RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Simulation Model for Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia

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III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1. Location This research conducted in Indonesian islands especially in the areas which are potential for fish resources Tuna and Shrimp areas Figure 1. Figure 1. Study Area Indonesia Map 3.2. Research Materials and Tools The data used in this study are: 1. Indonesian Aquaculture Statistic from Directorate General for Aqua Culture, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries 15 2. Statistical of Fishery Capture of Indonesia from Directorate General of Fishery Capture, Ministry of Marine and Fisheries Affairs 3. Stock Assessment form Fish Resources in Indonesian waters South China Seas, Sulawesi Seas, Banda Seas and Java Sea. BRKP-DKP and P2O LIPI 4. Export Statistic of Fishery Products in 2002 from Directorate General for Aqua Culture, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries 5. Export Statistic of Fishery Products in 1999 from Directorate General for Aqua Culture, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries 6. Import Statistic of Fishery Products in 2002 from Directorate General for Aqua Culture, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries 7. Import Statistic of Fishery products in 1999 from Directorate General for Aqua Culture, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries 8. Digital map of Indonesian boundaries with scale 1 : flexible depend on needs from Bakosurtannal 9. Digital map of Indonesian Fisheries with scale 1 : flexible depend on needs from Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries In this research, supporting tools used, as the terms of software and hardware are as the followings: 16 1. Software • Arcview 3.3 • I think Analyst Software Version 6.01 for Windows • Microsoft Excel 2002 2. Hardware • PC Pentium IV, 400 Mhz, RAM 256 MB 3.3. Logical Frame In this study implementation will follow the logical framework such as found in figure 2. Figure 2. Logical Frame Work In order to follow and make balance the various growths that happened in multilateral commerce system in World Trade Organization, Indonesia claim to accommodate the various commerce policies of fishery 17 products in global market. To reach this target, presumably Indonesia need to determine the basic strategy of economic policy position of the marine and fishery sector that can be the guidance in so different multilateral commerce consultations. In determining the basic strategy of this economic policy position, it is important to know various external factors which are immeasurable, opportunity and threat, where study focus will be emphasized on the agreements which have been agreed on WTO related to fishery sector. Besides, it also finds various resistances internal factors and challenges owned and faced by fishery sector domestically, both in the form of resource potency and supported infrastructure, and also in the form of political policy peripheral in regulation and legislation. Figure 3. Diagram input – Output of Economic Strategic of Fish resources Indonesia 18 In the implementation of fishery resources to economy, it needs the existence of experienced effort resources valuation that can be an input for decision making about economic development in fishery sector. With the existence of this input, accordingly macro economic model sector of marine and fishery in national can be compiled as an empirical base for determining the position of economic policy of fishery sector in global commerce. Through this model we can prepare various policy scenarios to win the global market. 3.4. Legal Aspects The Analysis conducted refers to three variables, those are 1 UU of Fishery No. 31 Year 2004, 2 Agreements of World Commerce System World Trade Organization, 3 Resources of Indonesian marine and fishery. The analysis focuses on 5 important pillars, 1 Policy pointing to resources resources, such as fish and others; 2 harvester; 3 Industry managing fishery resources in framework of added value and commerce industry and trade; 4 Consumer consumer; and 5 Continuation of environment environmental aspect preservation. Among the three variables placed on the existence of relation among UU Republic of Indonesia, International Convention, effect the regulation product to exploit and manage resources of marine and fishery. 19 Since its basic assumption is ratified by WTO Final Multilateral Act Embodying the Results of the Uruguay Round of Trade Negotiations by Indonesia, Indonesia have bounded it self for the comply of the rule in regime WTO such as: General Agreement on Trade and Tariff, Agreement On the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary, Agreement On Technical Barriers to Trade, and Agreement on Safeguards. Compilation of legislation Product after ratification, including of Fishery Regulation, should consider the basic principles of WTO. 3.5. Modeling aspect In order to support the basic compilation of Indonesia economic policy position in the area of Marine and fishery in multilateral commerce system frame, therefore a functioning model and simulation are required as sub-system model from economic model of Indonesia. The model approach to be developed in this study is conducted with the pattern of model development based on the computer model compiled from simple model up to complex one to support and to be used as tools in policy analysis. By having calculation analysis, the policy especially in the field of economy and other related components can be implemented by Mathematic Programming. It is also possible to predict the tendencies and other instruments dealing with Instrument System Analyses. 20 Methodologies are developed by utilizing dynamic system for example: - Identify the problems - Develop explanation on problems themselves - Design and develop; build the model of computer simulation in solution from problems root. - Conduct the study and try to form the model itself for monitoring the behavior at the real life. - Result from this model will be made as policy alternatives to assist trouble-shooting. - The result the alternative hopefully can be utilized as a support in giving solution. According to developer of dynamic system model Jay W. Forrester, explaining application developed with the system of dynamic model earn the application into problems resolving, such as : - Scheme and design the area of the effort - Public policy and management - Model of medicine and biology - Environment and energy - Social science and nature science development. - Dynamic having the character of decision making. - Complicated problems and the character of the non-linear dynamic. 21 Figure 4. Logical frame work for forming the model of Indonesian economic development in Marine and Fisheries The Steps in System Analysis John Sterman, 2000 Scheme and model development in this study are conducted by an approach pattern drawn in Figure 4. They are also prepared with the supported phases, such as : 1. Data collection, Various relevant information and data in this study will be collected from various different sources to be used as a study base legal valuation of fishery resources, forming model 22 and finally determining the policy on economic position in multilateral commerce. 2. Data Analysis, Data gathered will be analyzed based on to requirement, particularly to equalize the consistent usher of the obtained variables with optimal result. If needed, to some data gathered adjustment are performed. 3.7. Developing Model One of the important parts of this study is model development representing moderation process from system of incoming effects on the real life in which it can be analyzed easily. From this, various model related to each variable influencing each other are visible. Later analysis on how an influence happening in one particular variable in the case of change from other variables is conducted. The developed model will represent the network from various sub models at fishery sector, where in this case the more focused one on fishery resources becomes commodity in international trade especially Tuna and Shrimp. This model development will use software available to water down the study execution process. Software to be used is Stella-I think and its ability is reliable. This software is applicable to develop or build the model, make the simulation in various scenarios and to estimate the related usher in analyzing the variables. 23 3.8. Implementation phase In this study, several phases will be implemented as follows: • Global commerce Literature study, fishery sector. This Phase is to know various rationale and growth that happened in global commerce area, and the other relevant with fishery sector. • Macro Economic data collecting, this Phase is aimed to observing various relevant macro economic data with the resource of Indonesian fishery traded in global market, especially from export and import side. • Data collecting of fishery resources Tuna and Shrimp are necessary to complete various variables from developed model, to see related usher to the variable. • Valuation of fishery resources Tuna and Shrimp to assign monetary. • Basic model development using Modeling builder represents the phases to chain the related variables. • Multilateral commerce variable formulation represents the phase in various low aspects toward International Global Trade in fish resources Tuna and Shrimp. • Evaluation model • The time of entire models formed have real correction; model has earned better operation. • Determination of Scenario • Analyze the result of simulation • Determine the base strategy 24 • Write the report of the analysis result. • Consult and evaluate result of the model. 25

IV. RESULT AND DISCUSSION