A2. Pillai-Sustainable Energy Development

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Presented by – G M PILLAI

FOUNDER DIRECTOR GENERAL

WORLD INSTITUTE OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, PUNE

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

At

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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: AN INTRODUCTION - 1

 Development is dependent on natural resources which are finite – we have

only one earth.

 Natural resources can be broadly classified into ‘non-renewable’ and

renewable.

 The rates of use of non-renewable resources should not exceed the rate at

which sustainable renewable substitutes are developed.

 The rates of use of renewable resources should not exceed their rates of

generation.

 Efficiency should be maximised to conserve resources, prolong product

life and enhance quality.

 Rates of pollution emission should not exceed the assimilative capacity of

the environment.

 Sustainability does not mean no growth. Instead of physical expansion, it

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

We should learn to discriminate between kinds of growth

and purposes of growth. Only those that would actually

serve real social goals and enhance sustainability should

be chosen.



Provision of basic needs to maximum or all citizens

—

‘needs

of

having’

and

‘needs

of

being’

should be priority.



Employment potential should be maximised through

decentralized and labour-intensive systems of production.



A sustainable society needs to be technically or culturally

primitive.



Diversity in nature and culture should be encouraged.

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

Cultural and local autonomy should be maximised. Also,

issues of gender and race should be given due

importance.



Create a society with maximum human freedom, dignity

and awareness.



Always value the different dimensions of sustainability:

societal, environmental and ethical.



Speed up response times and improve signals.



Slow down and eventually stop exponential growth of

population and physical capital. Happy human existence

does not require constant physical examination.

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Sustainable Development can be achieved only if you have

sustainable energy.

The three main reasons that necessitate a transition to a

sustainable energy system:



Depletion and extinction of fossil fuels.



Energy autonomy / independence.



Climate change and its potentially catastrophic

consequences.

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FOSSIL FUEL INTERVAL: FOR HOW LONG?

1. OIL

Conventional World Oil Production

Source: Data-HIS Energy, BP 2005

Forecast – LBST 2005 (based on ASPO scenario)

WORLD

 Total proven world oil reserves: 1,200.7 billion barrels (BP)

1,266 billion barrels (IEA)

 Production rate:~ 84 m barrels/day.

 These reserves will last for ~ 41

years at today’s consumption; but

consumption is increasing every year.

 New Shale Oil finds will increase supplies in countries like the USA.

INDIA

 Total proven reserves at end 2006: 5700 million barrels.

 0.5% of world reserves.

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FOSSIL FUEL INTERVAL: FOR HOW LONG?

2. COAL

World Coal Production: History & Scenario

Hard Coal – EUR = 950 billion tonnes, Reserves =750 billion tonnes, bituminous 480 billion tonnes, sub bituminous 270 billion tonnes Legend: 1Mtoe= 1.5 Mt-hardcoal and 3 Mt-lignite

R/P=Reserve-to-Production Ratio, EUR=Estimated Ultimate Recovery

WORLD

 Reserves / Production Ratio: 155 years

 Ave. Annual Increase 2002-2005: 2.5%

 Coal can provide the energy needs for a while, but with serious climatic

consequences (Acid rain, CO₂

emissions, global climate change). INDIA

 Extractable reserves of 52.24 billion tonnes

 Annual consumption now at 500 million tonnes; annual consumption will be 1000 million tonnes by 2020 and 2000 million tonnes by 2030.

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FOSSIL FUEL INTERVAL: FOR HOW LONG?

3. NATURAL GAS

World Natural Gas Production

Data: HIS Energy, BP 2005

Forecast: LBST 2005 (based on ASPO scenario)

WORLD

 Proven world natural gas reserves (2004) 179.5 trillion m3

 R/P Ratio in 2004 ~ 67 years.

 Production of natural gas has been rising at an average rate of 2.5% over the past 4 years.

 At 2.5% increase, proven reserves will finish much earlier.

 New Shale Gas finds might alter this in some countries.

INDIA

 Proven reserves at end 2010: 1.5 Trillion cubic metre

 0.6% of world reserves.  R/P ratio of 33 years.

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FOSSIL FUELS: THE 2030 SPIKE

Source: Oil, Gas, Coal-Nuclear Scenario, LBST 2005 Coal

Plateau at 4000

Natural Gas

-5% 2025 -3% 2035-2070

Oil

-5% 2010-2020 -3% 2020-2040 -2% 2050-2050 -1% 2050-2100

 What is important is not depletion per se, but peaking of production.

 Peaking of conventional oil expected around 2010-15.

 After peaking, the reserves will deplete in reverse mode, as much as, or more than production was growing before peaking.

 Between 2010 and 2025, most fossil fuels will peak, and then decline.

 RESOURCE NATIONALISM WILL ACCELERATE WORLD PEAKING.

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 0.74°C warming during past 100 years.

 Doubling of CO₂ to 560 ppm will result in warming of 2°C to 4.5°C during 21st _century.

 1°C to 2°C increase expected in the next 40 years as per IPCC.

Emission type Pre-indl Level

2005 levels

CO₂ 280 ppm 379 ppm CH₄ 715 ppb 1774 ppb N₂O 270 ppb 319 ppb

Together the concentration is approx. 439-459 ppm CO₂

equivalent

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Source: IPCC Report

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POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

 Water Impacts

 Drying up of water sources and

competition; bad water quality

 Melting of glaciers

 Impacts on Sea & Coastal Areas

 Acidity increase

 Sea level rise (many coastal

cities to be submerged)

 Flooding of islands and

low-lying areas.

 Species Loss

 Extinction of thousands of

plants and animal species.

 Loss of habitats.

 Health Impacts

 Weather related mortality

 Infectious diseases

 Air quality induced respiratory

diseases

 Agricultural Impacts

 Reduced crop yields (10_C

increase = 25% decrease in yield)

 Increased demand for irrigation

 Forest Impacts

 Forest destruction through

drying up, fires, reduced productivity, etc.

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 Arctic ice caps and glaciers have

lost 400 cubic kilometers of ice in 40 years.

 Permafrost is dissolving into mud

and lakes.

 Increased frequency of extreme

weather events like hurricanes and cyclones.

 Erratic behavior of rainfall.

 Increased desertification in many

areas.

 Large-scale melting of Himalayan

glaciers seen from satellite data.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS (contd….)

ALREADY VISIBLE GLOBAL IMPACTS POTENTIAL INDIAN IMPACTS

 Flooding of coastal areas.

 Melting of Himalayan glaciers –

major impact by 2050 (overwhelming scientific evidence).

 Resultant initial flooding and

subsequent drying up of glacial rivers of northern India, with devastating consequence for agriculture, people and economy.

 Drastic reduction in forest cover.

 Reduced agricultural output in

future.

 Widespread migrations.

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

Wind Power



Solar Power



Hydro Power (Eco-friendly

and human-scale projects)



Biomass based power

(including Biowaste)



Geothermal Energy



Wave and Tidal Power

The Green Energy Technologies & Challenges

THE CONTOURS OF A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEM



Infirmity of wind and

solar power



Grid balancing required



Forecasting, despatch,

storage, etc… as

emerging options



Smart grid



Green Power Corridor

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Renewable Energy Share of Global Energy Consumption, 2011

Global Renewable Energy Capacities (GW) by end 2012

 Renewables contributed 19% of the global

final energy consumption in 2011. Of this, nearly half came from traditional biomass; heat energy from modern renewable sources accounted for 4.1%; hydropower made up about 3.7%; and about 1.9% was provided by power from wind, solar, geothermal, biomass and biofuels.

 Total renewable power capacity worldwide

exceeded 1,470 GW in 2012, with hydropower contributing 990 GW, and other renewables i.e. wind, solar, biopower, ocean power and geothermal together contributing to more than 480 GW.

 Global investments in the RE sector

quadrupled over last decade, reaching a record high of $ 279 billion in 2011, falling slightly to $ 244 billion in 2012.

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY: GLOBAL STATUS

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THE LEADING TECHNOLOGIES: WIND POWER

Offshore Wind Power

Onshore Wind Power

 The leading renewable power technology in the world today. Capacity utilization factor of 25% to 40%.

 Global installed capacity as of December 2012 was 2,82,587 MW. In 2012 alone, 44,799 MW was added.

 The global offshore installed capacity is 5,415 MW.

 Average annual growth rates in the past ten years is around 22%.

 Global Wind Energy Council predicts that by 2020, the total installed capacity would be 8,32,251 MW in the moderate growth scenario.

 Installed capacity in India is 19,051 MW as on 31 March 2013. In 2012-13, India added more 1,700 MW.

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 Fast growing technology with annual growth of 40%. Efficiency of 15% –20%.  Expected to achieve grid-parity around

2016-17.

THE LEADING TECHNOLOGIES: SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS

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 New technology with close to 40% efficiency.  First commercial installation of about 3 MW in

Puertallano, Spain (2007-2009).

 Worldwide installations now gaining momentum.

 59 MW grid-connected plant coming up in Taiwan.

 30 MW plant coming up in Alamosa in Southern Colorado, USA.

 Very promising high-efficiency technology, but challenges remain.

Concentrated Photovoltaics (CPV) Solar PV

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 Many different technologies, the four main ones being parabolic trough, CSP tower, Linear Fresnel reflectors and Parabolic Dish with Stirling Engine.

 Parabolic trough is a tried and tested technology.USA has a 16-year old project of over 350 MW.

 Installed global capacity at 1800 MW by end 2011. As of now, this has increased to 2,498 MW.

(www.csp-world.com)

LEADING TECHNOLOGIES

CONCENTRATED SOLAR THERMAL POWER (CSP)

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CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS -

INFIRMITY AND TRANSMISSION

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Compressed Air Energy Storage System

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

In the European Union, plans are

being worked out for 100%

renewable power by 2050.



IPCC scenarios require 80%

reduction of emissions by 2050 if

climate change is to be contained

at 2°C by then.



This would require phasing out

coal emissions completely over

the 2010-2030 period.



James Hansen calls coal-based

power projects

“Factories

of

Death

.

”

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 Fast growing technology with annual growth of 40%. Efficiency of 15% –20%.

 Expected to achieve grid-parity around 2016-17.

THE LEADING TECHNOLOGIES: SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS

16

 New technology with close to 40% efficiency.

 First commercial installation of about 3 MW in Puertallano, Spain (2007-2009).

 Worldwide installations now gaining momentum.

 59 MW grid-connected plant coming up in Taiwan.

 30 MW plant coming up in Alamosa in Southern Colorado, USA.

 Very promising high-efficiency technology, but challenges remain.

Concentrated Photovoltaics (CPV)

Solar PV

 Many different technologies, the four main ones being parabolic trough, CSP tower, Linear Fresnel reflectors and Parabolic Dish with Stirling Engine.

 Parabolic trough is a tried and tested technology.USA has a 16-year old project of over 350 MW.

 Installed global capacity at 1800 MW by end 2011. As of now, this has increased to 2,498 MW.

(www.csp-world.com)

LEADING TECHNOLOGIES

CONCENTRATED SOLAR THERMAL POWER (CSP)

18

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CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS -

INFIRMITY AND TRANSMISSION

Compressed Air Energy Storage System

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20

20



In the European Union, plans are

being worked out for 100%

renewable power by 2050.



IPCC scenarios require 80%

reduction of emissions by 2050 if

climate change is to be contained

at 2°C by then.



This would require phasing out

coal emissions completely over

the 2010-2030 period.



James Hansen calls coal-based

power projects

“Factories

of

Death

.

”