S PEK 1005496 Table Of Contant
DAFTAR ISI
KATA PENGANTAR .......................................................................................... i
UCAPAN TERIMA KASIH ................................................................................ ii
ABSTRAK................................................................................................................iii
ABSTRACT.............................................................................................................iv
DAFTAR ISI ............. ..............................................................................................v
DAFTAR TABEL ............................................................................................ viii
DAFTAR GAMBAR .......................................................................................... ix
BAB I PENDAHULUAN .................................................................................... 1
1.1. Latar Belakang Masalah ........................................................................... 1
1.2. Rumusan Masalah .................................................................................... 6
1.3. Tujuan dan Manfaat Penelitian ................................................................. 7
BAB II TINJAUAN PUSTAKA, KERANGKA PEMIKIRAN, DAN HIPOTESIS
.......................................................................................................... 8
2.1. Tinjauan Pustaka ...................................................................................... 8
2.1.1. Nilai Tukar (Kurs) ............................................................................. 8
2.1.1.1. Pengertian Nilai Tukar (Kurs) ..................................................... 8
2.1.1.2. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar (Kurs) ................ 9
2.1.1.3. Sejarah Sistem Moneter Internasional ....................................... 15
2.1.1.4. Sistem Penetapan Nilai Tukar Valas ......................................... 18
2.1.1.5. Sistem Nilai Tukar di Indonesia .. Error! Bookmark not defined.
2.1.1.6. Teori Nilai Tukar (Kurs) ........................................................... 21
2.1.2. Inflasi .............................................................................................. 23
2.1.2.1. Pengertian Inflasi ...................................................................... 23
2.1.2.2. Metode Perhitungsn Inflasi ....................................................... 24
2.1.2.3. Jenis Inflasi ............................................................................... 25
2.1.2.4. Teori Inflasi .............................................................................. 26
2.1.2.5. Hubungan Inflasi dengan Nilai Tukar........................................ 27
2.1.3. Suku Bunga ..................................................................................... 29
2.1.3.1. Pengertian Suku Bunga ............................................................. 29
2.1.3.2. Macam-macam Suku Bunga ..................................................... 30
2.1.3.3. Fungsi Suku Bunga ................................................................... 31
2.1.3.4. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi Suku Bunga ........................ 31
2.1.3.5. Teori Suku Bunga ..................................................................... 33
2.1.3.6. Pendekatan suku bunga terhadap nilai tukar .............................. 34
2.1.3.7. Hubungan Suku Bunga dengan Nilai Tukar .............................. 34
2.1.4. PDB riil ........................................................................................... 36
2.1.4.1. Pengertian PDB ........................................................................ 36
2.1.4.2. PDB Riil dan PDB Nominal ...................................................... 37
Malla Sulastri, 2014
Analisis Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Atas Dollar Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.!-2013Q.3
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
2.1.4.3. Pendekatan dalam menghitung PDB ......................................... 37
2.1.4.4. Hubungan PDB riil dengan Nilai Tukar .................................... 39
2.1.5. Penelitian Terdahulu ........................................................................ 40
2.2. Kerangka Pemikiran ............................................................................... 41
2.3. Hipotesis ................................................................................................ 44
BAB III METODE PENELITIAN ..................................................................... 45
3.1. Objek Penelitian ..................................................................................... 45
3.2. Metode Penelitian ................................................................................... 45
3.3. Operasional Variabel .............................................................................. 45
3.4. Instrumen Penelitian ............................................................................... 47
3.5. Jenis dan Sumber Data ........................................................................... 48
3.6. Teknik Analisis Data .............................................................................. 48
3.7. Uji Analisis Data .................................................................................... 49
3.7.1. Uji Normalitas ................................................................................. 49
3.7.2. Uji Asumsi Klasik ........................................................................... 49
3.7.2.1. Uji Multikolinearitas ................................................................. 49
3.7.2.2. Uji Heteroskedastisitas .............................................................. 52
3.7.2.3. Uji Autokorelasi ....................................................................... 52
3.7.3. Uji Hipotesis .................................................................................... 54
3.7.3.1. Uji Hipotesis Regresi Majemuk secara Keseluruhan (Uji F) ...... 54
3.7.3.2. Uji Hipotesis Regresi Majemuk secara Individual (Uji t) ........... 54
3.7.3.3. Koefisien Determinasi (R2) ....................................................... 55
BAB IV HASIL PENELITIAN DAN PEMBAHASAN ..................................... 56
4.1. Deskripsi Variabel Penelitian.................................................................. 56
4.1.1. Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Rupiah atas Dolar Amerika Serikat ....... 56
4.1.2. Perkembangan Selisih Inflasi Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat ..... 60
4.1.3. Perkembangan Selisih Suku Bunga Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat
........................................................................................................ 69
4.1.4. Perkembangan PDB Riil Indonesia .................................................. 73
4.2. Analisis data dan Pengujian Hipotesis..................................................... 77
4.2.1. Uji Normalitas ................................................................................. 77
4.2.2. Uji Asumsi Klasik ........................................................................... 78
4.2.2.1. Uji Multikolinieritas.................................................................. 78
4.2.2.2. Uji Heterokedastisitas ............................................................... 79
4.2.2.3. Uji Autokorelasi ....................................................................... 80
4.2.3. Pengujian Model Penelitian ............................................................. 82
4.2.4. Pengujian Hipotesis ......................................................................... 83
4.2.4.1. Pengujian Hipotesis Regresi Majemuk Secara Keseluruhan (Uji
F) .............................................................................................. 83
4.2.4.2. Pengujian Hipotesis Regresi Majemuk Secara Individu (Uji t) .. 84
4.2.4.3. Koefisien Determinasi (R2) ....................................................... 87
4.3. Pembahasan Hasil Penelitian .................................................................. 87
Malla Sulastri, 2014
Analisis Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Atas Dollar Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.!-2013Q.3
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
4.3.1. Pengaruh Selisih Inflasi terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah periode
2004Q.1-2013Q.3 ............................................................................ 89
4.3.2. Pengaruh Selisih Suku Bunga Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat
terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah Periode 2004Q.1-2013Q.3 .................. 92
4.3.3. Pengaruh PDB Riil Indonesia terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah Periode
2004Q.1-2013Q.3 ............................................................................ 94
4.3.4. Pengaruh Selisih Inflasi, Selisih Suku Bunga, dan PDB Riil Indonesia
terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah Periode 2004Q.1-2013Q.3 .................. 95
4.4. Implikasi terhadap pendidikan ................................................................ 96
BAB V KESIMPULAN ..................................................................................... 98
5.1 Kesimpulan ............................................................................................ 98
5.2 Saran ...................................................................................................... 99
DAFTAR PUSTAKA ...................................................................................... 100
Malla Sulastri, 2014
Analisis Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Atas Dollar Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.!-2013Q.3
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 1.1 Perkembangan nilai tukar rupiah atas dollar Amerika Serikat periode
2006Q.1 – 2013Q.3............................................................................ 3
Tabel 2.1 Penelitian Terdahulu ........................................................................ 40
Tabel 3.1 Operasionalisasi Variabel ................................................................. 46
Tabel 3.2 Kisi-Kisi Instrumen Penelitian .......................................................... 47
Tabel 3.3 Uji Statistik Durbin-Waston d........................................................... 53
Tabel 4.1 Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Rupiah atas Dollar Amerika Serikat Periode
2004Q.1 - 2013Q.3 (Dalam Rupiah) ................................................ 57
Tabel 4.2 Perkembangan Selisih Inflasi Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.1 - 2013Q.3(Dalam Persen) ..................................... 62
Tabel 4.3 Perkembangan Selisih Suku Bunga Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.1 - 2013Q.3 (Dalam Persen) .................................... 70
Tabel 4.4 Perkembangan PDB Riil Indonesia Periode 2004Q.1 - 2013Q.3 (Dalam
Miliar Rupiah) ................................................................................. 75
Tabel 4.5 Uji Multikolinieritas ........................................................................... 79
Tabel 4.6 Uji Autokorelasi ................................................................................. 81
Tabel 4.7 Uji Autokorelasi ................................................................................. 82
Tabel 4.8 Anova ................................................................................................ 83
Tabel 4.9 Pengujian Hipotesis secara keseluruhan (Uji F) .................................. 84
Tabel 4.10 Coefficients ...................................................................................... 85
Tabel 4.11 Pengujian Hipotesis secara Individu ................................................. 86
Malla Sulastri, 2014
Analisis Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Atas Dollar Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.!-2013Q.3
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
DAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar 1.1 Pergerakan Nilai Tukar Rupiah atas Dollar Amerika Serikat Periode
2006Q.1 – 2013Q.3............................................................................ 4
Gambar 2.1 Tingkat kurs menanggapi perubahan tingkat bunga relatif ............... 35
Gambar 2.2 Pengaruh Selisih Inflasi Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat, Selisih
Suku Bunga Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat, dan PDB riil
Indonesia terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah atas Dollar Amerika Serikat 43
Gambar 3.1 Statistik Durbin-Waston d ............................................................... 53
Gambar 4.1 Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Rupiah atas Dollar Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.1-2013Q.3 ............................................................... 59
Gambar 4.2 Perkembangan Selisih Inflasi Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.1-2013Q.3 ............................................................... 68
Gambar 4.3 Perkembangan Selisih Suku Bunga Indonesia dengan Amerika
Serikat Periode 2004Q.1-2013Q.3.................................................... 73
Gambar 4.4 Perkembangan PDB Riil Indonesia Periode 2004Q.1-2013Q.3........ 76
Gambar 4.5 Uji Normalitas ................................................................................ 78
Gambar 4.6 Uji Heterosskedastisitas .................................................................. 80
Malla Sulastri, 2014
Analisis Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Atas Dollar Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.!-2013Q.3
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
KATA PENGANTAR .......................................................................................... i
UCAPAN TERIMA KASIH ................................................................................ ii
ABSTRAK................................................................................................................iii
ABSTRACT.............................................................................................................iv
DAFTAR ISI ............. ..............................................................................................v
DAFTAR TABEL ............................................................................................ viii
DAFTAR GAMBAR .......................................................................................... ix
BAB I PENDAHULUAN .................................................................................... 1
1.1. Latar Belakang Masalah ........................................................................... 1
1.2. Rumusan Masalah .................................................................................... 6
1.3. Tujuan dan Manfaat Penelitian ................................................................. 7
BAB II TINJAUAN PUSTAKA, KERANGKA PEMIKIRAN, DAN HIPOTESIS
.......................................................................................................... 8
2.1. Tinjauan Pustaka ...................................................................................... 8
2.1.1. Nilai Tukar (Kurs) ............................................................................. 8
2.1.1.1. Pengertian Nilai Tukar (Kurs) ..................................................... 8
2.1.1.2. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar (Kurs) ................ 9
2.1.1.3. Sejarah Sistem Moneter Internasional ....................................... 15
2.1.1.4. Sistem Penetapan Nilai Tukar Valas ......................................... 18
2.1.1.5. Sistem Nilai Tukar di Indonesia .. Error! Bookmark not defined.
2.1.1.6. Teori Nilai Tukar (Kurs) ........................................................... 21
2.1.2. Inflasi .............................................................................................. 23
2.1.2.1. Pengertian Inflasi ...................................................................... 23
2.1.2.2. Metode Perhitungsn Inflasi ....................................................... 24
2.1.2.3. Jenis Inflasi ............................................................................... 25
2.1.2.4. Teori Inflasi .............................................................................. 26
2.1.2.5. Hubungan Inflasi dengan Nilai Tukar........................................ 27
2.1.3. Suku Bunga ..................................................................................... 29
2.1.3.1. Pengertian Suku Bunga ............................................................. 29
2.1.3.2. Macam-macam Suku Bunga ..................................................... 30
2.1.3.3. Fungsi Suku Bunga ................................................................... 31
2.1.3.4. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi Suku Bunga ........................ 31
2.1.3.5. Teori Suku Bunga ..................................................................... 33
2.1.3.6. Pendekatan suku bunga terhadap nilai tukar .............................. 34
2.1.3.7. Hubungan Suku Bunga dengan Nilai Tukar .............................. 34
2.1.4. PDB riil ........................................................................................... 36
2.1.4.1. Pengertian PDB ........................................................................ 36
2.1.4.2. PDB Riil dan PDB Nominal ...................................................... 37
Malla Sulastri, 2014
Analisis Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Atas Dollar Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.!-2013Q.3
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
2.1.4.3. Pendekatan dalam menghitung PDB ......................................... 37
2.1.4.4. Hubungan PDB riil dengan Nilai Tukar .................................... 39
2.1.5. Penelitian Terdahulu ........................................................................ 40
2.2. Kerangka Pemikiran ............................................................................... 41
2.3. Hipotesis ................................................................................................ 44
BAB III METODE PENELITIAN ..................................................................... 45
3.1. Objek Penelitian ..................................................................................... 45
3.2. Metode Penelitian ................................................................................... 45
3.3. Operasional Variabel .............................................................................. 45
3.4. Instrumen Penelitian ............................................................................... 47
3.5. Jenis dan Sumber Data ........................................................................... 48
3.6. Teknik Analisis Data .............................................................................. 48
3.7. Uji Analisis Data .................................................................................... 49
3.7.1. Uji Normalitas ................................................................................. 49
3.7.2. Uji Asumsi Klasik ........................................................................... 49
3.7.2.1. Uji Multikolinearitas ................................................................. 49
3.7.2.2. Uji Heteroskedastisitas .............................................................. 52
3.7.2.3. Uji Autokorelasi ....................................................................... 52
3.7.3. Uji Hipotesis .................................................................................... 54
3.7.3.1. Uji Hipotesis Regresi Majemuk secara Keseluruhan (Uji F) ...... 54
3.7.3.2. Uji Hipotesis Regresi Majemuk secara Individual (Uji t) ........... 54
3.7.3.3. Koefisien Determinasi (R2) ....................................................... 55
BAB IV HASIL PENELITIAN DAN PEMBAHASAN ..................................... 56
4.1. Deskripsi Variabel Penelitian.................................................................. 56
4.1.1. Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Rupiah atas Dolar Amerika Serikat ....... 56
4.1.2. Perkembangan Selisih Inflasi Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat ..... 60
4.1.3. Perkembangan Selisih Suku Bunga Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat
........................................................................................................ 69
4.1.4. Perkembangan PDB Riil Indonesia .................................................. 73
4.2. Analisis data dan Pengujian Hipotesis..................................................... 77
4.2.1. Uji Normalitas ................................................................................. 77
4.2.2. Uji Asumsi Klasik ........................................................................... 78
4.2.2.1. Uji Multikolinieritas.................................................................. 78
4.2.2.2. Uji Heterokedastisitas ............................................................... 79
4.2.2.3. Uji Autokorelasi ....................................................................... 80
4.2.3. Pengujian Model Penelitian ............................................................. 82
4.2.4. Pengujian Hipotesis ......................................................................... 83
4.2.4.1. Pengujian Hipotesis Regresi Majemuk Secara Keseluruhan (Uji
F) .............................................................................................. 83
4.2.4.2. Pengujian Hipotesis Regresi Majemuk Secara Individu (Uji t) .. 84
4.2.4.3. Koefisien Determinasi (R2) ....................................................... 87
4.3. Pembahasan Hasil Penelitian .................................................................. 87
Malla Sulastri, 2014
Analisis Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Atas Dollar Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.!-2013Q.3
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
4.3.1. Pengaruh Selisih Inflasi terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah periode
2004Q.1-2013Q.3 ............................................................................ 89
4.3.2. Pengaruh Selisih Suku Bunga Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat
terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah Periode 2004Q.1-2013Q.3 .................. 92
4.3.3. Pengaruh PDB Riil Indonesia terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah Periode
2004Q.1-2013Q.3 ............................................................................ 94
4.3.4. Pengaruh Selisih Inflasi, Selisih Suku Bunga, dan PDB Riil Indonesia
terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah Periode 2004Q.1-2013Q.3 .................. 95
4.4. Implikasi terhadap pendidikan ................................................................ 96
BAB V KESIMPULAN ..................................................................................... 98
5.1 Kesimpulan ............................................................................................ 98
5.2 Saran ...................................................................................................... 99
DAFTAR PUSTAKA ...................................................................................... 100
Malla Sulastri, 2014
Analisis Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Atas Dollar Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.!-2013Q.3
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 1.1 Perkembangan nilai tukar rupiah atas dollar Amerika Serikat periode
2006Q.1 – 2013Q.3............................................................................ 3
Tabel 2.1 Penelitian Terdahulu ........................................................................ 40
Tabel 3.1 Operasionalisasi Variabel ................................................................. 46
Tabel 3.2 Kisi-Kisi Instrumen Penelitian .......................................................... 47
Tabel 3.3 Uji Statistik Durbin-Waston d........................................................... 53
Tabel 4.1 Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Rupiah atas Dollar Amerika Serikat Periode
2004Q.1 - 2013Q.3 (Dalam Rupiah) ................................................ 57
Tabel 4.2 Perkembangan Selisih Inflasi Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.1 - 2013Q.3(Dalam Persen) ..................................... 62
Tabel 4.3 Perkembangan Selisih Suku Bunga Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.1 - 2013Q.3 (Dalam Persen) .................................... 70
Tabel 4.4 Perkembangan PDB Riil Indonesia Periode 2004Q.1 - 2013Q.3 (Dalam
Miliar Rupiah) ................................................................................. 75
Tabel 4.5 Uji Multikolinieritas ........................................................................... 79
Tabel 4.6 Uji Autokorelasi ................................................................................. 81
Tabel 4.7 Uji Autokorelasi ................................................................................. 82
Tabel 4.8 Anova ................................................................................................ 83
Tabel 4.9 Pengujian Hipotesis secara keseluruhan (Uji F) .................................. 84
Tabel 4.10 Coefficients ...................................................................................... 85
Tabel 4.11 Pengujian Hipotesis secara Individu ................................................. 86
Malla Sulastri, 2014
Analisis Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Atas Dollar Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.!-2013Q.3
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
DAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar 1.1 Pergerakan Nilai Tukar Rupiah atas Dollar Amerika Serikat Periode
2006Q.1 – 2013Q.3............................................................................ 4
Gambar 2.1 Tingkat kurs menanggapi perubahan tingkat bunga relatif ............... 35
Gambar 2.2 Pengaruh Selisih Inflasi Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat, Selisih
Suku Bunga Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat, dan PDB riil
Indonesia terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah atas Dollar Amerika Serikat 43
Gambar 3.1 Statistik Durbin-Waston d ............................................................... 53
Gambar 4.1 Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Rupiah atas Dollar Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.1-2013Q.3 ............................................................... 59
Gambar 4.2 Perkembangan Selisih Inflasi Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.1-2013Q.3 ............................................................... 68
Gambar 4.3 Perkembangan Selisih Suku Bunga Indonesia dengan Amerika
Serikat Periode 2004Q.1-2013Q.3.................................................... 73
Gambar 4.4 Perkembangan PDB Riil Indonesia Periode 2004Q.1-2013Q.3........ 76
Gambar 4.5 Uji Normalitas ................................................................................ 78
Gambar 4.6 Uji Heterosskedastisitas .................................................................. 80
Malla Sulastri, 2014
Analisis Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Atas Dollar Amerika Serikat
Periode 2004Q.!-2013Q.3
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu