Basic Science and Facts of Climate Change Past, Present and the Future
Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Basic Science and Facts of Climate Change
- – Past, Present and Future
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
”More and worse floods” ”Rains no longer normal – difficult to know when to plant”
”Our paddy fields get eaten
away by the sea” ”... so our children have to move away”Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
IPCC – the ‘key reference’ on climate change
Main findings
Climate change is already happening
It is mostly caused by man
It will continue
The rate of change is alarming
Extreme weather is getting more frequent
It is urgent to stop further warming
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2013
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
Three Questions (in slide master)
Training
SEA Climate
Presentation title First Question : Why is it getting warmer? at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
Answer: The rapid global warming of the past 100 years is caused mostly by human activity, mainly: Burning fossil fuels (e.g. coal, oil, natural gas) at unprecedented rates, sending “greenhouse gases” into the atmosphere
Widespread deforestation (trees contain a lot of carbon, and when burnt CO is released )
2 Changing agricultural and land-use practices (agriculture releases other GHGs, CH and NO )
4
2
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
First Question : Why is it getting warmer? (in slide master)
Training
Greenhouse gases are acting as a blanket around the earth
Today CO is higher than it’s been for
SEA Climate
Presentation title
2 at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
hundreds of thousands of years
http://400.350.org/Does anyone know how many ppm of CO we have
2 in the atmosphere today?
400 ppm That’s 120 ppm higher than the max for 800,000+ yrs … and the difference between an ice age and a warm period is just 100 ppm
Second Question : Along with the GHG the earth is
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
getting warmer – what does that mean? (in slide master)
Training
Rising temperatures, heat waves Sea level rise Scientists are very sure Melting ice Ocean acidification Changing rainfall patterns Less clear, and regional differences Changes in extreme events
SEA Climate
Presentation title Scientist warnings are clear: at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
We should avoid more than a 2°Celsius temperature rise in the coming century.
A 2012 World Bank report summarizes the potential effects of a 4°warmer world: it’s urgent to limit GHG emissions. The more we limit GHG emissions now, the less need for adaption to a future wilder weather.
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
SEA Climate
Presentation title Warming will continue, at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
but how much is our choice In the next few decades, temperatures will continue to rise, even if we almost completely stop emissions of GHGs today ( blue line ) This is because GHGs, especially CO
2 , stay in the atmosphere for a long time Therefore, we have further climate change “in the pipeline” because of the emissions already in the atmosphere
SEA Climate
Presentation title Warming will continue, at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
but how much is our choice But if, and only if, we cut the global amount of GHG emissions quickly, we may avoid escalating warming in the second half of this century (the red line ) If we act now to reduce global emissions, it is still possible to keep changes within a “manageable range” for our children
Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
When the ocean, land and air get warmer, things change in the climate system… … temperature is not all that’s changing…
SEA Climate
Presentation title
Climate varia bility and change
at-a-glance infoChange
(in slide master)
Training
Long term average New record highs
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
Shift in season and intensity (in slide master)
Training
Sumatra & Java - compared to 1961-90: Onset of the wet season is now 10 - 20 days later Onset of the dry season is now 10 - 60 days earlier
Based on Naylor et al. 2007
SEA Climate
Presentation title Huge annual variability is normal at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
SEA Climate Change Training
Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
Climate Change Projections
- Rough regional forecasts – will not be much better
- Act on that basis
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
Climate Change Projections : Asia (in slide master)
Training
Increased riverine, coastal and urban
- flooding leading to widespread damage to infrastructure, livelihoods and settlements (M) Increased risk of heat-related mortality (H)
- Increased risk of drought-related water and
- food shortage causing malnutrition (H)
7
00 , 2 C C P
I
e: rc
Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
… in addition to sea level rise – what more? Some things are certain:
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
One thing is for sure: (in slide master)
Training
The future will be different from the past Photo: NASA
More certainty about climate change
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
More uncertainty about its manifestations
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
Something’s changing – are you prepared?
Third Question : What does climate change
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
mean for the humanitarian sector?
Trends we have observed… Weather related disasters doubled over the past 2 decades
Increase in small- and medium-scale disasters
Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Weather related disasters doubled over the past 2 decades Increase small- and medium-scale disasters
More surprises/uncertainties Observed Changes in Disaster Patterns
Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Socioeconomic Pathways Socioeconomic Pathways
Adaptation and Mitigation Actions Adaptation and
Mitigation Actions Governance Governance
CLIMATE Natural Variability
Natural Variability Anthropogenic Climate Change
Anthropogenic Climate Change RISK
Hazards Exposure Vulnerability
IMPACTS
IMPACTS
EMISSIONS and Land-use ChangeSOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES
EMISSIONS and Land-use Change
Risks = Hazards x Vulnerability x
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
Exposure
The number of hazards is
increasing More people are exposed
to extreme events The vulnerability of people
and assets is increasing = Risks are increasing
SEA Climate
Change
Presentation title A range of effects at-a-glance info
(in slide master)
Training
Changes in frequency and/or intensity
of hazards Changes in geographical / seasonal
extent of hazards Climate trends (temperature, rainfall, IFRC
sea level rise) impacting livelihoods etc.
Trends becoming shocks – lack of
knowledge to cope
Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Special report on extreme events and disasters, a summary for policy makers
Key messages:
Disaster risk increases (regardless of climate change)
Extreme events are more frequent and more intense, due to climate change
Stronger emphasis on anticipation and risk reduction needed
Better information available
IPCC Summary for Policy makers, 2011
Potential impact: Floods
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
Difficult to measure the frequency and intensity
of floods, but generally there has been an increasing trend Changes in rainfall patterns and precipitation
intensity could put more people at risk from flooding Photo: IFRC, Pakistan floods 2010,
Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Potential impact: Coastal erosion, coastal flooding and salt water intrusion Photo: IFRC, Viet Nam coastal dike damages
Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Potential impact: Drought Photo: Jacob Dall
Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Possible Impact: Increasing Food Insecurity (Photo: Tamara Leigh/IFRC-Climate Centre)
SEA Climate
Presentation title Possible impact: Changing disease patterns at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
(Photo: Nancy Okwengu/IFRC-Climate Centre)
Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Potential Impact: Melting Ice Source: NASA – UNDP
2002 1978 Source: Barnett et al. (2005)
Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Potential Impacts: Oceanic Changes
Sea levels are rising – at a faster rate Sea level rise
NOW
SEA Climate
Presentation title Potential Impacts: Oceanic Changes at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
Large scale degradation and/or
... and fish stocks loss of coastal and marine decline, eroding ecosystems livelihoods for millions of people the oceans are becoming more acidic
sea surface temperatures are increasing
Ocean acidification damages coral reefs – reducing their coastal protection effects
Potential Impact: Tropical Cyclones Impacts
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
Possibly an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclone
activity (hurricanes/typhoons), coupled with higher storm surges due to sea level rise economic/human losses are expected to increase
IFRC Source: NOAA
SEA Climate
Presentation title Climate Change Fingerprint in at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
Complex Crises
- increased demand
- failed harvests
- less land for agriculture (a.o. urbanisation)
- biofuels
Climate change
- distorted markets (ban on exports)
related
- price speculations
SEA Climate
Presentation title Humanitarian Concern at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
Training
- Will vulnerable people worldwide have a voice
in geo-engineering decisions?
- Will there be extra funding for humanitarian
work in a geo-engineered future?
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
Key Messages (in slide master)
Training
Climate Change is already happening and will continue
to affect us especially the most vulnerable groups
Rate of change is alarming and mostly caused by men CC brings another layer of risk
R = Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure
We already see a lot of observed changes in disaster
patterns Urgent action is a must
We need to make choices under periods of uncertainty
Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
From IFRC President Konoe
issued at the release of the IPCC AR5 WGIIThis is the strong confirmation that risks have been rising in recent decades
The second message emerging from the report is more positive – Immense capacities exist to addressing risks – capacities that can be even more effective when applied with greater awareness and investment ahead of potential problems
The third message of the report is about our choices for the future – Past greenhouse gas emissions have already committed us to rising risks for several decades to come. This report shows that we can largely handle those now-inevitable changes. For the second half of the century, however, we face a bigger choice – one that needs to be made now.
Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Further information
ipcc.ch
climatecentre.org
ifrc.org Thank you!