Conclusions Limitations and Future Research Agenda

CHAPTER V CONCLUSIONS, LIMITATIONS, AND FUTURE RESEARCH

AGENDA

5.1 Conclusions

Table 5.1 describes that the result of interpretation of ASEAN-10 countries six economic indicators that consist of; CPI, RER, GFER, GRVT, GRRVT, and GRYPC, are Convergence. This result proved the hypotheses of this research study, there are: 1. There is a good prospect of forming a common currency area in ASEAN- 10 that consist of Indonesia, Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia. The six economic indicators that consist of; 1 Consumer Price Indices CPI, 2 Real Exchange Rate in US dollars RER, 3 Growth rates of Foreign Exchange Reserves GFER, 4 Growth rates of Real Volume of Trade GRVT, 5 Growth rate of Real Relative Volume of Trade GRRVT, 6 Growth rates of Per Capita Real GDP at factor cost GRYPC, are supporting the feasibility of ASEAN-10 countries to creating common currency area. 2. This research result that there is a possibility for convergence model to be alternative of OCA Optimum Currency Area model in term of evaluate the feasibility of common currency area. Table 5.1 Result Interpretation Test Summary β coefficient value Result CPI Negative Convergence RER Negative Convergence GFER Negative Convergence GRVT Negative Convergence GRRVT Negative Convergence GRYPC Negative Convergence Source: Eviews-6, 2010.

5.2 Limitations and Future Research Agenda

1. This research only observed the feasibility of ASEAN-10 countries for ‘Common Currency Area’ by forming six economic indicators that consist of; CPI, RER, GFER, GRVT, GRRVT, and GRYPC. 2. Although in the main journal there are seven economic indicators that consist of; Call Money Rate, CPI, RER, GFER, GRVT, GRRVT, and GRYPC, in this research study author omitted Call Money Rate economic indicator, because six economic indicators in this research study are enough to support the research model. 3. Call Money Rate indicator is omitted because of the difficulties in collecting data. The data are not available for ASEAN-10 countries. 4. Further study will certainly be required in order to advance the ASEAN-10 Single Currency, because this research study is still in the second stage of ‘The Transition to Monetary Union’ according to Yuen, 1999. 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85.9 125.6

129 135.8 139.6 100 3 Singapore 102.2 105.8 108.2 111.5 96.7 115 117.4 117 117.1 101.1 4 Thailand 101.2 110 113.7 119.5 82.8 133.8 141.2 152.7 153.2 101.9 5 Philippines 112.88 129.3 139.1 151.7 108 175.6 185.8 203.9 217.4 152.3 6 Laos 97.03 124.4 133.5 142.5 170.4 190.8 228.2 433.7 990.6 108.4 7 Brunei 83.48

84.58 88.17

90.34 95.73

97.64 99.32 98.88

98.47 100

8 Cambodia 29 58 60.32

7.35 1.06

10.07 3.17

14.81 4.01

0.79 9 Myanmar Burma

97.5 125.96

161.3 212.4 263.9 306.86 384.1 498.1 754.6 893.4 10 Vietnam 88.31 252.3 273.3 298.9 347.4 105.7 109.1 117.6 122.6 419 COUNTRY NAME 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 Indonesia 391.11 433.5 462 141.27 156.03 145.89 148.67 113.86 113.78 2 Malaysia 101.42 103.2 104.4 105.86 108.99 102.6 105 114.2 112.5 3 Singapore 102.1 101.7 102.2 100 100.4 101.4 103.5 110.3 110.5 4 Thailand 103.5 104.2 106.1

95.3 96.8

99 100 102.3 102.6 5 Philippines 161.6 166.4 171.4 120.6 129.8 137.9 141.8 155 160 6 Laos 116.8 129.3 149.3 164.9 176.7 188.7 197.3 203.6 200.3 7 Brunei 100.6

98.27 98.53

99.36 100.57

102 102.8 105.6 107.4 8 Cambodia 0.6

3.21 1.22

107.94 114.03 121.46 142.03 126.9 134 9 Myanmar Burma 151.7 288.6 394.3 271.6 297.05 375.17 498.6 630.23 754.38 10 Vietnam 434.4 448.5 462.4 114.9 124.38 133.71 144.8 178.1 190.39