Grain and Feed Update Rabat Morocco 9 13 2017
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
POLICY
Required Report - public distribution
Date: 9/13/2017
GAIN Report Number: MO1707
Morocco
Grain and Feed Update
Common Wheat Imports Likely to Remain Closed until 2018
Approved By:
Morgan Haas
Prepared By:
Mohamed Fardaoussi
Report Highlights:
Post maintains its earlier wheat and barley forecasts for 2017/18. Customs duties on wheat are expected
to remain at current levels through the end of 2017.
Post:
Rabat
Wheat
Post holds its earlier 2017/18 forecasts for production based on earlier reported official reports and
imports from the United States based on historical minimum demand. Based on current stock levels,
Post expects no changes to Morocco’s current customs duties for common wheat or durum wheat
through December 31, 2017.
Post increases MY and TY trade estimates in 2016/17, based on Morocco’s official trade figures which
are currently available through June. Post maintains its earlier MY 2015/16 estimates, which continue
to reflect Morocco’s official trade figures.
Wheat
Market Begin
Year
Morocco
2015/2016
Jun 2015
USDA
Official
3,308
4,279
Area Harvested
Beginning
Stocks
8,064
Production
4,429
MY Imports*
4,503
TY Imports**
20
TY Imp. from
U.S.
16,772
Total Supply
118
MY Exports
111
TY Exports
800
Feed and
Residual
9,000
FSI
Consumption
9,800
Total
Consumption
6,854
Ending Stocks
16,772
Total
Distribution
2.4377
Yield
0.699
Stocks/Use
Ratio
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)
* MY used for wheat Jun-May
2016/2017
Jun 2016
2017/2018
Jun 2017
New
Post
3,308
4,279
USDA
Official
2,413
6,854
New
Post
2,413
6,808
USDA
Official
3,300
4,542
New
Post
3,321
4,744
8,064
4,383
4,479
10
2,731
5,215
5,191
910
2,731
5,463
5,329
882
5,800
4,800
4,800
0
6,250
4,800
4,800
10
16,726
118
110
800
14,800
58
57
800
15,002
58
56
800
15,142
100
100
800
15,794
100
100
800
9,000
9,400
9,400
9,500
9,500
9,800
10,200
10,200
10,300
10,300
6,808
16,726
4,542
14,800
4,744
15,002
4,742
15,142
5,394
15,794
2.4377
0.695
1.1318
0.472
1.1318
0.465
1.7576
0.496
1.882
0.524
* TY used for wheat July-Jun
Barley
Post maintains its forecasts for 2017/18 and estimates for 2016/17. Post also maintains its earlier import
estimate for TY 2015/16 based on Morocco’s official trade figures.
Barley
Market Begin
Year
Morocco
Area Harvested
2015/2016
Jul 2015
USDA
Official
2,064
2016/2017
Jul 2016
New
Post
USDA
Official
1,208
2,064
Beginning
Stocks
Production
387
958
TY Imp. from
U.S.
Total Supply
0
620
MY Exports
TY Exports
Feed and
Residual
FSI
Consumption
Total
Consumption
Ending Stocks
0
0
2,150
479
0
0
0
1,450
2,150
1,200
400
0
2,358
0
0
1,650
800
2,450
2,200
158
1,259
2,450
208
158
2,358
0.5132
0.072
2,658
0
0
800
2,200
4,609
Total
4,609
Distribution
1.6473
1.6473
Yield
Stocks/Use
0.376
0.376
Ratio
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)
* MY used for barley July-Jun
* TY used for wheat October/September
0
0
1,650
750
3,350
500
0
2,658
750
1,259
0
1,450
1,200
3,350
500
500
2,358
4,609
0
0
2,000
500
400
4,609
158
2,000
479
939
0
1,800
1,259
822
New
Post
158
620
3,400
TY Imports**
USDA
Official
1,800
1,208
387
822
New
Post
1,259
3,400
MY Imports*
2017/2018
Jul 2017
208
2,658
2,358
0.5132
0.072
1.1111
0.085
2,658
1.1111
0.085
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
POLICY
Required Report - public distribution
Date: 9/13/2017
GAIN Report Number: MO1707
Morocco
Grain and Feed Update
Common Wheat Imports Likely to Remain Closed until 2018
Approved By:
Morgan Haas
Prepared By:
Mohamed Fardaoussi
Report Highlights:
Post maintains its earlier wheat and barley forecasts for 2017/18. Customs duties on wheat are expected
to remain at current levels through the end of 2017.
Post:
Rabat
Wheat
Post holds its earlier 2017/18 forecasts for production based on earlier reported official reports and
imports from the United States based on historical minimum demand. Based on current stock levels,
Post expects no changes to Morocco’s current customs duties for common wheat or durum wheat
through December 31, 2017.
Post increases MY and TY trade estimates in 2016/17, based on Morocco’s official trade figures which
are currently available through June. Post maintains its earlier MY 2015/16 estimates, which continue
to reflect Morocco’s official trade figures.
Wheat
Market Begin
Year
Morocco
2015/2016
Jun 2015
USDA
Official
3,308
4,279
Area Harvested
Beginning
Stocks
8,064
Production
4,429
MY Imports*
4,503
TY Imports**
20
TY Imp. from
U.S.
16,772
Total Supply
118
MY Exports
111
TY Exports
800
Feed and
Residual
9,000
FSI
Consumption
9,800
Total
Consumption
6,854
Ending Stocks
16,772
Total
Distribution
2.4377
Yield
0.699
Stocks/Use
Ratio
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)
* MY used for wheat Jun-May
2016/2017
Jun 2016
2017/2018
Jun 2017
New
Post
3,308
4,279
USDA
Official
2,413
6,854
New
Post
2,413
6,808
USDA
Official
3,300
4,542
New
Post
3,321
4,744
8,064
4,383
4,479
10
2,731
5,215
5,191
910
2,731
5,463
5,329
882
5,800
4,800
4,800
0
6,250
4,800
4,800
10
16,726
118
110
800
14,800
58
57
800
15,002
58
56
800
15,142
100
100
800
15,794
100
100
800
9,000
9,400
9,400
9,500
9,500
9,800
10,200
10,200
10,300
10,300
6,808
16,726
4,542
14,800
4,744
15,002
4,742
15,142
5,394
15,794
2.4377
0.695
1.1318
0.472
1.1318
0.465
1.7576
0.496
1.882
0.524
* TY used for wheat July-Jun
Barley
Post maintains its forecasts for 2017/18 and estimates for 2016/17. Post also maintains its earlier import
estimate for TY 2015/16 based on Morocco’s official trade figures.
Barley
Market Begin
Year
Morocco
Area Harvested
2015/2016
Jul 2015
USDA
Official
2,064
2016/2017
Jul 2016
New
Post
USDA
Official
1,208
2,064
Beginning
Stocks
Production
387
958
TY Imp. from
U.S.
Total Supply
0
620
MY Exports
TY Exports
Feed and
Residual
FSI
Consumption
Total
Consumption
Ending Stocks
0
0
2,150
479
0
0
0
1,450
2,150
1,200
400
0
2,358
0
0
1,650
800
2,450
2,200
158
1,259
2,450
208
158
2,358
0.5132
0.072
2,658
0
0
800
2,200
4,609
Total
4,609
Distribution
1.6473
1.6473
Yield
Stocks/Use
0.376
0.376
Ratio
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)
* MY used for barley July-Jun
* TY used for wheat October/September
0
0
1,650
750
3,350
500
0
2,658
750
1,259
0
1,450
1,200
3,350
500
500
2,358
4,609
0
0
2,000
500
400
4,609
158
2,000
479
939
0
1,800
1,259
822
New
Post
158
620
3,400
TY Imports**
USDA
Official
1,800
1,208
387
822
New
Post
1,259
3,400
MY Imports*
2017/2018
Jul 2017
208
2,658
2,358
0.5132
0.072
1.1111
0.085
2,658
1.1111
0.085