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4.4 Aid Modality
The grant aid to Timor-Leste in 2015 will be provided mostly in the form of off-budget project support. As of 2014, sector program support is not in place.
It is notable that the Direct Budget Support Program was launched in 2014 on the basis of guiding principles from the New Deal. This program supports capacity building and strengthening the Ministry
of Finance within its planning framework and clearly stated priorities.
4.5 Predictability
Up to present, multi-year projections of external assistance are not very reliable. Each of the past years has shown a downward trend in future projections of
DPs’ support see Chart 1. However, actual disbursements by DPs remain at a fairly constant level, since the projected amounts of ODA has
increased over time. As shown in the Chart 3, the external assistance grant of 2013 was projected as US75.2 million in the 2011 State Budget, US128.8 million in the 2012 State Budget, and US203.4
million in the 2013 State Budget. As such, DPs have difficulty in providing accurate multi-year projections, in part due to their single year budget cycles and input ODA data after concluding project
agreements.
Source: Budget Books 2011-2013 Planned Disbursement, Aid Transparency Portal 2013 Actual Disbursement
Even in one-year future projections of external assistance, discrepancies are observed between planned and actual disbursement; actual disbursements are often larger than planned disbursements see the Chart
4 . As such, the absence of accurate information on DPs’ funding expectations limits the Government’s
ability to conduct budget planning, especially medium-term planning and macro-economic analysis on a consolidated basis.
US Milli on
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Source: Budget Books Planned Disbursement from 2011-2013, Aid Transparency Portal, 17 August 2014 dataset Actual Disbursement 2013 and Planned Disbursement 2014 and 2015.
Part 5: Development Assistance Projects to Timor-Leste in 2013
5.1 External Assistance by RDTL Beneficiary Institutions Grant Off Budget
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