Simulation Model for Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia

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Beny Bastiawan

Graduate School

Bogor Agricultural University

2005

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Beny Bastiawan

A Thesis submitted for the degree of Master of Science Of Bogor Agricultural University

MASTER SCIENCE IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY FOR NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

GRADUATE SCHOOL

BOGOR AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY September 2005

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STATEMENT

I, Beny Bastiawan, here by stated that this thesis entitled:

Simulation Model For Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia

Are result of my own work during the period of June until August 2003 and it has not been published before. The content of the thesis has been examined by the advising committee and the external examiner.

Bogor, September 2005

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ACKNOWLEDGMENT

First of all I would like to grateful thanks to Allah S.W.T for his favor and giving me power in order to finish this research. There are many people I should thank in regard to this work and no doubt I will not be able to name one by one. To these I can but beg forgiveness.

I wish to thank to my supervisor Dr. Ir. Kudang Boro Seminar, M.Sc. and my co-supervisor Dr. Ir. Hartrisari Hardjomidjojo, M.Sc. for their guidance, technical comments and constructive criticism trough all months of my research.

I would like to thank to Dr. Ir. Tania June M.Sc., Chairman of study program MIT for her kindness and providing academic assistance.

I would like to thank to Dr. Ir. Akhmad Fauzi M.Sc. as the external examiner of this thesis for his positive ideas and inputs.

I would like to thank Bpk. Drs. Sudaryono, Bpk. Ir. Arief Yuwono MA., Bpk. Drs. Heru Waluyo M.Com, Ibu Ir. Wahyu Indraningsih for my appreciate very much the thoughtfulness and support also my colleague in Assistant Deputy for Coastal and Marine Degradation Control division, the Ministry of Environment.

I would also thank to all our lecture in MIT, Dr. Ir. R. Kaswaji, M. Sc, and Virza Syafaat S., SE. M.Sc. who taught me the very important knowledge for my future.

To the entire friends, MIT students especially study year 2001, I really appreciate our togetherness and how we support each other to finish our study. And Also to the All MIT student , who give me support prepare this research.

Finally I feel deeply indebted to my dear wife, Yoyoh M., for her highly moral support and patience during the study. I also dedicated this thesis to My mother, My Father and my son Abim (Abimantrana M. Bp.) also, my sisters, my brother and my lovely country Indonesia.

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CURRICULUM VITAE

Beny Bastiawan was born in Bandung, West Java, Indonesia on March 7, 1964. He received his under graduate degree from Computer and Information Management College STI&K, Jakarta in 1996 in the field of Information Technology (IT). From the year of 1987 to 1990, he work for The State Ministry of Environmental of Indonesia, and from 1991 until 2000 he work for The Impact Management Agencies of Indonesia (BAPEDAL). Since 2000 to present, he works as Staff in the Ministry of Environment Republic of Indonesia .

In the year of 2001, Beny Bastiawan received a scholarship from the Ministry of Environment Republic of Indonesia to pursue his graduate study. He received his Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management from Bogor Agricultural University in September 30, 2005 respectively. His thesis was on “Simulation Model For Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia”.

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ABSTRACT

Beny Bastiawan (2005). Simulation Model For Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia. Under the Supervision of Kudang Boro Seminar and Hartrisari Hardjomidjojo

This research was conducted from April 2004 – January 2005 in bogor, West Java – Indonesia. The area of study is the Sea Waters at Indonesia especially on the Region Management of Fisheries of Indonesia.

The General objective of the research area : 1. To recommendation a strategy of Indonesia to release commerce issue of marine fish product in facing up the international forum, 2. To estimation of Indonesian position in related to free trade issue in the sector of marine fisheries.

The input data are collected from various source among other 1. the Ministry of Marine affairs and Fisheries of Indonesia. 2. Statistics Indonesia of The Republic of Indonesia (BPS), 3. Center for Oceanography Research of The Indonesian Institute of Science ( P2O LIPI) and others.

The analysis method used the simulation model by Dynamic modeling where we focusing on sub model such as Buffer Stock, Production, Exploitation, demand and Supply. Also the Method for the research of Simulation model for Tuna and Shrimp production in Indonesia are several aspects that is from research of natural growth of fish population ( Tuna and Shrimp) natural added from illegal fishing influencing with growth of fish resources (Tuna).

Later; Then from fish resource population ( Stock of Fish resource) existing this hence seen ability of Tuna and Shrimp production and related ability of effort capturing of fish resources ( Catch Per Effort Unit) in tuna production and Shrimp. As for the Fish Resource concern of ability of fish production is very influence by capacities of Maximum Sustainable Yield in each of Fish resources (Tuna and Shrimp) making this Maximum Sustainable Yield is limitation of Exploitation of Fish resources.

Henceforth model will be tried validation model to see how accurate of itself model in simulation. And in the end will be seen how big and make everlasting him exploit fish resources related to Maximum Sustainable Yield between Exporting and Import. To see the mention of Simulation model than some scenario alternative those are scenario by 1.) Condition of existing where each the variable of relating with the data existing data of this matter was we assume as scenario which still moderate; 2.) Condition where the output is productivity become the target of maximally assigned value for Maximum Sustainable Yield most optimum tolerance range; 3.) Related with the conservation concept where expected for the fisheries resource remain to make Sustainable but the production output of seen did not maximum.

From third scenario expected for the exploitation of fisheries resource (Tuna and Shrimp), projection supported policy of exploitation of fisheries resources which with vision of development of have continuance, where exploited fish resources still sustainable to the continuity of and existence of fisheries resources itself.

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Form

Research Title : Simulation Model for Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia Student Name : Beny Bastiawan

Student ID : G015010051

Study Program : Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management

Approved by, Advisory Board:

Dr. Ir. Kudang Boro Seminar, M. Sc. Dr. Ir. Hartrisari Hardjomidjojo, M. Sc. Supervisor Co-Supervisor

Endorsed by,

Program Coordinator Dean of The Graduate School

Dr. Ir. Tania June, M. Sc. Prof. Dr. Ir. Syafrida Manuwoto, M. Sc.

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STATEMENT... i

ACKNOWLEDGMENT ... ii

CURRICULUM VITAE... iii

Abstract... iv

Table of Contents... vi

List of Tables ... viii

List of Figures... ix

List of APPENDIX ... x

I. INTRODUCTION ... 1

1.1. Background ... 1

1.2. Objectives ... 3

II. LITERATURE REVIEW ... 4

2.1. The Commerce of Multilateral-WTO... 4

2.2. Resources Valuation... 9

2.3. Economic valuation of natural Resources ... 10

2.4. Modeling ... 12

III. Research Methodology ... 14

3.1. Location... 14

3.2. Research Materials and Tools ... 14

3.3. Logical Frame... 16

3.4. Legal Aspects ... 18

3.5. Modeling aspect... 19

3.7. Developing Model ... 22

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IV. Result and Discussion... 25

4.1. The Legal Aspect Perspective ... 25

4.2. Modeling Base Development ... 28

4.3. Assessment of Fisheries Resources Potency ... 32

4.4. Modeling Stages ... 35

4.4.1 Growth Population of Fisheries Resources... 35

4.4.2 Production (Catch per Effort Unit) ... 41

4.4.3 Illegal fishing ... 43

4.4.4 Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) ... 45

4.4.5 Model Simulation ... 47

4.4.6 Validation of Model behavior... 51

4.4.7 Sub Model of Buffer Stock... 56

4.4.8 Sub Model Production ... 58

4.4.9 Sub Model Exploitation ... 61

4.4.10 Sub Model of Demand Side... 64

4.4.11 Sub Model Supply ... 66

4.5. Appraisal Analysis... 69

4.5.1 Model Scenario I (Moderate)... 70

4.5.2 Model Scenario II (Optimistic)... 72

4.5.3 Model Scenario III ( Conservation) ... 75

V. Conclusions & Recommendations... 78

5.1. Conclusions ... 78

5.2. Recommendations ... 80

References... 81

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Relation between level growth of fishery and activity of assessment of

stock needed... 34

Table 2. Resource Fish catch and landing of Fish of each study region... 37

Table 3. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery Resources (pelagic fish) 1997 ... 39

Table 4. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery Resources (pelagic fish) 2001 ... 39

Table 5. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Shrimp Resources (shrimp) 1997... 40

Table 6. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Shrimp Resources (penaied) 2001 ... 40

Table 7. Catch Per Effort Unit for Tuna and Shrimp... 42

Table 8. MSY Calculation referred Shaefer Model ... 47

Table 9. Model validation with the Tuna Resources ... 51

Table 10. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery Resources(Pelagic ) 2001 (ton)... 52

Table 11. Result execute simulation for sub model Buffer Stock. ... 57

Table 12. boundary of Maximal ideal of production. ... 60

Table 13. Simulation Model for Tuna ... 63

Table 14. Result of Import Fresh Tuna and Canned Tuna... 66

Table 15. Result of Import Fresh Tuna and Canned Tuna... 67

Table 16. Simulasi model Scenario I ... 71

Table 17 . Simulasi model Scenario II... 74

Table 18. Simulasi model Scenario III ... 76

Table 19. Variable for Simulation Model ... 78

Table 20. Scenario I (Moderate) ... 79

Table 21. Scenario II (Optimistic) ... 79

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Beny Bastiawan

Graduate School

Bogor Agricultural University

2005

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Beny Bastiawan

A Thesis submitted for the degree of Master of Science Of Bogor Agricultural University

MASTER SCIENCE IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY FOR NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

GRADUATE SCHOOL

BOGOR AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY September 2005

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STATEMENT

I, Beny Bastiawan, here by stated that this thesis entitled:

Simulation Model For Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia

Bogor, September 2005

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ACKNOWLEDGMENT

I would like to thank to Dr. Ir. Tania June M.Sc., Chairman of study program MIT for her kindness and providing academic assistance.

I would like to thank to Dr. Ir. Akhmad Fauzi M.Sc. as the external examiner of this thesis for his positive ideas and inputs.

I would also thank to all our lecture in MIT, Dr. Ir. R. Kaswaji, M. Sc, and Virza Syafaat S., SE. M.Sc. who taught me the very important knowledge for my future.

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CURRICULUM VITAE

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ABSTRACT

Beny Bastiawan (2005). Simulation Model For Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia. Under the Supervision of Kudang Boro Seminar and Hartrisari Hardjomidjojo

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Form

Research Title : Simulation Model for Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia Student Name : Beny Bastiawan

Student ID : G015010051

Study Program : Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management

Approved by, Advisory Board:

Dr. Ir. Kudang Boro Seminar, M. Sc. Dr. Ir. Hartrisari Hardjomidjojo, M. Sc. Supervisor Co-Supervisor

Endorsed by,

Program Coordinator Dean of The Graduate School

Dr. Ir. Tania June, M. Sc. Prof. Dr. Ir. Syafrida Manuwoto, M. Sc.

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STATEMENT... i

ACKNOWLEDGMENT ... ii

CURRICULUM VITAE... iii

Abstract... iv

Table of Contents... vi

List of Tables ... viii

List of Figures... ix

List of APPENDIX ... x

I. INTRODUCTION ... 1

1.1. Background ... 1

1.2. Objectives ... 3

II. LITERATURE REVIEW ... 4

2.1. The Commerce of Multilateral-WTO... 4

2.2. Resources Valuation... 9

2.3. Economic valuation of natural Resources ... 10

2.4. Modeling ... 12

III. Research Methodology ... 14

3.1. Location... 14

3.2. Research Materials and Tools ... 14

3.3. Logical Frame... 16

3.4. Legal Aspects ... 18

3.5. Modeling aspect... 19

3.7. Developing Model ... 22

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IV. Result and Discussion... 25

4.1. The Legal Aspect Perspective ... 25

4.2. Modeling Base Development ... 28

4.3. Assessment of Fisheries Resources Potency ... 32

4.4. Modeling Stages ... 35

4.4.1 Growth Population of Fisheries Resources... 35

4.4.2 Production (Catch per Effort Unit) ... 41

4.4.3 Illegal fishing ... 43

4.4.4 Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) ... 45

4.4.5 Model Simulation ... 47

4.4.6 Validation of Model behavior... 51

4.4.7 Sub Model of Buffer Stock... 56

4.4.8 Sub Model Production ... 58

4.4.9 Sub Model Exploitation ... 61

4.4.10 Sub Model of Demand Side... 64

4.4.11 Sub Model Supply ... 66

4.5. Appraisal Analysis... 69

4.5.1 Model Scenario I (Moderate)... 70

4.5.2 Model Scenario II (Optimistic)... 72

4.5.3 Model Scenario III ( Conservation) ... 75

V. Conclusions & Recommendations... 78

5.1. Conclusions ... 78

5.2. Recommendations ... 80

References... 81

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Relation between level growth of fishery and activity of assessment of

stock needed... 34

Table 2. Resource Fish catch and landing of Fish of each study region... 37

Table 3. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery Resources (pelagic fish) 1997 ... 39

Table 4. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery Resources (pelagic fish) 2001 ... 39

Table 5. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Shrimp Resources (shrimp) 1997... 40

Table 6. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Shrimp Resources (penaied) 2001 ... 40

Table 7. Catch Per Effort Unit for Tuna and Shrimp... 42

Table 8. MSY Calculation referred Shaefer Model ... 47

Table 9. Model validation with the Tuna Resources ... 51

Table 10. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery Resources(Pelagic ) 2001 (ton)... 52

Table 11. Result execute simulation for sub model Buffer Stock. ... 57

Table 12. boundary of Maximal ideal of production. ... 60

Table 13. Simulation Model for Tuna ... 63

Table 14. Result of Import Fresh Tuna and Canned Tuna... 66

Table 15. Result of Import Fresh Tuna and Canned Tuna... 67

Table 16. Simulasi model Scenario I ... 71

Table 17 . Simulasi model Scenario II... 74

Table 18. Simulasi model Scenario III ... 76

Table 19. Variable for Simulation Model ... 78

Table 20. Scenario I (Moderate) ... 79

Table 21. Scenario II (Optimistic) ... 79

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LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 1. Study Area (Indonesia Map )... 14

Figure 2. Logical Frame Work... 16

Figure 3. Diagram input – Output of Economic Strategic of Fish resources Indonesia... 17

Figure 4. (Logical frame work for forming the model of Indonesian economic development in Marine and Fisheries (The Steps in System Analysis John Sterman, 2000) ... 21

Figure 5. Region Management of Fishery (WPP) (dahuri, R.. 2003) ... 37

Figure 6. Illustration Model assumption from Shcaefer Model ... 46

Figure 7. Overall Causal loop Simulation Model for Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia... 49

Figure 8. Structure model Simulation Model for Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia... 50

Figure 9. Interface Structure model Simulation Model for Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia ... 50

Figure 10. Graphic with Model validation with the Tuna Resources ... 52

Figure 11. Sub – Model Buffer Stock ... 56

Figure 12. Graphic Buffer Stock ... 57

Figure 13. Sub – Model Production ... 58

Figure 14. Boundary of maximal ( exploitation for tuna) ... 59

Figure 15. Sub – Model Exploitation ... 61

Figure 16. Total export value of Tuna and Shrimp ... 63

Figure 17. Sub – Model Demand ... 65

Figure 18. Number value of Fresh Tuna and Frozen Tuna Import ... 65

Figure 19. Number value of Fresh Tuna and Frozen Tuna Import ... 67

Figure 20 . Simulasi model Scenario I ... 71

Figure 21. Simulation Model Scenario II... 73

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LIST OF APPENDIX

Appendix 1. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery Resources ... 83 Appendix 2. Export Total of Fishery Products 1993 - 2002 ... 85 Appendix 3. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery... 87 Appendix 4. Model Formulation ... 90 Appendix 5. Result of Simulation Model... 95

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I. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Background

In order to support policies to perform the Basic Strategy Compilation of Indonesian Economic Position policy in Marine and Fishery Area In Multilateral Commerce System Frame World Trade Organization (WTO), some policies and steps could be taken by Government in supporting some policy strategies, for example:

a. Inventory Problems of marine and fishery area in international trade forum especially in Tuna fish and Shrimp.

b. Inventory Strategy of Indonesian Economic Policy Marine and Fishery Area, Industry and Commerce zone area of corporate world in Multilateral Commerce System Frame – WTO

c. Forming the development model of Indonesian economy in marine and fishery area as elementary strategy compilation reference.

From above policy Strategy therefore third point for the “Forming the development model of Indonesian economy in marine and fishery area as elementary strategy compilation reference”, represents the study requirement analysis for the needed quantity.

As Model requirement will be conducted in this empiric, hence it needs various quantitative data from the used parameters and variables. In the model focused on fishery area, some variables are influencing other;

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dissimilar variables, which are not needed by quantitative data of valuation to the parameter. By conducting monetary supervision from available fishery data, internalizing various variables hopefully can be performed to structure more hierarchical development model.

As fundamental attention that Indonesia has the biggest territorial waters area in the world with the fishery commodity owning value export like Tuna and shrimp, it needs the elementary strategy in facing up the consultation – related to WTO consultation in the fishery sector. This matter is significant to maintain the product competitiveness and secure the high value of fishery resource capacities.

Considering that this elementary strategy compilation refers to the system of WTO and is constituted by simulation and model, hence its specialty in the effort management of marine resource and national fishery requires the existence of forming modeling system. This Modeling system basically represents the sub-system model of Indonesian economy. Refer to the valuation mentioned above, the stock resources on the marine and national fishery represent the step of initial model forming. In this context, the stock is including mutation of stock resource, the affect of the redundancy from the mutation stock and contribution of mutation activity stock to the national economy.

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1.2. Objectives

This study is aimed to develop the economic policy strategy of Indonesia in facing up the International forum in area of marine and fishery.

From the inferential above opinion, the objectives are:

a. To recommend strategy of Indonesia to release commerce issue of marine fish product in facing up the International Forum.

b. Stipulating estimation of Indonesian position related to free trade issue in the sector of marine and fishery.

This study result will be strategy model of Indonesia to respond various global commerce issue of fishery in International trade.

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II. LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1. The Commerce of Multilateral-WTO

World Trade Organization (WTO Agreements signed in Marrakech in 1994 is purposed to create fair commerce and more market oriented one through developing tied and multilateral agreements. One of the main principles in rule implementation of WTO agreements is the non-discriminative which means not treat distinctively the industry domestically or broadly. Recently, fishery sector is not included in Agreement on Agriculture, so the solution in WTO forum always tends to enter the non-agriculture group. Though for Indonesia, during the time, fishery sector represents one of policy dimension from agriculture policy in general. Consequently, benefit from free trade in agricultural sector which in Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) comprises fundamental pillars: (a) reduce all form of the exporting subsidiary; (b) repair access to the market; and (c) reduce domestic support; cannot be enjoyed by commerce mechanism of available fishery result.

Before KTM WTO IV Doha, commerce of fishery yields was discussed more in Committee Sanitary-PhytoSanitary (SPS) and Technical Barrier To Trade (TBT). From early 2002 it has been studied also in Committee on Trade and Environment (CTE) and Negotiating Groups on Rules and Negotiating Groups on Market Access for Non Agricultural Products (MANAP) Learning from unpleasant experience of the previous KTMs,

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especially those concerning Agreement on Agriculture (AoA), Indonesia had better prepare settled strategy so that the negotiation in fishery sector could increase export stream of fisher products and yields, and provide beneficial advantages for thee development of fishery industry in future. Globalization era brings the export to the larger opportunity one but at the same time we should watch out our domestic market because imported products might flow tremendously into the domestic market. Fishery yields produced in many countries; as a result the competition is increasingly tight because there are more and more perpetrators in international market. Hence, only few products of competitiveness win the emulation. Advancing competitiveness is absolutely needed through efficiency advancement at any levels of efforts, advancement the quality of human resources (skills and professionalism), and development of resource base products having comparative excellences.

On the other side, Indonesia as biggest archipelago country in the world broadly region of territorial water for the width of 5, 8 million km2 (3 / 4 region represents the region of physical water ecosystems), more than 17.500 islands and 81.000 km second biggest coastline after Canada, owns an sustainable potency (Maximum Sustainable Yield = MSY) fishery resources yields from 6,4 million tons per year (BRKP-DKP, 2001). From the sustainable potency, almost 5,14 million tons per year derives from territorial waters and archipelago, and 1,26 million tons per year from Indonesian Exclusive Economic Zone (ZEEI). If permitted capture number is approximately 80% from its sustainable potency or

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MSY, hence the fish resources yields equal to 5,12 million tons per year will be available. Based on the record of fishery capture, in the year 2001 number total capture is 4,069 million tons (BPS, 2001). It means that usage levels of fishery resources in Indonesia recently reaches 63,50%. It also means that the exploiting opportunities equals 36,5% or at least ranging from 1,12 to 2,4 million tons per year with the productivities rate assumption that the capture is as many as the previous years.

If manageable exploiting potency we have for the sake of the national interests is production bases which are regularly established, particularly to develop distribution bases mainly in the frame of international commerce, many barriers are found. The barriers might be grouped into tariff barrier, non tariff and other issues. The emerging tariff barrier is the existence of tariff escalation discriminative attitudes. For instance, European Union apply tariff to 24 % for the canned Tuna cultivation, 20% for canned shrimp and 25% for Mackerel. Meanwhile, the US applies the tariff to 34% for canned Tuna in the oil. Another discriminative treatment is the customs tariff liberation for the imported canned Tuna from the countries associated in ACP in EU market and in pouch tune from the counties associated in Andean Pact found in the US. Meanwhile, until recently Indonesia is said to be liberal in applying tariff for fishery yield and also said to be low, i.e. 0 – 5%, with 3,5 % averagely, even it does not apply escalation tariff.

Other technical borders in intenational commerce of the fishery yields which are related to SPS measurement are quality standard, sanitary,

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microbe, pathogen, hystamine, heavy metal and hormone. Even, the European Union tend to use the complex food safety condition. EU deliver embargo on the exported shell products coming from Indonesia due to we have not yet been monitoring system on waters sanitary which, in EU version, belong to our responsibility. Meanwhile, US also apply various requirements that might be a hiden barrier, such as the obligation to use TEDs, or ‘accuation’ of using longline and gillnet on capturing Tuna. This usage is pressumbably endangesr the seabird and leatherback turtles.

Although recently the export comodity of marine and fishery have not yet become the main commodity, but the strategic environment and modality, more over the competitors countries are in short of fishery and marine resources, Indonesia has opportunity to be an outstanding industrious country of fisheries in the world.

Therefore, Indonesia have to take several strategics steps to safe (safeguard) marine and fishery commodity from the probblems in this sector, either in recent time or future, particularly those related to world commerce in the frame of World Trade Organization (WTO) or in the frame of regional Free Trade Area (FTA), in which Indonesia belongs to it.

Indonesia is one of the members of Agreement Establishing WTO and had also rafied Agreement Establshing the World Trade Organization with UU no 7 in the year of 1994 about legalizing Agreement Establshing the World Trade Organization (State Paper no. 57 Year 1994, Additional

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Paper no 3564) desepite Indonesia did not ratify the entire agreements ehich are Annex of Agreement Establishing the WTO.

By signing and ratifying the WTO, every member state, including Indonesia, has the legal rights not to be treated discriminatively by other members in treatment of tariff area, non tariff as well as the treatment in national. Besides, member states of WTO is also entitled to fight for the authority, for example, through solving dispute of WTO and blame the other state policies presumably harmful for the interests of developing countries in many relevant forums of WTO.

For the state which is ready for globalization, accordingly all negotiations resulted from WTO forum will be the opportunity (big opportunity), for example, to reduce tariff. Eliminating trade barrier in other countries can give big opportunity to the export of the developing countries, including Indonesia. However, on the other side, WTO does not only create opportunity, but also threat. System of world commerce will be complicated and tightly regulated. Thereby for state which is not ready, the existence of tight regulation in WTO exactly will pursue the state commerce growth. It is impossible that various agreement of WTO is utilized by developed countries to protect their domestic interests from coming import. Other significant advantage is that developing countries might determine the consultation members in international commerce for the next periods, which during the time it is predominated by developed

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countries. This matter will not occur if the developing countries are not under the system WTO

2.2. Resources Valuation

The experience of resource valuation is a process to calculate the value of resources, both in the form of product and commodity of environmental service in term of monetary. The valuation process is conducted by various methodologies of monetary valuation to calculate the value utility and non utility value from environmental and natural resources.

Valuing the environmental and natural resources valuations is unlike assessment of service and goods. Usually assessment from goods is visible from price determined by market, where the process represents the condition supply and demand. Environmental and natural resource, such as forest and coastal area countable their values from the trading process in the market. Unfortunately, the values only show the partial value of natural and environment resources. Environmental and natural resources basically produce more products and services than what traded in market are. For example, forest resources generally are merely valued for their wood, logarithm or plywood produced. For coral reef, values are upon the captured fish. Presumably, it is due to the products are relatively easier and traded in the market.

Meanwhile many matters are left uncared, that forest and coral reef are composed to give various services which can lessen the expense caused

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by erosion occurrence if the resources are not available. For instance, forests prevent the floods by permeating water, while coral reef serves as coastal prop from wave. In this case, potential expense obviated can be considered the accepted benefit.

Two main procedures in valuation environmental expense and benefit are:

1. Determining physical impacts and their relation, 2. Valuing the benefits and affects in term of monetary.

The first step is to determine the potential impact that may happen to natural if there is ‘accident’ environmental. This procedure is usually done by the experts of engineering and ecology. Meanwhile, the second step is performed by using economic analysis approach which repeatedly requires the proficiency of discounting cost and benefits for the future.

2.3. Economic valuation of natural Resources

Economic assessment is not representing independent ethics assessment, like the following statement:

“Appropriate value for natural resources given for variety conservation is possibly pushed by caring of moral or ethics. For example, it is pushed by interest of others prosperity or other species. Caring moral and ethic are, like feeling and choice could be translated as desire to protect the biological variety” (Perrings Et al 1996 pp 829).

In comprehending natural value and environmental function, economic experts have developed the taxonomy from what called a Total Economic

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Value (NET). NET is divided into two parts, those are the assessment to utility and the one to the non-use value (passive use).

Equation 1: Total Environmental and Economic Value

Use Value Passive or Non-use value TEV = F( DUV, IUV, OV, QOV + BV, EV) TV = G(PV + TEV)

Non-anthropocentric

Instrumental value Where :

TV = Total Environmental Value TEV = Total Economic Value DUV = Direct use Value IUV = Indirect Use Value OV = Option Value QOV = Quasi Option Value BV = Bequest Value PV = Primary Value EV = Existence Value

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2.4. Modeling

In Order to support the basic strategy compilation of Indonesian economic policy position on marine and fishery areas in the frame of system of multilateral commerce – WTO, it is required simulation and model functioned as sub-system models from economic model or Indonesian economic development.

The model approach to be developed in this study is conducted with the pattern of model development based on computer modeling, from simple to the complex to support and be used as instrument (tools) in policy analysis especially at basic strategy policy of Indonesian economic politic position of marine and fishery areas, by calculating and analyzing the policy mainly related closely to mathematic programming. Prediction tendency and other instruments are linked to Analysis Instrument System. Definition of the model refers to the definition that the model is a simplification of the real situation found in the real world. The real and complex events in the real life could be defined as a tern of event. In this case, each definition in the real life is selected into procedure mechanisms in an operation from a system where those mechanisms are parts of the model.

Model is implemented to accomplish the complex problems of the system that develop simplification and comparison from the real situation. The pattern of modeling approach in this study is performed with the approach pattern of Dynamic System Model or “Dynamic Modeling System “, in which this dynamic system represents the methodologies

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responding a complex system to solve the economic, ecology and social problems .

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III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1. Location

This research conducted in Indonesian islands especially in the areas which are potential for fish resources (Tuna and Shrimp) areas (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Study Area (Indonesia Map )

3.2. Research Materials and Tools

The data used in this study are:

1. Indonesian Aquaculture Statistic from Directorate General for Aqua Culture, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries

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2. Statistical of Fishery Capture of Indonesia from Directorate General of Fishery Capture, Ministry of Marine and Fisheries Affairs

3. Stock Assessment form Fish Resources in Indonesian waters (South China Seas, Sulawesi Seas, Banda Seas and Java Sea). BRKP-DKP and P2O LIPI

4. Export Statistic of Fishery Products in 2002 from Directorate General for Aqua Culture, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries

5. Export Statistic of Fishery Products in 1999 from Directorate General for Aqua Culture, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries

6. Import Statistic of Fishery Products in 2002 from Directorate General for Aqua Culture, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries

7. Import Statistic of Fishery products in 1999 from Directorate General for Aqua Culture, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries

8. Digital map of Indonesian boundaries with scale 1 : (flexible depend on needs) from Bakosurtannal

9. Digital map of Indonesian Fisheries with scale 1 : (flexible depend on needs) from Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries In this research, supporting tools used, as the terms of software and hardware are as the followings:

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1. Software

• Arcview 3.3

• I think Analyst Software Version 6.01 for Windows

• Microsoft Excel 2002 2. Hardware

• PC Pentium IV, 400 Mhz, RAM 256 MB

3.3. Logical Frame

In this study implementation will follow the logical framework such as found in figure 2.

Figure 2. Logical Frame Work

In order to follow and make balance the various growths that happened in multilateral commerce system in World Trade Organization, Indonesia claim to accommodate the various commerce policies of fishery

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products in global market. To reach this target, presumably Indonesia need to determine the basic strategy of economic policy position of the marine and fishery sector that can be the guidance in so different multilateral commerce consultations. In determining the basic strategy of this economic policy position, it is important to know various external factors which are immeasurable, opportunity and threat, where study focus will be emphasized on the agreements which have been agreed on WTO related to fishery sector.

Besides, it also finds various resistances internal factors and challenges owned and faced by fishery sector domestically, both in the form of resource potency and supported infrastructure, and also in the form of political policy peripheral in regulation and legislation.

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In the implementation of fishery resources to economy, it needs the existence of experienced effort resources valuation that can be an input for decision making about economic development in fishery sector. With the existence of this input, accordingly macro economic model sector of marine and fishery in national can be compiled as an empirical base for determining the position of economic policy of fishery sector in global commerce. Through this model we can prepare various policy scenarios to win the global market.

3.4. Legal Aspects

The Analysis conducted refers to three variables, those are (1) UU of Fishery No. 31 Year 2004, (2) Agreements of World Commerce System (World Trade Organization), (3) Resources of Indonesian marine and fishery. The analysis focuses on 5 important pillars, (1) Policy pointing to resources (resources, such as fish and others); (2) harvester; (3) Industry managing fishery resources in framework of added value and commerce (industry and trade); (4) Consumer (consumer); and (5) Continuation of environment (environmental aspect / preservation).

Among the three variables placed on the existence of relation among UU Republic of Indonesia, International Convention, effect the regulation product to exploit and manage resources of marine and fishery.

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Since its basic assumption is ratified by WTO (Final Multilateral Act Embodying the Results of the Uruguay Round of Trade Negotiations) by Indonesia, Indonesia have bounded it self for the comply of the rule in regime WTO such as: General Agreement on Trade and Tariff, Agreement On the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary, Agreement On Technical Barriers to Trade, and Agreement on Safeguards. Compilation of legislation Product after ratification, including of Fishery Regulation, should consider the basic principles of WTO.

3.5. Modeling aspect

In order to support the basic compilation of Indonesia economic policy position in the area of Marine and fishery in multilateral commerce system frame, therefore a functioning model and simulation are required as sub-system model from economic model of Indonesia.

The model approach to be developed in this study is conducted with the pattern of model development based on the computer model compiled from simple model up to complex one to support and to be used as tools in policy analysis. By having calculation analysis, the policy especially in the field of economy and other related components can be implemented by Mathematic Programming. It is also possible to predict the tendencies and other instruments dealing with Instrument System Analyses.

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Methodologies are developed by utilizing dynamic system for example:

- Identify the problems

- Develop explanation on problems themselves

- Design and develop; build the model of computer simulation in solution from problems root.

- Conduct the study and try to form the model itself for monitoring the behavior at the real life.

- Result from this model will be made as policy alternatives to assist trouble-shooting.

- The result the alternative hopefully can be utilized as a support in giving solution.

According to developer of dynamic system model (Jay W. Forrester), explaining application developed with the system of dynamic model earn the application into problems resolving, such as :

- Scheme and design the area of the effort - Public policy and management

- Model of medicine and biology - Environment and energy

- Social science and nature science development. - Dynamic having the character of decision making.

- Complicated problems and the character of the non-linear dynamic.

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Figure 4. (Logical frame work for forming the model of Indonesian economic development in Marine and Fisheries (The Steps in System Analysis John Sterman, 2000)

Scheme and model development in this study are conducted by an approach pattern drawn in Figure 4. They are also prepared with the supported phases, such as :

1. Data collection, Various relevant information and data in this study will be collected from various different sources to be used as a study base legal valuation of fishery resources, forming model

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and finally determining the policy on economic position in multilateral commerce.

2. Data Analysis, Data gathered will be analyzed based on to requirement, particularly to equalize the consistent usher of the obtained variables with optimal result. If needed, to some data gathered adjustment are performed.

3.7. Developing Model

One of the important parts of this study is model development representing moderation process from system of incoming effects on the real life in which it can be analyzed easily. From this, various model related to each variable influencing each other are visible. Later analysis on how an influence happening in one particular variable in the case of change from other variables is conducted.

The developed model will represent the network from various sub models at fishery sector, where in this case the more focused one on fishery resources becomes commodity in international trade especially Tuna and Shrimp.

This model development will use software available to water down the study execution process. Software to be used is Stella-I think and its ability is reliable. This software is applicable to develop or build the model, make the simulation in various scenarios and to estimate the related usher in analyzing the variables.

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3.8. Implementation phase

In this study, several phases will be implemented as follows:

• Global commerce Literature study, fishery sector. This Phase is to know various rationale and growth that happened in global commerce area, and the other relevant with fishery sector.

• Macro Economic data collecting, this Phase is aimed to observing various relevant macro economic data with the resource of Indonesian fishery traded in global market, especially from export and import side.

• Data collecting of fishery resources (Tuna and Shrimp) are necessary to complete various variables from developed model, to see related usher to the variable.

• Valuation of fishery resources (Tuna and Shrimp) to assign monetary.

• Basic model development using Modeling builder represents the phases to chain the related variables.

• Multilateral commerce variable formulation represents the phase in various low aspects toward International Global Trade in fish resources (Tuna and Shrimp).

• Evaluation model

• The time of entire models formed have real correction; model has earned better operation.

• Determination of Scenario

• Analyze the result of simulation

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• Write the report of the analysis result.

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IV. RESULT AND DISCUSSION

The goals and target of this research are to develop the frame of Model in the structure with two (2) subs Model:

1. Sub Model of the fishery resources divided into Tuna and Shrimps 2. Sub Model in the macro economy divided into sub Export and import where they are combined in International Trade. The Aspect of those matters is legal aspect (The Act of Fisheries and World Trade Organization agreement).

4.1. The Legal Aspect Perspective

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Unfortunately, in international context of this case, it has not yet been obtained certain arrangement. Until this article is made, facilitation trade is not yet agreed in the negotiation of Word Trade Organization (WTO). If Indonesia can give facility to fisherman’s ship of this free sea water, it is not impossible that Indonesia get benefits from this activity, at least from the sector of marine product collection and labor port.

However, the more important thing is how to give emphasize on fishery policy in Indonesia. The policy should be put down to manage available excellence, whether that of comparability or competitiveness. If it is realized that excellence is more dominant on comparability than the excellence of competitive, hence policy direction has to emphasize more on how to manage comparability excellence in the form of properties of fish resources and others. It is later aimed at making added value. It means that Indonesia have to conduct efforts to be properties so that the resources can be turned into economic potency in the form of processing products having the high competitiveness.

In this context, policy of Indonesian fishery is aimed at accomplishing international standards, such as agreed on pursuant to Agreement Application Sanitary Phytosanitary and The Agreement on Technical Barriers Trade, and Agreement of Safeguards. In meeting international standard, product competitiveness of Indonesian fishery process in the global market will progressively increase. In Article 3 sentence (2) Agreement on Application Sanitary Phytosanitary, it is expressed that “Sanitary or phytosanitary measurement which confirm to international standards, guidelines or recommendations shall be essential to protect

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human being, animal or plant life or health, and is presumed to be consistent with the relevant provisions of GATT Agreement 1994”.

When the Law of the Republic of Indonesia (UU) of Fishery emphasizes more on resources protection of small harvesters, consequently effort to do is how small harvesters can fulfill such international standard. In this context, the synergy among the persons responsible for this effort or small farming fishermen becomes relevant. It means that the same activities between small fisherman and processing fish industry become one of alternatives to improve comparability excellence become competitive excellences. Hopefully small fishermen become suppliers for fish processing industry to fulfill capture standard or marine culture agreed or determined by the stakeholders. The Government can give facilities related to agreements with this matter.

It is necessary realize that the system of free access to market adopt beneficial WTO agreements to have advance technology and capital. They relatively fulfill standards specified by state members of WTO and international standard, for technical standard and standard in frame of sanitary and of Phytosanitary. If it is hoped that Indonesia exceed the negotiation to area commerce of fishery products, thus beforehand Indonesia have to strive accomplishment of international standards which are applied in the members of WTO.

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4.2. Modeling Base Development

Free trade emphasizes more on freedom in goods current and services. In the case of marine and fishery products, emulation in open commerce makes two product levels; those are raw material products such as fresh fish and frozen fish, and product of process, such as canned fish. The raw material sectors, emulation happened in the context of comparability excellence. Nations with high raw material potency tend to exceed their roles as fresh fish or frozen fish supplier. A problem is that fish resources are not only limited to territorial sea, but also free seas, outside exclusive economic zone. If fisherman’ ship captures in free sea water, hence captured products can only be claimed as coming pertinent ship Flag State. In this context, Indonesia can give facility to the fisherman’ ship to exploit port of Indonesia as commerce bases of such captured products. Unfortunately, in international context of this case, it has not yet been obtained certain arrangement. Until this article is made, facilitation trade is not yet agreed in the negotiation of Word Trade Organization (WTO). If Indonesia can give facility to fisherman’s ship of this free sea water, it is not impossible that Indonesia get benefits from this activity, at least from the sector of marine product collection and labor port.

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on how to manage comparability excellence in the form of properties of fish resources and others. It is later aimed at making added value. It means that Indonesia have to conduct efforts to be properties so that the resources can be turned into economic potency in the form of processing products having the high competitiveness.

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marine culture agreed or determined by the stakeholders. The Government can give facilities related to agreements with this matter.

In the modeling, the important step is determining parts of the system and how the available components in the system are linked. while determining, it is necessary for the modeler to have experience and intuition. Further more, it should be supported by sufficient data both primer and secondary. The analysis system in the process of decision-making, which is using operating research (System Analysis), consists of five steps:

• Identifying the problems

• Making the model

• Analyzing the model

• Validating the model

• Implementing the model

Generally, the steps of making the models can be classified into conception, diagrammatic model and computer model.

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Modeler should decide how simple or complex to make the model. If the model is too simple, it might be inaccurate to describe the condition of the real system. On the other hand, if it is too complicated, it might be unmanageable.

The comprehensive understanding of the system and the problem will facilitate the modeler to make diagram models properly and increase the opportunity that the models constructed is nearly the same as the real one.

Modeling procedures comprises eight steps:

• Defining the problems to be analyzed

• Determining scope of the problems, which are faced, based on the limitation of time, space and components of the models :

• Collecting the needed data

• Making conceptual models

• Composing mathematics equation for each function of the modeling

• Verifying or proving the models made

• Analyzing the sensitiveness of observing the changes happened to the parameter

• Calibrating or proving the validity of the models in the field by conducting experiments.

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4.3. Assessment of Fisheries Resources Potency

Fishery study concerning various calculation of and statistic of mathematic to make prediction concerning various reaction of population to a number of choices of alternative management. Target of base of management of fishery is to assure the obtaining of going concern production of fish stock during old ones to improve prosperity of fisherman economics and social and industry fishery area.

Potency study for the stock of assessment is sometime seen as biological discipline to estimate potency. In fact a stock study of activity which is wider

The first and important is study of stock try to comprehend fishery dynamics. Base on the fact that fishery is entities the dynamics, to always respond all management action and also to intrinsic factor fishery of itself. Study of fisheries resources which have gone forward not merely working for to make various prediction having the character of static regarding everlasting potency, also have to got mixed up with to make prediction concerning expected concern during come to response change of policy and concerning how the wisdom have to structure that can accommodate a number of difficult changes of prediction but the occurrence of do not earn to be obviated.

Fisheries more than complex and from not only capturing of fish. The Fisherman and Industry in in the field of fishery is important component of system of dynamic in study and fishery of stock have to consider Fisherman and Industry to response various regulation and legislation of management of fish.

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Potency ( fish stock) cannot controlled directly like in agriculture, but fish stock influence by activity of human being and many matters efficacy of fishery very from status of itself fish stock.

For that hence policy concerning fishery have to consider the condition of from fish stock and also given respond to various addressed action to related stakeholder. As a preview of degradation of fishery capturing to specify a number of regulations as a mean to overcome abundant capturing ( over fishing) so that enable for stock the purpose to be high capturing.

In this case role of government expected can know influence to be generated by management action to fish stoke and also to period to come haul. Many other organizations need knowledge concerning capturing type able to be yielded by ship to fish stock, and from here to fish capture still going on. For example in the stock of fisheries when they have stressing from the growth over fishing, that is mean the resources of fisheries not yet growth. The juvenile of fisheries could be get caught in the mean time they didn’t growing up. The growth of this case could be loss rate from the stock of fish resources.

Therefore expand study work frame of stock, also relevant aspect of fishery science and stock study continue to expand and change. In Reiger ( 1976) illustrated for assessments of fishery can be preview on a table which is growth levels indicated and exploiting of fish resources in marine and coastal ecosystem ( table 1).

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Is caused most areas fishery of global in motion toward that, namely most of resources in a region have exploitations moderating or fully. This matter cause potency study ( stock) have to be related to storey; level of end of more based on the ecosystem whole and also interaction between the different resources of fishery also.

Table 1. Relation between level growth of fishery and activity of assessment of stock needed. Exploiting of Resource

Fish

Fisheries capturing Relevant of Biology Study

Stock Assessment Activity

1. (Trial fishing exploration)

Low Common description

of main of Stock ( taxonomy and distribution ) result of

Capturing.

Measure estimation of main stock

2. Development of fishery of existing stock which most beneficial.

Average and increasing from existing stock which most beneficial.

description of history life of existing stock which most beneficial.

Study early potency of stock existing which most beneficial.

3. Intensive capturing of existing stock which most beneficial and start to catch less profiting stock.

Average and increasing from existing stock which most beneficial.

Population dynamics of existing stock which most beneficial. Identify interaction between stock and from existing stock which most beneficial.

Assessment of MSY, OSY etc. ( reference point) for existing stock which most beneficial.

4. intensive fishery to the all stocks which earn to be marketed.

High, with possibility of degradation of stock the lowness ( vulnerable)

Population dynamics all stock. Interaction study and structure of ecosystem completely.

Curve of Yield for all interaction and stocks between them

5. Management of resource fully ( possibly followed period of over fishing)

High study of Ecosystem

and dynamics

Study of influence from management action to each; every stock/ fishery and between stock/ fishery

In conducting for study of amount of fish stock and influence of capturing fish stock fishery, experts have to use mathematics, and exploited mathematics hence complexity of real situation can be replaced with mathematics abstraction model is moderation of him.

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Models like this can be used to represent amount for example population what abundance population, individual measure relation and fish between amount. Production models, treating a fish population as a single unity which influenced by simple regulation of improvement and degradation of biomass. With this models enable to be made analysis if just very few information, namely catch, abundance, and amount of fishing effort.

4.4. Modeling Stages

For the supporting development of simulation study model to the availability of fish resources ( Tuna and Shrimp), require to run simulation for this model. Supporting variables this from sub of level model Buffer Stock, Production, Exploitation, Supply and of Demand side.

4.4.1 Growth Population of Fisheries Resources

As data base for simulation model hence especial matter to prepare data of availability of fish ( potency stock) from existing covering tuna resource and shrimp which is in data of stock fish from all Region Management of Fishery ( WPP) which exist in Indonesia.

Potency data of fisheries resources by continue and is totally required by various entrepreneur of fishery area and to all investment of fishery affairs. For governmental side of potency data wearied as

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reference in making policy for example for the give of permission is effort capturing of fish qualitative and quantitative.

Up to ready in this time potency data of fish resources still in problems. This matter because of not focused on activity of study survey of stock fish by national. Also in research into which done various institution by snatches and isn't it only in some areas. This fact have to look for the way study of stock fish which was program and various related institution which was coordinate by an institution of function and duty in the field.

In potency data study and interprets of fish resources ( Tuna and Shrimp), which needed in simulation model hence taken by data of stock fish which there have from result activity of Body survey Research into Oceanic (BRKP) - DKP and cooperation with P2O - LIPI. Of research result conducted in 9 WPP, that is :

1. Region Management of Fishery (WPP) of Malacca Strait 2. Region Management of Fishery (WPP) of South China Sea 3. Region Management of Fishery (WPP) of Java Sea

4. Region Management of Fishery (WPP) of Makasar Strait and Flores Sea

5. Region Management of Fishery (WPP) of Banda Sea

6. Region Management of Fishery (WPP) of Seram Sea dan Tomini bay

7. Region Management of Fishery (WPP) of Sulawesi Sea dan Pacific Ocean

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9. Region Management of Fishery (WPP) of Hindia Ocean

Boundary from each this WPP Indonesia pursuant to division according to Forum Co-Ordinate Management Of Capturing of Resources ( FKKPS), Fishery directorate general ( See figure 6 ) .

Figure 5. Region Management of Fishery (WPP) (dahuri, R.. 2003)

Table 2. Resource Fish catch and landing of Fish of each study region

No. Region Study Assessment of Resources

Gear of Study Landing Area

1 Malacca Strait Demersal Fish Pukat Harimau Belawan 2 South China Sea Small Pelagic Fish

Demersal Fish

Purse Seine Bubu

Pekalongan, Pontianak, Batam

3 Java Sea Small Pelagic Fish Purse Seine Payang

Pekalongan Juwana 4 Makasar Strait &

Flores Sea

Small Pelagic Fish Purse Seine Makasar 5 Banda Sea Big Pelagis Fish Pole dan Line Kendari 6. Sulawesi Sea dan

Pasifik Ocean

Big Pelagis Fish Small Pelagis Fish

Bitung 7. Arafura Sea Demersal Fish Pukat tarik Ikan Kendari, Sorong, Tual 8. Hindia Ocean Big Pelagik Fish

Demersal Fish

Long Line Bubu

Pelabuhan Ratu, Benoa, Jakarta, Sibolga, Padang,

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No. Region Study Assessment of Resources

Gear of Study Landing Area

Small Pelagis Fish Purse Seine Payang

Cilacap Perigi 9. Laut Seram –

Teluk Tomini

Big Pelagic Fish Pole dan Line Bitung

Source : BRKP-DKP & P2O-LIPI 2001

Area Method of Sweep ( Swept Sweep area of Method) In this study, wide of method of sweep used to estimate total abundance of demersal fish resources of demersal Shrimp Sustainable potency for fish resources, determined with model of Gulland ( 1971) :

Py = a x M x Bo ….(1)

While for Stock which have been laboured, Sustainable potency estimated by using model of Cadima in Wipodo et al.(1998 ) as follows.:

Py = 0.5 Z Bo ….(2)

Where, Bo Average of biomass annually and Z mortality total.

Cause Z = M+F and Y = FB, hence cadima suggest in it data concerning Z, equation ( 2) can be formulated :

Py = 0.5 (Y+B) ….(3)

Where : Y = Capturing and M = Natural Mortality.

From study result of i this research hence can be seen stock from 9 WPP specially for the estimation of potency of fish resources, Potency, Production and Exploitation in spanning 2 range of time that is year 1997 and year 2001 like seen in tables 3 and tables 4 for the potency of fish of pelagic Tables and 5 and tables 6 for Shrimp :

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Table 3. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery Resources (pelagic fish) 1997

Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery Resources (Pelagic )

No. Management Area of Marine Fisheries (WPP) Pelagic Fish

Indonesia 1997

Potency Production Exploitation

(x 1000 Ton/year) (x 1000 Ton/year) (%)

1 Malaka Strait 23.2 17.63 75.99

2 South China Sea 54.82 25.42 46.37

3 Jawa Sea 55 45.36 82.47

4 Flores Sea dan Macasar Strait 99.17 74.29 74.91

5 Banda Sea 104.12 28.71 27.57

6 Seram Sea dan Tomini bay 106.51 39.42 37.01

7 Sulawesi Sea dan Pasific Ocean 236.21 96 40.64

8 Arafuru Sea 50.86 19.28 37.91

9 Hindia Ocean 323.64 173 53.45

Total 1053.53 519.11 49.27

Source : BRPK-DKP and P2O-LIPI 2001

Table 4. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery Resources(pelagic fish) 2001

Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery Resources(Pelagic )

No. Management Area of Marine Fisheries (WPP) Pelagic Fish

Indonesia 2001

Potency Production Exploitation

(x 1000 Ton/year) (x 1000 Ton/year) (%)

1 Malaka Strait 27.67 35.27 127.47

2 South China Sea 66.08 35.16 53.21

3 Jawa Sea 55 137.82 250.58

4 Flores Sea dan Macasar Strait 193.6 85.1 43.96

5 Banda Sea 104.12 29.1 27.95

6 Seram Sea dan Tomini bay 106.51 37.46 35.17

7 Sulawesi Sea dan Pasific Ocean 175.26 153.43 87.54

8 Arafuru Sea 50.86 34.55 67.93

9 Hindia Ocean 386.26 188.28 48.74

Total 1165.36 736.17 63.17

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Table 5. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Shrimp Resources (Shrimp) 1997

Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery Resources(Shrimp )

No. Management Area of Marine Fisheries (WPP) Penaeid

Indonesia 1997

Potency Production Exploitation

(x 1000 Ton/year)

(x 1000

Ton/year) (%)

1 Malaka Strait 11.4 12.5 109.65

2 South China Sea 54.82 25.42 46.37

3 Jawa Sea 10.8 11.1 102.78

4 Flores Sea dan Macasar Strait 4.8 6.6 137.50

5 Banda Sea 0 0

6 Seram Sea dan Tomini bay 0.9 0.4 44.44

7 Sulawesi Sea dan Pasific Ocean 2.5 2 80.00

8 Arafuru Sea 21.7 42.08 193.92

9 Hindia Ocean 10.7 6.5 60.75

Total 117.62 106.6 90.63

Source : BRPK-DKP and P2O-LIPI 2001

Table 6. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Shrimp Resources Penaied (2001)

No. Management Area of Marine Fisheries (WPP) Penaeid

Indonesia 2001

Potency Production Exploitation

(x 1000 Ton/year)

(x 1000

Ton/year) (%)

1 Malaka Strait 11.4 49.46 433.86

2 South China Sea 54.82 25.42 46.37

3 Jawa Sea 11.4 52.86 463.68

4 Flores Sea dan Macasar Strait 4.8 30.91 643.96

5 Banda Sea 0 0

6 Seram Sea dan Tomini bay 0.9 1.11 123.33

7 Sulawesi Sea dan Pasific Ocean 2.5 2.18 87.20

8 Arafuru Sea 43.1 36.67 85.08

9 Hindia Ocean 10.7 10.24 95.70

Total 139.62 208.85 149.58

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4.4.2 Production (Catch per Effort Unit)

Other Variable which influence in simulation model is to haul ( catch), strive capturing ( effort fishing) and haul per unit of effort ( Catch per unit of effort/ CPUE). Three characteristic which each other relating to fish stock that is fish stock of Catch of C; fast of intake of the fish or catch mortality of F; and what overflows is connective all. ( Wipodo et al.) as accelerating intanstanues in equation. :

FN

dC dt

=

Or, during a range of time unit one year for example with equation. :

N F

C = 1)

where N is mean what overflows during that year. values of Absolute of what overflows or catch mortalities will know, but estimation will is available from some values can catch of F and result of CPUE U. The Values will be related to what abundance and mortalities together.:

F = qf

U q

N 1_⎟⎟)

⎠ ⎞ ⎜⎜ ⎝ ⎛ =

where q is ability catch. Ability Coefficient catch. Ability coefficient catch to be assumed remain to. Assess and rehabilitate from a[n network of statistic of arrest effort and haul of per unit effort depended how far mentioned acknowledgment gratify.

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Catch Mortalities ( proportion from entire harvested stock) which generated by an effort unit can be determined as product from.:

• measure of area influenced by appliance catch in one unit effort

• proportion of fish in this area by capturing gear

• ratio of the capturer area densities to mean of densities in all area inhabited by stock.

Therefore hence standardizes of catch effort of ;every change in ability catch theoretically can be done the by bearing of with one of the or some that. For factor of effort of catch can be determined as amount, all product units of ability catch from each; every unit, and utilized catch time or amount of operation units. This factors of equivalent to unit measure element strive and proportion of fish in arrest area.

Data result of from calculation extract for the CPUE of fishery of Tuna and Shrimp got [by] data of Department Marine Affairs Fisheries (DKP) and of shall be as follows :

Table 7. Catch Per Effort Unit for Tuna and Shrimp

Type of Fish Resources Years

Increasing average (%) & Type of Fishing Gear (Units) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 90-99 98-99 Tuna - Tuna Long line

879 3,311 1,321 2,171 2,152 1,649 2,790 3,009 2,285 1,844 34.41 (19.30) Shrimp - Bed Equipped Shrimp

nets 285 390 439 359 894 1,449 1,387 296 541 742 2.26 14.76

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4.4.3 Illegal fishing

Effect of continuous Illegal fishing in territorial waters around 5.8 million km2 covering sea of territorial, go out to Nusantara sea and Zone of Economic Exclusive, causing not only generating loss for state, but also menace importance of Indonesia fisherman and Industrial atmosphere and effort fishery of national.

Is seen from side importance of entrepreneur and fisherman, illegal menace potency of availability of fish, causing the happening of degradation of fish stock on a large scale. Side importance of industry and interposing of fishery, fishing illegal, generating climate emulation of Industry and effort in fishery area become indisposed, image fishery of national and possibility of Indonesia will face embargo threat of nations importer of Indonesia fish product.

Department of Marine Affairs and Fishery of Indonesia ( DKP) will always try to lessen the amount of ships thief of fish in Indonesia region. Effect of illegal loss of State of action theft of tired mean fish of Rp. 1,05 billions per year. of Rp. 1,05 billion assumed for the potency of fish resource of Pelagic ( tuna) around 75% ( source from DKP) hence after conversion to $US ( American), around $ US 2,091 per ton hence got by missing potency value around 68,149.21 ton. ( see data in Appendix).

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Appendix 5

. Result of Simulation Model

Scenario I (Moderate)

Years

Begin Production (1,000 ton)

Remain of Tuna Potency (1,000 ton)

MSY Tuna (1,000 Ton)

1993 21.18 873 465.8

1994 42.36 873 465.8

1995 63.54 851.82 465.8

1996 84.72 809.46 465.8

1997 105.9 745.92 465.8

1998 127.08 661.2 465.8

1999 148.26 555.3 465.8

2000 169.44 465.8 465.8

2001 190.62 465.8 465.8

2002 211.8 465.8 465.8

2003 232.98 465.8 465.8

2004 254.16 465.8 465.8

2005 275.34 465.8 465.8

2006 296.52 465.8 465.8

2007 317.7 465.8 465.8

2008 338.88 465.8 465.8

2009 360.06 465.8 465.8

2010 381.24 465.8 465.8

2011 402.42 465.8 465.8

2012 423.6 465.8 465.8

2013 444.78 465.8 465.8

2014 465.96 465.8 465.8

2015 487.14 465.8 465.8

2016 508.32 465.8 465.8

2017 529.5 465.8 465.8

(5)

Appendix 5

(continued)

Scenario II (Optimistic)

Years

Begin Production (1,000 ton)

Remain of Tuna Potency (1,000 ton)

MSY Tuna (1,000 Ton)

1993 42.36 873 669.4

1994 84.72 873 669.4

1995 127.08 830.64 669.4

1996 169.44 745.92 669.4

1997 211.8 669.4 669.4

1998 254.16 669.4 669.4

1999 296.52 669.4 669.4

2000 338.88 669.4 669.4

2001 381.24 669.4 669.4

2002 423.6 669.4 669.4

2003 465.96 669.4 669.4

2004 508.32 669.4 669.4

2005 550.68 669.4 669.4

2006 593.04 669.4 669.4

2007 635.4 669.4 669.4

2008 677.76 669.4 669.4

2009 720.12 669.4 669.4

2010 762.48 669.4 669.4

2011 804.84 669.4 669.4

2012 847.2 669.4 669.4

2013 889.56 669.4 669.4

2014 931.92 669.4 669.4

2015 974.28 669.4 669.4

2016 1,016.64 669.4 669.4

2017 1,059.00 669.4 669.4

(6)

Appendix 5

(continued)

Scenario III (Conservation)

Years

Begin Production (1,000 ton)

Remain of Tuna Potency (1,000 ton)

MSY Tuna (1,000 Ton)

1993 9 873 320.2

1994 18 873 320.2

1995 27 864 320.2

1996 36 846 320.2

1997 45 819 320.2

1998 54 783 320.2

1999 63 738 320.2

2000 72 684 320.2

2001 81 621 320.2

2002 90 549 320.2

2003 99 468 320.2

2004 108 378 320.2

2005 117 320.2 320.2

2006 126 320.2 320.2

2007 135 320.2 320.2

2008 144 320.2 320.2

2009 153 320.2 320.2

2010 162 320.2 320.2

2011 171 320.2 320.2

2012 180 320.2 320.2

2013 189 320.2 320.2

2014 198 320.2 320.2

2015 207 320.2 320.2

2016 216 320.2 320.2

2017 225 320.2 320.2

2018 234 320.2 320.2

2019 243 320.2 320.2

2020 252 320.2 320.2

2021 261 320.2 320.2

2022 270 320.2 320.2

2023 279 320.2 320.2

2024 288 320.2 320.2

2025 297 320.2 320.2

2026 306 320.2 320.2

2027 315 320.2 320.2

2028 324 320.2 320.2

2029 333 320.2 320.2

2030 342 320.2 320.2

2031 351 320.2 320.2

2032 360 320.2 320.2

2033 369 320.2 320.2