Strategy 2020 voices the collective determination of the

  

Contingency

planning guide

  © International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva, 2012 Copies of all or part of this guide may be made for noncommercial use, providing the source is acknowledged. The IFRC would appreciate re- ceiving details of its use. Requests for commercial reproduction should P.O. Box 372 be dir CH-1211 Geneva 19

  Switzerland The opinions and recommendations expressed in this study do not nec- Telephone: +41 22 730 4222 essarily represent the official policy of the IFRC or of individual National Telefax: +41 22 733 0395 Red Cross or Red Crescent Societies. The designations and maps used do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the Internation- W al Federation or National Societies concerning the legal status of a terri-

tory or of its authorities. All photos used in this study are copyright of the Contingency Planning Guide 2012

  IFRC unless otherwise indicated. Cover photo: IFRC / Olivier Matthys 1220900 06/2012 E 1,000 International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Contingency planning guide

  Contingency planning guide

Strategy 2020 voices the collective determination of the Over the next ten years, the collective focus of the IFRC

will be on achieving the following strategic aims:

  IFRC to move forward in tackling the major challenges that confront humanity in the next decade. Informed by the

  1. Save lives, protect livelihoods and strengthen needs and vulnerabilities of the diverse communities with recovery from disasters and crises whom we work, as well as the basic rights and freedoms

  2. Enable healthy and safe living to which all are entitled, this strategy seeks to benefit all who look to Red Cross Red Crescent to help to build a

  3. Promote social inclusion and a culture more humane, dignified and peaceful world. of non-violence and peace International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Contingency planning guide

  Table of contents

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  5 International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Contingency planning guide

Chapter 4. Implement

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  43 Chapter 5

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  46 Annex 1

  49 Annex 2

  

  60 Annex 4

  62 International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Contingency planning guide

  Foreword

  Natural disasters affect millions of people every year, and National Societies of the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement are at the forefront of the response to these. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) is a world leader in disaster management with a global disaster management system focused on effective preparedness for, and response to, disasters and crises of all magnitudes. Strengthening disaster preparedness at global, regional and national levels is thus critical to save lives, protect livelihoods and strengthen recovery from disasters and crises. However, significant gaps exist in the IFRC’s systems for the coordination of its National Societies’ preparedness efforts. These can be addressed by better integrating the current diverse practices of contingency planning and business continuity planning through establishing agreed standards and tools for multi-hazard emergency preparedness. Contingency planning ensures that we know what to do when disaster strikes, and have the systems and tools to respond fast. It means anticipating the types of disasters we might face and knowing practically how to manage disasters when they do strike. It also means rehearsing our procedures and working out where the gaps are, so that we can be ready when we are needed most. Plans need to be regularly updated and tested through simulations.

  This contingency planning guide is the second version produced by the IFRC, and builds on our experience around the world. The simple steps outlined here are the distillation of years of good practice. Most important of all, this is a guide for practitioners, volunteers and staff working with National Societies around the world, who wish to benefit from the collective experience of their colleagues.

  Contingency planning and preparedness should be considered a core organizational activity for every National Society. The revised guide will support disaster management practitioners in developing contingency plans which are simple, participatory, realistic and supported by preparedness actions that are identified as a result of the contingency planning.

  Bekele Geleta

  Secretary General International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Introduction

  Introduction

  The International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement (the Movement) is a world leader in disaster management. Effective preparedness for and response to emergency situations are fundamental elements of its mandate. The Movement’s comparative advantages are its large number of paid and volunteer staff throughout the world, who are able to respond immediately at a local level, and the significant resources of the 186 National Societies and the secretariat of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). Each member bases its actions on the Movement’s seven fundamental prin- ciples of humanity, impartiality, neutrality, independence, voluntary service, unity and universality. Most National Societies are recognized by their governments as “auxiliary to ₁ the public authorities in the humanitarian field”. National Societies and the

  IFRC are uniquely placed to work with government authorities and response agencies. They have community-based outreach networks to identify people most at risk and vulnerable to disasters. Most countries periodically face emergencies so severe that international Red Cross Red Crescent humanitarian assistance is required. These disasters may arise from natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, droughts and cyclones or from any number of risks, such as food or water shortages, epidemics, envi- ronmental or technological disasters, acute economic distress, civil unrest or armed conflict. Refugee outflows and internal displacements are consequences of humanitarian emergencies and are also emergencies in their own right.

  Using the guidelines

  These guidelines aim to ensure that Red Cross Red Crescent disaster response is consistent and of a high quality. This document provides an overview of the key elements of contingency planning. This guide is aimed at assisting National Society and IFRC staff responsible for developing contingency plans at the local, national, regional or global levels. It is essential to develop contingency plans in consultation and cooperation with those who will have to implement or approve them. This document provides guidelines, not strict rules; planning priorities will differ according to the context and scope of any given situation.

1 Statutes of the International

  Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement adopted by the 25th International Conference of the Red Cross at Geneva in October 1986 and amended by the 26th International Conference of the Red Cross at Geneva in December 1995. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Contingency planning guide This guide breaks contingency planning down into five main steps, shown in the diagram below. Each step is covered by a separate chapter in this document.

  PREPARE ANALYSE DEVELOP

  IMPLEMENT REVIEW Whilst it is hoped most practitioners will find this an easy-to-use format, this is not the only way to go about contingency planning. The essential elements of the process can be organized in a number of ways and there are several excel- ₂ lent reference works that provide more detail. In order to be relevant and useful, contingency plans must be a collaborative effort. They must also be linked to the plans, systems or processes of other government, partner or Movement bodies at all levels – national, regional and global. There is a suggested format for contingency plans annexed to this guide and there is a set of training modules, also available from the IFRC.

  2 Chief amongst these is the Humanitarian Practice Network Paper “Contingency planning and humanitarian action: a review of practice” by Richard Choularton. This can be found at International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

Chapter 1 Prepare 1. Prepare This section sets out some of the definitions, key considerations and princi- ples that must be taken into account when preparing a contingency plan. Subsections are: What is contingency planning? • When and how to plan • National Society mandate and contingency planning • Humanitarian reform and the cluster system •

• Principles, quality and accountability

  Data collection and practical steps to prepare for planning •

1. What is contingency planning?

  Contingency planning aims to prepare an organization to respond well to an emergency and its potential humanitarian impact. Developing a contingency plan involves making decisions in advance about the management of human and financial resources, coordination and communications procedures, and being aware of a range of technical and logistical responses. Such planning is a management tool, involving all sectors, which can help ensure timely and effective provision of humanitarian aid to those most in need when a disaster occurs. Time spent in contingency planning equals time saved when a disaster occurs. Effective contingency planning should lead to timely and effective disaster-relief operations.

  The contingency planning process can basically be broken down into three simple questions:

• What is going to happen?
• What are we going to do about it?
• What can we do ahead of time to get prepared? This guide helps planners think through these questions in a systematic way. Contingency planning is most often undertaken when there is a specific threat or hazard; exactly how that threat will actually impact is unknown. Developing scenarios is a good way of thinking through the possible impacts. On the basis of sensible scenarios it is possible to develop a plan that sets out the scale of the response, the resources needed and the practical management tasks that will be needed. See Annex 1 for a suggested contingency plan format.

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Contingency planning guide

  

Disaster response or contingency planning?

The definitions below set out the theoretical distinctions between disaster-

response and contingency planning. In reality, National Societies have limited

resources and may end up doing ‘a bit of both’. This guide aims to develop a

set of simple, practical tools that can help with either, whilst retaining a main

focus on contingency planning:

Disaster-response plan – Disaster-response planning involves identifying,

strengthening and organizing resources and capacities so as to reach a level

of preparedness for timely and effective response to a potential disaster. Disaster-response planning is preliminary in nature, based on educated assumptions of risks and hazards, and does not address specific disaster scenarios.

  Contingency plan – Contingency planning involves anticipating a specific hazard based on specific events or known risks at local, national, regional or even global levels (e.g., earthquakes, floods or disease outbreaks), and establishing operational procedures for response, based on expected resource requirements and capacity.

2. When and how to plan

  Contingency planning is the responsibility of all levels of the organization. The

  IFRC recommends that National Societies and IFRC offices develop either a multi-hazard disaster-response plan with hazard-specific annexes, or several hazard-specific contingency plans to cover high-risk disaster events. However, many emergency management procedures are common to all disasters, regard- less of the hazards involved, and as mentioned above, the important thing is to plan ahead.

  Contingency planning is an ongoing process and the planning process is often as important as the plan itself. Red Cross Red Crescent leadership should include it in its annual planning process, and as part of strategy development and staff accountability measurements. Plans must be tested and updated regularly to check their relevance. During rapidly changing situations, plans will need to be updated more frequently.

  Contingency planning should always be undertaken when there is a high risk or probability that a disaster or emergency situation may occur. National Societies and IFRC delegations should also plan when there is evidence of recurring natural disasters (e.g., seasonal events such as floods, hurricanes or cyclones, and droughts).

  What do you need to plan for?

  These guidelines are designed to assist in the preparation of contingency plans for all types of humanitarian emergencies, including: complex emergencies, conflicts, natural disasters and technological disasters. Planning should be spe- cific to each context and take into consideration a number of factors including: the government’s disaster-response plans and capacity; reception and coordina- tion of national, regional or global inputs; potential sources of donor support; the likelihood of disaster occurrence; and the vulnerability of the population. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Chapter 1 Prepare Who should plan? A good plan will need the support of many parts of the organization, including the senior leadership. It should be led ideally by a focal person from the Disaster Management Team (DMT), who is familiar with disaster-response and contin- gency planning. Alternatively a task force, committee or working group com- prised of DMT members and members from other sectors can be formed. Developing a plan requires teamwork. The greater the input, the better the product, although there will always be a trade-off in terms of time and com- plexity. Also, National Societies may benefit from developing internal plans before engaging in external planning. Groups to consider involving are:

• – administrative staff and logisticians.

  governance, senior managers, sector technicians, volunteers, Internally •

• national, regional and global IFRC, Participating National Society Movement – and ICRC.
• – mental organizations (NGOs).

  government, United Nations (UN) partners, non-govern- External partners •

  Planning is most effective when it is a participatory process involving all the actors who will be required to work together in the event of an emergency. A contingency plan should ideally be a dynamic document, i.e., continually updated. Planners should encourage screening, analysis and discussion from those who must approve and/or implement its components. This means the plan should be widely distributed and communicated to National Society board members, headquarters’ offices and departments, branches, volunteers and to relevant external agencies.

  Inter-agency contingency planning

  There has been a strong move in recent years toward inter-agency contingency planning and it is important that Red Cross and Red Crescent National Societies ₃ participate in such processes. National Societies might be requested to lead the shelter component of inter-agency contingency planning exercises on behalf of ₄ the IFRC. Having internal plans in place will help National Societies to be clear about what they can offer. They should also be prepared to revise internal plans as a consequence of inter-agency planning.

  Where to plan Contingency plans are necessary at national and regional levels (and sometimes at a global level), to ensure effective coordination and response to large-scale disasters. Plans should be established by all National Societies and Federation delegations.

  3 The Inter-Agency Standing

  Most plans are prepared for individual countries; however, plans can also be

  Committee's (IASC)

  made jointly for a number of countries or for regions where there are cross-

  contingency planning guide can be found at:

  border issues to consider. This is often the case with large-scale natural haz- ards, such as hurricanes or cyclones. In such instances, consultation between

  

  disaster-response planners from all affected countries is critical when devel-

  

  oping regional scenarios, which will then inform and shape country-based

   contingency planning. The IFRC’s regional delegations have made a commit-

  ment to support and lead this regional disaster-response and contingency

  4 Please refer to the Shelter

  planning process. The graphic below sets out the different levels of contingency

  Cluster contingency planning planning. checklist at International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Contingency planning guide

  Figure 1: The different levels at which contingency planning can take place

  3. National Society mandate and contingency planning

  National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies carry out their humanitarian activities in line with the fundamental principles and statutes of the Movement, the constitution of the IFRC, as well as with their own statutes and national legislation. As auxiliaries to their governments in humanitarian service, National Societies support their respective country’s public authorities according to the needs of the population. However, this auxiliary role does not limit the initiative of National Societies to undertake other humanitarian activity within their countries. They are independent national organizations, supporting the public authorities with their own programmes. National Societies are required to work closely with their governments to ensure respect for International Humanitarian Law, guard the integrity of the Red Cross Red Crescent Emblem and to uphold the fundamental principles.

  

The leadership/management of the Red Cross Red Crescent is

responsible for ensuring the production, implementation and

monitoring of disaster-response and contingency plans

  1. Local or community level

  

2. National level

  3. Regional and global level At branch and community levels, National Red Cross or Red Crescent Societies can play a useful role in supporting the organization of disaster planning committees responsible for developing community-based disaster-response plans. Use of the IFRC's vulnerability and capacity assessment (VCA) tool and its ‘Preparedness Planning Training Module’ is encouraged. First-aid training is another example of Red Cross Red Crescent contribution to a community's level of preparedness. In addition, local communities can provide a great deal of information regarding their own risks and capacities.

  A national disaster

response plan addresses

and assesses all potential

hazards, evaluates the National Society's

capacity for response and

describes the approach to

be taken in emergencies.

A well-prepared National

Society’ (WPNS) should follow the planning process described in this document. National Societies should each have a national disaster response plan. Their institutional role and

planned response in times

of disaster should also be recognized by their

respective governments.

This was agreed to as part

of the 2004 International

Conference’s Agenda for

Humanitarian Action.

  As a function of the IFRC's coordination support role to National Societies, regional delegations and pan-regional disaster response/management units (DMU) must develop risk-area contingency plans. Risk-area contingency plans cover a specific hazard with the potential to cause destruction on a scale requiring extensive international humanitarian assistance. National Societies and the IFRC should plan for these events, setting out the necessary requirements, working relationships, and roles and procedures, as well as identifying event triggers. Those concerned should follow the planning process described in this document. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Chapter 1 Prepare A National Society’s precise role in times of disaster should be negotiated and defined with its government. Policy should then be developed accordingly, and the society’s role incorporated into the government’s national disaster plan. It is the duty of National Societies to prepare themselves to provide and receive assistance in the event of a disaster. This will include, for instance, negotiating with their governments for exemption from taxes and customs duties on items intended for disaster victims, and agreeing on procedures for the rapid issuance of visas for Red Cross Red Crescent staff taking part in relief operations if Movement-wide assistance is required. Contingency plans will be rooted in the institutional mandate, policies, strate- gies, standards and norms, and legal framework of the organization.

  4. Humanitarian reform and the cluster system

  Since 2005 there have been significant changes to the way the international humanitarian system of response has been organized. Of most relevance to the IFRC and Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies is the ‘cluster’ system. This assigns coordination and leadership responsibilities to a number of operational humanitarian agencies globally for key sectors such as food (World Food Programme), water and sanitation (UNICEF), health (WHO) and agriculture (FAO). There are currently 11 clusters, details of which can be found at the web- site

  The IFRC is the convener of the Global Shelter Cluster for natural disasters. This has implications for all National Societies, especially when an emergency response is of an international scale. Contingency plans should routinely take account of this global obligation and make specific preparations for it.

  When a disaster happens and there is a need for additional international coor- dination, the Humanitarian Country Team will decide this. The IFRC should be represented at that meeting. If additional support to the existing coordinating structures is needed, the IFRC can provide a Shelter Coordination Team (SCT) to support the government in the coordination of shelter activities during the emergency phase.

  In preparation for disasters, National Societies might be requested by the Humanitarian Country Team or the Resident Coordinator to lead the shelter component of inter-agency contingency planning exercises on behalf of the

  IFRC. This exercise is very similar to the one being described in this guide but it includes all the shelter actors across the country concerned. The National Society can ask the IFRC for support in this role and can use the Inter-Agency Contingency Planning Guidelines and the Shelter Cluster Contingency Planning Checklist. These resources and more about the IFRC and the Shelter Cluster can be found a International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Contingency planning guide

  5. Principles, quality and accountability

  Any contingency plan must be mindful not only of the National Society’s man- date and the international response system, but also of principles, standards and norms that the Movement has adopted. Chief amongst these, as has already been mentioned, are the fundamental principles and statutes of the Movement, the constitution of the IFRC, national legislation and the statutes of the National Society. In addition, however, there is the Code of Conduct for the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement and NGOs in Disaster Relief, as well as standards such as those developed by the Sphere project. There is also an increasing body of work on beneficiary accountability. This is developed in more detail in section 5 in Chapter 3: Develop.

  6. Data collection and practical steps to prepare for planning

  Contingency planning is often best carried out in a workshop environment. A useful resource for this approach is the IFRC Contingency Planning Workshop ₅ Package. The main benefit of this approach is that stakeholders can be brought together so assumptions and commitments are made jointly.

  To make the most of a contingency planning workshop it is necessary to do some data collection in advance. Having enough time, space and material is essential. Using an external facilitator is often useful and it is important to ensure the right participants attend (e.g., internal and external experts and decision-makers). The following chapter (‘Analyse’) develops some of the key concepts on which contingency planning should be focused. Most of this ‘data’ will need to be gathered in advance of a workshop so that participants have the right informa- tion from which to develop different scenarios.

  Recommended reference documents

• ฀ ฀Fundamental฀Principles฀of฀the฀International฀Red฀Cross฀and฀Red฀Crescent฀ Movement •฀ ฀The฀Principles฀and฀Rules฀for฀Red฀Cross฀and฀Red฀Crescent฀Disaster฀Relief฀
• ฀ ฀Seville฀Agreement฀and฀Supplementary฀Measures฀
• ฀ ฀Sphere฀Humanitarian฀Charter฀and฀Minimum฀Standards฀in฀Disaster฀ Response฀
• ฀ ฀Code฀of฀Conduct฀for฀the฀International฀Red฀Cross฀and฀Red฀Crescent฀ Movement฀and฀Non-Governmental฀Organizations฀(NGOs)฀in฀Disaster฀Relief฀

  5

• ฀ ฀Guidelines฀for฀Well-prepared฀National฀Societies฀(WPNS)฀

  

• ฀ ฀Better฀Programming฀Initiative฀(BPI)

   International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Chapter 2 Analyse 2. Analyse This section helps planners to create realistic scenarios on which the contin- gency plan will be based, including what the likely priority humanitarian needs will be and the Red Cross Red Crescent role in addressing these.

  Introduction • Hazards • Vulnerability and capacity assessment (VCA) •

• Risk analysis

  Disaster impacts • Role, mandate and capacity of the National Society • Developing scenarios •

1. Introduction

  Contingency planning has three components: an estimate of what is going to happen, a plan based on this estimate of what the response should be; and some actions identified to be best prepared. This chapter helps planners think through what is going to happen, and the likely impact on people’s lives and livelihoods.

  In the absence of an actual disaster, contingency plans are based on scenarios. These are focused on analysing the risks to the population and likely impacts of potential disasters. Producing realistic scenarios is important for effective contingency planning.

  Determining the risk of disaster to a population and its potential impact starts with an analysis of the likely hazards faced by a country or region. Once this has been done an assessment of vulnerabilities and capacities at local, national or regional levels can be undertaken. Based on the analysis of hazards and the vulnerability and capacities of the population, disaster-response planners can determine risk and a list of likely needs. Realistic scenarios can then be developed for planning purposes. The diagram below illustrates how the combination of hazards and vulnerabili- ties combine to produce disasters. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Contingency planning guide

  Figure 2: How hazards and vulnerabilities combine to create disasters

  D Vulnerability Hazard

  I component

  Flood Livehood S

  Cyclone and its A

  Earthquake resilience S Tsunami

  Base-line status well-being Volcanic eruption

  T Self-protection Drought

  E Social protection Landslide

  R Governance Biological

  S Source: Ben Wisner, Piers Blaikie, Terry Cannon and Ian Davis. (2006)

2. Hazards

  Most National Societies will be aware of the principal hazards that need to be planned for, as will most at-risk communities. Contingency planning is likely to have been triggered by the probable threat of a particular hazard. Hazard data is largely scientific: quantitative or spatial. It can take many forms; ₆ e.g. :

• geological hazard maps showing fault lines or unstable slopes likely to cause landslides
• hydrological maps of flood-prone areas
• wind, rainfall and sea-surface temperature data
• recordings of seismic activity from monitoring stations • local rainfall and flood-level records. Whilst such data is useful for informing detailed planning, it may need inter- pretation. When developing multi-hazard disaster-response plans it is helpful to also consider new hazards such as the possibility of extreme weather linked to climate change, major shifts in risk due to deforestation and unplanned urbani- zation that may have dramatically greater impact.

6 Twigg, J (2004). Disaster

  risk reduction: Mitigation and preparedness in development and emergency planning. Overseas Development Institute (ODI), London, UK. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Chapter 2 Analyse

  3. Vulnerability and capacity assessment (VCA)

  The risk of disaster is linked to a population’s vulnerability to particular threats; varying conditions can affect vulnerability levels. Good planning must also assess capacities within the communities at risk, and identify opportunities and methods for strengthening and drawing on these capacities – in both planning and disaster response activities.

  The IFRC has been using VCA for a number of years and has an extensive set of resources for undertaking such an exercise. Many National Societies have carried out VCA and so have good data sets, which can be drawn on for contingency planning. Analysis of vulnerability data from reliable secondary data sources (academic, governmental, scientific, etc.) can also be used.

  VCA is primarily a tool to help communities engage in disaster mitigation and preparedness. It draws on community development methodologies such as participatory rural appraisal. VCA can also be a good source of data to identify which communities and groups are most vulnerable to disaster, and the types of capacities they might draw on in responding. See the table below as an example, reproduced from the IFRC’s VCA guidelines.

  Figure 3: Mapping vulnerabilities and capacities (taken from the IFRC's VCA guidelines)

  Problem/ Potential risk Vulnerabilities Capacities issue/hazard Flood •฀฀The฀river฀floods฀over฀ •฀฀Poor฀infrastructure •฀฀Training

• ฀฀Poor฀agricultural฀ •฀฀Skilled฀personnel the banks affecting homes in the vicinity practices •฀฀Storage฀facilities
• ฀฀Homes฀become฀ •฀฀Poor฀drainage •฀฀Evacuation฀plan water-logged at •฀฀Poor฀sanitation ground level •฀฀Lack฀of฀agricultural฀
• ฀฀Household฀ supplies equipment is damaged
• ฀฀Most฀vulnerable฀ people (elderly and very young) lost their lives

  VCA is essentially a social science tool, which primarily considers the social aspects of vulnerability and capacity such as marginalization and social capital. Other aspects are physical and institutional. The table below illustrates some examples of these.

  International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Contingency planning guide

  Figure 4: Physical and institutional vulnerabilities

• ฀฀Presence฀and฀quality฀of฀public฀infrastructure฀and฀shelters
• ฀฀Presence฀and฀accessibility฀to฀evacuation฀routes฀in฀the฀event฀of฀a฀ disaster
• ฀฀Quality฀of฀dwelling฀construction
• ฀฀Proximity฀of฀homes฀or฀population฀centres฀to฀identified฀hazards/threats
• ฀Existence,฀effectiveness฀and฀awareness฀of:
• – early-warning systems
• – disaster-response plans and systems
• ฀฀Existence฀of฀skilled฀response฀teams
• ฀฀Presence฀of฀development฀projects฀or฀NGOs฀(local฀and฀international) •฀฀Existence฀of฀community-based฀organizations,฀social฀groups,฀etc.
• ฀฀Ways฀of฀delivering฀basic฀services฀to฀the฀population
• ฀฀Centralized/decentralized฀decision-making฀in฀disaster฀management
>฀Human฀resources฀dedicated฀to฀disaster฀response
• ฀฀Financial฀resources฀dedicated฀to฀preparedness฀and฀disaster฀response
• ฀฀Awareness฀and฀commitment฀of฀local฀authorities฀to฀disaster฀reduction
• ฀฀Legislation,฀plans฀and฀instructions฀for฀local฀and฀national฀disaster฀ management
• ฀฀Access฀to฀vulnerable฀population฀in฀disaster฀situations
• ฀฀Readiness฀and฀quality฀of฀mechanisms฀for฀receiving฀external฀and฀ international assistance

  Vulnerability analysis can be as detailed and as comprehensive as required. It is important the information is regularly updated and of good quality. The amount of detail in the analysis will depend on the time and resources available. To provide a National Society and other Movement partners with an overall picture of the situation, a broad macro-analysis or profiling exercise of all haz- ards faced by the country and/or region is recommended as a first step. This will assist in prioritizing high-risk areas during the planning process. In cases where a potential hazard or threat prompts the contingency planning pro- cess (e.g., a sharp deterioration in the stability of a country), the analysis (and the contingency planning process) should focus on that particular hazard or threat.

  Whilst the majority of contingency planning will be to focus on a specific threat, it may be the case that a National Society is faced with multiple hazards. As part of the analysis of ‘what is going to happen?’, it may also be worth consid- ering more extreme variations of the expected disaster.

  Area of analysis (country or regional level)

  

Examples of indicators

Physical vulnerability •฀Quality฀of฀means฀of฀communication

  Organizational vulnerability

  

Institutional vulnerability •฀฀Presence฀of฀assistance/relief฀entities฀such฀as฀Red฀Cross฀Red฀Crescent,฀

fire department, police, civil defence, etc.

4. Risk analysis

  International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Chapter 2 Analyse For both of these situations, the concept of ‘risk analysis’ can be useful. The literature on this is extensive and is the main focus in much of the academic material about disaster management. At its simplest, the equation risk = hazard x vulnerability expresses the concept that the impact of the disaster depends on both the type of hazard and the level of vulnerability. The diagram below introduces the concept of probability into the risk equation. This is especially useful when deciding which hazards are worth planning for. A tsunami may be a once-in-a-200-year event, but its impact can be catastrophic as seen in 2004 in the Indian Ocean. An earthquake may be a low probability, but its impact very high. In such scenarios it is worth planning for, as the time invested is small compared to the benefits of knowing what to do if it actually occurs.

  Figure 5: The concept of risk can help to work out which hazards to plan for

  Impact

  Catastrophic Major

  Medium

  Likelihood

  Moderate Likely Almost certain

  Source: IASC

  A good example of this might be whether to plan for floods, cyclones or earth- quakes in Bangladesh. Flooding is a high-risk hazard there, as it is almost certain that every few years major flooding will occur. On this basis it is abso- lutely necessary to have contingency plans in place for flooding in Bangladesh.

  The same is true for cyclones in Bangladesh. The frequency of very dangerous cyclones is less than flooding, but the impact is higher in terms of potential loss of life and damage to property. The value of contingency planning for cyclones in Bangladesh – together with rapid mobilization systems and shelters – is well documented. The probability of an earthquake in Dhaka is much lower than either floods or cyclones. However, if a shallow, high-magnitude earthquake hit Dhaka, the consequences would be devastating, potentially killing and injuring millions of people. The risk of an earthquake happening is very low, but the impact very high, so this should be planned for too.

  International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Contingency planning guide

  Figure 6: A risk register can help you think about risk in a practical way

• ฀Country/region
• ฀฀Province/area/city
• ฀฀District฀or฀municipality
• ฀฀Specific฀locality฀or฀neighbour
• ฀Population
• ฀฀Community
• ฀฀Family
• ฀฀Individual
• ฀฀Period฀of฀recurrence฀(time฀frame)฀and฀ incidence; e.g., months, years, every five years, decade(s), etc.
• ฀฀Period฀during฀which฀specific฀ vulnerabilities apply to a defined group
• ฀฀Dates฀of฀the฀information฀used฀and฀ analysed
>฀฀Most฀important฀hazards/threats฀ in the geographic zones analysed (e.g., earthquakes, flooding, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, droughts, epidemics, landslides, etc.)
• ฀฀Variations฀in฀the฀period฀of฀recurrence฀ as a result of environmental or climate ch
• ฀฀Specific฀conditions฀of฀exposure฀and฀ vulnerability (e.g., physical, economic, social, organizational, institutional, educational, cultural, etc.)
• ฀Probability฀of฀occurrence
• ฀฀Potential฀area฀affected฀and฀territorial฀ coverage
• ฀฀Magnitude฀of฀damage฀and฀losses
• ฀฀Percentage฀of฀population฀affected
• ฀฀Other
• ฀฀Economic฀vulnerability:฀family฀earnings,฀ unemployment rate, etc.
• ฀฀Social฀vulnerability:฀life฀expectancy,฀ access to health services, education, infrastructure, sanitation, etc.
• ฀฀Organizational฀vulnerability:฀existence฀ of committees and disaster-response plans, early warning systems, etc.
• ฀฀Physical฀vulnerability:฀shelters,฀location฀ and quality of structures and dwellings, etc.

  Contingency plans are basically used to estimate the impact of a disaster on the population. For example, how many people are affected, what the greatest needs might be, what the logistical constraints might be and what the capability of first-phase disaster-response agencies will be. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  From an analysis of the hazards, likely social and physical vulnerabilities and the capacity of communities, it is possible to estimate the impact of a disaster. The more detailed the hazards and vulnerability data is, the more accurate the impacts estimate is likely to be, but there is one very important rule to remember when undertaking this analysis:

  Prediction is very difficult, especially of the future. (Niels Bohr) Field Analysis of hazards/ threats

  Analysis of vulnerability Geographical unit of analysis

  Temporal framework

  Events/areas of analysis

  Indicators of measurement

  Indicators฀for฀each฀area:

  Sources of information

  Provide specific references for sources of information as a means of verification.

5. Disaster impacts

  Chapter 2 Analyse With that motto in mind, there are several obvious disaster impacts that will shape a potential response:

• the number of people killed
• the number of people affected
• morbidity data
• priority humanitarian needs
• logistics.

  6. Role, mandate and capacity of the National Society

  If analysing hazards and vulnerabilities helps us to think about ‘what might happen?’, then the second contingency planning question – ‘what are we going to do about it?’ – will largely be determined by the role and resources of the National Society and other components of the Movement. This is most important when undertaking the detailed planning explained in the next chapter (‘Develop’).

  Two of the most vital elements in understanding this are:

• capacity analysis
• resource identification.

  It is crucially important that information on capacities and resources is accu- rate and trustworthy – since this will be the basis for identifying weaknesses and gaps, as well as for making the best use of existing resources. Existing capacities can be strengthened in a strategic manner, to best meet anticipated needs during a likely disaster. Once potential emergency needs have been identified, it will become clear how best to allocate existing resources and which additional ones might be required. While there is no simple formula or complete checklist to assist in analysing capacities and identifying resources, for the purposes of Red Cross Red Crescent planning, five categories can be identified:

• community-level capacities and resources, including participatory approaches targeting various segments of the population, as well as the public and private sectors
• national and branch-level Red Cross Red Crescent capacities and resources
• regional and international institutional capacities and resources, including readiness to request and receive resources from within the Movement
• external institutional capacities and resources
• agreements with other partners.

  Responding to an emergency requires resources, and the contingency plan must take into account different levels of preparedness. Consideration should there- fore be given to the following:

• What resources are already available and in what quantities, for how many people and for how long?
• How can community resources and capacities be strengthened and increased?
• Which staff and volunteers can be brought in from other programmes during an emergency?
• What resources will be needed that are not currently available?
• What plans exist for procuring required resources?
• What plans and preparations exist for receiving and managing international assistance?

  International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

  Contingency planning guide

  Summary of steps for analysis of hazards, vulnerabilities and risks

  1. Review secondary data – including studies and analyses of hazards and threats, vulnerabilities and risks prepared by technical or scientific institutions, universities and/or other organizations with a presence in the

area฀(see฀Risk฀reference฀framework฀above).

  2.฀฀Ensure฀that฀the฀institution฀has฀the฀technical capacity and appropriate experience to carry out the risk analysis required for the disaster response or contingency plan. To help with this, collaboration could be established with technical/scientific institutions and universities. Sister societies and the฀IFRC฀can฀often฀provide฀technical฀support฀and฀share฀reference฀tools.

  3. Carry out an analysis of hazards, starting with available information on past emergencies, and taking into account probability, frequency, location, magnitude and potential impact. Do not rely only on historical data. Expertise฀from฀external฀agencies฀may฀be฀useful฀in฀understanding฀these฀ factors.

  4.฀฀Analyse฀the฀vulnerability level of those exposed to a potential hazard or threat. Support this, when possible, with indicators measuring the five main components of vulnerability: livelihood, well-being, self-protection,

social protection and government protection.