Depnaker-Prospek_2025 Faisal Basri.ppt
PROSPEK EKONOMI
INDONESIA 2025
Faisal Basri
28 November 2008
Kaidah dasar
Tak ada jalan pintas untuk memperoleh hasil
yang berwujud perbaikan berkelanjutan
Fondasi yang kokoh adalah prasyarat mutlak.
Yang kita benahi sekarang baru akan
menghasilkan bertahun-tahun kemudian, tapi
lebih pasti. Semakin berkualitas benih yang kita
tanam, semakin besar kemungkinan kita akan
menuai hasil yang lebih banyak dan berkualitas.
Patterns of development
Great Leap/
leap frogging
Dicontinuum
pattern
Smooth or normal
pattern
Discontinuum pattern
Welfare
lack of institutions
Normal
pattern
lack of institutions
Back to
normal
track
disturbance
actual
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
disturbance
1995
2005
Time
Kesejahteraan
Fungsi perencanaan
Visi?
a
y
a
p
U
A
al
im
s
ak
m
Bertolak dari
kemampuan
sekarang
Pasrah
Waktu
Visi Nasional versus Visi YIF
NASIONAL
Tujuan: Pembukaan UUD
1945
Visi 2025: Indonesia yang
mandiri, maju, adil dan
makmur:
• Pengangguran terbuka < 5%
• Jumlah orang miskin < 5%
• Pendapatan perkapita setara
dengan “upper middle income”
yang tahun 2005 rata-rata
$5,625
YIF
Tujuan: tak tercantum
eksplisit
Visi 2030: Negara maju yang
unggul dalam pengelolaan
kekayaan alam:
• 5 besar kekuatan ekonomi
dunia
• Pendapatan perkapita $18,000
• 10 besar tujuan pariwisata
dunia
• 30 besar indeks HDI
• 30 perusahaan Indonesia
masuk Fortune 500
Tujuan (common goals/ends)
Melindungi segenap bangsa Indonesia dan seluruh
tumpah darah Indonesia
Memajukan kesejahteraan umum
Mencerdaskan kehidupan bangsa
Ikut melaksanakan ketertiban dunia yang
berdasarkan kemerdekaan, perdamaian abadi dan
keadilan sosial.
—Pembukaan UUD 1945, alinea ke-4
Kesejahteraan sosial
Tidak boleh ada kemiskinan di bumi Indonesia
Merdeka.
Tidak didominasi oleh Kaum Kapitalis
Kesejateraan yang merata ke seluruh rakyatnya
(kesejahteraan bersama = kesejahteraan sosial)
—Bung Karno
Mewujudkan kebahagiaan: 4 pilar
Modal Manusia
Modal Spiritual
Kebahagiaan
Kebahagiaan
(Happiness)
(Happiness)
Modal Fisik
Modal Sosial
Kebahagiaan
“Happiness is the meaning and the purpose of life, the
whole aim and end of human existence.”
—Aristotle
“All laws and all actions should aim at producing the
greatest happiness.”
—Jeremy Bentham
“We should monitor the development of happiness in our
countries as closely as we monitor the development of
income.”
—Richard Layard
“Growth is no longer making us happy.”
—Bill McKibben
Gross national income per capita, US$, 2005
GNI Per
Capita
PPP GNI
Per Capita
Norway
59,590
40,420
Switzerland
54,930
37,080
Denmark
47,390
33,570
United States
43,740
41,950
Sweden
41,060
31,420
Country
Country
Singapore
GNI per capita
PPP GNI per capita
5 highest
per capita
income
PPP : Non-PPP
27,490
29,780
1.1
Malaysia
4,960
10,320
2.1
Thailand
2,750
8,840
3.2
China
1,740
6,600
3.8
Philippines
1,300
5,300
4.1
Indonesia
1,280
3,720
2.9
620
3,010
4.8
18,620
25,280
1.4
Vietnam
Israel
The size of the economy
Country
United States
GNI, 2005
US$ billions
Population, 2005
Millions
12,970
296
Japan
4,988
128
Germany
2,852
82
China
2,264
1,305
United Kingdom
2,264
60
India
793
1,095
Mexico
753
103
Brazil
644
186
Russian Fed.
639
143
Indonesia
282
221
5 biggest
economies
> 100 mil.
population
Mau jadi
negara terbesar
ke-5 pd 2030?
Tantangan perekonomian Indonesia
Pertumbuhan yang berkualitas
Daya saing perekomian
Kualitas SDM: pendidikan dan kesehatan
Budaya riset sebagai kunci menjadi negara
industrial yang tangguh
Ketimpangan: antarkelompok pendapatan,
antarsektor, fungsional, desa-kota
Low quality growth, 2000-2008 (%)
10
8
6
4
2
2000
2001
2002
2003
Tradable
* Jan-Sep (until 3rd quarter).
Source: BPS.
2004
2005
Non-tradable
2006
GDP
2007
2008*
Demographic windows of opportunity
e: World Bank (2006), based on UN Population Division (2005).
Terima Kasih
Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com
Blog: www.faisalbasri.blogs.friendster.com
INDONESIA DI TENGAH
KRISIS FINANSIAL GLOBAL:
TINJAUAN EKONOMI POLITIK
Faisal Basri
27 November 2008
Bagian I
Pusat Gempa dan
Kemakmuran Semu
Size of US economy and financial system
Total value of all goods and services produced:
$13.8tr (Indonesia = $0.4 tr)
Total amount of money in circulation: $0.57 tr
Total debts Gov & Private = $32.4 tr (235% GDP)
Treasury debts: $9.2 tr (67% GDP)
Household debts: $14.0 tr (101% GDP)
Home mortgage: $10.6 tr (77% GDP)
Sub-prime & its derivatives: + $3.0 tr
US Bail out package: $0.7 tr
Bail out plus injection = $1 tr (7% GDP)
US Gov deficit (2008) without bailout: 2.2% GDP
Falling off the property ladder
Lemak menyelimuti jantung
Source: Business Week, http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_42/b4104054852633.htm
The end of the affair …
Source: The Economist (http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?
story_id=12637090)
Scary
Personal savings
as a percentage
of dipsosable
income:
1997 = 8.7%
2007 = 0.6%
Source: The Economist, October 11-17, 2008, A Special Report, p.10; and Newsweek,
November 10, 2008, p. 42-3.
Over-the-counter derivatives: BIS-data
(billions US dollars)
DERIVATIVESTOTAL
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
OTC credit default swaps (BIS data)
(billions US dollars)
CDS
60,000
50,000
Enormous
increase
40,000
30,000
20,000
No data
available
10,000
0
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Widening gap: Forex trading & merchandise trade
Alternative attractions
Lebih ideologis
U.S. Stock market history
Source: Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122368241652024977.html (October
13, 2008, 9:48 p.m.)
THREE BEARS: the past century’s worst
market slumps
Source: Wall Sreet Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122359593027021243.html.
Comparison of economic crisis
US Great Depression (1929–1934)
Un-employment: 25%
Mortgage NPL: 40% (in 1934)
Industrial production dropped 54% (1929–1932)
US this year (August 2007 – October 2008)
Unemployment: slightly over 6.5%
Mortgage NPL: 4%
Industrial production has dropped 2% since Jan 2008
Cost of Bailout
US Saving & Loans crisis 1988: 3.7% GDP
Mexico (1994): 19.3% GDP
Japan (1997): 24% GDP
South Korea (1997): 31.2% GDP
US (2008): 6%-7% GDP
… Recession is coming
A Record Decline in October’s Retail Sales in
the last 16 years.
Consumer Prices Sink Amid Slump :The U.S.
consumer price index fell 1.0% in October from
the previous month, the biggest drop in 61 years..
(wsj.com, Nov. 19, 2008).
Downturn Drags More Consumers Into
Bankruptcy—The economy’s deep troubles are
pushing a growing number of already struggling
consumers into bankruptcy .., often with far more
debt than those who filed in previous downturns.
Jobless claim hit 7-year high
Tech Companies, Long Insulated, Now Feel
Slump—In the span of just a few weeks, orders
for both business and consumer tech products
have collapsed, and technology companies have
begun laying off workers (nytimes.com,
November 15, 2008).
U.S. Stock market lost
Source: Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122346026975114825.html (October 10, 2008, 1:00 p.m.
Bailout plan
Bailout Fails to Stem Global Stock Slump
Source: Ihttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/business/18markets.html?_r=1&8au&emc=au&oref=slogin
Stimulus jangan sampai garami laut
How much help government think
the economy needs, then add 50
percent. It's much better, in a
depressed economy, to err on the
side of too much stimulus than on
the side of too little.
--Paul Krugman, November 2008
Anatomy of crisis
The fundamental cause was not greed and
corruption on Wall Street.
The crisis has roots in key policy decisions
stretching back over more than three decades.
At the domestic level, the key decisions in the
United States were to deregulate commissions
for stock trading in the 1970s and then to
eliminate the Glass-Steagall restrictions on
mixing commercial and investment banking in
the 1990s.
The other key element in the crisis was the set
of policies giving rise to global imbalances. The
Bush Administration cut taxes, causing
government dissaving. The Fed cut interest
rates in response to the 2001 recession.
All out plan by other countries
China pledges $586 billion to offset
slowing growth (economic stimulus
plan)
EU got together to support their
banking systems with a
coordinated €1.5 trillion bailout
The global economy is in a tough spot
Global economic growth to slow
significantly in second half of
2008.
Main factors: Rising energy,
commodity prices have boosted
inflationary pressure.
The financial crisis is spreading rapidly ..
.. to the previously resilient developing world:
Global trade is forecast to shrink in 2009 for the first time
since 1982.
Foreign investment and short-term credit are drying up.
Developing country exports are falling; large amounts of
capital have been withdrawn.
Many developing countries face sharply tighter credit and
higher interest rates.
GDP growth in developing countries is expected to fall to
4.5% from a projected 6.4%.
Private capital flows are expected to drop from $1 trillion in
2007 to $530 billion in 2009.
(World Bank, November 2008)
Oil prices fall approached $50 a barrel
Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) January, 2009
5:14 p.m. EDT
US$50.65 =
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118
Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134
Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145
Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150
•
Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.
Oil prices and stock market
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Commodity prices appear to have peaked
Source: IMF, September 9, 2009.
Shares of Global GDP, 2007
At PPP
exchange rates*
At market
exchange rates
United States
21.36
25.51
China
10.83
5.99
Japan
6.61
8.08
India
4.58
2.02
Germany
4.34
6.12
United Kingdom
3.30
5.11
Russia
3.18
2.38
France
3.17
4.72
Brazil
2.81
2.42
Italy
2.76
3.88
Country
*PPP = purchasing power parity.
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2008, p.
45.
The contribution of emerging market
economies has doubled since 1990
Source: “Economic Forecasts: Hard to Rely On?“ Finance and Development, Vol.45, No. 3, September 2008.
Advanced economies are most affected
by financial turbulence
Source: IMF, September 9, 2009.
Global outlook
(Real GDP, percent change from a year earlier)
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2008: 25.
Bagian II
Perekonomian Indonesia
Apakah landasan ekonomi kita sangat kokoh?
Indonesia Korban Tidak Bersalah
(Kompas, Kamis, 20 November 2008)
Indonesia berada di urutan teratas dalam daftar korban krisis yang
tidak bersalah dalam gejolak ekonomi dunia saat ini. Oleh karena
itu, Indonesia meminta perhatian dunia untuk mendapat prioritas
pertama sebagai negara yang perlu diselamatkan dari kemungkinan
terburuk akibat krisis.
”Dalam krisis ini, negara yang bagus, mengelola keuangannya
dengan baik, dan memiliki institusi ekonomi yang sehat serta
kredibel tetap bisa terkena dampak negatif. Itu tidak fair (adil). Ini
yang disebut innocent victim (korban yang tidak bersalah),” ujar
Menteri Keuangan sekaligus Pelaksana Jabatan Menko Perekonomian
Sri Mulyani Indrawati seusai Rapat Koordinasi Terbatas dengan
Gubernur Bank Indonesia Boediono, Rabu (19/11) di Jakarta.
Sumber daya tahan
Perekonomian Indonesia dan sektor keuangannya tak
terkait erat dengan sektor finansial AS.
Harga minyak turun ke level di bawah $50 per barrel.
Current account masih surplus walau surplusnya
menyusut.
Porsi ekspor Indonesia ke AS, Eropa, dan Jepang sudah
menunjukkan penurunan; bergeser ke EM dan Asean.
Sektor perbankan sudah cukup terkonsolidasi. Indikator
kesehatan perbankan (ROA, ROE, NIM, CAR) di atas
rata-rata negara tetangga, bahkan bisa dikatakan yang
terbaik, kecuali LDR. (warning: bank BUMN!!!)
Ketahanan pangan terjaga.
Transmission of global economic and
financial crisis to Indonesia
Balance of Payments
Problems
Global Economic
&
Financial Crisis
Global economic slow down (shrinking
global trade)
Declining trend of commodity prices
Financial distress and global credit crunch
Classical problem of Emerging Markets:
Slower global growth declining commodity
prices export slow down deteriorating
CA balance Depreciating currency
Indonesia
Economy
Financial Markets
Channels
Collapse of
financial
institutions in
the US
Credit crunch,
Bail out and
liquidity
drying up
Risk aversion
capital outflows
from Emerging
Markets
Financing
and Liquidity
Problems in
Emerging Mkt
Financial
Sector
Instability in
Emerging Mkt
Balance of payments
I.
CURRENT ACCOUNT
A. Goods, net (Trade
Balance)
1. Exports, f.o.b.
2. Imports, f.o.b.
B. Services, net
C. Income, net
D. Current Transfers,
net
II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL
ACCOUNT
A. Capital Account
B. Financial Account
1. Direct investment
2. Portfolio investment
3. Other investment
III. ERRORS & OMISSIONS
IV. RESERVES &RELATED
ITEMS
Source: Bank Indonesia.
Q108
Q208
H108
7,526
34,400
-26,874
-2,973
-3,536
5,354
37,255
-31,901
-3,274
-4,889
12,880
71,655
-58,775
-6,247
-8,425
4,968
1,312
1,332
2,644
2,944 3,322
350
546
2,594 2,776
2,211
2,139
4,174
5,523
-3,791 -4,885
729 -1,008
-337
41
-378
1,106
1,923
-3,407
-960
3,725 3,388
57
98
3,668 3,290
958
2,064
4,314
6,237
-1,604 -5,011
-923 -1,883
2006 2007
10,836 10,401
29,660 32,754
103,528 118,014
-73,868 -85,260
-9,888 -11,797
-13,800 -15,524
4,863
2,328 -1,477
851
-14,510 -12,715 -1,032 -1,324 -2,356
Foreign merchandise trade: price effects
Price increases dominated of the growth in non-oil exports.
Billion US$
Growth (yoy)
Description
2005
Total export
2006
2007 2008*
85.7 100.8 114.0
2006 2007 2008*
107.6
17.7
13.1
29.7
Non-oil and gas
66.4
79.6
91.9
83.3
19.8
15.5
23.4
Oil and gas
19.2
21.2
22.1
24.3
10.3
4.1
57.3
Total import
57.7
61.1
74.4
101.1
5.8
21.9
53.4
Non-oil and gas
40.2
42.1
52.5
75.2
4.6
24.8
47.4
Oil and gas
17.5
19.0
21.9
25.9
8.6
15.5
68.4
* January-September.
Source: BPS.
Trade balance of oil and oil products
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008*
Exports
5,228
5,621
6,241
8,146
8,169
9,226
10,891
Imports
3,217
3,928
5,831
6,797
7,853
9,057
8,407
(X - M)
2,011
1,694
410
1,349
316
169
2,484
Exports
1,308
1,548
1,654
1,932
2,844
2,871
2,778
Imports
3,309
3,583
5,892
10,646
11,080
12,734
17,337
(X - M)
-2,001
-2,035
-4,238
-8,714
-8,236
-9,863
-14,559
Exports
6,535
7,169
7,896
10,078
11,013
12,097
13,669
Imports
6,526
7,510
11,724
17,443
18,933
21,791
25,744
(X - M)
10
-342
-3,828
-7,365
-7,920
-9,694
-12,075
Crude Oil
Oil Products
Total
*January-September Source: BPS.
Trade balance of oil and gas
US$ million
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
2002
2003
2004
2005
Oil & oil products
•January-September
•Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
2006
Gas
2007
Oil & gas
2008*
Jasa di neraca pembayaran
(US$ millions)
1997 2005 2006 2007
A. Trade balance
B. Services, net
10,07
4 17,534 29,660 32,718
9,667 -9,122 -9,888 11,797
C. Income, net
-6,332 -12,927 -13,800 -15,524
D. Current transfer,
net
725 4,793 4,863 4,968
Current account 5,199
278 10,836 10,365
Source: Bank Indonesia
Another financial crisis?
Structure of balance of payments
(US$ millions)
15,000
15,000
10,000
10,000
5,000
5,000
0
0
-5,000
-5,000
-10,000
2006
2007
2008*
Capital & Financial Account, net
Errors & Omissions
Current Account
irst semester
urce: Bank Indonesia, July 2008.
-10,000
2006
2007
2008*
Direct Investment, net
Portfolio Investment, net
Other Investment, net
Indonesia: direct investment
Year
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008*
Abroad In Indonesia
-3,408
-3,065
-2,703
-4,790
-3,640
* First semester
Source: Bank Indonesia.
4,677
-241
-1,865
-4,551
-2,977
145
-597
1,896
8,336
4,914
6,928
5,704
Net
4,677
-241
-1,865
-4,551
-2,977
145
-597
-1,512
5,271
2,211
2,139
2,064
The role of foreign direct investment (1)
FDI flows as a percentage of gross fixed capital formation
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.
The role of foreign direct investment (2)
FDI stocks as a percentage of gross domestic product
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.
The role of FDI in Asia & South America, 2006
FDI flows to GFCF
Country
Venezuela
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
Indonesia
China
India
Argentina
Taiwan
Brazil
Vietnam
Philippines
Thailand
Peru
Bolivia
Malaysia
Pakistan
Ecuador
Chile
Cambodia
Singapore
Asia
South America
Percent
-2.1
3.9
6.2
6.4
8.0
8.7
9.6
10.3
10.5
12.5
14.1
16.5
18.9
19.5
20.1
24.1
24.8
28.3
38.9
79.5
12.9
13.1
Country
FDI stocks to GDP
Indonesia
India
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
China
Pakistan
Taiwan
Philippines
Peru
Brazil
Venezuela
Argentina
Thailand
Malaysia
Ecuador
Cambodia
Bolivia
Vietnam
Chile
Singapore
Asia
South America
Percent
5.2
5.7
6.3
10.9
11.1
11.4
14.2
14.6
20.7
20.8
25.0
27.4
33.0
36.0
39.9
41.6
44.6
54.8
55.4
159.0
24.9
26.0
Notes: FDI = Foreign Direct Investment (inward); GFCF = Gross Fixed Capital Formation; GDP = Gross Domestic Product. Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.
FDI performance and potential
Performance
Potential
High FDI
Potential
Low FDI
Potential
Source: UNCTAD, 2006
High FDI
Performance
Low FDI
Performance
Front-runners:
Brunei, China, Hong
Kong, Malaysia,
Singapore
Below potential:
Iran, Israel, Kuwait,
Philippines, Taiwan,
Thailand
Above potential:
Azerbaijan,
Tajikistan, Viet Nam
Under-performers:
Bangladesh, India,
Indonesia,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka
Japanese FDI: downward evaluation of Indonesia
Promising countries for overseas business operation
over the medium term (next 3 years or so)
Rank
1997
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1st
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
2nd
USA
USA
USA
Thiland
Thailand
Thailand
India
India
India
3rd
Indonesia
Thailand
Thailand
USA
USA
India
Thailand
Vietnam
Vietnam
4th
Thailand
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Vietnam
Viet nam
Thailand
Thailand
5th
India
Malaysia
India
Vietnam
India
USA
USA
USA
Russia
6th
Vetnam
Taiwan
Vietnam
India
Indonesia
Russia
Russia
Russia
USA
7th
Philippines
India
Taiwan
Korea
Korea
Indonesia
Korea
Brazil
Brazil
8th
Malaysia
Vietnam
Korea
Taiwan
Taiwan
Korea
Indonesia
Korea
Indonesia
9th
Brazil
Korea
Malaysia
Malaysia
Malaysia
Taiwan
Brazil
Indonesia
Korea
10th
Taiwan
Philippines
Singapore
Brazil
Russia
Malaysia
Taiwan
Taiwan
Taiwan
ce: JBIC.
Better foundation
64
Structure of foreign debts
Government
Private
Total
4%
14%
73%
96%
86%
As of 1st quarter 2008:
Total gross external debts:
Government (+ Monetary Authority)
= US$ 87.5 billions
Private Sectors
= US$ 62.2 billions
Total
= US$149.7 billions
Short-term external debts (in percent of foreign exchange
reserves) = 34.5%
Source: Bank Indonesia, August 2008.
External vulnerability: regional comparison
– economic perception
Too big, too high
Bloomberg commodity price
index
Should
be here
Source: CITI’s Asia Macro Views, “Measuring Asia’s External Vulnerability,”
8 October 2008
Siapkan kondisi terburuk
Krisis finansial global menyadarkan kita tentang
rapuhnya tatanan yang ada muncul tuntutan untuk
penataan ulang sistem finansial global dan interaksi
hubungan ekonomi antarbangsa.
Perekonomian kita justru cenderung mengarah ke pola
AS yang rapuh itu. Tentu konsekuensinya bisa lebih
parah karena kita tak punya kemewahan untuk
menjawab masalah sebagaimana yg dialami AS.
Perubahan pola pikir yang mendasar agar landasan
perekonomian nasional lebih kokoh:
Mencapai tujuan secara efektif
Lebih stabil atau volatilitas berkurang
Memenuhi rasa keadilan.
Economic temperature higher ..
Inflation returns 2 digit, y-o-y, %
18.38
18
14.55
14
10.60
11.77
10
8.81
8
7.20
2002
Source: BPS.
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jul
2004
Oct
5.27
4.60
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
4
5.79
Apr
6
Apr-
12
Jan
percent
16
7.0
Source: Bank Indonesia.
7 -O c t
3 -J u l
3 -A p r
Jan
8 -O c t
5 -J u l
5 -A p r
4 -J a n
5 -O c t
6 -J u l
5 -A p r
9 -J a n
4 -O c t
5 -J u l
BI Rate bisa turun?
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
Persoalan likuiditas
LIBOR tenor 1 bln turun dr 4.5% pd awal Okt ke 2.3% pd
awal Nov. Bahkan overnite $ sdh di bawah 0.5%. Jadi, ,
likuiditas dan trust di pasar uang antarbank membaik.
Sejauh ini di Indonesia masih belum normal. Likuiditas
sudah membaik, tapi terkonsentrasi di beberapa bank,
sehingga pinjaman antarbank di Indonesia masih seret.
Penyebab likuiditas ketat di Indonesia:
Pemerintah tarik dana banyak, tapi spending lamban.
Intervensi BI untuk jaga Rupiah Jan-Sep US$16 miliar.
Pertumbuhan kredit pada Agustus 08 naik tinggi ke 35% y-o-y
(atau 20% ytd); sedangkan pertumbuhan dana masyarakat
turun ke 9,6% y-o-y (atau 1,0% ytd).
Government account at BI
200000
Rpbn
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Aug-04
Aug-05
Aug-06
Aug-07
Aug-08
8,500
10-Nov
27-Aug
18-Jun
9-Apr
28-Jan
8-Nov
24-Aug
18-Jun
5-Apr
26-Jan
15-Nov
1-Sep
22-Jun
12-Apr
1-Feb
23-Nov
9-Sep
1-Jul
21-Apr
8-Feb
1-Dec
16-Sep
7-Jul
8-Apr
Heart beat has been increasing …
(Rupiah per US$)
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
Source: Bank Indonesia
Depresiasi mata uang mewabah
Data s.d. 11/11/08
South Korean Won
-29.99
Australian Dollar
-23.89
New Zealand Dollar
-24.61
British Pound
-22.57
Canadian Dollar
Oct-Nov '08
-17.59
ytd
Thai Baht
-15.32
Philippine Peso
-15.14
Euro
-13.4
Indonesian Rupiah
-16.88
Malaysian Ringgit
-7.73
Swiss Franc
-4.35
Depresiasi
Singapore Dollar
Apresiasi
-4.12
Taiwanese Dollar
-1.4
Hong Kong Dollar
0.61
Chinese Renmimbi
7.08
Japanese Yen
14.5
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Multiinterpretatif dan self-interest
Imbauan Diperlukan, tetapi Tak Akan Efektif
(Kompas, Kamis, 20 November 2008)
Imbauan Bank Indonesia agar masyarakat mengonversi dollar
AS yang dimilikinya ke mata uang rupiah memang diperlukan
sebagai ajakan moral dari otoritas. Namun, langkah itu dinilai
tidak akan efektif menguatkan rupiah.
Menteri Perindustrian Fahmi Idris mengatakan, seruan
Gubernur BI kepada masyarakat untuk melepas kepemilikan
dollar AS di dalam negeri tidak ditujukan kepada para
pejabat dan masyarakat umum.
”Untuk rumah tangga, jika tidak perlu memegang dollar AS, ya
tidak usah memegang dollar AS, kecuali punya anak yang
sekolah di luar negeri,” ujarnya.
Fenomena US$ dan dampaknya pada Rp
Hampir semua mata uang melemah terhadap US$.
Perekonomian AS sedang sakit parah.
AS sangat haus utang, karena tekor di segala lini:
belanja > pendapatan;
konsumsi > produksi;
impor > ekspor (current account deficit);
pengeluaran pemerintah > penerimaan pemerintah (budget
deficit)
Jadi, terjadi anomali? It’s not that people want to own
dollars, its just that they want to own the alternatives
even less.
Karena itu, harga-harga emas dan komoditas juga turun.
JSX index dropped significantly
Business Week, 14-21 Maret 2007, hal.18.
2,900
2,800
(Jakarta composite index)
2,700
2,600
2,500
2,400
2,300
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
6-Oct
4-Aug
6-J un
9-Apr
6-F eb
30-N ov
2-Oc t
6-Aug
11-J un
11-Apr
12-F eb
13-D ec
11-Oc t
11-Aug
16-Jun
19-Apr
16-F eb
19-D ec
17-Oct
19-Aug
23-Jun
26-Apr
24-F eb
22-Oc t
800
24-D ec
900
Kunci penyelesaian
Bursa masih tersandera oleh saham-saham
Bakrie Group.
Jangan sampai saham-saham perusahaan batu
bara jatuh ke tangan asing bertentangan
dengan semangat divestasi kontrak karya.
Buka opsi bailout.
Bersih-bersih tuntas di bursa meningkatkan
kredibilitas bursa.
Sekarang Bakrie, lalu Bukaka dan Bosowa…
Wapres: Kelangsungan Hidup Bakrie Perlu
Dijaga
Kompas.com, Jumat, 14 November 2008 | 13:35 WIB
"Pemerintah berkewajiban menjaga
kelangsungan hidup pengusaha nasional. Bukan
hanya Bakrie, tetapi siapa saja supaya
usahanya tetap berjalan," ujar Wapres dalam
jumpa pers usai shalat Jumat di Istana Wapres,
Jakarta, (14/11).
Dengan pemikiran seperti itu, pembelaan pemerintah kepada
Bakrie masih dalam kategori wajar. Pemerintah sebelumnya
juga membela pengusaha lain seperti Astra, Danamon, BCA,
sejumlah bank lain, dan sejumlah konglomerat. "Masakan
membantu Bakrie tidak boleh," ujarnya.
http://www.kompas.com/read/xml/2008/11/14/13352853/Wapres.Kelangsungan.Hidup.Bakrie.Perlu.Dijaga
5
6.4
6.1
4.7
7
6.5
Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
6.6
Indonesia’s post-crisis journey
3
1
-1
-3
-5
-7
Gus Dur:
“Erratic/shaky”
-9
-11
Megawati:
Consolidation and
acceleration
-13
-15
SBY: Throws away
Momentum, and then made
correction
-17
-19
-21
Crisis
peak
Source: BPS.
Low quality — Sectoral growth rate
(2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %)
2006 2007 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08
Tradable
3.7
3.8
5.2
2.3
3.4
3.2
3.2
Agriculture
3.0
3.5
8.9
3.1
6.0
4.6
2.4
Mining & Quarrying
2.2
2.0
1.8
-2.1
-2.3
-0.9
1.6
Manufacturing
4.6
4.7
4.5
3.8
4.3
4.1
4.3
7.4
9.0
7.9
10.6
9.5
10.1
9.5
Electricity, Gas & Water
5.9
10.4
11.7
11.8
12.1
11.2
10.6
Construction
9.0
8.6
7.5
9.9
8.3
8.0
7.5
Trade, Hotel & Rest.
6.1
8.5
6.9
9.1
7.2
7.9
7.6
Transport & Comm.
13.6
14.4
12.5
17.4
19.7
19.6
17.1
Finance
5.7
8.0
8.0
8.6
8.3
8.7
8.5
Services
6.2
6.6
5.7
7.2
5.7
6.5
6.7
5.5
6.3
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.4
6.1
Non-Tradable
GDP
Source: BPS.
Real GDP growth: tradables (%)
1. Agriculture
a. Farm Food Crops
b. Non Food Crops
c. Others
2. Mining and Quarrying
a. Oil & Gas
b. Non Oil & Gas
c. Quarrying
3. Manufacturing Industries
a. Oil & Gas
b. Non Oil & Gas
* Food, Bev. & Tobacco
* Textile, Leath & Footw
* Wood & Forest Prod.
* Paper & Printing
* Fertilizer, Chem.& Rubber
* Cement/Non-Metal Quarry
* Iron & Steel
* Transport/Machine Equip.
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
2004
2.8%
2.9%
0.4%
3.9%
-4.5%
-4.3%
-8.0%
7.5%
6.4%
-2.0%
7.5%
1.4%
4.1%
-2.1%
7.6%
9.0%
9.5%
-2.6%
17.7%
2005
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
3.0%
3.2%
-1.8%
12.2%
7.7%
4.6%
-5.7%
5.9%
2.7%
1.3%
-0.9%
2.4%
8.8%
3.8%
-3.7%
12.4%
2006
3.4%
3.0%
3.8%
3.7%
1.7%
-1.1%
4.8%
8.3%
4.6%
-1.7%
5.3%
7.2%
1.2%
-0.7%
2.1%
4.5%
0.5%
4.7%
7.6%
2007
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
2.0%
-1.2%
5.5%
8.6%
4.7%
-0.1%
5.2%
5.1%
-3.7%
-1.7%
5.8%
5.7%
3.4%
1.7%
9.7%
H1-2008
5.3%
6.5%
6.6%
-1.4%
0.0%
-6.5%
8.1%
4.1%
0.7%
4.5%
-2.4%
-3.4%
0.3%
0.4%
3.5%
-0.5%
3.0%
15.8%
Share
14.0%
7.5%
1.9%
4.6%
8.3%
4.6%
2.7%
0.9%
26.9%
2.3%
24.5%
6.4%
2.6%
1.0%
1.3%
3.3%
0.8%
0.4%
8.6%
Pertumbuhan manufaktur besar & sedang
KL
BI
15
16
17
18
20
24
26
27
29
31
32
34
35
36
Uraian
Makanan & minuman
Pengolahan tembakau
Tekstil
Pakaian jadi
Kayu dan brg dr kayu
Kimia & brg dr kimia
Brg galian bkn logam
Logam dasar
Mesin & perlengkapannya
Mesin listrik lainnya dan
perlengkapannya
Radio, TV & peralatan komunikasi
Kendaraan bermotor
Alat angkutan, selain kendaraan
bermotor roda-4
Furnitur & pengolahan lainnya
Total industri manufaktur
*Triwulan ketiga. Sumber: BPS, 3 November 2008.
.
2006
11.9
-0.9
6.0
67.3
-41.0
25.8
11.8
22.1
-2.9
2007 2008*
5.2
-4.9
15.9
6.8
11.2
4.7
-23.0 -30.6
-16.4
0.6
35.8 -13.0
0.3 -15.1
12.1
-2.6
43.0 -17.3
-1.3
87.1
-46.5
-22.1
50.5
29.6
12.2
12.7
16.6
-36.6
-1.9
-1.6
-8.9
-14.1
5.6
48.0
43.4
1.6
Sumbangan manufaktur terhadap PDB, %
39
Swaziland
35
Thailand
32
Belarus
Ireland
31
Malaysia
31
Romania
31
Korea
29
Singapore
29
28
Indonesia
Source: BPS.
Slovenia
Source: World Bank.
27
Jumlah penyerapan tenaga kerja
Sektor
Pertambangan & Penggalian
Industri Pengolahan
Listrik, Gas, Air Bersih
Konstruksi
Perdagangan Besar dan Eceran
Akomodasi, Makan, Minum
Transportasi, Gudang, Komunikasi
Perantara Keuangan
Real Estat, Usaha Persewaan
Jasa Pendidikan
Jasa Kesehatan dan Kegiatan Sosial
Jasa Kemasyarakatan, Sosbud, Hiburan
Jasa Perseorangan layani rumahtangga
Jumlah
Sumber : BPS, Sensus Ekonomi 2006.
Tenaga
Kerja
633.711
11.785.057
161.775
724.521
17.207.494
5.137.200
3.561.066
905.088
1.833.224
4.027.744
732.557
2.756.960
203.77
49.670.167
Persenta
se
1,3
23,8
0,3
1,5
34,5
10,3
7,2
1,8
3,7
8,1
1,5
5,6
0,4
100,0
Real GDP growth: non-tradables (%)
4. Utilities
5. Constructions
6. Trade, Hotel & Rest.
a. Wholesale & Retail
b. Hotel
c. Restaurant
7. Transport & Comm.
a. Transport
* Railways
* Road
* Air Transport
b. Communication
8. Finance
a. Banks
b. Non Bank Financial
9. Services
Non Oil & Gas GDP
Real GDP
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
2004
5.3%
7.5%
5.7%
5.5%
7.9%
6.1%
13.4%
8.8%
-0.9%
5.0%
30.1%
22.9%
7.7%
6.0%
9.2%
5.4%
2005
6.3%
7.5%
8.3%
8.8%
6.2%
5.9%
12.8%
6.3%
-3.0%
4.8%
10.4%
24.6%
6.7%
4.5%
8.3%
5.2%
2006
5.8%
8.3%
6.4%
6.6%
5.2%
5.8%
14.4%
6.6%
6.4%
5.0%
10.7%
26.4%
5.5%
1.6%
7.1%
6.2%
2007
10.4%
8.6%
8.5%
8.9%
5.3%
6.8%
14.4%
2.8%
1.3%
3.6%
8.3%
29.5%
8.0%
8.0%
8.1%
6.6%
Share
0.7%
6.2%
17.3%
14.3%
0.7%
2.3%
7.3%
3.7%
0.0%
1.6%
0.6%
3.6%
9.4%
4.0%
0.8%
9.3%
6.0%
5.0%
6.6%
5.7%
6.1%
5.5%
6.9%
6.3%
92.7%
100.0%
Which industries are most at risk?
External Impact to Indonesia
Medium and Large Manufacturing Industries
100
1
3
Value Added Contribution to Medium and Large Mfg Industries
2
90
High import contents &
export oriented
80
14
70
Export/Omzet (%)
15
60
High local contents
& export oriented
(14.42%)
High import contents
& export oriented
(16.17%)
High local contents
& domestic oriented
(36.88%)
High import contents
& domestic oriented
(32.45%)
High local
contents &
export oriented
50
5
40
16
7
30
4
6
20
12
11
8 High import contents &
domestic market
9
10
10
13
0
0
10
20
High local contents &
domestic market
30
40
50
60
70
Import/Total Raw Materials (%)
Note:
1 = electric motor industry
2 = root & tuber processing industry
3 = fruit & vegetables canning industry
4 = radio, tv & electronic appliance industry
5 = sport shoes industry
6 = glass industry
7 = garment industry
8 = four or more wheeler's component industry
80
90
100
Source: Processed from BPS, Industry Statistics,
9 = four or2005
more wheel motor vehicles industry
10 = two or three wheel motor vehicles industry
11 = cement industry
12 = cooking (palm) oil industry
13 = clove cigarette industry
14 = wood furnishing industry
15 = crumb rubber industry
16 = pulp industry
Terima Kasih
Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com
Blog: www.faisalbasri.blogs.friendster.com
INDONESIA 2025
Faisal Basri
28 November 2008
Kaidah dasar
Tak ada jalan pintas untuk memperoleh hasil
yang berwujud perbaikan berkelanjutan
Fondasi yang kokoh adalah prasyarat mutlak.
Yang kita benahi sekarang baru akan
menghasilkan bertahun-tahun kemudian, tapi
lebih pasti. Semakin berkualitas benih yang kita
tanam, semakin besar kemungkinan kita akan
menuai hasil yang lebih banyak dan berkualitas.
Patterns of development
Great Leap/
leap frogging
Dicontinuum
pattern
Smooth or normal
pattern
Discontinuum pattern
Welfare
lack of institutions
Normal
pattern
lack of institutions
Back to
normal
track
disturbance
actual
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
disturbance
1995
2005
Time
Kesejahteraan
Fungsi perencanaan
Visi?
a
y
a
p
U
A
al
im
s
ak
m
Bertolak dari
kemampuan
sekarang
Pasrah
Waktu
Visi Nasional versus Visi YIF
NASIONAL
Tujuan: Pembukaan UUD
1945
Visi 2025: Indonesia yang
mandiri, maju, adil dan
makmur:
• Pengangguran terbuka < 5%
• Jumlah orang miskin < 5%
• Pendapatan perkapita setara
dengan “upper middle income”
yang tahun 2005 rata-rata
$5,625
YIF
Tujuan: tak tercantum
eksplisit
Visi 2030: Negara maju yang
unggul dalam pengelolaan
kekayaan alam:
• 5 besar kekuatan ekonomi
dunia
• Pendapatan perkapita $18,000
• 10 besar tujuan pariwisata
dunia
• 30 besar indeks HDI
• 30 perusahaan Indonesia
masuk Fortune 500
Tujuan (common goals/ends)
Melindungi segenap bangsa Indonesia dan seluruh
tumpah darah Indonesia
Memajukan kesejahteraan umum
Mencerdaskan kehidupan bangsa
Ikut melaksanakan ketertiban dunia yang
berdasarkan kemerdekaan, perdamaian abadi dan
keadilan sosial.
—Pembukaan UUD 1945, alinea ke-4
Kesejahteraan sosial
Tidak boleh ada kemiskinan di bumi Indonesia
Merdeka.
Tidak didominasi oleh Kaum Kapitalis
Kesejateraan yang merata ke seluruh rakyatnya
(kesejahteraan bersama = kesejahteraan sosial)
—Bung Karno
Mewujudkan kebahagiaan: 4 pilar
Modal Manusia
Modal Spiritual
Kebahagiaan
Kebahagiaan
(Happiness)
(Happiness)
Modal Fisik
Modal Sosial
Kebahagiaan
“Happiness is the meaning and the purpose of life, the
whole aim and end of human existence.”
—Aristotle
“All laws and all actions should aim at producing the
greatest happiness.”
—Jeremy Bentham
“We should monitor the development of happiness in our
countries as closely as we monitor the development of
income.”
—Richard Layard
“Growth is no longer making us happy.”
—Bill McKibben
Gross national income per capita, US$, 2005
GNI Per
Capita
PPP GNI
Per Capita
Norway
59,590
40,420
Switzerland
54,930
37,080
Denmark
47,390
33,570
United States
43,740
41,950
Sweden
41,060
31,420
Country
Country
Singapore
GNI per capita
PPP GNI per capita
5 highest
per capita
income
PPP : Non-PPP
27,490
29,780
1.1
Malaysia
4,960
10,320
2.1
Thailand
2,750
8,840
3.2
China
1,740
6,600
3.8
Philippines
1,300
5,300
4.1
Indonesia
1,280
3,720
2.9
620
3,010
4.8
18,620
25,280
1.4
Vietnam
Israel
The size of the economy
Country
United States
GNI, 2005
US$ billions
Population, 2005
Millions
12,970
296
Japan
4,988
128
Germany
2,852
82
China
2,264
1,305
United Kingdom
2,264
60
India
793
1,095
Mexico
753
103
Brazil
644
186
Russian Fed.
639
143
Indonesia
282
221
5 biggest
economies
> 100 mil.
population
Mau jadi
negara terbesar
ke-5 pd 2030?
Tantangan perekonomian Indonesia
Pertumbuhan yang berkualitas
Daya saing perekomian
Kualitas SDM: pendidikan dan kesehatan
Budaya riset sebagai kunci menjadi negara
industrial yang tangguh
Ketimpangan: antarkelompok pendapatan,
antarsektor, fungsional, desa-kota
Low quality growth, 2000-2008 (%)
10
8
6
4
2
2000
2001
2002
2003
Tradable
* Jan-Sep (until 3rd quarter).
Source: BPS.
2004
2005
Non-tradable
2006
GDP
2007
2008*
Demographic windows of opportunity
e: World Bank (2006), based on UN Population Division (2005).
Terima Kasih
Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com
Blog: www.faisalbasri.blogs.friendster.com
INDONESIA DI TENGAH
KRISIS FINANSIAL GLOBAL:
TINJAUAN EKONOMI POLITIK
Faisal Basri
27 November 2008
Bagian I
Pusat Gempa dan
Kemakmuran Semu
Size of US economy and financial system
Total value of all goods and services produced:
$13.8tr (Indonesia = $0.4 tr)
Total amount of money in circulation: $0.57 tr
Total debts Gov & Private = $32.4 tr (235% GDP)
Treasury debts: $9.2 tr (67% GDP)
Household debts: $14.0 tr (101% GDP)
Home mortgage: $10.6 tr (77% GDP)
Sub-prime & its derivatives: + $3.0 tr
US Bail out package: $0.7 tr
Bail out plus injection = $1 tr (7% GDP)
US Gov deficit (2008) without bailout: 2.2% GDP
Falling off the property ladder
Lemak menyelimuti jantung
Source: Business Week, http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_42/b4104054852633.htm
The end of the affair …
Source: The Economist (http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?
story_id=12637090)
Scary
Personal savings
as a percentage
of dipsosable
income:
1997 = 8.7%
2007 = 0.6%
Source: The Economist, October 11-17, 2008, A Special Report, p.10; and Newsweek,
November 10, 2008, p. 42-3.
Over-the-counter derivatives: BIS-data
(billions US dollars)
DERIVATIVESTOTAL
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
OTC credit default swaps (BIS data)
(billions US dollars)
CDS
60,000
50,000
Enormous
increase
40,000
30,000
20,000
No data
available
10,000
0
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Widening gap: Forex trading & merchandise trade
Alternative attractions
Lebih ideologis
U.S. Stock market history
Source: Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122368241652024977.html (October
13, 2008, 9:48 p.m.)
THREE BEARS: the past century’s worst
market slumps
Source: Wall Sreet Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122359593027021243.html.
Comparison of economic crisis
US Great Depression (1929–1934)
Un-employment: 25%
Mortgage NPL: 40% (in 1934)
Industrial production dropped 54% (1929–1932)
US this year (August 2007 – October 2008)
Unemployment: slightly over 6.5%
Mortgage NPL: 4%
Industrial production has dropped 2% since Jan 2008
Cost of Bailout
US Saving & Loans crisis 1988: 3.7% GDP
Mexico (1994): 19.3% GDP
Japan (1997): 24% GDP
South Korea (1997): 31.2% GDP
US (2008): 6%-7% GDP
… Recession is coming
A Record Decline in October’s Retail Sales in
the last 16 years.
Consumer Prices Sink Amid Slump :The U.S.
consumer price index fell 1.0% in October from
the previous month, the biggest drop in 61 years..
(wsj.com, Nov. 19, 2008).
Downturn Drags More Consumers Into
Bankruptcy—The economy’s deep troubles are
pushing a growing number of already struggling
consumers into bankruptcy .., often with far more
debt than those who filed in previous downturns.
Jobless claim hit 7-year high
Tech Companies, Long Insulated, Now Feel
Slump—In the span of just a few weeks, orders
for both business and consumer tech products
have collapsed, and technology companies have
begun laying off workers (nytimes.com,
November 15, 2008).
U.S. Stock market lost
Source: Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122346026975114825.html (October 10, 2008, 1:00 p.m.
Bailout plan
Bailout Fails to Stem Global Stock Slump
Source: Ihttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/business/18markets.html?_r=1&8au&emc=au&oref=slogin
Stimulus jangan sampai garami laut
How much help government think
the economy needs, then add 50
percent. It's much better, in a
depressed economy, to err on the
side of too much stimulus than on
the side of too little.
--Paul Krugman, November 2008
Anatomy of crisis
The fundamental cause was not greed and
corruption on Wall Street.
The crisis has roots in key policy decisions
stretching back over more than three decades.
At the domestic level, the key decisions in the
United States were to deregulate commissions
for stock trading in the 1970s and then to
eliminate the Glass-Steagall restrictions on
mixing commercial and investment banking in
the 1990s.
The other key element in the crisis was the set
of policies giving rise to global imbalances. The
Bush Administration cut taxes, causing
government dissaving. The Fed cut interest
rates in response to the 2001 recession.
All out plan by other countries
China pledges $586 billion to offset
slowing growth (economic stimulus
plan)
EU got together to support their
banking systems with a
coordinated €1.5 trillion bailout
The global economy is in a tough spot
Global economic growth to slow
significantly in second half of
2008.
Main factors: Rising energy,
commodity prices have boosted
inflationary pressure.
The financial crisis is spreading rapidly ..
.. to the previously resilient developing world:
Global trade is forecast to shrink in 2009 for the first time
since 1982.
Foreign investment and short-term credit are drying up.
Developing country exports are falling; large amounts of
capital have been withdrawn.
Many developing countries face sharply tighter credit and
higher interest rates.
GDP growth in developing countries is expected to fall to
4.5% from a projected 6.4%.
Private capital flows are expected to drop from $1 trillion in
2007 to $530 billion in 2009.
(World Bank, November 2008)
Oil prices fall approached $50 a barrel
Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) January, 2009
5:14 p.m. EDT
US$50.65 =
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118
Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134
Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145
Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150
•
Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.
Oil prices and stock market
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Commodity prices appear to have peaked
Source: IMF, September 9, 2009.
Shares of Global GDP, 2007
At PPP
exchange rates*
At market
exchange rates
United States
21.36
25.51
China
10.83
5.99
Japan
6.61
8.08
India
4.58
2.02
Germany
4.34
6.12
United Kingdom
3.30
5.11
Russia
3.18
2.38
France
3.17
4.72
Brazil
2.81
2.42
Italy
2.76
3.88
Country
*PPP = purchasing power parity.
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2008, p.
45.
The contribution of emerging market
economies has doubled since 1990
Source: “Economic Forecasts: Hard to Rely On?“ Finance and Development, Vol.45, No. 3, September 2008.
Advanced economies are most affected
by financial turbulence
Source: IMF, September 9, 2009.
Global outlook
(Real GDP, percent change from a year earlier)
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2008: 25.
Bagian II
Perekonomian Indonesia
Apakah landasan ekonomi kita sangat kokoh?
Indonesia Korban Tidak Bersalah
(Kompas, Kamis, 20 November 2008)
Indonesia berada di urutan teratas dalam daftar korban krisis yang
tidak bersalah dalam gejolak ekonomi dunia saat ini. Oleh karena
itu, Indonesia meminta perhatian dunia untuk mendapat prioritas
pertama sebagai negara yang perlu diselamatkan dari kemungkinan
terburuk akibat krisis.
”Dalam krisis ini, negara yang bagus, mengelola keuangannya
dengan baik, dan memiliki institusi ekonomi yang sehat serta
kredibel tetap bisa terkena dampak negatif. Itu tidak fair (adil). Ini
yang disebut innocent victim (korban yang tidak bersalah),” ujar
Menteri Keuangan sekaligus Pelaksana Jabatan Menko Perekonomian
Sri Mulyani Indrawati seusai Rapat Koordinasi Terbatas dengan
Gubernur Bank Indonesia Boediono, Rabu (19/11) di Jakarta.
Sumber daya tahan
Perekonomian Indonesia dan sektor keuangannya tak
terkait erat dengan sektor finansial AS.
Harga minyak turun ke level di bawah $50 per barrel.
Current account masih surplus walau surplusnya
menyusut.
Porsi ekspor Indonesia ke AS, Eropa, dan Jepang sudah
menunjukkan penurunan; bergeser ke EM dan Asean.
Sektor perbankan sudah cukup terkonsolidasi. Indikator
kesehatan perbankan (ROA, ROE, NIM, CAR) di atas
rata-rata negara tetangga, bahkan bisa dikatakan yang
terbaik, kecuali LDR. (warning: bank BUMN!!!)
Ketahanan pangan terjaga.
Transmission of global economic and
financial crisis to Indonesia
Balance of Payments
Problems
Global Economic
&
Financial Crisis
Global economic slow down (shrinking
global trade)
Declining trend of commodity prices
Financial distress and global credit crunch
Classical problem of Emerging Markets:
Slower global growth declining commodity
prices export slow down deteriorating
CA balance Depreciating currency
Indonesia
Economy
Financial Markets
Channels
Collapse of
financial
institutions in
the US
Credit crunch,
Bail out and
liquidity
drying up
Risk aversion
capital outflows
from Emerging
Markets
Financing
and Liquidity
Problems in
Emerging Mkt
Financial
Sector
Instability in
Emerging Mkt
Balance of payments
I.
CURRENT ACCOUNT
A. Goods, net (Trade
Balance)
1. Exports, f.o.b.
2. Imports, f.o.b.
B. Services, net
C. Income, net
D. Current Transfers,
net
II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL
ACCOUNT
A. Capital Account
B. Financial Account
1. Direct investment
2. Portfolio investment
3. Other investment
III. ERRORS & OMISSIONS
IV. RESERVES &RELATED
ITEMS
Source: Bank Indonesia.
Q108
Q208
H108
7,526
34,400
-26,874
-2,973
-3,536
5,354
37,255
-31,901
-3,274
-4,889
12,880
71,655
-58,775
-6,247
-8,425
4,968
1,312
1,332
2,644
2,944 3,322
350
546
2,594 2,776
2,211
2,139
4,174
5,523
-3,791 -4,885
729 -1,008
-337
41
-378
1,106
1,923
-3,407
-960
3,725 3,388
57
98
3,668 3,290
958
2,064
4,314
6,237
-1,604 -5,011
-923 -1,883
2006 2007
10,836 10,401
29,660 32,754
103,528 118,014
-73,868 -85,260
-9,888 -11,797
-13,800 -15,524
4,863
2,328 -1,477
851
-14,510 -12,715 -1,032 -1,324 -2,356
Foreign merchandise trade: price effects
Price increases dominated of the growth in non-oil exports.
Billion US$
Growth (yoy)
Description
2005
Total export
2006
2007 2008*
85.7 100.8 114.0
2006 2007 2008*
107.6
17.7
13.1
29.7
Non-oil and gas
66.4
79.6
91.9
83.3
19.8
15.5
23.4
Oil and gas
19.2
21.2
22.1
24.3
10.3
4.1
57.3
Total import
57.7
61.1
74.4
101.1
5.8
21.9
53.4
Non-oil and gas
40.2
42.1
52.5
75.2
4.6
24.8
47.4
Oil and gas
17.5
19.0
21.9
25.9
8.6
15.5
68.4
* January-September.
Source: BPS.
Trade balance of oil and oil products
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008*
Exports
5,228
5,621
6,241
8,146
8,169
9,226
10,891
Imports
3,217
3,928
5,831
6,797
7,853
9,057
8,407
(X - M)
2,011
1,694
410
1,349
316
169
2,484
Exports
1,308
1,548
1,654
1,932
2,844
2,871
2,778
Imports
3,309
3,583
5,892
10,646
11,080
12,734
17,337
(X - M)
-2,001
-2,035
-4,238
-8,714
-8,236
-9,863
-14,559
Exports
6,535
7,169
7,896
10,078
11,013
12,097
13,669
Imports
6,526
7,510
11,724
17,443
18,933
21,791
25,744
(X - M)
10
-342
-3,828
-7,365
-7,920
-9,694
-12,075
Crude Oil
Oil Products
Total
*January-September Source: BPS.
Trade balance of oil and gas
US$ million
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
2002
2003
2004
2005
Oil & oil products
•January-September
•Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
2006
Gas
2007
Oil & gas
2008*
Jasa di neraca pembayaran
(US$ millions)
1997 2005 2006 2007
A. Trade balance
B. Services, net
10,07
4 17,534 29,660 32,718
9,667 -9,122 -9,888 11,797
C. Income, net
-6,332 -12,927 -13,800 -15,524
D. Current transfer,
net
725 4,793 4,863 4,968
Current account 5,199
278 10,836 10,365
Source: Bank Indonesia
Another financial crisis?
Structure of balance of payments
(US$ millions)
15,000
15,000
10,000
10,000
5,000
5,000
0
0
-5,000
-5,000
-10,000
2006
2007
2008*
Capital & Financial Account, net
Errors & Omissions
Current Account
irst semester
urce: Bank Indonesia, July 2008.
-10,000
2006
2007
2008*
Direct Investment, net
Portfolio Investment, net
Other Investment, net
Indonesia: direct investment
Year
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008*
Abroad In Indonesia
-3,408
-3,065
-2,703
-4,790
-3,640
* First semester
Source: Bank Indonesia.
4,677
-241
-1,865
-4,551
-2,977
145
-597
1,896
8,336
4,914
6,928
5,704
Net
4,677
-241
-1,865
-4,551
-2,977
145
-597
-1,512
5,271
2,211
2,139
2,064
The role of foreign direct investment (1)
FDI flows as a percentage of gross fixed capital formation
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.
The role of foreign direct investment (2)
FDI stocks as a percentage of gross domestic product
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.
The role of FDI in Asia & South America, 2006
FDI flows to GFCF
Country
Venezuela
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
Indonesia
China
India
Argentina
Taiwan
Brazil
Vietnam
Philippines
Thailand
Peru
Bolivia
Malaysia
Pakistan
Ecuador
Chile
Cambodia
Singapore
Asia
South America
Percent
-2.1
3.9
6.2
6.4
8.0
8.7
9.6
10.3
10.5
12.5
14.1
16.5
18.9
19.5
20.1
24.1
24.8
28.3
38.9
79.5
12.9
13.1
Country
FDI stocks to GDP
Indonesia
India
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
China
Pakistan
Taiwan
Philippines
Peru
Brazil
Venezuela
Argentina
Thailand
Malaysia
Ecuador
Cambodia
Bolivia
Vietnam
Chile
Singapore
Asia
South America
Percent
5.2
5.7
6.3
10.9
11.1
11.4
14.2
14.6
20.7
20.8
25.0
27.4
33.0
36.0
39.9
41.6
44.6
54.8
55.4
159.0
24.9
26.0
Notes: FDI = Foreign Direct Investment (inward); GFCF = Gross Fixed Capital Formation; GDP = Gross Domestic Product. Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.
FDI performance and potential
Performance
Potential
High FDI
Potential
Low FDI
Potential
Source: UNCTAD, 2006
High FDI
Performance
Low FDI
Performance
Front-runners:
Brunei, China, Hong
Kong, Malaysia,
Singapore
Below potential:
Iran, Israel, Kuwait,
Philippines, Taiwan,
Thailand
Above potential:
Azerbaijan,
Tajikistan, Viet Nam
Under-performers:
Bangladesh, India,
Indonesia,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka
Japanese FDI: downward evaluation of Indonesia
Promising countries for overseas business operation
over the medium term (next 3 years or so)
Rank
1997
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1st
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
2nd
USA
USA
USA
Thiland
Thailand
Thailand
India
India
India
3rd
Indonesia
Thailand
Thailand
USA
USA
India
Thailand
Vietnam
Vietnam
4th
Thailand
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Vietnam
Viet nam
Thailand
Thailand
5th
India
Malaysia
India
Vietnam
India
USA
USA
USA
Russia
6th
Vetnam
Taiwan
Vietnam
India
Indonesia
Russia
Russia
Russia
USA
7th
Philippines
India
Taiwan
Korea
Korea
Indonesia
Korea
Brazil
Brazil
8th
Malaysia
Vietnam
Korea
Taiwan
Taiwan
Korea
Indonesia
Korea
Indonesia
9th
Brazil
Korea
Malaysia
Malaysia
Malaysia
Taiwan
Brazil
Indonesia
Korea
10th
Taiwan
Philippines
Singapore
Brazil
Russia
Malaysia
Taiwan
Taiwan
Taiwan
ce: JBIC.
Better foundation
64
Structure of foreign debts
Government
Private
Total
4%
14%
73%
96%
86%
As of 1st quarter 2008:
Total gross external debts:
Government (+ Monetary Authority)
= US$ 87.5 billions
Private Sectors
= US$ 62.2 billions
Total
= US$149.7 billions
Short-term external debts (in percent of foreign exchange
reserves) = 34.5%
Source: Bank Indonesia, August 2008.
External vulnerability: regional comparison
– economic perception
Too big, too high
Bloomberg commodity price
index
Should
be here
Source: CITI’s Asia Macro Views, “Measuring Asia’s External Vulnerability,”
8 October 2008
Siapkan kondisi terburuk
Krisis finansial global menyadarkan kita tentang
rapuhnya tatanan yang ada muncul tuntutan untuk
penataan ulang sistem finansial global dan interaksi
hubungan ekonomi antarbangsa.
Perekonomian kita justru cenderung mengarah ke pola
AS yang rapuh itu. Tentu konsekuensinya bisa lebih
parah karena kita tak punya kemewahan untuk
menjawab masalah sebagaimana yg dialami AS.
Perubahan pola pikir yang mendasar agar landasan
perekonomian nasional lebih kokoh:
Mencapai tujuan secara efektif
Lebih stabil atau volatilitas berkurang
Memenuhi rasa keadilan.
Economic temperature higher ..
Inflation returns 2 digit, y-o-y, %
18.38
18
14.55
14
10.60
11.77
10
8.81
8
7.20
2002
Source: BPS.
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Oct
Jul
2004
Oct
5.27
4.60
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
4
5.79
Apr
6
Apr-
12
Jan
percent
16
7.0
Source: Bank Indonesia.
7 -O c t
3 -J u l
3 -A p r
Jan
8 -O c t
5 -J u l
5 -A p r
4 -J a n
5 -O c t
6 -J u l
5 -A p r
9 -J a n
4 -O c t
5 -J u l
BI Rate bisa turun?
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
Persoalan likuiditas
LIBOR tenor 1 bln turun dr 4.5% pd awal Okt ke 2.3% pd
awal Nov. Bahkan overnite $ sdh di bawah 0.5%. Jadi, ,
likuiditas dan trust di pasar uang antarbank membaik.
Sejauh ini di Indonesia masih belum normal. Likuiditas
sudah membaik, tapi terkonsentrasi di beberapa bank,
sehingga pinjaman antarbank di Indonesia masih seret.
Penyebab likuiditas ketat di Indonesia:
Pemerintah tarik dana banyak, tapi spending lamban.
Intervensi BI untuk jaga Rupiah Jan-Sep US$16 miliar.
Pertumbuhan kredit pada Agustus 08 naik tinggi ke 35% y-o-y
(atau 20% ytd); sedangkan pertumbuhan dana masyarakat
turun ke 9,6% y-o-y (atau 1,0% ytd).
Government account at BI
200000
Rpbn
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Aug-04
Aug-05
Aug-06
Aug-07
Aug-08
8,500
10-Nov
27-Aug
18-Jun
9-Apr
28-Jan
8-Nov
24-Aug
18-Jun
5-Apr
26-Jan
15-Nov
1-Sep
22-Jun
12-Apr
1-Feb
23-Nov
9-Sep
1-Jul
21-Apr
8-Feb
1-Dec
16-Sep
7-Jul
8-Apr
Heart beat has been increasing …
(Rupiah per US$)
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
Source: Bank Indonesia
Depresiasi mata uang mewabah
Data s.d. 11/11/08
South Korean Won
-29.99
Australian Dollar
-23.89
New Zealand Dollar
-24.61
British Pound
-22.57
Canadian Dollar
Oct-Nov '08
-17.59
ytd
Thai Baht
-15.32
Philippine Peso
-15.14
Euro
-13.4
Indonesian Rupiah
-16.88
Malaysian Ringgit
-7.73
Swiss Franc
-4.35
Depresiasi
Singapore Dollar
Apresiasi
-4.12
Taiwanese Dollar
-1.4
Hong Kong Dollar
0.61
Chinese Renmimbi
7.08
Japanese Yen
14.5
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Multiinterpretatif dan self-interest
Imbauan Diperlukan, tetapi Tak Akan Efektif
(Kompas, Kamis, 20 November 2008)
Imbauan Bank Indonesia agar masyarakat mengonversi dollar
AS yang dimilikinya ke mata uang rupiah memang diperlukan
sebagai ajakan moral dari otoritas. Namun, langkah itu dinilai
tidak akan efektif menguatkan rupiah.
Menteri Perindustrian Fahmi Idris mengatakan, seruan
Gubernur BI kepada masyarakat untuk melepas kepemilikan
dollar AS di dalam negeri tidak ditujukan kepada para
pejabat dan masyarakat umum.
”Untuk rumah tangga, jika tidak perlu memegang dollar AS, ya
tidak usah memegang dollar AS, kecuali punya anak yang
sekolah di luar negeri,” ujarnya.
Fenomena US$ dan dampaknya pada Rp
Hampir semua mata uang melemah terhadap US$.
Perekonomian AS sedang sakit parah.
AS sangat haus utang, karena tekor di segala lini:
belanja > pendapatan;
konsumsi > produksi;
impor > ekspor (current account deficit);
pengeluaran pemerintah > penerimaan pemerintah (budget
deficit)
Jadi, terjadi anomali? It’s not that people want to own
dollars, its just that they want to own the alternatives
even less.
Karena itu, harga-harga emas dan komoditas juga turun.
JSX index dropped significantly
Business Week, 14-21 Maret 2007, hal.18.
2,900
2,800
(Jakarta composite index)
2,700
2,600
2,500
2,400
2,300
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
6-Oct
4-Aug
6-J un
9-Apr
6-F eb
30-N ov
2-Oc t
6-Aug
11-J un
11-Apr
12-F eb
13-D ec
11-Oc t
11-Aug
16-Jun
19-Apr
16-F eb
19-D ec
17-Oct
19-Aug
23-Jun
26-Apr
24-F eb
22-Oc t
800
24-D ec
900
Kunci penyelesaian
Bursa masih tersandera oleh saham-saham
Bakrie Group.
Jangan sampai saham-saham perusahaan batu
bara jatuh ke tangan asing bertentangan
dengan semangat divestasi kontrak karya.
Buka opsi bailout.
Bersih-bersih tuntas di bursa meningkatkan
kredibilitas bursa.
Sekarang Bakrie, lalu Bukaka dan Bosowa…
Wapres: Kelangsungan Hidup Bakrie Perlu
Dijaga
Kompas.com, Jumat, 14 November 2008 | 13:35 WIB
"Pemerintah berkewajiban menjaga
kelangsungan hidup pengusaha nasional. Bukan
hanya Bakrie, tetapi siapa saja supaya
usahanya tetap berjalan," ujar Wapres dalam
jumpa pers usai shalat Jumat di Istana Wapres,
Jakarta, (14/11).
Dengan pemikiran seperti itu, pembelaan pemerintah kepada
Bakrie masih dalam kategori wajar. Pemerintah sebelumnya
juga membela pengusaha lain seperti Astra, Danamon, BCA,
sejumlah bank lain, dan sejumlah konglomerat. "Masakan
membantu Bakrie tidak boleh," ujarnya.
http://www.kompas.com/read/xml/2008/11/14/13352853/Wapres.Kelangsungan.Hidup.Bakrie.Perlu.Dijaga
5
6.4
6.1
4.7
7
6.5
Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
6.6
Indonesia’s post-crisis journey
3
1
-1
-3
-5
-7
Gus Dur:
“Erratic/shaky”
-9
-11
Megawati:
Consolidation and
acceleration
-13
-15
SBY: Throws away
Momentum, and then made
correction
-17
-19
-21
Crisis
peak
Source: BPS.
Low quality — Sectoral growth rate
(2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %)
2006 2007 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08
Tradable
3.7
3.8
5.2
2.3
3.4
3.2
3.2
Agriculture
3.0
3.5
8.9
3.1
6.0
4.6
2.4
Mining & Quarrying
2.2
2.0
1.8
-2.1
-2.3
-0.9
1.6
Manufacturing
4.6
4.7
4.5
3.8
4.3
4.1
4.3
7.4
9.0
7.9
10.6
9.5
10.1
9.5
Electricity, Gas & Water
5.9
10.4
11.7
11.8
12.1
11.2
10.6
Construction
9.0
8.6
7.5
9.9
8.3
8.0
7.5
Trade, Hotel & Rest.
6.1
8.5
6.9
9.1
7.2
7.9
7.6
Transport & Comm.
13.6
14.4
12.5
17.4
19.7
19.6
17.1
Finance
5.7
8.0
8.0
8.6
8.3
8.7
8.5
Services
6.2
6.6
5.7
7.2
5.7
6.5
6.7
5.5
6.3
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.4
6.1
Non-Tradable
GDP
Source: BPS.
Real GDP growth: tradables (%)
1. Agriculture
a. Farm Food Crops
b. Non Food Crops
c. Others
2. Mining and Quarrying
a. Oil & Gas
b. Non Oil & Gas
c. Quarrying
3. Manufacturing Industries
a. Oil & Gas
b. Non Oil & Gas
* Food, Bev. & Tobacco
* Textile, Leath & Footw
* Wood & Forest Prod.
* Paper & Printing
* Fertilizer, Chem.& Rubber
* Cement/Non-Metal Quarry
* Iron & Steel
* Transport/Machine Equip.
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
2004
2.8%
2.9%
0.4%
3.9%
-4.5%
-4.3%
-8.0%
7.5%
6.4%
-2.0%
7.5%
1.4%
4.1%
-2.1%
7.6%
9.0%
9.5%
-2.6%
17.7%
2005
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
3.0%
3.2%
-1.8%
12.2%
7.7%
4.6%
-5.7%
5.9%
2.7%
1.3%
-0.9%
2.4%
8.8%
3.8%
-3.7%
12.4%
2006
3.4%
3.0%
3.8%
3.7%
1.7%
-1.1%
4.8%
8.3%
4.6%
-1.7%
5.3%
7.2%
1.2%
-0.7%
2.1%
4.5%
0.5%
4.7%
7.6%
2007
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
2.0%
-1.2%
5.5%
8.6%
4.7%
-0.1%
5.2%
5.1%
-3.7%
-1.7%
5.8%
5.7%
3.4%
1.7%
9.7%
H1-2008
5.3%
6.5%
6.6%
-1.4%
0.0%
-6.5%
8.1%
4.1%
0.7%
4.5%
-2.4%
-3.4%
0.3%
0.4%
3.5%
-0.5%
3.0%
15.8%
Share
14.0%
7.5%
1.9%
4.6%
8.3%
4.6%
2.7%
0.9%
26.9%
2.3%
24.5%
6.4%
2.6%
1.0%
1.3%
3.3%
0.8%
0.4%
8.6%
Pertumbuhan manufaktur besar & sedang
KL
BI
15
16
17
18
20
24
26
27
29
31
32
34
35
36
Uraian
Makanan & minuman
Pengolahan tembakau
Tekstil
Pakaian jadi
Kayu dan brg dr kayu
Kimia & brg dr kimia
Brg galian bkn logam
Logam dasar
Mesin & perlengkapannya
Mesin listrik lainnya dan
perlengkapannya
Radio, TV & peralatan komunikasi
Kendaraan bermotor
Alat angkutan, selain kendaraan
bermotor roda-4
Furnitur & pengolahan lainnya
Total industri manufaktur
*Triwulan ketiga. Sumber: BPS, 3 November 2008.
.
2006
11.9
-0.9
6.0
67.3
-41.0
25.8
11.8
22.1
-2.9
2007 2008*
5.2
-4.9
15.9
6.8
11.2
4.7
-23.0 -30.6
-16.4
0.6
35.8 -13.0
0.3 -15.1
12.1
-2.6
43.0 -17.3
-1.3
87.1
-46.5
-22.1
50.5
29.6
12.2
12.7
16.6
-36.6
-1.9
-1.6
-8.9
-14.1
5.6
48.0
43.4
1.6
Sumbangan manufaktur terhadap PDB, %
39
Swaziland
35
Thailand
32
Belarus
Ireland
31
Malaysia
31
Romania
31
Korea
29
Singapore
29
28
Indonesia
Source: BPS.
Slovenia
Source: World Bank.
27
Jumlah penyerapan tenaga kerja
Sektor
Pertambangan & Penggalian
Industri Pengolahan
Listrik, Gas, Air Bersih
Konstruksi
Perdagangan Besar dan Eceran
Akomodasi, Makan, Minum
Transportasi, Gudang, Komunikasi
Perantara Keuangan
Real Estat, Usaha Persewaan
Jasa Pendidikan
Jasa Kesehatan dan Kegiatan Sosial
Jasa Kemasyarakatan, Sosbud, Hiburan
Jasa Perseorangan layani rumahtangga
Jumlah
Sumber : BPS, Sensus Ekonomi 2006.
Tenaga
Kerja
633.711
11.785.057
161.775
724.521
17.207.494
5.137.200
3.561.066
905.088
1.833.224
4.027.744
732.557
2.756.960
203.77
49.670.167
Persenta
se
1,3
23,8
0,3
1,5
34,5
10,3
7,2
1,8
3,7
8,1
1,5
5,6
0,4
100,0
Real GDP growth: non-tradables (%)
4. Utilities
5. Constructions
6. Trade, Hotel & Rest.
a. Wholesale & Retail
b. Hotel
c. Restaurant
7. Transport & Comm.
a. Transport
* Railways
* Road
* Air Transport
b. Communication
8. Finance
a. Banks
b. Non Bank Financial
9. Services
Non Oil & Gas GDP
Real GDP
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
2004
5.3%
7.5%
5.7%
5.5%
7.9%
6.1%
13.4%
8.8%
-0.9%
5.0%
30.1%
22.9%
7.7%
6.0%
9.2%
5.4%
2005
6.3%
7.5%
8.3%
8.8%
6.2%
5.9%
12.8%
6.3%
-3.0%
4.8%
10.4%
24.6%
6.7%
4.5%
8.3%
5.2%
2006
5.8%
8.3%
6.4%
6.6%
5.2%
5.8%
14.4%
6.6%
6.4%
5.0%
10.7%
26.4%
5.5%
1.6%
7.1%
6.2%
2007
10.4%
8.6%
8.5%
8.9%
5.3%
6.8%
14.4%
2.8%
1.3%
3.6%
8.3%
29.5%
8.0%
8.0%
8.1%
6.6%
Share
0.7%
6.2%
17.3%
14.3%
0.7%
2.3%
7.3%
3.7%
0.0%
1.6%
0.6%
3.6%
9.4%
4.0%
0.8%
9.3%
6.0%
5.0%
6.6%
5.7%
6.1%
5.5%
6.9%
6.3%
92.7%
100.0%
Which industries are most at risk?
External Impact to Indonesia
Medium and Large Manufacturing Industries
100
1
3
Value Added Contribution to Medium and Large Mfg Industries
2
90
High import contents &
export oriented
80
14
70
Export/Omzet (%)
15
60
High local contents
& export oriented
(14.42%)
High import contents
& export oriented
(16.17%)
High local contents
& domestic oriented
(36.88%)
High import contents
& domestic oriented
(32.45%)
High local
contents &
export oriented
50
5
40
16
7
30
4
6
20
12
11
8 High import contents &
domestic market
9
10
10
13
0
0
10
20
High local contents &
domestic market
30
40
50
60
70
Import/Total Raw Materials (%)
Note:
1 = electric motor industry
2 = root & tuber processing industry
3 = fruit & vegetables canning industry
4 = radio, tv & electronic appliance industry
5 = sport shoes industry
6 = glass industry
7 = garment industry
8 = four or more wheeler's component industry
80
90
100
Source: Processed from BPS, Industry Statistics,
9 = four or2005
more wheel motor vehicles industry
10 = two or three wheel motor vehicles industry
11 = cement industry
12 = cooking (palm) oil industry
13 = clove cigarette industry
14 = wood furnishing industry
15 = crumb rubber industry
16 = pulp industry
Terima Kasih
Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com
Blog: www.faisalbasri.blogs.friendster.com