Presentation: Basic science and facts of climate change

Climate
Change
Training

Basic science and facts of climate
change – past, present and future

www.ifrc.org
Saving lives, changing minds.
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Climate Change

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

”More and worse floods”
”Rains no longer normal –
difficult to know when to
plant”
”Our paddy fields get eaten
away by the sea”

”... so our children have to
move away”
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Weather or climate?
Weather: Short Timescales
“hours, days”

Will I need an
umbrella today?
Is it raining? What
is the weather?

Climate: Long Timescales
“average over the past 30 years”

I’m going to Nairobi
in May – is that
normally the rainy
season there?

What is the
climate?

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

IPCC – the ‘key reference’
on climate change
Main findings

IPCC Fifth
Assessment
Report, 2013

 Climate change is already happening
 It is mostly caused by man
 It will continue
 The rate of change is alarming
 Extreme weather is getting more frequent
 It is urgent to stop further warming

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Three Questions

WHAT
DOES CC
MEAN FOR
THE
HUMANITA
RIAN
SECTOR
Q3.

WHAT
DOES IT
MEAN?
Q2.

Q1.

WHY IS
IT
GETTING
WARMER
?

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

First Question: Why is it getting warmer?
Answer: The rapid global warming of the past 100 years is caused
mostly by human activity, mainly:
Burning fossil fuels (e.g. coal, oil, natural gas) at
unprecedented rates, sending “greenhouse gases” into
the atmosphere

Widespread deforestation (trees contain a lot of
carbon, and when burnt CO2 is released )

Changing agricultural and land-use practices
(agriculture releases other GHGs, CH4 and NO2)

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

First question: Why is it getting warmer?
Greenhouse gases are acting as a blanket around the
earth

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Today CO2 is higher than it’s been for
hundreds of thousands of years
http://400.350.org/

Does anyone know how
many ppm of CO2 we have
in the atmosphere today?

400
ppm

That’s 120 ppm higher than

the max for 800,000+ yrs
… and the difference
between an ice age and a
warm period is just 100 ppm

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Second Question: Along with the GHG the earth
is getting warmer – what does that mean?
Rising temperatures, heat waves
Sea level rise
Scientists very sure

Melting ice
Ocean acidification
Changing rainfall patterns
Changes in extreme events

Less clear, and
regional differences

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Scientist warnings are clear:
We should avoid more than
a 2°Celsius temperature
rise in the coming century
A 2012 World Bank report
summarizes the potential
effects of a 4°warmer
world: it’s urgent to limit
GHG emissions
The more we limit GHG
emissions now, the less
need for adaption to a
future wilder weather
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Warming will continue, but how much is our
choice
In the next few decades,
temperatures will continue to
rise, even if we almost
completely stop emissions of
GHGs today (blue line)
This is because GHGs,
especially CO2, stay in the
atmosphere for a long time
Therefore, we have further
climate change “in the pipeline”
because of the emissions
already in the atmosphere

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Warming will continue, but how much is our
choice
But if, and only if, we cut the

global amount of GHG
emissions quickly, we may
avoid escalating warming in
the second half of this century
(the red line)
If we act now to reduce global
emissions, it is still possible to
keep changes within a
“manageable range” for our
children

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

… temperature is not
all that’s changing…
When the ocean, land and air get warmer,
things change in the climate system…

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Climate variability and change
New record highs

Long term average

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Shift in season and intensity

Sumatra & Java - compared to 1961-90:
Onset of the wet season is now 10 - 20 days later
Onset of the dry season is now 10 - 60 days earlier
Based on Naylor et al. 2007

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Huge annual variability is normal

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Climate change projections: general – NOT zoom in

• Rough regional forecasts – will not be much better
• Act on that basis

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Climate change projections: Asia
• Increased riverine, coastal and urban
flooding leading to widespread damage
to infrastructure, livelihoods and
settlements (M)

• Increased risk of drought-related water
and food shortage causing malnutrition
(H)

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– Impacts
Climate–change
science and impacts

22

Source: IPCC, 2007

• Increased risk of heat-related mortality
(H)

Some things are certain:
… in addition to sea level rise – what more?

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

One thing is for sure:
the future will be
different from the past

Photo: NASA

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

More certainty about climate change

More uncertainty about its manifestations

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Something’s changing - are you prepared?

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Third Question: What does climate change mean
for the humanitarian sector?

Trends we have observed…
 Weather related disasters doubled
over the past 2 decades
 Increase in small- and medium-scale
disasters

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Observed Changes in Disaster Patterns
 Weather related disasters doubled over the past 2 decades
 Increase small- and medium-scale disasters
 More surprises/uncertainties

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

IMPACTS

CLIMATE

Vulnerability

SOCIOECONOMIC
PROCESSES
Socioeconomic
Pathways

Natural
Variability

Hazards

RISK

Anthropogenic
Climate Change

Exposure

EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change

Adaptation and
Mitigation
Actions
Governance

Risks = Hazards x Vulnerability x Exposure


The number of hazards is
increasing



More people are exposed
to extreme events



The vulnerability of people
and assets is increasing

= Risks are increasing

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

A range of effects

 Changes in frequency and/or intensity of
hazards
 Changes in geographical / seasonal extent of
hazards
 Climate trends (temperature, rainfall, sea level
rise) impacting livelihoods etc.
 Trends becoming shocks – lack of knowledge to
cope
IFRC

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Special report on
extreme events and disasters, a
summary for policy makers

IPCC Summary for Policy makers, 2011

Key messages:
 Disaster risk increases (regardless of climate change)
 Extreme events are more frequent and more intense, due to climate change
 Stronger emphasis on anticipation and risk reduction needed
 Better information available
32

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Potential impact: Floods

 Difficult to measure the frequency and intensity of floods, but
generally there has been an increasing trend
 Changes in rainfall patterns and precipitation intensity could
put more people at risk from flooding
Photo: IFRC, Pakistan floods 2010,
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Potential impact: Coastal erosion, coastal flooding
and salt water intrusion

Photo: IFRC, Viet Nam coastal dike
damages
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Potential impact: Drought

Photo: Jacob
Dall
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Possible impact: increasing food insecurity

hoto: Tamara Leigh/IFRC-Climate Centre)
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Possible impact: Changing disease patterns

(Photo: Nancy Okwengu/IFRC-Climate Centr
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Potential impact: Melting ice
1978

2002

Source: NASA – UNDP

Source: Barnett et al. (2005)

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Potential impacts: Oceanic changes


Sea levels are rising – at a
faster rate

Sea level rise

NOW

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Potential impacts: Oceanic changes
Large scale degradation and/or loss of
coastal and marine ecosystems




the oceans are becoming more acidic
sea surface temperatures are increasing

... and fish stocks
decline, eroding
livelihoods for millions
of people

Ocean acidification damages
coral reefs – reducing their
coastal protection effects

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Potential impact: tropical cyclones impacts
 Possibly an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclone
activity (hurricanes/typhoons), coupled with higher storm
surges due to sea level rise
  economic/human losses are expected to increase

IFRC

Source: NOAA
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Climate change fingerprint in complex crises
• increased demand
• failed harvests
• less land for agriculture (a.o. urbanisation)
• biofuels
• distorded markets (ban on exports)
• price speculations

Climate
change
related

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Humanitarian concern
• Will vulnerable people worldwide have a voice in
geoengineering decisions?
• Will there be extra funding for humanitarian work in a
geoengineered future?

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Key Messages








Climate Change is already happening and will continue
to affect us especially the most vulnerable groups
Rate of change is alarming and mostly caused by men
CC brings another layer of risk
R = Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure
We already see a lot of observed changes in disaster
patterns
Urgent action is a must
We need to make choices under periods of uncertainty

www.ifrc.org
Saving lives, changing minds.
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

From IFRC President Konoe
issued at the release of the IPCC AR5 WGII

This is the strong confirmation that risks have
been rising in recent decades
The second message emerging from the report is more positive –

Immense capacities exist to addressing risks –
capacities that can be even more effective when
applied with greater awareness and investment ahead
of potential problems
The third message of the report is about our choices for the future –

Past greenhouse gas emissions have already
committed us to rising risks for several decades to
come. This report shows that we can largely handle
those now-inevitable changes. For the second half of
the century, however, we face a bigger choice – one
that needs to be made now.
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts

Thank you!
Further information
ipcc.ch
climatecentre.org
ifrc.org

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a – Climate change science and impacts