Q4 2012 Inflation Review
QUARTERLY INFLATION REVIEW
September – December 2012
Issue No. 4
The year‑on‑year inflation rate at the end of December 2012 was 11.7% for Dili and 10.9% for Timor‑Leste. These rates are
in line with those recorded in the previous quarter and thus suggest a reduction in volatility compared to 2011 and the
beginning of 2012. Over 2012, Timor‑Leste’s average inflation rate was also 10.9%. This rate compares positively in terms
of moderation of inflation with the 2011 rate of 13.1%.
N.B. The Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) of 2011 enabled the General Directorate of Statistics (DGS) to complete the
update of the CPI. Notably, the revision concerned the composition of the CPI basket (‘re‑basketing’) and of the item weights (‘re‑weighting’)
to ensure the relevance and accuracy of the CPI. Moreover, from next year (2013) CPI data will be available on a monthly basis for both Dili
and Timor‑Leste. This review, however, will continue to be produced quarterly.
Inflation Trend
The year‑on‑year (y‑o‑y) inflation rate at the end of Q4
inflation throughout the year as a whole compared to
2012 was 10.9% in Timor‑Leste. As shown in Figure 1,
the y‑o‑y rate. The Q4‑to‑Q4 rate provides important
this marks a clear improvement compared to last
information as to what the inflation rate was at the end
year’s rate (15.4%) and a slight improvement
of 2012 compared to the end of 2011. However, this
compared to the rate registered at the end of Q3 (11%).
does not correspond to the annual inflation rate, as it
However, inflation remains at double digits and above
considers only one quarter over the year. Instead, the
the 2009 and 2010 rates. Also, the relatively lower rate
annual average can be used when considering the
of Q4 2012 compared to Q4 2011 may itself be the
inflation rate for the entire year. In 2012, this rate was
result of particularly high inflation in the last quarter
10.9% compared to 13.1% in 2011.
of 2011, which somewhat leans on the Q4 2012 rate. In
Concerning specific categories, the main y‑o‑y
fact, although being adversely affected by seasonal
reductions compared to Q3 were observed in the
variations, the quarterly inflation rate between Q3 and
housing category where house building costs have
Q4 2012 stood at 6.7%, just 0.2 percentage points less
increased at a slower pace after a surge in Q3, for
than the Q3 to Q4 2011 rate and thus the second
tobacco products and for clothing and footwear. These
highest quarterly increase on record.
reductions
Figure 1. Inflation in Timor‑Leste by Category (Year‑on‑year, %)
registered for health services and pharmaceuticals,
outweighed
the
relative
increases
)(#$$%
household furnishings and alcoholic beverages.
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In contrast, the y‑o‑y inflation rate for Dili has
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continued to moderately increase in the last quarter of
(#$$%
2012, reaching 11.7% in December. This was due
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mainly to food inflation (12.1%), clothing and footwear
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$#$$%
*+,!$-%
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4+5!)$%
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4+5!))%
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(16.3%) and transport (19.1%).
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September – December 2012
Issue No. 4
The year‑on‑year inflation rate at the end of December 2012 was 11.7% for Dili and 10.9% for Timor‑Leste. These rates are
in line with those recorded in the previous quarter and thus suggest a reduction in volatility compared to 2011 and the
beginning of 2012. Over 2012, Timor‑Leste’s average inflation rate was also 10.9%. This rate compares positively in terms
of moderation of inflation with the 2011 rate of 13.1%.
N.B. The Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) of 2011 enabled the General Directorate of Statistics (DGS) to complete the
update of the CPI. Notably, the revision concerned the composition of the CPI basket (‘re‑basketing’) and of the item weights (‘re‑weighting’)
to ensure the relevance and accuracy of the CPI. Moreover, from next year (2013) CPI data will be available on a monthly basis for both Dili
and Timor‑Leste. This review, however, will continue to be produced quarterly.
Inflation Trend
The year‑on‑year (y‑o‑y) inflation rate at the end of Q4
inflation throughout the year as a whole compared to
2012 was 10.9% in Timor‑Leste. As shown in Figure 1,
the y‑o‑y rate. The Q4‑to‑Q4 rate provides important
this marks a clear improvement compared to last
information as to what the inflation rate was at the end
year’s rate (15.4%) and a slight improvement
of 2012 compared to the end of 2011. However, this
compared to the rate registered at the end of Q3 (11%).
does not correspond to the annual inflation rate, as it
However, inflation remains at double digits and above
considers only one quarter over the year. Instead, the
the 2009 and 2010 rates. Also, the relatively lower rate
annual average can be used when considering the
of Q4 2012 compared to Q4 2011 may itself be the
inflation rate for the entire year. In 2012, this rate was
result of particularly high inflation in the last quarter
10.9% compared to 13.1% in 2011.
of 2011, which somewhat leans on the Q4 2012 rate. In
Concerning specific categories, the main y‑o‑y
fact, although being adversely affected by seasonal
reductions compared to Q3 were observed in the
variations, the quarterly inflation rate between Q3 and
housing category where house building costs have
Q4 2012 stood at 6.7%, just 0.2 percentage points less
increased at a slower pace after a surge in Q3, for
than the Q3 to Q4 2011 rate and thus the second
tobacco products and for clothing and footwear. These
highest quarterly increase on record.
reductions
Figure 1. Inflation in Timor‑Leste by Category (Year‑on‑year, %)
registered for health services and pharmaceuticals,
outweighed
the
relative
increases
)(#$$%
household furnishings and alcoholic beverages.
)'#$$%
)&#$$%
In contrast, the y‑o‑y inflation rate for Dili has
)"#$$%
!"#$
)$#$$%
continued to moderately increase in the last quarter of
(#$$%
2012, reaching 11.7% in December. This was due
'#$$%
&#$$%
mainly to food inflation (12.1%), clothing and footwear
"#$$%
$#$$%
*+,!$-%
./0!)$%
123!)$%
4+5!)$%
*+,!)$%
./0!))%
123!))%
4+5!))%
*+,!))%
./0!)"%
123!)"%
4+5!)"%
*+,!)"%
(16.3%) and transport (19.1%).
!"#$$%
%&&'$
0)&1+234$/3'$%&&156/7$
8&9:6+&)'$%9732:+234:;$