Gerd Leonhard Presentation at RadioDays 2007

Gerd Leonhard
Presentation at RadioDays 2007

Future or no future for radio?
www.mediafuturist.com

New book out next week:
Free at
www.endofcontrol.com
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

1

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Radio today: competition coming from all sides

Social Networks and Blogs
Car Audio Systems

Wimax Music
Ipod
Podcasts
iphone
Satellite Radio
Mobile Music

What’s good about all this: Choice
What’s bad about all this: The Paradox of Choice
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

2

SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Across the world, 1.1 Billion
People use the Internet, 1.4
Billion watch TV, and 2.2 Billion

use Mobile Phones

So HOW will RADIO be consumed in the Future,
and what is its value proposition (both for music and for audio)
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

3

The Net Generation:

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

I program my media
- it does not program
me!

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com


Tuesday, March 4, 2008

4

The key drivers of Change

SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• Broadband
• Mobility
• Social Networks
• Blogs and User Generated Content (UGC)
• Total Fragmentation of the Audiences
• Globalization (and localization)
• Convergence
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

5


SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

6

SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

7

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

We a re hea d in g i nt o a a c ce l e ra t in g

c o n verg en ce o f Au d io a n d Vi d eo .

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

8

A few shocking facts from the U.S.

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

9

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84


In the US: tuning
out of Radio is
guaranteed

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

10

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Radio ad
revenues
are not
going
away they just
won’t be
growing.


Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

11

and then comes...

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

12

SMS +41 79 79 353 84

‘How’ will matter less and less.

‘What’ will matter more and more
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com


Tuesday, March 4, 2008

13

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Remember when Radio had a

Monopoly in
Attention?

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

14

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84


three

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

15

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Imagine a page, a button, a Canvas where
you simply put all the stations that you
want to listen to.
A canvas that you can always have with
you (see Netvibes, iGoogle), no matter
how you receive the content.

Radio fills the need
to filter Choice.
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com


Tuesday, March 4, 2008

16

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Consumers are, now more than ever before,
seeking consolidated, trustworthy content,
recognition and community - even more when it
comes to mobile and Internet entertainment

This is still the biggest
opportunity in Radio.
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

17


Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

New technologies often disrupt ecosystems
but always make the market bigger
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

18

The De-Walling:

SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• Music formats will be either open or 100% compatible DRM is the past
• Music as a service will become a default setting, and
the ‘sell units’ paradigm is ending
• Creation of new revenue flows will be more important
than controlling distribution
• The People formerly known as Consumers are gaining
more power by the minute
• Music licensing will be drastically simplified

Isn’t Radio the definition
of Music as a Service?
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

19

Thanks to the Net Generation & the
Digital Natives,

Social Networks on the
Internet are the

Next Radio
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

20

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Global Social Networking is already bigger than Radio in the U.S.

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

21

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

The People formerly
known as Listeners
(aka Consumers)

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

22

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

The Medium formerly
known as Radio

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

23

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Soon, most of them will
get most of their ‘Radio’
via any digital network
- the Internet dominates
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

24

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Why is your station not broadcasting on
Facebook, Lunarstorm, Sulekha.net or Orkut?

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

25

Because

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

In all Media, Push is
becoming Pull

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

26

Just different words for the same thing...

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Broadcasting
Streaming Tubesocking
Public
Playlisting
Performance
Listening Streamripping

Download
PodcatchingCopy
Buffering
Digital
Caching
Renting
Phonographic
Delivery (DPD)
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

27

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

The most important development in the
Context of Radio Licensing is The

Flat Rate for Digital Music

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

28

And for Public Radio

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

The Net Generation will not
continue to pay a public
Radio or TV License without
archiving, time-shifting,
place-shifting and device
shifting - i.e. with build-in
DELIVERY options
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

29

The Reality is:

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• The Internet is a Giant Copy Machine
• Digital Radio IS Distribution
• From the listeners standpoint, Digital Radio
MUST offer time / place / device shifting
which is...



Distribution

Case in point: RSS and the Google Reader

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

30

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

The bottom line:
In media, Friction is now

Fiction
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

31

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Very soon listening IS receiving

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

32

A Logic Challenge

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Radio is Free
Records / CDs are not

If the Internet is the New
Radio are Copies are ‘free’ ?

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

33

EU Radio in 3-5 years

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• 100% digital (in all its variations), and 50%
converged with the Net
• All stations everywhere,anytime, any way
• Video and Audio converge
• Community features are a standard
• Geography fades, borders become soft
• License is both questioned and then expanded
(based on a Flat Rate for Digital Music)
• Advertising2.0 emerges
• Public Radio offers full archives on-demand
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

34

EU Radio in 10 years

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• The term “Radio” simply refers to
‘curated programming’
• Public radio is the #1 curator of a huge
digital library
• The ‘Copy versus Performance’ (listen
versus own) distinction is over
• Everything is on demand - few or
nothing remains scheduled
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

35

The trigger factors:

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• Highspeed Wireless Internet everywhere
• WiBro in the car
• 4G Wireless cell phone networks fully
deployed
How
long?
• Radios with WLAN chips
• Cell phones with DAB receivers (and WLAN)
• Mobile computing devices that talk
effortlessly to each other
• Web5.0 as easy as a TV remote control
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

36

What is good about Radio?
What is good about Audio on the Internet?

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84











***
*** **
***
***
****

Free or feels like free
Ubiquitous
Easy to use for anyone
Does not require engagement
Trusted, professional curators
Known brands
Local context
Strong tradition
Great way to discover music

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

37

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Radio’s Future is on the
Internet, with the Net
Generation, and with fully
integrated Content Delivery

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

38

The 5 Inevitables

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

1.Radio must support time-shifting
2.Radio must support space-shifting
3.Radio must support sharing
4.Radio must support interactivity
5.Radio must support community

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

39

Radio is a perfect fit for the experience economy

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

40

This is where the growth is

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

41

The new currencies in Media

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• Getting (and keeping) attention
• Trust
• Influence
• Reputation

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

42

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

And advertising follows the trends of
mass-personalization
Souce: Booz Hamilton Report

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

43

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

From
Impression to

Relevance
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

44

Integrate the audience! Provide a
platform!

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

The NYT went ‘open access’ 3 days ago - after
maintaining a wall for the past 5 years (incl. RSS)
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

45

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

You must take Radio’s walls down,
too:
• Archive Access
• Web-based access on all platforms
• Radio as social medium
Don’t hide behind any wall.

Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

46

Changes in the content industries

Content 1.0

Content 2.0

Distribution

Attention

Shelf Space

Mind-share

Mass Marketing
Monolog

Niche Marketing
Dialog
Influence &
Reputation

Control
Control

Attention & Trust
Gerd Leonhard, Music & Media Futurist

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

47

So if I ran the circus, I would...

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• Widgetize my radio stations (syndicate radio shows
via embedded players), turn them into channels on
social networks
• Turn my listeners into active network members, roll
out Engagement programs
• Offer archives of everything, no matter what
• Mobilize my radio station
• Demand extended licensing grants, and one-stop
licensing
• Lobby for a digital music flat rate
• Push converged service: audio, video, text
• Build my brand and become an EXPERIENCE
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

48

Thanks for listening
www.mediafuturist.com

New book out next week:
Free at
www.endofcontrol.com
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

49