BAHANA TBLA Rated SEPT 2016
Cor por a t e fla sh
Asiamoney’s
2013
Best Domestic
Equity House
1 Se pt e m be r 2 0 1 6
Tu na s Ba r u La m pu ng
BUY
Sect or: Plant at ions ( Neut ral)
( unchanged)
Rat ing m om ent um * :
Gr e gor iu s Ga r y
PX: I DR760–TP: I DR1,180 ( From I DR850)
TP/ consensus: 139% ; TP m om ent um * :
JCI : 5,335
E- m ail: gregorius@bahana.co.id
Phone: + 6221 250 5081 ext . 3604
Suga r r ush
Fully int e gr a t e d bu sine ss by 2 0 1 7 F t o a llow suga r r e ve nue t o t r iple :
On t he back of a m aj or sugar expansion, TBLA is set t o t riple it s 1H16 sugarrelat ed revenue of I DR1t n t o nearly I DR3t n by end- 2017 by set t ing- up a
sugar m ill. The com pany’s foray int o t he sugar business in Lam pung st art ed
back in 2012 via conversion of plant at ion from exist ing palm t o sugarcane
due t o great er soil suit abilit y. Addit ionally, Lam pung is st rat egically locat ed
bet ween Java and Sum at ra, t he biggest sugar m arket s in I ndonesia. As a
m aj or init iat ive t o int egrat e it s sugar business, TBLA st art ed developing it s
own sugar m ill wit h a t ot al capacit y of 120k t ons per annum , and is expect ed
t o be operat ional by end- 2016. Once com plet e, TBLA’s sugar m ill would allow
t he processing of it s own harvest ed sugarcane int o whit e sugar, creat ing
higher value add. I n 2017F, we expect whit e sugar product ion of 99.6k t ons
from a t ot al sugarcane plant ed area of 14.4k ha ( exhibit 8) wit h an average
yield of 100t ons/ ha.
CPO pr ice r e cove r y t o dr ive 2 0 1 7 F e a r nings: Apart from t he sugar
business, we expect posit ive perform ance from TBLA’s CPO segm ent ,
part icularly on our expect at ions of cont inued price upt rend. I n 2016F, we
expect CPO price of USD625/ m t , before increasing t o USD750/ m t in 2017F,
as current recovery in CPO dem and from m aj or global cust om ers ( i.e. China
and I ndia) out paces t he slower global CPO product ion and invent ory level.
This should result in higher earnings for TBLA as w e expect it s CPO ASP t o
reach I DR8,923/ kg coupled wit h higher product ion of 261k t ons.
Sha r e h olde r bon us fr om r e fine r y busine ss: On anot her posit ive not e,
TBLA has obt ained a 262k t ons sugar im port quot a from t he governm ent t his
year t o produce refined sugar for t he local m arket . We expect t his t o be
fruit ful for TBLA, t ranslat ing int o I DR2.2t n in addit ional 2016F revenue wit h a
high gross m argin of 40.5% . Not e t hat hist orical dat a shows worsening sugar
deficit in t he past 5 years ( exhibit 6) , im plying lim it ed developm ent of
I ndonesia’s sugar indust r y wit h product ion badly out st ripped by rapidlygrowing dom est ic dem and. Therefore, we believe t hat t he governm ent will
cont inue t o allow sugar im port s and furt her raise im port quot a t o fulfil t he
exist ing sugar deficit in t he next few years. This is despit e t he governm ent ’s
plan t o m ake I ndonesia self- sufficient in sugar. Looking ahead, alt hough we
expect t he sugar refinery business t o provide cont inued addit ional earnings
t o shareholders, we have conservat ively priced t his business segm ent at only
1.0x PE, cont ribut ing only I DR40/ share t o our TP.
Ex hibit 1 . Com pa n y inform a t ion
Market cap ( I DRb/ USDm )
:
3M avg.daily t .o.( I DRb/ USDm )
:
Bloom berg code
:
Source: Bloom berg
Ex hibit 2 . Sha r eh olde r s in form at ion
Budi Delt a Sw akarya ( % )
:
Sungai Budi ( % )
:
Ot hers ( % )
:
Free float ( % )
:
27.80
26.49
1.47
45.62
Source: Bloom berg
Ex hibit 3 . Ke y fore ca st s an d va lu at ion s
2015 2016F 2017F
Ye a r t o 3 1 D e c
Revenue ( I DRbn)
5,331
6,609 8,181
EBI T ( I DRt n)
604
782 1,334
Net profit ( I DRbn)
197
500
891
Bahana/ cns. ( % )
na
na
EPS ( I DR)
37
94
167
EPS growt h ( % )
( 58)
154
78
EV/ EBI TDA ( x)
11.8
9.4
6.3
PER ( x)
20.6
8.1
4.6
FCFPS ( I DR)
( 0)
0
( 0)
FCF yield ( % )
( 0.0)
0.0
( 0.0)
BVPS ( I DR)
536
603
699
PBV ( x)
1.4
1.3
1.1
DPS ( I DR)
23
28
70
Yield ( % )
3.0
3.7
9.3
ROAA ( % )
2.4
5.1
8.0
ROAE ( % )
7.4
16.4
25.6
EBI T m argin ( % )
11.3
11.8
16.3
Net gearing ( % )
153.3
127.0 134.5
2018F
9,465
1,427
947
na
177
6
6.2
4.3
( 0)
( 0.0)
751
1.0
125
16.6
7.5
24.4
15.1
145.2
Source: Bloom berg, Bahana est im at es
Not e: Pricing as of close on 1 Sept em ber 2016
Ex hibit 4 . Rela t ive sh a re price pe r for m a n ce
(% )
(% )
60
60
53.4
50
50
40.4
40
40
32.9
30
30
18.6
20
17.5
20
9.1
10
10
0
0
yt d
1M
3M
6M
9M
12M
t bla I J relat iv e t o JCI
Source: Bloom berg, Bahana
Ex hibit 5 . Rela t ive pe rform an ce t o JCI , yt d
(% )
40
Ra t ing: BUY w it h highe r TP of I D R1 ,1 8 0 or 5 5 % upside pot e nt ia l
I n line wit h our 40% earnings upgrade for 2017F on t he st rong perform ance of
TBLA’s sugar m ill and CPO business, we have r aised our TP by 39% t o
I DR1,180 ( SOTP- based, exhibit 11) , from I DR850. As such, we expect t he
st ock t o sust ain it s m arket out perform ance ( exhibit 4) and reit erat e our BUY
recom m endat ion. Risks t o our call are I DR appreciat ion, lower- t han- expect ed
CPO prices, possible lower sugar im port quot a, pot ent ial cap on cooking oil
prices and furt her delay in sugar m ill proj ect com plet ion.
4,060.0/ 306.0
2,296.4/ 173.1
TBLA I J
(% )
40
37.5
33.9
32.9
30
30
20
20
10
10
5.1
1.3
0.6
0
0
( 5.3)
( 10)
BWPT
SI MP
TBLA
Sect or
LSI P
SGRO
ANJT
( 8.9)
AALI
( 10)
Source: Bloom berg, Bahana
Disclosure: Bahana Securit ies does and seeks t o do business wit h com panies covered in it s research report s. I nvest ors should consider t his report as only a single fact or in
m aking t heir invest m ent decision.
Please see t he im port ant disclaim er inform at ion on t he back of t his r eport
*Based on consensus’ recent changes ↑ (up), ↓ (down), ↔ (unchanged)
1 Se pt e m be r 2 0 1 6
Ex hibit 6 . I ndone sia suga r dom e st ic con su m pt ion & pr odu ct ion, 2 0 0 4 - 2 0 1 5
( k t ons)
6.0
5.5
5.6
5.7
I ndone sia ’s
su ga r
de ficit
cont in ue d t o w or se n in t he
pa st 5 ye a r s, …
5.3
4.8
4.7
5.0
4.5
4.3
4.3
4.1
4.0
4.0
3.3
2.8
3.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2005
2006
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.3
2010
2011
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.5
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.0
1.0
2004
2007
2008
2009
Dom est ic consum pt ion
Pr oduct ion
Source: Com pany
Ex hibit 7 . Su ga r pr ice , Apr il 2 0 0 9 – Au gu st 2 0 1 6
( I DR/ k g)
… lift ing dom e st ic suga r
pr ice s fa r a bove globa l suga r
pr ice s
10,000
9, 000
8, 000
7, 000
6, 000
5, 000
4, 000
3, 000
2, 000
1, 000
Apr - 09
Jun- 09
Aug- 09
Oct - 09
Dec- 09
Feb- 10
Apr - 10
Jun- 10
Aug- 10
Oct - 10
Dec- 10
Feb- 11
Apr - 11
Jun- 11
Aug- 11
Oct - 11
Dec- 11
Feb- 12
Apr - 12
Jun- 12
Aug- 12
Oct - 12
Dec- 12
Feb- 13
Apr - 13
Jun- 13
Aug- 13
Oct - 13
Dec- 13
Feb- 14
Apr - 14
Jun- 14
Aug- 14
Oct - 14
Dec- 14
Feb- 15
Apr - 15
Jun- 15
Aug- 15
Oct - 15
Dec- 15
Feb- 16
Apr - 16
Jun- 16
Aug- 16
-
I ndonesia sugar floor price
Global sugar pr ice
Source: Com pany, Bloom berg, Bahana
Ex hibit 8 . Su ga r ca ne pla nt a t ion pla nt e d a r e a & a ve r a ge a ge , 2 0 1 2 - 2 0 1 8 F
( years)
( ha)
20,000
4.0
17,993
18,000
3.6
16,000
3.2
14,424
14,000
2.8
11,326
12,000
2.4
10,000
2.0
7,326
8, 000
1.6
6, 000
3,913
1.2
4, 000
2, 000
1,305
1,133
2012
2013
0.8
-
0.4
2014
2015
Tot al plant ed area
2016F
2017F
Average age ( RHS)
Source: Com pany , Bahana
Ba ha na Se cu rit ies – Equ it y Re se a r ch – TBLA I J Cor por a t e Fla sh
2018F
TBLA’s
t ot a l
suga r ca ne
pla nt e d a r e a t o r e a ch 1 7 .9 k
ha by 2 0 1 8 F
1 Se pt e m be r 2 0 1 6
Ex hibit 9 . Re ve nue cont r ibut ion pe r se gm e nt , 2 0 1 4 - 2 0 1 8 F
( I DRbn)
10,000
Suga r
m ill
a nd
suga r
r e fine r y
pr oduct s
should
t oge t he r cont r ibut e 3 7 % of
2 0 1 7 F r e ve nue
9, 000
-
8, 000
3,297
7, 000
6, 000
2,996
277
42
884
144
600
5, 000
2,200
4, 000
3, 000
6,168
5,412
4,587
2, 000
5,185
4,132
1, 000
2014
2015
Palm oil product s
2016F
2017F
Sugar product s
2018F
Ot hers
Source: Com pany, Bahana
Ex hibit 1 0 . Su ga r ca ne pla nt a t ion, m ill & r e fine ry loca t ion, 2 0 1 6
The 1 2 0 k t on s su ga r m ill is
st r a t e gica lly loca t e d w it hin
t he
com pa ny’s suga r ca ne
pla nt a t ion a r e a
Source: Com pany
Ex hibit 1 1 . TBLA’s sum - of- t he - pa r t s va lua t ion
M e t hod
Va lu e
D ivision
Palm and sugar m ill business
2017F PE of 9.0x
6,095
Sugar r efiner y business
2017F PE of 1.0x
214
Tot al value ( I DRbn)
6,309
Shar es out st anding ( m n)
5,342
Va lu e / Sha r e ( I D R)
Source: Bahana forecast s
Ba ha na Se cu rit ies – Equ it y Re se a r ch – TBLA I J Cor por a t e Fla sh
1 ,1 8 0
SOTP va lua t ion r e sult s in a
2 0 1 7 F TP of I D R1 ,1 8 0
1 Se pt e m be r 2 0 1 6
Ex hibit 1 2 . TBLA 2 Q1 6 r e sult s sum m a r y
( I D Rbn)
Sa le s
Gr oss pr ofit
Operat ing expenses
Ope r a t ing pr ofit
Net int erest incom e/ ( expenses)
FX gain ( loss)
Ot her incom e ( ex pense)
Pr e t a x pr ofit
Taxat ion
Minor it y I nt erest
N e t pr ofit
BS & Ra t io a na lysis
Gross m argin ( % )
Operat ing m ar gin ( % )
Pret ax m argin ( % )
Net m argin ( % )
I nvent ory Days
Receivable Days
Payable Days
Tot al cash
Tot al debt
Net gear ing ( % )
2 Q1 5
1 ,3 7 5 . 8
2 8 9 .1
( 113.1)
3 7 6 .0
( 55.4)
( 48.1)
( 189.1)
8 3 .4
( 26.8)
( 0.7)
5 5 .9
2 Q1 5
21.0
27.3
6.1
4.1
82
44
27
389
3,708
132.0
1 Q1 6
1 ,0 2 6 . 9
2 4 1 .6
( 130.3)
1 1 1 .3
( 56.9)
26.1
6.5
8 7 .1
( 21.9)
( 0.1)
6 5 .2
1 Q1 6
23.5
10.8
8.5
6.3
144
81
61
226
5,077
165.8
2 Q1 6
1 ,8 8 5 . 3
5 2 3 .7
( 132.7)
5 0 2 .3
( 70.0)
7.7
( 104.5)
3 3 5 .5
( 90.6)
( 0.3)
2 4 4 .6
2 Q1 6
27.8
26.6
17.8
13.0
76
40
50
326
5,198
153.7
q- q
(% )
8 3 .6
1 1 6 .8
1.8
3 5 1 .4
23.1
( 70.4)
na
2 8 5 .3
314.6
405.9
2 7 5 .4
y- y
(% )
3 7 .0
8 1 .1
17.3
3 3 .6
26.3
( 116.1)
( 44.7)
3 0 2 .4
238.1
( 64.4)
3 3 8 .0
2 Q1 6 /
2 Q1 6 F
118
274
284
1H16
2 ,9 1 2 . 2
765.3
( 263.0)
5 0 2 .3
( 126.8)
33.8
13.3
4 2 2 .6
( 112.4)
( 0.3)
3 0 9 .8
1H16
26.3
17.2
14.5
10.6
96
52
64
326
5,198
153.7
y- y
(% )
7 .0
2 7 .5
17.4
3 3 .6
24.8
( 135.8)
( 25.5)
1 1 3 .7
125.5
( 72.3)
1 1 1 .1
2015A
22.0
11.3
4.9
3.7
99
54
29
296
4,690
153.8
1H16/
2016F
51
1H16/
Cons
na
74
na
123
2 0 1 6 F*
22.5
11.9
6.1
4.4
78
46.31
15
228
4,028
123.8
na
2 0 1 7 F*
23.2
12.5
7.8
5.6
72
42.46
14
425
4,163
111.0
Source: Com pany, Bloom berg * using old forecast num bers
Ex hibit 1 3 . Ea r nings r e visions
Old
( I D Rbn )
2016F
2017F
New
2018F
2016F
2017F
Ch a nge ( % )
2018F
2016F
2017F
2018F
Re v e n u e
6 ,0 2 2
6 ,7 1 8
7 ,1 7 6
6 ,6 0 9
8 ,1 8 1
9 ,4 6 5
9.8
21.8
31.9
Gr oss pr ofit
1 ,3 5 7
1 ,8 7 6
2 ,1 9 3
1 ,4 5 2
2 ,1 8 7
2 ,4 1 1
7.0
16.6
9.9
9.1
14.8
3.5
14.5
40.1
6.3
14.2
40.2
6.1
Gross profit m argin ( % )
22.5
27.9
30.6
22.0
26.7
25.5
Ope r a t in g pr ofit
717
1 ,1 6 2
1 ,3 7 8
782
1 ,3 3 4
1 ,4 2 7
Operat ing m argin ( % )
11.9
17.3
12.4
11.8
16.3
15.1
N e t profit
437
636
891
500
891
947
Net m argin ( % )
7.3
9.5
12.4
7.6
10.9
10.0
EPS ( I D R)
82
119
167
94
167
177
Source: Bahana
Ex hibit 1 4 . Pe e r s com pa r ison, 2 0 1 6 F- 2 0 1 7 F
I ndone sia
ASTRA AGRO LESTARI TBK PT
SALI M I VOMAS PRATAMA TBK PT
AUSTI NDO NUSANTARA JAYA PT
DHARMA SATYA NUSANTARA PT
SAMPOERNA AGRO TBK PT
TUNAS BARU LAMPUNG TBK PT
PP LONDON SUMATRA I NDONES PT
Ma la y sia
SI ME DARBY BERHAD
I OI CORP BHD
KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
GENTI NG PLANTATI ONS BHD
W e ight e d Av e r a ge
Ma r k e t ca p
( USDbn)
5 .2
2.3
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.8
2 7 .3
12.3
6.8
6.2
2.1
3 2 .5
PER ( x )
2016F
2017F
1 6 .5
1 3 .0
19.8
16.3
18.0
13.4
NA
NA
14.4
11.1
15.0
11.8
8.1
4.6
19.8
14.7
2 8 .5
2 3 .2
31.2
22.7
26.2
24.7
23.9
21.9
33.9
25.0
2 6 .6
2 1 .6
PBV ( x )
2016F
2017F
1 .4
1 .3
1.9
1.8
0.6
0.6
NA
NA
1.9
1.6
1.1
1.0
1.3
1.1
1.4
1.3
2 .7
2 .4
1.6
1.5
5.3
4.2
2.5
2.4
1.9
1.8
2 .5
2 .2
Source: Bloom berg, Bahana
Ba ha na Se cu rit ies – Equ it y Re se a r ch – TBLA I J Cor por a t e Fla sh
EV/ EBI TDA ( x )
2016F
2017F
9 .0
7 .3
10.8
8.9
6.6
5.8
NA
NA
10.3
8.6
8.5
6.8
9.4
6.3
9.9
7.7
1 6 .8
1 4 .8
15.9
13.9
19.2
16.8
14.8
14.0
20.8
16.5
1 5 .6
1 3 .6
Div . y ie ld ( % )
2016F
2017F
1 .6
2 .4
1.6
2.4
1.7
2.0
NA
NA
1.4
1.6
1.1
1.9
3.7
9.3
2.0
2.2
2 .4
2 .6
2.6
3.1
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.6
0.7
0.9
2 .2
2 .6
ROE ( % )
2016F
2017F
8 .6
1 0 .2
10.7
11.6
3.0
4.1
NA
NA
12.5
14.6
7.8
9.5
16.4
25.6
7.0
9.0
1 0 .0
1 0 .6
5.3
6.7
18.9
17.4
11.0
12.0
5.5
7.1
9 .8
1 0 .5
1 Se pt e m be r 2 0 1 6
Tuna s Ba r u La m pun g
Ye a r t o 3 1 D e ce m be r
PROFI T & LOSS ( I D Rbn )
Sa le s
Gr oss pr ofit
EBI TDA
Depreciat ion
EBI T
Net int erest inc./ ( expense)
Forex gain/ ( losses)
Ot her incom e/ ( expense)
Pr e - t a x pr ofit
Taxes
Minorit y int erest
N e t profit
2014
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
6 ,3 3 8
1 ,2 9 3
1 ,0 6 5
270
795
( 201)
( 105)
73
562
( 126)
( 3)
433
5 ,3 3 1
1 ,1 7 0
598
( 6)
604
( 219)
( 165)
43
263
( 62)
( 4)
197
6 ,6 0 9
1 ,4 5 2
999
217
782
( 236)
34
50
630
( 126)
( 4)
500
8 ,1 8 1
2 ,1 8 7
1 ,6 1 9
285
1 ,3 3 4
( 278)
62
1 ,1 1 9
( 224)
( 4)
891
9 ,4 6 5
2 ,4 1 1
1 ,7 6 5
339
1 ,4 2 7
( 310)
72
1 ,1 8 8
( 238)
( 4)
947
BALAN CE SH EET ( I D Rbn )
Cash and equivalent s
Trade receivables
I nvent ories
Fixed asset s
Ot her asset s
Tot a l a sse t s
I nt erest bearing liabilit ies
Trade payables
Ot her liabilit ies
Tot a l lia bilit ie s
Minorit y int erest
Sha r e h olde r s' e qu it y
520
711
956
2,843
2,288
7 ,3 2 8
3,194
292
1,388
4 ,8 7 5
18
2 ,4 3 6
296
797
1,146
4,442
2,601
9 ,2 9 3
4,690
330
1,386
6 ,4 0 6
21
2 ,8 6 6
799
575
937
5,337
2,551
1 0 ,2 0 8
4,887
297
1,778
6 ,9 6 2
26
3 ,2 1 9
662
858
1,264
6,144
3,074
1 2 ,0 1 2
5,687
371
2,186
8 ,2 4 4
33
3 ,7 3 6
460
981
1,418
6,765
3,640
1 3 ,2 7 5
6,287
415
2,521
9 ,2 2 2
38
4 ,0 1 4
CASH FLOW ( I D Rbn )
EBI T
Depreciat ion
Working capit al
Ot her operat ing it em s
Ope r a t in g ca sh flow
Net capit al expendit ure
Fr e e ca sh flow
Equit y raised/ ( bought )
Net borrowings
Ot her financing
N e t ca sh flow
Cash flow at beginning
Ca sh flow a t e n d
795
270
( 308)
( 214)
543
( 999)
( 455)
289
105
( 67)
( 128)
648
520
604
( 6)
( 0)
( 517)
80
( 713)
( 632)
( 5)
360
161
( 116)
520
296
782
217
629
166
1 ,7 9 4
( 1,345)
450
195
( 142)
503
296
799
1,334
285
( 619)
( 150)
850
( 1,420)
( 569)
801
( 369)
( 136)
799
662
1,427
339
( 305)
( 231)
1 ,2 3 0
( 1,370)
( 140)
600
( 663)
( 203)
662
460
20.5
6.4
20.4
16.0
12.5
6.8
70.3
1.1
2.6
109.8
43.6
32
17
63
7.4
2.4
22.0
15.4
11.3
3.7
28.3
1.1
3.8
153.3
50.5
58
27
94
16.4
5.1
22.0
15.1
11.8
7.6
75.0
0.7
2.7
127.0
47.9
32
21
66
25.6
8.0
26.7
20.2
16.3
10.9
75.0
0.8
3.2
134.5
47.3
38
23
77
24.4
7.5
25.5
19.1
15.1
10.0
75.0
0.8
4.7
145.2
47.4
38
21
73
719
( 3)
214
1
9,000
1,133
11,875
542
( 25)
296
38
7,500
3,913
13,393
462
( 15)
213
( 28)
8,000
7,326
13,400
527
14
261
22
8,923
11,326
13,000
577
9
299
14
9,538
14,424
13,000
RATI OS
ROAE ( % )
ROAA ( % )
Gross m argin ( % )
EBI TDA m argin ( % )
EBI T m argin ( % )
Net m argin ( % )
Payout rat io ( % )
Current rat io ( x)
I nt erest coverage ( x)
Net gearing ( % )
Debt s t o asset s ( % )
Debtor t urnover ( days)
Credit or t urnover ( days)
I nvent ory t urnover ( days)
M AJOR ASSUM PTI ON S
FFB product ion ( k tons)
Growt h ( % )
CPO product ion ( k t ons)
Growt h ( % )
ASP CPO ( USD/ t on)
Sugar plant at ion ( ha)
Avg. exchg. rat e (I DR/ USD)
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
Gregorius Gary ( gregorius@bahana.co.id) + 6221 250 5081 ext . 3604
Ba ha na Se cu rit ies – Equ it y Re se a r ch – TBLA I J Cor por a t e Fla sh
W e e x pe ct 2 0 1 7 F r e ve nue a t
I D R8 ,1 8 1 bn, + 2 3 .8 % y- y,
on a cce le r a t e d cont r ibut ion
fr om su ga r se gm e nt
I ncr e a sin g de bt le ve ls …
… t o fina nce e x pa nsion of
it s pa lm
a nd suga r ca ne
pla nt a t ions
I m pr ove d m a r gins a s a
r e sult of r e cove r y in CPO
pr ice s
FFB pr oduct ion t o r e cove r in
2 0 1 7 - 1 8 F post La N ina
Re se a r ch : + 6 2 2 1 2 5 0 5 0 8 1
H a r r y Su
harry.su@bahana.co.id
Senior Associat e Direct or
Head of St rat egy & Research
ext 3600
direct : + 62 21 250 5735
Fa k h r u l Fu lvia n
fakhrul.fulvian@bahana.co.id
Econom ist
ext 3602
M u h a m m a d W a fi
wafi@bahana.co.id
Technical Analyst
ext 3609
Sa r a h Je ssica H u t a pe a
sarah.j essica@bahana.co.id
Research Associat e
ext 3693
H a n di H u t a Ja ya
handi@bahana.co.id
St rat egist and Product Head
ext 3610
Sa n n i Sa t r io D w i Ut om o
sanni@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
I ndust rial Est at es, Propert y
ext 3611
Gr e gor iu s Ga r y
gregorius@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Transport at ion, Plant at ions
ext 3604
Fik r i D zik r ia n Am r u lla h
fikri@bahana.co.id
Research Associat e
ext 3623
Le on a r do H e n r y Ga va za , CFA
leonardo@bahana.co.id
Senior Research Manager
Aut o, Telco, I nfrast ruct ure
ext 3608
Ar a n di Ar ia n t a r a
arandi@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Coal, Met als, Oil & Gas
ext 3619
Re n a ldy Effe n dy
renaldy@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Consum er, Healt hcare
ext 3606
M ich a e l W Se t j oa di
m ichael@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Consum er, Poult ry
ext 3620
M a r dy Or a m a h i Alh u sn a h
m ardy@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Sm all Caps
ext 3621
M a de Ayu W ij a ya t i
m ade.ayu@bahana.co.id
Research Execut ive
ext 3607
Gila n g Pu r n a m a
gilang.purnam a@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Telco
ext 3601
Ze fa n ya H a lim
zefanya@bahana.co.id
CA Manager
ext 3612
N ovia n t y Pe r m a t a Sa r i
noviant y@bahana.co.id
CA
ext 3618
D e a lin g Room : + 6 2 2 1 5 2 7 0 8 0 8 ( For e ign I n st it u t ion a l)
N a t a lia Su r j a dipu t r a
nat alia@bahana.co.id
Direct or of Sales &
Client Relat ionship Managem ent
ext 2500
Am e lia H u sa da
am elia@bahana.co.id
Vice President
I nst it ut ional Equit y Sales
ext 2552
Joh n M . D a sa a d
dasaad@bahana.co.id
I nst it ut ional Equit y Sales
ext 2549
H e ad Office
Graha Niaga, 19t h Floor
Jl. Jend. Sudirm an Kav. 58
Jakart a 12190
I ndonesia
Tel. 62 21 250 5081
Fax. 62 21 522 6049
+ 6 2 2 1 2 5 0 5 5 0 8 ( D om e st ic I n st it u t ion a l)
Ka r t ik a Su t a n di, CFA
kart ika.sut andi@bahana.co.id
Head of Equit y I nst it ut ional Sales
ext 2590
Alvin Gu n a w a n
alvin.gunawan@bahana.co.id
I nst it ut ional Equit y Sales
ext 2591
Ar i Sa n t osa
ari.sant osa@bahana.co.id
Sales Trader
ext 2554
ht t p: / / www .bahana.co.id
+ 6 2 3 1 5 3 5 2 7 8 8 ( Su r a ba ya Br a n ch )
Ash ish Agr a w a l
ashish@bahana.co.id
Vice President
I nst it ut ional Equit y Sales
ext 2550 / 2553
Br a m Ta a r e a
bram @bahana.co.id
I nst it ut ional Equit y Sales
ext 2524
H a n n a M a r ion da
hanna@bahana.co.id
Sales Trader
ext 2525
Yoh a n e s Adh i H a n dok o
yohanes@bahana.co.id
Manager, Surabaya Branch
ext 7250
Su w a r di W idj a j a
Suwardi@bahana.co.id
I nst it ut ional Equit y Sales
ext 2548
Adr ia n a Kosa sih
adri@bahana.co.id
Sales Execut ive
ext 2541
Su r aba ya Bra n ch
Wism a BI I , Ground Floor
Jl. Pem uda 60- 70
Surabaya 60271
I ndonesia
Tel. 62 31 535 2788
Fax. 62 31 546 1157
I m por t a n t D isclosure s a nd D iscla im er
This publicat ion is prepared by PT.Bahana Securit ies and rev iewed by Daiwa Secur it ies Gr oup I nc. and/ or it s affiliat es, and dist r ibut ed out side I ndonesia by
Daiwa Secur it ies Gr oup I nc. and/ or it s affiliat es, ex cept t o t he ext ent expressly pr ov ided herein. Cert ain copies of t his publicat ion m ay be dist r ibut ed inside
and out side of I ndonesia by PT. Bahana Securit ies in accordance w it h relevant law s and regulat ions. This publicat ion and t he cont ent s hereof are int ended
for inform at ion purposes only, and m ay be subj ect t o change w it hout furt her not ice. Any use, disclosure, dist r ibut ion, dissem inat ion, copy ing, pr int ing or
reliance on t his publicat ion for any ot her purpose w it hout our pr ior consent or appr oval is st r ict ly prohibit ed. Any rev iew does not const it ut e a full ver ificat ion
of t he publicat ion and m erely pr ov ides a m inim um check. Neit her Daiwa Secur it ies Group I nc. nor any of it s respect ive parent , holding, subsidiar ies or
affiliat es, nor any of it s respect iv e direct ors, officers, servant s and em ployees, represent nor warrant t he accuracy or com plet eness of t he infor m at ion
cont ained herein or as t o t he ex ist ence of ot her fact s which m ight be significant , and w ill not accept any responsibilit y or liabilit y what soever for any use of or
reliance upon t his publicat ion or any of t he cont ent s hereof. Neit her t his publicat ion, nor any cont ent hereof, const it ut e, or are t o be const rued as, an offer or
solicit at ion of an offer t o buy or sell any of t he secur it ies or invest m ent s m ent ioned herein in any count ry or j urisdict ion nor, unless expressly prov ided, any
recom m endat ion or invest m ent opinion or adv ice. Any v iew , recom m endat ion, opinion or adv ice expressed in t his publicat ion const it ut es t he v iew s of t he
analyst ( s) nam ed herein and does not necessar ily reflect t hose of Daiwa Securit ies Gr oup I nc. and/ or it s affiliat es nor any of it s respect ive direct ors, officers,
servant s and em ployees except w here t he publicat ion st at es ot herw ise. This research report is not t o be relied upon by any person in m ak ing any invest m ent
decision or ot her w ise adv ising w it h respect t o, or dealing in, t he securit ies m ent ioned, as it does not t ake int o account t he specific inv est m ent obj ect ives,
financial sit uat ion and part icular needs of any person.
Neit her Daiwa Secur it ies Group I nc. nor any of it s affiliat es is licensed t o undert ake any business w it hin t he Republic of I ndonesia. Any display of any t rade
nam e or logo of t he Daiwa Securit ies Group I nc. on t his publicat ion shall not be deem ed t o be an undert ak ing of any business w it hin t he Republic of
I ndonesia.
Daiwa Securit ies Gr oup I nc., it s subsidiar ies or affiliat es, or it s or t heir respect ive direct ors, officers and em ployees from t im e t o t im e m ay have t rades as
principals, or have posit ions in, or have ot her int erest s in t he securit ies of t he com pany under research including m arket m ak ing act iv it ies, derivat ives in
respect of such secur it ies or m ay have also perform ed invest m ent bank ing and ot her serv ices for t he issuer of such secur it ies. The follow ing are addit ional
disclosures.
Ownership of Secur it ies
For “ Ownership of Secur it ies” infor m at ion, please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure link at ht t ps: / / daiwa3. bluem at rix. com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion.
I nvest m ent Bank ing Relat ionship
For “ I nvest m ent Bank ing Relat ionship” , please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure link at ht t ps: / / daiwa3.bluem at rix.com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion.
Ja pa n
Daiwa Secur it ies Co. Lt d. and Daiwa Secur it ies Group I nc.
Daiwa Secur it ies Co. Lt d. is a subsidiar y of Daiw a Secur it ies Group I nc.
I nvest m ent Bank ing Relat ionship
Wit hin t he preceding 12 m ont hs, The subsidiaries and/ or affiliat es of Daiwa Securit ies Group I nc. * has lead- m anaged public offerings and/ or secondary offerings
(excluding st raight bonds) of t he securit ies of t he following com panies: China Reinsurance Group Corporat ion (1508 HK).
* Subsidiar ies of Daiwa Secur it ies Group I nc. for t he purposes of t his sect ion shall m ean any one or m ore of:
• Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s Hong Kong Lim it ed ( 大和資本市場香港有限公司)
• Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s Singapore Lim it ed
• Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s Aust ralia Lim it ed
• Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s I ndia Pr ivat e Lim it ed
• Daiwa- Cat hay Capit al Market s Co. , Lt d.
• Daiwa Secur it ies Capit al Market s Korea Co., Lt d
Disclosure of I nt erest of Bahana Securit ies
I nvest m ent Bank ing Relat ionship
Wit hin t he preceding 12 m ont hs, Bahana Securit ies has lead- m anaged public offer ings and/ or secondary offer ings ( ex cluding st raight bonds) of t he secur it ies
of t he follow ing com panies: Anabat ic Technologies Tbk PT ( ATI C I J) ; Aneka Tam bang Persero Tbk PT ( ANTM I J) ; PT Telek om unikasi I ndonesia ( Persero) Tbk
( TLKM I J) .
H ong Kong
This research is dist r ibut ed in Hong Kong by Daiwa Capit al Market s Hong Kong Lim it ed ( 大和資本市場香港有限公司) ( “ DHK” ) which is r egulat ed by t he Hong
Kong Secur it ies and Fut ures Com m ission. Recipient s of t his research in Hong Kong m ay cont act DHK in respect of any m at t er ar ising from or in connect ion
w it h t his research.
Relevant Relat ionship ( DHK)
DHK m ay from t im e t o t im e have an indiv idual em ployed by or associat ed w it h it serves as an officer of any of t he com panies under it s research coverage.
Singa por e
This resear ch is dist r ibut ed in Singapore by Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s Singapore Lim it ed and it m ay only be dist r ibut ed in Singapore t o accredit ed invest ors,
expert invest ors and inst it ut ional invest ors as defined in t he Financial Adv isers Regulat ions and t he Securit ies and Fut ures Act ( Chapt er 289) , as am ended
from t im e t o t im e. By v irt ue of dist ribut ion t o t hese cat egory of inv est ors, Daiwa Capit al Market s Singapore Lim it ed and it s represent at ives are not required
t o com ply w it h Sect ion 36 of t he Financial Adv isers Act ( Chapt er 110) ( Sect ion 36 relat es t o disclosure of Daiwa Capit al Market s Singapore Lim it ed’s int erest
and/ or it s represent at ive’s int erest in secur it ies) . Recipient s of t his r esearch in Singapore m ay cont act Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s Singapore Lim it ed in respect of
any m at t er ar ising from or in connect ion w it h t he research.
Aust r a lia
This research is dist r ibut ed in Aust ralia by Daiwa Capit al Market s Aust ralia Lim it ed and it m ay only be dist r ibut ed in Aust ralia t o wholesale invest ors w it hin
t he m eaning of t he Corporat ions Act . Recipient s of t his research in Aust ralia m ay cont act Daiwa Capit al Market s St ock brok ing Lim it ed in respect of any
m at t er ar ising from or in connect ion w it h t he research.
I ndia
This research is dist r ibut ed in I ndia t o I nst it ut ional Client s only by Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s I ndia Pr ivat e Lim it ed ( Daiwa I ndia) which is an int erm ediar y
regist ered w it h Secur it ies & Exchange Board of I ndia as a St ock Broker, Merchant Bank and Research Analy st . Daiwa I ndia, it s Research Analyst and t heir
fam ily m em bers and it s associat es do not have any financial int erest save as disclosed or ot her undisclosed m at er ial conflict of int erest in t he secur it ies or
derivat ives of any com panies under coverage. Daiwa I ndia and it s associat es, m ay have received com pensat ion for any product s ot her t han I nvest m ent
Banking ( as disclosed) or br okerage serv ices fr om t he subj ect com pany in t his report or fr om any t hird part y during t he past 12 m ont hs. Daiwa I ndia and it s
associat es m ay have debt holdings in t he subj ect com pany. For inform at ion on ownership of equit y, please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure Link at
htt ps: / / daiwa3.bluematrix.com / sellside/ Disclosures.action.
There is no m at er ial disciplinar y act ion against Daiwa I ndia by any regulat or y aut hor it y im pact ing equit y research analy sis act iv it ies as of t he dat e of t his
report .
Associat es of Daiwa I ndia, regist ered w it h I ndian regulat or s, include Daiwa Capit al Market s Singapor e Lim it ed and Daiwa Port folio Adv isory ( I ndia) Pr ivat e
Lim it ed.
Ta iw a n
This research is dist r ibut ed in Taiwan by Daiwa- Cat hay Capit al Mar ket s Co., Lt d and it m ay only be dist r ibut ed in Taiwan t o inst it ut ional invest ors or specific
invest ors who have signed recom m endat ion cont ract s w it h Daiwa- Cat hay Capit al Mar ket s Co., Lt d in accordance w it h t he Operat ional Regulat ions Governing
Securit ies Fir m s Recom m ending Trades in Securit ies t o Cust om ers. Recipient s of t his research in Taiw an m ay cont act Daiwa- Cat hay Capit al Mar ket s Co., Lt d
in respect of any m at t er ar ising fr om or in connect ion w it h t he research.
Philippine s
This research is dist r ibut ed in t he Philippines by DBP- Daiwa Capit al Market s Philippines, I nc. which is r egulat ed by t he Philippines Securit ies and Exchange
Com m ission and t he Philippines St ock Ex change, I nc. Recipient s of t his research in t he Philippines m ay cont act DBP- Daiw a Capit al Market s Philippines, I nc.
in respect of any m at t er ar ising fr om or in connect ion w it h t he research. DBP- Daiwa Capit al Market s Philippines, I nc. recom m ends t hat invest ors
independent ly assess, w it h a pr ofessional adv isor , t he specific financial risk s as well as t he legal, regulat ory, t ax, account ing, and ot her consequences of a
proposed t ransact ion. DBP- Daiw a Capit al Market s Philippines, I nc. m ay have posit ions or m ay be m at erially int erest ed in t he secur it ies in any of t he m arket s
m ent ioned in t he publicat ion or m ay have perform ed ot her serv ices for t he issuers of such secur it ies.
For relevant secur it ies and t rading rules please v isit SEC and PSE link at h t t p: / / w w w . sec. gov . ph / ir r / Am en dedI RRf in alv er sion . pdf an d
h t t p: / / w w w . pse. com . ph / respect ively.
Unit e d Kingdom
This research report is produced by Daiwa Secur it ies Co. Lt d. and/ or it s affiliat es and is dist r ibut ed in t he European Union, I celand, Liecht enst ein, Nor way
and Sw it zer land. Daiwa Capit al Market s Europe Lim it ed is aut hor ised and regulat ed by The Financial Conduct Aut hor it y ( “ FCA” ) and is a m em ber of t he
London St ock Ex change and Eurex. This publicat ion is int ended for invest ors who are not Ret ail Client s in t he Unit ed Kingdom w it hin t he m eaning of t he
Rules of t he FCA and should not t herefore be dist ribut ed t o such Ret ail Client s in t he Unit ed Kingdom . Should you ent er int o invest m ent business w it h Daiwa
Capit al Market s Europe’s affiliat es out side t he Unit ed Kingdom , w e are obliged t o adv ise t hat t he prot ect ion afforded by t he Unit ed Kingdom regulat or y
syst em m ay not apply ; in part icular, t he benefit s of t he Financial Services Com pensat ion Schem e m ay not be available.
Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s Europe Lim it ed has in place organisat ional arrangem ent s for t he prevent ion and av oidance of conflict s of int erest . Our conflict
m anagem ent policy is available at h t t p: / / w w w . u k . daiw acm . com / abou t - u s/ cor por at e- gov er n an ce- r egu lat or y .
Ge r m a ny
This docum ent is dist r ibut ed in Germ any by Daiwa Capit al Market s Europe Lim it ed, Nieder lassung Frankfurt which is regulat ed by BaFin ( Bundesanst alt fuer
Finanzdienst leist ungsaufsicht ) for t he conduct of business in Germ any.
Ba hr a in
This research m at er ial is dist ribut ed by Daiw a Capit al Market s Europe Lim it ed, Bahrain Branch, r egulat ed by The Cent ral Bank of Bahrain and holds
I nvest m ent Business Fir m – Cat egory 2 license and hav ing it s official place of business at t he Bahrain Wor ld Trade Cent re, Sout h Tower, 7t h floor, P.O. Box
30069, Manam a, Kingdom of Bahr ain. Tel No. + 973 17534452 Fax No. + 973 535113
This m at er ial is prov ided as a reference for m ak ing invest m ent decisions and is not int ended t o be a solicit at ion for invest m ent . I nvest m ent decisions should
be m ade at your own discret ion and risk. Accor dingly, no represent at ion or w arrant y, ex press or im plied, is m ade as t o and no reliance should be placed on
t he fairness, accuracy, com plet eness or correct ness of t he infor m at ion and opinions cont ained in t his docum ent , Cont ent herein is based on infor m at ion
available at t he t im e t he research m at erial was prepared and m ay be am ended or ot herw ise changed in t he fut ure w it hout not ice. All inform at ion is int ended
for t he pr ivat e use of t he person t o whom it is prov ided w it hout any liabilit y what soever on t he part of Daiwa Capit al Market s Europe Lim it ed, Bahrain
Branch, any associat ed com pany or t he em ployees t hereof. I f you are in doubt about t he suit abilit y of t he product or t he research m at erial it self, please
consult y our own financial adv iser. Daiwa Capit al Market s Europe Lim it ed, Bahrain Branch ret ains all r ight s relat ed t o t he cont ent of t his m at er ial, which m ay
not be redist r ibut ed or ot herw ise t ransm it t ed w it hout pr ior consent .
Unit e d St a t e s
This report is dist r ibut ed in t he U. S. by Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s Am erica I nc. ( DCMA) . I t m ay not be accurat e or com plet e and should not be relied upon
as such. I t reflect s t he preparer’s v iews at t he t im e of it s preparat ion, but m ay not reflect event s occurring aft er it s preparat ion; nor does it reflect
PT.Bahana Secur it ies’ or DCMA’s v iews at any t im e. Neit her PT.Bahana Securit ies, DCMA nor t he preparer has any obligat ion t o updat e t his report
or t o cont inue t o prepare research on t his subj ect . This report is not an offer t o sell or t he solicit at ion of any offer t o buy secur it ies. Unless t his report
says ot her w ise, any recom m endat ion it m akes is r isk y and appropr iat e only for sophist icat ed speculat iv e invest or s able t o incur significant losses.
Readers should consult t heir financial adv isors t o det erm ine whet her any such recom m endat ion is consist ent w it h t heir own invest m ent obj ect ives,
financial sit uat ion and needs. This report does not recom m end t o U.S. recipient s t he use of any of PT.Bahana Securit ies’ or DCMA’s non- U.S.
affiliat es t o effect t rades in any securit y and is not supplied w it h any underst anding t hat U.S. recipient s of t his report w ill direct com m ission business t o
such non- U.S. ent it ies. Unless applicable law perm it s ot her w ise, non- U.S. cust om ers w ishing t o effect a t ransact ion in any secur it ies referenced in t his
m at erial should cont act a Daiwa ent it y in t heir local j ur isdict ion. Most count r ies t hroughout t he wor ld have t heir own law s regulat ing t he t ypes of
securit ies and ot her invest m ent pr oduct s which m ay be offered t o t heir resident s, as well as a process for doing so. As a result , t he secur it ies
discussed in t his report m ay not be eligible for sales in som e j ur isdict ions. Cust om ers w ishing t o obt ain furt her inform at ion about t his report should
cont act DCMA: Daiwa Capit al Mark et s Am er ica I nc., Financial Square, 32 Old Slip, New Yor k, New Yor k 10005 ( Tel no. 212- 612- 7000) .
Ow ne r ship of Se cur it ie s
For “ Ownership of Secur it ies” infor m at ion please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure Link at ht t ps: / / daiwa3. bluem at r ix. com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion .
I nve st m e n t Ba nk ing Re la t ionships
For “ I nvest m ent Bank ing Relat ionships” please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure link at ht t ps: / / daiwa3.bluem at rix.com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion.
D CM A M a r k e t M a k ing
For “ DCMA Market Mak ing” please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure link at ht t ps: / / daiwa3.bluem at rix. com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion.
Re se a r ch Ana ly st Con flict s
For updat es on “ Research Analyst Conflict s” please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure link at ht t ps: / / daiwa3.bluem at rix. com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion. The
principal research analyst s who pr epared t his report have no financial int erest in secur it ies of t he issuers covered in t he report , are not ( nor are any
m em bers of t heir household) an officer, direct or or adv isory board m em ber of t he issuer( s) covered in t he report , and are not aware of any m at erial
relevant conflict of int erest involv ing t he analy st or DCMA, and did not receive any com pensat ion from t he issuer dur ing t he past 12 m ont hs except as
not ed: no except ions.
Re se a r ch Ana ly st Ce r t ifica t ion
For updat es on “ Research Analyst Cert ificat ion” and “ Rat ing Sy st em ” please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure link at
ht t ps: / / daiwa3.bluem at rix.com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion. The v iews about any and all of t he subj ect securit ies and issuers expressed in t his
Research Report accurat ely reflect t he personal v iews of t he research analyst ( s) prim ar ily responsible for t his report ( or t he v iew s of t he fir m
producing t he report if no indiv idual analyst s[ s] is nam ed on t he report ) ; and no part of t he com pensat ion of such analyst ( s) ( or no part of t he
com pensat ion of t he fir m if no indiv idual analyst [ s) ] is nam ed on t he report ) was, is, or w ill be direct ly or indirect ly relat ed t o t he specific
recom m endat ions or v iews cont ained in t his Research Report .
For st ock s a nd se ct or s in I ndone sia cove r e d by Ba ha na Se cur it ie s, t he follow ing rat ing sy st em is in effect :
St ock rat ings are based on absolut e upside or downside, which is t he difference bet ween t he t arget pr ice and t he current m ar ket pr ice. Unless ot her w ise
specified, t hese rat ings are set w it h a 12- m ont h hor izon. I t is possible t hat fut ure pr ice volat ilit y m ay cause a t em porary m ism at ch bet w een upside/ downside
for a st ock based on t he m ar ket pr ice and t he form al rat ing.
" Buy" : t he price of t he secur it y is expect ed t o increase by 10% or m ore.
" Hold" : t he pr ice of t he secur it y is expect ed t o range fr om an increase of less t han 10% t o a decline of less t han 5% .
" Reduce" : t he pr ice of t he secur it y is expect ed t o decline by 5% or m ore.
Sect or rat ings are based on fundam ent als for t he sect or as a whole. Hence, a sect or m ay be rat ed “ Overweight ” even t hough it s const it uent st ock s are all
rat ed “ Reduce” ; and a sect or m ay be rat ed “ Underweight ” even t hough it s const it uent st ocks are all rat ed “ Buy” .
“ Overweight ” : posit ive fundam ent als for t he sect or.
“ Neut ral” : neit her posit ive nor negat ive fundam ent als for t he sect or.
“ Underweight ” : negat ive fundam ent als for t he sect or.
Ownership of Secur it ies
For “ Ownership of Secur it ies” infor m at ion, please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure Link at ht t ps: / / daiw a3.bluem at rix. com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion .
I nvest m ent Bank ing Relat ionships
For “ I nvest m ent Bank ing Relat ionship” , please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure Link at ht t ps: / / daiwa3.bluem at rix .com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion .
Relevant Relat ionships ( Bahana Securit ies)
Bahana Securit ies m ay from t im e t o t im e have an indiv idual em ploy ed by or associat ed w it h it serves as an officer of any of t he com panies under it s research
coverage.
Bahana Securit ies m arket m ak ing
Bahana Securit ies m ay fr om t im e t o t im e m ake a m arket in secur it ies covered by t his research.
Addit iona l in for m a t ion m a y be a va ila ble upon r e que st .
Ja pa n - a ddit iona l not ifica t ion it e m s pur sua nt t o Ar t icle 3 7 of t he Fina ncia l I n st r u m e n t s a nd Ex cha nge La w
( This Not ificat ion is only applicable where report is dist ribut ed by Daiwa Secur it ies Co. Lt d.)
I f y ou decide t o ent er int o a business arrangem ent w it h us based on t he inform at ion descr ibed in m at erials present ed along w it h t his docum ent , we ask you
t o pay close at t ent ion t o t he follow ing it em s.
• I n addit ion t o t he purchase pr ice of a financial inst rum ent , we w ill collect a t rading com m ission* for each t ransact ion as agreed beforehand w it h you. Since
com m issions m ay be included in t he purchase pr ice or m ay not be charged for cert ain t ransact ions, w e recom m end t hat you confirm t he com m ission for
each t ransact ion.
• I n som e cases, we m ay also charge a m ax im um of ¥ 2 m illion ( including t ax) per year as a st anding proxy fee for our deposit of y our securit ies, if you are
a non- resident of Japan.
• For derivat ive and m ar gin t ransact ions et c., we m ay require collat eral or m argin requirem ent s in accor dance w it h an agreem ent m ade beforehand w it h
you. Ordinar ily in such cases, t he am ount of t he t ransact ion w ill be in excess of t he required collat eral or m argin requirem ent s.
• There is a r isk t hat you w ill incur losses on y our t ransact ions due t o changes in t he m arket pr ice of financial inst rum ent s based on fluct uat ions in int erest
rat es, exchange rat es, st ock pr ices, real est at e pr ices, com m odit y prices, and ot hers. I n addit ion, depending on t he cont ent of t he t ransact ion, t he loss
could exceed t he am ount of t he collat eral or m argin requirem ent s.
• There m ay be a difference bet ween bid pr ice et c. and ask pr ice et c. of OTC der ivat ives handled by us.
• Before engaging in any t rading, please t horoughly confirm account ing and t ax t reat m ent s regarding y our t rading in financial inst rum ent s w it h such expert s
as cert ified public account ant s.
* The am ount of t he t rading com m ission cannot be st at ed here in advance because it w ill be det erm ined bet ween our com pany and you based on current
m arket condit ions and t he cont ent of each t ransact ion et c.
When m ak ing an act ual t ransact ion, please be sure t o carefully read t he m at er ials present ed t o y ou pr ior t o t he execut ion of agreem ent , and t o t ake
responsibilit y for y our own decisions regarding t he signing of t he agr eem ent w it h us.
Corporat e Nam e:
Mem berships:
Daiwa Secur it ies Co. Lt d.
Financial inst rum ent s fir m : chief of Kant o Local Finance Bureau ( Kin- sho) No.108
Japan Secur it ies Dealers Associat ion, Financial Fut ures Associat ion of Japan
Japan Secur it ies I nvest m ent Adv isers Associat ion
Type I I Financial I nst rum ent s Firm s Associat ion
Asiamoney’s
2013
Best Domestic
Equity House
1 Se pt e m be r 2 0 1 6
Tu na s Ba r u La m pu ng
BUY
Sect or: Plant at ions ( Neut ral)
( unchanged)
Rat ing m om ent um * :
Gr e gor iu s Ga r y
PX: I DR760–TP: I DR1,180 ( From I DR850)
TP/ consensus: 139% ; TP m om ent um * :
JCI : 5,335
E- m ail: gregorius@bahana.co.id
Phone: + 6221 250 5081 ext . 3604
Suga r r ush
Fully int e gr a t e d bu sine ss by 2 0 1 7 F t o a llow suga r r e ve nue t o t r iple :
On t he back of a m aj or sugar expansion, TBLA is set t o t riple it s 1H16 sugarrelat ed revenue of I DR1t n t o nearly I DR3t n by end- 2017 by set t ing- up a
sugar m ill. The com pany’s foray int o t he sugar business in Lam pung st art ed
back in 2012 via conversion of plant at ion from exist ing palm t o sugarcane
due t o great er soil suit abilit y. Addit ionally, Lam pung is st rat egically locat ed
bet ween Java and Sum at ra, t he biggest sugar m arket s in I ndonesia. As a
m aj or init iat ive t o int egrat e it s sugar business, TBLA st art ed developing it s
own sugar m ill wit h a t ot al capacit y of 120k t ons per annum , and is expect ed
t o be operat ional by end- 2016. Once com plet e, TBLA’s sugar m ill would allow
t he processing of it s own harvest ed sugarcane int o whit e sugar, creat ing
higher value add. I n 2017F, we expect whit e sugar product ion of 99.6k t ons
from a t ot al sugarcane plant ed area of 14.4k ha ( exhibit 8) wit h an average
yield of 100t ons/ ha.
CPO pr ice r e cove r y t o dr ive 2 0 1 7 F e a r nings: Apart from t he sugar
business, we expect posit ive perform ance from TBLA’s CPO segm ent ,
part icularly on our expect at ions of cont inued price upt rend. I n 2016F, we
expect CPO price of USD625/ m t , before increasing t o USD750/ m t in 2017F,
as current recovery in CPO dem and from m aj or global cust om ers ( i.e. China
and I ndia) out paces t he slower global CPO product ion and invent ory level.
This should result in higher earnings for TBLA as w e expect it s CPO ASP t o
reach I DR8,923/ kg coupled wit h higher product ion of 261k t ons.
Sha r e h olde r bon us fr om r e fine r y busine ss: On anot her posit ive not e,
TBLA has obt ained a 262k t ons sugar im port quot a from t he governm ent t his
year t o produce refined sugar for t he local m arket . We expect t his t o be
fruit ful for TBLA, t ranslat ing int o I DR2.2t n in addit ional 2016F revenue wit h a
high gross m argin of 40.5% . Not e t hat hist orical dat a shows worsening sugar
deficit in t he past 5 years ( exhibit 6) , im plying lim it ed developm ent of
I ndonesia’s sugar indust r y wit h product ion badly out st ripped by rapidlygrowing dom est ic dem and. Therefore, we believe t hat t he governm ent will
cont inue t o allow sugar im port s and furt her raise im port quot a t o fulfil t he
exist ing sugar deficit in t he next few years. This is despit e t he governm ent ’s
plan t o m ake I ndonesia self- sufficient in sugar. Looking ahead, alt hough we
expect t he sugar refinery business t o provide cont inued addit ional earnings
t o shareholders, we have conservat ively priced t his business segm ent at only
1.0x PE, cont ribut ing only I DR40/ share t o our TP.
Ex hibit 1 . Com pa n y inform a t ion
Market cap ( I DRb/ USDm )
:
3M avg.daily t .o.( I DRb/ USDm )
:
Bloom berg code
:
Source: Bloom berg
Ex hibit 2 . Sha r eh olde r s in form at ion
Budi Delt a Sw akarya ( % )
:
Sungai Budi ( % )
:
Ot hers ( % )
:
Free float ( % )
:
27.80
26.49
1.47
45.62
Source: Bloom berg
Ex hibit 3 . Ke y fore ca st s an d va lu at ion s
2015 2016F 2017F
Ye a r t o 3 1 D e c
Revenue ( I DRbn)
5,331
6,609 8,181
EBI T ( I DRt n)
604
782 1,334
Net profit ( I DRbn)
197
500
891
Bahana/ cns. ( % )
na
na
EPS ( I DR)
37
94
167
EPS growt h ( % )
( 58)
154
78
EV/ EBI TDA ( x)
11.8
9.4
6.3
PER ( x)
20.6
8.1
4.6
FCFPS ( I DR)
( 0)
0
( 0)
FCF yield ( % )
( 0.0)
0.0
( 0.0)
BVPS ( I DR)
536
603
699
PBV ( x)
1.4
1.3
1.1
DPS ( I DR)
23
28
70
Yield ( % )
3.0
3.7
9.3
ROAA ( % )
2.4
5.1
8.0
ROAE ( % )
7.4
16.4
25.6
EBI T m argin ( % )
11.3
11.8
16.3
Net gearing ( % )
153.3
127.0 134.5
2018F
9,465
1,427
947
na
177
6
6.2
4.3
( 0)
( 0.0)
751
1.0
125
16.6
7.5
24.4
15.1
145.2
Source: Bloom berg, Bahana est im at es
Not e: Pricing as of close on 1 Sept em ber 2016
Ex hibit 4 . Rela t ive sh a re price pe r for m a n ce
(% )
(% )
60
60
53.4
50
50
40.4
40
40
32.9
30
30
18.6
20
17.5
20
9.1
10
10
0
0
yt d
1M
3M
6M
9M
12M
t bla I J relat iv e t o JCI
Source: Bloom berg, Bahana
Ex hibit 5 . Rela t ive pe rform an ce t o JCI , yt d
(% )
40
Ra t ing: BUY w it h highe r TP of I D R1 ,1 8 0 or 5 5 % upside pot e nt ia l
I n line wit h our 40% earnings upgrade for 2017F on t he st rong perform ance of
TBLA’s sugar m ill and CPO business, we have r aised our TP by 39% t o
I DR1,180 ( SOTP- based, exhibit 11) , from I DR850. As such, we expect t he
st ock t o sust ain it s m arket out perform ance ( exhibit 4) and reit erat e our BUY
recom m endat ion. Risks t o our call are I DR appreciat ion, lower- t han- expect ed
CPO prices, possible lower sugar im port quot a, pot ent ial cap on cooking oil
prices and furt her delay in sugar m ill proj ect com plet ion.
4,060.0/ 306.0
2,296.4/ 173.1
TBLA I J
(% )
40
37.5
33.9
32.9
30
30
20
20
10
10
5.1
1.3
0.6
0
0
( 5.3)
( 10)
BWPT
SI MP
TBLA
Sect or
LSI P
SGRO
ANJT
( 8.9)
AALI
( 10)
Source: Bloom berg, Bahana
Disclosure: Bahana Securit ies does and seeks t o do business wit h com panies covered in it s research report s. I nvest ors should consider t his report as only a single fact or in
m aking t heir invest m ent decision.
Please see t he im port ant disclaim er inform at ion on t he back of t his r eport
*Based on consensus’ recent changes ↑ (up), ↓ (down), ↔ (unchanged)
1 Se pt e m be r 2 0 1 6
Ex hibit 6 . I ndone sia suga r dom e st ic con su m pt ion & pr odu ct ion, 2 0 0 4 - 2 0 1 5
( k t ons)
6.0
5.5
5.6
5.7
I ndone sia ’s
su ga r
de ficit
cont in ue d t o w or se n in t he
pa st 5 ye a r s, …
5.3
4.8
4.7
5.0
4.5
4.3
4.3
4.1
4.0
4.0
3.3
2.8
3.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2005
2006
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.3
2010
2011
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.5
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.0
1.0
2004
2007
2008
2009
Dom est ic consum pt ion
Pr oduct ion
Source: Com pany
Ex hibit 7 . Su ga r pr ice , Apr il 2 0 0 9 – Au gu st 2 0 1 6
( I DR/ k g)
… lift ing dom e st ic suga r
pr ice s fa r a bove globa l suga r
pr ice s
10,000
9, 000
8, 000
7, 000
6, 000
5, 000
4, 000
3, 000
2, 000
1, 000
Apr - 09
Jun- 09
Aug- 09
Oct - 09
Dec- 09
Feb- 10
Apr - 10
Jun- 10
Aug- 10
Oct - 10
Dec- 10
Feb- 11
Apr - 11
Jun- 11
Aug- 11
Oct - 11
Dec- 11
Feb- 12
Apr - 12
Jun- 12
Aug- 12
Oct - 12
Dec- 12
Feb- 13
Apr - 13
Jun- 13
Aug- 13
Oct - 13
Dec- 13
Feb- 14
Apr - 14
Jun- 14
Aug- 14
Oct - 14
Dec- 14
Feb- 15
Apr - 15
Jun- 15
Aug- 15
Oct - 15
Dec- 15
Feb- 16
Apr - 16
Jun- 16
Aug- 16
-
I ndonesia sugar floor price
Global sugar pr ice
Source: Com pany, Bloom berg, Bahana
Ex hibit 8 . Su ga r ca ne pla nt a t ion pla nt e d a r e a & a ve r a ge a ge , 2 0 1 2 - 2 0 1 8 F
( years)
( ha)
20,000
4.0
17,993
18,000
3.6
16,000
3.2
14,424
14,000
2.8
11,326
12,000
2.4
10,000
2.0
7,326
8, 000
1.6
6, 000
3,913
1.2
4, 000
2, 000
1,305
1,133
2012
2013
0.8
-
0.4
2014
2015
Tot al plant ed area
2016F
2017F
Average age ( RHS)
Source: Com pany , Bahana
Ba ha na Se cu rit ies – Equ it y Re se a r ch – TBLA I J Cor por a t e Fla sh
2018F
TBLA’s
t ot a l
suga r ca ne
pla nt e d a r e a t o r e a ch 1 7 .9 k
ha by 2 0 1 8 F
1 Se pt e m be r 2 0 1 6
Ex hibit 9 . Re ve nue cont r ibut ion pe r se gm e nt , 2 0 1 4 - 2 0 1 8 F
( I DRbn)
10,000
Suga r
m ill
a nd
suga r
r e fine r y
pr oduct s
should
t oge t he r cont r ibut e 3 7 % of
2 0 1 7 F r e ve nue
9, 000
-
8, 000
3,297
7, 000
6, 000
2,996
277
42
884
144
600
5, 000
2,200
4, 000
3, 000
6,168
5,412
4,587
2, 000
5,185
4,132
1, 000
2014
2015
Palm oil product s
2016F
2017F
Sugar product s
2018F
Ot hers
Source: Com pany, Bahana
Ex hibit 1 0 . Su ga r ca ne pla nt a t ion, m ill & r e fine ry loca t ion, 2 0 1 6
The 1 2 0 k t on s su ga r m ill is
st r a t e gica lly loca t e d w it hin
t he
com pa ny’s suga r ca ne
pla nt a t ion a r e a
Source: Com pany
Ex hibit 1 1 . TBLA’s sum - of- t he - pa r t s va lua t ion
M e t hod
Va lu e
D ivision
Palm and sugar m ill business
2017F PE of 9.0x
6,095
Sugar r efiner y business
2017F PE of 1.0x
214
Tot al value ( I DRbn)
6,309
Shar es out st anding ( m n)
5,342
Va lu e / Sha r e ( I D R)
Source: Bahana forecast s
Ba ha na Se cu rit ies – Equ it y Re se a r ch – TBLA I J Cor por a t e Fla sh
1 ,1 8 0
SOTP va lua t ion r e sult s in a
2 0 1 7 F TP of I D R1 ,1 8 0
1 Se pt e m be r 2 0 1 6
Ex hibit 1 2 . TBLA 2 Q1 6 r e sult s sum m a r y
( I D Rbn)
Sa le s
Gr oss pr ofit
Operat ing expenses
Ope r a t ing pr ofit
Net int erest incom e/ ( expenses)
FX gain ( loss)
Ot her incom e ( ex pense)
Pr e t a x pr ofit
Taxat ion
Minor it y I nt erest
N e t pr ofit
BS & Ra t io a na lysis
Gross m argin ( % )
Operat ing m ar gin ( % )
Pret ax m argin ( % )
Net m argin ( % )
I nvent ory Days
Receivable Days
Payable Days
Tot al cash
Tot al debt
Net gear ing ( % )
2 Q1 5
1 ,3 7 5 . 8
2 8 9 .1
( 113.1)
3 7 6 .0
( 55.4)
( 48.1)
( 189.1)
8 3 .4
( 26.8)
( 0.7)
5 5 .9
2 Q1 5
21.0
27.3
6.1
4.1
82
44
27
389
3,708
132.0
1 Q1 6
1 ,0 2 6 . 9
2 4 1 .6
( 130.3)
1 1 1 .3
( 56.9)
26.1
6.5
8 7 .1
( 21.9)
( 0.1)
6 5 .2
1 Q1 6
23.5
10.8
8.5
6.3
144
81
61
226
5,077
165.8
2 Q1 6
1 ,8 8 5 . 3
5 2 3 .7
( 132.7)
5 0 2 .3
( 70.0)
7.7
( 104.5)
3 3 5 .5
( 90.6)
( 0.3)
2 4 4 .6
2 Q1 6
27.8
26.6
17.8
13.0
76
40
50
326
5,198
153.7
q- q
(% )
8 3 .6
1 1 6 .8
1.8
3 5 1 .4
23.1
( 70.4)
na
2 8 5 .3
314.6
405.9
2 7 5 .4
y- y
(% )
3 7 .0
8 1 .1
17.3
3 3 .6
26.3
( 116.1)
( 44.7)
3 0 2 .4
238.1
( 64.4)
3 3 8 .0
2 Q1 6 /
2 Q1 6 F
118
274
284
1H16
2 ,9 1 2 . 2
765.3
( 263.0)
5 0 2 .3
( 126.8)
33.8
13.3
4 2 2 .6
( 112.4)
( 0.3)
3 0 9 .8
1H16
26.3
17.2
14.5
10.6
96
52
64
326
5,198
153.7
y- y
(% )
7 .0
2 7 .5
17.4
3 3 .6
24.8
( 135.8)
( 25.5)
1 1 3 .7
125.5
( 72.3)
1 1 1 .1
2015A
22.0
11.3
4.9
3.7
99
54
29
296
4,690
153.8
1H16/
2016F
51
1H16/
Cons
na
74
na
123
2 0 1 6 F*
22.5
11.9
6.1
4.4
78
46.31
15
228
4,028
123.8
na
2 0 1 7 F*
23.2
12.5
7.8
5.6
72
42.46
14
425
4,163
111.0
Source: Com pany, Bloom berg * using old forecast num bers
Ex hibit 1 3 . Ea r nings r e visions
Old
( I D Rbn )
2016F
2017F
New
2018F
2016F
2017F
Ch a nge ( % )
2018F
2016F
2017F
2018F
Re v e n u e
6 ,0 2 2
6 ,7 1 8
7 ,1 7 6
6 ,6 0 9
8 ,1 8 1
9 ,4 6 5
9.8
21.8
31.9
Gr oss pr ofit
1 ,3 5 7
1 ,8 7 6
2 ,1 9 3
1 ,4 5 2
2 ,1 8 7
2 ,4 1 1
7.0
16.6
9.9
9.1
14.8
3.5
14.5
40.1
6.3
14.2
40.2
6.1
Gross profit m argin ( % )
22.5
27.9
30.6
22.0
26.7
25.5
Ope r a t in g pr ofit
717
1 ,1 6 2
1 ,3 7 8
782
1 ,3 3 4
1 ,4 2 7
Operat ing m argin ( % )
11.9
17.3
12.4
11.8
16.3
15.1
N e t profit
437
636
891
500
891
947
Net m argin ( % )
7.3
9.5
12.4
7.6
10.9
10.0
EPS ( I D R)
82
119
167
94
167
177
Source: Bahana
Ex hibit 1 4 . Pe e r s com pa r ison, 2 0 1 6 F- 2 0 1 7 F
I ndone sia
ASTRA AGRO LESTARI TBK PT
SALI M I VOMAS PRATAMA TBK PT
AUSTI NDO NUSANTARA JAYA PT
DHARMA SATYA NUSANTARA PT
SAMPOERNA AGRO TBK PT
TUNAS BARU LAMPUNG TBK PT
PP LONDON SUMATRA I NDONES PT
Ma la y sia
SI ME DARBY BERHAD
I OI CORP BHD
KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
GENTI NG PLANTATI ONS BHD
W e ight e d Av e r a ge
Ma r k e t ca p
( USDbn)
5 .2
2.3
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.8
2 7 .3
12.3
6.8
6.2
2.1
3 2 .5
PER ( x )
2016F
2017F
1 6 .5
1 3 .0
19.8
16.3
18.0
13.4
NA
NA
14.4
11.1
15.0
11.8
8.1
4.6
19.8
14.7
2 8 .5
2 3 .2
31.2
22.7
26.2
24.7
23.9
21.9
33.9
25.0
2 6 .6
2 1 .6
PBV ( x )
2016F
2017F
1 .4
1 .3
1.9
1.8
0.6
0.6
NA
NA
1.9
1.6
1.1
1.0
1.3
1.1
1.4
1.3
2 .7
2 .4
1.6
1.5
5.3
4.2
2.5
2.4
1.9
1.8
2 .5
2 .2
Source: Bloom berg, Bahana
Ba ha na Se cu rit ies – Equ it y Re se a r ch – TBLA I J Cor por a t e Fla sh
EV/ EBI TDA ( x )
2016F
2017F
9 .0
7 .3
10.8
8.9
6.6
5.8
NA
NA
10.3
8.6
8.5
6.8
9.4
6.3
9.9
7.7
1 6 .8
1 4 .8
15.9
13.9
19.2
16.8
14.8
14.0
20.8
16.5
1 5 .6
1 3 .6
Div . y ie ld ( % )
2016F
2017F
1 .6
2 .4
1.6
2.4
1.7
2.0
NA
NA
1.4
1.6
1.1
1.9
3.7
9.3
2.0
2.2
2 .4
2 .6
2.6
3.1
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.6
0.7
0.9
2 .2
2 .6
ROE ( % )
2016F
2017F
8 .6
1 0 .2
10.7
11.6
3.0
4.1
NA
NA
12.5
14.6
7.8
9.5
16.4
25.6
7.0
9.0
1 0 .0
1 0 .6
5.3
6.7
18.9
17.4
11.0
12.0
5.5
7.1
9 .8
1 0 .5
1 Se pt e m be r 2 0 1 6
Tuna s Ba r u La m pun g
Ye a r t o 3 1 D e ce m be r
PROFI T & LOSS ( I D Rbn )
Sa le s
Gr oss pr ofit
EBI TDA
Depreciat ion
EBI T
Net int erest inc./ ( expense)
Forex gain/ ( losses)
Ot her incom e/ ( expense)
Pr e - t a x pr ofit
Taxes
Minorit y int erest
N e t profit
2014
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
6 ,3 3 8
1 ,2 9 3
1 ,0 6 5
270
795
( 201)
( 105)
73
562
( 126)
( 3)
433
5 ,3 3 1
1 ,1 7 0
598
( 6)
604
( 219)
( 165)
43
263
( 62)
( 4)
197
6 ,6 0 9
1 ,4 5 2
999
217
782
( 236)
34
50
630
( 126)
( 4)
500
8 ,1 8 1
2 ,1 8 7
1 ,6 1 9
285
1 ,3 3 4
( 278)
62
1 ,1 1 9
( 224)
( 4)
891
9 ,4 6 5
2 ,4 1 1
1 ,7 6 5
339
1 ,4 2 7
( 310)
72
1 ,1 8 8
( 238)
( 4)
947
BALAN CE SH EET ( I D Rbn )
Cash and equivalent s
Trade receivables
I nvent ories
Fixed asset s
Ot her asset s
Tot a l a sse t s
I nt erest bearing liabilit ies
Trade payables
Ot her liabilit ies
Tot a l lia bilit ie s
Minorit y int erest
Sha r e h olde r s' e qu it y
520
711
956
2,843
2,288
7 ,3 2 8
3,194
292
1,388
4 ,8 7 5
18
2 ,4 3 6
296
797
1,146
4,442
2,601
9 ,2 9 3
4,690
330
1,386
6 ,4 0 6
21
2 ,8 6 6
799
575
937
5,337
2,551
1 0 ,2 0 8
4,887
297
1,778
6 ,9 6 2
26
3 ,2 1 9
662
858
1,264
6,144
3,074
1 2 ,0 1 2
5,687
371
2,186
8 ,2 4 4
33
3 ,7 3 6
460
981
1,418
6,765
3,640
1 3 ,2 7 5
6,287
415
2,521
9 ,2 2 2
38
4 ,0 1 4
CASH FLOW ( I D Rbn )
EBI T
Depreciat ion
Working capit al
Ot her operat ing it em s
Ope r a t in g ca sh flow
Net capit al expendit ure
Fr e e ca sh flow
Equit y raised/ ( bought )
Net borrowings
Ot her financing
N e t ca sh flow
Cash flow at beginning
Ca sh flow a t e n d
795
270
( 308)
( 214)
543
( 999)
( 455)
289
105
( 67)
( 128)
648
520
604
( 6)
( 0)
( 517)
80
( 713)
( 632)
( 5)
360
161
( 116)
520
296
782
217
629
166
1 ,7 9 4
( 1,345)
450
195
( 142)
503
296
799
1,334
285
( 619)
( 150)
850
( 1,420)
( 569)
801
( 369)
( 136)
799
662
1,427
339
( 305)
( 231)
1 ,2 3 0
( 1,370)
( 140)
600
( 663)
( 203)
662
460
20.5
6.4
20.4
16.0
12.5
6.8
70.3
1.1
2.6
109.8
43.6
32
17
63
7.4
2.4
22.0
15.4
11.3
3.7
28.3
1.1
3.8
153.3
50.5
58
27
94
16.4
5.1
22.0
15.1
11.8
7.6
75.0
0.7
2.7
127.0
47.9
32
21
66
25.6
8.0
26.7
20.2
16.3
10.9
75.0
0.8
3.2
134.5
47.3
38
23
77
24.4
7.5
25.5
19.1
15.1
10.0
75.0
0.8
4.7
145.2
47.4
38
21
73
719
( 3)
214
1
9,000
1,133
11,875
542
( 25)
296
38
7,500
3,913
13,393
462
( 15)
213
( 28)
8,000
7,326
13,400
527
14
261
22
8,923
11,326
13,000
577
9
299
14
9,538
14,424
13,000
RATI OS
ROAE ( % )
ROAA ( % )
Gross m argin ( % )
EBI TDA m argin ( % )
EBI T m argin ( % )
Net m argin ( % )
Payout rat io ( % )
Current rat io ( x)
I nt erest coverage ( x)
Net gearing ( % )
Debt s t o asset s ( % )
Debtor t urnover ( days)
Credit or t urnover ( days)
I nvent ory t urnover ( days)
M AJOR ASSUM PTI ON S
FFB product ion ( k tons)
Growt h ( % )
CPO product ion ( k t ons)
Growt h ( % )
ASP CPO ( USD/ t on)
Sugar plant at ion ( ha)
Avg. exchg. rat e (I DR/ USD)
Source: Com pany, Bahana est im at es
Gregorius Gary ( gregorius@bahana.co.id) + 6221 250 5081 ext . 3604
Ba ha na Se cu rit ies – Equ it y Re se a r ch – TBLA I J Cor por a t e Fla sh
W e e x pe ct 2 0 1 7 F r e ve nue a t
I D R8 ,1 8 1 bn, + 2 3 .8 % y- y,
on a cce le r a t e d cont r ibut ion
fr om su ga r se gm e nt
I ncr e a sin g de bt le ve ls …
… t o fina nce e x pa nsion of
it s pa lm
a nd suga r ca ne
pla nt a t ions
I m pr ove d m a r gins a s a
r e sult of r e cove r y in CPO
pr ice s
FFB pr oduct ion t o r e cove r in
2 0 1 7 - 1 8 F post La N ina
Re se a r ch : + 6 2 2 1 2 5 0 5 0 8 1
H a r r y Su
harry.su@bahana.co.id
Senior Associat e Direct or
Head of St rat egy & Research
ext 3600
direct : + 62 21 250 5735
Fa k h r u l Fu lvia n
fakhrul.fulvian@bahana.co.id
Econom ist
ext 3602
M u h a m m a d W a fi
wafi@bahana.co.id
Technical Analyst
ext 3609
Sa r a h Je ssica H u t a pe a
sarah.j essica@bahana.co.id
Research Associat e
ext 3693
H a n di H u t a Ja ya
handi@bahana.co.id
St rat egist and Product Head
ext 3610
Sa n n i Sa t r io D w i Ut om o
sanni@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
I ndust rial Est at es, Propert y
ext 3611
Gr e gor iu s Ga r y
gregorius@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Transport at ion, Plant at ions
ext 3604
Fik r i D zik r ia n Am r u lla h
fikri@bahana.co.id
Research Associat e
ext 3623
Le on a r do H e n r y Ga va za , CFA
leonardo@bahana.co.id
Senior Research Manager
Aut o, Telco, I nfrast ruct ure
ext 3608
Ar a n di Ar ia n t a r a
arandi@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Coal, Met als, Oil & Gas
ext 3619
Re n a ldy Effe n dy
renaldy@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Consum er, Healt hcare
ext 3606
M ich a e l W Se t j oa di
m ichael@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Consum er, Poult ry
ext 3620
M a r dy Or a m a h i Alh u sn a h
m ardy@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Sm all Caps
ext 3621
M a de Ayu W ij a ya t i
m ade.ayu@bahana.co.id
Research Execut ive
ext 3607
Gila n g Pu r n a m a
gilang.purnam a@bahana.co.id
Research Analyst
Telco
ext 3601
Ze fa n ya H a lim
zefanya@bahana.co.id
CA Manager
ext 3612
N ovia n t y Pe r m a t a Sa r i
noviant y@bahana.co.id
CA
ext 3618
D e a lin g Room : + 6 2 2 1 5 2 7 0 8 0 8 ( For e ign I n st it u t ion a l)
N a t a lia Su r j a dipu t r a
nat alia@bahana.co.id
Direct or of Sales &
Client Relat ionship Managem ent
ext 2500
Am e lia H u sa da
am elia@bahana.co.id
Vice President
I nst it ut ional Equit y Sales
ext 2552
Joh n M . D a sa a d
dasaad@bahana.co.id
I nst it ut ional Equit y Sales
ext 2549
H e ad Office
Graha Niaga, 19t h Floor
Jl. Jend. Sudirm an Kav. 58
Jakart a 12190
I ndonesia
Tel. 62 21 250 5081
Fax. 62 21 522 6049
+ 6 2 2 1 2 5 0 5 5 0 8 ( D om e st ic I n st it u t ion a l)
Ka r t ik a Su t a n di, CFA
kart ika.sut andi@bahana.co.id
Head of Equit y I nst it ut ional Sales
ext 2590
Alvin Gu n a w a n
alvin.gunawan@bahana.co.id
I nst it ut ional Equit y Sales
ext 2591
Ar i Sa n t osa
ari.sant osa@bahana.co.id
Sales Trader
ext 2554
ht t p: / / www .bahana.co.id
+ 6 2 3 1 5 3 5 2 7 8 8 ( Su r a ba ya Br a n ch )
Ash ish Agr a w a l
ashish@bahana.co.id
Vice President
I nst it ut ional Equit y Sales
ext 2550 / 2553
Br a m Ta a r e a
bram @bahana.co.id
I nst it ut ional Equit y Sales
ext 2524
H a n n a M a r ion da
hanna@bahana.co.id
Sales Trader
ext 2525
Yoh a n e s Adh i H a n dok o
yohanes@bahana.co.id
Manager, Surabaya Branch
ext 7250
Su w a r di W idj a j a
Suwardi@bahana.co.id
I nst it ut ional Equit y Sales
ext 2548
Adr ia n a Kosa sih
adri@bahana.co.id
Sales Execut ive
ext 2541
Su r aba ya Bra n ch
Wism a BI I , Ground Floor
Jl. Pem uda 60- 70
Surabaya 60271
I ndonesia
Tel. 62 31 535 2788
Fax. 62 31 546 1157
I m por t a n t D isclosure s a nd D iscla im er
This publicat ion is prepared by PT.Bahana Securit ies and rev iewed by Daiwa Secur it ies Gr oup I nc. and/ or it s affiliat es, and dist r ibut ed out side I ndonesia by
Daiwa Secur it ies Gr oup I nc. and/ or it s affiliat es, ex cept t o t he ext ent expressly pr ov ided herein. Cert ain copies of t his publicat ion m ay be dist r ibut ed inside
and out side of I ndonesia by PT. Bahana Securit ies in accordance w it h relevant law s and regulat ions. This publicat ion and t he cont ent s hereof are int ended
for inform at ion purposes only, and m ay be subj ect t o change w it hout furt her not ice. Any use, disclosure, dist r ibut ion, dissem inat ion, copy ing, pr int ing or
reliance on t his publicat ion for any ot her purpose w it hout our pr ior consent or appr oval is st r ict ly prohibit ed. Any rev iew does not const it ut e a full ver ificat ion
of t he publicat ion and m erely pr ov ides a m inim um check. Neit her Daiwa Secur it ies Group I nc. nor any of it s respect ive parent , holding, subsidiar ies or
affiliat es, nor any of it s respect iv e direct ors, officers, servant s and em ployees, represent nor warrant t he accuracy or com plet eness of t he infor m at ion
cont ained herein or as t o t he ex ist ence of ot her fact s which m ight be significant , and w ill not accept any responsibilit y or liabilit y what soever for any use of or
reliance upon t his publicat ion or any of t he cont ent s hereof. Neit her t his publicat ion, nor any cont ent hereof, const it ut e, or are t o be const rued as, an offer or
solicit at ion of an offer t o buy or sell any of t he secur it ies or invest m ent s m ent ioned herein in any count ry or j urisdict ion nor, unless expressly prov ided, any
recom m endat ion or invest m ent opinion or adv ice. Any v iew , recom m endat ion, opinion or adv ice expressed in t his publicat ion const it ut es t he v iew s of t he
analyst ( s) nam ed herein and does not necessar ily reflect t hose of Daiwa Securit ies Gr oup I nc. and/ or it s affiliat es nor any of it s respect ive direct ors, officers,
servant s and em ployees except w here t he publicat ion st at es ot herw ise. This research report is not t o be relied upon by any person in m ak ing any invest m ent
decision or ot her w ise adv ising w it h respect t o, or dealing in, t he securit ies m ent ioned, as it does not t ake int o account t he specific inv est m ent obj ect ives,
financial sit uat ion and part icular needs of any person.
Neit her Daiwa Secur it ies Group I nc. nor any of it s affiliat es is licensed t o undert ake any business w it hin t he Republic of I ndonesia. Any display of any t rade
nam e or logo of t he Daiwa Securit ies Group I nc. on t his publicat ion shall not be deem ed t o be an undert ak ing of any business w it hin t he Republic of
I ndonesia.
Daiwa Securit ies Gr oup I nc., it s subsidiar ies or affiliat es, or it s or t heir respect ive direct ors, officers and em ployees from t im e t o t im e m ay have t rades as
principals, or have posit ions in, or have ot her int erest s in t he securit ies of t he com pany under research including m arket m ak ing act iv it ies, derivat ives in
respect of such secur it ies or m ay have also perform ed invest m ent bank ing and ot her serv ices for t he issuer of such secur it ies. The follow ing are addit ional
disclosures.
Ownership of Secur it ies
For “ Ownership of Secur it ies” infor m at ion, please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure link at ht t ps: / / daiwa3. bluem at rix. com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion.
I nvest m ent Bank ing Relat ionship
For “ I nvest m ent Bank ing Relat ionship” , please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure link at ht t ps: / / daiwa3.bluem at rix.com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion.
Ja pa n
Daiwa Secur it ies Co. Lt d. and Daiwa Secur it ies Group I nc.
Daiwa Secur it ies Co. Lt d. is a subsidiar y of Daiw a Secur it ies Group I nc.
I nvest m ent Bank ing Relat ionship
Wit hin t he preceding 12 m ont hs, The subsidiaries and/ or affiliat es of Daiwa Securit ies Group I nc. * has lead- m anaged public offerings and/ or secondary offerings
(excluding st raight bonds) of t he securit ies of t he following com panies: China Reinsurance Group Corporat ion (1508 HK).
* Subsidiar ies of Daiwa Secur it ies Group I nc. for t he purposes of t his sect ion shall m ean any one or m ore of:
• Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s Hong Kong Lim it ed ( 大和資本市場香港有限公司)
• Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s Singapore Lim it ed
• Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s Aust ralia Lim it ed
• Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s I ndia Pr ivat e Lim it ed
• Daiwa- Cat hay Capit al Market s Co. , Lt d.
• Daiwa Secur it ies Capit al Market s Korea Co., Lt d
Disclosure of I nt erest of Bahana Securit ies
I nvest m ent Bank ing Relat ionship
Wit hin t he preceding 12 m ont hs, Bahana Securit ies has lead- m anaged public offer ings and/ or secondary offer ings ( ex cluding st raight bonds) of t he secur it ies
of t he follow ing com panies: Anabat ic Technologies Tbk PT ( ATI C I J) ; Aneka Tam bang Persero Tbk PT ( ANTM I J) ; PT Telek om unikasi I ndonesia ( Persero) Tbk
( TLKM I J) .
H ong Kong
This research is dist r ibut ed in Hong Kong by Daiwa Capit al Market s Hong Kong Lim it ed ( 大和資本市場香港有限公司) ( “ DHK” ) which is r egulat ed by t he Hong
Kong Secur it ies and Fut ures Com m ission. Recipient s of t his research in Hong Kong m ay cont act DHK in respect of any m at t er ar ising from or in connect ion
w it h t his research.
Relevant Relat ionship ( DHK)
DHK m ay from t im e t o t im e have an indiv idual em ployed by or associat ed w it h it serves as an officer of any of t he com panies under it s research coverage.
Singa por e
This resear ch is dist r ibut ed in Singapore by Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s Singapore Lim it ed and it m ay only be dist r ibut ed in Singapore t o accredit ed invest ors,
expert invest ors and inst it ut ional invest ors as defined in t he Financial Adv isers Regulat ions and t he Securit ies and Fut ures Act ( Chapt er 289) , as am ended
from t im e t o t im e. By v irt ue of dist ribut ion t o t hese cat egory of inv est ors, Daiwa Capit al Market s Singapore Lim it ed and it s represent at ives are not required
t o com ply w it h Sect ion 36 of t he Financial Adv isers Act ( Chapt er 110) ( Sect ion 36 relat es t o disclosure of Daiwa Capit al Market s Singapore Lim it ed’s int erest
and/ or it s represent at ive’s int erest in secur it ies) . Recipient s of t his r esearch in Singapore m ay cont act Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s Singapore Lim it ed in respect of
any m at t er ar ising from or in connect ion w it h t he research.
Aust r a lia
This research is dist r ibut ed in Aust ralia by Daiwa Capit al Market s Aust ralia Lim it ed and it m ay only be dist r ibut ed in Aust ralia t o wholesale invest ors w it hin
t he m eaning of t he Corporat ions Act . Recipient s of t his research in Aust ralia m ay cont act Daiwa Capit al Market s St ock brok ing Lim it ed in respect of any
m at t er ar ising from or in connect ion w it h t he research.
I ndia
This research is dist r ibut ed in I ndia t o I nst it ut ional Client s only by Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s I ndia Pr ivat e Lim it ed ( Daiwa I ndia) which is an int erm ediar y
regist ered w it h Secur it ies & Exchange Board of I ndia as a St ock Broker, Merchant Bank and Research Analy st . Daiwa I ndia, it s Research Analyst and t heir
fam ily m em bers and it s associat es do not have any financial int erest save as disclosed or ot her undisclosed m at er ial conflict of int erest in t he secur it ies or
derivat ives of any com panies under coverage. Daiwa I ndia and it s associat es, m ay have received com pensat ion for any product s ot her t han I nvest m ent
Banking ( as disclosed) or br okerage serv ices fr om t he subj ect com pany in t his report or fr om any t hird part y during t he past 12 m ont hs. Daiwa I ndia and it s
associat es m ay have debt holdings in t he subj ect com pany. For inform at ion on ownership of equit y, please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure Link at
htt ps: / / daiwa3.bluematrix.com / sellside/ Disclosures.action.
There is no m at er ial disciplinar y act ion against Daiwa I ndia by any regulat or y aut hor it y im pact ing equit y research analy sis act iv it ies as of t he dat e of t his
report .
Associat es of Daiwa I ndia, regist ered w it h I ndian regulat or s, include Daiwa Capit al Market s Singapor e Lim it ed and Daiwa Port folio Adv isory ( I ndia) Pr ivat e
Lim it ed.
Ta iw a n
This research is dist r ibut ed in Taiwan by Daiwa- Cat hay Capit al Mar ket s Co., Lt d and it m ay only be dist r ibut ed in Taiwan t o inst it ut ional invest ors or specific
invest ors who have signed recom m endat ion cont ract s w it h Daiwa- Cat hay Capit al Mar ket s Co., Lt d in accordance w it h t he Operat ional Regulat ions Governing
Securit ies Fir m s Recom m ending Trades in Securit ies t o Cust om ers. Recipient s of t his research in Taiw an m ay cont act Daiwa- Cat hay Capit al Mar ket s Co., Lt d
in respect of any m at t er ar ising fr om or in connect ion w it h t he research.
Philippine s
This research is dist r ibut ed in t he Philippines by DBP- Daiwa Capit al Market s Philippines, I nc. which is r egulat ed by t he Philippines Securit ies and Exchange
Com m ission and t he Philippines St ock Ex change, I nc. Recipient s of t his research in t he Philippines m ay cont act DBP- Daiw a Capit al Market s Philippines, I nc.
in respect of any m at t er ar ising fr om or in connect ion w it h t he research. DBP- Daiwa Capit al Market s Philippines, I nc. recom m ends t hat invest ors
independent ly assess, w it h a pr ofessional adv isor , t he specific financial risk s as well as t he legal, regulat ory, t ax, account ing, and ot her consequences of a
proposed t ransact ion. DBP- Daiw a Capit al Market s Philippines, I nc. m ay have posit ions or m ay be m at erially int erest ed in t he secur it ies in any of t he m arket s
m ent ioned in t he publicat ion or m ay have perform ed ot her serv ices for t he issuers of such secur it ies.
For relevant secur it ies and t rading rules please v isit SEC and PSE link at h t t p: / / w w w . sec. gov . ph / ir r / Am en dedI RRf in alv er sion . pdf an d
h t t p: / / w w w . pse. com . ph / respect ively.
Unit e d Kingdom
This research report is produced by Daiwa Secur it ies Co. Lt d. and/ or it s affiliat es and is dist r ibut ed in t he European Union, I celand, Liecht enst ein, Nor way
and Sw it zer land. Daiwa Capit al Market s Europe Lim it ed is aut hor ised and regulat ed by The Financial Conduct Aut hor it y ( “ FCA” ) and is a m em ber of t he
London St ock Ex change and Eurex. This publicat ion is int ended for invest ors who are not Ret ail Client s in t he Unit ed Kingdom w it hin t he m eaning of t he
Rules of t he FCA and should not t herefore be dist ribut ed t o such Ret ail Client s in t he Unit ed Kingdom . Should you ent er int o invest m ent business w it h Daiwa
Capit al Market s Europe’s affiliat es out side t he Unit ed Kingdom , w e are obliged t o adv ise t hat t he prot ect ion afforded by t he Unit ed Kingdom regulat or y
syst em m ay not apply ; in part icular, t he benefit s of t he Financial Services Com pensat ion Schem e m ay not be available.
Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s Europe Lim it ed has in place organisat ional arrangem ent s for t he prevent ion and av oidance of conflict s of int erest . Our conflict
m anagem ent policy is available at h t t p: / / w w w . u k . daiw acm . com / abou t - u s/ cor por at e- gov er n an ce- r egu lat or y .
Ge r m a ny
This docum ent is dist r ibut ed in Germ any by Daiwa Capit al Market s Europe Lim it ed, Nieder lassung Frankfurt which is regulat ed by BaFin ( Bundesanst alt fuer
Finanzdienst leist ungsaufsicht ) for t he conduct of business in Germ any.
Ba hr a in
This research m at er ial is dist ribut ed by Daiw a Capit al Market s Europe Lim it ed, Bahrain Branch, r egulat ed by The Cent ral Bank of Bahrain and holds
I nvest m ent Business Fir m – Cat egory 2 license and hav ing it s official place of business at t he Bahrain Wor ld Trade Cent re, Sout h Tower, 7t h floor, P.O. Box
30069, Manam a, Kingdom of Bahr ain. Tel No. + 973 17534452 Fax No. + 973 535113
This m at er ial is prov ided as a reference for m ak ing invest m ent decisions and is not int ended t o be a solicit at ion for invest m ent . I nvest m ent decisions should
be m ade at your own discret ion and risk. Accor dingly, no represent at ion or w arrant y, ex press or im plied, is m ade as t o and no reliance should be placed on
t he fairness, accuracy, com plet eness or correct ness of t he infor m at ion and opinions cont ained in t his docum ent , Cont ent herein is based on infor m at ion
available at t he t im e t he research m at erial was prepared and m ay be am ended or ot herw ise changed in t he fut ure w it hout not ice. All inform at ion is int ended
for t he pr ivat e use of t he person t o whom it is prov ided w it hout any liabilit y what soever on t he part of Daiwa Capit al Market s Europe Lim it ed, Bahrain
Branch, any associat ed com pany or t he em ployees t hereof. I f you are in doubt about t he suit abilit y of t he product or t he research m at erial it self, please
consult y our own financial adv iser. Daiwa Capit al Market s Europe Lim it ed, Bahrain Branch ret ains all r ight s relat ed t o t he cont ent of t his m at er ial, which m ay
not be redist r ibut ed or ot herw ise t ransm it t ed w it hout pr ior consent .
Unit e d St a t e s
This report is dist r ibut ed in t he U. S. by Daiwa Capit al Mar ket s Am erica I nc. ( DCMA) . I t m ay not be accurat e or com plet e and should not be relied upon
as such. I t reflect s t he preparer’s v iews at t he t im e of it s preparat ion, but m ay not reflect event s occurring aft er it s preparat ion; nor does it reflect
PT.Bahana Secur it ies’ or DCMA’s v iews at any t im e. Neit her PT.Bahana Securit ies, DCMA nor t he preparer has any obligat ion t o updat e t his report
or t o cont inue t o prepare research on t his subj ect . This report is not an offer t o sell or t he solicit at ion of any offer t o buy secur it ies. Unless t his report
says ot her w ise, any recom m endat ion it m akes is r isk y and appropr iat e only for sophist icat ed speculat iv e invest or s able t o incur significant losses.
Readers should consult t heir financial adv isors t o det erm ine whet her any such recom m endat ion is consist ent w it h t heir own invest m ent obj ect ives,
financial sit uat ion and needs. This report does not recom m end t o U.S. recipient s t he use of any of PT.Bahana Securit ies’ or DCMA’s non- U.S.
affiliat es t o effect t rades in any securit y and is not supplied w it h any underst anding t hat U.S. recipient s of t his report w ill direct com m ission business t o
such non- U.S. ent it ies. Unless applicable law perm it s ot her w ise, non- U.S. cust om ers w ishing t o effect a t ransact ion in any secur it ies referenced in t his
m at erial should cont act a Daiwa ent it y in t heir local j ur isdict ion. Most count r ies t hroughout t he wor ld have t heir own law s regulat ing t he t ypes of
securit ies and ot her invest m ent pr oduct s which m ay be offered t o t heir resident s, as well as a process for doing so. As a result , t he secur it ies
discussed in t his report m ay not be eligible for sales in som e j ur isdict ions. Cust om ers w ishing t o obt ain furt her inform at ion about t his report should
cont act DCMA: Daiwa Capit al Mark et s Am er ica I nc., Financial Square, 32 Old Slip, New Yor k, New Yor k 10005 ( Tel no. 212- 612- 7000) .
Ow ne r ship of Se cur it ie s
For “ Ownership of Secur it ies” infor m at ion please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure Link at ht t ps: / / daiwa3. bluem at r ix. com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion .
I nve st m e n t Ba nk ing Re la t ionships
For “ I nvest m ent Bank ing Relat ionships” please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure link at ht t ps: / / daiwa3.bluem at rix.com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion.
D CM A M a r k e t M a k ing
For “ DCMA Market Mak ing” please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure link at ht t ps: / / daiwa3.bluem at rix. com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion.
Re se a r ch Ana ly st Con flict s
For updat es on “ Research Analyst Conflict s” please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure link at ht t ps: / / daiwa3.bluem at rix. com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion. The
principal research analyst s who pr epared t his report have no financial int erest in secur it ies of t he issuers covered in t he report , are not ( nor are any
m em bers of t heir household) an officer, direct or or adv isory board m em ber of t he issuer( s) covered in t he report , and are not aware of any m at erial
relevant conflict of int erest involv ing t he analy st or DCMA, and did not receive any com pensat ion from t he issuer dur ing t he past 12 m ont hs except as
not ed: no except ions.
Re se a r ch Ana ly st Ce r t ifica t ion
For updat es on “ Research Analyst Cert ificat ion” and “ Rat ing Sy st em ” please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure link at
ht t ps: / / daiwa3.bluem at rix.com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion. The v iews about any and all of t he subj ect securit ies and issuers expressed in t his
Research Report accurat ely reflect t he personal v iews of t he research analyst ( s) prim ar ily responsible for t his report ( or t he v iew s of t he fir m
producing t he report if no indiv idual analyst s[ s] is nam ed on t he report ) ; and no part of t he com pensat ion of such analyst ( s) ( or no part of t he
com pensat ion of t he fir m if no indiv idual analyst [ s) ] is nam ed on t he report ) was, is, or w ill be direct ly or indirect ly relat ed t o t he specific
recom m endat ions or v iews cont ained in t his Research Report .
For st ock s a nd se ct or s in I ndone sia cove r e d by Ba ha na Se cur it ie s, t he follow ing rat ing sy st em is in effect :
St ock rat ings are based on absolut e upside or downside, which is t he difference bet ween t he t arget pr ice and t he current m ar ket pr ice. Unless ot her w ise
specified, t hese rat ings are set w it h a 12- m ont h hor izon. I t is possible t hat fut ure pr ice volat ilit y m ay cause a t em porary m ism at ch bet w een upside/ downside
for a st ock based on t he m ar ket pr ice and t he form al rat ing.
" Buy" : t he price of t he secur it y is expect ed t o increase by 10% or m ore.
" Hold" : t he pr ice of t he secur it y is expect ed t o range fr om an increase of less t han 10% t o a decline of less t han 5% .
" Reduce" : t he pr ice of t he secur it y is expect ed t o decline by 5% or m ore.
Sect or rat ings are based on fundam ent als for t he sect or as a whole. Hence, a sect or m ay be rat ed “ Overweight ” even t hough it s const it uent st ock s are all
rat ed “ Reduce” ; and a sect or m ay be rat ed “ Underweight ” even t hough it s const it uent st ocks are all rat ed “ Buy” .
“ Overweight ” : posit ive fundam ent als for t he sect or.
“ Neut ral” : neit her posit ive nor negat ive fundam ent als for t he sect or.
“ Underweight ” : negat ive fundam ent als for t he sect or.
Ownership of Secur it ies
For “ Ownership of Secur it ies” infor m at ion, please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure Link at ht t ps: / / daiw a3.bluem at rix. com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion .
I nvest m ent Bank ing Relat ionships
For “ I nvest m ent Bank ing Relat ionship” , please v isit BlueMat r ix disclosure Link at ht t ps: / / daiwa3.bluem at rix .com / sellside/ Disclosures.act ion .
Relevant Relat ionships ( Bahana Securit ies)
Bahana Securit ies m ay from t im e t o t im e have an indiv idual em ploy ed by or associat ed w it h it serves as an officer of any of t he com panies under it s research
coverage.
Bahana Securit ies m arket m ak ing
Bahana Securit ies m ay fr om t im e t o t im e m ake a m arket in secur it ies covered by t his research.
Addit iona l in for m a t ion m a y be a va ila ble upon r e que st .
Ja pa n - a ddit iona l not ifica t ion it e m s pur sua nt t o Ar t icle 3 7 of t he Fina ncia l I n st r u m e n t s a nd Ex cha nge La w
( This Not ificat ion is only applicable where report is dist ribut ed by Daiwa Secur it ies Co. Lt d.)
I f y ou decide t o ent er int o a business arrangem ent w it h us based on t he inform at ion descr ibed in m at erials present ed along w it h t his docum ent , we ask you
t o pay close at t ent ion t o t he follow ing it em s.
• I n addit ion t o t he purchase pr ice of a financial inst rum ent , we w ill collect a t rading com m ission* for each t ransact ion as agreed beforehand w it h you. Since
com m issions m ay be included in t he purchase pr ice or m ay not be charged for cert ain t ransact ions, w e recom m end t hat you confirm t he com m ission for
each t ransact ion.
• I n som e cases, we m ay also charge a m ax im um of ¥ 2 m illion ( including t ax) per year as a st anding proxy fee for our deposit of y our securit ies, if you are
a non- resident of Japan.
• For derivat ive and m ar gin t ransact ions et c., we m ay require collat eral or m argin requirem ent s in accor dance w it h an agreem ent m ade beforehand w it h
you. Ordinar ily in such cases, t he am ount of t he t ransact ion w ill be in excess of t he required collat eral or m argin requirem ent s.
• There is a r isk t hat you w ill incur losses on y our t ransact ions due t o changes in t he m arket pr ice of financial inst rum ent s based on fluct uat ions in int erest
rat es, exchange rat es, st ock pr ices, real est at e pr ices, com m odit y prices, and ot hers. I n addit ion, depending on t he cont ent of t he t ransact ion, t he loss
could exceed t he am ount of t he collat eral or m argin requirem ent s.
• There m ay be a difference bet ween bid pr ice et c. and ask pr ice et c. of OTC der ivat ives handled by us.
• Before engaging in any t rading, please t horoughly confirm account ing and t ax t reat m ent s regarding y our t rading in financial inst rum ent s w it h such expert s
as cert ified public account ant s.
* The am ount of t he t rading com m ission cannot be st at ed here in advance because it w ill be det erm ined bet ween our com pany and you based on current
m arket condit ions and t he cont ent of each t ransact ion et c.
When m ak ing an act ual t ransact ion, please be sure t o carefully read t he m at er ials present ed t o y ou pr ior t o t he execut ion of agreem ent , and t o t ake
responsibilit y for y our own decisions regarding t he signing of t he agr eem ent w it h us.
Corporat e Nam e:
Mem berships:
Daiwa Secur it ies Co. Lt d.
Financial inst rum ent s fir m : chief of Kant o Local Finance Bureau ( Kin- sho) No.108
Japan Secur it ies Dealers Associat ion, Financial Fut ures Associat ion of Japan
Japan Secur it ies I nvest m ent Adv isers Associat ion
Type I I Financial I nst rum ent s Firm s Associat ion