The Impact of Sea Level Rise On Delta Management: A Case Study of Landuse for Shrimp Ponds Area in MuarauIu Island Mahakam Delta
ABSTRACT
DEWAYANY SUTRISNO. The Impact of Sea Level Rise On Delta
Management: A Case Study of Landuse for Shrimp Ponds Area in MuarauIu
Island Mahakam Delta. Under the direction of JOHN I PARIWONO, JACUB
RAlS and TRIDOYO KUSUMASTANTO.
Coastal recession has become one of the main issues for c o d and
archipelagic countries. Sea level rise is one of the htors that cause that problem.
Dealing with this phenomenon, a shoreline retreat model based on Geographical
Information System (GIS) was developed to predict the future impact of sea level
rise and sedimentation on coastal area and its existing land use, This impact could
be physical, ecological or ecowmid. Muaraulu island, a small island in
Mahakam Delta is selected as the study area. The model developed in this study is
based on Hennecke et al. mdel(2004) with major d i i c a t i o n in sedimentation
The difference fiom Hennecke model is sedimentation component was added as
the negative component of the sea level rise, the model is dynamic and using local
sea level rise data. In addition, economic analysis and policy options in order to
gain the optimal land use management of the study area are also included in the
model.
Analyses of tidal data and field observation show that there is a tendency
of sea level rise within the study area. The analysis also shows that the rate of sea
level rise is higher than sedimentation, indicating that the shoreline retreat will
occur in the Muaraulu coast. Simulatiun using the model that was develop in this
study support this phenomenon. The result of the model based on worst and
best scenario, estimates that for the next 10 years there will k 1.83 - 41.57 m
shoreline retreat, 1.90 - 45.63 ha shrimp ponds loss, 1 -44 - 78.77 ha inundation
of mangrove area and the total profit loss of shrimp pond industry abut
Rp 16,260,000,- - Rp 355,000,000,-. The simulation also shows that the sea level
rise and sedimentation have significant impact on shrimp ponds industry but
insignificant on the traditional capture fisheries. T k implementation of the policy
scenarios within the study area indicate that the silvo-fisheries scenario which
managing 10 % of the island for shrimp pods, including improvement of the
shrimp seed quality, show the best l a d use management. The scenario indicates
the increasing rehabilitation cost but give tbe highest Net Present Value (NPY).
Results of the shoreline retreat model indicate that the model can be applied as a
tool for analyzing sustainable land use management for the delta area, especially
for shrimp pond industry.
DEWAYANY SUTRISNO. The Impact of Sea Level Rise On Delta
Management: A Case Study of Landuse for Shrimp Ponds Area in MuarauIu
Island Mahakam Delta. Under the direction of JOHN I PARIWONO, JACUB
RAlS and TRIDOYO KUSUMASTANTO.
Coastal recession has become one of the main issues for c o d and
archipelagic countries. Sea level rise is one of the htors that cause that problem.
Dealing with this phenomenon, a shoreline retreat model based on Geographical
Information System (GIS) was developed to predict the future impact of sea level
rise and sedimentation on coastal area and its existing land use, This impact could
be physical, ecological or ecowmid. Muaraulu island, a small island in
Mahakam Delta is selected as the study area. The model developed in this study is
based on Hennecke et al. mdel(2004) with major d i i c a t i o n in sedimentation
The difference fiom Hennecke model is sedimentation component was added as
the negative component of the sea level rise, the model is dynamic and using local
sea level rise data. In addition, economic analysis and policy options in order to
gain the optimal land use management of the study area are also included in the
model.
Analyses of tidal data and field observation show that there is a tendency
of sea level rise within the study area. The analysis also shows that the rate of sea
level rise is higher than sedimentation, indicating that the shoreline retreat will
occur in the Muaraulu coast. Simulatiun using the model that was develop in this
study support this phenomenon. The result of the model based on worst and
best scenario, estimates that for the next 10 years there will k 1.83 - 41.57 m
shoreline retreat, 1.90 - 45.63 ha shrimp ponds loss, 1 -44 - 78.77 ha inundation
of mangrove area and the total profit loss of shrimp pond industry abut
Rp 16,260,000,- - Rp 355,000,000,-. The simulation also shows that the sea level
rise and sedimentation have significant impact on shrimp ponds industry but
insignificant on the traditional capture fisheries. T k implementation of the policy
scenarios within the study area indicate that the silvo-fisheries scenario which
managing 10 % of the island for shrimp pods, including improvement of the
shrimp seed quality, show the best l a d use management. The scenario indicates
the increasing rehabilitation cost but give tbe highest Net Present Value (NPY).
Results of the shoreline retreat model indicate that the model can be applied as a
tool for analyzing sustainable land use management for the delta area, especially
for shrimp pond industry.