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CHAPTER V CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
This chapter explores all the conclusion of the research study, the managerial implications, research limitation and also gives the suggestion for
further research. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of US macroeconomic news announcements which are Consumer Price Index or CPI,
Unemployment Situation, Institute for Supply Management ISM: Manufacturing, and Producer Price Index PPI to the nine major emerging market
China, India, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and to four developed market Austrralia, Singapore, Hongkong, Japan in Asia Pacific
using GARCH method on EViews 7.0. The data is taken monthly from period January 2000 until December 2011.
A. Conclusions
The purpose of this research is to investigate US macroeconomics news
announcements which are Consumer Price Index or CPI, Employment Situation, Institute
for Supply Management ISM: Manufacturing, and Producer Price Index PPI affecting
four developed countries Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan and nine major of
the emerging countries China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines,
Korea, Taiwan and Thailand in Asia-Pacific using
GARCH model by EViews 7.0.
From the result of this research study on forecasting the effect of the US macroeconomic news to the four developed countries and nine
major emerging market in Asia-Pacific, the conclusion that can be pointed out as following:
1. Data that used in this research study is data time series. It is taken from index of each country. For emerging countries,
56 China SSE Composite Index, India BSESN, Indonesia
JKSE, Malaysia KLSE, Pakistan KSE, Philippines PSEI.PS, Korea KS11, Taiwan TWII, Thailand FTSE
and for developed countries, Australia AORD, Hongkong HSI, Singapore STI, and Japan N225. Although data
time series but these are not stationary. The data should processed first to know if the data already stationary or not.
2. To find and select the best model it uses autocorrelogram test, homokedasticity test, histogram-normality test, and
ARCH LM-test or heterokedasticity. 3. Without any research, can be known that US is the powerful
country that has impact to other countries in the world. Many countries still concern with performance of US as the
benchmark of what they do, especially with the US macroeconomic news announcement.
4. For the result of this research study, we can see that not the entire US macroeconomic news announcement affecting the
performance in the Asia-Pacific countries but, each country has at least one news which affecting their performance. For
emerging countries, US macroeconomic news announcement affecting China, Taiwan, Thailand, India, and
Korea in Consumer Price Index or CPI. Indonesia and Pakistan are affecting by the Producer Price Index or PPI.
Malaysia and Philippines are affecting by the Unemployment report. For developed countries, US
macroeconomic news announcement affecting Australia, Hongkong, and Japan in Consumer Price Index and
affecting Singapore in the Producer Price Index or PPI. 5. For recent years, none of the countries in the Asia-Pacific
that get effect by ISM Manufacturing report. In general, this
57 study show that although previous years US ever
experienced a decline in their economics but US still become a benchmark for countries in the Asia-Pacific
whether for emerging or developed countries.
B. Managerial Implication
