2014 12 10 Post Presidential National Survey English Presentation

  

Public Opinion in Indonesia

Post-Presidential Election Public Opinion Survey

October 2014 Key Finding

• • Indonesians generally have very positive views on the conduct of the presidential elections, with large majorities giving

  good marks for the organization of these elections and expressing satisfaction with the overall election process as well as specific aspects of the process.

• The majority of Indonesians also believe that the presidential elections were free and fair. There are, however, some

  concerns about manipulations of election results at some polling stations in the country which in turn have an effect on perceptions of integrity of the election process.

• • There is a great deal of satisfaction expressed by Indonesians on the performance of electoral institutions, including the

  KPU, during the presidential election process.
• Most Indonesians express a strong sentiment that elections of regional and local heads of government should place

  

directly with the Indonesian voters making this choice rather than members of legislative bodies. Supporters of both

President Jokowi and Prabowo hold these sentiments, as do supporters of their party coalitions in the DPR. The majority also agrees that even though direct elections are expensive, they should nonetheless be the only vehicle for choosing of regional and local heads. Furthermore, the majority of Indonesians do not believe that indirect elections would lead to a reduction of money politics or corruption in the country.

• Indonesians generally have more positive impressions of the direction of the country and the economic situation in the

  country than at any time since late 2013. However, the economic situation and corruption are still the two most prominent issues that Indonesians believe the country still needs to address. Detailed Methodology Sample size: • 2,000 respondents representing the voting-age population in Indonesia (17 years+).

  Margin of error: • ±2.1 % within a 95% confidence interval.

• All the provinces of Indonesia (34); observations were allocated proportionately at the national level

  Sample area coverage: with an over-sample of observations in Aceh, Maluku, Papua, and West Papua.

  Fieldwork dates: • October 25 – November 3, 2014

• IFES contracted with the Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) to conduct fieldwork and data processing for

  Survey firm: the survey.

• Data was weighted by age, region and gender to bring the realized sample in line with target population parameters in order to be nationally representative of the adult (17+) population of

  Weights: Indonesia. Views on 2014 Elections

Organization of Parliamentary and Presidential Elections

  82% 81% Very Well Organized Well Organized Badly Organized Very Badly Organized DK/NR 8%

  8% 8% 7% 3%

  2% 1% 1% Parliamentary

  Presidential Satisfaction with Overall Election Process for Presidential Election

  11% 9%

  13% 76% 66%

  82% 9% 22%

  3%

  1% 1% 3%

  2% 1% Indonesia Supporters of Prabowo Subianto Supporters of Joko Widodo Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied DK/NR Problems Experienced During Voting (by region)

  5% 21% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 94% 79% 91% 92% 93% 95% 95% 96% 96% 100%

  Indonesia Maluku / Papua Aceh Bali / NTT / NTB Sulawesi / Gorontalo East Java Central Java / Yogyakarta West Java / Banten / Jakarta Sumatra Kalimantan Yes No Opinions on Fairness of Elections (Trend) 3%

  7% 1% 2% 11%

  11% Completely Free and Fair 66% Somewhat Free and Fair 64% Not too Free and Fair Not at all Free and Fair DK/NR 19%

  16% November 2014 (n=2,000) June 2014 (n=2,009) Attitudes on Free and Fair Elections (by Presidential Candidate Choice)

  2% 1% 2% 6%

  22% Completely Free and Fair 71%

Somewhat Free and Fair 57% Not too Free and Fair Not at all Free and Fair DK/NR 21%

  16% Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Attitudes on Specific Aspects of Election

  11% 12% 17%

  1%

  23%

  1%

  4% 6% 6% 10% 42% 69% 68%

  46% 32% 18% 15% 13% 4% 3%

  

Eligible voters had an equal opportunity to Casting, vote counting, and announcing Manipulating of election results occurred at There was massive manipulation of participate in the election results were done accurately at the TPS some polling stations election results during the 2014 level presidential election Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR Attitudes on Manipulation of Election Results (by Presidential Candidate Choice)

  3% 4% 28% 40% 46% 37% 6% 6% 17% 13%

  Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto "Manipulating of election results occured at some polling stations"

  2%

  4% 14% 27% 50% 41% 12% 10% 23% 18%

  Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto "There was massive manipulation of election results during the 2014 presidential election" Concerns of Violence on Election Day (by region)

  8% 11% 12% 8% 7% 5%

  3%

  9% 5%

  2%

  29% 36% 26% 29% 30% 31% 31% 19% 21% 15% 32% 23% 32% 35% 32% 40% 49% 41% 43% 14% 24% 22% 24% 26% 23% 19% 13% 26% 24% 42% 7% 8% 6%

  2%

  9% 5% 4% 5% 7% 28%

  Indonesia West Java / Bantan / Jakarta Maluku / Papua Central Java / Yogyakarta East Java Sumatra Kalimantan Aceh Sulawesi / Gorontolo Bali / NTT / NTB Very Concerned Somewhat Concerned Not Too Concerned Not At All Concerned DK/NR Institutions Trusted to Ease Concerns about Election Violence

  65% 68% 69% 70% 71% 73% 73% 85% 90% 91% 15% 18% 14% 14% 13% 16% 15% 8% 5% 4% 21% 14% 17% 16% 16% 12% 14% 7% 4% 5%

  Hatta Rajasa Prabowo Subianto Media Jusuf Kalla Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono Constitutional Court Joko Widodo Community Leaders Military Police Very/Somewhat Important DK/NR Somewhat/Very Unimportant

  

Attitudes Towards the KPU and other Electoral

Institutions

Satisfaction with Performance of KPU

  8% 7%

7%

6%

  4% 71% 70%

67%

60%

  40% 13% 13%

13%

13%

  14% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 7% 10%

12%

20%

  40% Informing and educating the public about the election process in Indonesia Ensuring the election results are accurate and reflect how people voted

Compiling and establishing the

voter's list that is used on Election

  

Day Maintaining independence from political pressures in the administration of elections Using the internet and social media like Facebook and Twitter to reach out to voters in Indonesia Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied DK/NR Views on Performance of Electoral Institutions

  Performance of the civilian security officers (HANSIP) in supporting the voting process

  93% 5%

  at TPS 2% Impartiality in the counting, tabulation, and announcement of results at the TPS level

  89% 5% 6%

  Performance of the police and security officials in providing security for the elections

  90% 5% 6%

  Impartiality of the polling station staff

  92% 5%

  3% Adequacy of the facilities and equipment at the polling station

  90% 6% 4%

  Competency of the polling station commissioners

  90% 6% 4%

  Information on voting procedures and how to mark the ballots

  90% 6% 4%

  Information on where and when to vote

  93% 4%

  3% Voter registration process

  89% 7% 4%

  Very/Somewhat Satisfied Very/Somewhat Dissatisfied DK/NR Accessibility of Pre-Election Voter Education Messages

  75% 67% 24% 27%

  2%

  6%

  November 2014 (n=2,000) June 2014 (n=2,009) Yes No DK/NR Adequacy of Pre-Election Voter Education Messages

  1%

  6% 7% 37%

  39% 57% 53%

  November 2014 (n=1,497) June 2014 (n=1,343) DK/NR Not enough information, and you needed much more information about voting procedures Satisfactory, but you still needed some more information about voting procedures Abundant, and helped you fully understand voting procedures Attitudes on Neutrality of Electoral and Political Institutions

  64% 65% 66% 67% 67% 67% 68% 69% 69% 70% 74% 75% 76% 77% 77% 29% 27% 25% 18% 23% 18% 18% 16% 21% 20% 18% 16% 14% 16% 13%

  7% 8% 9% 15% 10% 15% 14% 15% 10% 10% 8% 10% 10% 7% 10%

  Honorary Council of EMBs Supreme Court Constitutional Court Civil Servants Election Oversight Committee (Provincial) Provincial KPU District KPU National KPU National Bawaslu Election Oversight Committee (District) Field Election Oversight National Police Village Election Committee National Army Poll Station Worker

Neutral DK/NR Not Neutral Views on Electoral Issues

Preferred Means to Elect Regional/Local Heads (by Presidential and Party Choice)

  6% 4% 10%

  5% 8% 84% 89% 78%

  90% 81% 7% 4% 10%

  3% 8% 3% 3% 2%

  2% 3%

  Indonesia (n=2,000) Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Great Indonesia Coalition Red & White Coalition Voting through DPRD Direct Election Either System DK/NR

Views on Expense of Elections

  5% 4% 6%

  5% 6% 40% 36% 46%

  40% 41% 30% 33% 25%

  33% 31% 6% 7% 6%

  7% 6% 19% 20% 17%

  15% 17%

  Indonesia (n=2,000) Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Great Indonesia Coalition Red & White Coalition

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR Views on Expense of Elections versus People Making Choice of Leader

  11% 12% 12% 14%

  15% 10% 9% 8% 10%

  14% 66% 59% 67%

  71% 71% 15% 13% 9%

  7% 7%

  Indonesia (n=2,000) Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Great Indonesia Red & White Coalition Coalition DK/NR It doesn't matter to people like me whether leaders in this area are chosen by voters or by local parliaments. No matter the cost, it is important that voters get to choose their leaders and not have others do it for them. Voters in this areas should choose their leaders through elections. Elections are too expensive. It would be better for local parliaments to choose governor, district head, and mayor for this area to avoid the cost of holding an election. Views on Impact of Indirect

Elections on Money Politics

  4% 3% 5%

  4% 5% 25% 25% 27%

  25% 28% 39% 39% 39%

  41% 39% 13% 13% 13%

  15% 12% 19% 20% 16%

  16% 17%

  Indonesia (n=2,000) Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Great Indonesia Coalition Red & White Coalition Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR Rethinking Election Choices if Aware of Indirect Elections of

Provincial Head

  37% 37% 40%

  42% 42% 17% 18% 18%

  20% 19% 8% 8% 8%

  7% 8% 38% 37% 34%

  30% 31%

  Indonesia (n=2,000) Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto Great Indonesia Coalition Red & White Coalition This would not have affected my decision, my choice would stay the same I might have voted for a different candidate or party I would have chosen a diffent candidate or party DK/NA

  Views on Current Situation in Indonesia

Direction in which Indonesia is Headed

  67% 68%

  59% 15% 22%

  29% 18% 10%

  13% November 2014 (n=2,000) June 2014 (n=2,009) December 2013 (n=1,890) Right Direction Wrong Direction DK/NR Economic Situation in Indonesia (Trend) 1%

  1% 2% 51%

  44% 40% 39%

  44% 48% 4%

  5% 5% 5%

  5% 5% November 2014 (n=2,000) June 2014 (n=2,009) December 2013 (n=1,890)

  

Very Good Somewhat Good Somewhat Bad Very Bad DK/NR

  38% 21% 12% 8% 5% 33% 28% 13% 7% 4% 29% 31% 12% 6% 6% Price of basic needs Corruption Jobs/Work Education Law Uncertainty November 2014 (n=2,000) June 2014 (n=2,009) December 2013 (n=1,890) Greatest Issues facing Indonesia (Trend) Views on Corruption in Indonesia Very Prevalent; 33% Somewhat Prevalent; 47% Not Too Prevalent; 9% Not Prevalent At All; 1% DK/NR; 11%

  "In your opinion, how prevalent is corruption in Indonesia?" (n=2,000) Very Satisfied; 5% Somewhat Satisfied; 44% Somewhat Dissatisfied; 39% Very Dissatisfied; 4% DK/NR; 8%

  "Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the nation government's efforts to fight official corruption?" (n=2,000) Prevalence of Corruption People's Representative Council 16%

  53% 9% 22% 0% Political Parties 12% 51% 11% 25% 1% Government Officials / Civil Servants 9% 52% 16% 22% 1% Police 11% 48% 19% 21% 1% Courts 9% 49% 16% 25% 1% Election Oversight Body 3% 30% 32% 33% 2% National Election Commission

  

28% 33% 35% 2% 2% Non-Governmental Organizations 24% 35% 3% 37% 2% Military 23% 43% 3% 29% 2% Universities 21% 40% 4% 34% 2% Media 20% 38% 3% 37% 2% Religious Institutions 19% 43% 6% 32% 1% Pervasive Corruption A Fair Amount of Corruption Not Much Corruption No Corruption At All DK/NR Confidence in Institutions and Leaders

  27% 23% 7% 6% 6% 7% 4% 55% 56% 47% 47% 47% 45% 37% 13% 15% 29% 29% 29% 33% 36%

  1% 1% 3% 3% 3%

  4% 6% 4% 5% 14% 15% 15% 12% 16%

  President Joko Widodo Vice President Jusuf Kalla DPR Kab/Kota DPD DPR Province DPR RI Political Parties

Great Deal Fair Amount Not Much None at All DK/NR

  

Public Opinion in Indonesia

Post-Presidential Election Public Opinion Survey

October 2014