Impact of stricter Child support enforcement on Fertility—Background Literature

Aizer and McLanahan 31 mothers that includes information on future child support, receipt of financial assis- tance during the prenatal period, prenatal investments by mothers and fathers, and mothers’ ability to borrow. We find that mothers who receive child support at Year 1 are more likely to make greater prenatal investments. However, even when we condi- tion on prenatal financial transfers from the father, the positive impact of future child support on maternal investment in the prenatal period remains. That is, even among mothers who receive no prenatal transfers, those with future child support payments are still more likely to invest in the prenatal period. This finding is inconsistent with the first mechanism—that fathers who expect to pay child support in the future will invest more during the prenatal period which enables mothers to invest more in pre- natal care. Nor do we find evidence to support the second mechanism—that mothers who receive child support in the future will invest more in prenatal care because they are able to borrow against future child support payments. We find no difference in the impact of future child support receipt on prenatal investment between mothers who are able to borrow and those who are not. The results from the Fragile Families data suggest that selection on fertility, rather than an income effect, is driving the finding that increases in the probability of future child support payments lead to an increase in the average probability of maternal prenatal investment in children. Our analysis has implications for a broad range of research that examines the effect of policies on child outcomes. Insofar as policies affect fertility decisions as well as subsequent parental behavior and child outcomes, failing to take account of the for- mer may lead to incorrect estimates of the true effect of the policies. The rest of the paper is laid out as follows: In Section II, we explore the incentive effects of stricter child support enforcement and their implications in terms of poten- tial selection on the birth mother and review the relevant literature. In Section III we discuss our identification strategy and present the results from the aggregate state- level analysis of births from vital statistics data. In Section IV we present results from the Fragile Families analyses, which explores the mechanisms behind the finding that more stringent child support enforcement leads to increased prenatal investment. Section V concludes by discussing the implications of our findings regarding estima- tion of the impact of child support on child wellbeing.

II. Incentive Effects of Stricter Child support enforcement

A. Impact of stricter Child support enforcement on Fertility—Background Literature

Theoretical predictions of the impact of stricter child support enforcement CSE on the number of births or composition of parents are ambiguous. On the one hand, stricter CSE raises the financial obligation of the absent father to the mother, raising the cost to single fathers of having children. On the other hand, stricter CSE lowers the cost of hav- ing children faced by single mothers. Although the former should lead to a decline in out-of-wedlock births, the latter should lead to an increase; so that the net effect of stricter CSE on fertility is ambiguous a priori. The Journal of Human Resources 32 The empirical evidence with respect to the impact of child support enforcement on fertility suggests that the incentive effects of stricter CSE for men outweigh those for women: states with stricter child support enforcement have witnessed a decline in out- of -wedlock births. 4 These studies rely on changes in state laws governing child sup- port enforcement paternity establishment, immediate withholding, etc. to identify the impact of stricter child support enforcement on fertility. 5 Examples of this litera- ture include Sonenstein, Pleck, and Ku 1994 who find that adolescent males are aware of paternity establishment policies and modify their sexual behavior and contraceptive use accordingly. Garfinkel and his colleagues Garfinkel, Huang, McLanahan, and Gaylin 2003; Plotnick, Garfinkel, McLanahan, and Ku 2004 link higher paternity establishment rates to nonmarital childbearing and find that higher paternity establishment rates reduce nonmarital child. Though most of these studies employ state and year fixed effects, endogeneity of the child support enforcement policies still poses a problem if the timing of the policies within each state is driven by unobservable characteristics related to fertility and nonmarital childbearing that are changing over time. We address the potential policy endogeneity of stricter child support enforcement and describe our identification strategy in Section III. Although there is considerable empirical evidence regarding the impact of stricter CSE on fertility, there is no research on how child support affects the composition or quality of parents. We provide the first such empirical estimates of the impact of stricter CSE on the composition of mothers and thus the potential quality of parent- ing and child outcomes.

B. Impact of Stricter Child support enforcement on Composition of Mothers