were the case, the size of cohorts exposed to violence would be smaller than in peaceful years. Results show that cohorts affected by violence were not smaller than
the nonaffected ones in neither 1993 nor 2007. For the 2007 sample, I see that there are marginal differences in average age and the percentage of native speakers, with
violent districts having older people though the difference is close to zero, and smaller indigenous populations. On the other hand, the gender composition and
migration in violent districts do not seem to differ by violence exposure status.
In 1993, there are no significant differences in cohort size, gender composition, migration rates, percentage of indigenous population, or education of the household
head. There is a difference in wealth, with violent districts being slightly poorer.
16
IV. Results and Discussion
A. Long-term Consequences of the Conflict
Table 5 shows the results of the main specification presented in Equation 3. In all the specifications I use a set of variables indicating the number of years that each
individual was exposed to violence during each period of the early life: in utero prebirth 1–2 years before birth, early childhood 0–3 years old, preschool 4–6,
primary school 7–12, and secondary school age 13–17.
17
Being exposed to vio- lence before entering school—that is, during the prebirthin utero years, early child-
hood, or preschool age—has a statistically and economically significant effect on long-run human capital accumulation. As shown in Column 1 in Table 5, an addi-
tional year of exposure to violence before birth implies that the person will accu- mulate 0.07 fewer years of education; if the shock happens during the early child-
hood or in preschool age, it reduces long-term educational achievement by 0.05 years for each year of exposure to violence. On the other hand, living in a district
affected by violence during primary or secondary school age does not have a sig- nificant impact on long-run educational achievement. Further, I expect that any vi-
olent shock experienced by the household during the years before the mother was pregnant, or about to conceive, will not have any effect on the child’s educational
outcomes. As a robustness check, Column 2 tests this hypothesis by including in- dicators for the presence of violence in the district of birth during the years before
the in uteroprebirth period. As expected, I do not find any statistically significant effect for these variables.
18,19
16. I thank an anonymous referee for suggesting this test. 17. The results are robust to the choice of years grouped together. Figure 3 show the results year by year.
The inclusion of the years before birth in the “early childhood” period reflects the fact that violence shocks can have persistent effects on the mother’s health status and errors in assigning violence due to age
reporting. 18. In Table A.2 in the Appendix available from the author, I explore the heterogeneous impacts of
violence by gender and ethnicity. The point estimates for the exposure to violence in all periods are larger for girls than those found in my benchmark specification in the first column, and statistically significant
for exposure during the early childhood, and in the preschool period. On the other hand, for men only the exposure to violence during the early childhood seems to be an important determinant of future schooling,
and the coefficient is smaller in magnitude. Meanwhile, I find that the effect for native speakers is larger
Table 5 Violence and Human Capital Accumulation: Long-term Effects
1 2
3 Years of education
Exposed to violent events in hisher year −6 −0.055
−0.072 0.041
0.048 Exposed to violent events in hisher year −5
−0.019 −0.034
0.031 0.035
Exposed to violent events in hisher year −4 −0.021
−0.040 0.037
0.038 Exposed to violent events in hisher year −3
−0.051 −0.059
0.031 0.035
Number of years exposed to violent events in utero
−0.071 −0.079
0.021 0.023
Number of years exposed to violent events early childhood
−0.051 −0.061
0.014 0.016
Number of years exposed to violent events preschool age
−0.051 −0.063
0.015 0.016
Number of years exposed to violent events primary school age
−0.019 −0.032
0.014 0.016
Number of years exposed to violent events high school age
0.000 −0.019
0.013 0.016
Gender male = 1 0.438
0.437 0.437
0.030 0.030
0.030 Mother’s language native = 1
−1.747 −1.747
−1.747 0.064
0.064 0.064
Constant 8.613
8.589 8.658
0.066 0.054
0.071 District of birth fixed effects
Yes Yes
Yes Year of birth fixed effects
Yes Yes
Yes Province specific cubic trend
Yes Yes
Yes Mean dependent variable
9.40 Observations
139,446 139,446
139,446 R
-squared 0.06
0.06 0.06
Significant at 10 percent; significant at 5 percent; significant at 1 percent. Standard errors clustered at the district of birth level in parentheses. The sample includes all people between 18 and 32 years old
interviewed in the 2007 national census. The periods of life considered are defined as follows: early childhood −2–3 years old, preschool 4–6 years old, primary school age 7–12 years old, and high
school age 13–17 years old. The F-test of joint significance for the coefficients before year −2 in Columns 2 and 3 fails to reject the null that they are jointly equal to zero. In Column 2, the F-test is 1.94 p-
value = 0.1013, while in Column 3, the F-test is 1.86 p-value = 0.1157.
One potential concern with the results shown in Column 1 is that the time-series correlation in the exposure of violence might be affecting my estimates. One way to
indirectly test this is to include in the same regression the indicator variables for the violence exposure before birth, as well as those indicating the number of years of
exposure to violence in each period of the individual’s life. I do this in Column 3, finding again no statistically significant results for the exposure to violence during the
years before pregnancy.
20
The coefficients associated with violence in the in utero, early childhood, and preschool years are still significant at the conventional levels
and their magnitude is slightly increased compared to those shown in Column 1. The average child affected by violence in each of the periods analyzed, in utero,
early childhood, or preschool, had about 1.4, 2.2 and 1.9 years of exposure, respec- tively. This means that the average child exposed to violence in uteroprebirth ac-
cumulated about 0.10 fewer years of schooling than hisher peers who lived in peaceful districts or were born in peaceful years. For the average child affected
during either early childhood or preschool age, the effects of an additional year of exposure are 0.11 and 0.10, respectively.
21
Moreover, I can be fully flexible in the functional form assumed to fit Equation 3, and include indicators for each year
exposed to violence. Figure 3 shows these results in a graphical way. Consistent with Table 5, the effect of violence exposure before the mother was pregnant 3–6
years before is not statistically different from zero, while this effect is relevant while the child is between −2 and 6 years old. The coefficients corresponding to
older ages are again indistinguishable from zero.
22
To put these results in context, Duflo 2001 finds that the effect of the massive school construction program in Indonesia on school attainment is of similar mag-
nitude, but in the opposite direction: each school constructed per 1,000 children led to an increase of 0.12 to 0.19 years of education.
B. Potential Biases and Concerns
