makalah hendri saparini phd39859efb12057e73cf3270ba6564337d
INVESTASI DAN PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH
Hendri Saparini, Ph.D
saparini@coreindonesia.org
www.coreindonesia.org
Seminar Mahasiswa STIAMI
Bekasi, 29 Maret 2015
Potensi Investasi dan Perdagangan
Indonesia Ekonomi Penting Dunia
Pertumbuhan Stabil dan Tertinggi Ke 3 dan GDP No. 16 Dunia
10
9
%
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
United…
China
Japan
Germany
France
United…
Brazil
Russia
Italy
Canada
India
Australia
Mexico
Korea
Indonesia
Turkey
Argentina
United…
South…
0
0,87
5
10
15
Thousand Billion
20
Penduduk Terbesar No. 4 Dunia dan SDA Melimpah
Berpotensi menjadi salah satu production base dunia
Ranking
Product
Exported Value
(bill. US$)
Share Export
(%)
Share in world
exports (%)
Ranking in world
exports
1
Coal
24.29
12.8
19
2
2
Petroleum gases
20.52
10.8
5
5
3
Palm oil & its fraction
17.60
9.3
46
1
4
Crude petroleum oils
12.29
6.5
1
23
5
Natural rubber
7.86
4.1
22
3
6
Copper ores and
concentrates
2.59
1.4
5
5
7
Coconut (copra)
2.46
1.3
45
1
8
Petroleum coke
2.38
1.3
11
2
12
Unwrought tin
2.05
1.1
34
1
13
Plywood
2.01
1.1
14
2
Total 10
94.07
49.5
MP3EI: Enam Koridor Ekonomi
Tiap Daerah memiliki potensi dan daya saing berbeda
Sumatera Corridor:
Ce ter for Productio a d
Processing of Natural
Resources and As
Natio ’s E ergy Reser es
Kalimantan Corridor:
Ce ter for Productio
and Processing of
National Mining and
E ergy Reser es
Sulawesi Corridor:
Ce ter for Productio
and Processing of
National Agricultural,
Plantation, Fishery, Oil &
Gas, a d Mi i g
Mega economic centers
Economic centers
Java Corridor:
Dri er for Natio al
Industry and Service
Pro isio
Bali – Nusa Tenggara Corridor:
Gate ay for Touris a d
Natio al Food “upport
Papua – Maluku Islands
Corridor:
Ce ter for De elop e t
of Food, Fishery, Energy
a d Natio al Mi i g
PMA Primer dan Sekunder Akan Tumbuh Lebih Tinggi
Indonesia tujuan investasi utama
UNCTAD: Indonesia’s ranking rose from
position 4 to 3 as a prime investment
destination 2014-2016
American business representatives:
popular location in ASEAN for
business expansion
Promising Countries For Japanese
FDI (JBIC)
Investasi Langsung Tumbuh
PMA dan PMDN
1,000
350
TK PMA
(skala kanan)
300
900
800
700
600
TK PMDN
(skala kanan)
200
500
150
400
Investasi PMA
(skala kiri)
100
RIBU ORANG
TRILIUN RUPIAH
250
300
200
50
Investasi PMDN
(skala kiri)
100
-
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Sumber: BKPM
Penanaman Modal Asing 2013
Industri kendaraan bermotor mendominasi
PMA Menurut Sektor
Lainnya
9%
Dominasi Manufaktur
Transportasi
, Gudang &
Komunikasi
5%
Pertanian
6%
Industri
Manufaktur
55%
Ind.
Kendaraa
n
Bermotor
24%
Listrik, Gas
dan Air
8%
Pertambang
an
17%
Ind. Logam,
Mesin &
Elektronik
21%
Ind. Kertas
dan
Percetakan
7%
Industri
Lainnya
15%
Industri
Makanan
13%
Kimia dan Farmasi
20%
Sumber: BI
Penanaman Modal Domestik, 2013
Industri makanan masih menjadi primadona
PMDN Menurut Sektor
Dominasi Manufaktur
Lainnya
4% Pertanian
5%
Industri
Manufaktur
33%
Listrik, Gas
dan Air
25%
Industri
Lainnya
12%
Konstruksi
7%
Transportasi
,&
Komunikasi
13%
Pertambang
an
13%
Industri
Makanan
34%
Ind. Logam,
Mesin &
Elektronik
16%
Ind.
Mineral
Non Logam
10%
Ind. Kimia
dan Farmasi
14%
Ind. Kertas
dan
Percetakan
14%
Sumber: BI
Investasi Untuk Penguatan Daya Saing
.........ketergantungan tinggi pada impor
impor raw material dan intermediate goods
Consumption
Raw Material and Intermediete goods
Capital goods
200.0
180.0
160.0
140.0
Miliar US$
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Sumber: BI
Struktur Impor: 70% Bahan Baku dan Penolong
Ketergantungan harus diselesaikan dengan membangun supporting industri
pharmaceutical products
repair and installation of machinery and equipment
machinery and equipment n.e.c.
chemicals and chemical products
leather and related products
wearing apparel
electrical equipment
basic metals
computer, electronic and optical products
other transport equipment
fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment
rubber and plastics products
textiles
%
Defisit Transaksi Berjalan Tidak Mudah Diselesaikan
Defisit neraca minyak, pendapatan dan jasa, akibat permasalahan
struktural
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
Millions of USD
4,000
2,000
Nonmigas, 4,637
Gas, 3,501
Barang , 1,641
0
-2,000
Jasa - jasa, -2,313
-4,000
Pendapatan, -5,694
-6,000
Minyak, -6,497
-8,000
-10,000
Sumber : BI
ASEAN COMMUNITY
ASEAN SOCIAL AND CULTURAL
COMMUNITY
ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
Single Market and
Production Base
Competitive
Economic Region
Free Flow of Goods
Competition Policy
SME Development
Consumer Protection
Initiative for ASEAN
Integration
Free Flow of Services
Free Flow of Investment
Freer Flow of Capital
Free Flow of
Skilled Labour
Priority Integration
Sectors
Food, Agriculture,
Forestry
Intellectual Property
Rights
Infrastructure
Development
Taxation
e-Commerce
Equitable Economic
Development
ASEAN POLITICAL AND SECURITY
COMMUNITY
Integration into the
Global Economy
Coherent approach
towards external
economic relations
Enhanced
participation in global
supply networks
Neraca Perdagangan Intra-ASEAN:
kinerja Indonesia relatif paling buruk, defisit makin melebar
perlu strategi yang tidak memperlebar defisit perdagangan & neraca transaksi berjalan
Milyar US$
40
35
Non-Migas
Singapura
30
25
20
15
Thailand
10
Malaysia
5
-
Vietnam
Filipina
(5)
INDONESIA
(10)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Perdagangan Jasa ASEAN
defisit Indonesia terbesar dan persisten
dibutuhkan strategi dan kebijakan untuk menutup defisit jasa yg lebar
15
US$ Milyar
Singapura
10
5
Filipina
Malaysia
0
Vietnam
-5
Thailand
-10
Indonesia
-15
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Indonesia hanya tinggal mengandalkan strategi Non-Tariff Barriers
kerjasama ekonomi yang agresif, mengakibatkan
penurunan Import Tariff yang tanpa strategi
India
(2013)
Brazil
(2011)
China
(2011)
Russia
(2013)
Indonesia
(2011)
All products
13.9
12.2
12.0
10.1
4.8
Agricultural
43.3
11.2
22.6
23.4
13.6
Industrial
11.8
12.3
11.2
9.2
4.2
Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-China
pasca CAFTA, defisit semakin membengkak
35
30
25
20
Import
Miliar US$
15
Export
10
5
Trade Balance
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2001
2002
2003
2004
Sumber: International Trade Center
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-Jepang
pasca JIEPA, non migas terus mengalami defisit
Value of Export & Import
Trade Balance
40
20
Oil & gas
35
Export
15
30
10
Import
Miliar US$
Miliar US$
25
20
15
5
Trade Balance
-
10
(5)
5
Non-oil and gas
0
(10)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sumber: International Trade Center
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Investasi Untuk Penyelesaian
Kemiskinan dan Pengangguran
Kinerja Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
Tidak menyelesaikan kesenjangan, kemiskinan dan pengangguran
35
HIGH POVERTY
LOW UNEMPLOYMENT
HIGH POVERTY
HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
Papua Barat
30
Papua
25
Poverty (%)
Nusa Tenggara Timur
20
Bengkulu
Maluku
Gorontalo
Aceh
Nusa Tenggara Barat
15
Sulawesi Barat
10
Kalimantan Tengah
5
LOW POVERTY
Jawa Barat
Kalimantan Timur Banten HIGH
UNEMPLOYMENT
Sulawesi Utara
Bali
LOW POVERTY
LOW UNEMPLOYMENT
DKI Jakarta
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Open Unemployment Rate (%)
Sumber: BPS, @CORE
Kesenjangan Melebar
81
2003
93
2009
(56
134
2010
D
K
40
30
20
ak
0
10
IJ
K
Sumber:ADB, Bank Dunia
Provinsi
l
i
l
t
i l l
ta al e e ng en im pr bi au ar lut lut ar ar ut e ar im e ng IY ra ng lu ng D B T lo ku a ua
ar B ls ab te nt lt e m i lb u a b ab m ls lb at s te D ult te ku u A T NT ta lu ar p
N
u
a
R
a
u
S
m
M
J
S ul g p N
K B al a a K J a
S u J um a
on a B P a
K
u
K
S
S
B
S J
S en am
S
or M ua
B L
G
ap
P
Kelas menengah baru pesat, kemiskinan masih sangat tinggi
(25%
popul
45
1999
Persen
160
140
120
100
0
20
40
60
80
Millions
Mendorong investasi bukan sekadar
mendulang Pendapatan Asli Daerah.
Perlu pertimbangan penguatan daya saing dan
penyelesaian masalah struktural
Terimakasih
Hendri Saparini, Ph.D
saparini@coreindonesia.org
www.coreindonesia.org
Seminar Mahasiswa STIAMI
Bekasi, 29 Maret 2015
Potensi Investasi dan Perdagangan
Indonesia Ekonomi Penting Dunia
Pertumbuhan Stabil dan Tertinggi Ke 3 dan GDP No. 16 Dunia
10
9
%
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
United…
China
Japan
Germany
France
United…
Brazil
Russia
Italy
Canada
India
Australia
Mexico
Korea
Indonesia
Turkey
Argentina
United…
South…
0
0,87
5
10
15
Thousand Billion
20
Penduduk Terbesar No. 4 Dunia dan SDA Melimpah
Berpotensi menjadi salah satu production base dunia
Ranking
Product
Exported Value
(bill. US$)
Share Export
(%)
Share in world
exports (%)
Ranking in world
exports
1
Coal
24.29
12.8
19
2
2
Petroleum gases
20.52
10.8
5
5
3
Palm oil & its fraction
17.60
9.3
46
1
4
Crude petroleum oils
12.29
6.5
1
23
5
Natural rubber
7.86
4.1
22
3
6
Copper ores and
concentrates
2.59
1.4
5
5
7
Coconut (copra)
2.46
1.3
45
1
8
Petroleum coke
2.38
1.3
11
2
12
Unwrought tin
2.05
1.1
34
1
13
Plywood
2.01
1.1
14
2
Total 10
94.07
49.5
MP3EI: Enam Koridor Ekonomi
Tiap Daerah memiliki potensi dan daya saing berbeda
Sumatera Corridor:
Ce ter for Productio a d
Processing of Natural
Resources and As
Natio ’s E ergy Reser es
Kalimantan Corridor:
Ce ter for Productio
and Processing of
National Mining and
E ergy Reser es
Sulawesi Corridor:
Ce ter for Productio
and Processing of
National Agricultural,
Plantation, Fishery, Oil &
Gas, a d Mi i g
Mega economic centers
Economic centers
Java Corridor:
Dri er for Natio al
Industry and Service
Pro isio
Bali – Nusa Tenggara Corridor:
Gate ay for Touris a d
Natio al Food “upport
Papua – Maluku Islands
Corridor:
Ce ter for De elop e t
of Food, Fishery, Energy
a d Natio al Mi i g
PMA Primer dan Sekunder Akan Tumbuh Lebih Tinggi
Indonesia tujuan investasi utama
UNCTAD: Indonesia’s ranking rose from
position 4 to 3 as a prime investment
destination 2014-2016
American business representatives:
popular location in ASEAN for
business expansion
Promising Countries For Japanese
FDI (JBIC)
Investasi Langsung Tumbuh
PMA dan PMDN
1,000
350
TK PMA
(skala kanan)
300
900
800
700
600
TK PMDN
(skala kanan)
200
500
150
400
Investasi PMA
(skala kiri)
100
RIBU ORANG
TRILIUN RUPIAH
250
300
200
50
Investasi PMDN
(skala kiri)
100
-
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Sumber: BKPM
Penanaman Modal Asing 2013
Industri kendaraan bermotor mendominasi
PMA Menurut Sektor
Lainnya
9%
Dominasi Manufaktur
Transportasi
, Gudang &
Komunikasi
5%
Pertanian
6%
Industri
Manufaktur
55%
Ind.
Kendaraa
n
Bermotor
24%
Listrik, Gas
dan Air
8%
Pertambang
an
17%
Ind. Logam,
Mesin &
Elektronik
21%
Ind. Kertas
dan
Percetakan
7%
Industri
Lainnya
15%
Industri
Makanan
13%
Kimia dan Farmasi
20%
Sumber: BI
Penanaman Modal Domestik, 2013
Industri makanan masih menjadi primadona
PMDN Menurut Sektor
Dominasi Manufaktur
Lainnya
4% Pertanian
5%
Industri
Manufaktur
33%
Listrik, Gas
dan Air
25%
Industri
Lainnya
12%
Konstruksi
7%
Transportasi
,&
Komunikasi
13%
Pertambang
an
13%
Industri
Makanan
34%
Ind. Logam,
Mesin &
Elektronik
16%
Ind.
Mineral
Non Logam
10%
Ind. Kimia
dan Farmasi
14%
Ind. Kertas
dan
Percetakan
14%
Sumber: BI
Investasi Untuk Penguatan Daya Saing
.........ketergantungan tinggi pada impor
impor raw material dan intermediate goods
Consumption
Raw Material and Intermediete goods
Capital goods
200.0
180.0
160.0
140.0
Miliar US$
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Sumber: BI
Struktur Impor: 70% Bahan Baku dan Penolong
Ketergantungan harus diselesaikan dengan membangun supporting industri
pharmaceutical products
repair and installation of machinery and equipment
machinery and equipment n.e.c.
chemicals and chemical products
leather and related products
wearing apparel
electrical equipment
basic metals
computer, electronic and optical products
other transport equipment
fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment
rubber and plastics products
textiles
%
Defisit Transaksi Berjalan Tidak Mudah Diselesaikan
Defisit neraca minyak, pendapatan dan jasa, akibat permasalahan
struktural
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
Millions of USD
4,000
2,000
Nonmigas, 4,637
Gas, 3,501
Barang , 1,641
0
-2,000
Jasa - jasa, -2,313
-4,000
Pendapatan, -5,694
-6,000
Minyak, -6,497
-8,000
-10,000
Sumber : BI
ASEAN COMMUNITY
ASEAN SOCIAL AND CULTURAL
COMMUNITY
ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
Single Market and
Production Base
Competitive
Economic Region
Free Flow of Goods
Competition Policy
SME Development
Consumer Protection
Initiative for ASEAN
Integration
Free Flow of Services
Free Flow of Investment
Freer Flow of Capital
Free Flow of
Skilled Labour
Priority Integration
Sectors
Food, Agriculture,
Forestry
Intellectual Property
Rights
Infrastructure
Development
Taxation
e-Commerce
Equitable Economic
Development
ASEAN POLITICAL AND SECURITY
COMMUNITY
Integration into the
Global Economy
Coherent approach
towards external
economic relations
Enhanced
participation in global
supply networks
Neraca Perdagangan Intra-ASEAN:
kinerja Indonesia relatif paling buruk, defisit makin melebar
perlu strategi yang tidak memperlebar defisit perdagangan & neraca transaksi berjalan
Milyar US$
40
35
Non-Migas
Singapura
30
25
20
15
Thailand
10
Malaysia
5
-
Vietnam
Filipina
(5)
INDONESIA
(10)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Perdagangan Jasa ASEAN
defisit Indonesia terbesar dan persisten
dibutuhkan strategi dan kebijakan untuk menutup defisit jasa yg lebar
15
US$ Milyar
Singapura
10
5
Filipina
Malaysia
0
Vietnam
-5
Thailand
-10
Indonesia
-15
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Indonesia hanya tinggal mengandalkan strategi Non-Tariff Barriers
kerjasama ekonomi yang agresif, mengakibatkan
penurunan Import Tariff yang tanpa strategi
India
(2013)
Brazil
(2011)
China
(2011)
Russia
(2013)
Indonesia
(2011)
All products
13.9
12.2
12.0
10.1
4.8
Agricultural
43.3
11.2
22.6
23.4
13.6
Industrial
11.8
12.3
11.2
9.2
4.2
Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-China
pasca CAFTA, defisit semakin membengkak
35
30
25
20
Import
Miliar US$
15
Export
10
5
Trade Balance
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2001
2002
2003
2004
Sumber: International Trade Center
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-Jepang
pasca JIEPA, non migas terus mengalami defisit
Value of Export & Import
Trade Balance
40
20
Oil & gas
35
Export
15
30
10
Import
Miliar US$
Miliar US$
25
20
15
5
Trade Balance
-
10
(5)
5
Non-oil and gas
0
(10)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sumber: International Trade Center
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Investasi Untuk Penyelesaian
Kemiskinan dan Pengangguran
Kinerja Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
Tidak menyelesaikan kesenjangan, kemiskinan dan pengangguran
35
HIGH POVERTY
LOW UNEMPLOYMENT
HIGH POVERTY
HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
Papua Barat
30
Papua
25
Poverty (%)
Nusa Tenggara Timur
20
Bengkulu
Maluku
Gorontalo
Aceh
Nusa Tenggara Barat
15
Sulawesi Barat
10
Kalimantan Tengah
5
LOW POVERTY
Jawa Barat
Kalimantan Timur Banten HIGH
UNEMPLOYMENT
Sulawesi Utara
Bali
LOW POVERTY
LOW UNEMPLOYMENT
DKI Jakarta
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Open Unemployment Rate (%)
Sumber: BPS, @CORE
Kesenjangan Melebar
81
2003
93
2009
(56
134
2010
D
K
40
30
20
ak
0
10
IJ
K
Sumber:ADB, Bank Dunia
Provinsi
l
i
l
t
i l l
ta al e e ng en im pr bi au ar lut lut ar ar ut e ar im e ng IY ra ng lu ng D B T lo ku a ua
ar B ls ab te nt lt e m i lb u a b ab m ls lb at s te D ult te ku u A T NT ta lu ar p
N
u
a
R
a
u
S
m
M
J
S ul g p N
K B al a a K J a
S u J um a
on a B P a
K
u
K
S
S
B
S J
S en am
S
or M ua
B L
G
ap
P
Kelas menengah baru pesat, kemiskinan masih sangat tinggi
(25%
popul
45
1999
Persen
160
140
120
100
0
20
40
60
80
Millions
Mendorong investasi bukan sekadar
mendulang Pendapatan Asli Daerah.
Perlu pertimbangan penguatan daya saing dan
penyelesaian masalah struktural
Terimakasih