INDF Valuasi Murah dengan Laba Stabil 20180426 NHKS Company Report (Bahasa)

  Kinerja Divisi Agribisnis: Penopang Kinerja 2017 Penjualan INDF meningkat sebesar 5,1% dari Rp66,7 triliun pada 2016 menjadi Rp70,1 triliun pada 2017. Penopang terbesar kenaikan penjualan pada 2017 adalah penjualan divisi agribisnis yang meningkat 9,4% dari Rp12,4 triliun pada 2016 menjadi Rp13,6 triliun pada 2017. Divisi CBP dan divisi tepung masing-masing mencatat pertumbuhan penjualan sebesar 4,2% dan 3,5%.

• 10.3%

  INDF mampu menjaga margin kotor yang stabil di kisaran 55% yang diperkirakan tetap terjaga sepanjang 2018. Salah satu penopang kestabilan tersebut adalah divisi CBP yang menguasai 70% pangsa pasar mie instan di Indonesia sehingga INDF mampu mengendalikan harga jual. Selain itu, divisi tepung juga menerapkan harga jual cost plus sehingga margin keuntungan tetap terjaga. Target Harga Rp8.175 Kami menggunakan estimasi forward P/E sebesar 15,7x (rata-rata 3 tahun) untuk memperoleh target harga pada Desember 2018. Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/E 2018/E sebesar 16,4x. Saat ini, INDF diperdagangkan pada P/E 2018/E sebesar 13,9x.

  Kinerja Divisi Tepung: Penopang Kinerja 2018 Kami memperkirakan bahwa pada 2018, penjualan divisi agribisnis hanya meningkat sebesar 2,2% yang lebih rendah dibandingkan peningkatan penjualan pada 2017. Hal ini disebabkan oleh harga minyak sawit yang diperkirakan akan stabil sepanjang 2018. Namun, penopang pertumbuhan lainnya diperkirakan berasal dari divisi tepung yang membukukan peningkatan penjualan sebesar 7,9% pada 2018 akibat peningkatan harga gandum dunia. Margin Keuntungan yang Tetap Stabil

  vs. Last Price +18.5% Shares data

  Last Price (IDR) 6,900 Price date as of Apr 24, 2018 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 8,925/6,800 Free float (%)

  49.9 Outstanding sh.(mn) 8,780 Market Cap (IDR bn) 59,706 Market Cap (USD mn) 4,289 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)

  7.40 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)

  55.27 Foreign Ownership 99.9%

  Consumer Staples Packaged Food & Agricultural Products Bloomberg

INDF IJ

  INDF.JK Joni Wintarja

  P/E 16.8x 16.1x 13.9x 13.2x P/BV 1.6x 1.4x 1.2x 1.2x EV/EBITDA 9.6x 9.7x 8.5x 8.2x DPS (IDR) 168 235 236 248

  Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Company Report | Apr 26, 2018 Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) Valuasi Murah dengan Laba Stabil Buy Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 8,175 Consensus Price (IDR) 9,117 TP to Consensus Price

  Reuters

• 62 21 797 6202, ext:138

  Abs. Ret. -8.6% -3.5% -14.6% -14.0% Rel. Ret.

  12M

  3M

  1M

  Share Price Performance YTD

  Dividend yield 2.1% 3.1% 3.4% 3.6% Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research

  8.0% 8.2% 8.1% 8.3%

  joni.wintarja@nhsec.co.id

  ROIC

  4.8% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9%

  ROE 9.5% 9.2% 9.1% 9.1% ROA

  6.2% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9%

  BVPS (IDR) 5,004 5,325 5,587 5,860 EBITDA margin 15.9% 15.0% 15.7% 16.0% NPM

  EBITDA 10,614 10,528 11,600 12,368 Net profit 4,145 4,168 4,373 4,580 EPS (IDR) 472 475 498 522

  Sales growth 4.2% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0%

  Sales 66,750 70,187 73,699 77,420

  Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E

  EPS growth 39.6% 0.6% 4.9% 4.7%

• 6.9% -3.8%
• 8.7% -24.0%

  Company Report

  Apr 26, 2018

  Sekilas tentang INDF Pada dua dekade terakhir, INDF telah bertransformasi menjadi sebuah perusahaan Total Food Solutions dengan kegiatan operasional yang mencakup seluruh tahapan proses produksi makanan — mulai dari produksi hingga pengolahan bahan baku menjadi produk akhir yang tersedia di pasar. Kini, INDF dikenal sebagai perusahaan yang mapan dan terkemuka di setiap kategori bisnisnya. Dalam menjalankan kegiatan operasionalnya,

  INDF memperoleh manfaat dari skala ekonomis serta ketangguhan model bisnisnya yang terdiri dari empat kelompok usaha strategis (”Grup”) yang saling melengkapi. Divisi Produk Konsumen Bermerek (CBP) didukung oleh kekuatan merek-merek produknya. Grup CBP memproduksi beragam produk konsumen bermerek, antara lain mie instan, dairy, makanan ringan, penyedap makanan, nutrisi dan makanan khusus, serta minuman. Divisi Bogasari memiliki kegiatan usaha utama memproduksi tepung terigu dan pasta. Divisi ini didukung oleh unit usaha perkapalan serta kemasan. Divisi Agribisnis meliputi penelitian dan pengembangan, pemuliaan benih bibit, pembudidayaan dan pengolahan kelapa sawit hingga produksi dan pemasaran produk minyak goreng, margarin serta shortening. Divisi ini juga melakukan budidaya dan pengolahan karet, tebu, dan tanaman lainnya. Divisi Distribusi memilliki kegiatan utama mendistribusikan sebagian besar produk konsumen Indofood dan anak-anak perusahaan Indofood, serta berbagai produk pihak ketiga.

  Industri Makanan di ASEAN

  INDF memiliki P/E yang paling rendah di ASEAN, yaitu hanya sebesar 13,9x. Memiliki P/E yang murah, INDF memiliki imbal hasil dividen yang cukup tinggi sebesar 3,4%. Hal ini menjadikan INDF pilihan yang menarik untuk sektor consumer staples di ASEAN.

  ASEAN Food Companies Market Total Asset Net Profit Net Profit Company Cap ROE P/E P/BV Dividend (USD mn) Growth Margin Yield (USD mn)

  INDF 4,571 6,472 4.9% 5.9% 9.1% 13.9x 1.2x 3.4%

  ICBP 7,197 2,327 14.4% 11.7% 20.2% 22.0x 4.2x 2.0%

  Malaysia

  NESTLE (MALAYSIA) BERHAD 9,092 630 1.4% 12.3% 100.3% 54.3x 54.8x 1.8% PPB GROUP BERHAD 5,881 5,636 15.4% 28.0% 5.8% 18.8x 1.1x 1.3%

  Thailand

  THAI UNION GROUP PCL 2,920 4,491 14.6% 4.4% 13.7% 14.9x 2.0x 3.5% THAI PRESIDENT FOODS PCL 1,917 903 0.6% 13.2% 15.1% 21.0x 3.0x 0.0%

• Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research

  Company Report

  Apr 26, 2018 Source: Company, NHKS Research

  INDF Sales Trend | FY2013 - FY2018E

  Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Sales Contribution Trend | 2014 - 2017 Agribusiness Division Sales Trend | 2014-2017

  Source: Company, NHKS Research

  CBP Division Sales Trend | 2014-2017

  Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Performance Highlights Flour Division Sales Trend | 2014-2017

  Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Distribution Division Sales Trend | 2014-2017

  Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Company Report

  Apr 26, 2018

  Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 3 years Dynamic Forward P/E band | Last 3 years

  Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research

  Rating and target price update Target Price Revision Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus

  06/19/2017 Buy 10,275 (Dec 2017) 8,325 9,602 +23.4% +7.0% 09/22/2017 Buy 10,250 (Dec 2018) 8,725 9,464 +17.5% +8.3% 12/13/2017 Buy 9,825 (Dec 2018) 7,350 9,454 +33.7% +3.9% 04/26/2018 Buy 8,175 (Dec 2018) 6,900 9,117 +18.5% 10.3%

• Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg

  Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price

  Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research

  NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings

  1. Period: End of year target price

  2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication : Greater than +15%

   Buy : -15% to +15%  Hold : Less than -15%  Sell

  Company Report

  Apr 26, 2018

  Summary of Financials

DISCLAIMER

INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET

  

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errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia ^{INDF Summary Last Price (IDR) 6,900}

^{Target Price (IDR) 8,175 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E}

^{Rating: Buy ROE 9.5% 9.2% 9.1% 9.1% ROA 4.8% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% ROIC 8.0% 8.2% 8.1% 8.3% EBITDA/Equi ty 24.4% 23.2% 24.2% 24.6%}

^{in IDR Bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E EBITDA/As s ets 4.8% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9%}

^{Sales 66,750 70,187 73,699 77,420 Ca s h Di vi dend IDR bn) 1,475 2,063 2,076 2,178}

^{Growth (% y/y) 4.2% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% Di vi dend Yi el d (%) 2.1% 3.1% 3.4% 3.6%}

^{COGS (47,322) (50,318) (52,820) (55,496) Pa yout Ra ti o (%) 49.7% 49.8% 49.8% 49.8%}

^{Gross Profit 19,428 19,869 20,879 21,924 DER 51.0% 52.0% 52.0% 52.0%}

^{Gross Margin 29.1% 28.3% 28.3% 28.3% Net Gea ri ng 44.4% 47.8% 56.0% 59.7%}

^{Opera ti ng Expens es (11,053) (11,475) (12,045) (12,654) LT Debt to Equi ty 27.1% 24.8% 25.3% 25.3%}

^{EBIT 8,376 8,393 8,833 9,270 Ca pi ta l i za ti on Ra ti o 33.8% 34.2% 34.2% 34.2%}

^{EBIT Margin 12.5% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% Equi ty Ra ti o 53.5% 53.2% 53.6% 53.8%}

^{Depreci a ti on 2,239 2,135 2,767 3,098 Debt Ra ti o 27.3% 27.7% 27.9% 28.0%}

^{EBITDA 10,614 10,528 11,600 12,368 Fi na nci a l Levera ge 211.0% 181.2% 183.6% 182.0%}

^{EBITDA Margin 15.9% 15.0% 15.7% 16.0% Current Ra ti o 150.8% 150.3% 140.2% 131.9%}

^{Interes t Expens es (1,483) (1,396) (1,478) (1,569) Qui ck Ra ti o 93.5% 86.6% 76.4% 69.1%}

^{EBT 7,385 7,609 7,988 8,365 Ca s h Ra ti o 69.5% 63.3% 52.7% 45.4%}

^{Income Ta x (2,533) (2,513) (2,638) (2,762) Ca s h Convers i on Cycl e 63.3 66.9 67.0 67.0 Mi nori ty Interes t (708) (927) (977) (1,023) Pa r Va l ue (IDR) 100 100 100 100}

^{Net Profit 4,145 4,168 4,373 4,580 Tota l Sha res (mn) 8,780 8,780 8,780 8,780}

^{Growth (% y/y) 39.6% 0.6% 4.9% 4.7% Sha re Pri ce (IDR) 7,925 7,625 6,900 6,900}

^{Net Profit Margin 6.2% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn) 69.6 67.0 60.6 60.6 In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E}

^{Ca s h 13,362 13,690 11,763 10,681 Pri ce /Ea rni ngs 16.8x 16.1x 13.9x 13.2x}

^{Recei va bl es 4,617 5,040 5,292 5,559 Pri ce /Book Va l ue 1.6x 1.4x 1.2x 1.2x}

^{Inventori es 8,470 9,691 10,173 10,688 Pri ce/Sa l es 1.0x 1.0x 0.8x 0.8x}

^{Total Current Assets 28,985 32,515 31,311 31,011 PE/EPS Growth 0.4x 27.8x 2.8x 2.8x}

^{Net Fi xed As s ets 35,095 39,476 43,959 48,477 EV/EBITDA 9.6x 9.7x 8.5x 8.2x}

^{Other Non Current As s ets 18,094 15,949 16,217 16,083 EV/EBIT 12.2x 12.1x 11.2x 10.9x}

^{Total Assets 82,175 87,939 91,487 95,571 EV (IDR bn) 101,918 101,795 98,551 100,883}

^{Pa ya bl es 3,538 4,076 4,269 4,490 Sa l es CAGR (3-Yr) 6.2% 3.3% 4.8% 5.1%}

^{ST Ba nk Loa n 10,534 12,713 13,112 13,754 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) 18.3% 1.9% 13.8% 3.4%}

^{Other Current Liab. 5,147 4,849 4,948 5,273 Ba s i c EPS (IDR) 472 475 498 522}

^{LT Debt 11,888 11,605 12,401 13,008 Di l uted EPS (IDR) 472 475 498 522}

^{Other Non Current Li a b. 7,126 7,940 7,704 7,590 BVPS (IDR) 5,004 5,325 5,587 5,860}

^{Total Liabilities 38,233 41,183 42,433 44,115 Sa l es PS (IDR) 7,602 7,994 8,394 8,817}

^{Shareholders' Equity 43,941 46,757 49,054 51,456 DPS (IDR) 168 235 236 248}

^{In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E}

^{Net Income 4,145 4,168 4,373 4,580 DCF (IDR bn)}

^{Deprec & Amorti za ti on 2,239 2,135 2,767 3,098 NOPAT 5,503 5,621 5,917 6,209}

^{Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l 792 205 (431) (236) +Depr./Amor. 2,239 2,135 2,767 3,098}

^{CFO 7,176 6,508 6,710 7,442 -CAPEX (3,121) (6,823) (7,250) (7,616)}

^{Ca pex (3,121) (6,823) (7,250) (7,616) -Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p. 792 205 (431) (236)}

^{CFI (963) (6,058) (7,755) (7,596) (Unl evered) FCFF 5,413 1,137 1,003 1,455}

^{Di vi dends Pa i d (1,475) (2,063) (2,076) (2,178) WACC}

^{Net Borrowi ng (PMT) (3,957) 2,404 1,195 1,249 Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.) 7.7% 5.3% 5.7% 5.7%}

^{CFF (5,927) (122) (881) (929) Cos t of Equi ty (COE) 9.9% 11.1% 9.6% 9.6%}

^{Net Changes in Cash 286 328 (1,927) (1,083) WACC (%) 9.4% 9.5% 8.5% 8.4% RIM Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%) -0.3% -1.6% -0.3% -0.3% Res i dua l Income (IDR bn) (137) (689) (131) (146)}

^{By Geography % Shareholders % Equi ty Cha rge 4,282 4,857 4,504 4,726}

^{Seychel l es 81.9 Fi rs t Pa ci fi c Comp. Ltd. 50.1 EVA Uni ted Sta tes 10.6 Va ngua rd Group 1.8 Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn) 70,727 66,364 71,074 74,567 Luxembourg 2.0 Di mens i ona l Fund 1.8 ROIC-WACC (%) -1.6% -1.1% -0.2% -0.1% Irel a nd 1.2 Bl a ckrock 1.7 EVA (IDR mn) (1,139) (702) (111) (85)}

  OWNERSHIP PROFITABILITY & STABILITY _{April 24, 2018 Dec 2018}

  ^{Analyst: Joni Wintarja} CASH FLOW STATEMENT DCF, RIM & EVA