Dinamika Persaingan Industri Telekomunikasi

  

Dinamika Persaingan Industri

Telekomunikasi Mas Wigrantoro Roes Setiyadi Ketua Masyarakat Telematika Indonesia (MASTEL) maswig@asia.net.id Jakarta, 31 Oktober 2007

  Profile MasWig

Pendidikan

  Sarjana Teknik Informatika, Univesitas Budi Luhur (d/h STMIK Budi Luhur), 1992 • Sarjana Ekonomi, Universitas Indonesia, 1996 •

• Master in Public Policy, National University of Singapore, 2000 Magister Sains Akuntansi, Universitas Indonesia, 2002 • Kandidat Doktor, Program Studi Ilmu Manajemen, PPS-FEUI •

Profesi / Jabatan

  Wakil Direktur Utama, PT Pratama Jaringan Nusantara • Direktur Institute for Technology and Economic Policy Studies <<INSTEPS>> • Ketua MASTEL •

• Dosen Pasca Sarjana:
• – Universitas Prof. Dr. Moestopo (Beragama): Perkembangan TI & Komunikasi Universitas Budi Luhur: Ethics & Cyberlaws; Strategi Sistem Informasi / TI –

Agenda

• • Scope of Telecommunication Discourse • Current business environment

• Industry Competitive Analysis • Competitive Dynamics • Strategy to Win Competition • Q & A

Lingkup Kajian Telekomunikasi Teknologi

  Hukum Kebijakan & Regulasi Implikasi Sosial Ekonomi

  Interkoneksi Standar

  Telekomunikasi

  Right Mobilitas

  VAS Landing

  Teledensitas Digital Divide Dll.

  Perilaku Manfaat

  USO Lisensi Internasional Dll.

  BHP Tarif

  UU Dll.

  Jaringan Media

  Nilai Ekonomi Layanan PP.

  Investasi Kinerja

  Conduct Struktur

  VoIP Interkoneksi

  Signaling Modulasi

  Receiver Protokol

  Transmisi Transmiter

  PerMen Perda. KepDirjen Dll.

The Operators business environment

• Threats and opportunities
• Shifts in consumers behavior

Confusion in both media and telecom markets Business dynamic that impact operators business strategy

  Changes in consumer behavior Always on • Call Forwarding -> Mobile -> Internet -> Mobile TV Presence based services •

• How to be reachable

  Mobility •

• Roaming, WiFi handover, Service Portability

  Service usage •

• - e/M-commerce, data, multimedia

  Payment models changing •

• Point Of Sales, Realtime Charging, Prepaid Combinations

The service ecosystems…

• Consumers … – Wants: simplicity, usability and access to the “Net” and cool things.
• – Consumption is rapid and instant
• – Access is just expected wherever I am
• Application (service) providers … – Communication network is simple the channel to reach customers.
• – Target to keep customers always on, regardless of network, location or terminal.
• – Advertising is a vital source of revenues.
• Operators … – Keep customer loyal and increase service usage, ARPU.
• – Consolidation of production environments to lower OPEX in an increasing competitive market.
• – The true challenge is to move towards a common strategy for service delivery towards; Broadband, Fixed and Mobile networks.

  

Convergence from a users perspective

Terminal: The terminal at hand present the service I want to access.

  Access: Best possible network resource is engaged to access the service.

  Service: Based on the service type, bandwith, method of presentation set the rules how to present the service Subscription, Authentication, Accounting… Technology shift and uncertainties

• Web 2.0
• – True personalization impacts the expectation of communication
• – RSS and bloggs are used over any media

• – Communities and IM replace traditional communications

• – New business models (mainly advertising driven)
• Telco
• – An all IP-based world will create new business models
• – New communication providers change the business models
• – The business model is threatening traditional telecoms
• – For many subscribers, price combined with presence is currently more important than quality.

  “Coverage is king” regardless of access technology

  Telco Business trends

Convergence aspects

• Terminal – Multi network access, multimedia
• Network – Converged network for any service
• Services – Mashups, service Portability • Access – Core network must support different access methods

Convergence is more than an aggregated bill

• Combination of services that adds value to the customer
• Operational synergies
• New market opportunities
• Play higher in the value chain

  Telco Business Challenge

• Captive Market • Relatively homogeneous portfolio
• Thick margin
• Sole player
• Supporting roles
• Passive business appr
• Competitive market
• Relatively heterogeneous product
• Thin margin
• Multi players
• Creative partnership
• Leading roles
• Proactive business developer

Short term issues and key business objectives

  Short term issues

• Core production systems reaches its “end of life”

• • Long process to introduce changes customizations in today’s

  production environment.
• Different service platforms for different networks, Fixed, Mobile and IP networks Key objective in business decisions
• Supports and enhance core business and then operators competitive edge.
• Supports migration towards NGN architecture

• • Allow for flexible and open service development environment

• Having the ability to introduce new service rapidly

Alternative revenue stream’s impact on my business

  Advertising and new business models will constantly impact operator’s traditional business model.

  

Example: Starbucks – iPhone – iTune concept will compete with traditional

download bus

  Structure - Conduct - Performance

• Industry Competitive Analysis

Industry Structure

• Number of competing firms

  S - C - P

• Homogeneity of product
• Cost of entry and exit

Firm Conduct

• Price taking
• Product differentiation
• Tacit Collusion • Exploiting market power

Performance

• Firm Level: normal, below normal, above normal preference
• Society, productive and allocative efficiency, level of employment, progress The Structure Conduct Performance Model (Barney, 2007)

Market Structure

  

The ways in which the structure of an industry

react to, and reflect, the underlying influences of

technology and preferences

Types Industry Structure, Firm Conduct Option, Firm Performance, and Social Welfare Implications (Barney,2007)

  Social Type of Firm Conduct Expected Firm Industry Attributes Example

  Welfare Industry Option Performance Implcation

  

Perfect Large number of Stock market Price Taking Normal Social

Competition computing firm Crude oil welfare Homogenous maximal products Low-cost entry and exit Monopolistic Large number of Tooth Paste Product Above Normal Less than

  

Competition computing firm Shampoo Differentiation perfect Homogenous Golf ball (see Chapter 8) competition products Automobiles Low-cost entry and exit Oligopoly Small number of U.S steel and Collution Above Normal Less than computing firm autos in the (see Chapter monopolistic Homogenous or 1950s 10) competition Heterogenous U.S breakfast products sereal Costly-entry and exit Monopoly One firm Tooth Paste Product Above Normal Less than Costly entry Shampoo Differentiation Oligopoly INDUSTRY SEGMENT LEGAL STATUS OPERATOR(S)

  Kompetisi Indosat, Telkom, Esia PUBLIC SWITCH Fix Wireline Duopoly Telkom, Batam-Bintan Telkom TELEPHONE NETWORK Fix Wireless Kompetisi Telkom, Indosat, Esia

  DOMESTIC CDMA-450 Regional License Sampoerna Telekomunikasi Mobile GSM Kompetisi Telkomsel, Satelindo, Excelcom, NTS, 3

  3G Kompetisi Telkomsel, Satelindo, Excelcom, NTS, 3 CDMA Kompetisi Mobile-8, Smart

  Long Distance Monopoly Telkom

  INFRASTRUCTURE TERRESTRIAL Kompetisi Semua Operator SATELLITE Kompetisi Satelindo, PSN, CSM, Telkom

  VALUE ADDED SERVICES Data Com, ISP, Payphone, etc. Competition Licensed operators (Network) SPECIAL NETWORK

  VSAT, Trunking Competetition Licensed operators PRIVATE NETWORK

  No Resale Any Private Companies Telephone Swicth Transmission

  MANUFACTURING Broadband Switch Competetition Any Companies CPE SERVICES

  INTERNATIONAL GATEWAY Indonesia Telco - Market Structure Penyelenggara Telekomunikasi

Pelanggan kartu pra bayar menurut Operator Telekomunikasi pada Tanggal 25 Juli 2007

  Sampoerna Natrindo; 9.590;

  Telekomunikasi Bakrie Telecom;

  0% Indonesia; 198.000;

  1.997.127; 2% Hutchinson;

  0% 1.057.338; 1%

  Mobile-8; 2.175.731; 2%

  Telkom; 13.301.000; 15%

  XL; 9.743.245; 11%

  Telkomsel; Indosat;

  41.001.000; 47% 19.636.990; 22%

  Sumber: Dirjen Postel

Competitive Dynamics

  Actions - Reactions • Strategic Moves • Make profit > Competitors • Sustainable Competitive • Advantage Telco Business Character

  Adopted from: Rudiantara, 2003 Network Externalities

• the value of a unit of the good increases with the number of units sold
• the value of a unit of the good increases with the

  expected number of units to be sold

• • externalities arise in the act of exchanging assets or

  goods.
• externalities may arise in the array of vertically related services that compose a financial transaction.

The Five Force Model of Environmental

  Threat of Entry Threat of rivalry

Threat of Level of threat Threat of

  Supplier in an industry Buyer

Threat of

Substitutes

  What do we want to be? Not , What do we want to do?

  Competitive Profits above average regional countries. Adopted from Coff (1999) & Powell (2001). Advantage Products and services better than country- Distinctive competitors do competence Adopted from Ansoff (1965), Andrew (1971). Core Resources create variety of products, gain competence higher revenue. Adopted from Prahalad & Hamel (1990).

  Strategic decisions Strategic decisions

  Dynamics of Competition (1)

• Process of competition over time
• Erosion of competitive advantage
• – Changes in five forces
• – Competitors overcoming adverse forces
• Cycles of competitive response
• – Slow : long periods of established pattern of

  competition

• – Fast : hyper competition, constant disequilibrium

  and change Dynamics of Competition (2)

• Implications of speed of competitive cycle:

• – Slow-moving - build and sustain competitive

  advantages which are difficult to imitate
• – Fast-moving - advantage is temporary, disrupt

  status quo, sequence of short-lived moves

  Cycles of Competition

Source: Adapted with the permission of the Free Press, a Division of Simon & Schuster, from R.A. D’Aveni with Robert Gunther, Hyper –

Competitive Rivalries: Competing in a Highly Dynamic Environment © 1994, 1995 by Richard A.D’Aveni, All rights resvered.

Competitive Strategy

  Industrial Organization • (Outside In) Resource-based Theory • (Inside Out) Austrian School • (Hypercompetition)

  The business idea Layers of the business environment

Defining the strategy

• Who is my prime customer target?
• – Business, Residential, Age group, ethnic groups…

• • What network resources do I have that bring me competitive edge?

• – Single network operator or
• – Multiple network operator
• Prime services that must be protected?
• – Services with limited competition
• – Service that generate significant revenue
• – Service that prevent churn

  Menanggapi perubahan lingkungan politik, ekonomi dan industri Menjangkau ekspansi Geografis Kolaborasi, kemitraan, aliansi strategik Strategi Keuangan Strategi Fungsional Strategi R&D Strategi service/ Manufacturing Strategi Pemasaran Strategi SDM Menciptakan Nilai Bagi Konsumen Membangun Strategi Bisnis

Strategi Bisnis Moves proaktif ungguli pesaing Usaha bangun keunggulan daya saing Strategi supply chain management

  Telecommunication Value Chain

Equipment Supply Telecomm Infrastructure Service Development

  Consumer Electronic Databases

  Network Management

  VAS

  Telecom Equipment Software

  Computer H/W Internet

  Competitive Market

Monopoly / Duopoly / Oligopoly

Competitive Market

PTOs

  

regulators will need to monitor the extent and significance of

competition in telecom markets, and take positive steps to reduce barriers to entry

wherever possible

Strategic Groups

  Strategic groups are organisations within an industry with similar strategic

characteristics, following similar strategies

or competing on similar bases

  Some characteristics for identifying strategic groups Sources: Based on M.E. Porter, Competitive Strategy, Free Press, 1980; and J. McGee and H. Thomas, ‘Strategic groups: theory, research and taxonomy’, Strategic Management Journal, vol. 7, no. 2 (1986), pp. 141–160.

  

Identification of Strategic Groups (1)

• Scope of activities
• – Product/service diversity
• – Geographical coverage
• – Number of market segments served
• – Distribution channels

  

Sources: Based on M.E. Porter, Competitive Strategy, Free Press, 1980; and J. McGee and H. Thomas, ‘Strategic

groups: theory, research and taxonomy’, Strategic Management Journal, vol. 7, no. 2 (1986), pp. 141–160.

  

Identification of Strategic Groups (2)

• Resource commitment
• – Extent of branding
• – Marketing effort
• – Extent of vertical integration
• – Product/service quality
• – Technological position (leader, follower)
• – Size of organisation

  Sources: Based on M.E. Porter, Competitive Strategy, Free Press, 1980; and J. McGee and H. Thomas, ‘Strategic groups: theory, research and taxonomy’, Strategic Management Journal, vol. 7, no. 2 (1986), pp. 141–160.

  Uses of Strategic Group Analysis

• To understand who are the most direct competitors of an organisation
• To establish the different bases of competitive rivalry within and between the strategic groups
• To assess if an organisation could move from one group to another
• – Depends on barriers to entry
• To identify opportunities and threats
• – Changes in the macro-environment may create strategic space

  Mo b ile Net w o rk Op erat o rs

  Dealers Co nt ract

  Manufact urers Co m p o nent

  A nd Eq uip m ent Sup p liers

  Mo b ile Hand set Manufact ures

  Mo b ile Infrast ruct ure

  Manufact urers Co nt ent Pro vid ers

  Mo b ile A p p licat io n Pro vid ers

  Sp ecializ ed Services Banking , A cco unt ing ,

  Leg al Sp ecializ ed Risk Cap it al

  Cellular Industry Cluster

Users

  ? Q&A

Contact:

  Mas Wigrantoro Roes Setiyadi Email: maswig@asia.net.id Mobile: +6281876006 URL: http://maswig.blogspot,com & http://maswigrs.wordpress.com