Bagian II GLOBALISASI DAN REGIONALISME - Bagian 2 Globalisasi and Reg 0805

Bagian II GLOBALISASI DAN REGIONALISME GLOBALISASI DAN REGIONALISME

  GLOBALIZATION

Globalization —the growing integration of economies

_{and societies around the world—has been one of the over the past few years. Rapid growth and poverty} most hotly-debated topics in international economics _{poor 20 years ago, has been a positive aspect of} reduction in China, India, and other countries that were _{significant international opposition over concerns that it} globalization. But globalization has also generated _{This site provides access to some of the most recent}

has increased inequality and environmental degradation.

  presentations on globalization and some of the leading

  GLOBALIZATION  INTEGRATION

   What is globalization? I prefer to use the term integration, because it is more precise than globalization. Economic integration occurs when countries lower barriers such as

import tariffs and open themselves up to

investment and trade with the rest of the

  A PRACTICAL DEFINITION For most economists globalization primarily means a _{the accompanying integration of national economies process of increasing international division of labor and integration is boosted by technological progress, in corporate investments and financial flows. This} through trade in goods and services, cross-border _{economies ultimately benefit through productivity and globalization is a win-win proposition, in which all} particular in transport and communications. Ideally, _{requiring constant change and adjustment. And it is not economies face rising cross-border competition,} growth effects. However, it also means that these

simply forced upon us, but is rather the result of forces of

  THREE WAVES OF GLOBALIZATION

  COMMUNICATION COSTS

  CHANGES IN THE PRICE OF A 3-MINUTE TRANSLANTIC CALL

  (in constant US, 1940-2000)

  … AND INDONESIA …

  2 ^{4 6 8 International calling price comparison for selected Asian countries (US$ per 3 minutes) 1996} _Current le _si ^a _{ea si} ^a _or ^e

  COMMUNICATION AND COMPUTER COSTS, 1960-2000

  INTERNET USERS

  TRANSPORT COSTS

  TRANSPORT COSTS, 1830-1990

  ….. BUT INDONESIA IS MORE EXPENSIVE _{Estimated Transport Cost Margins for Exports of Textiles}

  to the U.S.: Using Singapore as a Benchmark, 2000 _(Percent) Indonesia ^{Malaysia China}

  LOWER TARIFF RATE

  CHANGES IN TARIFF RATES SINCE THE EARLY 1980’S

  MORE REGIONAL INTEGRATIONS

WTO NOTIFICATIONS OF REGIONAL

  CAPITAL MOBILITY

  Stock Value of Global 1000 by Country of Origin _{In billions of U.S. dollars, 1996}

EMERGING STOCKMARKETS

  

_{Although they have bounced back in recent months, emerging stock markets have still done}

worse than America’s since January 1 ^{st 2000. The S&P 500 index has fallen by 25%. Morgan}

_{Stanley Capital International’s emerging-market index has fallen by 29%}

EMERGING STOCKMARKETS

  GLOBAL CAPITALIZATION AND THE LARGEST MARKETS, 1981-2000

  1990 ²⁰⁰¹ _{1. Industrial Bank of Japan 57.1 1. Citigroup 259.7 2. Fuji Bank 52.0 2. American International Group 207.4}

  3. Mitsui Taiyo Kobe Bank ^{46.3 3. HSBC Holdings 109.7} _{4. Sumitomo Bank 46.0 4. Berkshire Hathaway 100.2 5. Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank 44.8 5. Bank of America 99.0}

  6. Mithsubishi bank ^{44.0 6. Fannie Mae 79.5} _{7. Sanwa Bank 41.2 7. Wells Fargo 73.7 8. Nomura Securities 25.5 8. J.P. Morgan Chase 71.7}

  9. Long-Term Credit Bank ^{24.8 9. Royal Bank of Scotland 69.4} _{10. Allianz 24.6 10. UBS 67.1 11. Tokai Bank 21.3 11. Allianz 62.9}

  12. Mitsubhisi Tryst & Banking ^{17.2 12. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter 61.4} _{13. Deutsche Bank 16.4 13. Llyods TSB 60.3} WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DECADE MAKES

_{TOP FINANCIAL FIRMS, MARKET CAPITALISATION , END YEAR, $BN}

FULL CIRCLE

  MORE OPENNESS, FASTER GROWTH

  POWER SHIFT

  WAGES AND OPENNESS TO TRADE

  WIDENING GAP: FOREX TRADING & MERCHANDISE TRADE

  FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSACTION MUSHROOM

  1985= $150 billion per day Late 1990s=

  

The Fifth of the world’s people living in the

highest income countries now have 86% of world

output-the bottom fifth just 1%, 74 percent of

world telephone lines - to bottom fifth just 1.5%.

  WIDENING GAP

  TANZANIA VS. GOLDMAN SACHS

  Q: What’s the difference between Tanzania and Goldman Sachs?

A: One is an African country that makes $2.2 billion a year and shares it among 25 million people. The other is an investment bank

  JARINGAN BANK INTERNASIONAL _{ROCKEFELLERS BANK OF ENGLAND} OTTAMAN EASTMAN _{FIRST CITY NATIONAL SWISS BANKS SCHROEDER MIDLANDS GRINDLAYS CHASE-MANHATTAN SACHS} LEHMAN _{ROTHSCHILDS GERMANY} WARBURGS _{MORGAN FEDERAL RESERVE U.S.A.}

  _{MENDELSOHN (HOLLAND) KUHN-LOEB LAZARD FRERES BANK OF AUSTRIA} CITY Bank _GOLDMAN

I.M.F. &

  _{Marathon Mobil Shell} Standard _{OIL EXXON CHASE-MAHATTAN FEDERAL RESERVE Union} Gulf _{Continental CITY BANK CHEMICAL INSTITUTIONS EDUCATION TWA Boeing AIRWAYS}

  BANK _{FOUNDATIONS SEMINARIES International United} Eastern _{THE TRILATERAL BILDERBERGERS} Delta _{North-West MOTORS ROCKEFELLER EMPIRE UNITED NATIONS CLUB OF ROME Metropolitan Life Equitable Life}

  INSURANCE _{NBC, CBS NEWS CHEMICAL} New York Life _{CORPORATION C F R Newsweek Fortune, Look New York Times Time, Life DISTILLERS DEPARTEMENT STORE} COPPER _{Kuhn Loeb BANKS Los Angeles Times Washington Post}

  

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT BY MNCs

_{By host region-in billions of U.S. dollars, 1988 and 1998}

_$500 Developed Countries _{Developing Countries} $400 $300 $200 $100

  FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

  THE WAVE OF PRIVATIZATION

  GLOBAL PRIVATIZATION PROCEEDS (US$ billion) 150 100

  50 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

  GLOBAL AMOUNTS RAISED FROM PRIVATIZATION

  PRIVATIZATION PROCEEDS BY SECTOR, 1990-99 (US$ billions) 1990-84 _{1995-99 1990-99} ²⁰⁰ 150

  100

  50

  PRIVATIZATIONS BY MAIN SECTORS IN NON-OECD COUNTRIES, 1990-99

  PRIVATIZATION PROCEEDS BY REGION, 1990-99 (US$ billions)

  200 150 100

  50 ^{1 9 9 0 - 8 4 1 9 9 5 - 9 9 1 9 9 0 - 9 9}

  Chilgener _{Enersis Chile Telecom} Mexican Airline _{Aeromexico Mexico Telmex} Sport Toto _{Malaysian Airline System Kalang Countainer Terminal} British Airways _{National Freight British Telecom}

  WALFARE EFFECTS OF SELLING STATE-OWENED ENTERPRISES

• 10
^{10 20 30 40 50 60 Percent 155,0}

  CONCENTRATION OF THE 800 LARGEST CORPORATIONS, 2000

MAJOR CORPORATIONS AND THE

  POOREST COUNTRIES: A COMPARISON, 2000

  SALES OF LARGEST MNCs AND OUTPUT OF SELECTED COUNTRIES _{(in billions of U.S. dollars, 1998)} AUSTRIA _{General Motors} GREECE _Ford DENMARK _Wal-Mart CZECH REPUBLIC _Misubishi FINLAND _Exxon

  WE USED TO GROW TOGETHER, NOW WE’RE GROWING APART _{Real Family Income Growth Adjusted for Inflation}

WHO OWN WHAT IN THE USA

  Bottom 90% Top 10% Top 1% Assets Stocks (%)

  15

  84

  42 Bonds (%)

  9

  90

  55 Business

  7

  92

  71

  DIVERGENT PATHS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN THE 1990s

  2 ^{4 6 GDP per capita growth rate (%)} _{Less globalized countries} ^{Rich countries More globalized developing countries}

  A HUGE INCOME GAP REMAINS

  THE IRONY OF FOREIGN AID _s 250 _{200 201}

  n _{io ill b 150 124 U S $} 100 _{50 58 Annual government subsidies to agricultural producers in rich countries} Annual foreign aid to developing countries

  A F T A

• Prinsip :

  Prinsip :

  Perdagangan barang lintas Asean bebas hambatan, Perdagangan barang lintas Asean bebas hambatan, baik tariff maupun non-tariff mulai 2002, bukan baik tariff maupun non-tariff mulai 2002, bukan 2003.

  2003.

• Tiga Kelompok Barang

  Tiga Kelompok Barang:

1) Normal

  Negara ^{Biaya Produksi Dengan Bea Masuk 50% FTA A+B} A

  50

  50

  50 B

  40

  60

  40 FTA: TRADE DIVERSION Negara ^{Biaya Produksi Dengan Bea Masuk} _100% ^{FTA A+B} A

  50

  50

  50 B

  40

  80

  40 FTA: TRADE CREATION

  BEYOND AFTA (1)

• Di masa lalu pasar Asean tersegmentasi berdasarkan

  Di masa lalu pasar Asean tersegmentasi berdasarkan

negara, karena setiap negara menerapkan bea masuk

negara, karena setiap negara menerapkan bea masuk

yang relatif tinggi untuk barang-barang impor. yang relatif tinggi untuk barang-barang impor.
• Keadaan ini mendorong MNCs mendirikan fasilitas

  Keadaan ini mendorong MNCs mendirikan fasilitas produksi (pabrik) di masing-masing negara untuk di jual di produksi (pabrik) di masing-masing negara untuk di jual di pasar yang bersangkutan. pasar yang bersangkutan.

• Cara ini dilakukan untuk menerobos barikade tarif bea

  Cara ini dilakukan untuk menerobos barikade tarif bea masuk. masuk.

• Dengan Afta, pasar Asean menjadi terintegrasi, sehingga

  Dengan Afta, pasar Asean menjadi terintegrasi, sehingga

  BEYOND AFTA (2)

• Maka, keputusan strategisnya bagi MNCs ialah memilih

  

Maka, keputusan strategisnya bagi MNCs ialah memilih

lokasi produksi yang paling baik yang bisa meningkatkan lokasi produksi yang paling baik yang bisa meningkatkan daya saing di pasar Asean secara keseluruhan. daya saing di pasar Asean secara keseluruhan.
• Barang yang diproduksi di suatu negara akan dipasarkan

  Barang yang diproduksi di suatu negara akan dipasarkan ke seluruh negara Asean. ke seluruh negara Asean.

• Persaingan di antara negara Asean ialah pada aspek

  Persaingan di antara negara Asean ialah pada aspek iklim iklim

EPA INDONESIA-JEPANG

• baru hubungan ekonomi Indonesia-Jepang? EPA sebagai bagian dari Partners for New Challenges

  Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) membuka era

• (PNC) _{Strategic Investment Action Plan (SIAP) } Unsur lainnya dari PNC:
• _{Penanggulangan bencana  Kemaritiman} 
antara lain: _{ Kemudahan di bidang kepabeanan}

   _{Prosedur dan pelayanan investasi dan perdagangan  Ketenagakerjaan}  Standardisasi produk _{ Competition policy}

  

EPA = FTA PLUS

• _{FTA jadi salah satu alternatif akselerasi liberalisasi perdagangan bebas bilateral di tengah ketakjelasan prospek multilateralisme dan} regionalisme (APEC yang didominasi isu nonekonomi). _{ Plus-nya menyangkut investment- and trade-related issues seperti}

PROPORTION OF COUNTRIES WITH DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENTS

  70 ₄₀

  ₆₀

  50 ₂₀

  30

  10