Grain and Feed Update Mexico City Mexico 9 14 2017
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
POLICY
Required Report - public distribution
Date: 9/14/2017
GAIN Report Number: MX7031
Mexico
Grain and Feed Update
Slight Bump in Corn Production, Smaller Wheat Harvest
Approved By:
Lashonda McLeod
Prepared By:
Benjamin Juarez and Tim Harrison
Report Highlights:
The market year (MY) 2017/18 wheat production estimate has been revised downward to 3.5 million
metric tons (MMT) based on updated official information from the Mexican government. Rice and
sorghum production forecasts for MY 2017/18 have remained unchanged. MY2016/17 import and
export estimates for corn are revised downward and upward, respectively, while imports and exports are
up slightly for rice, reflecting updated official information.
Post:
Mexico City
WHEAT
Production:
The total wheat production for MY 2017/18 (July to June) has been revised downward from
USDA/Official estimates, reflecting the most recent data from the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock,
Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA). This data includes preliminary final results for
the 2016/17 fall/winter crop cycle, as well as updated information (as of August 31, 2017) of the 2017
spring/summer crop cycle. The reduction is driven by slightly lower than previously estimated planted
and harvested areas. Private sources stated that despite the fact that weather conditions were favorable
during the 2016/17 fall/winter crop cycle, growers in the state of Baja California planted less area than
initially anticipated, triggering a reduction of approximately 100,000 metric tons (MT) in comparison to
the original production estimate. Unattractive wheat prices were apparently the main reason for this
reduction, potentially incentivizing farmers to plant less wheat area and to shift to alternative crops such
as cotton. The Post/New total wheat production and harvested area estimates for MY2016/17 have been
revised slightly upward from the USDA/Official figure, based on preliminary final official data from
SAGARPA.
Stocks:
The MY 2016/17 Post ending stocks estimate was revised upward slightly to 847,000 MT from the
USDA/Official estimate, due to lower than previously estimated domestic production. This was
reflected in the carryover for MY 2017/18. The MY 2017/18 ending stocks estimate was reduced due to
the reduction in estimated domestic production.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Table 1: Mexico, Wheat Production, Supply, and
Demand for MY 2015/16 to MY 2017/18
Wheat
Market Begin Year
Mexico
Area Harvested
Beginning Stocks
Production
MY Imports
TY Imports
TY Imp. from U.S.
Total Supply
MY Exports
TY Exports
Feed and Residual
FSI Consumption
Total Consumption
Ending Stocks
Total Distribution
Yield
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
Jul 2015
USDA Official
New Post
Jul 2016
USDA Official
New Post
Jul 2017
USDA Official
New Post
825
523
3751
4805
4805
2753
9079
1568
1568
400
6600
7000
511
9079
4.5467
825
523
3751
4805
4805
2753
9079
1568
1568
400
6600
7000
511
9079
4.5467
721
511
3884
5370
5370
4042
9765
1119
1119
700
7100
7800
846
9765
5.387
724
511
3885
5370
5370
4042
9766
1119
1119
700
7100
7800
847
9766
5.366
680
846
3650
5200
5200
0
9696
1400
1400
400
7200
7600
696
9696
5.3676
660
847
3550
5200
5200
3650
9597
1400
1400
400
7200
7600
597
9597
5.3788
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)
MX7031 September Grain and Feed Update
Page 2
CORN
Production:
The corn harvested area estimate for MY 2017/18 (October to September) has been revised upward from
USDA/Official estimates to 7.25 million hectares, reflecting updated information from SAGARPA as of
August 31, 2017. SAGARPA has reported that both the pace of planting and crop development have
been normal in the 2017 spring/summer crop cycle. Reportedly, weather conditions were fairly
favorable in June and July, with normal soil moisture and rainfall and without serious damaged from
tropical storm Franklin in the second week of August. Similarly, the total production estimate and area
harvested estimates for MY 2016/17 have been adjusted slightly upward and downward, respectively,
based on final SAGARPA official data.
Trade:
Mexico’s total corn imports estimate for MY 2016/17 has been revised downward to 14.2 MMT, a 2
percent reduction from the USDA/Official estimate, based on official data form SHCP and SAGARPA
for the first eleven months of this marketing year. The export estimate for the same MY 2016/17 was
adjusted upward to 1.6 MMT from USDA/Official estimate, also based on this data.
Stocks:
The Post/New corn ending stocks estimate for MY 2016/17 has been revised downward to 5.4 MMT, as
result of higher than originally estimated exports. This was reflected in the carry over for MY 2017/18,
which was also adjusted downward. This in turn caused a reduction in the ending stocks estimate for
MY 2017/18.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Table 2: Mexico, Corn Production, Supply, and
Demand for MY 2015/16 to MY 2017/18
Corn
Market Begin Year
Mexico
Area Harvested
Beginning Stocks
Production
MY Imports
TY Imports
TY Imp. from U.S.
Total Supply
MY Exports
TY Exports
Feed and Residual
FSI Consumption
Total Consumption
Ending Stocks
Total Distribution
Yield
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
Oct 2015
USDA Official
New Post
Oct 2016
USDA Official
New Post
Oct 2017
USDA Official
New Post
7207
4090
25971
14011
14011
13603
44072
1559
1559
20300
17000
37300
5213
44072
3.6036
7207
4090
25971
14011
14011
13603
44072
1559
1559
20300
17000
37300
5213
44072
3.6036
7500
5213
27400
14500
14500
0
47113
750
750
22000
17900
39900
6463
47113
3.6533
7450
5213
27565
14200
14200
13800
46978
1640
1640
22000
17900
39900
5438
46978
3.7
7200
6463
26000
15500
15500
0
47963
700
700
23000
18000
41000
6263
47963
3.6111
7250
5438
26000
15500
15500
15325
46938
700
700
23000
18000
41000
5238
46938
3.5862
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)
MX7031 September Grain and Feed Update
Page 3
SORGHUM
Production:
The Post/New total sorghum production and harvested area estimates for MY2016/17 have been revised
downward and upward, respectively, from USDA/Official based on updated Mexican government
figures. These statistics include final results of the 2016 spring/summer crop cycle and available
information for the 2016/17 fall/winter crop cycle as of August 31, 2017. According to SAGARPA, the
2016/17 fall/winter crop cycle is about to conclude with some final adjustments expected in production
estimates and area harvested. Private sources estimate that 2016/17 fall/winter crop cycle production
reached approximately 2.6 MMT, which is lower than previous forecasts due to irregular weather
conditions that prevailed during sowing and crop development in Tamaulipas, the main producer state,
during this cycle.
Consumption:
The sorghum total consumption estimate for MY 2016/17 has been revised downward from
USDA/Official figures, based on the most recent information from official sources and reflecting lower
than previously estimated domestic production.
Stocks:
The USDA/Official ending stocks estimate for MY2016/17 has been revised downward based on lower
production than previously expected. This adjustment is reflected in the downward adjustment for MY
2017/18 carryover.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Table 3: Mexico, Sorghum Production, Supply,
and Demand for MY 2015/16 to MY 2017/18
Sorghum
Market Begin Year
Mexico
Area Harvested
Beginning Stocks
Production
MY Imports
TY Imports
TY Imp. from U.S.
Total Supply
MY Exports
TY Exports
Feed and Residual
FSI Consumption
Total Consumption
Ending Stocks
Total Distribution
Yield
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
Oct 2015
USDA Official
New Post
Oct 2016
USDA Official
New Post
Oct 2017
USDA Official
New Post
1678
338
5587
661
661
661
6586
0
0
6200
100
6300
286
6586
3.3296
1678
338
5587
661
661
661
6586
0
0
6200
100
6300
286
6586
3.3296
1450
286
5050
700
700
0
6036
0
0
5750
100
5850
186
6036
3.4828
1460
286
4700
700
700
700
5686
0
0
5450
100
5550
136
5686
3.2192
1700
186
6000
500
500
0
6686
0
0
6300
100
6400
286
6686
3.5294
1700
136
6000
500
500
500
6636
0
0
6300
100
6400
236
6636
3.5294
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)
MX7031 September Grain and Feed Update
Page 4
RICE
Production:
For MY 2016/17, total rice production and harvested area estimates have been revised slightly
downward from the USDA/Official estimate based on updated official data from SAGARPA as of
August 31, 2017. Recently, SAGARPA published the preliminary final data for the 2016/17 fall/winter
crop cycle, which shows a slightly smaller than previously estimated planted area and consequently
lower production level. According to SAGARPA officials, growers have nearly completed their
fall/winter harvest, and it is estimated that the current harvest will produce 82,000 MT of rice. This is
approximately 3 percent lower the previous crop due to the smaller harvested area.
Trade:
The Post/New import and export estimates for MY 2016/17 were revised upward in order to reflect
official data from SAGARPA and SHCP for the first eleven months of the marketing year.
Stocks:
The Post ending stocks estimate for MY2016/17 has been increased to 189,000 MT, because of higher
than expected imports. This is reflected in the upward adjustment for MY 2017/18 carryover, as well.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Table 4: Mexico, Rice Production, Supply, and
Demand for MY 2015/16 to MY 2017/18
Rice, Milled
Market Begin Year
Mexico
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
Oct 2015
USDA Official
New Post
Oct 2016
USDA Official
New Post
Oct 2017
USDA Official
New Post
Area Harvested
Beginning Stocks
Milled Production
Rough Production
Milling Rate (.9999)
MY Imports
TY Imports
TY Imp. from U.S.
Total Supply
MY Exports
TY Exports
Consumption and Residual
Ending Stocks
Total Distribution
Yield (Rough)
40
165
156
227
6870
693
731
647
1014
2
2
885
127
1014
5.675
40
165
156
227
6870
693
731
647
1014
2
2
885
127
1014
5.675
40
127
181
263
6870
800
800
0
1108
55
55
900
153
1108
6.575
39
127
177
258
6870
865
865
725
1169
80
80
900
189
1169
6.6154
40
153
185
269
6870
800
800
0
1138
2
2
910
226
1138
6.725
40
189
185
269
6870
800
800
755
1174
2
2
910
259
1171
6.725
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)
For More Information:
FAS/Mexico Web Site: We are available at www.mexico-usda.com.mx or visit the FAS headquarters'
home page at www.fas.usda.gov for a complete selection of FAS worldwide agricultural reporting.
Other Relevant Reports Submitted by FAS/Mexico
Report
Title of Report
Number
MX7031 September Grain and Feed Update
Date
Submitted
Page 5
MX7024
MX7007
MX7001
MX6031
MX6023
MX6009
MX6004
Mexico Expects Strong Corn Crop Due to Favorable Weather
Average Production Expected as Consumption Growth Slows
Increased Acreage, Good Weather Boost Corn Production
Wheat, Corn, and Sorghum Estimates Down Slightly; New Rice
Program Announced
June 2016 Grain and Feed Update
2016 Grain and Feed Annual Mexico
Grain and Feed January Update Mexico
MX7031 September Grain and Feed Update
6/15/2017
3/14/2017
2/3/2017
9/1/2016
6/6/2016
3/12/2016
1/26/2016
Page 6
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
POLICY
Required Report - public distribution
Date: 9/14/2017
GAIN Report Number: MX7031
Mexico
Grain and Feed Update
Slight Bump in Corn Production, Smaller Wheat Harvest
Approved By:
Lashonda McLeod
Prepared By:
Benjamin Juarez and Tim Harrison
Report Highlights:
The market year (MY) 2017/18 wheat production estimate has been revised downward to 3.5 million
metric tons (MMT) based on updated official information from the Mexican government. Rice and
sorghum production forecasts for MY 2017/18 have remained unchanged. MY2016/17 import and
export estimates for corn are revised downward and upward, respectively, while imports and exports are
up slightly for rice, reflecting updated official information.
Post:
Mexico City
WHEAT
Production:
The total wheat production for MY 2017/18 (July to June) has been revised downward from
USDA/Official estimates, reflecting the most recent data from the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock,
Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA). This data includes preliminary final results for
the 2016/17 fall/winter crop cycle, as well as updated information (as of August 31, 2017) of the 2017
spring/summer crop cycle. The reduction is driven by slightly lower than previously estimated planted
and harvested areas. Private sources stated that despite the fact that weather conditions were favorable
during the 2016/17 fall/winter crop cycle, growers in the state of Baja California planted less area than
initially anticipated, triggering a reduction of approximately 100,000 metric tons (MT) in comparison to
the original production estimate. Unattractive wheat prices were apparently the main reason for this
reduction, potentially incentivizing farmers to plant less wheat area and to shift to alternative crops such
as cotton. The Post/New total wheat production and harvested area estimates for MY2016/17 have been
revised slightly upward from the USDA/Official figure, based on preliminary final official data from
SAGARPA.
Stocks:
The MY 2016/17 Post ending stocks estimate was revised upward slightly to 847,000 MT from the
USDA/Official estimate, due to lower than previously estimated domestic production. This was
reflected in the carryover for MY 2017/18. The MY 2017/18 ending stocks estimate was reduced due to
the reduction in estimated domestic production.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Table 1: Mexico, Wheat Production, Supply, and
Demand for MY 2015/16 to MY 2017/18
Wheat
Market Begin Year
Mexico
Area Harvested
Beginning Stocks
Production
MY Imports
TY Imports
TY Imp. from U.S.
Total Supply
MY Exports
TY Exports
Feed and Residual
FSI Consumption
Total Consumption
Ending Stocks
Total Distribution
Yield
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
Jul 2015
USDA Official
New Post
Jul 2016
USDA Official
New Post
Jul 2017
USDA Official
New Post
825
523
3751
4805
4805
2753
9079
1568
1568
400
6600
7000
511
9079
4.5467
825
523
3751
4805
4805
2753
9079
1568
1568
400
6600
7000
511
9079
4.5467
721
511
3884
5370
5370
4042
9765
1119
1119
700
7100
7800
846
9765
5.387
724
511
3885
5370
5370
4042
9766
1119
1119
700
7100
7800
847
9766
5.366
680
846
3650
5200
5200
0
9696
1400
1400
400
7200
7600
696
9696
5.3676
660
847
3550
5200
5200
3650
9597
1400
1400
400
7200
7600
597
9597
5.3788
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)
MX7031 September Grain and Feed Update
Page 2
CORN
Production:
The corn harvested area estimate for MY 2017/18 (October to September) has been revised upward from
USDA/Official estimates to 7.25 million hectares, reflecting updated information from SAGARPA as of
August 31, 2017. SAGARPA has reported that both the pace of planting and crop development have
been normal in the 2017 spring/summer crop cycle. Reportedly, weather conditions were fairly
favorable in June and July, with normal soil moisture and rainfall and without serious damaged from
tropical storm Franklin in the second week of August. Similarly, the total production estimate and area
harvested estimates for MY 2016/17 have been adjusted slightly upward and downward, respectively,
based on final SAGARPA official data.
Trade:
Mexico’s total corn imports estimate for MY 2016/17 has been revised downward to 14.2 MMT, a 2
percent reduction from the USDA/Official estimate, based on official data form SHCP and SAGARPA
for the first eleven months of this marketing year. The export estimate for the same MY 2016/17 was
adjusted upward to 1.6 MMT from USDA/Official estimate, also based on this data.
Stocks:
The Post/New corn ending stocks estimate for MY 2016/17 has been revised downward to 5.4 MMT, as
result of higher than originally estimated exports. This was reflected in the carry over for MY 2017/18,
which was also adjusted downward. This in turn caused a reduction in the ending stocks estimate for
MY 2017/18.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Table 2: Mexico, Corn Production, Supply, and
Demand for MY 2015/16 to MY 2017/18
Corn
Market Begin Year
Mexico
Area Harvested
Beginning Stocks
Production
MY Imports
TY Imports
TY Imp. from U.S.
Total Supply
MY Exports
TY Exports
Feed and Residual
FSI Consumption
Total Consumption
Ending Stocks
Total Distribution
Yield
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
Oct 2015
USDA Official
New Post
Oct 2016
USDA Official
New Post
Oct 2017
USDA Official
New Post
7207
4090
25971
14011
14011
13603
44072
1559
1559
20300
17000
37300
5213
44072
3.6036
7207
4090
25971
14011
14011
13603
44072
1559
1559
20300
17000
37300
5213
44072
3.6036
7500
5213
27400
14500
14500
0
47113
750
750
22000
17900
39900
6463
47113
3.6533
7450
5213
27565
14200
14200
13800
46978
1640
1640
22000
17900
39900
5438
46978
3.7
7200
6463
26000
15500
15500
0
47963
700
700
23000
18000
41000
6263
47963
3.6111
7250
5438
26000
15500
15500
15325
46938
700
700
23000
18000
41000
5238
46938
3.5862
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)
MX7031 September Grain and Feed Update
Page 3
SORGHUM
Production:
The Post/New total sorghum production and harvested area estimates for MY2016/17 have been revised
downward and upward, respectively, from USDA/Official based on updated Mexican government
figures. These statistics include final results of the 2016 spring/summer crop cycle and available
information for the 2016/17 fall/winter crop cycle as of August 31, 2017. According to SAGARPA, the
2016/17 fall/winter crop cycle is about to conclude with some final adjustments expected in production
estimates and area harvested. Private sources estimate that 2016/17 fall/winter crop cycle production
reached approximately 2.6 MMT, which is lower than previous forecasts due to irregular weather
conditions that prevailed during sowing and crop development in Tamaulipas, the main producer state,
during this cycle.
Consumption:
The sorghum total consumption estimate for MY 2016/17 has been revised downward from
USDA/Official figures, based on the most recent information from official sources and reflecting lower
than previously estimated domestic production.
Stocks:
The USDA/Official ending stocks estimate for MY2016/17 has been revised downward based on lower
production than previously expected. This adjustment is reflected in the downward adjustment for MY
2017/18 carryover.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Table 3: Mexico, Sorghum Production, Supply,
and Demand for MY 2015/16 to MY 2017/18
Sorghum
Market Begin Year
Mexico
Area Harvested
Beginning Stocks
Production
MY Imports
TY Imports
TY Imp. from U.S.
Total Supply
MY Exports
TY Exports
Feed and Residual
FSI Consumption
Total Consumption
Ending Stocks
Total Distribution
Yield
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
Oct 2015
USDA Official
New Post
Oct 2016
USDA Official
New Post
Oct 2017
USDA Official
New Post
1678
338
5587
661
661
661
6586
0
0
6200
100
6300
286
6586
3.3296
1678
338
5587
661
661
661
6586
0
0
6200
100
6300
286
6586
3.3296
1450
286
5050
700
700
0
6036
0
0
5750
100
5850
186
6036
3.4828
1460
286
4700
700
700
700
5686
0
0
5450
100
5550
136
5686
3.2192
1700
186
6000
500
500
0
6686
0
0
6300
100
6400
286
6686
3.5294
1700
136
6000
500
500
500
6636
0
0
6300
100
6400
236
6636
3.5294
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)
MX7031 September Grain and Feed Update
Page 4
RICE
Production:
For MY 2016/17, total rice production and harvested area estimates have been revised slightly
downward from the USDA/Official estimate based on updated official data from SAGARPA as of
August 31, 2017. Recently, SAGARPA published the preliminary final data for the 2016/17 fall/winter
crop cycle, which shows a slightly smaller than previously estimated planted area and consequently
lower production level. According to SAGARPA officials, growers have nearly completed their
fall/winter harvest, and it is estimated that the current harvest will produce 82,000 MT of rice. This is
approximately 3 percent lower the previous crop due to the smaller harvested area.
Trade:
The Post/New import and export estimates for MY 2016/17 were revised upward in order to reflect
official data from SAGARPA and SHCP for the first eleven months of the marketing year.
Stocks:
The Post ending stocks estimate for MY2016/17 has been increased to 189,000 MT, because of higher
than expected imports. This is reflected in the upward adjustment for MY 2017/18 carryover, as well.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics: Table 4: Mexico, Rice Production, Supply, and
Demand for MY 2015/16 to MY 2017/18
Rice, Milled
Market Begin Year
Mexico
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
Oct 2015
USDA Official
New Post
Oct 2016
USDA Official
New Post
Oct 2017
USDA Official
New Post
Area Harvested
Beginning Stocks
Milled Production
Rough Production
Milling Rate (.9999)
MY Imports
TY Imports
TY Imp. from U.S.
Total Supply
MY Exports
TY Exports
Consumption and Residual
Ending Stocks
Total Distribution
Yield (Rough)
40
165
156
227
6870
693
731
647
1014
2
2
885
127
1014
5.675
40
165
156
227
6870
693
731
647
1014
2
2
885
127
1014
5.675
40
127
181
263
6870
800
800
0
1108
55
55
900
153
1108
6.575
39
127
177
258
6870
865
865
725
1169
80
80
900
189
1169
6.6154
40
153
185
269
6870
800
800
0
1138
2
2
910
226
1138
6.725
40
189
185
269
6870
800
800
755
1174
2
2
910
259
1171
6.725
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)
For More Information:
FAS/Mexico Web Site: We are available at www.mexico-usda.com.mx or visit the FAS headquarters'
home page at www.fas.usda.gov for a complete selection of FAS worldwide agricultural reporting.
Other Relevant Reports Submitted by FAS/Mexico
Report
Title of Report
Number
MX7031 September Grain and Feed Update
Date
Submitted
Page 5
MX7024
MX7007
MX7001
MX6031
MX6023
MX6009
MX6004
Mexico Expects Strong Corn Crop Due to Favorable Weather
Average Production Expected as Consumption Growth Slows
Increased Acreage, Good Weather Boost Corn Production
Wheat, Corn, and Sorghum Estimates Down Slightly; New Rice
Program Announced
June 2016 Grain and Feed Update
2016 Grain and Feed Annual Mexico
Grain and Feed January Update Mexico
MX7031 September Grain and Feed Update
6/15/2017
3/14/2017
2/3/2017
9/1/2016
6/6/2016
3/12/2016
1/26/2016
Page 6