UNTR 130723 Company Update
Company Update
United Tractors
1H13 operational results
23-Jul-13
Ticker
UNTR
Price
16,250
Target Price
17,000
Recommendation
HOLD
Upside (Downside)
5%
Market Cap (Rptn)
60.6
Issued Share (mn share)
3.7
Shareholders
%
Astra International
59.5%
Public
40.5%
United Tractors (UNTR) June sales heavy equipment sales volume came in at 326
units or 18.7% MoM lower from 401 units in May 2013. The decrease was largely due
to 33% lower mining heavy equipment sales volume of 116 units from 172 units a
month earlier. With less visible improvement in 2Q13 heavy equipment sales volume
figure, the company needs to post a stable sales volume of 416 units per month if
UNTR want to maintain its heavy equipment sales volume target of 5,000 units this
year. In the mean time, we still maintain our operational data assumptions, hence,
our target for UNTR. We believe UNTR’s healthy balance sheet and its proven
experiences will be the company’s main advantage that will help UNTR to overcome
current condition, Hold.
2012
2013F
Revenue (RPbn)
55,954
51,988
EBITDA (Rpbn)
10,936
9,915
Net Profit (Rpbn)
5,780
4,711
EPS (Rp)
1,551
1,264
Gross Margin (%)
18.8
17.1
EBITDA Margin (%)
19.5
19.1
Net Margin (%)
10.3
9.1
Net Gearing (x)
0.1
0.1
Heavy equipment sales volume dropped 18.7% MoM. UNTR June sales heavy
equipment sales volume came in at 326 units or 18.7% MoM lower from 401 units in
May 2013. The decrease was largely due to 33% lower mining heavy equipment sales
volume of 116 units from 172 units a month earlier. Despite weak heavy equipment
sales volume, UNTR’s coal mining contractor business posted an impressive coal
production volume of 9.6mn tons, or the highest record in UNTR’s history. This was also
come with overburden removal volume of 76.4mn bcm, a 8.4% MoM higher from
70.5mn bcm in May 2013. Meanwhile, UNTR’s coal mining business posted the lowest
monthly sales volume since September 2011 at 311 ktons or 14.3% MoM lower from
363k tons. Declining coal prices appear to be the main hurdle for UNTR in accelerating
its coal sales volume last month.
Expects soft 2Q13 performance. With such operational figures, the company’s 2Q13
HE sales volume was 1,180 units, 7.2% QoQ lower from 1,272 units in 1Q13, this would
affect UNTR’s 2Q13 financial performance despite higher coal production volume
during the period. Nevertheless, weak Rupiah exchange rate may help UNTR’s revenue
figure albeit will be lower as compared to a year earlier. Furthermore, we also expect
lower margin in 2Q13 on the back of increasing cost from coal mining contracting
business amid slower margin contribution from heavy equipment business.
Needs more efforts to achieve target. With less visible improvement in 2Q13 heavy
equipment sales volume figure, the company needs to post a stable sales volume of
416 units per month if UNTR want to maintain its heavy equipment sales volume target
of 5,000 units this year. Therefore, the downside risk is imminent if the company’s
monthly sales volumes in July onwards come way below the expected average sales
volume target.
Bagus Hananto
[email protected]
Maintain Hold. In the mean time, we still maintain our operational data assumptions,
hence, our target for UNTR. We believe UNTR’s healthy balance sheet and its proven
experiences will be the company’s main advantage that will help UNTR to overcome
current condition, Hold.
Year-end 31-Dec
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
37,323.9
55,052.6
55,953.9
51,987.7
53,694.4
EBITDA (Rpbn)
7,797.3
10,579.0
10,935.7
9,914.6
11,700.5
Net profit (Rp bn)
3,872.9
5,900.9
5,779.7
4,711.1
5,834.9
1,039
1,583
1,551
1,264
1,566
1
52
-2
-18
24
437
455
735
620
506
Revenue (Rp bn)
EPS (Rp)
EPS growth (%)
DPS (Rp)
Dividend yield (%)
P/E Ratio (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
2.7
2.8
4.5
3.8
3.1
15.6
10.3
10.5
12.9
10.4
8.2
5.1
5.2
5.9
0.0
Return on Equity (%)
25.8
27.8
20.7
15.3
17.2
Net Gearing (%)
29.7
-7.0
10.3
8.2
0.0
United Tractors
Exh. 1. 1H13 volume
1H11
Heavy Equipment (unit)
Agro
903
Construction
540
Forestry
241
Mining
2547
Total
4,231
1H13
% YoY
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
% QoQ
May-13
Jun-13
% MoM
489
557
196
1,177
2,419
-45.8%
3.2%
-18.8%
-53.8%
-42.8%
391
257
74
501
1,224
231
200
26
291
747
287
228
111
646
1,272
202
329
85
531
1,180
-29.7%
44.0%
-23.3%
-17.7%
-7.2%
68
128
32
172
401
52
101
26
114
326
-40.9%
-22.4%
-65.3%
-42.0%
-39.0%
Mining Contractor (mn ton)
Coal
44.4
50.0
Overburden
407.2
413.6
12.6%
1.6%
24.2
226.7
25.6
221.1
23.7
200.2
26.3
213.4
11.0%
6.6%
8.5
70.5
9.6
76.4
5.8%
-2.5%
-1.7%
-54.6%
-28.7%
734
741
1,475
501
552
1,053
680
491
1,171
785
213
998
15.4%
-56.6%
-14.8%
309
54
363
261
50
311
-31.7%
-25.5%
-28.6%
Coal Mining (th ton)
Coal PMM
1,491
Coal TTA
1,552
Total
3,043
1,465
704
2,169
Source : The Company
2
United Tractors
Rpbn
Revenue
COGS
Gross Profit
Opr Profit
EBITDA
Net int inc/(exp)
Gain/(loss) forex
Other inc/(exp)
Pre-tax Profit
Tax
Minority Int.
Net Profit
Rpbn
Cash & Deposits
Other curr assets
Net fixed assets
Other assets
Total assets
ST debts
Other curr liab
LT debts
Other LT liabilities
Minority interest
Total Liabilities
Shareholders Equity
Net debt/(cash)
Valuation
PER (x)
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
37,324
55,053
55,954
51,988
53,694
30,528
44,859
45,433
43,090
43,583
6,796
10,194
10,521
8,898
10,111
5,163
7,615
7,566
6,146
7,532
7,797
10,579
10,936
9,915
11,700
(140)
(39)
(59)
25
94
22
120
0
0
0
17
88
(60)
(60)
(60)
5,061
(1,187)
(2)
3,873
7,785
(1,885)
1
5,901
7,447
(1,693)
26
5,780
6,110
7,565
(1,390)
(1,720)
(10)
(10)
4,711
5,835
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
1,343
7,135
3,995
2,353
3,578
14,190
18,490
18,053
17,031
17,424
13,261
19,396
25,820
27,051
27,882
907
1,419
2,433
2,433
2,433
29,701
46,440
50,301
48,868
51,316
191
4
15
148
163
9,728
14,926
11,312
9,316
9,015
3,160
2,717
4,339
2,391
1,195
456
1,289
2,334
2,334
2,334
29
1,183
2,665
2,665
2,665
13,565
20,120
20,665
16,854
15,373
16,136
26,320
29,636
32,013
35,943
4,798
-1,831
3,062
2,630
-264
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
15.6
10.3
10.5
12.9
10.4
PBV (x)
3.8
2.3
2.0
1.9
1.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.2
5.1
5.2
5.9
0.0
Rpbn
Net Profit
Depr / Amort
CF's from oprs
Capex
Others
CF's from investing
Net change in debt
Others
CF's from financing
Net cash flow
Cash at BoY
Cash at EoY
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
3,873
5,901
5,780
4,711
5,835
2,635
2,964
3,369
3,769
4,169
6,508
8,865
9,149
8,480
10,004
-4,060
-9,098
-9,793
-5,000
-5,000
-307
-512
-1,014
0
0
-9,610 -10,807
-5,000
-5,000
-4,367
430
-443
1,622
-1,948
-1,195
-1,700
6,270
62
-2,333
-1,905
-1,270
5,827
1,684
-4,281
-3,100
871
5,082
25
-801
1,903
2,769
1,343
7,135
3,995
2,353
1,343
7,135
3,995
2,353
3,578
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
18.2%
18.5%
18.8%
17.1%
18.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.5%
11.8%
14.0%
20.9%
19.2%
19.5%
19.1%
21.8%
10.4%
10.7%
10.3%
9.1%
10.9%
25.8%
27.8%
20.7%
15.3%
17.2%
14.3%
15.5%
11.9%
9.5%
11.6%
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.3
0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
77.1
33.3
32.9
26.7
32.7
Profitability
Gross Margins (%)
Opr Margins (%)
EBITDA Margins (%)
Net Margins (%)
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
Current ratio (x)
Net. Debt/Equity (x)
Int. Coverage (x)
3
United Tractors
RESEARCH
Bagus Hananto
[email protected]
(62-21) 3190-1777 ext. 219
EQUITY SALES
Dick Hermanto
[email protected]
(62-21) 3162-063
Maria Fransisca
[email protected]
(62-21) 3162-062
Agi Susanti
[email protected]
(62-21) 3162-075
Siti Qobtiah
[email protected]
(62-21) 3162-065
Pandu Endra
[email protected]
(62-21) 3190-1777
Supardi
[email protected]
(62-21) 3162-025
PT ONIX Sekuritas
Deutsche Bank Building #15-04
Jl. Imam Bonjol No. 80
Jakarta 10310 Indonesia
Phone. (62-21) 3190-1777 (hunting)
Fax. (62-21) 3190-1616
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4
United Tractors
1H13 operational results
23-Jul-13
Ticker
UNTR
Price
16,250
Target Price
17,000
Recommendation
HOLD
Upside (Downside)
5%
Market Cap (Rptn)
60.6
Issued Share (mn share)
3.7
Shareholders
%
Astra International
59.5%
Public
40.5%
United Tractors (UNTR) June sales heavy equipment sales volume came in at 326
units or 18.7% MoM lower from 401 units in May 2013. The decrease was largely due
to 33% lower mining heavy equipment sales volume of 116 units from 172 units a
month earlier. With less visible improvement in 2Q13 heavy equipment sales volume
figure, the company needs to post a stable sales volume of 416 units per month if
UNTR want to maintain its heavy equipment sales volume target of 5,000 units this
year. In the mean time, we still maintain our operational data assumptions, hence,
our target for UNTR. We believe UNTR’s healthy balance sheet and its proven
experiences will be the company’s main advantage that will help UNTR to overcome
current condition, Hold.
2012
2013F
Revenue (RPbn)
55,954
51,988
EBITDA (Rpbn)
10,936
9,915
Net Profit (Rpbn)
5,780
4,711
EPS (Rp)
1,551
1,264
Gross Margin (%)
18.8
17.1
EBITDA Margin (%)
19.5
19.1
Net Margin (%)
10.3
9.1
Net Gearing (x)
0.1
0.1
Heavy equipment sales volume dropped 18.7% MoM. UNTR June sales heavy
equipment sales volume came in at 326 units or 18.7% MoM lower from 401 units in
May 2013. The decrease was largely due to 33% lower mining heavy equipment sales
volume of 116 units from 172 units a month earlier. Despite weak heavy equipment
sales volume, UNTR’s coal mining contractor business posted an impressive coal
production volume of 9.6mn tons, or the highest record in UNTR’s history. This was also
come with overburden removal volume of 76.4mn bcm, a 8.4% MoM higher from
70.5mn bcm in May 2013. Meanwhile, UNTR’s coal mining business posted the lowest
monthly sales volume since September 2011 at 311 ktons or 14.3% MoM lower from
363k tons. Declining coal prices appear to be the main hurdle for UNTR in accelerating
its coal sales volume last month.
Expects soft 2Q13 performance. With such operational figures, the company’s 2Q13
HE sales volume was 1,180 units, 7.2% QoQ lower from 1,272 units in 1Q13, this would
affect UNTR’s 2Q13 financial performance despite higher coal production volume
during the period. Nevertheless, weak Rupiah exchange rate may help UNTR’s revenue
figure albeit will be lower as compared to a year earlier. Furthermore, we also expect
lower margin in 2Q13 on the back of increasing cost from coal mining contracting
business amid slower margin contribution from heavy equipment business.
Needs more efforts to achieve target. With less visible improvement in 2Q13 heavy
equipment sales volume figure, the company needs to post a stable sales volume of
416 units per month if UNTR want to maintain its heavy equipment sales volume target
of 5,000 units this year. Therefore, the downside risk is imminent if the company’s
monthly sales volumes in July onwards come way below the expected average sales
volume target.
Bagus Hananto
[email protected]
Maintain Hold. In the mean time, we still maintain our operational data assumptions,
hence, our target for UNTR. We believe UNTR’s healthy balance sheet and its proven
experiences will be the company’s main advantage that will help UNTR to overcome
current condition, Hold.
Year-end 31-Dec
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
37,323.9
55,052.6
55,953.9
51,987.7
53,694.4
EBITDA (Rpbn)
7,797.3
10,579.0
10,935.7
9,914.6
11,700.5
Net profit (Rp bn)
3,872.9
5,900.9
5,779.7
4,711.1
5,834.9
1,039
1,583
1,551
1,264
1,566
1
52
-2
-18
24
437
455
735
620
506
Revenue (Rp bn)
EPS (Rp)
EPS growth (%)
DPS (Rp)
Dividend yield (%)
P/E Ratio (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
2.7
2.8
4.5
3.8
3.1
15.6
10.3
10.5
12.9
10.4
8.2
5.1
5.2
5.9
0.0
Return on Equity (%)
25.8
27.8
20.7
15.3
17.2
Net Gearing (%)
29.7
-7.0
10.3
8.2
0.0
United Tractors
Exh. 1. 1H13 volume
1H11
Heavy Equipment (unit)
Agro
903
Construction
540
Forestry
241
Mining
2547
Total
4,231
1H13
% YoY
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
% QoQ
May-13
Jun-13
% MoM
489
557
196
1,177
2,419
-45.8%
3.2%
-18.8%
-53.8%
-42.8%
391
257
74
501
1,224
231
200
26
291
747
287
228
111
646
1,272
202
329
85
531
1,180
-29.7%
44.0%
-23.3%
-17.7%
-7.2%
68
128
32
172
401
52
101
26
114
326
-40.9%
-22.4%
-65.3%
-42.0%
-39.0%
Mining Contractor (mn ton)
Coal
44.4
50.0
Overburden
407.2
413.6
12.6%
1.6%
24.2
226.7
25.6
221.1
23.7
200.2
26.3
213.4
11.0%
6.6%
8.5
70.5
9.6
76.4
5.8%
-2.5%
-1.7%
-54.6%
-28.7%
734
741
1,475
501
552
1,053
680
491
1,171
785
213
998
15.4%
-56.6%
-14.8%
309
54
363
261
50
311
-31.7%
-25.5%
-28.6%
Coal Mining (th ton)
Coal PMM
1,491
Coal TTA
1,552
Total
3,043
1,465
704
2,169
Source : The Company
2
United Tractors
Rpbn
Revenue
COGS
Gross Profit
Opr Profit
EBITDA
Net int inc/(exp)
Gain/(loss) forex
Other inc/(exp)
Pre-tax Profit
Tax
Minority Int.
Net Profit
Rpbn
Cash & Deposits
Other curr assets
Net fixed assets
Other assets
Total assets
ST debts
Other curr liab
LT debts
Other LT liabilities
Minority interest
Total Liabilities
Shareholders Equity
Net debt/(cash)
Valuation
PER (x)
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
37,324
55,053
55,954
51,988
53,694
30,528
44,859
45,433
43,090
43,583
6,796
10,194
10,521
8,898
10,111
5,163
7,615
7,566
6,146
7,532
7,797
10,579
10,936
9,915
11,700
(140)
(39)
(59)
25
94
22
120
0
0
0
17
88
(60)
(60)
(60)
5,061
(1,187)
(2)
3,873
7,785
(1,885)
1
5,901
7,447
(1,693)
26
5,780
6,110
7,565
(1,390)
(1,720)
(10)
(10)
4,711
5,835
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
1,343
7,135
3,995
2,353
3,578
14,190
18,490
18,053
17,031
17,424
13,261
19,396
25,820
27,051
27,882
907
1,419
2,433
2,433
2,433
29,701
46,440
50,301
48,868
51,316
191
4
15
148
163
9,728
14,926
11,312
9,316
9,015
3,160
2,717
4,339
2,391
1,195
456
1,289
2,334
2,334
2,334
29
1,183
2,665
2,665
2,665
13,565
20,120
20,665
16,854
15,373
16,136
26,320
29,636
32,013
35,943
4,798
-1,831
3,062
2,630
-264
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
15.6
10.3
10.5
12.9
10.4
PBV (x)
3.8
2.3
2.0
1.9
1.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.2
5.1
5.2
5.9
0.0
Rpbn
Net Profit
Depr / Amort
CF's from oprs
Capex
Others
CF's from investing
Net change in debt
Others
CF's from financing
Net cash flow
Cash at BoY
Cash at EoY
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
3,873
5,901
5,780
4,711
5,835
2,635
2,964
3,369
3,769
4,169
6,508
8,865
9,149
8,480
10,004
-4,060
-9,098
-9,793
-5,000
-5,000
-307
-512
-1,014
0
0
-9,610 -10,807
-5,000
-5,000
-4,367
430
-443
1,622
-1,948
-1,195
-1,700
6,270
62
-2,333
-1,905
-1,270
5,827
1,684
-4,281
-3,100
871
5,082
25
-801
1,903
2,769
1,343
7,135
3,995
2,353
1,343
7,135
3,995
2,353
3,578
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
18.2%
18.5%
18.8%
17.1%
18.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.5%
11.8%
14.0%
20.9%
19.2%
19.5%
19.1%
21.8%
10.4%
10.7%
10.3%
9.1%
10.9%
25.8%
27.8%
20.7%
15.3%
17.2%
14.3%
15.5%
11.9%
9.5%
11.6%
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.3
0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
77.1
33.3
32.9
26.7
32.7
Profitability
Gross Margins (%)
Opr Margins (%)
EBITDA Margins (%)
Net Margins (%)
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
Current ratio (x)
Net. Debt/Equity (x)
Int. Coverage (x)
3
United Tractors
RESEARCH
Bagus Hananto
[email protected]
(62-21) 3190-1777 ext. 219
EQUITY SALES
Dick Hermanto
[email protected]
(62-21) 3162-063
Maria Fransisca
[email protected]
(62-21) 3162-062
Agi Susanti
[email protected]
(62-21) 3162-075
Siti Qobtiah
[email protected]
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