Patient Survival by Diabetic Status The presence of diabetes mellitus has a major
31 90 mmHg, a diastolic blood pressure of less than 70
mmHg was associated with a 28 higher risk of death while a diastolic blood pressure of 90-99
mmHg and 100 mmHg or more was associated with a 1.3 and 2.2 times higher mortality risk
respectively. The U-shaped relationship has also been reported in other series. [14][15] After
adjustment for diastolic blood pressure and other risk factors, systolic blood pressure and pulse
pressure did not independently affect mortality. Anaemia was associated with increased
mortality and poorer quality of life.[16] A haemoglobin level of less than 8gdl was associated
with a 2.2 times higher risk of death compared to a haemoglobin level of 10-12gdl; while a
haemoglobin level of 8-10gdl was associated with a 31 increase in mortality. The lowest risk of death
was recorded in patients with haemoglobin of 11- 12gdl but this was not statistically significant
compared to the reference group haemoglobin 10- 11gdl. There was no significant improvement in
survival with haemoglobin level of more than 11gdl.
The USRDS
data showed
that serum
phosphate of more than 2.08 mmoll was associated with a 27 increase risk of death.[17]
Using a timed average phosphate concentration over 2 years in more than 12,000 patients, Ganesh
et al showed that hyperphosphataemia serum phosphate 2.08 mmoll was associated with a
41 risk of death from cardiovascular disease and a 20 risk of sudden death.[18] Our data showed
that hyperphosphataemia had a significant impact on death only when serum phosphate was 2.4
mmoll or higher - a serum phosphate level of 2.4 to 2.6 moll resulted in a 71 increase risk of mortality
compared to the reference range of 1.6 to 2.0 mmoll. Hypercalcaemia serum calcium 2.6 mmoll
or more was associated with a 24 increased risk of death compared to the reference range of 2.2 to
2.6 mmoll in our dialysis population . Foley et al reported that chronic hypocalcaemia was
associated with more than two times increased risk of mortality in contrast to our results which did not
show any significant increased risk of mortality.[19] The reasons for the discrepancy are unclear.
Patients with a low calcium phosphate product less than 3.5 mmol
2
l
2
was associated with a 31 higher risk of mortality when compared to those with
normal calcium phosphate product 3.5-4.5 mmol
2
l
2
. High calcium phosphate product did not adversely affect survival. This differs from other
series where high calcium phosphate product was also associated with increased mortality.[20]
Hepatitis B antigenaemia had no effect on patient survival and this is consistent with other reports.[21]
[22] A positive hepatitis C virus HCV antibody also did not confer an increase in risk of mortality.
However this differs from experience from other centres where a positive HCV antibody was
associated with a higher relative risk of death compared to patients negative for HCV antibody.
[23-26]
Conclusion In conclusion survival of our dialysis patients over
the last 10 years is comparable to those reported from other centresregistries. The reasons for
poorer survival in recent years need to be identified and corrective measures implemented.
Table 3.6 Adjusted hazard ratio for mortality of dialysis patients 1997-2002 cohort Factors
N Hazard ratio
95 CI P value
Age years: 0-
≤14ref. 157
1.00 15-
≤24 417
1.82 0.89,3.71
0.100 25-
≤34 727
1.58 0.79,3.16
0.198 35-
≤44 1223
1.97 1.00,3.89
0.049 45-
≤54 1885
3.12 1.60,6.09
0.001 55-
≤64 1907
4.03 2.06,7.89
0.000 ≥65
1094 5.76
2.92,11.33 0.000
Gender: Male ref.
4113 1.00
Female 3297
0.86 0.75, 0.97
0.015 Primary diagnosis:
UnknownUncertain ref. 2168
1.00 Diabetes mellitus
2915 2.14
1.81,2.52 0.000
GN SLE 908
1.04 0.79,1.35
0.777 Polycystic kidney
119 1.61
0.99,2.63 0.057
Obstructive Nephropathy 361
1.39 1.05,1.85
0.023 Others
939 1.23
0.98,1.53 0.073
Year start dialysis 1997-8 ref.
1915 1.00
1999-2000 2652
1.21 1.05,1.39
0.009 2001-2002
2843 1.27
1.06,1.53 0.010
Modality: CAPD ref.
1243 1.74
1.51,2.00 0.000
HD 6167
1.00 BMI:
18.5 1080
1.41 1.15,1.74
0.001 18.5-25
3635 1.27
1.10,1.46 0.001
≥25ref. 1444
1.00
32
Factors N
Hazard ratio 95 CI
P value
Serum albumin gL 30
558 4.36
3.41,5.56 0.000
30-35 1255
2.31 1.91,2.81
0.000 35-40
2861 1.39
1.17,1.64 0.000
≥ 40ref. 2170
1.00 Serum cholesterol mmoll:
3.2 197
1.45 1.10,1.92
0.010 3.2-5.2
2987 1.00
0.88,1.13 0.996
≥5.2ref. 2537
1.00 KTV
1 274
1.73 1.23,2.43
0.002 1.0-1.2
898 1.21
0.96,1.51 0.106
1.2-1.4ref. 1439
1.00 1.4-1.6
1422 0.97
0.80,1.18 0.763
1.6 1823
0.84 0.67,1.05
0.126 Diastolic BP:
70 824
1.23 1.01,1.49
0.036 70-80
2193 1.06
0.92,1.22 0.450
80-90ref. 2800
1.00 90-100
1186 1.31
1.09,1.58 0.004
≥100 270
2.20 1.63,2.98
0.000 Haemoglobin gdl:
8 1610
2.17 1.78,2.64
0.000 8-9
1783 1.31
1.09,1.60 0.005
9-10 1803
1.26 1.04,1.51
0.016 10-11ref.
1112 1.00
11-12 504
0.89 0.68,1.20
0.453 ≥ 12
234 1.14
0.79,1.63 0.487
Serum Calcium mmoll: 2.2
1683 1.04
0.88,1.24 0.636
2.2-2.6ref. 4423
1.00 ≥ 2.6
673 1.24
1.03,1.50 0.022
Calcium Phosphate product 3.5
2130 1.31
1.08,1.59 0.006
3.5-4.5ref. 2335
1.00 4.5-5.5
1460 0.84
0.67,1.05 0.128
≥ 5.5 813
0.96 0.64,1.43
0.824 Serum Phosphate mmoll
1.6 2645
1.01 0.82,1.25
0.923 1.6-2.0ref.
2218 1.00
2.0-2.2 788
1.17 0.91,1.50
0.213 2.2-2.4
577 1.07
0.77,1.49 0.670
2.4-2.6 329
1.71 1.11,2.61
0.014 ≥ 2.6
414 1.55
0.98,2.45 0.061
HbAsg: Negativeref
6943 1.00
Positive 467
1.11 0.87,1.40
0.407 Anti-HCV:
Negativeref 6276
1.00 Positive
1134 0.89
0.76,1.05 0.163
Cardiovascular disease CVD No CVDref
5938 1.00
CVD 1472
1.49 1.30,1.70
0.000
Figure 3.6a Adjusted hazard ratio for mortality of dialysis patients by diastolic blood pressure 1997-2002 cohort
1.23 1.06
1 2.2
1.31
0.5 1
1.5 2
2.5
70 70-79
80-89 90-99
100
Blood pressure mmHg Haza
rd r a
tio
Table 3.6 Adjusted hazard ratio for mortality of dialysis patients 1997-2002 cohort