L.A. Greening et al. r Energy Economics 23 2001 153᎐178 159
This procedure captures not only changes in fuel mix, but also changes in generation technologies and capacity utilization, and improvements in generation
efficiencies. Similar assumptions were not made for the emissions coefficients of other
primary fuels. The carbon emissions coefficients for these fuels were held constant over the entire period of analysis. We must acknowledge that emissions for other
primary fuels have changed over time due to changes in grades of fuel, however, these changes are expected to be small and data allowing for evaluation of such
changes are not available. This simplification means that the emissions index term, R
, which in the broader methodological framework would capture changes in
i jt
emissions from other fuels, is restricted to only changes in emissions from electrical generation.
3. Discussion of results
Tables 1᎐6 present the results for all of the countries in this analysis of residential energy consumption. Table 1 provides the cumulative results for the
AWD decomposition of aggregate carbon intensity. Table 2 presents estimates of Ž
elasticities of some of the key variables energy consumption, aggregate carbon .
intensity, carbon emissions and energy intensity with respect to a consumption
Table 1 Cumulative percent changes in aggregate carbon intensity, primary fuel mix for electricity generation,
final fuel mix, energy intensity, end-use structure, and residual terms of the decomposition of carbon Ž
emissions from residential for 10 OECD countries for the period 1970᎐1993 shown in total percent .
change from 1970 Country
Aggregate Primary fuel
Final Energy
End-use Residual
carbon mix for
fuel mix intensity
structure intensity
electricity
a
Denmark y
26.6 y
6.10 0.40
y 40.38
30.79 y
0.14
b
Finland 28.13
y 22.19
61.60 y
35.76 29.97
y 0.83
c
France y
11.35 y
12.82 y
14.02 y
4.74 26.05
y 1.51
Ž .
Germany West 0.18
y 19.58
y 6.59
y 14.29
54.70 0.58
Italy 45.14
2.39 y
10.63 1.28
53.04 2.33
Japan 94.11
y 21.82
2.82 69.84
39.64 1.81
Norway y
71.27 y
3.93 y
76.14 y
17.03 64.07
y 7.93
Sweden y
71.76 y
19.78 y
66.10 y
47.69 28.50
54.48 United Kingdom
y 16.03
y 17.07
y 17.78
y 6.57
32.39 y
0.43 United States
y 7.85
y 7.27
5.89 y
27.10 20.19
6.98
a
Data for Denmark were only available after 1972; total period of analysis reflects 1972᎐1993.
b
Data for Finland and the UK were only available between 1970 and 1992; total period of analysis reflects 1970᎐1992.
c
Data for France were only available between 1975 and 1992, total period of analysis reflects 1975᎐1992.
L.A. Greening
et al.
r Energy
Economics 23
2001 153
᎐ 178
160
Table 2 Ž
. Elasticities with respect to the own-price energy of energy, aggregate carbon intensity, carbon emissions, energy intensity, percentage change in composite
energy price, elasticity of structure with respect to income, and percentage change in per capita household expenditures as a proxy for household income Country
Energy with Aggregate
Carbon Energy
Percentage Structure
Percentage respect to
carbon emissions with
intensity with change in
with respect change in per
energy price intensity with
respect to respect to
composite to income
capita income respect to
energy price energy price
energy price over the
energy price over the
period of period of
analysis analysis
a
Denmark y
0.327 y
0.303 y
0.082 y
0.504 4.82
0.864 1.49
b d
d
Finland 0.039
0.249 y
0.249 y
0.438 4.55
0.882 2.50
c d
d d
France y
3.058 1.692
1.925 0.683
y 0.72
0.557 2.46
d d
Ž .
Germany West 1.872
0.013 y
1.558 y
1.104 0.61
0.710 2.70
d d
d d
Italy 0.460
0.393 0.025
0.013 4.16
0.606 3.08
d d
d d
Japan 51.692
34.255 y
12.463 27.278
0.09 0.369
3.96
d
Norway 0.758
y 1.988
y 0.066
y 0.304
2.66 0.832
2.62 Sweden
y 0.237
y 1.134
y 0.202
y 0.589
4.72 0.900
1.22
b d
d d
d
United Kingdom y
1.394 1.255
1.345 0.490
y 0.66
0.601 2.24
d
United States 0.140
y 0.168
y 0.155
y 0.644
2.11 0.274
2.93
a
Data for Denmark were only available after 1972; total period of analysis reflects 1972᎐1993.
b
Data for Finland and the UK were only available between 1970 and 1992; total period of analysis reflects 1970᎐1992.
c
Data for France were only available between 1975 and 1992, total period of analysis reflects 1975᎐1992.
d
Statistically insignificant at the 10 level.
L.A. Greening et al. r Energy Economics 23 2001 153᎐178 161
Table 3 Geometric mean of changes in the aggregate carbon intensity, primary fuel mix for electricity
generation, final fuel mix, energy intensity, end-use structure, and residual terms of the decomposition of carbon emissions from residential energy consumption for 10 OECD countries for the period
Ž .
1970᎐1993 shown in percent per annum Country
Aggregate Primary fuel
Final fuel Energy
End-use Residual
carbon mix for
mix intensity
structure intensity
Electricity
a
Denmark 1970᎐72
NrA NrA
NrA NrA
NrA NrA
1972᎐79 0.71
0.30 0.64
y 2.42
2.35 y
0.09 1979᎐85
y 2.71
y 0.28
y 0.26
y 3.34
1.09 0.11
1985᎐93 y
2.40 y
0.83 y
0.31 y
1.76 0.51
y 0.02
1972᎐93 y
1.46 y
0.30 0.02
y 2.43
1.29 y
0.01
b
Finland 1970᎐73
6.87 y
0.05 4.76
y 0.87
2.95 0.01
1973᎐79 2.96
0.39 3.48
y 3.14
2.30 0.02
1979᎐85 y
0.44 y
3.06 2.30
y 1.50
2.08 y
0.16 1985᎐93
y 1.41
y 1.22
y 0.01
y 1.90
1.76 y
0.01 1972᎐93
1.13 y
1.13 2.21
y 1.99
2.16 y
0.04
c
France 1970᎐75
NrA NrA
NrA NrA
NrA NrA
1975᎐79 1.50
y 0.46
0.22 y
0.21 1.97
y 0.01
1979᎐85 y
1.56 y
1.10 y
3.04 1.20
1.41 0.04
1985᎐92 y
1.22 y
0.74 0.36
y 1.59
1.00 y
0.24 1972᎐92
y 0.71
y 0.80
y 0.88
y 0.29
1.37 y
0.09 Ž
. Germany West
1970᎐73 2.30
y 0.64
y 0.81
0.08 3.51
0.19 1973᎐79
0.88 y
1.03 y
0.02 y
0.94 2.92
0.00 1979᎐85
y 1.63
y 1.27
y 0.07
y 2.03
1.76 0.01
1985᎐93 y
0.26 y
0.75 y
0.48 0.29
0.70 y
0.01 1972᎐93
0.01 y
0.94 y
0.30 y
0.67 1.92
0.03 Italy
1970᎐73 5.75
0.73 y
0.58 2.23
3.05 0.23
1973᎐79 2.02
0.11 y
0.02 y
0.42 2.20
0.15 1979᎐85
y 0.04
y 0.03
y 0.46
y 1.21
1.62 0.05
1985᎐93 1.10
y 0.04
y 0.82
0.56 1.36
0.05 1970᎐93
1.63 0.10
y 0.49
0.06 1.87
0.10 Japan
1970᎐73 7.52
y 0.50
0.13 5.67
1.89 0.23
1973᎐79 4.07
y 1.15
0.38 3.00
1.86 y
0.03 1979᎐85
y 0.32
y 1.79
0.04 0.33
1.08 0.03
1985᎐93 2.86
y 0.67
y 0.02
2.11 1.29
0.14 1972᎐93
2.93 y
1.06 0.12
2.33 1.46
0.08 Norway
1970᎐73 2.56
y 0.47
1.48 y
2.39 4.04
0.00 1973᎐79
y 4.02
y 0.06
y 5.40
y 0.56
2.15 y
0.06 1979᎐85
y 7.76
0.29 y
8.55 y
1.96 2.56
0.03 1985᎐93
y 7.13
y 0.49
y 7.31
0.49 1.22
y 1.00
1970᎐93 y
5.28 y
0.17 y
6.04 y
0.81 2.18
y 0.36
L.A. Greening et al. r Energy Economics 23 2001 153᎐178 162
Ž .
Table 3 Continued
Country Aggregate
Primary fuel Final fuel
Energy End-use
Residual carbon
mix for mix
intensity structure
intensity Electricity
Sweden 1970᎐73
y 1.66
y 2.34
2.05 y
3.15 1.88
0.00 1973᎐79
y 2.60
0.23 y
0.94 y
2.51 1.13
y 0.50
1979᎐85 y
8.88 y
2.30 y
4.91 y
3.44 1.55
0.03 1985᎐92
y 6.04
y 0.30
y 9.33
y 2.33
0.44 5.96
1970᎐93 y
5.35 y
0.95 y
4.59 y
2.78 1.10
1.91
b
United Kingdom 1970᎐73
NrA NrA
NrA NrA
NrA NrA
1973᎐79 y
0.72 y
0.36 y
1.57 y
0.52 1.77
0.00 1979᎐85
y 1.60
y 1.28
y 0.90
y 0.81
1.40 y
0.01 1985᎐93
y 0.34
y 1.05
y 0.39
0.22 0.93
y 0.04
1970᎐93 y
0.83 y
0.89 y
0.93 y
0.32 1.34
y 0.02
United States 1970᎐73
2.81 y
0.02 0.72
y 0.09
1.00 1.18
1973᎐79 y
1.01 y
0.20 y
0.17 y
1.63 0.98
0.01 1979᎐85
y 1.15
y 0.18
0.00 y
1.87 0.45
0.46 1985᎐93
y 0.43
y 0.65
0.57 y
1.25 0.86
0.05 1970᎐93
y 0.35
y 0.33
0.25 y
1.36 0.80
0.29
a
Data for Denmark were only available after 1972; total period of analysis reflects 1972᎐1993.
b
Data for Finland and the UK were only available between 1970 and 1992; total period of analysis reflects 1970᎐1992.
c
Data for France were only available between 1975 and 1992, total period of analysis reflects 1975᎐1992.
weighted, composite price of residential energy, and structure with respect to Ž
. income average household expenditures are used as a proxy for this variable . This
allows evaluation of the role of price and income in determining the changes in these variables over the period of analysis. Table 3 presents the geometric means
of the growth rates of aggregate carbon intensity and each of the index terms of our aggregate carbon decomposition. Tables 4᎐6 present the end-use shares of
final energy consumption for the residential sector, the fuel shares of final energy consumption, and the fuel shares for primary energy used in the generation of
electricity.
Four periods of time are used to present the results on Tables 3᎐6. These four periods were chosen to correspond to four different periods in world energy
Ž . markets: 1 1970 through 1973, a period of relatively low energy prices just prior to
Ž . the first oil embargo; 2 a period of generally increasing energy prices from 1973
Ž . through 1979; 3 1979 through 1985, a period of even higher energy prices after
Ž . the second oil shock; and 4 1985 through 1993, a period of fluctuating energy
prices but in all cases lower than the two previous periods. In our previous analyses of aggregate carbon emissions from manufacturing, personal transportation and
freight, energy prices affected both activity and intensity measures to one extent or
L.A. Greening et al. r Energy Economics 23 2001 153᎐178 163
Table 4 End-use shares for residential final energy consumption in 10 OECD countries over the period
1970᎐1993 Country
Space Water
Cooking Lighting
Major Other
heating heating
appliances appliances
a
Denmark 1972
74.3 17.7
2.2 1.3
2.6 1.9
1974 NrA
NrA NrA
NrA NrA
NrA 1980
68.9 20.3
2.5 1.8
4.4 2.0
1986 68.1
19.1 2.8
2.4 5.0
2.6 1993
63.0 22.1
3.3 2.7
5.9 3.0
b
Finland 1970
83.4 10.2
2.7 1.2
2.2 0.3
1974 75.5
14.9 2.8
1.7 4.6
0.4 1980
67.7 19.1
2.6 2.6
7.2 0.9
1986 66.2
17.9 2.5
3.4 8.1
1.9 1993
63.0 17.8
2.3 4.0
8.6 4.3
c
France 1970
NrA NrA
NrA NrA
NrA NrA
1975 77.1
11.1 5.2
1.0 4.4
1.2 1980
77.3 10.1
5.0 1.1
4.9 1.6
1986 75.6
10.7 4.8
1.3 5.7
1.9 72.3
11.6 5.5
1.9 6.5
2.2 Ž
. Germany West
1970 83.7
9.1 3.5
0.8 2.0
0.0 1974
82.4 9.5
3.1 0.9
3.9 0.1
1980 78.0
12.3 2.6
1.1 5.3
0.6 1986
78.8 10.9
2.2 1.2
4.6 2.3
1993 76.7
11.4 1.8
1.4 4.4
4.2 Italy
1970 72.3
11.2 10.0
1.4 4.0
1.2 1974
74.9 9.8
8.0 1.5
4.7 1.2
1980 71.3
10.8 7.7
2.4 6.4
1.5 1986
71.4 10.4
6.9 3.2
6.5 1.6
1993 69.8
10.8 6.3
3.7 7.1
2.2 Japan
1970 37.6
26.7 13.8
4.0 11.9
8.0 1974
30.0 31.6
14.2 4.1
11.4 8.5
1980 27.9
32.6 12.1
4.9 14.4
8.2 1986
30.7 31.7
9.9 4.7
12.5 10.5
1993 29.1
31.8 8.6
4.7 12.7
13.0 Norway
1970 66.1
19.9 3.6
4.4 4.7
1.3 1974
63.3 20.1
3.2 5.5
6.2 1.7
1980 64.3
18.2 2.6
5.5 6.3
3.1 1986
63.9 18.7
2.2 6.4
6.8 2.0
1993 63.7
18.5 2.3
6.9 6.7
2.0
Ž another. The effect, however, varied with the end use Greening et al., 1996,
. 1998a,c .
L.A. Greening et al. r Energy Economics 23 2001 153᎐178 164
Ž .
Table 4 Continued
Country Space
Water Cooking
Lighting Major
Other heating
heating appliances
appliances Sweden
1970 70.7
20.5 2.5
1.5 3.8
1.1 1974
30.7 58.6
6.2 4.4
15.3 0.0
1980 64.7
22.4 2.3
2.3 6.5
1.8 1986
65.9 18.8
2.1 2.4
6.2 4.5
1993 53.7
25.6 2.9
3.5 7.8
14.4
b
United Kingdom 1970
NrA NrA
NrA NrA
NrA NrA
1974 61.6
24.4 6.7
2.3 2.5
2.4 1980
59.3 24.3
7.0 2.9
4.9 2.5
1986 59.6
24.0 5.6
3.4 4.8
2.5 1993
61.7 22.8
4.5 3.4
5.1 2.6
United States 1970
68.8 15.4
4.5 2.6
6.4 2.3
1974 65.9
16.2 4.5
2.7 8.4
2.3 1980
62.4 16.7
4.6 3.2
9.9 3.2
1986 60.7
15.8 4.8
3.4 10.8
4.5 1993
58.2 16.4
4.6 3.5
10.3 7.0
a
Data for Denmark were only available after 1972; total period of analysis reflects 1972᎐1993.
b
Data for Finland and the UK were only available between 1970 and 1992; total period of analysis reflects 1970᎐1992.
c
Data for France were only available between 1975 and 1992, total period of analysis reflects 1975᎐1992.
Examination of our results indicates that residential consumers in countries, where aggregate carbon intensity declined over the analysis period, do have some
sensitivity to changes in energy prices. However, this relationship is not universal. Since the residential sector has been the target of a number of conservation
programs during the period of analysis, declines in energy consumption may also be attributed to those programs. Disentangling declines in energy consumption or
emissions levels as a result of those programs from price-induced declines is not possible with the aggregate data used in this analysis. Generally, however, increases
Ž in energy prices do appear to somewhat retard increases in emissions and energy
. consumption , and promote improvements in energy intensity, i.e. energy intensity
declines in response to increases in energy price. For all of the countries the income effect, as demonstrated by changes in structure and the elasticity of this
variable with respect to changes in income, appears to outweigh the effects of energy prices. However, as per capita income increases across our sample of
countries, increases in emissions resulting from a shift in structure decline. Gener- ally, consumers in countries with the greatest increases in per capita income over
Ž .
the period of analysis have the lowest responses income elasticities to changes in income. This could be considered evidence of satiation of the demand for energy
services, i.e. there are limits to the amount of energy services that can be
L.A. Greening et al. r Energy Economics 23 2001 153᎐178 165
Table 5 Fuel shares of final energy use by the residential sector in 10 OECD countries over the period
Ž .
1970᎐1993 percent of total final energy Country
Oil Gas
Coal and Biomass
District heat Electricity
other solid fuels
Denmark 1972
69.6 1.9
0.5 1.2
18.5 8.2
1974 66.6
2.0 0.3
1.1 18.7
11.1 1980
60.2 1.9
1.1 4.7
18.3 13.8
1986 45.3
3.7 0.6
7.7 25.4
17.3 1993
24.8 10.9
0.6 9.1
34.3 20.3
Finland 1970
34.0 0.1
3.7 48.5
6.8 6.8
1974 31.5
0.1 2.6
42.2 10.6
12.9 1980
34.9 0.1
2.2 20.8
20.9 21.2
1986 21.6
0.0 0.8
19.2 29.3
29.0 1992
20.9 0.0
0.3 15.9
28.8 34.0
France 1973
43.7 20.2
1.0 0.0
2.6 32.4
1975 56.7
15.0 14.8
0.0 2.5
11.1 1980
43.6 18.6
8.3 12.7
2.4 14.5
1986 30.8
23.8 5.0
18.3 2.3
19.8 1992
25.5 25.8
2.6 16.5
5.4 24.2
Ž .
Germany West 1970
50.5 6.9
29.2 0.0
2.7 10.8
1974 55.7
12.3 16.1
0.0 2.9
13.1 1980
50.5 21.1
8.6 0.0
3.1 16.8
1986 46.5
25.7 6.8
0.0 3.7
17.2 1993
38.7 34.5
4.3 0.0
4.2 18.3
Italy 1970
71.7 10.7
3.7 4.9
0.0 8.9
1974 68.4
17.0 1.6
2.8 0.0
10.1 1980
56.7 25.7
1.1 2.5
0.0 14.0
1986 45.6
35.5 0.8
2.7 0.0
15.3 1993
51.7 30.0
0.8 2.7
0.0 14.8
Japan 1970
45.2 16.3
9.4 3.6
0.0 25.6
1974 47.1
17.9 3.8
1.9 0.0
29.3 1980
44.9 18.8
1.0 0.7
0.1 34.6
1986 45.8
18.9 0.4
0.4 0.1
34.5 1993
42.8 19.0
0.1 0.2
0.1 37.8
Norway 1970
35.2 0.1
3.3 11.0
0.0 50.1
1974 30.1
0.1 2.2
9.7 0.0
58.0 1980
25.4 0.0
1.0 12.3
0.0 61.3
1986 16.6
0.0 0.5
11.7 0.3
70.9 1993
7.8 0.0
0.0 14.3
0.6 77.3
L.A. Greening et al. r Energy Economics 23 2001 153᎐178 166
Ž .
Table 5 Continued
Country Oil
Gas Coal and
Biomass District heat
Electricity other solid
fuels Sweden
1970 71.2
1.2 1.3
7.6 7.3
11.4 1974
43.9 2.2
0.7 1.5
25.3 26.3
1980 52.9
0.5 0.1
8.6 14.0
23.9 1986
26.2 0.5
0.0 13.3
20.1 40.0
1993 7.2
1.2 0.0
17.3 28.1
46.1 United Kingdom
1970 3.2
16.5 46.7
0.0 0.0
33.5 1974
10.0 36.4
32.4 0.0
0.0 21.3
1980 6.9
54.3 19.3
0.0 0.0
19.5 1986
5.4 59.9
14.7 0.0
0.0 19.9
1993 5.8
66.4 8.2
0.0 0.0
19.6 United States
1970 27.3
50.6 1.6
4.1 0.0
16.4 1974
26.9 48.5
1.0 3.7
0.0 19.8
1980 19.1
47.4 0.6
8.5 0.0
24.4 1986
18.2 43.8
0.7 9.1
0.0 28.2
1993 14.1
48.5 0.5
5.3 0.0
31.6
consumed, and this provides partial support for the concept that energy consump-
7
Ž .
tion is ‘quasi-homothetic’ Greening and Greene, 1998 .
3.1. Comparison across countries of cumulati
¨
e changes Table 1 presents the cumulative results of our analysis across the entire period
of analysis. Unlike aggregate carbon measures for other end uses, this measure for residential energy consumption exhibits greater variability. The greatest reductions
in aggregate carbon intensity were observed for Sweden, Norway and Denmark, where the declines ranged from over 71 to over 26. The greatest increases
occurred in Japan, Italy and Finland, where increases ranged from slightly over
Ž 94 to slightly over 28. The other four countries France, West Germany, the
. UK and the US exhibit levels of change, either increases or decreases, without this
degree of variability. The sources of declines or increases in aggregate carbon intensity can be
attributed to one of four factors, which vary in relative importance across the 10
7
The majority of consumer demand models for fuel assume homothetic preferences, i.e. doubling the Ž
. quantity of an energy service doubles utility Deaton and Muelbauer, 1980 . As a result of the satiation
effect for energy services, this assumption may result in an over-estimation of the demand for fuel. Probably a better specification assumes quasi-homothecity, where a fixed cost or minimum level of
expenditure is assumed. The variable share of energy expenditure as a share of income then declines as income increases. This results in a non-linear expenditure path, which flattens as income increases.
L.A. Greening et al. r Energy Economics 23 2001 153᎐178 167
OECD countries. For Sweden and Norway, shifts towards less-carbon intensive final fuel mixes and primary fuel mixes for the generation of electricity, provided
Table 6 Ž
Fuel shares for electricity generation in 10 OECD countries over the period 1970᎐1993 percent of total
a
. primary inputs
Country Oil
Gas Coal
Biomass Nuclear
Hydro Other
renewables Denmark
1972 78.2
0.0 21.7
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
1974 69.8
0.0 30.2
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
1980 17.5
0.0 78.7
3.7 0.0
0.0 0.0
1986 8.9
1.6 84.3
5.1 0.0
0.0 0.2
1993 5.0
5.0 85.0
3.4 0.0
0.0 1.5
Finland 1970
15.7 0.7
23.5 3.9
0.0 56.2
0.0 1974
16.4 0.3
18.9 5.2
0.0 59.2
0.0 1980
7.7 4.2
30.6 4.6
21.1 31.8
0.0 1986
2.8 3.0
11.3 7.1
45.1 30.8
0.0 1993
1.2 5.1
10.0 9.8
40.5 33.4
0.0 France
1970 23.2
5.0 45.8
0.7 5.9
19.2 0.2
1974 40.8
6.2 28.0
0.5 10.7
13.6 0.1
1980 20.1
2.6 33.7
0.3 31.5
11.7 0.1
1986 1.6
0.5 10.7
0.2 80.5
6.5 0.1
1993 0.4
0.5 5.2
0.2 88.6
5.1 0.1
Ž .
Germany West 1970
12.9 4.4
73.0 1.0
2.2 6.5
0.0 1974
8.8 15.1
66.3 1.1
3.5 5.2
0.0 1980
6.3 14.9
61.9 1.1
11.0 4.7
0.0 1986
2.6 6.3
57.5 0.9
28.2 4.4
0.0 1993
2.7 9.1
51.1 1.4
32.5 3.2
0.0 Italy
1970 55.1
5.9 7.8
1.4 3.7
15.6 10.5
1974 68.1
3.2 5.8
1.1 3.1
11.3 7.5
1980 63.5
5.5 11.7
0.4 1.6
10.9 6.4
1986 45.3
13.5 18.6
0.4 6.2
9.6 6.5
1992 54.9
18.9 10.3
0.3 0.0
8.3 7.3
Japan 1970
63.2 1.7
24.1 0.0
1.7 9.3
0.0 1974
70.9 3.6
12.3 0.0
5.5 7.6
0.1 1980
51.9 13.4
9.0 0.0
18.5 6.5
0.7 1986
29.3 18.7
14.8 0.0
31.3 5.0
0.8 1993
23.4 18.7
16.2 0.0
36.2 4.7
0.8 Norway
1970 1.8
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
98.2 0.0
1974 0.1
0.0 0.2
0.0 0.0
99.6 0.0
1980 0.4
0.0 0.1
0.0 0.0
99.5 0.0
1986 1.0
0.0 0.1
0.2 0.0
98.7 0.0
1993 0.0
0.0 0.2
0.3 0.0
99.5 0.0
L.A. Greening et al. r Energy Economics 23 2001 153᎐178 168
Ž .
Table 6 Continued
Country Oil
Gas Coal
Biomass Nuclear
Hydro Other
renewables Sweden
1970 51.1
0.0 1.0
0.0 0.2
47.6 0.0
1974 33.3
0.0 1.0
0.1 6.4
59.1 0.0
1980 19.0
0.0 0.2
0.0 46.8
34.4 0.0
1986 1.6
0.3 0.8
0.0 76.2
21.9 0.0
1993 0.9
0.5 0.9
y 0.7
70.2 28.2
0.0 United Kingdom
1970 21.1
0.3 67.6
0.0 10.4
0.6 0.0
1974 26.7
3.6 56.7
0.0 12.5
0.5 0.0
1980 11.2
0.8 73.7
0.0 13.8
0.5 0.0
1986 10.4
0.7 66.7
0.0 21.7
0.6 0.0
1993 6.2
9.2 51.3
0.0 32.8
0.5 0.0
United States 1970
13.9 26.2
51.7 0.0
1.8 6.2
0.1 1974
18.0 18.1
50.1 0.0
7.3 6.0
0.5 1980
11.3 15.8
54.6 0.0
13.0 4.5
0.9 1986
5.7 9.9
59.1 0.1
19.4 4.3
1.6 1993
3.5 8.7
56.1 1.6
24.4 3.5
2.3
a
Due to differences in accounting for self or auto production of electricity generated from renewables among countries, fuel shares for this purpose may actually vary slightly from values reported
here.
substantial contributions toward the decline in aggregate carbon intensity. In addition for Sweden, declines attributable to decreases of nearly 50 in energy
intensity further contributed. Similarly, decreases of slightly over 17 in energy intensity re-enforced the declines in aggregate carbon intensity for Norway. How-
ever, shifts towards a more carbon-intensive activity mix in both countries offset the declines attributable to the other factors. For Denmark, a decrease of over
40 in energy intensity provided the majority of the decline in carbon intensity. This decline was also largely offset by shifts toward a more carbon-intensive activity
mix.
As with the sources of declines in aggregate carbon intensity, the sources of increases in aggregate carbon intensity for Japan, Italy and Finland are attributed
to different sources. For Japan, the largest contributor to increases in aggregate carbon intensity was a nearly 70 increase in energy intensity, which was re-en-
forced by a shift towards a more carbon-intensive activity mix or end-use structure of nearly 40. Increases in energy intensity in Japan are largely the result of
Ž .
increases in ‘western-style’ appliances e.g. larger refrigerators and an increase in the penetration of central heating. Increases in aggregate carbon intensity in Italy,
also, resulted from over a 53 shift towards a more carbon-intensive activity mix, but these were offset by a nearly 11 decrease resulting from a shift towards a less
carbon-intensive final fuel mix. Finally, increases in Finland’s aggregate carbon intensity resulted from a nearly 62 shift towards a more carbon-intensive final
L.A. Greening et al. r Energy Economics 23 2001 153᎐178 169
fuel mix, which was once again re-enforced by an almost 30 shift towards a more carbon-intensive activity mix.
The remaining countries of France, West Germany, the UK and the US also exhibit a variety of sources of decreases and increases in aggregate carbon
intensity. For all four countries decreases in aggregate carbon intensity resulted from shifts towards a less-carbon intensive primary fuel mix for the generation of
electricity, and towards a less carbon-intensive final fuel mix. These shifts were re-enforced by declines in energy intensity. However, for all of these countries,
shifts towards a more carbon-intensive activity mix substantially offset these declines.
3.2. Effects of changes in energy prices on carbon emissions, aggregate carbon intensity, and energy intensity
As with our previous analyses of carbon emissions from other end uses, we are interested in the effects of energy prices on moderating growth rates of energy
consumption, carbon emissions, and aggregate carbon intensity, while promoting decreases in energy intensity. Tables 2 and 3 provide two different means of
examining changes in these factors in response to energy prices. Table 2 provides own-price elasticities with respect to a composite energy price for energy consump-
tion, aggregate carbon intensity, carbon emissions, and energy intensity. The percentage change of price over the forecast horizon is also included. The 10
significance level of the elasticity estimates of own-price and structure with respect to income are also noted. Table 3 provides the values for each of the factors of
attribution for our four pricing periods, and for the period of analysis in its entirety.
Although increases in energy prices are assumed to result in decreases in energy consumption and carbon emissions, this relationship is not clearly demonstrated by
Ž our results. For five of the countries Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, and the
. US there does appear to be a correlation between increases in energy prices and
decreases in some of the relevant measures. However, this relationship is not uniform with respect to all of the variables, and this may be the result of the data,
or other factors, which could not be controlled for. With the exception of Italy, price increases of over 2 over the period of analysis, resulted in at least a 0.06
decline in carbon emissions for every 1 increase in price. Across countries this relationship varied, and is reflective of the types of energy-using technologies
implemented, climate and other factors.
Examination of Table 3 indicates that periods of high price do have some role in promoting declines in aggregate carbon intensity. The price effects in promoting
energy intensity do not appear as pronounced as they are for both manufacturing Ž
. and personal transportation Greening et al., 1996, 1998a . Only six of the coun-
tries exhibit increases in the rate of decline in aggregate carbon intensity from that source during periods of higher energy prices. Furthermore, half of the countries
Ž .
West Germany, Italy, Japan, Norway and the UK exhibit increases in energy
L.A. Greening et al. r Energy Economics 23 2001 153᎐178 170
Ž .
intensity during the period of lower prices 1985᎐1993 . This appears to counter some of the arguments concerning the irreversibility of efficiency improvements
Ž .
Haas and Schipper, 1998 . These increases though in energy intensity may actually reflect the introduction of larger appliances with more energy-consuming features
into the energy stock. Aggregate data do not allow us to identify that type of change, and control for it. Only through the use micro-level data, with extensive
detail concerning an individual household’s appliance stock over a period of time, allows for this type of analysis.
Decreases in aggregate carbon intensity, also, occur as a result of shifts towards less carbon-intensive mixes for primary fuels for the generation of electricity and
Ž .
Ž delivered final energy fuels. During periods of high energy prices 1973᎐1979, and
. 1979᎐1985 , these shifts were most pronounced for Finland, France, Germany
Ž .
West , Japan, Norway, Sweden, and the UK. In the case of France, Norway, Sweden and the UK, these shifts towards a less carbon-intensive fuel mix, along
with reductions in energy intensity, resulted in reductions in aggregate carbon intensity.
3.3. Effects of changes in income on acti
¨
ity mix or structure For all of the countries in this analysis, aggregate carbon intensity increased as a
Ž .
result of shifts towards a more carbon-intensive activity mix Table 1 . Table 2 indicates that a 1 increase in income resulted in between an approximately 0.2
to a 0.9 increase in aggregate carbon intensity as a result of shifts towards a more carbon-intensive activity mix. However, the magnitude of those shifts generally
declined with an increase in the percentage change in income over the period of analysis, i.e. generally, the greater the change in income the smaller the resulting
shift in activity mix. Examination of Table 3 indicates that during periods of high energy prices, structural shifts towards more carbon-intensive activity mixes de-
clined in every country. However, these shifts still occurred.
Table 4 provides an overview of the mix of residential end-use activities at various points in time. The share of energy consumption for space heating
consistently declined through time for the majority of countries. However, the rate of decline of energy consumption for this end use varies across countries as a result
of the penetration rate of central heating. Central heating utilizes more energy, and as this form of heating increases the share of energy consumption for space
Ž .
heating will increase assuming no decreases in energy intensity IEA, 1997 . However, during the period of analysis, increases in energy consumption for this
end use were often offset by improvements in insulation or the implementation of various other energy conservation measures for building shells.
8
The shares of energy consumption for water heating, and cooking remained either relatively
8
A number of countries during the period of analysis implemented more stringent building codes, Ž
. which mandated these types of measures IEA, 1997 . As a result, newer vintage dwellings, where
central heating may be installed, exhibit a lower energy intensity than older buildings, which are retrofit with this technology.
L.A. Greening et al. r Energy Economics 23 2001 153᎐178 171
constant or declined across all of the countries. The share of energy consumption for lighting in all countries has increased. This is reflective of an increase in the
Ž .
average square footage of dwellings in these countries IEA, 1997 . Similarly, the share of energy consumption for major appliances has increased over the period of
analysis. This is the result of increased penetration of appliances, such as clothes washers, dryers and refrigerators with freezers.
Perhaps, the most interesting change, and possibly predictive of future energy consumption trends in the residential sector, is the increase in the consumption of
energy in the ‘other’ category. Increases in all of the countries ranging from 1 Ž
. Ž
. Denmark to 13 Sweden for this category are indicated. Whereas, other end
uses are reaching saturation, the number and variety of personal and small household appliances continues to grow. As the population of a country becomes
more affluent, this category of energy consumption is expected to grow even more rapidly than observed in the countries of Sweden, Japan and the US. Consumption
in this category appears little affected by price, but is definitely driven by increases in income.
3.4. Effects of shifts in primary fuel mix for the generation of electricity and final fuel mix on aggregate carbon intensity
Examination of Tables 5 and 6 indicates the role that fuel switching for both final energy consumption and primary energy for the generation of electricity has
had to contributing to the declines in aggregate carbon intensity for the residential sector. In all of the countries, there has been a pronounced shift away from the use
Ž .
of fuel oil, coal and other solid fuels in final energy consumption Table 5 . Correspondingly, there has been an increase in the consumption of both natural
Ž .
gas and electricity. Those countries Sweden, Norway and Denmark with the largest declines in aggregate carbon intensity also had the greatest reductions in
the use of fuel oil. Fuel oil as a share of final energy consumption declined by over 64 in Sweden, and by nearly 45 and nearly 28 for Denmark and Norway,
respectively. Since fuel oil is used for the two largest end uses, space conditioning and water heating, a shift away from this carbon-intensive fuel, particularly when
replaced by lower carbon electricity in Sweden and Norway has had a significant effect on aggregate carbon intensity. Similarly, a reduction in coal as a share of
final energy in the UK resulted in an almost 18 reduction in aggregate carbon intensity. Of the 10 countries, six exhibit declines in the carbon intensity of the
final fuel mix, of which the majority can be explained by shifts away from fuel oil and solid fuels towards a greater use of natural gas and electricity. The rates of
these shifts appear unaffected by increases or decreases in energy prices.
Table 6 provides examines the effects of shifts in the primary fuel mix used in the generation of electricity. With the exception of Italy, all of the countries
exhibited declines in aggregate carbon intensity as a result of shifts in the primary fuel mix used in the generation of electricity. Those shifts were primarily away
from the use of oil and coal toward a greater dependence on natural gas, and
Ž nuclear power. Those countries Finland, Japan, Sweden, West Germany and the
L.A. Greening et al. r Energy Economics 23 2001 153᎐178 172
. UK with the greatest declines in aggregate carbon from this source substantially
shifted power generation to nuclear power. The other four countries exhibited smaller declines, but they, too, shifted from a dependence on oil towards less
carbon-intensive means of generation. These shifts seem unaffected by energy prices, and continued during periods of both high and low energy prices.
4. Conclusions
