Drivers and Pressures Introduction

© 2014 The International Institute for Sustainable Development IISD.org 2

1.0 Introduction

In recent decades, a global trend in large basins is the development of integrated, large-scale planning eforts to manage watershed ecosystems for key environmental and socioeconomic priorities. Unfortunately, these are often in reaction to environmental problems and crises, such as water shortages, water quality concerns, lack of water for agricultural needs, or industrial impacts on water, looding, etc. Watershed ecosystems provide a host of beneits e.g., nutrient capture, lood mitigation, food provision that support both human and environmental well-being, a realization popularized with the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment in 2005 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. The need to recognize and prioritize these ecosystem beneits in basin planning is increasing Roy, Barr, Venema, 2011. This paper considers the Nelson-Churchill River Basin NCRB in Canada—the third largest North American basin—in the context of this trend. We lead with an assessment of the northern Manitoba portion of the basin, referred to as the “northern NCRB,” with plans for subsequent phases addressing trans- jurisdictional components. The northern NCRB has already undergone signiicant environmental change through the diversion of a portion of the Churchill River low into the Nelson River, and the development of hydroelectric facilities altering the hydrologic low of the rivers. Other development pressures include mines, forestry, tourism, infrastructure development and climate change. In light of these trends and the proven beneits of watershed management approaches e.g., Bach et al., 2011; Blomquist, Dinar, Kemper, 2005; Brandes O’Riordan, 2014, we present research making a strong case for integrated management of the northern NCRB system, and demonstrate how existing initiatives, policies and institutions can play a role in building towards this purpose. Such an approach would be intended to sustain and possibly improve ecosystem services we obtain from the basin long into the future and to support socioeconomic well-being. The ultimate goal of this research is to inform a framework for integrated management in the NCRB, focusing irst on the northern Manitoba portion of this basin to clarify concepts before beginning the more complicated transboundary aspects of basin policy and management. This report is comprised of two main components. The irst focuses on summarizing the biophysical, social and economic characteristics of the basin based on numerous studies already conducted. The second explores appropriate governance and management systems and tools and their relevance to the northern NCRB. We believe that this combination can help lay the foundation for strategic management in the northern Manitoba portions of the basin and, in turn, provide the momentum for sustainable management in the entire NCRB.

1.1 Drivers and Pressures

Over the next few decades, the northern Manitoba portion of the NCRB is expected to experience signiicant changes due to climate change. A pattern of warming temperatures could reduce snow and ice cover in winter, expose permafrost and reduce soil moisture Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2005; Gagnon Gough, 2005; Natural Resources Canada, 2004. Given the potential environmental and socioeconomic efects of climate change, planning for these efects will aid in mitigating negative impacts and in capitalizing on positive ones. For instance, a changing climate is already leading to more ice-free days on the Hudson Bay, which may make shipping goods through the Port of Churchill more appealing and reverse the fortunes of the port, which was closed in 2016. When planned carefully, with risks carefully considered, this type of development provides an opportunity for economic beneits to local populations. Increases in resource development, including the potential for mining, forestry and hydroelectric development, as well as potential growth in the already sizeable tourism industry in the region, could add new stresses to the environment, but they also present opportunities, particularly to improve socioeconomic © 2014 The International Institute for Sustainable Development IISD.org 3 conditions in northern communities. Large-scale basin planning that anticipates negative efects and proactively prevents or mitigates them could support sustainable development in the region. Already, mines in Manitoba, several of them in the northern NCRB, support a CAD 1.4 billion provincial mining industry metallic and industrial minerals Growth, Enterprise and Trade, 2016. In 2015, forestry in the Manitoban portion of the NCRB contributed CAD 387 million in provincial forestry exports Natural Resources Canada, 2015, though the future of this industry is uncertain at the time of writing, as the region’s forestry operator, Tolko Industries, announced it is closing its operations in December 2016 CBC, 2016. 1 In 2016, tourism contributed CAD 116 million to northern Manitoba’s economy—8 per cent of tourism spending in the province Travel Manitoba, 2016. Urgency for large-basin planning in the northern NCRB comes from several sources, including recent economic challenges e.g., closure of the Port of Churchill, reduced rail service, Tolko’s withdrawal from forestry operations in the region and current political priorities. At the provincial level, the Progressive Conservative government elected in April 2016 has announced several initiatives relevant to sustainable development in the region, including increased funding for tourism development in northern Manitoba Government of Manitoba, 2016a and the creation of a task force to lead the implementation process for the northern economic development strategy Government of Manitoba 2016d. At the federal level, the 2016 Government of Canada budget announced CAD 8.4 billion in funding over ive years “to improve the socio-economic conditions of Indigenous peoples and their communities and bring about transformational change” Indigenous and Northern Afairs Canada, 2016. Many of the investments relate in a broad way to good land and water stewardship, such as funding of water and wastewater treatment, waste management, drinking water monitoring on reserves, community infrastructure including natural disaster mitigation and supporting public and indigenous participation in environmental assessments Indigenous and Northern Afairs Canada, 2016. While the northern NCRB is not a speciic focus, the support for greater Indigenous engagement and improved relationships complements shared decision making for regions. As discussed in this report, Indigenous communities within the northern NCRB are increasingly taking on management of major infrastructure in the basin, such as in the current proposal from a consortium of communities to buy and operate the Hudson Bay Railway line, which runs to the Port of Churchill. A number of communities have also entered into partnership agreements with Manitoba Hydro in recent years to develop hydroelectric facilities. For sustainable development in the northern NCRB, it is critical that such an initiative be contextualized within broader regional we argue watershed-based planning. In addition, based on our research, we make the case that Indigenous Peoples be meaningfully involved and share in beneits. This report begins to consider these intertwined and complex socioeconomic and environmental considerations in integrated watershed planning of the northern NCRB. Nevertheless, to fully consider them in depth, understand the interconnections and create a full framework for basin-level planning, more work needs to be undertaken collaboratively with all interests to further assess speciic ecosystem services and potential trade-ofs. Perhaps most importantly, this basin planning requires dialogue and the eventual development of a governance structure in the basin. As such, this report makes few conclusive recommendations; the path forward is ultimately for those with a stake in the basin to decide together. This report is meant to prompt basin-scale thinking and help create a discussion among northern NCRB interests about how their land and waters can best be co-managed. Moreover, we hope any process encouraged by this work ultimately links with basin-level initiatives in the upper i.e., southern portion of the greater NCRB. 1 In November 2016 Tolko Industries Ltd.’s Manitoba operations and assets were sold to American Industrial AcquisitionCanadian Kraft Industries Limited Government of Manitoba, 2016e © 2014 The International Institute for Sustainable Development IISD.org 4

2.0 A Summary