Module_5_Developing Resilience Options

  

MODULE 5: DEVELOPING

RESILIENCE OPTIONS TITLE OF ENTIRE TRAINING GOES HERE

  May 27, 2015

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Last Time We Discussed Threats , Exposure , Sensitivity , Impacts

• Adaptive (or Coping) Capacity , and Vulnerability Strategic scoping considerations for doing

• Vulnerability and Resilience Assessments

  (VRA)

  Direct and Indirect Impacts of climate

• change

  3 In This Module We Will

Discuss Diferent types of Climate Change

• Adaptation and Resilience (CCAR)

  options Evaluative criteria for evaluating

• CCAR options

  

Procedures for applying evaluative

• criteria

  Where are we in the process? _{Identifying Climate Threats Identifying Climate Threats} Scoping ^Scoping

  Assessing _{Climate Vulnerabilities} ^Assessing _{Climate Vulnerabilities} Developoing _{Resilience- Building Options} ^Developoing _{Resilience- Building Options Evaluating Options Evaluating Options} ^{Develop Monitoirng and Evaluation System Develop Monitoirng and Evaluation System Maintreaming Climate Resilience Maintreaming Climate Resilience}

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The CCAR-DRR Process

  Identify potential impacts of Climate Change

• What are the greatest threats? What are the most
• vulnerable groups, places, assets or ‘things’ (urban systems) at risk?

  Identify potential options for high-priority

• vulnerabilities

  Establish criteria for ranking options

• Apply criteria to options to select and sequence
>actions

  

Adapting to Climate

Change in Hoi An,

Vietnam

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  8 Key considerations in formulating CCAR options

  Cross-sector

• communication and coordination Applying the ICEM
• “Systems Egg” Analytic Framework Context- and threat-
• specifc considerations?

Process questions to address

  Who participates, and who decides who

• participates? What are the Ground Rules on participating,
• voting, etc.? What forms does participation take?
• Consultations vs. Decision-making?
>Timing of Inputs?

  What were your Priority Vulnerabilities from the

  Review List of Priority

Vulnerabilities from VRA

  VRA?

• Should you consider non-climate related risks, such as land-use changes, population growth, or other disaster risks?

  A Powerful Analytic Tool:

The ICEM “Systems Egg”

  Natural System – foundational

• Natural Systems

  Human System – loss of life,

• injury, and disease outbreaks

  Human Systems Economic System – loss of

  Economic

• Systems

  production & employment Social Systems

  Social (support) System – social

• Built

  ‘self-help’ networks Environment

• Inputs &

  Built Environment – buildings,

  roads, and other infrastructure Outputs

  Critical Inputs & Outputs – food,

• Institutional water, waste, energy, transport, etc.

   Systems Institutional System – most

• important & fundamental asset

  12 Examples of Natural

System Assets

  Mangrove forests protecting coastal cities from

• storm surges Greenways and tree-lined street in cities providing
• shade and reducing urban ‘heat island efect’ Natural waterways in towns and cities to handle
• run-of Upland forests and natural areas in watersheds:
• infltration, water storage, energy generation, recreation, natural habitat Vegetation on steep hillsides and slopes:
• preventing mudslides & landslides, soil erosion and

  Examples of Social

Safety-Net System

  Promote social safety-net and ‘self-help’ networks

• Organize ‘community social assets’ around
• churches, schools, sports clubs, neighborhoods, etc. Institute Advance Warning Systems & emergency
• protocols Pre-position & stockpile Medical Supplies, Assets,
• and Personnel to provide immediate medical attention

  Critical Urban System

  In considering any CCAR option, it is crucial to think about the impacts on, and the services and functions provided by, critical urban system inputs & outputs, such as:

• Energy system (especially electricity)
• Food Distribution & Back-up Storage
• Transportation (all modes and multi-modal combos)
• Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment
• Solid Waste Collection & Disposal
• Communications system (especially cell phone

  responders)

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Inputs & Outputs

  15 Institutional Capacity &

Resilience

  The KEY ‘system’ and biggest asset AND challenge is always Institutional. The “core” of the ‘Systems Egg” -- makes it

• possible to increase resilience of ALL other elements of the “Egg.” Adaptive Capacity is key factor in reducing
• vulnerability & increasing resilience (more than Exposure or Sensitivity) Institutional Capacity is the key to improving
• Adaptive Capacity and reducing vulnerabilities!

  Key Elements of the

Resilience Framework Assess how critical ecosystems services and

• functions might respond to continued human pressures in the face of climate change

  Assess the capacities of key organizations and

• groups to adapt Use analysis of system threats and weaknesses,
• agent capacity defcits, and institutional gaps or

  weaknesses as a basis for designing resilience-

  building strategies

Resilience: Quick Quiz Are you personally resilient?

• Turn to the person next to you and explain what makes you resilient.
• If you don’t think you’re resilient explain why you’re not.
• Take turns.

  Now think about your community.

• How resilient is it?
• What are the attributes that make it resilient?
• If you think your community is not resilient, explain why.

  18 Approaches for enhancing Resilience Responding to surprise and unexpected

• outcomes

  Adopt participation , transparency , and

• accountability from the beginning

  Think about time realistically

• Identify and prioritize key needs
>Identify better ways to meet these needs

Urban Resilience Elements

  Systems—infrastructure systems, food

• distribution networks, social services, health systems, supply chains, etc. Capacities of Urban Agents—knowledge, skills,
• assets of individuals, households, private- and public-sector organizations, other decision- making “actors” Institutions—social rules or conventions that
• structure human behavior such as institutions of property or group decision-making

Urban Systems

  Core or critical systems that are essential to

• human well-being include food production and distribution, water, energy, transport, communication, shelter and ecological systems Core systems such as energy, transport and
• communication are interdependent. Failure of one core system can lead to cascading failures When systems are fragile, and when system
• functioning is disrupted, people are put at risk.

Urban Systems Vulnerability

  Systems, services, functions and infrastructure may be vulnerable because of: Location in hazard-prone areas

• Poor construction materials or techniques
• Construction/location relative to other
• infrastructure [road construction afects drainage patterns] Ecosystem degradation
• Damage to one system causes damage to
• another [e.g., dike failure results in food damage to roads, homes and businesses]

Other System Vulnerabilities

  How do laws, rules, and mandates afect system

• vulnerabilities? What about procurement, construction and
• maintenance practices? How does treatment of urban waste or other
• pollutants afect ecosystem services such as mangrove or reef health?

  

Clogged Drainage

System

  

Urban fooding

disrupts transport…

  

Flooding disrupts energy

transmission…

  

Causing Power

Outages

Understanding “ripple” &

  27 indirect impacts Impacts in one area or sector can lead to ‘cascading’ or ‘ripple’ efects in others…

  What Makes Urban Systems

Resilient?

  

Robustness : ability to withstand impacts of hazards

• without signifcant damages or lack of function .

  Flexibility and diversity : Essential tasks can be

• performed under a wide range of conditions [e.g.,

  key facilities such as power generators are spatially

  distributed to insure a single event won’t shut down the whole system]

  Redundancy and modularity : Spare capacity for

• emergency situations [e.g., emergency supplies

  stored at multiple sites, back-up electric generators

  for hospitals and other critical facilities]

  What Makes Urban Systems

Resilient? (Cont) Safe failure : Ability to absorb sudden shocks

• without causing total system failure [e.g., ability to guide food waters away from key facilities via temporary dikes and berms]

  Responsiveness : Systems designed to learn and

• adjust to changing conditions.

Making Systems Robust

  Enforce building codes to require strengthened

• buildings in areas exposed to hazards Elevate buildings above food inundation levels
• Build foatable/movable structures
• Retroft buildings to withstand climate hazards
• Disaster-proof electrical and mechanical
• equipment

  Creating Robustness by

Increasing Setbacks

  60 X erosion rate or 30 X erosion rate + 105’ whichever is less (120’ minimum)

  First line of stable natural vegetation

  Ocean

  

Robustness: Shoreline Setback

  

Example of Infrastructure Response: Sea

Walls (typical “predict & protect” approach)

  

Enhancing Natural System

Responses: Dune stabilization eforts

  

Example of Natural System Response:

Dune Stabilization (Resilient approach)

  

Natural System Coastal Resilience:

Example of mangrove forests

  

Another example of “Predict and

Protect” Approach: Dykes and Levees

  

However, what happens when

the Levee breaks?

  

Here is an example of a Sea Wall

augmenting a natural protective

system

  

Robustness via Building

Codes

  

System Flexibility & Diversity :

Sewage Treatment

  

Transportation Flexibility

  

Flexible Car

Lanes

  

Flexible Housing: Floating

Structures

System

  

Redundancy/Modularity :

Water Delivery

  

System

Redundancy/Modularity :

  

Emergency Building

Generator

  “ Safe Failure ” to Enhance Resilience Able to absorb sudden shocks or cumulative stress to avoid _{Jelson25 2007} catastrophic

  

Safe Failure : Tokyo Storm Water

Storage

  

Safe Failure: Green

Flood Control

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Natural Systems Response: Biopores

  Drainage and waste

• management; water conservation… Low regrets….

  

Human System Response:

Preventing Water-Borne Illness

  52 Infrastructure

Response: Porous Roads

  Drainage; land use planning;

• infrastructure… Low regrets…

  

More hot days & heat waves

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Resilience against fooding…

  Consider climate risk

management options…

  

Hilo, Hawaii: Tsunami Damage, 1960

  

Retreat: Hilo Bayshore Park Today

  

Retreat: Park in Hilo Tsunami Zone…

  

Learning from Climate

Trends

Urban Agents

• Individuals, households
• Public agencies
• Large and small businesses
• Community organizations
• Religious organizations
• Advocacy organizations
• Political parties
• Elected ofcials

Key Capacities of Urban Agents

  

Responsiveness : Ability to identify, anticipate,

• plan and prepare for a threat or disruptive event or system failure

  Resourcefulness : Ability to mobilize people,

• funds, ideas, energy to respond to a threat [or opportunity]

  

Capacity to Learn : Ability to assess experience,

• extract lessons and apply them efectively

  

Coordination : Ability to align eforts of multiple

• agencies to address inter-related urban issues such as land use and water management

  

Community-Level

Capacity Building

Urban Institutions

  

Rules, laws, customs, social norms and conventions

• Councils, legislative bodies, coordinating
• organizations Guide, enable and constrain people’s behavior.

• Defne the range of perceived possible responses or

• actions in a given situation Afect the ability of individuals, households, agencies
• and others to respond to shocks and crises.

  Institutions Afecting

Resilience [1]

  

Decision-making processes: Are decision-making

• processes inclusive? Who participates? Are decision-makers accountable? Are decision-making processes transparent? Are they based on the

  latest information? Do they provide opportunities

  for deliberation? Information fow: To what extent do decision-
• makers at all levels have access to technically

  credible information? What processes are used to

  insure credible information?

  Institutions Afecting

Resilience [2] Rights and entitlements: What land-tenure rights do

• risk-prone communities have? What expectations do communities have about opportunities to participate in decisions that afect them?

  Accessible knowledge and technical assistance: To

• what extent are there institutions to generate,

  transfer and apply new knowledge? Do those who

  generate new knowledge have access to decision- makers?

  

Coordinating

Organizations

  Resilience and technical and political uncertainty

What do you do in a situation of political and/ or technical uncertainty?

• Low (no) regrets adaptations
• Targets of Opportunity
• Flexible, reversible strategies
• Opportunities for joint gains

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  Key entry points for developing resilience

• Climate sensitive land use planning
• Institutional coordination mechanisms and capacity support
• Drainage, food, and solid waste management
• Water demand and conservation systems
• Emergency management and early warning systems
• Responsive health systems
• Resilient housing and transport systems
• Strengthening ecosystem services
• Diversifcation and protection of climate-afected livelihoods

  70 “Maladaptation”

  Increasing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions

• Disproportionately burdening the most
• vulnerable Actions with high opportunity costs (if we are
• wrong) Reducing incentives to adapt
>Creating path dependency

  Example of “Path

Dependency” along Coastline

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Resources…

  Building Urban Resilience:

• Principles, Tools, and Practice.

  World Bank 2013.

  Climate Resilience and Social

• Change: Operational Toolkit.

  World Bank 2011.

  ISET-International Climate

• Resilience Framework 2013…

  How to Make Cities More

• Resilient. UNISDR 2012. Designing Climate Change
• Adaptation Initiatives. UNDP 2010.

  Tyler, Stephen, and Marcus

• Moench. A Framework for Urban Climate Resilience. 2012.

  

See you next time!!!

  74 Examples of Human

System Assets

  Steps taken to prevent / minimize Loss of Life &

• Injuries Prevent outbreaks of disease due to unsanitary
• conditions Train people to staf Advance Warning Systems
• ^st

  Train 1 Responders and Medical Personnel to

• provide immediate medical attention Planned provision of food, water & shelter to
• those in need

  Examples of Economic

System Assets

  Use of economic sanctions or fees to discourage

• risky behaviors, activities, or investments Create emergency reserve funds &risk-spreading
• insurance Climate-proof factories, infrastructure & built
• environment Protect housing stock with revolving loan
>programs to climate-proof it, provide subsidized inputs, etc. Reduce lost employment & income/wages

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Built Environment & Infrastructure

  Climate-proof valuable public infrastructure and

• built environment, especially high-value buildings Use public buildings as shelters & response
• centers Protect critical urban systems, services and
• functions
_st Establish emergency plans and evacuation
• routes, 1 response protocols, and chain-of- command authorities

Institutional Capacity Assets

  Community outreach and awareness-building

• Gaining Civil Society and Private Sector support
• Land-use planning and zoning restrictions
• Improving coordination within local
• agencies/departments Improving vertical coordination with other levels
• of Gov’t Laws, rules, regulations, standards, etc.
• Plans, programs, strategies, etc.
• Building codes and standards
• Requirements for new developments &
>upgrading requirements for existing built assets Financial incentives and sanctions or

  

Now, let’s apply this Tool to a

specifc Climate Threat – Sea

Level Rise

  Can you think of some CCAR Options in terms of:

  Sea Level Rise in

Coastal/Riverine Areas

• Natural System Assets or Responses?
• Human Assets or Responses?
• Economic Assets or Responses?
• Social System Assets or Responses?
• Infrastructure & Built Environment Assets?
• Critical Inputs & Outputs Assets or Responses?

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Elements of Resilience

• Safe Fail
• Modularity
• Redundancy
• Flexibility and Diversity
• Responsiveness and learning

  Overview of Resilience Approach [2]

  Identify possible interventions to reduce

• specifc vulnerabilities; Describe each intervention in detail. Specify
• the vulnerabilities of systems, agents, and institutions the intervention addresses

  2 nd

   Example of a Priority Climate Risk: Increased Flooding

  Applying the “Systems Egg,” can you think of Some CCAR Responses to Increased Flooding?

• Natural System Responses?
• Human Responses?
• Economic Responses?
• Social System Responses?
• Infrastructure & Built Environment Responses?
• Critical Inputs & Responses?
• Institutional Responses?

  

Protection for Resilience

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