PO
i
is the predicted output from the model for the i
th
trading day, and AO
i
is the actual output for the i
th
trading day, n the total predicted outputs. The
error level was determined 5 and it means that those outputs with the error level less than the defined value are considered as correctly predicted
values.
3.3 Research Data
The research data used in this study is the direction of change in the daily Jakarta composite stock price index JKSE. This is composed of closing
price, the high price and the low price of total price index. The grand total number of sample is 2,298 trading days, from January 3, 2005 to May 28,
2014. It is divided into two sub-periods. First sub-periods of January 3, 2005 to December 30, 2010 is in network training periods, its values are obtained
with different combinations of parameters for testing the models. The second sub-period of January 3, 2005 to May 28, 2014 is in sample period
for testing prediction rate. The whole data in the statistical population were employed in the analysis and this leads to non-selection of a specified
sampling method. The number of sample with increasing direction is 1,303 while the number of sample with decreasing direction is 995. That is, 57
of the all sample have an increasing direction and 43 of the all sample have a decreasing direction. The research data used in this study is the
direction of daily closing price movement in the JKSE. The number of sample for each year is shown in Table 1.
error level was determin n
ed ed
5 5 and it m
m ea
ea ns that those outputs with the error
level less tha a
n n the defined value are consider
r ed
ed as correctly predicted
values s
. .
3.3 R Research
h Data
Th h
e e
re re
se se
a arch d
d at
at a used in this s
tu dy is the dire
ct ctio
io n of
c cha
ha ng
ng e in the
he daily Ja
Ja ka
k rta c
comp os
it e stock price index JKSE
. Th
is is co
ompos o
ed ed
of clos s
in i
g pric
e e,
the high price an
d the lo w
price of t otal
price index. The
e g
ra a
nd nd
total al
nu u
mb er
o f
sa mple is
2, 29
8 trad in
g days ,
from January 3, 20 5
5 to
M May
ay 28,
2 20
14. It is div id
ed into tw
o su
b- pe
ri od
s. First
sub -p
eriods of Ja nu
uary 3, 20 00
5 5
t to
December 30, 2010 i s
in network train in
g periods, its values a
are ob ob
t tained
d wi
th d
if f
fe fe
re re
nt nt c
c om
om bi
bi na
na tion
n s
s of par
ar am
et et
er er
s s
fo fo
r r
te te
st st
in in
g g
the models. Th
The e
second sub-period of January 3 3
, 2
2005 to May 28, 2014 is in sample e
pe pe
ri rio
od for
te te
st st
in in
g g
pr pr
ed ed
ic ic
ti ti
on on
r r
at at
e. e.
The whole d d
at at
a a
in in
t t
he he
s s
ta ta
ti ti
st st
ic ic
al al
p pop
p ul
ul at
at io
io n
n w
were em
em pl
p oy
y ed
d i
i n
n th
the an an
al al
ys ys
is i
and nd
t t
hi hi
s lead ad
s s
to to
non n
-s -sel
el ec
ec tion o
o f
f a
a sp
specified samp
li ling method. The numb
ber of sam ample with increasing
di direction is 1,303
while the number of samp le
l with dec
creasing direction is 995. That is, 57 of the all sample have an in
increasin ng direction and 43 of the all sample
have a decreasing direction. T The
e research data used in this study is the
i = 1,2,...n 11 Table 1. The number of sample in the entire data set
Description Year
Total 05
06 07
08 09
10 11
12 13
14 May
Increase 136
144 151
123 141
140 137
135 131
62 1,300
56 59 60 51 58 57
55 55 55 63
57 Decrease
107 101
109 120
102 105
110 109
109 36
998 44 41 40
49 42 43 45 45 45
37 43
Total 243
245 250
243 243
245 247
244 240
98 2,298
Source: author calculation, 2014
3.4 Data preparation
