82 C. Line Carpentier et al. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 82 2000 73–88
Table 3 Technological coefficients for settlement farms cattle production systems in Acre, by level of technology
Technical coefficients Extensive
Intensive Herd dynamics
Calving rate 50
67 Mortality rate
1 year 10
6 2 years
5 3
2 years 3
2 Cullingdiscard rate
Cows 10
Bull 6
12 Herd inputs
Feed supplements elephant grass, forage kganimal 20
Salt kganimalyear 10
Mineral salt kganimalyear 18.25
Animal health Aftosa vaccinationsanimalyear
2 2
Brucellosis vaccinationsfemale calfyear 1
Rabies vaccinationsanimalyear 1
Carrapaciticida ml of butoxanimalyear; to control ticks 5
10 Worm control mlanimalyear
10 25
Antibiotics Mata bicheira cubic centimeteranimalyear; to control internal parasites
0.03 Terramicina mlyear to
1 2
the herd 0.06
0.13 Labor for herd management
Milking man-dayslactating cowmonth 0.9
1.5 Other livestock man-daysanimal unitmonth
0.3 0.6
Herd production Meat production
Calf weight kg 60
75 Weight of fattened steer kg
210 225
Milk production Milk production dry lday
2.5 4.5
Milk production wet lday 3
6 Lactation period daysyear
180 240
man-days requires a chain saw and 0.2 man-days re- quires an ox. The remaining is just labor. Returns per
cubic meter or per hectare, excluding labor and equip- ment costs but including transportation costs, is R95.
4. Simulations and results
This section presents four simulations represent- ing different types of intensification along with their
resulting land uses and incomes. 4.1. Simulations
The validated model reflecting 1994 policy, socio- economic, technological, and biophysical conditions
is used to simulate the environmental and income implications of four different types of intensification
available or that could be made available to farmers. The model contains all types of intensification and
simulations are generated by “turning on” some or all intensification types, thus making them available to
farmers.
C. Line Carpentier et al. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 82 2000 73–88 83
Intensification has typically been viewed as inten- sifying activities on cultivated or cleared land. Types
of intensification on cleared land are added one at a time to generate the first three simulations for the
well-situated farmer described in Section 3.2. Extrac- tion of timber is not allowed for these simulations.
First, the model is constrained to use only the ex- tensive low-productivity activities; all intensification
types are turned off. Second, all types of intensifica- tion are available to choose for non-livestock annuals
and perennials activities on cleared land. Then in- tensification is available on all cleared land activities
annuals, perennials, pasture and cattle production. For the fourth simulation, all intensification types
on the cleared land are turned on, in addition to the low-impact forest management on forested land. In all
simulations with intensification technologies turned on, the farmer is free to choose extensive or intensive
systems for some or all of the activities. Adoption of particular land uses and technology levels indicates
that given the model constraints, these activities are the most profitable over the 25-year period.
4.2. Land-use results 4.2.1. No intensification available
This simulation reflects the situation of farmers that do not have access to intensification information
because of inadequate extension services, lack of edu- cation making farmers unable to comprehend avail-
able information, or farm remoteness. This would not typically be the case for the well-situated farmer
modeled here. Under this technological starvation de- forestation begins slowly, accelerates somewhat from
about year 3 to year 15, and then slows substantially but does not stop. Fig. 4 shows how land uses change
from the initial land-use conditions to replace forest with pasture and fallow. The area in pasture expands
dramatically between year 3 and about year 10, and remains constant thereafter, though the composition
of this pasture changes as older pastures are put into fallow rehabilitation cycles and new pastures are es-
tablished. Extensive pasture has a useful life of only 11 years, thus pasture starts being rehabilitated in year
14 and cycles in and out as batches of a pasture’s use- ful life expires. At year 25 pasture reaches 31 ha and
forest 9 ha. Annual crops increase slightly and then stay constant at 5 ha throughout the planning horizon.
Manioc for consumption is the only perennial crop grown here. The initial fallow disappears at the be-
ginning of the simulation and then reappears in year 12, to reach 11 ha at year 25. This “no intensification”
simulation thus retains a fair amount of biomass in the forest and fallow land uses, although the lot is
dominated by pasture at year 25. This simulation has farmers sell on an average 130 man-days off the farm,
although about 40 man-days are hired-in during the peak months of February, April, and May. Therefore,
even with extensive low-productivity technologies, activities on cultivated land generate greater revenues
than Brazil nut extraction. Revenues average R1800 per year and are generated mostly from sales of
annual crops, milk, and labor.
4.2.2. Intensification available on non-livestock activities on cleared land
This simulation could result from lack of access to pasture and cattle technologies, either because of lack
of access to the farm as above, or because anti-cattle policies prevent research and diffusion of intensive
cattle production technologies. Intensified annual rice, corn, and bean production in monoculture are adopted
when intensification is allowed on non-livestock ac- tivities. Perennials other than manioc are still not
adopted. This adoption indicates that intensified an- nual crop production is now more profitable than the
extensive pasture and livestock activities. As a result, 7 ha, the maximum amount of hectares in annuals
that can be maintained given the labor constraint, are planted. Pasture is still grown but less than in
the technological starvation simulation. At year 25, 28 ha of pasture are present Fig. 5, mainly because
pasture requires labor in different months than the an- nuals. A cycle of fallow rotation is initiated earlier to
sustain the annual production the intensified system presented here does not use commercial fertilizers.
The deforestation rate is initially higher than when no intensification is available, thus less forest remains
at year 25, i.e. 8 ha, compared to 9 ha above. The deforestation rate increases because 1 more capital
is available earlier on to hire labor to deforest and 2 future incomes from the cleared land are higher than
before. About 2 ha of pasture are rehabilitated in any given year after year 10. Revenues average approxi-
mately R2900 and sold labor is approximately 100 man-days, while hired labor averaged 38 man-days
84 C. Line Carpentier et al. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 82 2000 73–88
after the first 4 years. Two-thirds of the income is generated from livestock activities and 20 from
annuals.
4.2.3. Intensification available on all activities on cleared land
This simulation could be considered the baseline for the well-situated farmers modeled here because
1 farmers are not currently allowed to extract timber from their forest reserves, 2 the low-impact forest
management technology is still at the pilot level, and 3 well-situated farmers are likely to have access to
intensification information on all technologies. Other farm types more distant from the market or with less
farmer education may not have such access, so there baselines may lie somewhere between the first three
simulations.
When allowed to choose the intensity level of all activities on cleared land including pasture and cat-
tle production, the modeled farmer overwhelmingly selects the intensified technologies on all activities.
Intensified pasture and livestock activities are more profitable than intensified annuals or perennials and
85 of the farm is in pasture at year 25. Fig. 6 depicts the land-use patterns associated with this sim-
ulation. Although more cash is available to hire labor to slash and burn the forest, and the larger stream of
revenues from the cleared land should provide incen- tive for higher deforestation rates, the deforestation
rate is slower than under the limited intensification simulations on cleared land because labor demand
for pasture establishment and maintenance limits the rate at which the forest can be cleared. However, that
rate is maintained throughout the simulation and the forest disappears completely at year 25. Extended
out to 35 years, the simulation suggests that fallow continues to increase at approximately 0.20 ha ev-
ery 2 years and plateaus at 5.5 ha in year 35. The only brake on deforestation under this simulation is
the labor constraint; without constraint on labor, the forest disappears within 19 years Carpentier et al.,
2000a.
Not all activities and land uses are homogeneous. Mainly because of differences in labor demand and
the months in which this labor is needed, the same activities are practiced at different levels of intensity.
For example, in almost any year, some annuals are grown with the extensive and intensified technologies
Fig. 6. Also, some extensive pasture is maintained throughout for the bull and the ox. Finally, fallow ap-
pears between years 5 and 12, disappears completely, and reappears in year 18, after which it keeps on in-
creasing to provide the nutrients to support annual crop production. Even after the forest has completely dis-
appeared, it is still cheaper to grow the family’s basic food rice, corn, beans, and manioc, which requires
fallowing some land for a few years, than to buy the food at market prices plus transportation costs.
Taken together, financial flows from on-farm agri- cultural and extractive activities and off-farm sales of
adult male labor are substantial. Savings during the first few years allow for subsequent investments that
boost production and consumption in later years. Large investments negative savings are required in
years 5, 9, and 11 to expand intensified pasture areas and purchase higher-quality cattle. Farm profits peak
at about year 13, at a level of approximately R9000 per year, and appear to begin to decline or stabilize af-
ter the end of the 25-year time horizon presented here. Sold labor averages approximately 125 man-days
and hired labor about 48 man-days after the first 3 years.
4.2.4. Intensification allowed on all activities on cleared and forested land
This simulation makes available an intensive ac- tivity on the forested land in addition to the intensi-
fication technologies of the previous simulation. This intensification technology is the pilot low-impact
forest management conducted by EMBRAPA. As mentioned earlier, before this technology is available
to farmers three obstacles have to be surmounted: 1 the technology must be perfected and passed on to
farmers, 2 farmers must be willing to manage their forests as common property, and 3 the law must be
changed to legalize the activity.
Fig. 7 presents the land uses associated with in- tensification on both sides of the farm, cleared and
forested land. Clearly given 1994 prices and costs, intensification on the forested land reduces the defor-
estation rate and preserves more forest at year 25 than the other intensification simulations. Land uses under
this simulation are closer to the simulation with avail- able intensification on all cleared land than the no and
limited intensification on cleared land. At year 25, 47 ha are in pasture, 9 ha in forest, and 4 ha in annuals
C. Line Carpentier et al. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 82 2000 73–88 85
and perennials. Thus, compared to intensification on cleared land, the annual area is reduced and fallow is
eliminated completely, reflecting the higher opportu- nity cost of the land under this simulation. Intensified
pasture is still the dominant land use. Intensifying on both sides of the farm, at least for the type of inten-
sification presented here, takes some pressure off the forest but does not stop deforestation. The average
rate of deforestation for intensification on cleared land only is 1.72, compared to 1.38 for intensification
on both cleared and forested land. The rate of defor- estation decreases over time for all simulations, but it
decreases more quickly for the simulation with intensi- fication on all land. The average deforestation rate for
the last 5 years is 1.5 for the intensification on cleared land and 0.8 for the simulation with intensification on
all land. At that rate, the forest would not disappear for another 10.5 years, or in 35.5 years instead of 25
years. The hired and sold labor patterns vary more drastically under this simulation. Hired labor is ap-
proximately 28 man-days after 3 years, increases to 40 man-days between years 4 and 9, and drops back
down to 20 man-days starting in year 10. Sold labor is 140 man-days the first 3 years, drops to 90 man-days
from year 4 to 13, and increase to 125 thereafter. Large investments are made in years 5, 9, and 11. The
average income approximates 9500, composed of dairy activities 85, annuals 9, extraction activi-
ties 4, and labor 2. The difference between the simulation with intensification on all cleared land is
Fig. 8. Income and forest preserved at year 25 by level and type of intensification.
that its deforestation rate is maintained until all forest is gone, while the deforestation rate of the other simu-
lations slow down earlier on. The main difference with the no and limited intensification on cleared land
simulations is not how much forest is preserved, but rather the elimination of fallow and degraded pasture,
lower annuals, and more pasture. For instance, the no and limited intensification on cleared land have 14 and
17 ha of fallow and degraded land, respectively. These hectares constitute additional pasture under the simu-
lation with intensification on all land. In addition, this simulation has half as much annuals as the no and lim-
ited intensification on cleared land. Sensitivity analy- sis with 1996 prices reveals that 20 ha of forest would
be preserved with the higher timber and coffee prices farmers were offered in 1996. Even in 1996, however,
income from the cleared land is larger than from the forested land since the forest keeps going down.
4.3. Farm income results Of critical interest to settlement farmers is the
profit stream they can hope to earn from the collec- tions of on- and off-farm activities they choose. Fig.
8 charts the net present value NPV of the income streams generated by the four simulations set out
above. Clearly, there is a trade-off between income and forest preserved as the farm is intensified on the
cleared land. As intensification increases on cleared land, larger incomes are generated: R9020 for the
86 C. Line Carpentier et al. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 82 2000 73–88
technological starvation, R19 813 for intensifica- tion on non-livestock cleared land, and R50 635 for
intensification on all cleared land simulations. The corresponding hectares of forest preserved at year 25
for these simulations are 9, 8, and 0 ha, respectively.
Intensification on the forested land, on the other hand, provides a gain in both income and forest pre-
served in year 25. The NPV of the income stream over the 25-year period is R55 000, and 9 ha of forest re-
main in year 25. Sensitivity analysis with 1996 prices increases this income further to R90 000. Thus high
coffee and timber prices provide a win-win situation in which both farmers’ income and amount of forest
preserved increase.
The average number of man-days hired-in and sold off-farm over the years sum over the months in
each year under each simulation indicate the cyclical nature of labor demand, the profitability of on-farm
activity compared to on-going wages, and relative re- turns to labor. The simulation with intensification on
all cleared land hired-in the most man-days, approxi- mately 50, while the simulation with intensification
on both cleared and forested land hired-in the least, approximately 30 man-days. More labor was needed
under the simulation with intensification on all cleared land to support the sustained deforestation rate and
the intensive pasture system. Under the last simula- tion, more labor was needed during the early years
to extract timber, deforest, and establish pasture, but declined once less timber remained to be extracted,
the pasture was established, and deforestation slowed down. Of the total 180 man-days that could have been
sold off-farm, the well-situated farm sold the least under the intensification on non-livestock activities on
cleared land simulation and the most under the no in- tensification simulation. That is returns to labor under
no intensification were generally lower than on going wages. Moreover, intensive annual production selected
under the intensification on non-livestock activities simulation generated large enough returns to main-
tain labor on-farm and is more labor intensive than pasture production or pasture and timber extraction.
5. Conclusion and policy implications
