376 S.L. DesJardins et al. Economics of Education Review 18 1999 375–390
education must become better informed about how social, environmental, and individual factors affect stud-
ent departure decisions. This paper provides insights into how educational stakeholders can improve their under-
standing of the student departure process. The major pur- poses of this line of inquiry are first, to discuss a statisti-
cal modeling approach, event history modeling, that overcomes many of the deficiencies of previous models
of student departure and allows powerful insights into the dynamics of this process and, second, to present a
model of student departure that draws on data commonly available to institutions of higher education.
In Section 2 we discuss the previous research on stud- ent departure. In Section 3 statistical problems that have
plagued earlier studies of student departure are discussed and we present a conceptual and formal statistical model
of student departure. In Section 4 the model specification and sample attributes are presented. Section 5 details the
empirical results. In the final section Section 6 we dis- cuss the policy implications, the limitations of the study,
and possibilities for further research.
2. Previous studies of student departure
Many studies have attempted to test the two major competing theories of persistence: the Student Inte-
gration Model Spady, 1970, 1971; Tinto, 1975, 1982, 1987, 1988 and the Student Attrition Model Bean,
1978, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983; Price, 1977. These stud- ies stress the importance placed on the predictive validity
of precollege variables in the former and on factors external to the institution in the latter.
Based largely on Spady’s and Tinto’s research, the Student Integration Model stresses the importance of stu-
dents’ academic and institutional commitments. These commitments are shaped by interrelations that take place
within the institution, namely a matching between stu- dents’ motivations and academic ability and the insti-
tution’s academic and social characteristics Cabrera, Nora Castaneda, 1993. The Student Attrition Model
emphasizes the importance of the intention to remain enrolled or to depart from college. The sequencing of
events leading to departure is hypothesized to be the fol- lowing: beliefs shape attitudes, and attitudes affect the
intent to remain enrolled or to drop out. Differentiating the Student Attrition Model from the Student Integration
Model is the relative importance attributed to factors external to the institution. The Student Attrition Model
posits a much more important role for factors external to the institution in influencing student attitudes and
enrollment decisions for a more detailed examination of the literature see Bean, 1981.
While the Student Integration and Student Attrition Models have been viewed as competing frameworks,
Cabrera et al. 1993 have shown that this is not the case. Important components of the models overlap, and other
aspects of the models are complementary. Cabrera and colleagues offer an integrated model that yields a differ-
ent understanding of the persistence process. Emphasis is placed on the structural specification of the psycho-
logical and sociological processes underlying persist- ence behavior.
One of the goals of this study is to help develop a better understanding of student departure from college.
Most theories of student departure have been effective at describing student departure but quite ineffective in
explaining this process Tinto, 1993. By shedding light on the longitudinal nature of the process of student
departure, we hope to provide a method that will better enable us to describe and explain student departure from
college. Although it is widely appreciated that the pro- cess of student departure from college is dynamic, pre-
vious studies have either ignored the timing of stopout temporarily leaving college, dropout, or graduation or
have focused on a convenient time frame, such as track- ing students from fall-to-fall or examining departure
before and after an arbitrarily chosen point in time 4 or 5 years. Event history models allow us to incorporate a
more exact timing of departure into the estimation of student exits from college and permits a more appropri-
ate utilization of longitudinal data as called for by Pasca- rella 1986.
3. Methodological considerations
