Climate change Summary of the current situation

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1.7 Climate change

Southeast Asia is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change; in particular, storms, floods, water scarcity and sea- level rise. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC in 2007 pointed out the changes taking place in Southeast Asia’s climate, including rising temperatures, increases in the number of hot days and nights and decreases in the number of cold days and nights Barker, 2007. Other studies indicate that precipitation is reducing and sea levels are rising by 1–3 mm every year ADB, 2009. These observations are supported by national data presented in chapter 3 showing temperature increases over the past 50 years and notable changes in the numbers of hot and cold days and nights. Patterns of precipitation and the timing of the seasons are becoming more unpredictable, and there is a marked increase in the frequency and severity of floods, droughts and storms. The Philippines and Viet Nam are experiencing increasingly frequent and severe storms and typhoons. Flooding is a major risk in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam, while Indonesia, Myanmar and Viet Nam are highly vulnerable to the impacts of sea-level rise World Bank, 2009. In a global study of 50 cities, five of the seven cities identified as at “extreme risk” to climate change are located in the ASEAN region 7 Maplecroft, 2013. Climate change presents a major risk to economic development across the region. It is expected to reduce the availability of clean water, negatively impact agricultural yields, biodiversity and the availability of forest products and cause greater incidence of diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever. These impacts will endanger the livelihoods of millions of people, particularly rural populations who depend directly on forests, agriculture and other natural resources. Climate change is projected to cause economic losses of 230 billion 8 each year by 2100, equivalent to 6.7 percent of the region’s gross domestic product GDP. This is more than twice the projected global average loss of 2.6 percent, indicating that Southeast Asia will be more seriously impacted by climate change than other regions ADB, 2011.

1.8 Forests and climate change mitigation and adaptation