7.6 BB1 2016 English 15.2 Final Final

Page | 63 Table 2.6.3.1.1: Petroleum Revenues from Bayu-Undan and Kitan 2014-2020 m 2014 Actual 2015 Estimate 2016 Budget 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Petroleum Fund Revenue 2,318.5 1,394.1 1,593.5 1,268.8 1,257.4 989.8 896.2 Petroleum Fund Investmetn Return 501.6 532.2 874.8 919.6 922.0 883.0 844.6 Total Petroleum Revenue 1,817.0 861.9 718.7 349.2 335.4 106.8 51.6 BU FTPRoyalties 137.7 74.0 64.5 44.7 38.7 23.6 11.2 BU Profit oil 901.4 417.4 327.1 150.3 127.1 35.0 0.0 BU Income Tax 370.1 131.2 104.0 32.2 46.3 0.0 0.0 BU Additional Profit Tax 296.9 156.9 173.9 68.4 81.0 0.0 0.0 BU Value Added Tax 13.4 7.7 7.6 11.7 8.0 11.8 8.5 BU Wages Tax 9.0 10.7 10.4 15.7 10.5 15.3 10.8 BU Pipeline Payments 7.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 BU Other Payments 24.6 30.0 25.0 20.0 17.5 15.0 15.0 BU Withholding Tax 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Kitan 50.2 27.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Actual Cash flow for 2014 Estimated 2015 as of September 2015. From 2015 onwards BU Withholding Tax is included in BU Value Added Tax. BU: Bayu Undan Source: Petroleum Fund Administration Unit, Ministry of Finance, 2015 Petroleum prices As for last year, the Brent crude oil benchmark is used in the petroleum wealth calculation. Brent is a better indicator of the price of Bayu-Undan and Kitan liquid products condensate and LPG. 12 Section 2.6.3.2 on the Petroleum Wealth and ESI Calculation discusses this further. The oil price has substantially dropped since mid 2014 by almost 50 per cent due to over-supply and weak demand. The daily average oil price of Brent in 2015 for the period from 1 January to 31 July was 57.7 per barrel. The estimated average oil price for 2015 as a whole is 56.7 per barrel. This is much lower than the average daily oil price in previous years; in 2013 and 2014 the oil price in 2015 dollars was 97.9 and 93.3 per barrel respectively. The oil price has been more volatile since mid-2014 and future oil price projections also are associated with higher uncertainty. The Petroleum revenue forecasts in the Budget 2016 are based on a benchmark oil price of 64.7 per barrel in 2016, compared with 87.0 per barrel as estimated in the Budget 2015. From 2015 the oil price is now assumed to be significantly lower than 12 The future prices on Bayu-Undan and Kitan liquids products condensate and LPG are estimated based on historical relationships with a benchmark price and the benchmark´s forecast. Liquefied Natural Gas LNG prices are forecasted using the provisional price formula negotiated between sellers and buyers. The price formula is renegotiated every three years.