Some Controversies

7.3 Some Controversies

Consequently, many of the above-mentioned advanced transport systems appear controversial regarding their contribution to the overall medium- to long-term sustainability of the entire transport sector. This controversy becomes more obvious after considering their technical productivity, the energy/fuel consumption and related emissions of GHG, and safety (i.e., traffic incidents and accidents).

7.3.1 Technical Productivity

The evidence so far indicates that the above-mentioned advanced transport sys- tems are characterized by gradually increasing technical productivity partially thanks to the increasing size/weight/capacity of transport means/vehicles and their number in the fleet to serve growing demand, and primarily thanks to increasing technical and operating speed(s).

7.3.1.1 Vehicle Size The size/capacity/weight of particular transport means/vehicles operated by dif-

ferent transport modes has seemingly reached constructive/design limits. But is that really the case? Where are these limits? Are they contained in the sustain- ability and durability of the vehicle’s structure—design and material? Maybe they lie in constraints in the existing transport infrastructure (roads, railway lines,

7.3 Some Controversies 395 inland waterways, airports, and river/sea ports) requiring substantial adjustment in

order to enable efficient, effective, and safe maneuvering of these increasingly larger transport means/vehicles? Is the limit stricter regulation constraining the absolute impacts of these vehicles/means and the entire transport sector on the environment and society? Or is this the overall shortage of land for expansion of infrastructure in combination with an increasing shortage of (and more expensive) currently used energy/fuels? Or perhaps a combination of all the above-mentioned factors?

What is the general influence of these larger transport means/vehicles on the transport processes and related effects and impacts? In general, the increased size/weight/capacity of transport means/vehicles implies less frequent services to satisfy a given volume of demand on a given route(s), and on the entire network(s). Such less frequent services contribute to increasing schedule delays of passengers at their origins and the inventory cost of freight shipments at both ends of the given supply chain. In addition, such more sizeable vehicles are designed to operate on medium to long distances, which in combination with the longer loading and unloading (ground handling time) gen- erally require greater fleets to serve the given volumes of passenger and freight demand during a given period of time. On the other hand, the inherently lower service frequencies require a smaller number of these larger vehicles. At the same time, the investment and operating costs of these vehicles per service are higher, while the unit costs are lower compared to their smaller counterparts thanks to economies of scale and density. These larger vehicles also consume more energy/ fuel per service, which depending on the type and primary sources of energy/fuel production generally create higher total emissions of GHG. However, in relative terms, these emissions can be lower than those of their smaller counterparts. The same applies to the local noise created by these vehicles.

7.3.1.2 Vehicle Speed The dynamism of raising the technical and operating speed of the commercialized

and the non-commercialized advanced transport systems is different. The former is an evolutionary gradual process, while the latter will likely be a revolutionary process. Take for example the case of evolutionary/gradual increase in the speed of the urban public passenger transport achieved through operational advancements in the BRT system. High-speed tilting passenger train(s), HSR (High-Speed Rail) and its modification Super HSR, and TRM are all examples of gradually increasing the speed by technical/technological modifications. In urban and suburban freight transport, a gradual increase in the freight/goods delivery speed can be achieved by as yet non-commercialized UFT systems. But, again, how big should such an increase be combined with the other advantages to justify the generally high investment cost in UFT infrastructure? In case of the ETT system and advanced STA as yet non-commercialized future systems, the increase in speed will likely be revolutionary. At the EET system, this implies an application of TRM technology

396 7 Advanced Transport Systems: Contribution to Sustainability through a vacuum tube enabling a very high (supersonic) operational speed. In

case of STA, this implies development of a new supersonic configuration expected to be much faster, efficient, effective, safe, and particularly less noisy than the previous retired models—the Anglo-French Concorde and the Soviet Union’s TU144.

Higher technical and operating speeds generally contribute to shortening the travel time and related costs for the users/passengers and freight shipments. In parallel, they enable shorter turnaround times, thus requiring engagement of smaller fleets to serve given volumes of demand during a given period of time. This generally diminishes the investment, maintenance, and operational costs of the transport means/vehicles. However, higher speeds require higher energy/fuel consumption, which contributes to increasing the cost per service. Depending on the type of primary sources for producing the energy/fuel, such increased energy/ fuel consumption generates higher emissions of GHG. The noise level generated by the vehicles passing-by at higher speeds is generally also higher. The question of the maximum possible technical and operation speed of the above-mentioned systems also arises. Where are the technical/technological barriers and where are the commercial constraints? The latter implies who actually needs very high (supersonic) speeds—to what extent are such speeds beneficial and when do they become counterproductive? Do savings of the users’ time justify setting up usually very expensive infrastructure, high energy/fuel consumption and related emissions of GHG, and increase in the local (and global) noise? Large advanced container ships can be considered as a case of such controversy: by reducing operating speeds and consequently fuel consumption, these ships can improve their eco- nomic and environmental performances, but only on account of an increased fleet size and longer delivery time of the freight/goods shipments, which need to be acceptable for both operators and users/customers.

7.3.2 Energy/Fuel Consumption and Emissions of GHG

The environmental performances of particular advanced transport systems are expected to contribute to sustainability through reducing energy/fuel consumption and related emissions of GHG (Green House Gases). These performances are generally influenced by the vehicle size/weight/capacity, operating speed, the scale of operations (size of the network and the service frequency), and type of the energy/fuel used. As mentioned above, the larger size, speed, and scale of oper- ations by using a given fuel require a greater total fuel consumption, which con- sequently generates greater related emissions of GHG, and vice versa. Liquid fuels as derivatives of nonrenewable primary sources such as crude and LNG (Liquid

Natural Gas), electric energy, and LH 2 obtained from different nonrenewable and renewable primary sources are used by these systems. While crude oil and LNG

7.3 Some Controversies 397 will seemingly remain the primary source of fuels used by large advanced con-

tainer ships and aircraft, road mega trucks, the BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) System system, and advanced commercial subsonic aircraft. Electric energy obtained from nonrenewables such as coal, crude oil, LNG, and nuclear, and renewable sources such as water, wind, and solar energy is and will continue to be used by high-speed tilting, HSR, and TRM trains, advanced (electric) passenger cars, and the PRT, and

UFT In addition, LH 2 , which can be obtained from the electrolysis of water, appears to be under consideration as a future fuel for subsonic commercial APT including STA. Again, electric energy is needed for producing LH 2 . Therefore, the question arises how to obtain sufficient quantities of electric energy for satisfying humanity’s overall (generally growing) needs including those of advanced trans- port systems on the one hand while maintaining the related impacts on the envi- ronment within the prescribed targets, on the other? As well, the he question which kind of propellant/fuel would be used by the ETT system remains.

Nonrenewable primary sources will be exhausted sooner or later. Water, wind, and solar energy produced using dedicated plants installed on the Earth’s surface will remain the most important sources of renewable electric energy. Alternatively,

SSP (Space Solar Power) or SBSP (Space-Based Solar Power) 1 as a complement to existing sources/plants appear to be the most feasible long-term solution(s).

7.3.3 Safety

Advanced transport systems are expected to be safer, namely freer from traffic incidents and accidents than their conventional counterparts. This implies that, under given conditions, incidents and accidents should not occur due to already known reasons. In addition to the adequate design and construction of the infra- structure, transport means/vehicles, and supportive facilities and equipment, this will be achieved through the increased automation of operations, which will be established at the level of an individual vehicle and at the level of a route and/or the entire network. For example, advanced HS (High Speed) trains and LIFTs, advanced subsonic and supersonic commercial aircraft, and large advanced con- tainer ships and aircraft are guided automatically by autopilots mainly during the cruising phase of their trip. It is only a matter of time when advanced (electric) passenger cars, BRT buses, and mega trucks will start to be guided in a similar way. Analogously, advanced ATC technologies and operations will enable allo- cation of a part of the responsibility for aircraft separation from ATC controllers to the pilots. PRT and UFT are fully automated driverless systems at both the level of

1 At present, solar energy is routinely used on nearly all spacecraft. On a larger scale, this technology combined with already demonstrated wireless power transmission could satisfy nearly

all needs for electricity on Earth. Thus, the SSP system would consist of lower-cost environmentally friendly launch vehicles, large solar power satellites, and a power transmission system, technologies already known today at least at the conceptual level (NSS 2007 ).

398 7 Advanced Transport Systems: Contribution to Sustainability an individual vehicle/capsule and the level of the route network. In semi-auto-

mated systems, automation helps drivers change their role from the previously more intensive controlling and monitoring to the present and future increasingly if not exclusively monitoring. In driverless systems, the controlling and monitoring role is and will be carried out fully automatically by central computer systems. Such developments will certainly bring advantages in terms of improving the efficiency, effectiveness, and inherent safety of these systems. On the other hand, disadvantages may include less employment and increased complexity requiring longer learning/training time and resulting in higher repair costs in case of tech- nical failure. In addition, safety of operations could be significantly compromised when the drivers again take over a controlling and monitoring role. In light of the above-mentioned issues, the long-standing principal dilemma about the division of tasks between man and machine and consequently sharing the ultimate responsi- bility remains. In addition, incidents and accidents still remain possible. In such cases, due to operating at high speed and/or due to large size, the human causalities and property damage could be devastating. Therefore, in any case, safety will remain to be of the highest priority in designing and operating both existing and forthcoming advanced transport systems, as well as their conventional counterparts.

Reference NSS. (2007). Space solar power: An investment for today-an energy solution for tomorrow.

Washington, D.C.: National Space Society.