I-C 10 likelihood already number in the tens of millions worldwide.
31
An estimated 135 million people—many in sub-Saharan Africa—are at risk of being driven from their
lands because of desertification.
32
And climate change may cause as many as 150 million environmental refugees by 2050, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change.
33
Such displaced populations may find it difficult to find new livelihoods in other rural areas or in already-crowded cities and may even clash with unwelcoming host
communities. The influx of people can impose a considerable burden on the receiving area in terms of increased competition over land, water, jobs, communal
facilities, and social services. This is especially the case if the host community’s economy is stagnant or in decline, if government is corrupt and indifferent to the
needs of its people, or if the influx is sudden and massive. All too often, newcomers are seen as unwelcome competitors and accused of irredeemably altering the local
culture and customs. And political leaders or challengers are sometimes eager to capitalize on stirring up resentments.
34
f. Disasters
In addition to the gradual undermining of livelihoods, environmental degradation is setting the stage for more frequent and more devastating natural disasters. And the
deterioration of forest watersheds, wetlands, coral reefs, and other ecosystems also means that human communities have less protection against extreme weather events
and other disasters.
The number of disasters has risen from about 750 in 1980-84 to almost 2,000 in 2000-2004. The number of people affected has risen from about 500 million to 1.4
billon during the same period of time.
35
And the pace is likely to accelerate in coming years as climate change translates into more intense storms, flooding, heat waves,
and droughts. Disasters often have devastating impacts on the safety and wellbeing of affected
communities in terms of people killed and injured, health epidemics, dwellings destroyed, and damage to industries, fisheries, agriculture, and critical physical
infrastructure. Economic and ecological marginalisation worsen the impacts on poor people and ethnic minorities.
Disasters may undermine the long-term habitability or economic viability of an affected area. But even where the effects are more temporary, disasters often exact
a heavy toll in terms of indebtedness, poverty, and unemployment. Such adverse effects can easily deepen fault lines—between rich and poor, urban and rural
communities, and different ethnic groups. In divided societies, conflict may arise if relief and reconstruction aid are wielded as a tool for dispensing favours to one
community or group over another or for tightening the government’s political control.
36 31
Rhoda Margesson, “Environmental Refugees,” in State of the World 2005, op. cit. note 14, pp. 40-41.
32
“Creeping Desertification: The Cause and Consequence of Poverty,” Environment News Service, 18 June 2004.
33
Ibid.
34
Renner, Fighting for Survival, op. cit. note 22, pp. 97-113; Hal Kane, The Hour of Departure: Forces that Create Refugees and Migrants, Worldwatch Paper 125 Washington,
DC: Worldwatch Institute, June 1995.
35
Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters CRED, EM-DAT: The OFDACRED International Disaster Database, at
www.em-dat.net ; Munich Re, Annual Review: Natural
Catastrophes in 2005 Munich: 2006.
36
Michael Renner and Zoë Chafe, “Turning Disasters into Peacemaking Opportunities,” in Worldwatch Institute, State of the World 2006 New York: W.W. Norton Co., 2006.
I-C 11 It is not a given that competition over scarce resources or the repercussions of
environmental degradation will lead to violent conflict. But they often do sharpen hardships and burdens, heighten the desperation of those most affected, and reinforce
the perception that disputes are of a “zero-sum” nature. Different social groups and communities experience the effects of resource depletion and environmental degradation
unevenly. These divergences can reinforce social and economic inequities or deepen ethnic and political contention.
Because many societies fall short on conflict prevention and mediation capacities, and political leaders or their challengers often find that they can gain influence or strengthen
their power by fanning the passions, it is likely that environmental factors will play an increasingly important role in triggering or aggravating conflicts. Worst-case outcomes
are more likely where political grievances are left to fester, where public institutions are weak or corrupt, and where weapons particularly small arms are easily available.
4. The Repercussions of Resource Wealth
