t a r ge t price
of I D R9 ,3 0 0 / sh
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
PT Ba h an a Se cu r it ies – Equit y Re se a r ch – Lippo Cik a r an g
7
1 2 July 2 0 1 3
Ex h ibit 2 1 . Pe e r com pa r ison , 2 0 1 3 F
NAV/ share ( I DR)
Target price ( I DR)
Discount TP ( % )
Current price ( I DR)
Disc t o NAV ( % )
Upside ( % )
BEST
1,494
1,190
20
660
55.8
8 0 .3
KI JA
1,059
445
58
315
70.3
4 1 .3
SSI A
2,167
1,800
17
1,120
48.3
6 0 .7
LPCK
15,384
9,300
40
7,300
52.5
2 7 .4
Shares out st anding ( b)
Market cap ( I DRb)
3m avg daily t urnover ( I DRb)
Market cap ( USDm )
3m avg daily t urnover ( USDm )
9.6
6,367
22.9
642
2.5
20.1
6,340
32.9
639
3.4
4.7
5,270
38.7
670
4.0
0.7
5,081
40.4
512
4.4
868
2,700
851
582
5,001
1,405
967
910
914
874
804
3.2
96.8
2,833
1,277
978
1,084
783
642
48.7
51.3
4,635
1,641
1,224
1,315
1,153
928
14.2
85.8
1,207
644
547
554
580
520
0.1
99.9
18.0
82.0
M a r gin ( % )
Gross m argin ( % )
Operat ing m argin ( % )
EBI TDA m argin ( % )
Pre- t ax m argin ( % )
Net m argin ( % )
68.8
64.7
65.1
62.2
57.2
45.1
34.5
38.3
27.7
22.7
35.4
26.4
28.4
24.9
20.0
53.4
45.3
45.9
48.1
43.1
51.2
43.3
45.0
40.9
36.0
Gr ow t h ( % )
Revenue
Gross profit
Operat ing profit
EBI TDA
Pre- t ax profit
Net profit
EPS growt h
45.6
68.3
72.6
72.6
68.9
70.9
49.4
102.2
48.5
56.4
58.9
71.1
68.8
68.4
30.0
26.6
33.4
30.2
31.3
31.3
31.3
19.2
23.8
25.3
25.5
26.8
27.7
27.7
52.6
43.7
49.0
49.0
52.0
52.1
46.1
PE ( x)
PBV ( x)
PEG ( x)
Debt t o equit y ( % )
Net gearing ( % )
EBI T/ net int . exp. ( x)
BVPS ( I DR/ share)
EPS ( I DR/ share)
DPS ( I DR/ share)
Dividend yield ( % )
ROAA ( % )
ROAE ( % )
7.9
2.3
0.2
21.3
8.0
28.6
281
83
17
2.5
28.3
37.8
9.8
1.4
0.1
44.4
33.7
4.3
228
32
11
3.5
8.5
15.0
5.7
2.2
0.2
82.3
9.0
16.3
519
197
18
1.6
18.0
45.9
9.8
2.9
0.4
nc
na
2,512
747
16.0
34.9
8.3
2.2
0.2
36.9
Land bank ( Ha) – gross
Revenue ( I DRb)
Gross profit ( I DRb)
Operat ing profit ( I DRb)
EBI TDA ( I DRb)
Pre- t ax profit ( I DRb)
Net profit ( I DRb)
% recurring t o t ot al revenue
% developm ent t o t ot al revenue
Se ct or
57.4
5 3 .4
23,058
2,462
Post ing
a bove
it s
a ve r a ge
m a rgin
pe e r s’
2.0
17.8
32.8
Source: Com pany,Bloom berg, Bahana est im at es
PT Ba h an a Se cu r it ies – Equit y Re se a r ch – Lippo Cik a r an g
8
Re se a rch: + 6 2 2 1 2 5 0 5 0 8 1
H a rry Su
harry.su@bahana.co.id
Senior Associat e Direct or
Head of Equit y Capit al Market & Research
St rat egy, Telcos, Consum er, Aviat ion
ext 3600
direct : + 62 21 250 5735
Te guh H a r t a nt o
t eguh.hart ant o@bahana.co.id
Associat e Direct or
Deput y Head of Research
Banks, Cem ent
ext 3610
Le ona r do H e nr y Ga va za
leonardo@bahana.co.id
Senior Research Manager
Aut om ot ive, Plant at ions, Heavy Equipm ent
ext 3608
Arga Sa m u dro
arga@bahana.co.id
Econom ist
ext 3602
St ifa nus Sulist yo
st ifanus.sulist yo@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Sm all cap
ext 3611
Adit ya Ek a Pra k a sa
adit ya.prakasa@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Poult ry
ext 3603
Sa lm a n Fa j a r i Ala m sya h
salm an@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Propert y, I ndust rial esat es. t oll road
ext 3605
Je nn ife r Fr e de r ik a Ya pply
Jennifer@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Coal, Oil and Gas
ext 3606
Rick y
ricky@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Met al m ining
ext 3615
Giova nni Ar ist o
giovanni@bahana.co.id
Senior Research Associat e
ext 3604
Ze fa ny a An ge lin e H a lim
zefanya@bahana.co.id
Research Associat e
ext 3612
H a sa n
Hasan@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
I nfrast ruct ure
ext 3613
Cha ndra W idj a n a r k a
chandra.w idj anarka@bahana.co.id
Technical Analyst
ext 3609
N ico La ur e ns
nico@bahana.co.id
Research Associat e
ext 3614
D e a ling Room : + 6 2 2 1 2 5 0 5 5 0 8 ( D om e st ic I nst it u t iona l)
La ur e nsius Te ise r a n
laurensius@bahana.co.id
Research Associat e
ext 3601
+ 6 2 2 1 5 2 7 0 8 0 8 ( For e ign I nst it u t iona l)
M a de Ayu W ij a ya t i
m ade.ayu@bahana.co.id
Research Execut ive
ext 3607
+ 6 2 3 1 5 3 5 2 7 8 8 ( Sur a ba ya Br a nch )
H a se linda Rifm a n
haselinda@bahana.co.id
Equit y Sales
ext 2524
John M . D a sa a d
dasaad@bahana.co.id
Equit y Sales
ext 2549
Angk y Am a rylis
angky.am arylis@bahana.co.id
Sales Trader
ext 2525
Ashish Agr a w a l
ashish@bahana.co.id
Equit y Sales
ext 2553
Suw a r di W idj a j a
Suwardi@bahana.co.id
Equit y Sales
ext 2548
Jona t ha n Gr e gor ius M .T
Gregorius@bahana.co.id
Sales Trader
ext 2546
Yoha ne s Adhi H a n dok o
yohanes@bahana.co.id
Manager, Surabaya Branch
ext 7250
H e a d Office
Graha Niaga, 19t h Floor
Jl. Jend. Sudirm an Kav. 58
Jakart a 12190
I ndonesia
Tel. 62 21 250 5081
Fax. 62 21 522 6049
ht t p: / / www.bahana.co.id
Sur a ba ya Br a n ch
Wism a BI I , Ground Floor
Jl. Pem uda 60- 70
Surabaya 60271
I ndonesia
Tel. 62 31 535 2788
Fax. 62 31 546 1157
DI SCLAI MER
The inform at ion cont ained in t his report has been t aken from sources which w e deem reliable. Howev er, none of P.T. Bahana Securit ies and/ or it s affiliat ed com panies and/ or t heir r espect ive em ploy ees and/ or agent s
m akes any r epr esent at ion or w ar rant y ( express or im plied) or accept s any r esponsibilit y or liabilit y as t o, or in r elat ion t o, t he accuracy or com plet eness of t he infor m at ion and opinions cont ained in t his report or as
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report . I n consider ing any inv est m ent s you should m ak e y our ow n independent assessm ent and seek your ow n pr ofessional financial and legal adv ice.
IMPORTANT US REGULATORY DISCLOSURES ON SUBJECT COMPANIES
This m at erial was produced by Bahana Securit ies, solely for inform at ion purposes and for t he use of t he recipient . I t is
not t o be reproduced under any circum st ances and is not t o be copied or m ade available t o any person ot her t han t he
recipient . I t is dist ribut ed in t he Unit ed St at es of Am erica by Enclave Capit al LLC. and elsewhere in t he world by Bahana
or an aut horized affiliat e of Bahana ( such ent it ies and any ot her ent it y, direct ly or indirect ly, cont rolled by Bahana, t he
“ Affiliat es” ) . This docum ent does not const it ut e an offer of, or an invit at ion by or on behalf of Bahana or it s Affiliat es or
any ot her com pany t o any person, t o buy or sell any securit y. The inform at ion cont ained herein has been obt ained from
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Affiliat es accept s any liabilit y or responsibilit y what soever for t he accuracy or com plet eness of any such inform at ion. All
est im at es, expressions of opinion and ot her subj ect ive j udgm ent s cont ained herein are m ade as of t he dat e of t his
docum ent . Em erging securit ies m arket s m ay be subj ect t o risks significant ly higher t han m ore est ablished m arket s. I n
part icular, t he polit ical and econom ic environm ent , com pany pract ices and m arket prices and volum es m ay be subj ect
t o significant variat ions. The abilit y t o assess such risks m ay also be lim it ed due t o significant ly lower inform at ion
quant it y and qualit y. By accept ing t his docum ent , you agree t o be bound by all t he foregoing provisions.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Bahana or it s Affiliat es m ay or m ay not have been beneficial owners of t he securit ies m ent ioned in t his report .
Bahana or it s affiliat es m ay have or not m anaged or co- m anaged a public offering of t he securit ies m ent ioned in
t he report in t he past 12 m ont hs.
Bahana or it s affiliat es m ay have or not received com pensat ion for invest m ent banking services from t he issuer
of t hese securit ies in t he past 12 m ont hs and do not expect t o receive com pensat ion for invest m ent banking
services from t he issuer of t hese securit ies wit hin t he next t hree m ont hs.
However, one or m ore of Bahana or it s Affiliat es m ay, from t im e t o t im e, have a long or short posit ion in any of
t he securit ies m ent ioned herein and m ay buy or sell t hose securit ies or opt ions t hereon eit her on t heir own
account or on behalf of t heir client s.
As of t he publicat ion of t his report Bahana does not m ake a m arket in t he subj ect securit ies.
Bahana or it s Affiliat es m ay or m ay not , t o t he ext ent perm it t ed by law, act upon or use t he above m at erial or
t he conclusions st at ed above or t he research or analysis on which t hey are based before t he m at erial is
published t o recipient s and from t im e t o t im e provide invest m ent banking, invest m ent m anagem ent or ot her
services for or solicit t o seek t o obt ain invest m ent banking, or ot her securit ies business from , any ent it y
referred t o in t his report .
Enclave Capit al LLC. is dist ribut ing t his docum ent in t he Unit ed St at es of Am erica. Bahana Securit ies accept s
responsibilit y for it s cont ent s. Any US cust om er wishing t o effect t ransact ions in any securit ies referred t o herein or
opt ions t hereon should do so only by cont act ing a represent at ive of Enclave Capit al LLC.